2026 Q1 -tulosraportti
9 päivää sitten11 min
1,00 SEK/osake
Viimeisin osinko
17,24%Tuotto/v
Tarjoustasot
First North Sweden
Määrä
Osto
1 334
Myynti
Määrä
10 000
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 130 | - | - | ||
| 4 000 | - | - | ||
| 467 | - | - | ||
| 1 000 | - | - | ||
| 10 | - | - |
Ylin
5,92VWAP
Alin
5,78VaihtoMäärä
0,2 42 525
VWAP
Ylin
5,92Alin
5,78VaihtoMäärä
0,2 42 525
Välittäjätilasto
Ostaneet eniten
| Välittäjä | Ostettu | Myyty | Netto | Sisäinen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anonyymi | 42 525 | 42 525 | 0 | 0 |
Myyneet eniten
| Välittäjä | Ostettu | Myyty | Netto | Sisäinen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anonyymi | 42 525 | 42 525 | 0 | 0 |
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 -tulosraportti | 1.4. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 -tulosraportti | 21.1. | |
| 2025 Q4 -tulosraportti | 22.10.2025 | |
| 2025 Q3 -tulosraportti | 25.6.2025 | |
| 2025 Q2 -tulosraportti | 2.4.2025 | |
| 2025 Q1 -tulosraportti | 22.1.2025 |
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
Kirjaudu
·26.1.🧱 How MAG can increase profitability with new cores I have been thinking about what MAG's two new cores and increased ARPDAU focus actually mean in practice – and tried to break it down into kronor and öre. Historically, MAG has needed around 13 MSEK per quarter in UA just to keep base revenue stable. With better retention and higher ARPDAU, the same core revenues can now gradually be driven with lower UA cost (in my model: 13 → 10 MSEK). This directly impacts the profitability of the base operations. The gross margin (game contribution 1) increases from 63 % to 68 %, which corresponds to approximately 12 MSEK improved profitability on an annual basis – meaning the same base revenues, but an increasingly profitable core. MAG has stated that two new cores will be introduced in early 2026. I have therefore phased in the improvement over the year (see image). Reflection: New cores strengthen ROAS and LTV even for Crozzle – but here I wanted to show how profitability increases in the base operations, the stable tail of millions of users.- ·21.1.MAG Q1 report – currency effect, strong ARPDAU and continued growth focus 🔥📈 MAG released its Q1 report today, and net sales came in lower than I (and many others) had expected. This is mainly due to two things: 1. Currency effect: USD/SEK has gone from 10.56 to 9.44, which directly impacts reported revenue in SEK. 2. UA investments: I had expected somewhat greater UA pressure already in Q1, which in turn could have driven up net sales somewhat more. Despite this, there is a lot of strength in the report – especially when zooming in on what actually drives the case long-term. ⸻ Strong underlying growth in USD 💵📈 MAG continues to grow strongly under the hood: • Revenue in USD: +18% YoY • ARPDAU: 9.3 cents – a truly impressive level • ARPDAU YoY: +35% Here, I think the market sometimes focuses too much on SEK outcomes and too little on the growth engine itself. ARPDAU at this level is exactly what you want to see when MAG builds a larger and more profitable product portfolio. ⸻ EBITDA down – but completely according to plan 🧠⚙️ EBITDA landed at 14 MSEK, which is lower than the previous year. But here it is important not to misinterpret: It is primarily an effect of increased UA investments, which is completely in line with the strategy. UA investments are a growth investment: They pressure EBITDA in the short term – but build future revenues, DAU and scalability. ⸻ Focus going forward – and why Q2 will be extra interesting 👀 MAG's “Looking ahead” is clear and offensive: ✅ Crozzle – global rollout 🌍 ✅ QuizDuel & Wordzee operations 🎮 ✅ New cores to raise ARPDAU 🚀 Particularly interesting is that QuizDuel broke records in December, which should have a positive effect in the next quarter (Q2). ⸻ My forecast for the rest of the year 📊 I have made a simple forecast model for the remaining quarters (see image). The big question for the full year will practically be: • How hard MAG chooses to push UA during the year? • How quickly do the investments pay back in revenue/ARPDAU? My calculation is of course just a way to frame it – but I hope it can help more people to make their own assessment of: ✅ possible revenue growth ✅ UA level ✅ EBITDA/EBIT development ⸻ How do you interpret Q1 – and what do you think about the UA pressure for the rest of the year? 🤔📈 (Personally, I see the report as stable, with clear progress in the right key figures – even if the SEK outcome was a bit weaker.) ⸻ 📌 Attaching my graphs for key figures and forecast below.
