Tunnusluvut
Riskitaso
?
Korkea: 6 / 7
Huomioi, että vaikka osakerahastoihin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Tunnusluvut
- Juoksevat kulut1,40%
- OmaisuusluokkaOsake
- KategoriaSektori arvometallit osakkeet
- PerusvaluuttaEUR
- Lainoitusaste70%
- Avaintietoasiakirja
Tietoa rahastosta
The focus is on Global Precious Metal Mining Company with a special focus on transferable securities whose value development is affected by the market development for Silver.
Vastaavan tyyppisiä rahastoja
Omistukset
Päivitetty 30.4.2026
Jakauma
- Osakkeet96,1%
- Muut3,5%
- Lyhyt korko0,4%
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
7 t sitten7 t sittenTrump’s own framing holds. He called it a “solid 50/50” whether he lands a “good” deal or “blows them to kingdom come” This weekend hands the market one of the cleanest binary risk events of the entire conflict. In a phone interview with Axios on Saturday, Donald Trump put the odds on the outcome himself: a “solid 50/50” between a good deal and what he described as hitting Iran harder than they have ever been hit. The President was due to meet his negotiators later the same day — Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, with JD Vance expected in the room — to review Tehran’s latest response, and a decision could come as early as Sunday. In other words, the market risks opening Monday into a materially different landscape than the one we left on Friday. At the same time, the diplomatic track looks more concrete than it has in a while. The Financial Times reports that the parties are closing in on a 60-day extension of the ceasefire, tied to a framework for further negotiations. The outlined content includes a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, discussions over Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, sanctions relief, and a gradual unfreezing of frozen Iranian assets. Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir described his visit to Tehran as “highly productive,” and Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed “some progress,” hinting that there could be news in the coming days. Iran, for its part, says it is “putting the finishing touches on a memorandum of understanding,” while stressing that the nuclear question is not part of the initial framework. For those of us trading energy exposure, it is worth noting how oil has already positioned itself. Brent settled Friday at around $103.5 a barrel, after touching $106 early in the session, and fell more than 5% on the week. The market is therefore increasingly pricing in that a deal actually gets done. That cuts two ways: a confirmed outcome with a phased Hormuz reopening probably leaves limited downside from here, since much has already been taken out, while a breakdown where “the bombs fall” could trigger a sharp repricing precisely because that scenario is no longer fully discounted. The risk asymmetry therefore points upward in the near term, even if the underlying direction on a deal is lower. There is also reason to temper any expectation that a signature solves everything. Positions on both the nuclear question and control of Hormuz itself are still described as diametrically opposed, and several core disputes will likely persist even if a memorandum of understanding is signed. The question of permanent “tolls” for tankers transiting the strait — which Iran is reportedly coordinating with Oman, and which Trump has rejected outright, insisting the waterway stay open and toll-free — is exactly the kind of detail that could topple the whole framework. Rubio has previously called a deal “unfeasible” if Iran seeks lasting control over shipping traffic. My own approach into the weekend is to treat this as pure event risk rather than a directional trade. When the President himself calls it 50/50, that is not a level where I want large directional exposure without being comfortable with both outcomes simultaneously. Anyone sitting heavy in energy should be aware that the Monday open can move violently in either direction, and anyone considering taking a position should do so with eyes open to the fact that this is, in practice, a coin flip governed by one man’s decision over the span of a single day. Sources • Axios — “Trump says he’s ‘50/50’ on Iran deal or bombs, will meet envoys to decide” (23 May 2026): https://www.axios.com/2026/05/23/trump-iran-deal-resume-war-interview • Financial Times via CNBC — “U.S. and Iran are closing in on a 60-day ceasefire extension” (23 May 2026): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/23/us-iran-war-talks.html • CNBC — “Oil prices post weekly loss as U.S. and Iran signal progress toward a deal” (22 May 2026): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/22/oil-prices-today-trump-iran-strait-of-hormuz-uranium-.html • Trading Economics — Brent crude oil price data (22 May 2026): https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil • Iran International — Live blog on Iran talks (23 May 2026): https://www.