2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
86 päivää sitten15 min
1,00 SEK/osake
Viimeisin osinko
12,38%Tuotto/v
Tarjoustasot
First North Sweden
Määrä
Osto
195
Myynti
Määrä
2 239
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | - | - | ||
| 132 | - | - | ||
| 1 724 | - | - | ||
| 276 | - | - | ||
| 25 | - | - |
Ylin
8,04VWAP
Alin
7,74VaihtoMäärä
0,1 7 447
VWAP
Ylin
8,04Alin
7,74VaihtoMäärä
0,1 7 447
Välittäjätilasto
Ostaneet eniten
| Välittäjä | Ostettu | Myyty | Netto | Sisäinen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anonyymi | 7 447 | 7 447 | 0 | 0 |
Myyneet eniten
| Välittäjä | Ostettu | Myyty | Netto | Sisäinen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anonyymi | 7 447 | 7 447 | 0 | 0 |
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 -tulosraportti | 21.1. 5 päivää |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 -tulosraportti | 22.10.2025 | |
| 2025 Q3 -tulosraportti | 25.6.2025 | |
| 2025 Q2 -tulosraportti | 2.4.2025 | |
| 2025 Q1 -tulosraportti | 22.1.2025 | |
| 2024 Q4 -tulosraportti | 23.10.2024 |
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
Kirjaudu
·12.1.Welcome Magnus Kondrad – strong sign of strength in the shareholder list 👏🟣 In the latest update of the top 10 shareholder list in MAG, we see a really interesting change: ✅ Magnus Kondrad enters as a new top 10 shareholder with 640,000 shares (2.4%). It's not often we see a new private major shareholder take a place at this level – so I just want to say: Welcome in! 👋🙂 And yes – I would say congratulations on a very good purchase at really good levels. ⸻ 🔄 Fund out – private major shareholder in At the same time, we see that Carnegie Fonder Didner & Gerge has now disappeared from the top 10 (they had 576,589 shares as of 30/11). Exactly how much might remain to be sold, we naturally don't know – but regardless, it is clear that fund ownership has been significantly reduced, which for me is positive in the long run. ⸻ 👀 The sector as a whole I also note that ownership has decreased in several Swedish gaming companies recently. So it doesn't feel like something unique to MAG – but more like a sector phenomenon where capital has left and sentiment has been weak. Now that the reporting season is starting (for MAG on January 21), I believe that the turnaround can come quite quickly in companies that show stabilization and improvement in KPIs. ⸻ ⭐ Summary For me, this signals: 🟣 Important milestone: Carnegie/D&G out of top 10 🟣 Strength: new private major shareholder steps forward and takes a place in the top 10 🟣 Potential: once the fund sale is completely finished, it can provide a calmer ownership structure and better conditions for the share price to reflect fundamentals Now the report on January 21 will be extra exciting to follow. 🍿 ⸻ ❓ How do you interpret Magnus Kondrad's entry – do you see it as a “smart money” sign when fund ownership is decreasing at the same time? (Attaching images of the shareholder list as source.)- ·11.12.2025D&G sells on – share price temporarily held back Looking at the ownership data from July → September → October → November, a very clear trend emerges: • July: 1.59 M shares • September: 1.22 M • October: 0.92 M • November: 0.58 M These are not minor adjustments — it is a structured and accelerating exit. After Didner & Gerge was integrated into Carnegie, the fund has chosen to exit its smaller small-cap positions, and MAG is one of them. It is a fund-technical effect, not a stance against the company. But in the short term, it has had a significant impact: D&G's sales have pressured the share price during a period of low trading volume and few buyers. The positive thing is that the fund, at the current pace, is likely completely out within 1–2 months. When such fund flows cease, the stock usually finds it easier to move, especially if news flow and momentum improve simultaneously. At the same time, we see that other owners continue to strengthen their positions: • Avanza Pension increases significantly 📈 • New buyers are visible outside the top-10 • The retail base is steadily broadening The combination of a pressured share price, low attention, and a large seller who will soon be done means that the valuation is currently low in relation to: • Crozzle-momentum • improved UA-efficiency • stronger autumn season • stable base portfolio The next major data point will be the Q1 report on January 21, a quarter that historically often shows the company's potential. If the report confirms the trend from autumn, sentiment could very well start to turn. ⸻ ❓ So what do you do now? Do you await the report for more evidence – or do you take the opportunity to buy while the fund sales are still keeping the price down?