·22.1.Did a bit more research on how SensorTower arrives at its estimates, and a bit more guesswork than I imagined, so I'll have to take specific figures with a grain of salt... But it is claimed that they are relatively reliable for describing trends, so I still believe that Crozzle will contribute less to the top line this quarter than the previous quarter - also based on the fact that the UA boost in Q4 24/25 (Jun–Aug '25) is getting further and further away. Also supported by the fact that market share relative to main competitors is steadily decreasing: https://x.com/lejooon/status/1995428564196552839/photo/1·22.1.Thanks for the discussion, and otherwise good posts! Following from the sidelines for a little while after a long desert wandering, but ready to jump back in if Crozzle should show signs of life or positive trends around QuizDuel strengthen even more. Probably sold my last shares to Daniel Hasselberg today, so it's quite possible that you and he understand this better than me :) Big upside if they manage to pull it off with EV at just over 100 MSEK anyway. Good luck! - ·12.1.Welcome Magnus Kondrad – strong sign of strength in the shareholder list 👏🟣 In the latest update of the top 10 shareholder list in MAG, we see a really interesting change: ✅ Magnus Kondrad enters as a new top 10 shareholder with 640,000 shares (2.4%). It's not often we see a new private major shareholder take a place at this level – so I just want to say: Welcome in! 👋🙂 And yes – I would say congratulations on a very good purchase at really good levels. ⸻ 🔄 Fund out – private major shareholder in At the same time, we see that Carnegie Fonder Didner & Gerge has now disappeared from the top 10 (they had 576,589 shares as of 30/11). Exactly how much might remain to be sold, we naturally don't know – but regardless, it is clear that fund ownership has been significantly reduced, which for me is positive in the long run. ⸻ 👀 The sector as a whole I also note that ownership has decreased in several Swedish gaming companies recently. So it doesn't feel like something unique to MAG – but more like a sector phenomenon where capital has left and sentiment has been weak. Now that the reporting season is starting (for MAG on January 21), I believe that the turnaround can come quite quickly in companies that show stabilization and improvement in KPIs. ⸻ ⭐ Summary For me, this signals: 🟣 Important milestone: Carnegie/D&G out of top 10 🟣 Strength: new private major shareholder steps forward and takes a place in the top 10 🟣 Potential: once the fund sale is completely finished, it can provide a calmer ownership structure and better conditions for the share price to reflect fundamentals Now the report on January 21 will be extra exciting to follow. 🍿 ⸻ ❓ How do you interpret Magnus Kondrad's entry – do you see it as a “smart money” sign when fund ownership is decreasing at the same time? (Attaching images of the shareholder list as source.)
- ·11.12.2025D&G sells on – share price temporarily held back Looking at the ownership data from July → September → October → November, a very clear trend emerges: • July: 1.59 M shares • September: 1.22 M • October: 0.92 M • November: 0.58 M These are not minor adjustments — it is a structured and accelerating exit. After Didner & Gerge was integrated into Carnegie, the fund has chosen to exit its smaller small-cap positions, and MAG is one of them. It is a fund-technical effect, not a stance against the company. But in the short term, it has had a significant impact: D&G's sales have pressured the share price during a period of low trading volume and few buyers. The positive thing is that the fund, at the current pace, is likely completely out within 1–2 months. When such fund flows cease, the stock usually finds it easier to move, especially if news flow and momentum improve simultaneously. At the same time, we see that other owners continue to strengthen their positions: • Avanza Pension increases significantly 📈 • New buyers are visible outside the top-10 • The retail base is steadily broadening The combination of a pressured share price, low attention, and a large seller who will soon be done means that the valuation is currently low in relation to: • Crozzle-momentum • improved UA-efficiency • stronger autumn season • stable base portfolio The next major data point will be the Q1 report on January 21, a quarter that historically often shows the company's potential. If the report confirms the trend from autumn, sentiment could very well start to turn. ⸻ ❓ So what do you do now? Do you await the report for more evidence – or do you take the opportunity to buy while the fund sales are still keeping the price down?