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/202605238115- 15 t sitten15 t sittenSilver in the Crossfire – Three Macro Drivers Shaping the Next Move Silver (SI) is trading around $76 on Friday, down on the day. Investtech’s medium-term technical analysis indicates that the metal has broken out of the rising trend channel that lifted prices sharply through 2025 and into early 2026. The technical picture has weakened accordingly — but it is three macro drivers in particular that explain why silver is now consolidating, and what is likely to determine the next major directional move. - ## 1. The Fed and Real Yields The most important near-term driver for silver is the trajectory of US real interest rates. When the Fed signals rate cuts, real yields typically decline and the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding metal falls. Historically, silver has often moved more forcefully than gold through such easing cycles. April CPI came in above expectations, and markets swiftly reduced their bets on early rate cuts. The Fed has meanwhile held its target rate in the 3.50–3.75% range across several consecutive meetings. As long as inflation remains above target and the labor market stays relatively resilient, the Fed appears unlikely to signal aggressive easing anytime soon. This means the monetary catalyst that contributed to silver’s powerful rally earlier this year is currently on pause. The area around $90 consequently appears as a heavy resistance zone for as long as markets do not begin pricing in earlier and more substantial rate cuts. ----- ## 2. Hormuz and the Geopolitical Dimension The situation around the Strait of Hormuz is at the same time a double-edged sword for silver. Higher oil prices contribute to inflationary pressure and make the Fed more cautious — which in isolation is negative for silver. At the same time, elevated geopolitical risk increases demand for safe-haven assets. Roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade passes through Hormuz. Any disruption to that traffic therefore moves quickly through energy markets and global inflation expectations. What is notable is that the geopolitical situation is simultaneously keeping inflation elevated and supporting safe-haven demand for precious metals. This helps explain why silver has continued to find support even after its sharp correction from the highs reached earlier in 2026. ----- ## 3. The Structural Supply Deficit Over the longer term, the structural supply deficit remains an important fundamental argument for silver. The Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey 2026 projects a sixth consecutive year of physical market deficit — the largest on record at 215 million ounces — while industrial demand from solar panels, electrification, AI infrastructure, and defense continues to grow. Mine supply is also slow to respond to higher prices. New projects typically take many years from investment decision to actual production, which means there is no near-term supply response capable of closing the gap. The gold-to-silver ratio remains historically elevated. In previous cycles, similar ratio levels have often been followed by periods in which silver outperforms gold over time — though near-term timing is difficult. ----- ## The Overall Picture The silver market appears for now caught between several competing forces. The Fed and elevated real yields cap the upside. Geopolitical uncertainty and the persistent physical deficit provide support on the downside. The result is a market characterized by consolidation rather than a clear directional trend. What could trigger the next significant rally is either softer inflation data that reopens the case for earlier Fed cuts, or a geopolitical normalization that reduces energy price pressures without triggering a broad growth slowdown. I am following this closely through my exposure in AuAg Silver Bullet. ----- **Sources:** - CME FedWatch Tool — <https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html> - Silver Institute, World Silver Survey 2026 — <https://silverinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/World-Silver-Survey-2026.pdf> - Silver Institute, sixth consecutive deficit announcement — <https://silverinstitute.org/global-silver-investment-to-remain-strong-in-2026-against-the-backdrop-of-a-sixth-consecutive-annual-market-deficit/> - S&P Global Commodities at Sea / Hormuz factbox — <https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/refined-products/030426-factbox-hormuz-oil-flows-still-at-a-standstill-despite-us-insurance-pledge> - CRS Report R45281, Congress.gov — <https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45281> - Investtech technical analysis — <https://www.investtech.com>
·1 päivä sittenUnfortunately, I must say that I have lost a bit of faith in this fund as it seems that interest rates in Trumpland perhaps must be increased. How it plays out with a new central bank governor is an open question. The war against Iran never ends, even though Trump claims the opposite. Before this happens, the silver price is "fucked". When the national debt is to be repaid in addition to increasing inflation, it looks quite bad. I have therefore unfortunately sold everything, but would gladly re-enter if the situation changes!
