Q4-osavuosiraportti
28 päivää sitten‧15 min
1,00 SEK/osake
Viimeisin osinko
11,63 %Tuotto/v
Tarjoustasot
First North Sweden
Määrä
Osto
3 288
Myynti
Määrä
1 123
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 662 | - | - | ||
| 509 | - | - | ||
| 541 | - | - |
Ylin
8,8VWAP
Alin
8,74VaihtoMäärä
0 2 712
VWAP
Ylin
8,8Alin
8,74VaihtoMäärä
0 2 712
Välittäjätilasto
Ostaneet eniten
| Välittäjä | Ostettu | Myyty | Netto | Sisäinen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anonyymi | 5 910 | 5 910 | 0 | 0 |
Myyneet eniten
| Välittäjä | Ostettu | Myyty | Netto | Sisäinen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anonyymi | 5 910 | 5 910 | 0 | 0 |
Yhtiötapahtumat
| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
| 2026 Q1-osavuosiraportti | 21.1.2026 |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4-osavuosiraportti | 22.10. | |
| 2025 Q3-osavuosiraportti | 25.6. | |
| 2025 Q2-osavuosiraportti | 2.4. | |
| 2025 Q1-osavuosiraportti | 22.1. | |
| 2024 Yhtiökokous | 22.1. |
Datan lähde: Millistream, Quartr
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·1 päivä sitten🏆 Part 5 – The Goal: from growth to dividend (2028 →) We have now reached the series' endpoint. After having reviewed the revenue engine, the UA model, the tail, and the cash flow, one question remains: 👉 What does all this lead to? The answer lies in the three images below. Together, they show MAG's three-year journey – and why the company is entering a completely new phase. ⸻ 💧 1. Cash flow becomes strong – growth starts to sustain itself The graph of operating cash flow shows the turning point: • 2026: low level • 2027: clear improvement • 2028: strong uplift • 2029: 124 MSEK in operating cash flow This is the effect of the entire machine: • UA → new players • The tail → recurring revenue • LTV & ROAS → self-financing growth When players themselves pay for growth, everything changes. That is exactly where MAG is now headed. ⸻ 🧩 2. The group level confirms the shift – the model holds all the way down to EBIT In the group overview, we see how the journey takes shape: • EBITDAC: 8 → 124 MSEK • EBITDA: 53 → 166 MSEK • EBIT: –11 → +106 MSEK • EBITDA margin: up to 27 % This is not a quarterly phenomenon. It is a structural change driven by: • the tail grows • the core portfolio continues to deliver • Crozzle contributes strongly • UA provides increasingly better payback When the tail becomes large enough, the result truly lifts. ⸻ 💵 3. The Valuation – what MAG could be worth in the next phase When we adjust for the growth cost (Game Contribution 2), we get a fairer picture of MAG's underlying profitability. In the valuation graph, we see: • UA-adjusted EBITDA: 62 → 95 → 167 → 242 → 240 MSEK • Multiples of 6–8.5x are conservative • Gives a reasonable share price of: 17 kr → 25 kr → 43 kr → 64 kr → 86 kr This is not wishful thinking. It is a consequence of the model when both tail and cash flow grow. When the market starts to value MAG based on cash flow and recurring revenue – that's when the re-pricing occurs. ⸻ 💰 4. Cash flow → dividends (2028 →) The model shows: • 2027: cash flow becomes stably positive • 2028: strong surplus even with continued UA • 2029: very strong cash flow This means: 2028 → room for dividend at the same level as the first: 1 kr/share. And thereafter: • 2029 → greater dividend capacity • 2030 → possibility for buybacks + regular dividend This is the endpoint in MAG's journey from: growth machine → cash machine → dividend machine. ⸻ 🌱 5. A final reflection on sustainable growth Affärsvärlden recently questioned MAG's ability to grow sustainably. It is a legitimate question – but the answer lies in the company's strategy. It's not just Crozzle. MAG has several titles in test with the same goal: • high retention • strong monetization • low churn • long tail • global potential Crozzle shows that the model works. The upcoming games show that the model can be repeated. That is why sustainable growth is not only possible – but built into MAG's long-term plan. ⸻ 📚 Missed a part? Here is the whole series 🔹 Intro – MAG's three-year journey 🔹 Part 1 – The Revenue Engine 🔹 Part 2 – UA Investments 🔹 Part 3 – The Tail 🔹 Part 4 – The Cash Flow 🔹 Part 5 – The Goal: from growth to dividend ⸻ ⭐ Thank you for following the series This was my most thoroughly elaborated MAG analysis to date. Hope it has created both clarity and curiosity for the journey that lies ahead of us.