2025 Q3 -tulosraportti
142 päivää sittenTarjoustasot
Euronext Growth Oslo
Määrä
Osto
-
Myynti
Määrä
-
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | - | - | ||
| 1 168 | - | - | ||
| 1 500 | - | - | ||
| 1 000 | - | - | ||
| 2 | - | - |
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 22.4. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 19.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 8.9.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 20.5.2025 | ||
2024 Q4 -tulosraportti 14.5.2025 | ||
2024 Q3 -tulosraportti 12.11.2024 |
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
Kirjaudu
·4 t sittenEnergeia AS: The County Governor upholds the decision regarding the new cultivation permit at Store Nøkleberg Oslo, April 10, 2026 Energeia AS, or ("the Company") reported on June 23, 2025, that the municipal council in Østre Toten had decided to permit the new cultivation of the area at Store Nøkleberg solar power plant in accordance with the application from Energeia Store Nøkleberg AS. The municipality's decision was later appealed to the County Governor, who has now issued its assessment of the appeal. The County Governor confirms that permission is granted to cultivate an area of approximately 420 decares as applied for. This decision is final and cannot be appealed. Contact person: Managing Director, Jarl Egil Markussen, e-mail: jarl@energeia.no and mobile: +47 480 23 214 This information is subject to disclosure requirements in accordance with Continuing obligations and the Securities Trading Act § 5-12.
·3 päivää sittenThis stock is very cheap but it's completely dead, impossible to buy more or sell without moving the price. Traded 1800kr today. Never seen that before in a stock.·1 päivä sittenBaretap12: I note that on several stocks you often write a lot negatively, only to shortly thereafter delete negative comments and then post positive comments, e.g., recently about Terranor. Are you trying to influence the price with negative comments so that you can buy in cheaper, and then post positive comments to influence the price upwards? There are rules that do not allow such market manipulation, and the Financial Supervisory Authority can impose fines for this. Attempts at market manipulation become extra clear when it concerns illiquid shares where you suddenly change your opinion without any fundamental reasons.- ·31.3.anything new?
·31.3.Read a new report from DNV about all the current issues in oil and gas giving a boost to investments and development towards renewable energy sources, but I don't know if there's any direct connection to the movements here. 
·27.3.Seval Skog is approved by SPV for construction. Each solar power plant is registered with a separate AS (special purpose vehicle), with its own board, which is 51% owned by Energeia and 49% by Eidsiva. This means that the Daglig leder in Energeia, who is chairman of the board of Seval Skog AS, and Eidsiva's board member, decide on the development, as long as we in the rest of the shareholder community vote for it. I would raise my eyebrows if investors in energeia do not vote for it. This will be good! Store Nökleberg has a very simple grid connection, and can therefore be commissioned within a few months. It can still become our first solar park, if the concession comes soon. Otherwise, Seval Skog will be connected in 2027, as I understand.- ·25.3.This AI analysis has passed through the hands of several Energeia shareholders, with our subjective input. I do not believe AI provides good investment analyses, but we have guided so that this is only the framework that is AI. We can reasonably vouch for the significant calculations and conclusions being worth considering: Solgrid pipeline and status Solgrid now has a real pipeline of 157.7 MW (firm/advanced, mainly Norway). Several projects have been withdrawn or sold (e.g., 37.5 MWp in Sweden to Uniper May 2025). Obligo owns ~90 % of Solgrid after the acquisition in October 2025. Merger discussions are live (Energeia's board received a proposal February 2026). The combined pipeline with Energeia will be ~620.7 MW gross – a strong Norwegian solar platform. 2. Full DCF on Seval Skog (46 MWdc – flagship) Assumptions (conservative, calibrated to the company's LCOE and 30-year data): CAPEX: 312 MNOK (year 0) Annual production: 53.5 GWh Opex: 0.058 NOK/kWh WACC: 8 % Lifespan: 30 years, 22 % tax BESS (6 MW/12 MWh): +30 % extra NPV via arbitrage, peak shaving and grid services (FCR/aFRR) DCF results (NPV in MNOK, pre-BESS vs. with BESS): Scenario (long-term real price) EUR/MWh NOK/kWh Annual EBITDA (MNOK) NPV Seval Skog (MNOK) NPV + BESS-upside (MNOK) Approx. equity IRR Base (low) 60 0.70 34.5 +16.3 +21.2 9–10 % Mid (realistic) 80 0.94 47.0 +126.2 +164.1 14–15 % High (volatility/arbitrage) 100 1.17 59.5 +236.2 +307.1 18–20 % At the company's original base (~43–50 EUR/MWh), NPV is near break-even after financing. Higher prices + BESS provide strong upside (structurally higher Nordic power price + arbitrage). 