- ·17.11.2025🏆 Part 5 – The Goal: from growth to dividend (2028 →) We have now reached the series' endpoint. After having reviewed the revenue engine, the UA model, the tail, and the cash flow, one question remains: 👉 What does all this lead to? The answer lies in the three images below. Together, they show MAG's three-year journey – and why the company is entering a completely new phase. ⸻ 💧 1. Cash flow becomes strong – growth starts to sustain itself The graph of operating cash flow shows the turning point: • 2026: low level • 2027: clear improvement • 2028: strong uplift • 2029: 124 MSEK in operating cash flow This is the effect of the entire machine: • UA → new players • The tail → recurring revenue • LTV & ROAS → self-financing growth When players themselves pay for growth, everything changes. That is exactly where MAG is now headed. ⸻ 🧩 2. The group level confirms the shift – the model holds all the way down to EBIT In the group overview, we see how the journey takes shape: • EBITDAC: 8 → 124 MSEK • EBITDA: 53 → 166 MSEK • EBIT: –11 → +106 MSEK • EBITDA margin: up to 27 % This is not a quarterly phenomenon. It is a structural change driven by: • the tail grows • the core portfolio continues to deliver • Crozzle contributes strongly • UA provides increasingly better payback When the tail becomes large enough, the result truly lifts. ⸻ 💵 3. The Valuation – what MAG could be worth in the next phase When we adjust for the growth cost (Game Contribution 2), we get a fairer picture of MAG's underlying profitability. In the valuation graph, we see: • UA-adjusted EBITDA: 62 → 95 → 167 → 242 → 240 MSEK • Multiples of 6–8.5x are conservative • Gives a reasonable share price of: 17 kr → 25 kr → 43 kr → 64 kr → 86 kr This is not wishful thinking. It is a consequence of the model when both tail and cash flow grow. When the market starts to value MAG based on cash flow and recurring revenue – that's when the re-pricing occurs. ⸻ 💰 4. Cash flow → dividends (2028 →) The model shows: • 2027: cash flow becomes stably positive • 2028: strong surplus even with continued UA • 2029: very strong cash flow This means: 2028 → room for dividend at the same level as the first: 1 kr/share. And thereafter: • 2029 → greater dividend capacity • 2030 → possibility for buybacks + regular dividend This is the endpoint in MAG's journey from: growth machine → cash machine → dividend machine. ⸻ 🌱 5. A final reflection on sustainable growth Affärsvärlden recently questioned MAG's ability to grow sustainably. It is a legitimate question – but the answer lies in the company's strategy. It's not just Crozzle. MAG has several titles in test with the same goal: • high retention • strong monetization • low churn • long tail • global potential Crozzle shows that the model works. The upcoming games show that the model can be repeated. That is why sustainable growth is not only possible – but built into MAG's long-term plan. ⸻ 📚 Missed a part? Here is the whole series 🔹 Intro – MAG's three-year journey 🔹 Part 1 – The Revenue Engine 🔹 Part 2 – UA Investments 🔹 Part 3 – The Tail 🔹 Part 4 – The Cash Flow 🔹 Part 5 – The Goal: from growth to dividend ⸻ ⭐ Thank you for following the series This was my most thoroughly elaborated MAG analysis to date. Hope it has created both clarity and curiosity for the journey that lies ahead of us.
- ·16.11.2025💧 Part 4 – Cash Flow: when growth starts to finance itself Most analyze MAG based on results, margins, and quarterly fluctuations. But the most important parameter in the entire model is cash flow. Because when a company reaches that point – that growth is financed by the players themselves – then everything changes. MAG is just entering that phase. ⸻ 🧩 1. From UA cost → long tail → cash flow MAG's business model boils down to three steps: 1️⃣ UA costs (Spelbidrag 2 becomes negative) 2️⃣ The long tail is built (Spelbidrag 3 grows) 3️⃣ Cash flow rises (EBITDAC increases) It is extremely clear in the graph of operating cash flow: • 2026: almost nothing • 2027: starts to lift off • 2028: sharply up • 2029: 124 MSEK in operating cash flow UA is therefore not a cost – but an investment in future cash flow. ⸻ 📈 2. Why cash flow explodes after 2027 It's about the long tail. The revenue graph shows that the Crozzle-long tail grows every year. When the long tail becomes large, three things happen: • the margin lifts • gross profit rises • cash flow becomes positive even with high UA investments Therefore, EBITDAC goes from 8 → 124 MSEK in the model. MAG goes from “growth machine” to “cash machine”. ⸻ 💡 3. Growth becomes self-financed When every UA-krona doubles itself over 2–3 years, no external capital is needed. This is MAG's biggest advantage right now: • strong LTV • high ROAS • growing long tail • stable base portfolio Together, they enable MAG to grow without diluting shareholders – and still increase cash flow. ⸻ 💵 4. Cash Flow → Dividends In the model we see: • 2027: cash flow truly becomes positive • 2028: strong cash flow even with continued UA • 2029: really strong cash flow This means: 2028 → room for dividend with potential for a second dividend of 1 kr/share — same level as the first. This is not optimism. It is a logical consequence of a model where the long tail is large and growth finances itself. Part 4 thus shows the turning point: The growth machine becomes a cash machine – and the cash machine can become a dividend machine. ⸻ 📅 Part 5 comes tomorrow 🔜 The Goal: from growth to dividend (2028 →) The finale ties together the model, cash flow, and valuation.