- ·2 päivää sitten💧 Part 4 – Cash Flow: when growth starts to finance itself Most analyze MAG based on results, margins, and quarterly fluctuations. But the most important parameter in the entire model is cash flow. Because when a company reaches that point – that growth is financed by the players themselves – then everything changes. MAG is just entering that phase. ⸻ 🧩 1. From UA cost → long tail → cash flow MAG's business model boils down to three steps: 1️⃣ UA costs (Spelbidrag 2 becomes negative) 2️⃣ The long tail is built (Spelbidrag 3 grows) 3️⃣ Cash flow rises (EBITDAC increases) It is extremely clear in the graph of operating cash flow: • 2026: almost nothing • 2027: starts to lift off • 2028: sharply up • 2029: 124 MSEK in operating cash flow UA is therefore not a cost – but an investment in future cash flow. ⸻ 📈 2. Why cash flow explodes after 2027 It's about the long tail. The revenue graph shows that the Crozzle-long tail grows every year. When the long tail becomes large, three things happen: • the margin lifts • gross profit rises • cash flow becomes positive even with high UA investments Therefore, EBITDAC goes from 8 → 124 MSEK in the model. MAG goes from “growth machine” to “cash machine”. ⸻ 💡 3. Growth becomes self-financed When every UA-krona doubles itself over 2–3 years, no external capital is needed. This is MAG's biggest advantage right now: • strong LTV • high ROAS • growing long tail • stable base portfolio Together, they enable MAG to grow without diluting shareholders – and still increase cash flow. ⸻ 💵 4. Cash Flow → Dividends In the model we see: • 2027: cash flow truly becomes positive • 2028: strong cash flow even with continued UA • 2029: really strong cash flow This means: 2028 → room for dividend with potential for a second dividend of 1 kr/share — same level as the first. This is not optimism. It is a logical consequence of a model where the long tail is large and growth finances itself. Part 4 thus shows the turning point: The growth machine becomes a cash machine – and the cash machine can become a dividend machine. ⸻ 📅 Part 5 comes tomorrow 🔜 The Goal: from growth to dividend (2028 →) The finale ties together the model, cash flow, and valuation.
- ·3 päivää sitten💎 Part 3 – The Tail: the value built in silence This is one of the series' most important parts. Because it is the tail that explains: • why UA is profitable • why 2028–2029 will be strong years • why cash flow is lifting • why the valuation should go up • why MAG's model is stable despite quarterly fluctuations Many underestimate the tail – but it is MAG's true goldmine. ⸻ 🌱 1. What is the tail – really? The tail is the revenue that continues to come long after the UA money is spent. When MAG acquires users in e.g. Q1, three things happen: 1️⃣ Revenue in Q1 (payback) 2️⃣ Revenue in Q2–Q4 from the same cohort 3️⃣ Ongoing revenue the year after (the tail) It is the tail that creates the long-term value. The tail is therefore: • stable • predictable • high-margin • recurring • and growing as cohorts grow ⸻ 📈 2. The “Revenue” image shows the entire mechanism In the graph, we see that revenues: • grow • broaden • are stabilized by a growing cohort • increase as the tail grows It's not just Crozzle. It's the entire portfolio that pulls: • Wordzee • QuizDuel • other stable titles • and upcoming new games with Crozzle key figures When a game reaches the right retention + ARPDAU → the tail is built automatically. ⸻ 🧩 3. The tail lifts all key figures simultaneously This is the beauty of it: When the tail grows, it affects: • Gross profit (less dependent on UA) • EBITDA (stronger margins) • EBIT (the model turns to profitability) • Operating cash flow (the real value) The tail is therefore: 💚 cash flow 💚 stability 💚 profitability 💚 valuation 💚 dividend capacity Everything is connected. ⸻ 🏗 4. Why the tail is MAG's big advantage compared to many competitors MAG has three key advantages: ✔ 1. Extremely strong retention in Crozzle This provides an exceptional tail curve. ✔ 2. Base portfolio with many long-lived games They are a tail in themselves. ✔ 3. New titles are built with the Crozzle model This is the most underestimated of all: MAG has several games in test that aim to replicate Crozzle's key figures. This means a multiple effect in the tail 2026–2029. ⸻ 💧 5. Therefore, operating cash flow lifts in Part 4 The tail is the reason for the big jump in cash flow: • 2026: UA build-up • 2027: return on previous UA • 2028: the tail takes over • 2029: the cash machine is activated It is the tail that makes: “MAG goes from growth machine to dividend machine.” The tail is therefore the bridge between Part 2 and Part 4. ⸻ 📅 Part 4 comes tomorrow 🔜 Cash flow: when growth starts to finance itself (Part 4 is one of the series' most powerful parts, visually and logically)
- ·14.11.🔥 Part 2 – UA investments: why margins fluctuate (and why that's good) UA (user acquisition) is one of the most misunderstood parts of mobile gaming companies. It's visible in almost every MAG discussion: • “Why do margins fluctuate so much?” • “Why is the gross margin lower in certain quarters?” • “Is it a problem or a sign of growth?” In this part, we go through exactly how the model works – and why fluctuating margins are actually a sign of strength in MAG's phase. ⸻ 🎯 1. UA is not a cost – it's investments in future revenues In the graph of UA investments, we clearly see how the level varies between the years. And that is completely intentional. When MAG sees: • good ROAS • strong LTV • high willingness to pay • effective marketing …then they scale up UA to build revenues in the long term. The important thing is this: ✔ UA costs today ✔ but builds revenues for months and years afterwards It's like sowing