3. Netherlands plant (Drachtsterweg 12.1 MW) – 2022-scenario Production: ~11–11.5 GWh/year (H1 2025: 6 457 MWh, +4.6 % above budget). PPA/CfD: Floor €90/MWh + full market price when spot >90 EUR/MWh (as in the 2022 model). Dutch spot is supported by high TTF gas volatility (often >90 EUR/MWh). Annualized EBITDA: 1.8–2.5 MNOK. Floor value: 18–22 MNOK (8–10x EBITDA for operational solar). This provides stable cash flow and covers parts of the group's burn. 4. Fair value standalone Energeia (asset-based NAV + DCF, updated) New adjustment (add-on): Bolstadmarka (97 MW) and Hjartdal/Ålamoen (~103 MW DC) now have a feasibility study program + grid capacity confirmed → moved to «advanced development». Success probability increases to 75–80 % (+30–50 % premium). Updated risked EV (MNOK): Component Low Mid (realistic) High (power price + BESS) Netherlands (operational) 18 20 22 Seval Skog (risked 70 %) 21 115 215 Bolstadmarka + Hjartdal (~200 MW, 75–80 % prob.) 120 250 380 Other pipeline (~263 MW, 50–60 % prob.) 80 180 280 Total risked EV 239 565 897 Minus net debt / overhead -50 -60 -70 Fair equity value 189 505 827 Per share (9 306 589 shares) 20.3 NOK 54.3 NOK 88.9 NOK Current market cap ~72 MNOK (share price ~7.74 NOK) → Energeia trades at 8–14 % of fair standalone value. Mid-scenario (505 MNOK / 54.3 NOK per share) is most realistic at 80 EUR/MWh + BESS. Bolstadmarka/Hjartdal alone contributes ~130–250 MNOK extra risked value (add-on effect). 4b. Fair value standalone Solgrid (similar methodology, adjusted) Solgrid's pipeline has been corrected to 157.7 MW. No agrivoltaics/BESS focus and no operational production → lower premium than Energeia. Assumptions: Developer premium 0.4–1.0 MNOK/MW. Success probability 55–70 %. Risked EV Solgrid (MNOK): Scenario Developer premium Risked pipeline value Fair equity value (after overhead) Low 0.4 MNOK/MW 63 40–50 Mid (realistic) 0.7 MNOK/MW 110 80–95 High 1.0 MNOK/MW 158 120–140 Fair value Solgrid standalone: ~80–95 MNOK (mid). Lower than Energeia due to less differentiation and fewer de-risked milestones. 5. Merger value (Energeia + Solgrid) + ownership structure Combined fair EV (standalone + 20–30 % scale synergy): 650–1 100 MNOK. Energeia contributes ~70–75 % of the value (larger/more advanced pipeline + operational asset + BESS). Synergies: Agrivoltaics (Energeia) + construction/license experience (Solgrid) + Obligo backstop → faster FID and lower WACC. Probable structure: Share swap. Post-merger ownership structure (estimated, fair ratio): Obligo: 55–65 % (35–40 % in Energeia + 90 % in Solgrid) Eidsiva Vekst: 15–20 % Minorities/retail: 15–25 % Founder: 3–5 % Advantages: Scale >600 MW, better capital access, reduced dilution risk. Risk for minorities: Obligo conflict – requires independent fairness opinion and protection.·25.3.Overall conclusion The new milestones at Bolstadmarka (97 MW) and Hjartdal (~103 MW) raise Energeia's standalone fair value to 505 MNOK / 54.3 NOK per share (mid-scenario, add-on effect included). Solgrid alone is worth 80–95 MNOK. Merger is a highly probable catalyst and can provide 2–4× upside at a fair ratio. Energeia is still trading at a large discount (8–14 % of fair value). Make-or-break: Seval Skog FID (312 MNOK CAPEX) + financing structure. Catalysts for the next 6–12 months: Seval FID + PPA + merger terms + Q1 2026 financial results + several NVE concessions.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti
142 päivää sittenUutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
Kirjaudu
- ·4 t sittenEnergeia AS: The County Governor upholds the decision regarding the new cultivation permit at Store Nøkleberg Oslo, April 10, 2026 Energeia AS, or ("the Company") reported on June 23, 2025, that the municipal council in Østre Toten had decided to permit the new cultivation of the area at Store Nøkleberg solar power plant in accordance with the application from Energeia Store Nøkleberg AS. The municipality's decision was later appealed to the County Governor, who has now issued its assessment of the appeal. The County Governor confirms that permission is granted to cultivate an area of approximately 420 decares as applied for. This decision is final and cannot be appealed. Contact person: Managing Director, Jarl Egil Markussen, e-mail: jarl@energeia.no and mobile: +47 480 23 214 This information is subject to disclosure requirements in accordance with Continuing obligations and the Securities Trading Act § 5-12.