- ·15.11.2025💎 Part 3 – The Tail: the value built in silence This is one of the series' most important parts. Because it is the tail that explains: • why UA is profitable • why 2028–2029 will be strong years • why cash flow is lifting • why the valuation should go up • why MAG's model is stable despite quarterly fluctuations Many underestimate the tail – but it is MAG's true goldmine. ⸻ 🌱 1. What is the tail – really? The tail is the revenue that continues to come long after the UA money is spent. When MAG acquires users in e.g. Q1, three things happen: 1️⃣ Revenue in Q1 (payback) 2️⃣ Revenue in Q2–Q4 from the same cohort 3️⃣ Ongoing revenue the year after (the tail) It is the tail that creates the long-term value. The tail is therefore: • stable • predictable • high-margin • recurring • and growing as cohorts grow ⸻ 📈 2. The “Revenue” image shows the entire mechanism In the graph, we see that revenues: • grow • broaden • are stabilized by a growing cohort • increase as the tail grows It's not just Crozzle. It's the entire portfolio that pulls: • Wordzee • QuizDuel • other stable titles • and upcoming new games with Crozzle key figures When a game reaches the right retention + ARPDAU → the tail is built automatically. ⸻ 🧩 3. The tail lifts all key figures simultaneously This is the beauty of it: When the tail grows, it affects: • Gross profit (less dependent on UA) • EBITDA (stronger margins) • EBIT (the model turns to profitability) • Operating cash flow (the real value) The tail is therefore: 💚 cash flow 💚 stability 💚 profitability 💚 valuation 💚 dividend capacity Everything is connected. ⸻ 🏗 4. Why the tail is MAG's big advantage compared to many competitors MAG has three key advantages: ✔ 1. Extremely strong retention in Crozzle This provides an exceptional tail curve. ✔ 2. Base portfolio with many long-lived games They are a tail in themselves. ✔ 3. New titles are built with the Crozzle model This is the most underestimated of all: MAG has several games in test that aim to replicate Crozzle's key figures. This means a multiple effect in the tail 2026–2029. ⸻ 💧 5. Therefore, operating cash flow lifts in Part 4 The tail is the reason for the big jump in cash flow: • 2026: UA build-up • 2027: return on previous UA • 2028: the tail takes over • 2029: the cash machine is activated It is the tail that makes: “MAG goes from growth machine to dividend machine.” The tail is therefore the bridge between Part 2 and Part 4. ⸻ 📅 Part 4 comes tomorrow 🔜 Cash flow: when growth starts to finance itself (Part 4 is one of the series' most powerful parts, visually and logically)
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
86 päivää sitten15 min
1,00 SEK/osake
Viimeisin osinko
12,38%Tuotto/v
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
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Kirjaudu
- ·12.1.Welcome Magnus Kondrad – strong sign of strength in the shareholder list 👏🟣 In the latest update of the top 10 shareholder list in MAG, we see a really interesting change: ✅ Magnus Kondrad enters as a new top 10 shareholder with 640,000 shares (2.4%). It's not often we see a new private major shareholder take a place at this level – so I just want to say: Welcome in! 👋🙂 And yes – I would say congratulations on a very good purchase at really good levels. ⸻ 🔄 Fund out – private major shareholder in At the same time, we see that Carnegie Fonder Didner & Gerge has now disappeared from the top 10 (they had 576,589 shares as of 30/11). Exactly how much might remain to be sold, we naturally don't know – but regardless, it is clear that fund ownership has been significantly reduced, which for me is positive in the long run. ⸻ 👀 The sector as a whole I also note that ownership has decreased in several Swedish gaming companies recently. So it doesn't feel like something unique to MAG – but more like a sector phenomenon where capital has left and sentiment has been weak. Now that the reporting season is starting (for MAG on January 21), I believe that the turnaround can come quite quickly in companies that show stabilization and improvement in KPIs. ⸻ ⭐ Summary For me, this signals: 🟣 Important milestone: Carnegie/D&G out of top 10 🟣 Strength: new private major shareholder steps forward and takes a place in the top 10 🟣 Potential: once the fund sale is completely finished, it can provide a calmer ownership structure and better conditions for the share price to reflect fundamentals Now the report on January 21 will be extra exciting to follow. 🍿 ⸻ ❓ How do you interpret Magnus Kondrad's entry – do you see it as a “smart money” sign when fund ownership is decreasing at the same time? (Attaching images of the shareholder list as source.)