seeds. The margin drops now – the tail grows later. ⸻ 📉 2. Game Contribution 2 – the key to understanding the fluctuations Here comes perhaps the most important image in the series: Game Contribution 2. It shows exactly how much the growth investments “push down” the result before the revenues have time to come in. • High UA → Game Contribution 2 more negative • Lower UA → Game Contribution 2 improves • The tail from previous UA → drives Game Contribution 3 upwards This means: ✔ Margins are not “volatile” ✔ They follow the UA level with a time delay And that is completely normal in this business model. ⸻ 🔁 3. UA → Payback → Tail (the real model behind MAG's future profit) This is what the value flow looks like: 1️⃣ UA investment – money out now 2️⃣ Payback within the quarter – the first wave of revenues from new users 3️⃣ The Tail (Game Contribution 3) – the ongoing revenue that comes for months and years It's the tail that lifts the entire model. And that's why it's so important to understand UA in the right perspective. ⸻ 💰 4. Why fluctuating margins are positive in MAG's phase In the graph of Game Contribution = gross profit, the pattern is clearly visible: • Gross profit increases over time • The tail becomes a larger and larger part • And the margin lifts when UA decreases It is a sign of: • high ROI on UA • strong LTV • a growing cohort • and a model that works in practice In other industries, fluctuations are a problem. In mobile games, it's proof that the machine is working. MAG earns less today – to earn more tomorrow. ⸻ 🧭 5. The important thing for 2026–2028 In the model, we see that: • 2026–2027 are expansion years • 2027–2028 yields rising revenues and tail • 2028–2029 lifts the cash flow significantly It is the path towards dividend capacity (Part 5). And it all starts with understanding UA. ⸻ 📅 Part 3 comes tomorrow 🔜 The Tail – the value built in silence One of the most eye-opening parts of the series.
- ·13.11.⭐ Part 1 – The Revenue Engine: why Crozzle changes everything If you want to understand MAG's journey 2026–2028, there's one question more important than all others: What actually drives revenues – and why is everything pointing upwards? Many investors look quarter to quarter. But if you look two–three years ahead, a clear picture emerges: Crozzle has changed the entire revenue profile. And this is where the journey begins. ⸻ 📈 1. The new revenue mix – Crozzle lifts the whole In the revenue graph, we see three clear components: • Base revenues (Wordzee, QuizDuel, etc.) remain at a stable level. • The Crozzle tail grows strongly year by year. • Payback revenues (new users via UA) fill up the top. The important point: ➜ Crozzle is a true evergreen Revenues continue to grow long after launch – just like Wordzee, but with significantly stronger key metrics. That's why net sales in our models go from 275 → 662 MSEK in just three years. Crozzle provides both upside and stability. ⸻ 💰 2. Gross profit – the foundation for everything that comes later Game contribution = gross profit. These are revenues minus platform costs and UA investments. Here we immediately see the effect of Crozzle: • Gross profit is around 150 MSEK at the beginning • …but rises to almost 300 MSEK at the end of the period That's a doubling. At the same time, the line “Game contribution 3 – Crozzle tail” shows how much value is being built quietly: • 3 MSEK → 41 → 127 → 218 → 219 It is this tail that will later lift the cash flow. Gross margin fluctuates depending on the level of UA investments, but the trend is clear: the more tail, the higher the margin. ⸻ 🌱 3. The revenue engine is running – and the rest builds on it It's easy to believe that margins fluctuate because “things are going badly”. But when you see how revenues, gross profit, and the tail grow together, the message is the opposite: MAG is now investing to grow – and this is first seen in revenues, then in gross profit, and finally in cash flow. This is the core of MAG's three-year journey. Part 1 is about understanding why revenues are getting stronger year by year. Only in Part 2 will we delve into why margins fluctuate – and why it is actually a sign of strength. ⸻ 📅 Part 2 comes tomorrow 🔜 UA investments – why margins fluctuate (and why that's good) It will be one of the most important parts of the series.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Uutiset ja analyysit
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Q4-osavuosiraportti
28 päivää sitten‧15 min
1,00 SEK/osake
Viimeisin osinko
11,63 %Tuotto/v
Uutiset ja analyysit
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
Kirjaudu