- ·17.11.2025🏆 Part 5 – The Goal: from growth to dividend (2028 →) We have now reached the series' endpoint. After having reviewed the revenue engine, the UA model, the tail, and the cash flow, one question remains: 👉 What does all this lead to? The answer lies in the three images below. Together, they show MAG's three-year journey – and why the company is entering a completely new phase. ⸻ 💧 1. Cash flow becomes strong – growth starts to sustain itself The graph of operating cash flow shows the turning point: • 2026: low level • 2027: clear improvement • 2028: strong uplift • 2029: 124 MSEK in operating cash flow This is the effect of the entire machine: • UA → new players • The tail → recurring revenue • LTV & ROAS → self-financing growth When players themselves pay for growth, everything changes. That is exactly where MAG is now headed. ⸻ 🧩 2. The group level confirms the shift – the model holds all the way down to EBIT In the group overview, we see how the journey takes shape: • EBITDAC: 8 → 124 MSEK • EBITDA: 53 → 166 MSEK • EBIT: –11 → +106 MSEK • EBITDA margin: up to 27 % This is not a quarterly phenomenon. It is a structural change driven by: • the tail grows • the core portfolio continues to deliver • Crozzle contributes strongly • UA provides increasingly better payback When the tail becomes large enough, the result truly lifts. ⸻ 💵 3. The Valuation – what MAG could be worth in the next phase When we adjust for the growth cost (Game Contribution 2), we get a fairer picture of MAG's underlying profitability. In the valuation graph, we see: • UA-adjusted EBITDA: 62 → 95 → 167 → 242 → 240 MSEK • Multiples of 6–8.5x are conservative • Gives a reasonable share price of: 17 kr → 25 kr → 43 kr → 64 kr → 86 kr This is not wishful thinking. It is a consequence of the model when both tail and cash flow grow. When the market starts to value MAG based on cash flow and recurring revenue – that's when the re-pricing occurs. ⸻ 💰 4. Cash flow → dividends (2028 →) The model shows: • 2027: cash flow becomes stably positive • 2028: strong surplus even with continued UA • 2029: very strong cash flow This means: 2028 → room for dividend at the same level as the first: 1 kr/share. And thereafter: • 2029 → greater dividend capacity • 2030 → possibility for buybacks + regular dividend This is the endpoint in MAG's journey from: growth machine → cash machine → dividend machine. ⸻ 🌱 5. A final reflection on sustainable growth Affärsvärlden recently questioned MAG's ability to grow sustainably. It is a legitimate question – but the answer lies in the company's strategy. It's not just Crozzle. MAG has several titles in test with the same goal: • high retention • strong monetization • low churn • long tail • global potential Crozzle shows that the model works. The upcoming games show that the model can be repeated. That is why sustainable growth is not only possible – but built into MAG's long-term plan. ⸻ 📚 Missed a part? Here is the whole series 🔹 Intro – MAG's three-year journey 🔹 Part 1 – The Revenue Engine 🔹 Part 2 – UA Investments 🔹 Part 3 – The Tail 🔹 Part 4 – The Cash Flow 🔹 Part 5 – The Goal: from growth to dividend ⸻ ⭐ Thank you for following the series This was my most thoroughly elaborated MAG analysis to date. Hope it has created both clarity and curiosity for the journey that lies ahead of us.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
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Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti
9 päivää sitten11 min
1,00 SEK/osake
Viimeisin osinko
17,24%Tuotto/v
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Shareville
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Kirjaudu
- ·26.1.🧱 How MAG can increase profitability with new cores I have been thinking about what MAG's two new cores and increased ARPDAU focus actually mean in practice – and tried to break it down into kronor and öre. Historically, MAG has needed around 13 MSEK per quarter in UA just to keep base revenue stable. With better retention and higher ARPDAU, the same core revenues can now gradually be driven with lower UA cost (in my model: 13 → 10 MSEK). This directly impacts the profitability of the base operations. The gross margin (game contribution 1) increases from 63 % to 68 %, which corresponds to approximately 12 MSEK improved profitability on an annual basis – meaning the same base revenues, but an increasingly profitable core. MAG has stated that two new cores will be introduced in early 2026. I have therefore phased in the improvement over the year (see image). Reflection: New cores strengthen ROAS and LTV even for Crozzle – but here I wanted to show how profitability increases in the base operations, the stable tail of millions of users.