- ·11.12.2025D&G sells on – share price temporarily held back Looking at the ownership data from July → September → October → November, a very clear trend emerges: • July: 1.59 M shares • September: 1.22 M • October: 0.92 M • November: 0.58 M These are not minor adjustments — it is a structured and accelerating exit. After Didner & Gerge was integrated into Carnegie, the fund has chosen to exit its smaller small-cap positions, and MAG is one of them. It is a fund-technical effect, not a stance against the company. But in the short term, it has had a significant impact: D&G's sales have pressured the share price during a period of low trading volume and few buyers. The positive thing is that the fund, at the current pace, is likely completely out within 1–2 months. When such fund flows cease, the stock usually finds it easier to move, especially if news flow and momentum improve simultaneously. At the same time, we see that other owners continue to strengthen their positions: • Avanza Pension increases significantly 📈 • New buyers are visible outside the top-10 • The retail base is steadily broadening The combination of a pressured share price, low attention, and a large seller who will soon be done means that the valuation is currently low in relation to: • Crozzle-momentum • improved UA-efficiency • stronger autumn season • stable base portfolio The next major data point will be the Q1 report on January 21, a quarter that historically often shows the company's potential. If the report confirms the trend from autumn, sentiment could very well start to turn. ⸻ ❓ So what do you do now? Do you await the report for more evidence – or do you take the opportunity to buy while the fund sales are still keeping the price down?
- ·17.11.2025🏆 Part 5 – The Goal: from growth to dividend (2028 →) We have now reached the series' endpoint. After having reviewed the revenue engine, the UA model, the tail, and the cash flow, one question remains: 👉 What does all this lead to? The answer lies in the three images below. Together, they show MAG's three-year journey – and why the company is entering a completely new phase. ⸻ 💧 1. Cash flow becomes strong – growth starts to sustain itself The graph of operating cash flow shows the turning point: • 2026: low level • 2027: clear improvement • 2028: strong uplift • 2029: 124 MSEK in operating cash flow This is the effect of the entire machine: • UA → new players • The tail → recurring revenue • LTV & ROAS → self-financing growth When players themselves pay for growth, everything changes. That is exactly where MAG is now headed. ⸻ 🧩 2. The group level confirms the shift – the model holds all the way down to EBIT In the group overview, we see how the journey takes shape: • EBITDAC: 8 → 124 MSEK • EBITDA: 53 → 166 MSEK • EBIT: –11 → +106 MSEK • EBITDA margin: up to 27 % This is not a quarterly phenomenon. It is a structural change driven by: • the tail grows • the core portfolio continues to deliver • Crozzle contributes strongly • UA provides increasingly better payback When the tail becomes large enough, the result truly lifts. ⸻ 💵 3. The Valuation – what MAG could be worth in the next phase When we adjust for the growth cost (Game Contribution 2), we get a fairer picture of MAG's underlying profitability. In the valuation graph, we see: • UA-adjusted EBITDA: 62 → 95 → 167 → 242 → 240 MSEK • Multiples of 6–8.5x are conservative • Gives a reasonable share price of: 17 kr → 25 kr → 43 kr → 64 kr → 86 kr This is not wishful thinking. It is a consequence of the model when both tail and cash flow grow. When the market starts to value MAG based on cash flow and recurring revenue – that's when the re-pricing occurs. ⸻ 💰 4. Cash flow → dividends (2028 →) The model shows: • 2027: cash flow becomes stably positive • 2028: strong surplus even with continued UA • 2029: very strong cash flow This means: 2028 → room for dividend at the same level as the first: 1 kr/share. And thereafter: • 2029 → greater dividend capacity • 2030 → possibility for buybacks + regular dividend This is the endpoint in MAG's journey from: growth machine → cash machine → dividend machine. ⸻ 🌱 5. A final reflection on sustainable growth Affärsvärlden recently questioned MAG's ability to grow sustainably. It is a legitimate question – but the answer lies in the company's strategy. It's not just Crozzle. MAG has several titles in test with the same goal: • high retention • strong monetization • low churn • long tail • global potential Crozzle shows that the model works. The upcoming games show that the model can be repeated. That is why sustainable growth is not only possible – but built into MAG's long-term plan. ⸻ 📚 Missed a part? Here is the whole series 🔹 Intro – MAG's three-year journey 🔹 Part 1 – The Revenue Engine 🔹 Part 2 – UA Investments 🔹 Part 3 – The Tail 🔹 Part 4 – The Cash Flow 🔹 Part 5 – The Goal: from growth to dividend ⸻ ⭐ Thank you for following the series This was my most thoroughly elaborated MAG analysis to date. Hope it has created both clarity and curiosity for the journey that lies ahead of us.