- ·1 päivä sitten🏆 Part 5 – The Goal: from growth to dividend (2028 →) We have now reached the series' endpoint. After having reviewed the revenue engine, the UA model, the tail, and the cash flow, one question remains: 👉 What does all this lead to? The answer lies in the three images below. Together, they show MAG's three-year journey – and why the company is entering a completely new phase. ⸻ 💧 1. Cash flow becomes strong – growth starts to sustain itself The graph of operating cash flow shows the turning point: • 2026: low level • 2027: clear improvement • 2028: strong uplift • 2029: 124 MSEK in operating cash flow This is the effect of the entire machine: • UA → new players • The tail → recurring revenue • LTV & ROAS → self-financing growth When players themselves pay for growth, everything changes. That is exactly where MAG is now headed. ⸻ 🧩 2. The group level confirms the shift – the model holds all the way down to EBIT In the group overview, we see how the journey takes shape: • EBITDAC: 8 → 124 MSEK • EBITDA: 53 → 166 MSEK • EBIT: –11 → +106 MSEK • EBITDA margin: up to 27 % This is not a quarterly phenomenon. It is a structural change driven by: • the tail grows • the core portfolio continues to deliver • Crozzle contributes strongly • UA provides increasingly better payback When the tail becomes large enough, the result truly lifts. ⸻ 💵 3. The Valuation – what MAG could be worth in the next phase When we adjust for the growth cost (Game Contribution 2), we get a fairer picture of MAG's underlying profitability. In the valuation graph, we see: • UA-adjusted EBITDA: 62 → 95 → 167 → 242 → 240 MSEK • Multiples of 6–8.5x are conservative • Gives a reasonable share price of: 17 kr → 25 kr → 43 kr → 64 kr → 86 kr This is not wishful thinking. It is a consequence of the model when both tail and cash flow grow. When the market starts to value MAG based on cash flow and recurring revenue – that's when the re-pricing occurs. ⸻ 💰 4. Cash flow → dividends (2028 →) The model shows: • 2027: cash flow becomes stably positive • 2028: strong surplus even with continued UA • 2029: very strong cash flow This means: 2028 → room for dividend at the same level as the first: 1 kr/share. And thereafter: • 2029 → greater dividend capacity • 2030 → possibility for buybacks + regular dividend This is the endpoint in MAG's journey from: growth machine → cash machine → dividend machine. ⸻ 🌱 5. A final reflection on sustainable growth Affärsvärlden recently questioned MAG's ability to grow sustainably. It is a legitimate question – but the answer lies in the company's strategy. It's not just Crozzle. MAG has several titles in test with the same goal: • high retention • strong monetization • low churn • long tail • global potential Crozzle shows that the model works. The upcoming games show that the model can be repeated. That is why sustainable growth is not only possible – but built into MAG's long-term plan. ⸻ 📚 Missed a part? Here is the whole series 🔹 Intro – MAG's three-year journey 🔹 Part 1 – The Revenue Engine 🔹 Part 2 – UA Investments 🔹 Part 3 – The Tail 🔹 Part 4 – The Cash Flow 🔹 Part 5 – The Goal: from growth to dividend ⸻ ⭐ Thank you for following the series This was my most thoroughly elaborated MAG analysis to date. Hope it has created both clarity and curiosity for the journey that lies ahead of us.
- ·2 päivää sitten💧 Part 4 – Cash Flow: when growth starts to finance itself Most analyze MAG based on results, margins, and quarterly fluctuations. But the most important parameter in the entire model is cash flow. Because when a company reaches that point – that growth is financed by the players themselves – then everything changes. MAG is just entering that phase. ⸻ 🧩 1. From UA cost → long tail → cash flow MAG's business model boils down to three steps: 1️⃣ UA costs (Spelbidrag 2 becomes negative) 2️⃣ The long tail is built (Spelbidrag 3 grows) 3️⃣ Cash flow rises (EBITDAC increases) It is extremely clear in the graph of operating cash flow: • 2026: almost nothing • 2027: starts to lift off • 2028: sharply up • 2029: 124 MSEK in operating cash flow UA is therefore not a cost – but an investment in future cash flow. ⸻ 📈 2. Why cash flow explodes after 2027 It's about the long tail. The revenue graph shows that the Crozzle-long tail grows every year. When the long tail becomes large, three things happen: • the margin lifts • gross profit rises • cash flow becomes positive even with high UA investments Therefore, EBITDAC goes from 8 → 124 MSEK in the model. MAG goes from “growth machine” to “cash machine”. ⸻ 💡 3. Growth becomes self-financed When every UA-krona doubles itself over 2–3 years, no external capital is needed. This is MAG's biggest advantage right now: • strong LTV • high ROAS • growing long tail • stable base portfolio Together, they enable MAG to grow without diluting shareholders – and still increase cash flow. ⸻ 💵 4. Cash Flow → Dividends In the model we see: • 2027: cash flow truly becomes positive • 2028: strong cash flow even with continued UA • 2029: really strong cash flow This means: 2028 → room for dividend with potential for a second dividend of 1 kr/share — same level as the first. This is not optimism. It is a logical consequence of a model where the long tail is large and growth finances itself. Part 4 thus shows the turning point: The growth machine becomes a cash machine – and the cash machine can become a dividend machine. ⸻ 📅 Part 5 comes tomorrow 🔜 The Goal: from growth to dividend (2028 →) The finale ties together the model, cash flow, and valuation.