- ·21.1.MAG Q1 report – currency effect, strong ARPDAU and continued growth focus 🔥📈 MAG released its Q1 report today, and net sales came in lower than I (and many others) had expected. This is mainly due to two things: 1. Currency effect: USD/SEK has gone from 10.56 to 9.44, which directly impacts reported revenue in SEK. 2. UA investments: I had expected somewhat greater UA pressure already in Q1, which in turn could have driven up net sales somewhat more. Despite this, there is a lot of strength in the report – especially when zooming in on what actually drives the case long-term. ⸻ Strong underlying growth in USD 💵📈 MAG continues to grow strongly under the hood: • Revenue in USD: +18% YoY • ARPDAU: 9.3 cents – a truly impressive level • ARPDAU YoY: +35% Here, I think the market sometimes focuses too much on SEK outcomes and too little on the growth engine itself. ARPDAU at this level is exactly what you want to see when MAG builds a larger and more profitable product portfolio. ⸻ EBITDA down – but completely according to plan 🧠⚙️ EBITDA landed at 14 MSEK, which is lower than the previous year. But here it is important not to misinterpret: It is primarily an effect of increased UA investments, which is completely in line with the strategy. UA investments are a growth investment: They pressure EBITDA in the short term – but build future revenues, DAU and scalability. ⸻ Focus going forward – and why Q2 will be extra interesting 👀 MAG's “Looking ahead” is clear and offensive: ✅ Crozzle – global rollout 🌍 ✅ QuizDuel & Wordzee operations 🎮 ✅ New cores to raise ARPDAU 🚀 Particularly interesting is that QuizDuel broke records in December, which should have a positive effect in the next quarter (Q2). ⸻ My forecast for the rest of the year 📊 I have made a simple forecast model for the remaining quarters (see image). The big question for the full year will practically be: • How hard MAG chooses to push UA during the year? • How quickly do the investments pay back in revenue/ARPDAU? My calculation is of course just a way to frame it – but I hope it can help more people to make their own assessment of: ✅ possible revenue growth ✅ UA level ✅ EBITDA/EBIT development ⸻ How do you interpret Q1 – and what do you think about the UA pressure for the rest of the year? 🤔📈 (Personally, I see the report as stable, with clear progress in the right key figures – even if the SEK outcome was a bit weaker.) ⸻ 📌 Attaching my graphs for key figures and forecast below.·22.1.Did a bit more research on how SensorTower arrives at its estimates, and a bit more guesswork than I imagined, so I'll have to take specific figures with a grain of salt... But it is claimed that they are relatively reliable for describing trends, so I still believe that Crozzle will contribute less to the top line this quarter than the previous quarter - also based on the fact that the UA boost in Q4 24/25 (Jun–Aug '25) is getting further and further away. Also supported by the fact that market share relative to main competitors is steadily decreasing: https://x.com/lejooon/status/1995428564196552839/photo/1·22.1.Thanks for the discussion, and otherwise good posts! Following from the sidelines for a little while after a long desert wandering, but ready to jump back in if Crozzle should show signs of life or positive trends around QuizDuel strengthen even more. Probably sold my last shares to Daniel Hasselberg today, so it's quite possible that you and he understand this better than me :) Big upside if they manage to pull it off with EV at just over 100 MSEK anyway. Good luck!
- ·12.1.Welcome Magnus Kondrad – strong sign of strength in the shareholder list 👏🟣 In the latest update of the top 10 shareholder list in MAG, we see a really interesting change: ✅ Magnus Kondrad enters as a new top 10 shareholder with 640,000 shares (2.4%). It's not often we see a new private major shareholder take a place at this level – so I just want to say: Welcome in! 👋🙂 And yes – I would say congratulations on a very good purchase at really good levels. ⸻ 🔄 Fund out – private major shareholder in At the same time, we see that Carnegie Fonder Didner & Gerge has now disappeared from the top 10 (they had 576,589 shares as of 30/11). Exactly how much might remain to be sold, we naturally don't know – but regardless, it is clear that fund ownership has been significantly reduced, which for me is positive in the long run. ⸻ 👀 The sector as a whole I also note that ownership has decreased in several Swedish gaming companies recently. So it doesn't feel like something unique to MAG – but more like a sector phenomenon where capital has left and sentiment has been weak. Now that the reporting season is starting (for MAG on January 21), I believe that the turnaround can come quite quickly in companies that show stabilization and improvement in KPIs. ⸻ ⭐ Summary For me, this signals: 🟣 Important milestone: Carnegie/D&G out of top 10 🟣 Strength: new private major shareholder steps forward and takes a place in the top 10 🟣 Potential: once the fund sale is completely finished, it can provide a calmer ownership structure and better conditions for the share price to reflect fundamentals Now the report on January 21 will be extra exciting to follow. 🍿 ⸻ ❓ How do you interpret Magnus Kondrad's entry – do you see it as a “smart money” sign when fund ownership is decreasing at the same time? (Attaching images of the shareholder list as source.)