1 päivä sitten1 päivä sittenNAV 21.05.26 @ -0,50%
·1 päivä sittenThanks! Can add that the new price is 42.03.- 1 päivä sitten · Muokattu1 päivä sitten · MuokattuSilver back in rising trend channel – is $90 the next target? After a period of consolidation, silver (SI) has returned inside the rising trend channel that has been intact since autumn 2024. As of May 21, the contract trades at $76.73, up 0.72% on the day. Technical analysis from Investtech confirms the structure: the trend channel has remained orderly throughout the entire advance from the $30 level, and current price action shows that the channel floor around $68 is acting as solid support. As long as this level holds, the technical path points higher. The next natural resistance level sits at $90.00, representing upside of 17.3% from current levels. This is a level the market tested in January 2026, and a renewed approach would constitute a strong technical signal. Above there, the all-time high area around $117 opens up – an upside of over 50%. The fundamental backdrop continues to support the case: a structural demand surplus driven by industrial consumption and green energy transition, central bank gold buying lifting the broader precious metals complex, and a dollar and rate environment that is gradually turning more favorable. Technically, this is a trend channel worth respecting. A break below $68 would change the picture, but until then, the direction remains clear. Not financial advice. Do your own due diligence. Sources: • Investtech – Silver (SI) technical analysis: https://www.investtech.com • Silver Institute – World Silver Survey 2025 (supply/demand): https://www.silverinstitute.org/world-silver-survey/ • Kitco – Silver spot price and futures data: https://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html • World Gold Council – Central bank gold demand: https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/central-bank-gold-reserves
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Tunnusluvut
Riskitaso
?
Korkea: 6 / 7
Huomioi, että vaikka osakerahastoihin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Tunnusluvut
- Juoksevat kulut1,40%
- OmaisuusluokkaOsake
- KategoriaSektori arvometallit osakkeet
- PerusvaluuttaEUR
- Lainoitusaste70%
- Avaintietoasiakirja
Tietoa rahastosta
The focus is on Global Precious Metal Mining Company with a special focus on transferable securities whose value development is affected by the market development for Silver.
Vastaavan tyyppisiä rahastoja
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Omistukset
Päivitetty 30.4.2026
Jakauma
- Osakkeet96,1%
- Muut3,5%
- Lyhyt korko0,4%
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
- 7 t sitten7 t sittenTrump’s own framing holds. He called it a “solid 50/50” whether he lands a “good” deal or “blows them to kingdom come” This weekend hands the market one of the cleanest binary risk events of the entire conflict. In a phone interview with Axios on Saturday, Donald Trump put the odds on the outcome himself: a “solid 50/50” between a good deal and what he described as hitting Iran harder than they have ever been hit. The President was due to meet his negotiators later the same day — Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, with JD Vance expected in the room — to review Tehran’s latest response, and a decision could come as early as Sunday. In other words, the market risks opening Monday into a materially different landscape than the one we left on Friday. At the same time, the diplomatic track looks more concrete than it has in a while. The Financial Times reports that the parties are closing in on a 60-day extension of the ceasefire, tied to a framework for further negotiations. The outlined content includes a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, discussions over Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, sanctions relief, and a gradual unfreezing of frozen Iranian assets. Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir described his visit to Tehran as “highly productive,” and Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed “some progress,” hinting that there could be news in the coming days. Iran, for its part, says it is “putting the finishing touches on a memorandum of understanding,” while stressing that the nuclear question is not part of the initial framework. For those of us trading energy exposure, it is worth noting how oil has already positioned itself. Brent settled Friday at around $103.5 a barrel, after touching $106 early in the session, and fell more than 5% on the week. The market is therefore increasingly pricing in that a deal actually gets done. That cuts two ways: a confirmed outcome with a phased Hormuz reopening probably leaves limited downside from here, since much has already been taken out, while a breakdown where “the bombs fall” could trigger a sharp repricing precisely because that scenario is no longer fully