- ·3 päivää sitten💎 Part 3 – The Tail: the value built in silence This is one of the series' most important parts. Because it is the tail that explains: • why UA is profitable • why 2028–2029 will be strong years • why cash flow is lifting • why the valuation should go up • why MAG's model is stable despite quarterly fluctuations Many underestimate the tail – but it is MAG's true goldmine. ⸻ 🌱 1. What is the tail – really? The tail is the revenue that continues to come long after the UA money is spent. When MAG acquires users in e.g. Q1, three things happen: 1️⃣ Revenue in Q1 (payback) 2️⃣ Revenue in Q2–Q4 from the same cohort 3️⃣ Ongoing revenue the year after (the tail) It is the tail that creates the long-term value. The tail is therefore: • stable • predictable • high-margin • recurring • and growing as cohorts grow ⸻ 📈 2. The “Revenue” image shows the entire mechanism In the graph, we see that revenues: • grow • broaden • are stabilized by a growing cohort • increase as the tail grows It's not just Crozzle. It's the entire portfolio that pulls: • Wordzee • QuizDuel • other stable titles • and upcoming new games with Crozzle key figures When a game reaches the right retention + ARPDAU → the tail is built automatically. ⸻ 🧩 3. The tail lifts all key figures simultaneously This is the beauty of it: When the tail grows, it affects: • Gross profit (less dependent on UA) • EBITDA (stronger margins) • EBIT (the model turns to profitability) • Operating cash flow (the real value) The tail is therefore: 💚 cash flow 💚 stability 💚 profitability 💚 valuation 💚 dividend capacity Everything is connected. ⸻ 🏗 4. Why the tail is MAG's big advantage compared to many competitors MAG has three key advantages: ✔ 1. Extremely strong retention in Crozzle This provides an exceptional tail curve. ✔ 2. Base portfolio with many long-lived games They are a tail in themselves. ✔ 3. New titles are built with the Crozzle model This is the most underestimated of all: MAG has several games in test that aim to replicate Crozzle's key figures. This means a multiple effect in the tail 2026–2029. ⸻ 💧 5. Therefore, operating cash flow lifts in Part 4 The tail is the reason for the big jump in cash flow: • 2026: UA build-up • 2027: return on previous UA • 2028: the tail takes over • 2029: the cash machine is activated It is the tail that makes: “MAG goes from growth machine to dividend machine.” The tail is therefore the bridge between Part 2 and Part 4. ⸻ 📅 Part 4 comes tomorrow 🔜 Cash flow: when growth starts to finance itself (Part 4 is one of the series' most powerful parts, visually and logically)
- ·14.11.🔥 Part 2 – UA investments: why margins fluctuate (and why that's good) UA (user acquisition) is one of the most misunderstood parts of mobile gaming companies. It's visible in almost every MAG discussion: • “Why do margins fluctuate so much?” • “Why is the gross margin lower in certain quarters?” • “Is it a problem or a sign of growth?” In this part, we go through exactly how the model works – and why fluctuating margins are actually a sign of strength in MAG's phase. ⸻ 🎯 1. UA is not a cost – it's investments in future revenues In the graph of UA investments, we clearly see how the level varies between the years. And that is completely intentional. When MAG sees: • good ROAS • strong LTV • high willingness to pay • effective marketing …then they scale up UA to build revenues in the long term. The important thing is this: ✔ UA costs today ✔ but builds revenues for months and years afterwards It's like sowing seeds. The margin drops now – the tail grows later. ⸻ 📉 2. Game Contribution 2 – the key to understanding the fluctuations Here comes perhaps the most important image in the series: Game Contribution 2. It shows exactly how much the growth investments “push down” the result before the revenues have time to come in. • High UA → Game Contribution 2 more negative • Lower UA → Game Contribution 2 improves • The tail from previous UA → drives Game Contribution 3 upwards This means: ✔ Margins are not “volatile” ✔ They follow the UA level with a time delay And that is completely normal in this business model. ⸻ 🔁 3. UA → Payback → Tail (the real model behind MAG's future profit) This is what the value flow looks like: 1️⃣ UA investment – money out now 2️⃣ Payback within the quarter – the first wave of revenues from new users 3️⃣ The Tail (Game Contribution 3) – the ongoing revenue that comes for months and years It's the tail that lifts the entire model. And that's why it's so important to understand UA in the right perspective. ⸻ 💰 4. Why fluctuating margins are positive in MAG's phase In the graph of Game Contribution = gross profit, the pattern is clearly visible: • Gross profit increases over time • The tail becomes a larger and larger part • And the margin lifts when UA decreases It is a sign of: • high ROI on UA • strong LTV • a growing cohort • and a model that works in practice In other industries, fluctuations are a problem. In mobile games, it's proof that the machine is working. MAG earns less today – to earn more tomorrow. ⸻ 🧭 5. The important thing for 2026–2028 In the model, we see that: • 2026–2027 are expansion years • 2027–2028 yields rising revenues and tail • 2028–2029 lifts the cash flow significantly It is the path towards dividend capacity (Part 5). And it all starts with understanding UA. ⸻ 📅 Part 3 comes tomorrow 🔜 The Tail – the value built in silence One of the most eye-opening parts of the series.