- ·11.12.2025D&G sells on – share price temporarily held back Looking at the ownership data from July → September → October → November, a very clear trend emerges: • July: 1.59 M shares • September: 1.22 M • October: 0.92 M • November: 0.58 M These are not minor adjustments — it is a structured and accelerating exit. After Didner & Gerge was integrated into Carnegie, the fund has chosen to exit its smaller small-cap positions, and MAG is one of them. It is a fund-technical effect, not a stance against the company. But in the short term, it has had a significant impact: D&G's sales have pressured the share price during a period of low trading volume and few buyers. The positive thing is that the fund, at the current pace, is likely completely out within 1–2 months. When such fund flows cease, the stock usually finds it easier to move, especially if news flow and momentum improve simultaneously. At the same time, we see that other owners continue to strengthen their positions: • Avanza Pension increases significantly 📈 • New buyers are visible outside the top-10 • The retail base is steadily broadening The combination of a pressured share price, low attention, and a large seller who will soon be done means that the valuation is currently low in relation to: • Crozzle-momentum • improved UA-efficiency • stronger autumn season • stable base portfolio The next major data point will be the Q1 report on January 21, a quarter that historically often shows the company's potential. If the report confirms the trend from autumn, sentiment could very well start to turn. ⸻ ❓ So what do you do now? Do you await the report for more evidence – or do you take the opportunity to buy while the fund sales are still keeping the price down?
- ·17.11.2025🏆 Part 5 – The Goal: from growth to dividend (2028 →) We have now reached the series' endpoint. After having reviewed the revenue engine, the UA model, the tail, and the cash flow, one question remains: 👉 What does all this lead to? The answer lies in the three images below. Together, they show MAG's three-year journey – and why the company is entering a completely new phase. ⸻ 💧 1. Cash flow becomes strong – growth starts to sustain itself The graph of operating cash flow shows the turning point: • 2026: low level • 2027: clear improvement • 2028: strong uplift • 2029: 124 MSEK in operating cash flow This is the effect of the entire machine: • UA → new players • The tail → recurring revenue • LTV & ROAS → self-financing growth When players themselves pay for growth, everything changes. That is exactly where MAG is now headed. ⸻ 🧩 2. The group level confirms the shift – the model holds all the way down to EBIT In the group overview, we see how the journey takes shape: • EBITDAC: 8 → 124 MSEK • EBITDA: 53 → 166 MSEK • EBIT: –11 → +106 MSEK • EBITDA margin: up to 27 % This is not a quarterly phenomenon. It is a structural change driven by: • the tail grows • the core portfolio continues to deliver • Crozzle contributes strongly • UA provides increasingly better payback When the tail becomes large enough, the result truly lifts. ⸻ 💵 3. The Valuation – what MAG could be worth in the next phase When we adjust for the growth cost (Game Contribution 2), we get a fairer picture of MAG's underlying profitability. In the valuation graph, we see: • UA-adjusted EBITDA: 62 → 95 → 167 → 242 → 240 MSEK • Multiples of 6–8.5x are conservative • Gives a reasonable share price of: 17 kr → 25 kr → 43 kr → 64 kr → 86 kr This is not wishful thinking. It is a consequence of the model when both tail and cash flow grow. When the market starts to value MAG based on cash flow and recurring revenue – that's when the re-pricing occurs. ⸻ 💰 4. Cash flow → dividends (2028 →) The model shows: • 2027: cash flow becomes stably positive • 2028: strong surplus even with continued UA • 2029: very strong cash flow This means: 2028 → room for dividend at the same level as the first: 1 kr/share. And thereafter: • 2029 → greater dividend capacity • 2030 → possibility for buybacks + regular dividend This is the endpoint in MAG's journey from: growth machine → cash machine → dividend machine. ⸻ 🌱 5. A final reflection on sustainable growth Affärsvärlden recently questioned MAG's ability to grow sustainably. It is a legitimate question – but the answer lies in the company's strategy. It's not just Crozzle. MAG has several titles in test with the same goal: • high retention • strong monetization • low churn • long tail • global potential Crozzle shows that the model works. The upcoming games show that the model can be repeated. That is why sustainable growth is not only possible – but built into MAG's long-term plan. ⸻ 📚 Missed a part? Here is the whole series 🔹 Intro – MAG's three-year journey 🔹 Part 1 – The Revenue Engine 🔹 Part 2 – UA Investments 🔹 Part 3 – The Tail 🔹 Part 4 – The Cash Flow 🔹 Part 5 – The Goal: from growth to dividend ⸻ ⭐ Thank you for following the series This was my most thoroughly elaborated MAG analysis to date. Hope it has created both clarity and curiosity for the journey that lies ahead of us.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