- ·3 päivää sittenThis stock is very cheap but it's completely dead, impossible to buy more or sell without moving the price. Traded 1800kr today. Never seen that before in a stock.·1 päivä sittenBaretap12: I note that on several stocks you often write a lot negatively, only to shortly thereafter delete negative comments and then post positive comments, e.g., recently about Terranor. Are you trying to influence the price with negative comments so that you can buy in cheaper, and then post positive comments to influence the price upwards? There are rules that do not allow such market manipulation, and the Financial Supervisory Authority can impose fines for this. Attempts at market manipulation become extra clear when it concerns illiquid shares where you suddenly change your opinion without any fundamental reasons.
- ·31.3.anything new?·31.3.Read a new report from DNV about all the current issues in oil and gas giving a boost to investments and development towards renewable energy sources, but I don't know if there's any direct connection to the movements here.
- ·27.3.Seval Skog is approved by SPV for construction. Each solar power plant is registered with a separate AS (special purpose vehicle), with its own board, which is 51% owned by Energeia and 49% by Eidsiva. This means that the Daglig leder in Energeia, who is chairman of the board of Seval Skog AS, and Eidsiva's board member, decide on the development, as long as we in the rest of the shareholder community vote for it. I would raise my eyebrows if investors in energeia do not vote for it. This will be good! Store Nökleberg has a very simple grid connection, and can therefore be commissioned within a few months. It can still become our first solar park, if the concession comes soon. Otherwise, Seval Skog will be connected in 2027, as I understand.
- ·25.3.This AI analysis has passed through the hands of several Energeia shareholders, with our subjective input. I do not believe AI provides good investment analyses, but we have guided so that this is only the framework that is AI. We can reasonably vouch for the significant calculations and conclusions being worth considering: Solgrid pipeline and status Solgrid now has a real pipeline of 157.7 MW (firm/advanced, mainly Norway). Several projects have been withdrawn or sold (e.g., 37.5 MWp in Sweden to Uniper May 2025). Obligo owns ~90 % of Solgrid after the acquisition in October 2025. Merger discussions are live (Energeia's board received a proposal February 2026). The combined pipeline with Energeia will be ~620.7 MW gross – a strong Norwegian solar platform. 2. Full DCF on Seval Skog (46 MWdc – flagship) Assumptions (conservative, calibrated to the company's LCOE and 30-year data): CAPEX: 312 MNOK (year 0) Annual production: 53.5 GWh Opex: 0.058 NOK/kWh WACC: 8 % Lifespan: 30 years, 22 % tax BESS (6 MW/12 MWh): +30 % extra NPV via arbitrage, peak shaving and grid services (FCR/aFRR) DCF results (NPV in MNOK, pre-BESS vs. with BESS): Scenario (long-term real price) EUR/MWh NOK/kWh Annual EBITDA (MNOK) NPV Seval Skog (MNOK) NPV + BESS-upside (MNOK) Approx. equity IRR Base (low) 60 0.70 34.5 +16.3 +21.2 9–10 % Mid (realistic) 80 0.94 47.0 +126.2 +164.1 14–15 % High (volatility/arbitrage) 100 1.17 59.5 +236.2 +307.1 18–20 % At the company's original base (~43–50 EUR/MWh), NPV is near break-even after financing. Higher prices + BESS provide strong upside (structurally higher Nordic power price + arbitrage). 3. Netherlands plant (Drachtsterweg 12.1 MW) – 2022-scenario Production: ~11–11.5 GWh/year (H1 2025: 6 457 MWh, +4.6 % above budget). PPA/CfD: Floor €90/MWh + full market price when spot >90 EUR/MWh (as in the 2022 model). Dutch spot is supported by high TTF gas volatility (often >90 EUR/MWh). Annualized EBITDA: 1.8–2.5 MNOK. Floor value: 18–22 MNOK (8–10x EBITDA for operational solar). This provides stable cash flow and covers parts of the group's burn. 4. Fair value standalone Energeia (asset-based NAV + DCF, updated) New adjustment (add-on): Bolstadmarka (97 MW) and Hjartdal/Ålamoen (~103 MW DC) now have a feasibility study program + grid capacity confirmed → moved to «advanced development». Success probability increases to 75–80 % (+30–50 % premium). Updated risked EV (MNOK): Component Low Mid (realistic) High (power price + BESS) Netherlands (operational) 18 20 22 Seval Skog (risked 70 %) 21 115 215 Bolstadmarka + Hjartdal (~200 MW, 75–80 % prob.) 120 250 380 Other pipeline (~263 MW, 50–60 % prob.) 80 180 280 Total risked EV 239 565 897 Minus net debt / overhead -50 -60 -70 Fair equity value 189 505 827 Per share (9 306 589 shares) 20.3 NOK 54.3 NOK 88.9 NOK Current market cap ~72 MNOK (share price ~7.74 NOK) → Energeia trades at 8–14 % of fair standalone value. Mid-scenario (505 MNOK / 54.3 NOK per share) is most realistic at 80 EUR/MWh + BESS. Bolstadmarka/Hjartdal alone contributes ~130–250 MNOK extra risked value (add-on effect). 