- ·13.11.⭐ Part 1 – The Revenue Engine: why Crozzle changes everything If you want to understand MAG's journey 2026–2028, there's one question more important than all others: What actually drives revenues – and why is everything pointing upwards? Many investors look quarter to quarter. But if you look two–three years ahead, a clear picture emerges: Crozzle has changed the entire revenue profile. And this is where the journey begins. ⸻ 📈 1. The new revenue mix – Crozzle lifts the whole In the revenue graph, we see three clear components: • Base revenues (Wordzee, QuizDuel, etc.) remain at a stable level. • The Crozzle tail grows strongly year by year. • Payback revenues (new users via UA) fill up the top. The important point: ➜ Crozzle is a true evergreen Revenues continue to grow long after launch – just like Wordzee, but with significantly stronger key metrics. That's why net sales in our models go from 275 → 662 MSEK in just three years. Crozzle provides both upside and stability. ⸻ 💰 2. Gross profit – the foundation for everything that comes later Game contribution = gross profit. These are revenues minus platform costs and UA investments. Here we immediately see the effect of Crozzle: • Gross profit is around 150 MSEK at the beginning • …but rises to almost 300 MSEK at the end of the period That's a doubling. At the same time, the line “Game contribution 3 – Crozzle tail” shows how much value is being built quietly: • 3 MSEK → 41 → 127 → 218 → 219 It is this tail that will later lift the cash flow. Gross margin fluctuates depending on the level of UA investments, but the trend is clear: the more tail, the higher the margin. ⸻ 🌱 3. The revenue engine is running – and the rest builds on it It's easy to believe that margins fluctuate because “things are going badly”. But when you see how revenues, gross profit, and the tail grow together, the message is the opposite: MAG is now investing to grow – and this is first seen in revenues, then in gross profit, and finally in cash flow. This is the core of MAG's three-year journey. Part 1 is about understanding why revenues are getting stronger year by year. Only in Part 2 will we delve into why margins fluctuate – and why it is actually a sign of strength. ⸻ 📅 Part 2 comes tomorrow 🔜 UA investments – why margins fluctuate (and why that's good) It will be one of the most important parts of the series.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
First North Sweden
Määrä
Osto
3 288
Myynti
Määrä
1 123
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 662 | - | - | ||
| 509 | - | - | ||
| 541 | - | - |
Ylin
8,8VWAP
Alin
8,74VaihtoMäärä
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Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
| 2026 Q1-osavuosiraportti | 21.1.2026 |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4-osavuosiraportti | 22.10. | |
| 2025 Q3-osavuosiraportti | 25.6. | |
| 2025 Q2-osavuosiraportti | 2.4. | |
| 2025 Q1-osavuosiraportti | 22.1. | |
| 2024 Yhtiökokous | 22.1. |
Datan lähde: Millistream, Quartr
Q4-osavuosiraportti
28 päivää sitten‧15 min
Uutiset ja analyysit
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Yhtiötapahtumat
| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
| 2026 Q1-osavuosiraportti | 21.1.2026 |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4-osavuosiraportti | 22.10. | |
| 2025 Q3-osavuosiraportti | 25.6. | |
| 2025 Q2-osavuosiraportti | 2.4. | |
| 2025 Q1-osavuosiraportti | 22.1. | |
| 2024 Yhtiökokous | 22.1. |
Datan lähde: Millistream, Quartr
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- ·1 päivä sitten🏆 Part 5 – The Goal: from growth to dividend (2028 →) We have now reached the series' endpoint. After having reviewed the revenue engine, the UA model, the tail, and the cash flow, one question remains: 👉 What does all this lead to? The answer lies in the three images below. Together, they show MAG's three-year journey – and why the company is entering a completely new phase. ⸻ 💧 1. Cash flow becomes strong – growth starts to sustain itself The graph of operating cash flow shows the turning point: • 2026: low level • 2027: clear improvement • 2028: strong uplift • 2029: 124 MSEK in operating cash flow This is the effect of the entire machine: • UA → new players • The tail → recurring revenue • LTV & ROAS → self-financing growth When players themselves pay for growth, everything changes. That is exactly where MAG is now headed. ⸻ 🧩 2. The group level confirms the shift – the model holds all the way down to EBIT In the group overview, we see how the journey takes shape: • EBITDAC: 8 → 124 MSEK • EBITDA: 53 → 166 MSEK • EBIT: –11 → +106 MSEK • EBITDA margin: up to 27 % This is not a quarterly phenomenon. It is a structural change driven by: • the tail grows • the core portfolio continues to deliver • Crozzle contributes strongly • UA provides increasingly better payback When the tail becomes large enough, the result truly lifts. ⸻ 💵 3. The Valuation – what MAG could be worth in the next phase When we adjust for the growth cost (Game Contribution 2), we get a fairer picture of MAG's underlying profitability. In the valuation graph, we see: • UA-adjusted EBITDA: 62 → 95 → 167 → 242 → 240 MSEK • Multiples of 6–8.5x are conservative • Gives a reasonable share price of: 17 kr → 25 kr → 43 kr → 64 kr → 86 kr This is not wishful thinking. It is a consequence of the model when both tail and cash flow grow. When the market starts to value MAG based on cash flow and recurring revenue – that's when the re-pricing occurs. ⸻ 💰 4. Cash flow → dividends (2028 →) The model shows: • 2027: cash flow becomes stably positive • 2028: strong surplus even with continued UA • 2029: very strong cash flow This means: 2028 → room for dividend at the same level as the first: 1 kr/share. And thereafter: • 2029 → greater dividend capacity • 2030 → possibility for buybacks + regular dividend This is the endpoint in MAG's journey from: growth machine → cash machine → dividend machine. ⸻ 🌱 5. A final reflection on sustainable growth Affärsvärlden recently questioned MAG's ability to grow sustainably. It is a legitimate question – but the answer lies in the company's strategy. It's not just Crozzle. MAG has several titles in test with the same goal: • high retention • strong monetization • low churn • long tail • global potential Crozzle shows that the model works. The upcoming games show that the model can be repeated. That is why sustainable growth is not only possible – but built into MAG's long-term plan. ⸻ 📚 Missed a part? Here is the whole series 🔹 Intro – MAG's three-year journey 🔹 Part 1 – The Revenue Engine 🔹 Part 2 – UA Investments 🔹 Part 3 – The Tail 🔹 Part 4 – The Cash Flow 🔹 Part 5 – The Goal: from growth to dividend ⸻ ⭐ Thank you for following the series This was my most thoroughly elaborated MAG analysis to date. Hope it has created both clarity and curiosity for the journey that lies ahead of us.