First North Sweden
Määrä
Osto
1 334
Myynti
Määrä
10 000
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 130 | - | - | ||
| 4 000 | - | - | ||
| 467 | - | - | ||
| 1 000 | - | - | ||
| 10 | - | - |
Ylin
5,92VWAP
Alin
5,78VaihtoMäärä
0,2 42 525
VWAP
Ylin
5,92Alin
5,78VaihtoMäärä
0,2 42 525
Välittäjätilasto
Ostaneet eniten
| Välittäjä | Ostettu | Myyty | Netto | Sisäinen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anonyymi | 42 525 | 42 525 | 0 | 0 |
Myyneet eniten
| Välittäjä | Ostettu | Myyty | Netto | Sisäinen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anonyymi | 42 525 | 42 525 | 0 | 0 |
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 -tulosraportti | 1.4. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 -tulosraportti | 21.1. | |
| 2025 Q4 -tulosraportti | 22.10.2025 | |
| 2025 Q3 -tulosraportti | 25.6.2025 | |
| 2025 Q2 -tulosraportti | 2.4.2025 | |
| 2025 Q1 -tulosraportti | 22.1.2025 |
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti
9 päivää sitten11 min
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 -tulosraportti | 1.4. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 -tulosraportti | 21.1. | |
| 2025 Q4 -tulosraportti | 22.10.2025 | |
| 2025 Q3 -tulosraportti | 25.6.2025 | |
| 2025 Q2 -tulosraportti | 2.4.2025 | |
| 2025 Q1 -tulosraportti | 22.1.2025 |
1,00 SEK/osake
Viimeisin osinko
17,24%Tuotto/v
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
Kirjaudu
- ·26.1.🧱 How MAG can increase profitability with new cores I have been thinking about what MAG's two new cores and increased ARPDAU focus actually mean in practice – and tried to break it down into kronor and öre. Historically, MAG has needed around 13 MSEK per quarter in UA just to keep base revenue stable. With better retention and higher ARPDAU, the same core revenues can now gradually be driven with lower UA cost (in my model: 13 → 10 MSEK). This directly impacts the profitability of the base operations. The gross margin (game contribution 1) increases from 63 % to 68 %, which corresponds to approximately 12 MSEK improved profitability on an annual basis – meaning the same base revenues, but an increasingly profitable core. MAG has stated that two new cores will be introduced in early 2026. I have therefore phased in the improvement over the year (see image). Reflection: New cores strengthen ROAS and LTV even for Crozzle – but here I wanted to show how profitability increases in the base operations, the stable tail of millions of users.
- ·21.1.MAG Q1 report – currency effect, strong ARPDAU and continued growth focus 🔥📈 MAG released its Q1 report today, and net sales came in lower than I (and many others) had expected. This is mainly due to two things: 1. Currency effect: USD/SEK has gone from 10.56 to 9.44, which directly impacts reported revenue in SEK. 2. UA investments: I had expected somewhat greater UA pressure already in Q1, which in turn could have driven up net sales somewhat more. Despite this, there is a lot of strength in the report – especially when zooming in on what actually drives the case long-term. ⸻ Strong underlying growth in USD 💵📈 MAG continues to grow strongly under the hood: • Revenue in USD: +18% YoY • ARPDAU: 9.3 cents – a truly impressive level • ARPDAU YoY: +35% Here, I think the market sometimes focuses too much on SEK outcomes and too little on the growth engine itself. ARPDAU at this level is exactly what you want to see when MAG builds a larger and more profitable product portfolio. ⸻ EBITDA down – but completely according to plan 🧠⚙️ EBITDA landed at 14 MSEK, which is lower than the previous year. But here it is important not to misinterpret: It is primarily an effect of increased UA investments, which is completely in line with the strategy. UA investments are a growth investment: They pressure EBITDA in the short term – but build future revenues, DAU and scalability. ⸻ Focus going forward – and why Q2 will be extra interesting 👀 MAG's “Looking ahead” is clear and offensive: ✅ Crozzle – global rollout 🌍 ✅ QuizDuel & Wordzee operations 🎮 ✅ New cores to raise ARPDAU 🚀 Particularly interesting is that QuizDuel broke records in December, which should have a positive effect in the next quarter (Q2). ⸻ My forecast for the rest of the year 📊 I have made a simple forecast model for the remaining quarters (see image). The big question for the full year will practically be: • How hard MAG chooses to push UA during the year? • How quickly do the investments pay back in revenue/ARPDAU? My calculation is of course just a way to frame it – but I hope it can help more people to make their own assessment of: ✅ possible revenue growth ✅ UA level ✅ EBITDA/EBIT development ⸻ How do you interpret Q1 – and what do you think about the UA pressure for the rest of the year? 