4b. Fair value standalone Solgrid (similar methodology, adjusted) Solgrid's pipeline has been corrected to 157.7 MW. No agrivoltaics/BESS focus and no operational production → lower premium than Energeia. Assumptions: Developer premium 0.4–1.0 MNOK/MW. Success probability 55–70 %. Risked EV Solgrid (MNOK): Scenario Developer premium Risked pipeline value Fair equity value (after overhead) Low 0.4 MNOK/MW 63 40–50 Mid (realistic) 0.7 MNOK/MW 110 80–95 High 1.0 MNOK/MW 158 120–140 Fair value Solgrid standalone: ~80–95 MNOK (mid). Lower than Energeia due to less differentiation and fewer de-risked milestones. 5. Merger value (Energeia + Solgrid) + ownership structure Combined fair EV (standalone + 20–30 % scale synergy): 650–1 100 MNOK. Energeia contributes ~70–75 % of the value (larger/more advanced pipeline + operational asset + BESS). Synergies: Agrivoltaics (Energeia) + construction/license experience (Solgrid) + Obligo backstop → faster FID and lower WACC. Probable structure: Share swap. Post-merger ownership structure (estimated, fair ratio): Obligo: 55–65 % (35–40 % in Energeia + 90 % in Solgrid) Eidsiva Vekst: 15–20 % Minorities/retail: 15–25 % Founder: 3–5 % Advantages: Scale >600 MW, better capital access, reduced dilution risk. Risk for minorities: Obligo conflict – requires independent fairness opinion and protection.·25.3.Overall conclusion The new milestones at Bolstadmarka (97 MW) and Hjartdal (~103 MW) raise Energeia's standalone fair value to 505 MNOK / 54.3 NOK per share (mid-scenario, add-on effect included). Solgrid alone is worth 80–95 MNOK. Merger is a highly probable catalyst and can provide 2–4× upside at a fair ratio. Energeia is still trading at a large discount (8–14 % of fair value). Make-or-break: Seval Skog FID (312 MNOK CAPEX) + financing structure. Catalysts for the next 6–12 months: Seval FID + PPA + merger terms + Q1 2026 financial results + several NVE concessions.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Euronext Growth Oslo
Määrä
Osto
-
Myynti
Määrä
-
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | - | - | ||
| 1 168 | - | - | ||
| 1 500 | - | - | ||
| 1 000 | - | - | ||
| 2 | - | - |
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 22.4. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 19.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 8.9.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 20.5.2025 | ||
2024 Q4 -tulosraportti 14.5.2025 | ||
2024 Q3 -tulosraportti 12.11.2024 |
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti
142 päivää sittenUutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 22.4. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 19.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 8.9.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 20.5.2025 | ||
2024 Q4 -tulosraportti 14.5.2025 | ||
2024 Q3 -tulosraportti 12.11.2024 |
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
Kirjaudu
- ·4 t sittenEnergeia AS: The County Governor upholds the decision regarding the new cultivation permit at Store Nøkleberg Oslo, April 10, 2026 Energeia AS, or ("the Company") reported on June 23, 2025, that the municipal council in Østre Toten had decided to permit the new cultivation of the area at Store Nøkleberg solar power plant in accordance with the application from Energeia Store Nøkleberg AS. The municipality's decision was later appealed to the County Governor, who has now issued its assessment of the appeal. The County Governor confirms that permission is granted to cultivate an area of approximately 420 decares as applied for. This decision is final and cannot be appealed. Contact person: Managing Director, Jarl Egil Markussen, e-mail: jarl@energeia.no and mobile: +47 480 23 214 This information is subject to disclosure requirements in accordance with Continuing obligations and the Securities Trading Act § 5-12.