- ·2 päivää sitten💧 Part 4 – Cash Flow: when growth starts to finance itself Most analyze MAG based on results, margins, and quarterly fluctuations. But the most important parameter in the entire model is cash flow. Because when a company reaches that point – that growth is financed by the players themselves – then everything changes. MAG is just entering that phase. ⸻ 🧩 1. From UA cost → long tail → cash flow MAG's business model boils down to three steps: 1️⃣ UA costs (Spelbidrag 2 becomes negative) 2️⃣ The long tail is built (Spelbidrag 3 grows) 3️⃣ Cash flow rises (EBITDAC increases) It is extremely clear in the graph of operating cash flow: • 2026: almost nothing • 2027: starts to lift off • 2028: sharply up • 2029: 124 MSEK in operating cash flow UA is therefore not a cost – but an investment in future cash flow. ⸻ 📈 2. Why cash flow explodes after 2027 It's about the long tail. The revenue graph shows that the Crozzle-long tail grows every year. When the long tail becomes large, three things happen: • the margin lifts • gross profit rises • cash flow becomes positive even with high UA investments Therefore, EBITDAC goes from 8 → 124 MSEK in the model. MAG goes from “growth machine” to “cash machine”. ⸻ 💡 3. Growth becomes self-financed When every UA-krona doubles itself over 2–3 years, no external capital is needed. This is MAG's biggest advantage right now: • strong LTV • high ROAS • growing long tail • stable base portfolio Together, they enable MAG to grow without diluting shareholders – and still increase cash flow. ⸻ 💵 4. Cash Flow → Dividends In the model we see: • 2027: cash flow truly becomes positive • 2028: strong cash flow even with continued UA • 2029: really strong cash flow This means: 2028 → room for dividend with potential for a second dividend of 1 kr/share — same level as the first. This is not optimism. It is a logical consequence of a model where the long tail is large and growth finances itself. Part 4 thus shows the turning point: The growth machine becomes a cash machine – and the cash machine can become a dividend machine. ⸻ 📅 Part 5 comes tomorrow 🔜 The Goal: from growth to dividend (2028 →) The finale ties together the model, cash flow, and valuation.
- ·3 päivää sitten💎 Part 3 – The Tail: the value built in silence This is one of the series' most important parts. Because it is the tail that explains: • why UA is profitable • why 2028–2029 will be strong years • why cash flow is lifting • why the valuation should go up • why MAG's model is stable despite quarterly fluctuations Many underestimate the tail – but it is MAG's true goldmine. ⸻ 🌱 1. What is the tail – really? The tail is the revenue that continues to come long after the UA money is spent. When MAG acquires users in e.g. Q1, three things happen: 1️⃣ Revenue in Q1 (payback) 2️⃣ Revenue in Q2–Q4 from the same cohort 3️⃣ Ongoing revenue the year after (the tail) It is the tail that creates the long-term value. The tail is therefore: • stable • predictable • high-margin • recurring • and growing as cohorts grow ⸻ 📈 2. The “Revenue” image shows the entire mechanism In the graph, we see that revenues: • grow • broaden • are stabilized by a growing cohort • increase as the tail grows It's not just Crozzle. It's the entire portfolio that pulls: • Wordzee • QuizDuel • other stable titles • and upcoming new games with Crozzle key figures When a game reaches the right retention + ARPDAU → the tail is built automatically. ⸻ 🧩 3. The tail lifts all key figures simultaneously This is the beauty of it: When the tail grows, it affects: • Gross profit (less dependent on UA) • EBITDA (stronger margins) • EBIT (the model turns to profitability) • Operating cash flow (the real value) The tail is therefore: 💚 cash flow 💚 stability 💚 profitability 💚 valuation 💚 dividend capacity Everything is connected. ⸻ 🏗 4. Why the tail is MAG's big advantage compared to many competitors MAG has three key advantages: ✔ 1. Extremely strong retention in Crozzle This provides an exceptional tail curve. ✔ 2. Base portfolio with many long-lived games They are a tail in themselves. ✔ 3. New titles are built with the Crozzle model This is the most underestimated of all: MAG has several games in test that aim to replicate Crozzle's key figures. This means a multiple effect in the tail 2026–2029. ⸻ 💧 5. Therefore, operating cash flow lifts in Part 4 The tail is the reason for the big jump in cash flow: • 2026: UA build-up • 2027: return on previous UA • 2028: the tail takes over • 2029: the cash machine is activated It is the tail that makes: “MAG goes from growth machine to dividend machine.” The tail is therefore the bridge between Part 2 and Part 4. ⸻ 📅 Part 4 comes tomorrow 🔜 Cash flow: when growth starts to finance itself (Part 4 is one of the series' most powerful parts, visually and logically)