🤔📈 (Personally, I see the report as stable, with clear progress in the right key figures – even if the SEK outcome was a bit weaker.) ⸻ 📌 Attaching my graphs for key figures and forecast below.·22.1.Did a bit more research on how SensorTower arrives at its estimates, and a bit more guesswork than I imagined, so I'll have to take specific figures with a grain of salt... But it is claimed that they are relatively reliable for describing trends, so I still believe that Crozzle will contribute less to the top line this quarter than the previous quarter - also based on the fact that the UA boost in Q4 24/25 (Jun–Aug '25) is getting further and further away. Also supported by the fact that market share relative to main competitors is steadily decreasing: https://x.com/lejooon/status/1995428564196552839/photo/1·22.1.Thanks for the discussion, and otherwise good posts! Following from the sidelines for a little while after a long desert wandering, but ready to jump back in if Crozzle should show signs of life or positive trends around QuizDuel strengthen even more. Probably sold my last shares to Daniel Hasselberg today, so it's quite possible that you and he understand this better than me :) Big upside if they manage to pull it off with EV at just over 100 MSEK anyway. Good luck!
- ·12.1.Welcome Magnus Kondrad – strong sign of strength in the shareholder list 👏🟣 In the latest update of the top 10 shareholder list in MAG, we see a really interesting change: ✅ Magnus Kondrad enters as a new top 10 shareholder with 640,000 shares (2.4%). It's not often we see a new private major shareholder take a place at this level – so I just want to say: Welcome in! 👋🙂 And yes – I would say congratulations on a very good purchase at really good levels. ⸻ 🔄 Fund out – private major shareholder in At the same time, we see that Carnegie Fonder Didner & Gerge has now disappeared from the top 10 (they had 576,589 shares as of 30/11). Exactly how much might remain to be sold, we naturally don't know – but regardless, it is clear that fund ownership has been significantly reduced, which for me is positive in the long run. ⸻ 👀 The sector as a whole I also note that ownership has decreased in several Swedish gaming companies recently. So it doesn't feel like something unique to MAG – but more like a sector phenomenon where capital has left and sentiment has been weak. Now that the reporting season is starting (for MAG on January 21), I believe that the turnaround can come quite quickly in companies that show stabilization and improvement in KPIs. ⸻ ⭐ Summary For me, this signals: 🟣 Important milestone: Carnegie/D&G out of top 10 🟣 Strength: new private major shareholder steps forward and takes a place in the top 10 🟣 Potential: once the fund sale is completely finished, it can provide a calmer ownership structure and better conditions for the share price to reflect fundamentals Now the report on January 21 will be extra exciting to follow. 🍿 ⸻ ❓ How do you interpret Magnus Kondrad's entry – do you see it as a “smart money” sign when fund ownership is decreasing at the same time? (Attaching images of the shareholder list as source.)
- ·11.12.2025D&G sells on – share price temporarily held back Looking at the ownership data from July → September → October → November, a very clear trend emerges: • July: 1.59 M shares • September: 1.22 M • October: 0.92 M • November: 0.58 M These are not minor adjustments — it is a structured and accelerating exit. After Didner & Gerge was integrated into Carnegie, the fund has chosen to exit its smaller small-cap positions, and MAG is one of them. It is a fund-technical effect, not a stance against the company. But in the short term, it has had a significant impact: D&G's sales have pressured the share price during a period of low trading volume and few buyers. The positive thing is that the fund, at the current pace, is likely completely out within 1–2 months. When such fund flows cease, the stock usually finds it easier to move, especially if news flow and momentum improve simultaneously. At the same time, we see that other owners continue to strengthen their positions: • Avanza Pension increases significantly 📈 • New buyers are visible outside the top-10 • The retail base is steadily broadening The combination of a pressured share price, low attention, and a large seller who will soon be done means that the valuation is currently low in relation to: • Crozzle-momentum • improved UA-efficiency • stronger autumn season • stable base portfolio The next major data point will be the Q1 report on January 21, a quarter that historically often shows the company's potential. If the report confirms the trend from autumn, sentiment could very well start to turn. ⸻ ❓ So what do you do now? Do you await the report for more evidence – or do you take the opportunity to buy while the fund sales are still keeping the price down?