discounted. The risk asymmetry therefore points upward in the near term, even if the underlying direction on a deal is lower. There is also reason to temper any expectation that a signature solves everything. Positions on both the nuclear question and control of Hormuz itself are still described as diametrically opposed, and several core disputes will likely persist even if a memorandum of understanding is signed. The question of permanent “tolls” for tankers transiting the strait — which Iran is reportedly coordinating with Oman, and which Trump has rejected outright, insisting the waterway stay open and toll-free — is exactly the kind of detail that could topple the whole framework. Rubio has previously called a deal “unfeasible” if Iran seeks lasting control over shipping traffic. My own approach into the weekend is to treat this as pure event risk rather than a directional trade. When the President himself calls it 50/50, that is not a level where I want large directional exposure without being comfortable with both outcomes simultaneously. Anyone sitting heavy in energy should be aware that the Monday open can move violently in either direction, and anyone considering taking a position should do so with eyes open to the fact that this is, in practice, a coin flip governed by one man’s decision over the span of a single day. Sources • Axios — “Trump says he’s ‘50/50’ on Iran deal or bombs, will meet envoys to decide” (23 May 2026): https://www.axios.com/2026/05/23/trump-iran-deal-resume-war-interview • Financial Times via CNBC — “U.S. and Iran are closing in on a 60-day ceasefire extension” (23 May 2026): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/23/us-iran-war-talks.html • CNBC — “Oil prices post weekly loss as U.S. and Iran signal progress toward a deal” (22 May 2026): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/22/oil-prices-today-trump-iran-strait-of-hormuz-uranium-.html • Trading Economics — Brent crude oil price data (22 May 2026): https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil • Iran International — Live blog on Iran talks (23 May 2026): https://www.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/202605238115
- 15 t sitten15 t sittenSilver in the Crossfire – Three Macro Drivers Shaping the Next Move Silver (SI) is trading around $76 on Friday, down on the day. Investtech’s medium-term technical analysis indicates that the metal has broken out of the rising trend channel that lifted prices sharply through 2025 and into early 2026. The technical picture has weakened accordingly — but it is three macro drivers in particular that explain why silver is now consolidating, and what is likely to determine the next major directional move. - ## 1. The Fed and Real Yields The most important near-term driver for silver is the trajectory of US real interest rates. When the Fed signals rate cuts, real yields typically decline and the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding metal falls. Historically, silver has often moved more forcefully than gold through such easing cycles. April CPI came in above expectations, and markets swiftly reduced their bets on early rate cuts. The Fed has meanwhile held its target rate in the 3.50–3.75% range across several consecutive meetings. As long as inflation remains above target and the labor market stays relatively resilient, the Fed appears unlikely to signal aggressive easing anytime soon. This means the monetary catalyst that contributed to silver’s powerful rally earlier this year is currently on pause. The area around $90 consequently appears as a heavy resistance zone for as long as markets do not begin pricing in earlier and more substantial rate cuts. ----- ## 2. Hormuz and the Geopolitical Dimension The situation around the Strait of Hormuz is at the same time a double-edged sword for silver. Higher oil prices contribute to inflationary pressure and make the Fed more cautious — which in isolation is negative for silver. At the same time, elevated geopolitical risk increases demand for safe-haven assets. Roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade passes through Hormuz. Any disruption to that traffic therefore moves quickly through energy markets and global inflation expectations. What is notable is that the geopolitical situation is simultaneously keeping inflation elevated and supporting safe-haven demand for precious metals. This helps explain why silver has continued to find support even after its sharp correction from the highs reached earlier in 2026. ----- ## 3. The Structural Supply Deficit Over the longer term, the structural supply deficit remains an important fundamental argument for silver. The Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey 2026 projects a sixth consecutive year of physical market deficit — the largest on record at 215 million ounces — while industrial demand from solar panels, electrification, AI infrastructure, and defense continues