- ·16.11.2025💧 Part 4 – Cash Flow: when growth starts to finance itself Most analyze MAG based on results, margins, and quarterly fluctuations. But the most important parameter in the entire model is cash flow. Because when a company reaches that point – that growth is financed by the players themselves – then everything changes. MAG is just entering that phase. ⸻ 🧩 1. From UA cost → long tail → cash flow MAG's business model boils down to three steps: 1️⃣ UA costs (Spelbidrag 2 becomes negative) 2️⃣ The long tail is built (Spelbidrag 3 grows) 3️⃣ Cash flow rises (EBITDAC increases) It is extremely clear in the graph of operating cash flow: • 2026: almost nothing • 2027: starts to lift off • 2028: sharply up • 2029: 124 MSEK in operating cash flow UA is therefore not a cost – but an investment in future cash flow. ⸻ 📈 2. Why cash flow explodes after 2027 It's about the long tail. The revenue graph shows that the Crozzle-long tail grows every year. When the long tail becomes large, three things happen: • the margin lifts • gross profit rises • cash flow becomes positive even with high UA investments Therefore, EBITDAC goes from 8 → 124 MSEK in the model. MAG goes from “growth machine” to “cash machine”. ⸻ 💡 3. Growth becomes self-financed When every UA-krona doubles itself over 2–3 years, no external capital is needed. This is MAG's biggest advantage right now: • strong LTV • high ROAS • growing long tail • stable base portfolio Together, they enable MAG to grow without diluting shareholders – and still increase cash flow. ⸻ 💵 4. Cash Flow → Dividends In the model we see: • 2027: cash flow truly becomes positive • 2028: strong cash flow even with continued UA • 2029: really strong cash flow This means: 2028 → room for dividend with potential for a second dividend of 1 kr/share — same level as the first. This is not optimism. It is a logical consequence of a model where the long tail is large and growth finances itself. Part 4 thus shows the turning point: The growth machine becomes a cash machine – and the cash machine can become a dividend machine. ⸻ 📅 Part 5 comes tomorrow 🔜 The Goal: from growth to dividend (2028 →) The finale ties together the model, cash flow, and valuation.
- ·15.11.2025💎 Part 3 – The Tail: the value built in silence This is one of the series' most important parts. Because it is the tail that explains: • why UA is profitable • why 2028–2029 will be strong years • why cash flow is lifting • why the valuation should go up • why MAG's model is stable despite quarterly fluctuations Many underestimate the tail – but it is MAG's true goldmine. ⸻ 🌱 1. What is the tail – really? The tail is the revenue that continues to come long after the UA money is spent. When MAG acquires users in e.g. Q1, three things happen: 1️⃣ Revenue in Q1 (payback) 2️⃣ Revenue in Q2–Q4 from the same cohort 3️⃣ Ongoing revenue the year after (the tail) It is the tail that creates the long-term value. The tail is therefore: • stable • predictable • high-margin • recurring • and growing as cohorts grow ⸻ 📈 2. The “Revenue” image shows the entire mechanism In the graph, we see that revenues: • grow • broaden • are stabilized by a growing cohort • increase as the tail grows It's not just Crozzle. It's the entire portfolio that pulls: • Wordzee • QuizDuel • other stable titles • and upcoming new games with Crozzle key figures When a game reaches the right retention + ARPDAU → the tail is built automatically. ⸻ 🧩 3. The tail lifts all key figures simultaneously This is the beauty of it: When the tail grows, it affects: • Gross profit (less dependent on UA) • EBITDA (stronger margins) • EBIT (the model turns to profitability) • Operating cash flow (the real value) The tail is therefore: 💚 cash flow 💚 stability 💚 profitability 💚 valuation 💚 dividend capacity Everything is connected. ⸻ 🏗 4. Why the tail is MAG's big advantage compared to many competitors MAG has three key advantages: ✔ 1. Extremely strong retention in Crozzle This provides an exceptional tail curve. ✔ 2. Base portfolio with many long-lived games They are a tail in themselves. ✔ 