- ·14.11.🔥 Part 2 – UA investments: why margins fluctuate (and why that's good) UA (user acquisition) is one of the most misunderstood parts of mobile gaming companies. It's visible in almost every MAG discussion: • “Why do margins fluctuate so much?” • “Why is the gross margin lower in certain quarters?” • “Is it a problem or a sign of growth?” In this part, we go through exactly how the model works – and why fluctuating margins are actually a sign of strength in MAG's phase. ⸻ 🎯 1. UA is not a cost – it's investments in future revenues In the graph of UA investments, we clearly see how the level varies between the years. And that is completely intentional. When MAG sees: • good ROAS • strong LTV • high willingness to pay • effective marketing …then they scale up UA to build revenues in the long term. The important thing is this: ✔ UA costs today ✔ but builds revenues for months and years afterwards It's like sowing seeds. The margin drops now – the tail grows later. ⸻ 📉 2. Game Contribution 2 – the key to understanding the fluctuations Here comes perhaps the most important image in the series: Game Contribution 2. It shows exactly how much the growth investments “push down” the result before the revenues have time to come in. • High UA → Game Contribution 2 more negative • Lower UA → Game Contribution 2 improves • The tail from previous UA → drives Game Contribution 3 upwards This means: ✔ Margins are not “volatile” ✔ They follow the UA level with a time delay And that is completely normal in this business model. ⸻ 🔁 3. UA → Payback → Tail (the real model behind MAG's future profit) This is what the value flow looks like: 1️⃣ UA investment – money out now 2️⃣ Payback within the quarter – the first wave of revenues from new users 3️⃣ The Tail (Game Contribution 3) – the ongoing revenue that comes for months and years It's the tail that lifts the entire model. And that's why it's so important to understand UA in the right perspective. ⸻ 💰 4. Why fluctuating margins are positive in MAG's phase In the graph of Game Contribution = gross profit, the pattern is clearly visible: • Gross profit increases over time • The tail becomes a larger and larger part • And the margin lifts when UA decreases It is a sign of: • high ROI on UA • strong LTV • a growing cohort • and a model that works in practice In other industries, fluctuations are a problem. In mobile games, it's proof that the machine is working. MAG earns less today – to earn more tomorrow. ⸻ 🧭 5. The important thing for 2026–2028 In the model, we see that: • 2026–2027 are expansion years • 2027–2028 yields rising revenues and tail • 2028–2029 lifts the cash flow significantly It is the path towards dividend capacity (Part 5). And it all starts with understanding UA. ⸻ 📅 Part 3 comes tomorrow 🔜 The Tail – the value built in silence One of the most eye-opening parts of the series.
- ·13.11.⭐ Part 1 – The Revenue Engine: why Crozzle changes everything If you want to understand MAG's journey 2026–2028, there's one question more important than all others: What actually drives revenues – and why is everything pointing upwards? Many investors look quarter to quarter. But if you look two–three years ahead, a clear picture emerges: Crozzle has changed the entire revenue profile. And this is where the journey begins. ⸻ 📈 1. The new revenue mix – Crozzle lifts the whole In the revenue graph, we see three clear components: • Base revenues (Wordzee, QuizDuel, etc.) remain at a stable level. • The Crozzle tail grows strongly year by year. • Payback revenues (new users via UA) fill up the top. The important point: ➜ Crozzle is a true evergreen Revenues continue to grow long after launch – just like Wordzee, but with significantly stronger key metrics. That's why net sales in our models go from 275 → 662 MSEK in just three years. Crozzle provides both upside and stability. ⸻ 💰 2. Gross profit – the foundation for everything that comes later Game contribution = gross profit. These are revenues minus platform costs and UA investments. Here we immediately see the effect of Crozzle: • Gross profit is around 150 MSEK at the beginning • …but rises to almost 300 MSEK at the end of the period That's a doubling. At the same time, the line “Game contribution 3 – Crozzle tail” shows how much value is being built quietly: • 3 MSEK → 41 → 127 → 218 → 219 It is this tail that will later lift the cash flow. Gross margin fluctuates depending on the level of UA investments, but the trend is clear: the more tail, the higher the margin. ⸻ 🌱 3. The revenue engine is running – and the rest builds on it It's easy to believe that margins fluctuate because “things are going badly”. But when you see how revenues, gross profit, and the tail grow together, the message is the opposite: MAG is now investing to grow – and this is first seen in revenues, then in gross profit, and finally in cash flow. This is the core of MAG's three-year journey. Part 1 is about understanding why revenues are getting stronger year by year. Only in Part 2 will we delve into why margins fluctuate – and why it is actually a sign of strength. ⸻ 📅 Part 2 comes tomorrow 🔜 UA investments – why margins fluctuate (and why that's good) It will be one of the most important parts of the series.
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