to grow. Mine supply is also slow to respond to higher prices. New projects typically take many years from investment decision to actual production, which means there is no near-term supply response capable of closing the gap. The gold-to-silver ratio remains historically elevated. In previous cycles, similar ratio levels have often been followed by periods in which silver outperforms gold over time — though near-term timing is difficult. ----- ## The Overall Picture The silver market appears for now caught between several competing forces. The Fed and elevated real yields cap the upside. Geopolitical uncertainty and the persistent physical deficit provide support on the downside. The result is a market characterized by consolidation rather than a clear directional trend. What could trigger the next significant rally is either softer inflation data that reopens the case for earlier Fed cuts, or a geopolitical normalization that reduces energy price pressures without triggering a broad growth slowdown. I am following this closely through my exposure in AuAg Silver Bullet. ----- **Sources:** - CME FedWatch Tool — <https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html> - Silver Institute, World Silver Survey 2026 — <https://silverinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/World-Silver-Survey-2026.pdf> - Silver Institute, sixth consecutive deficit announcement — <https://silverinstitute.org/global-silver-investment-to-remain-strong-in-2026-against-the-backdrop-of-a-sixth-consecutive-annual-market-deficit/> - S&P Global Commodities at Sea / Hormuz factbox — <https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/refined-products/030426-factbox-hormuz-oil-flows-still-at-a-standstill-despite-us-insurance-pledge> - CRS Report R45281, Congress.gov — <https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45281> - Investtech technical analysis — <https://www.investtech.com>
- ·1 päivä sittenUnfortunately, I must say that I have lost a bit of faith in this fund as it seems that interest rates in Trumpland perhaps must be increased. How it plays out with a new central bank governor is an open question. The war against Iran never ends, even though Trump claims the opposite. Before this happens, the silver price is "fucked". When the national debt is to be repaid in addition to increasing inflation, it looks quite bad. I have therefore unfortunately sold everything, but would gladly re-enter if the situation changes!
- 1 päivä sitten1 päivä sittenNAV 21.05.26 @ -0,50%·1 päivä sittenThanks! Can add that the new price is 42.03.
- 1 päivä sitten · Muokattu1 päivä sitten · MuokattuSilver back in rising trend channel – is $90 the next target? After a period of consolidation, silver (SI) has returned inside the rising trend channel that has been intact since autumn 2024. As of May 21, the contract trades at $76.73, up 0.72% on the day. Technical analysis from Investtech confirms the structure: the trend channel has remained orderly throughout the entire advance from the $30 level, and current price action shows that the channel floor around $68 is acting as solid support. As long as this level holds, the technical path points higher. The next natural resistance level sits at $90.00, representing upside of 17.3% from current levels. This is a level the market tested in January 2026, and a renewed approach would constitute a strong technical signal. Above there, the all-time high area around $117 opens up – an upside of over 50%. The fundamental backdrop continues to support the case: a structural demand surplus driven by industrial consumption and green energy transition, central bank gold buying lifting the broader precious metals complex, and a dollar and rate environment that is gradually turning more favorable. Technically, this is a trend channel worth respecting. A break below $68 would change the picture, but until then, the direction remains clear. Not financial advice. Do your own due diligence. Sources: • Investtech – Silver (SI) technical analysis: https://www.investtech.com • Silver Institute – World Silver Survey 2025 (supply/demand): https://www.silverinstitute.org/world-silver-survey/ • Kitco – Silver spot price and futures data: https://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html • World Gold Council – Central bank gold demand: https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/central-bank-gold-reserves
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tunnusluvut
Riskitaso
?
Korkea: 6 / 7
Huomioi, että vaikka osakerahastoihin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Tunnusluvut
- Juoksevat kulut1,40%
- OmaisuusluokkaOsake
- KategoriaSektori arvometallit osakkeet
- PerusvaluuttaEUR
- Lainoitusaste70%
- Avaintietoasiakirja
Tietoa rahastosta
The focus is on Global Precious Metal Mining Company with a special focus on transferable securities whose value development is affected by the market development for Silver.