- ·3 päivää sittenThis stock is very cheap but it's completely dead, impossible to buy more or sell without moving the price. Traded 1800kr today. Never seen that before in a stock.·1 päivä sittenBaretap12: I note that on several stocks you often write a lot negatively, only to shortly thereafter delete negative comments and then post positive comments, e.g., recently about Terranor. Are you trying to influence the price with negative comments so that you can buy in cheaper, and then post positive comments to influence the price upwards? There are rules that do not allow such market manipulation, and the Financial Supervisory Authority can impose fines for this. Attempts at market manipulation become extra clear when it concerns illiquid shares where you suddenly change your opinion without any fundamental reasons.
- ·31.3.anything new?·31.3.Read a new report from DNV about all the current issues in oil and gas giving a boost to investments and development towards renewable energy sources, but I don't know if there's any direct connection to the movements here.
- ·27.3.Seval Skog is approved by SPV for construction. Each solar power plant is registered with a separate AS (special purpose vehicle), with its own board, which is 51% owned by Energeia and 49% by Eidsiva. This means that the Daglig leder in Energeia, who is chairman of the board of Seval Skog AS, and Eidsiva's board member, decide on the development, as long as we in the rest of the shareholder community vote for it. I would raise my eyebrows if investors in energeia do not vote for it. This will be good! Store Nökleberg has a very simple grid connection, and can therefore be commissioned within a few months. It can still become our first solar park, if the concession comes soon. Otherwise, Seval Skog will be connected in 2027, as I understand.
- ·25.3.This AI analysis has passed through the hands of several Energeia shareholders, with our subjective input. I do not believe AI provides good investment analyses, but we have guided so that this is only the framework that is AI. We can reasonably vouch for the significant calculations and conclusions being worth considering: Solgrid pipeline and status Solgrid now has a real pipeline of 157.7 MW (firm/advanced, mainly Norway). Several projects have been withdrawn or sold (e.g., 37.5 MWp in Sweden to Uniper May 2025). Obligo owns ~90 % of Solgrid after the acquisition in October 2025. Merger discussions are live (Energeia's board received a proposal February 2026). The combined pipeline with Energeia will be ~620.7 MW gross – a strong Norwegian solar platform. 2. Full DCF on Seval Skog (46 MWdc – flagship) Assumptions (conservative, calibrated to the company's LCOE and 30-year data): CAPEX: 312 MNOK (year 0) Annual production: 53.5 GWh Opex: 0.058 NOK/kWh WACC: 8 % Lifespan: 30 years, 22 % tax BESS (6 MW/12 MWh): +30 % extra NPV via arbitrage, peak shaving and grid services (FCR/aFRR) DCF results (NPV in MNOK, pre-BESS vs. with BESS): Scenario (long-term real price) EUR/MWh NOK/kWh Annual EBITDA (MNOK) NPV Seval Skog (MNOK) NPV + BESS-upside (MNOK) Approx. equity IRR Base (low) 60 0.70 34.5 +16.3 +21.2 9–10 % Mid (realistic) 80 0.94 47.0 +126.2 +164.1 14–15 % High (volatility/arbitrage) 100 1.17 59.5 +236.2 +307.1 18–20 % At the company's original base (~43–50 EUR/MWh), NPV is near break-even after financing. Higher prices + BESS provide strong upside (structurally higher Nordic power price + arbitrage). 