- ·17.11.2025🏆 Part 5 – The Goal: from growth to dividend (2028 →) We have now reached the series' endpoint. After having reviewed the revenue engine, the UA model, the tail, and the cash flow, one question remains: 👉 What does all this lead to? The answer lies in the three images below. Together, they show MAG's three-year journey – and why the company is entering a completely new phase. ⸻ 💧 1. Cash flow becomes strong – growth starts to sustain itself The graph of operating cash flow shows the turning point: • 2026: low level • 2027: clear improvement • 2028: strong uplift • 2029: 124 MSEK in operating cash flow This is the effect of the entire machine: • UA → new players • The tail → recurring revenue • LTV & ROAS → self-financing growth When players themselves pay for growth, everything changes. That is exactly where MAG is now headed. ⸻ 🧩 2. The group level confirms the shift – the model holds all the way down to EBIT In the group overview, we see how the journey takes shape: • EBITDAC: 8 → 124 MSEK • EBITDA: 53 → 166 MSEK • EBIT: –11 → +106 MSEK • EBITDA margin: up to 27 % This is not a quarterly phenomenon. It is a structural change driven by: • the tail grows • the core portfolio continues to deliver • Crozzle contributes strongly • UA provides increasingly better payback When the tail becomes large enough, the result truly lifts. ⸻ 💵 3. The Valuation – what MAG could be worth in the next phase When we adjust for the growth cost (Game Contribution 2), we get a fairer picture of MAG's underlying profitability. In the valuation graph, we see: • UA-adjusted EBITDA: 62 → 95 → 167 → 242 → 240 MSEK • Multiples of 6–8.5x are conservative • Gives a reasonable share price of: 17 kr → 25 kr → 43 kr → 64 kr → 86 kr This is not wishful thinking. It is a consequence of the model when both tail and cash flow grow. When the market starts to value MAG based on cash flow and recurring revenue – that's when the re-pricing occurs. ⸻ 💰 4. Cash flow → dividends (2028 →) The model shows: • 2027: cash flow becomes stably positive • 2028: strong surplus even with continued UA • 2029: very strong cash flow This means: 2028 → room for dividend at the same level as the first: 1 kr/share. And thereafter: • 2029 → greater dividend capacity • 2030 → possibility for buybacks + regular dividend This is the endpoint in MAG's journey from: growth machine → cash machine → dividend machine. ⸻ 🌱 5. A final reflection on sustainable growth Affärsvärlden recently questioned MAG's ability to grow sustainably. It is a legitimate question – but the answer lies in the company's strategy. It's not just Crozzle. MAG has several titles in test with the same goal: • high retention • strong monetization • low churn • long tail • global potential Crozzle shows that the model works. The upcoming games show that the model can be repeated. That is why sustainable growth is not only possible – but built into MAG's long-term plan. ⸻ 📚 Missed a part? Here is the whole series 🔹 Intro – MAG's three-year journey 🔹 Part 1 – The Revenue Engine 🔹 Part 2 – UA Investments 🔹 Part 3 – The Tail 🔹 Part 4 – The Cash Flow 🔹 Part 5 – The Goal: from growth to dividend ⸻ ⭐ Thank you for following the series This was my most thoroughly elaborated MAG analysis to date. Hope it has created both clarity and curiosity for the journey that lies ahead of us.
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Tarjoustasot
First North Sweden
Määrä
Osto
1 334
Myynti
Määrä
10 000
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
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| 130 | - | - | ||
| 4 000 | - | - | ||
| 467 | - | - | ||
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| 10 | - | - |
Ylin
5,92VWAP
Alin
5,78VaihtoMäärä
0,2 42 525
VWAP
Ylin
5,92Alin
5,78VaihtoMäärä
0,2 42 525
Välittäjätilasto
Ostaneet eniten
| Välittäjä | Ostettu | Myyty | Netto | Sisäinen |
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| Anonyymi | 42 525 | 42 525 | 0 | 0 |
Myyneet eniten
| Välittäjä | Ostettu | Myyty | Netto | Sisäinen |
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| Anonyymi | 42 525 | 42 525 | 0 | 0 |