3. New titles are built with the Crozzle model This is the most underestimated of all: MAG has several games in test that aim to replicate Crozzle's key figures. This means a multiple effect in the tail 2026–2029. ⸻ 💧 5. Therefore, operating cash flow lifts in Part 4 The tail is the reason for the big jump in cash flow: • 2026: UA build-up • 2027: return on previous UA • 2028: the tail takes over • 2029: the cash machine is activated It is the tail that makes: “MAG goes from growth machine to dividend machine.” The tail is therefore the bridge between Part 2 and Part 4. ⸻ 📅 Part 4 comes tomorrow 🔜 Cash flow: when growth starts to finance itself (Part 4 is one of the series' most powerful parts, visually and logically)
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
First North Sweden
Määrä
Osto
195
Myynti
Määrä
2 239
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | - | - | ||
| 132 | - | - | ||
| 1 724 | - | - | ||
| 276 | - | - | ||
| 25 | - | - |
Ylin
8,04VWAP
Alin
7,74VaihtoMäärä
0,1 7 447
VWAP
Ylin
8,04Alin
7,74VaihtoMäärä
0,1 7 447
Välittäjätilasto
Ostaneet eniten
| Välittäjä | Ostettu | Myyty | Netto | Sisäinen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anonyymi | 7 447 | 7 447 | 0 | 0 |
Myyneet eniten
| Välittäjä | Ostettu | Myyty | Netto | Sisäinen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anonyymi | 7 447 | 7 447 | 0 | 0 |
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 -tulosraportti | 21.1. 5 päivää |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 -tulosraportti | 22.10.2025 | |
| 2025 Q3 -tulosraportti | 25.6.2025 | |
| 2025 Q2 -tulosraportti | 2.4.2025 | |
| 2025 Q1 -tulosraportti | 22.1.2025 | |
| 2024 Q4 -tulosraportti | 23.10.2024 |
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
86 päivää sitten15 min
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 -tulosraportti | 21.1. 5 päivää |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 -tulosraportti | 22.10.2025 | |
| 2025 Q3 -tulosraportti | 25.6.2025 | |
| 2025 Q2 -tulosraportti | 2.4.2025 | |
| 2025 Q1 -tulosraportti | 22.1.2025 | |
| 2024 Q4 -tulosraportti | 23.10.2024 |
1,00 SEK/osake
Viimeisin osinko
12,38%Tuotto/v
Shareville
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- ·12.1.Welcome Magnus Kondrad – strong sign of strength in the shareholder list 👏🟣 In the latest update of the top 10 shareholder list in MAG, we see a really interesting change: ✅ Magnus Kondrad enters as a new top 10 shareholder with 640,000 shares (2.4%). It's not often we see a new private major shareholder take a place at this level – so I just want to say: Welcome in! 👋🙂 And yes – I would say congratulations on a very good purchase at really good levels. ⸻ 🔄 Fund out – private major shareholder in At the same time, we see that Carnegie Fonder Didner & Gerge has now disappeared from the top 10 (they had 576,589 shares as of 30/11). Exactly how much might remain to be sold, we naturally don't know – but regardless, it is clear that fund ownership has been significantly reduced, which for me is positive in the long run. ⸻ 👀 The sector as a whole I also note that ownership has decreased in several Swedish gaming companies recently. So it doesn't feel like something unique to MAG – but more like a sector phenomenon where capital has left and sentiment has been weak. Now that the reporting season is starting (for MAG on January 21), I believe that the turnaround can come quite quickly in companies that show stabilization and improvement in KPIs. ⸻ ⭐ Summary For me, this signals: 🟣 Important milestone: Carnegie/D&G out of top 10 🟣 Strength: new private major shareholder steps forward and takes a place in the top 10 🟣 Potential: once the fund sale is completely finished, it can provide a calmer ownership structure and better conditions for the share price to reflect fundamentals Now the report on January 21 will be extra exciting to follow. 🍿 ⸻ ❓ How do you interpret Magnus Kondrad's entry – do you see it as a “smart money” sign when fund ownership is decreasing at the same time? (Attaching images of the shareholder list as source.)