3. Netherlands plant (Drachtsterweg 12.1 MW) – 2022-scenario Production: ~11–11.5 GWh/year (H1 2025: 6 457 MWh, +4.6 % above budget). PPA/CfD: Floor €90/MWh + full market price when spot >90 EUR/MWh (as in the 2022 model). Dutch spot is supported by high TTF gas volatility (often >90 EUR/MWh). Annualized EBITDA: 1.8–2.5 MNOK. Floor value: 18–22 MNOK (8–10x EBITDA for operational solar). This provides stable cash flow and covers parts of the group's burn. 4. Fair value standalone Energeia (asset-based NAV + DCF, updated) New adjustment (add-on): Bolstadmarka (97 MW) and Hjartdal/Ålamoen (~103 MW DC) now have a feasibility study program + grid capacity confirmed → moved to «advanced development». Success probability increases to 75–80 % (+30–50 % premium). Updated risked EV (MNOK): Component Low Mid (realistic) High (power price + BESS) Netherlands (operational) 18 20 22 Seval Skog (risked 70 %) 21 115 215 Bolstadmarka + Hjartdal (~200 MW, 75–80 % prob.) 120 250 380 Other pipeline (~263 MW, 50–60 % prob.) 80 180 280 Total risked EV 239 565 897 Minus net debt / overhead -50 -60 -70 Fair equity value 189 505 827 Per share (9 306 589 shares) 20.3 NOK 54.3 NOK 88.9 NOK Current market cap ~72 MNOK (share price ~7.74 NOK) → Energeia trades at 8–14 % of fair standalone value. Mid-scenario (505 MNOK / 54.3 NOK per share) is most realistic at 80 EUR/MWh + BESS. Bolstadmarka/Hjartdal alone contributes ~130–250 MNOK extra risked value (add-on effect). 4b. Fair value standalone Solgrid (similar methodology, adjusted) Solgrid's pipeline has been corrected to 157.7 MW. No agrivoltaics/BESS focus and no operational production → lower premium than Energeia. Assumptions: Developer premium 0.4–1.0 MNOK/MW. Success probability 55–70 %. Risked EV Solgrid (MNOK): Scenario Developer premium Risked pipeline value Fair equity value (after overhead) Low 0.4 MNOK/MW 63 40–50 Mid (realistic) 0.7 MNOK/MW 110 80–95 High 1.0 MNOK/MW 158 120–140 Fair value Solgrid standalone: ~80–95 MNOK (mid). Lower than Energeia due to less differentiation and fewer de-risked milestones. 5. Merger value (Energeia + Solgrid) + ownership structure Combined fair EV (standalone + 20–30 % scale synergy): 650–1 100 MNOK. Energeia contributes ~70–75 % of the value (larger/more advanced pipeline + operational asset + BESS). Synergies: Agrivoltaics (Energeia) + construction/license experience (Solgrid) + Obligo backstop → faster FID and lower WACC. Probable structure: Share swap. Post-merger ownership structure (estimated, fair ratio): Obligo: 55–65 % (35–40 % in Energeia + 90 % in Solgrid) Eidsiva Vekst: 15–20 % Minorities/retail: 15–25 % Founder: 3–5 % Advantages: Scale >600 MW, better capital access, reduced dilution risk. Risk for minorities: Obligo conflict – requires independent fairness opinion and protection.·25.3.Overall conclusion The new milestones at Bolstadmarka (97 MW) and Hjartdal (~103 MW) raise Energeia's standalone fair value to 505 MNOK / 54.3 NOK per share (mid-scenario, add-on effect included). Solgrid alone is worth 80–95 MNOK. Merger is a highly probable catalyst and can provide 2–4× upside at a fair ratio. Energeia is still trading at a large discount (8–14 % of fair value). Make-or-break: Seval Skog FID (312 MNOK CAPEX) + financing structure. Catalysts for the next 6–12 months: Seval FID + PPA + merger terms + Q1 2026 financial results + several NVE concessions.
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Euronext Growth Oslo
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