Vastaavan tyyppisiä rahastoja
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
- 7 t sitten7 t sittenTrump’s own framing holds. He called it a “solid 50/50” whether he lands a “good” deal or “blows them to kingdom come” This weekend hands the market one of the cleanest binary risk events of the entire conflict. In a phone interview with Axios on Saturday, Donald Trump put the odds on the outcome himself: a “solid 50/50” between a good deal and what he described as hitting Iran harder than they have ever been hit. The President was due to meet his negotiators later the same day — Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, with JD Vance expected in the room — to review Tehran’s latest response, and a decision could come as early as Sunday. In other words, the market risks opening Monday into a materially different landscape than the one we left on Friday. At the same time, the diplomatic track looks more concrete than it has in a while. The Financial Times reports that the parties are closing in on a 60-day extension of the ceasefire, tied to a framework for further negotiations. The outlined content includes a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, discussions over Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, sanctions relief, and a gradual unfreezing of frozen Iranian assets. Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir described his visit to Tehran as “highly productive,” and Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed “some progress,” hinting that there could be news in the coming days. Iran, for its part, says it is “putting the finishing touches on a memorandum of understanding,” while stressing that the nuclear question is not part of the initial framework. For those of us trading energy exposure, it is worth noting how oil has already positioned itself. Brent settled Friday at around $103.5 a barrel, after touching $106 early in the session, and fell more than 5% on the week. The market is therefore increasingly pricing in that a deal actually gets done. That cuts two ways: a confirmed outcome with a phased Hormuz reopening probably leaves limited downside from here, since much has already been taken out, while a breakdown where “the bombs fall” could trigger a sharp repricing precisely because that scenario is no longer fully discounted. The risk asymmetry therefore points upward in the near term, even if the underlying direction on a deal is lower. There is also reason to temper any expectation that a signature solves everything. Positions on both the nuclear question and control of Hormuz itself are still described as diametrically opposed, and several core disputes will likely persist even if a memorandum of understanding is signed. The question of permanent “tolls” for tankers transiting the strait — which Iran is reportedly coordinating with Oman, and which Trump has rejected outright, insisting the waterway stay open and toll-free — is exactly the kind of detail that could topple the whole framework. Rubio has previously called a deal “unfeasible” if Iran seeks lasting control over shipping traffic. My own approach into the weekend is to treat this as pure event risk rather than a directional trade. When the President himself calls it 50/50, that is not a level where I want large directional exposure without being comfortable with both outcomes simultaneously. Anyone sitting heavy in energy should be aware that the Monday open can move violently in either direction, and anyone considering taking a position should do so with eyes open to the fact that this is, in practice, a coin flip governed by one man’s decision over the span of a single day. Sources • Axios — “Trump says he’s ‘50/50’ on Iran deal or bombs, will meet envoys to decide” (23 May 2026): https://www.axios.com/2026/05/23/trump-iran-deal-resume-war-interview • Financial Times via CNBC — “U.S. and Iran are closing in on a 60-day ceasefire extension” (23 May 2026): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/23/us-iran-war-talks.html • CNBC — “Oil prices post weekly loss as U.S. and Iran signal progress toward a deal” (22 May 2026): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/22/oil-prices-today-trump-iran-strait-of-hormuz-uranium-.html • Trading Economics — Brent crude oil price data (22 May 2026): https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil • Iran International — Live blog on Iran talks (23 May 2026): https://www.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/202605238115
- 15 t sitten15 t sittenSilver in the Crossfire – Three Macro Drivers Shaping the Next Move Silver (SI) is trading around $76 on Friday, down on the day. Investtech’s medium-term technical analysis indicates that the metal has broken out of the rising trend channel that lifted prices sharply through 2025 and into early 2026. The technical picture has weakened accordingly — but it is three macro drivers in particular that explain why silver is now consolidating, and what is likely to determine the next major directional move. - ## 1. The Fed and Real Yields The most important near-term driver for silver is the trajectory of US real interest rates. When the Fed signals rate cuts, real yields typically decline and the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding metal falls. Historically, silver has often moved more forcefully than gold through such easing cycles. April CPI came in above expectations, and markets swiftly reduced their bets on early rate cuts. The Fed has meanwhile held its target rate in the 3.50–3.75% range across several consecutive meetings. As long as inflation remains above target and the labor market stays relatively resilient, the Fed appears unlikely to signal aggressive easing anytime soon. This means the monetary catalyst that contributed to silver’s powerful rally earlier this year is currently on pause. The