- ·11.12.2025D&G sells on – share price temporarily held back Looking at the ownership data from July → September → October → November, a very clear trend emerges: • July: 1.59 M shares • September: 1.22 M • October: 0.92 M • November: 0.58 M These are not minor adjustments — it is a structured and accelerating exit. After Didner & Gerge was integrated into Carnegie, the fund has chosen to exit its smaller small-cap positions, and MAG is one of them. It is a fund-technical effect, not a stance against the company. But in the short term, it has had a significant impact: D&G's sales have pressured the share price during a period of low trading volume and few buyers. The positive thing is that the fund, at the current pace, is likely completely out within 1–2 months. When such fund flows cease, the stock usually finds it easier to move, especially if news flow and momentum improve simultaneously. At the same time, we see that other owners continue to strengthen their positions: • Avanza Pension increases significantly 📈 • New buyers are visible outside the top-10 • The retail base is steadily broadening The combination of a pressured share price, low attention, and a large seller who will soon be done means that the valuation is currently low in relation to: • Crozzle-momentum • improved UA-efficiency • stronger autumn season • stable base portfolio The next major data point will be the Q1 report on January 21, a quarter that historically often shows the company's potential. If the report confirms the trend from autumn, sentiment could very well start to turn. ⸻ ❓ So what do you do now? Do you await the report for more evidence – or do you take the opportunity to buy while the fund sales are still keeping the price down?
- ·17.11.2025🏆 Part 5 – The Goal: from growth to dividend (2028 →) We have now reached the series' endpoint. After having reviewed the revenue engine, the UA model, the tail, and the cash flow, one question remains: 👉 What does all this lead to? The answer lies in the three images below. Together, they show MAG's three-year journey – and why the company is entering a completely new phase. ⸻ 💧 1. Cash flow becomes strong – growth starts to sustain itself The graph of operating cash flow shows the turning point: • 2026: low level • 2027: clear improvement • 2028: strong uplift • 2029: 124 MSEK in operating cash flow This is the effect of the entire machine: • UA → new players • The tail → recurring revenue • LTV & ROAS → self-financing growth When players themselves pay for growth, everything changes. That is exactly where MAG is now headed. ⸻ 🧩 2. The group level confirms the shift – the model holds all the way down to EBIT In the group overview, we see how the journey takes shape: • EBITDAC: 8 → 124 MSEK • EBITDA: 53 → 166 MSEK • EBIT: –11 → +106 MSEK • EBITDA margin: up to 27 % This is not a quarterly phenomenon. It is a structural change driven by: • the tail grows • the core portfolio continues to deliver • Crozzle contributes strongly • UA provides increasingly better payback When the tail becomes large enough, the result truly lifts. ⸻ 💵 3. The Valuation – what MAG could be worth in the next phase When we adjust for the growth cost (Game Contribution 2), we get a fairer picture of MAG's underlying profitability. In the valuation graph, we see: • UA-adjusted EBITDA: 62 → 95 → 167 → 242 → 240 MSEK • Multiples of 6–8.5x are conservative • Gives a reasonable share price of: 17 kr → 25 kr → 43 kr → 64 kr → 86 kr This is not wishful thinking. It is a consequence of the model when both tail and cash flow grow. When the market starts to value MAG based on cash flow and recurring revenue – that's when the re-pricing occurs. ⸻ 💰 4. Cash flow → dividends (2028 →) The model shows: • 2027: cash flow becomes stably positive • 2028: strong surplus even with continued UA • 2029: very strong cash flow This means: 2028 → room for dividend at the same level as the first: 1 kr/share. And thereafter: • 2029 → greater dividend capacity • 2030 → possibility for buybacks + regular dividend This is the endpoint in MAG's journey from: growth machine → cash machine → dividend machine. ⸻ 🌱 5. A final reflection on sustainable growth Affärsvärlden recently questioned MAG's ability to grow sustainably. It is a legitimate question – but the answer lies in the company's strategy. It's not just Crozzle. MAG has several titles in test with the same goal: • high retention • strong monetization • low churn • long tail • global potential Crozzle shows that the model works. The upcoming games show that the model can be repeated. That is why sustainable growth is not only possible – but built into MAG's long-term plan. ⸻ 📚 Missed a part? Here is the whole series 🔹 Intro – MAG's three-year journey 🔹 Part 1 – The Revenue Engine 🔹 Part 2 – UA Investments 🔹 Part 3 – The Tail 🔹 Part 4 – The Cash Flow 🔹 Part 5 – The Goal: from growth to dividend ⸻ ⭐ Thank you for following the series This was my most thoroughly elaborated MAG analysis to date. Hope it has created both clarity and curiosity for the journey that lies ahead of us.