area around $90 consequently appears as a heavy resistance zone for as long as markets do not begin pricing in earlier and more substantial rate cuts. ----- ## 2. Hormuz and the Geopolitical Dimension The situation around the Strait of Hormuz is at the same time a double-edged sword for silver. Higher oil prices contribute to inflationary pressure and make the Fed more cautious — which in isolation is negative for silver. At the same time, elevated geopolitical risk increases demand for safe-haven assets. Roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade passes through Hormuz. Any disruption to that traffic therefore moves quickly through energy markets and global inflation expectations. What is notable is that the geopolitical situation is simultaneously keeping inflation elevated and supporting safe-haven demand for precious metals. This helps explain why silver has continued to find support even after its sharp correction from the highs reached earlier in 2026. ----- ## 3. The Structural Supply Deficit Over the longer term, the structural supply deficit remains an important fundamental argument for silver. The Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey 2026 projects a sixth consecutive year of physical market deficit — the largest on record at 215 million ounces — while industrial demand from solar panels, electrification, AI infrastructure, and defense continues to grow. Mine supply is also slow to respond to higher prices. New projects typically take many years from investment decision to actual production, which means there is no near-term supply response capable of closing the gap. The gold-to-silver ratio remains historically elevated. In previous cycles, similar ratio levels have often been followed by periods in which silver outperforms gold over time — though near-term timing is difficult. ----- ## The Overall Picture The silver market appears for now caught between several competing forces. The Fed and elevated real yields cap the upside. Geopolitical uncertainty and the persistent physical deficit provide support on the downside. The result is a market characterized by consolidation rather than a clear directional trend. What could trigger the next significant rally is either softer inflation data that reopens the case for earlier Fed cuts, or a geopolitical normalization that reduces energy price pressures without triggering a broad growth slowdown. I am following this closely through my exposure in AuAg Silver Bullet. ----- **Sources:** - CME FedWatch Tool — <https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html> - Silver Institute, World Silver Survey 2026 — <https://silverinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/World-Silver-Survey-2026.pdf> - Silver Institute, sixth consecutive deficit announcement — <https://silverinstitute.org/global-silver-investment-to-remain-strong-in-2026-against-the-backdrop-of-a-sixth-consecutive-annual-market-deficit/> - S&P Global Commodities at Sea / Hormuz factbox — <https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/refined-products/030426-factbox-hormuz-oil-flows-still-at-a-standstill-despite-us-insurance-pledge> - CRS Report R45281, Congress.gov — <https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45281> - Investtech technical analysis — <https://www.investtech.com>
- ·1 päivä sittenUnfortunately, I must say that I have lost a bit of faith in this fund as it seems that interest rates in Trumpland perhaps must be increased. How it plays out with a new central bank governor is an open question. The war against Iran never ends, even though Trump claims the opposite. Before this happens, the silver price is "fucked". When the national debt is to be repaid in addition to increasing inflation, it looks quite bad. I have therefore unfortunately sold everything, but would gladly re-enter if the situation changes!
- 1 päivä sitten1 päivä sittenNAV 21.05.26 @ -0,50%·1 päivä sittenThanks! Can add that the new price is 42.03.
- 1 päivä sitten · Muokattu1 päivä sitten · MuokattuSilver back in rising trend channel – is $90 the next target? After a period of consolidation, silver (SI) has returned inside the rising trend channel that has been intact since autumn 2024. As of May 21, the contract trades at $76.73, up 0.72% on the day. Technical analysis from Investtech confirms the structure: the trend channel has remained orderly throughout the entire advance from the $30 level, and current price action shows that the channel floor around $68 is acting as solid support. As long as this level holds, the technical path points higher. The next natural resistance level sits at $90.00, representing upside of 17.3% from current levels. This is a level the market tested in January 2026, and a renewed approach would constitute a strong technical signal. Above there, the all-time high area around $117 opens up – an upside of over 50%. The fundamental backdrop continues to support the case: a structural demand surplus driven by industrial consumption and green energy transition, central bank gold buying lifting the broader precious metals complex, and a dollar and rate environment that is gradually turning more favorable. Technically, this is a trend channel worth respecting. A break below $68 would change the picture, but until then, the direction remains clear. Not financial advice. Do your own due diligence. Sources: • Investtech – Silver (SI) technical analysis: https://www.investtech.com • Silver Institute – World Silver Survey 2025 (supply/demand): https://www.silverinstitute.org/world-silver-survey/ • Kitco – Silver spot price and futures data: https://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html • World Gold Council – Central bank gold demand: https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/central-bank-gold-reserves
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