- ·16.11.2025💧 Part 4 – Cash Flow: when growth starts to finance itself Most analyze MAG based on results, margins, and quarterly fluctuations. But the most important parameter in the entire model is cash flow. Because when a company reaches that point – that growth is financed by the players themselves – then everything changes. MAG is just entering that phase. ⸻ 🧩 1. From UA cost → long tail → cash flow MAG's business model boils down to three steps: 1️⃣ UA costs (Spelbidrag 2 becomes negative) 2️⃣ The long tail is built (Spelbidrag 3 grows) 3️⃣ Cash flow rises (EBITDAC increases) It is extremely clear in the graph of operating cash flow: • 2026: almost nothing • 2027: starts to lift off • 2028: sharply up • 2029: 124 MSEK in operating cash flow UA is therefore not a cost – but an investment in future cash flow. ⸻ 📈 2. Why cash flow explodes after 2027 It's about the long tail. The revenue graph shows that the Crozzle-long tail grows every year. When the long tail becomes large, three things happen: • the margin lifts • gross profit rises • cash flow becomes positive even with high UA investments Therefore, EBITDAC goes from 8 → 124 MSEK in the model. MAG goes from “growth machine” to “cash machine”. ⸻ 💡 3. Growth becomes self-financed When every UA-krona doubles itself over 2–3 years, no external capital is needed. This is MAG's biggest advantage right now: • strong LTV • high ROAS • growing long tail • stable base portfolio Together, they enable MAG to grow without diluting shareholders – and still increase cash flow. ⸻ 💵 4. Cash Flow → Dividends In the model we see: • 2027: cash flow truly becomes positive • 2028: strong cash flow even with continued UA • 2029: really strong cash flow This means: 2028 → room for dividend with potential for a second dividend of 1 kr/share — same level as the first. This is not optimism. It is a logical consequence of a model where the long tail is large and growth finances itself. Part 4 thus shows the turning point: The growth machine becomes a cash machine – and the cash machine can become a dividend machine. ⸻ 📅 Part 5 comes tomorrow 🔜 The Goal: from growth to dividend (2028 →) The finale ties together the model, cash flow, and valuation.
- ·15.11.2025💎 Part 3 – The Tail: the value built in silence This is one of the series' most important parts. Because it is the tail that explains: • why UA is profitable • why 2028–2029 will be strong years • why cash flow is lifting • why the valuation should go up • why MAG's model is stable despite quarterly fluctuations Many underestimate the tail – but it is MAG's true goldmine. ⸻ 🌱 1. What is the tail – really? The tail is the revenue that continues to come long after the UA money is spent. When MAG acquires users in e.g. Q1, three things happen: 1️⃣ Revenue in Q1 (payback) 2️⃣ Revenue in Q2–Q4 from the same cohort 3️⃣ Ongoing revenue the year after (the tail) It is the tail that creates the long-term value. The tail is therefore: • stable • predictable • high-margin • recurring • and growing as cohorts grow ⸻ 📈 2. The “Revenue” image shows the entire mechanism In the graph, we see that revenues: • grow • broaden • are stabilized by a growing cohort • increase as the tail grows It's not just Crozzle. It's the entire portfolio that pulls: • Wordzee • QuizDuel • other stable titles • and upcoming new games with Crozzle key figures When a game reaches the right retention + ARPDAU → the tail is built automatically. ⸻ 🧩 3. The tail lifts all key figures simultaneously This is the beauty of it: When the tail grows, it affects: • Gross profit (less dependent on UA) • EBITDA (stronger margins) • EBIT (the model turns to profitability) • Operating cash flow (the real value) The tail is therefore: 💚 cash flow 💚 stability 💚 profitability 💚 valuation 💚 dividend capacity Everything is connected. ⸻ 🏗 4. Why the tail is MAG's big advantage compared to many competitors MAG has three key advantages: ✔ 1. Extremely strong retention in Crozzle This provides an exceptional tail curve. ✔ 2. Base portfolio with many long-lived games They are a tail in themselves. ✔ 3. New titles are built with the Crozzle model This is the most underestimated of all: MAG has several games in test that aim to replicate Crozzle's key figures. This means a multiple effect in the tail 2026–2029. ⸻ 💧 5. Therefore, operating cash flow lifts in Part 4 The tail is the reason for the big jump in cash flow: • 2026: UA build-up • 2027: return on previous UA • 2028: the tail takes over • 2029: the cash machine is activated It is the tail that makes: “MAG goes from growth machine to dividend machine.” The tail is therefore the bridge between Part 2 and Part 4. ⸻ 📅 Part 4 comes tomorrow 🔜 Cash flow: when growth starts to finance itself (Part 4 is one of the series' most powerful parts, visually and logically)
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