Tunnusluvut
Riskitaso
?
Korkea: 6 / 7
Huomioi, että vaikka osakerahastoihin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Tunnusluvut
- Juoksevat kulut1,40%
- OmaisuusluokkaOsake
- KategoriaSektori arvometallit osakkeet
- PerusvaluuttaEUR
- Lainoitusaste70%
- Avaintietoasiakirja
Tietoa rahastosta
The focus is on Global Precious Metal Mining Company with a special focus on transferable securities whose value development is affected by the market development for Silver.
Vastaavan tyyppisiä rahastoja
Omistukset
Päivitetty 30.4.2026
Jakauma
- Osakkeet96,1%
- Muut3,5%
- Lyhyt korko0,4%
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
15 t sitten15 t sittenWhere Does the US Interest Rate End Up in 2027 – and Why Does It Matter for Markets? The Fed funds rate remains at 3.50–3.75% after three consecutive holds. Markets are now split between two very different outcomes for 2027, and the key question is simple: is today’s inflation structural, or temporary? Most major banks still expect cuts. Consensus points to 3.00–3.25% by end-2027. Morgan Stanley expects cuts in March and June 2027. Goldman Sachs sees the first cut in December 2026, while Bank of America also forecasts a move down to 3.00–3.25% during 2027. But another camp is emerging. JPMorgan expects no cuts in 2026 and instead sees a 25bp hike in Q3 2027, bringing rates to 3.75–4.00%. BNP Paribas goes even further, warning that three hikes from December 2026 could push rates to 4.25–4.50%. Markets are increasingly pricing the hawkish scenario. The 30-year Treasury yield has moved above 5%, the 10-year is back near 4.5%, and the 2-year Treasury has crossed 4% for the first time in almost a year. The inflation backdrop explains why. April CPI came in at 3.8% YoY, while PPI surged 6.0% YoY, the highest since 2022. Energy prices are up nearly 18% YoY after the Iran conflict disrupted supply through the Strait of Hormuz. This is where Morgan Stanley’s argument becomes critical. Their view is that energy-driven inflation is temporary by nature. Inflation does not require oil prices to fall. It only requires them to stop rising. Once markets begin comparing against already elevated 2026 oil prices, base effects alone could bring inflation lower during 2027. Morgan Stanley also notes that spillover into core inflation remains limited so far, with only sectors like airfares showing meaningful pass-through. Even the March FOMC minutes suggested markets expect the oil shock to be relatively short-lived. The real issue is duration. If elevated energy prices persist deep into H2 2026, companies may eventually pass costs into broader inflation. That is the dividing line between a temporary energy shock and structural inflation. This is the core disagreement between Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and BofA on one side, and JPMorgan and BNP Paribas on the other. For investors, the implications are massive. If the consensus is correct and the Fed cuts in 2027, that supports precious metals, growth equities and miners like Hochschild Mining through lower real yields and a weaker dollar. If JPMorgan and BNP are right, higher real yields and a stronger dollar become a major headwind for gold and silver. Markets currently lean toward the pessimistic scenario. If Morgan Stanley is right, there may be significant upside repricing ahead. Not investment advice. Always do your own research. Sources: • Morgan Stanley Fed note (TheStreet, 18 May 2026): https://www.thestreet.com/fed/morgan-stanley-updates-surprising-fed-rate-path-for-2027-with-two-rate-cuts-despite-bond-market-concerns-about-hikes • Morgan Stanley Mid-Year Outlook 2026: https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/economic-outlook-midyear-2026 • Morgan Stanley oil pass-through (Investing.com): https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/morgan-stanley-tariff-passthrough-easing-oil-impact-on-core-inflation-contained-4692475 • JPMorgan next move a hike (jpmorgan.com): https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts • Goldman Sachs delays cuts (TheStreet, 11 May 2026): https://www.thestreet.com/investing/goldman-sachs-sends-blunt-message-on-fed-interest-rate-cuts • BofA pushes to 2027 (CBS News, 8 May 2026): https://www.cbsnews.com/news/interest-rates-federal-reserve-inflation-bank-of-america/ • BNP Paribas hike warning (TheStreet): https://www.thestreet.com/fed/major-bank-drops-bombshell-on-fed-interest-rate-bets-despite-bond-market-warnings-of-upcoming-hikes • CME FedWatch hike odds (Forex.com, 15 May 2026): https://www.forex.com/en-ca/news-and-analysis/us-dollar-forecast-ppi-surge-puts-2026-fed-hike-in-play-usd-catch-up-trade/ • March 2026 FOMC Minutes (Federal Reserve): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260318.htm • Fed funds rate history (Trading Economics): https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate- 15 t sitten15 t sittenMorgan Stanley believes energy effects are temporary, potentially opening the door for rate cuts in 2027: What does this mean for Hochschild Mining (HOC)? The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.50–3.75% in April, in a dramatic 8–4 vote – the most divided since 1992. Powell stepped down on May 15. Kevin Warsh chairs the next meeting on June 16–17. Markets are now pricing in zero rate cuts for 2026. The major banks are far from aligned. Goldman Sachs expects cuts in December 2026 and March 2027. Bank of America has pushed its forecast to July/September 2027. JPMorgan believes the next move could actually be a hike. Morgan Stanley, however, argued on May 18 that energy-driven inflation from the Iran conflict is likely temporary, maintaining its call for two cuts in March and June 2027. DXY trades around 99.4 – down from the 103 peak in March. Hochschild continues to deliver HOC posted record results in 2025: EPS $0.39 (+105% YoY), revenue $1.18bn (+25%). In Q1 2026, the company realised a gold price of $4,471/oz and silver at $89.08/oz. Net cash swung to +$95m as of March 31, from –$23m at year-end. Full-year 2026 production guidance is maintained at 300,000–328,000 gold equivalent ounces. JPMorgan upgraded to Overweight with a 990p price target, forecasting EBITDA of $1.1bn in 2026 and $1.2bn in 2027 – more than doubling from 2025 levels. Analyst consensus sits at 800–814p versus the current share price of approximately 587p. Simply Wall St’s DCF model estimates intrinsic value at £11.24 per share. The 2028 growth case Royropata (Peru): ~3m oz gold equivalent, ~90% silver, average grades of 550g/t. Environmental permit submission targeted for August 2026, production start 2028. Monte do Carmo (Brazil): construction decision expected Q3 2026. Combined capex estimate ~$500m. From 2028, HOC could potentially reach ~400,000 oz gold and 10m oz silver annually. At $5,000 gold, this implies EPS near $0.90 – a modest multiple relative to the growth outlook. Structural silver drivers Six consecutive years of global silver supply deficits (~160–200m oz/year). Solar, EVs and AI hardware now account for over half of total global silver demand. Central banks continue buying gold at record pace. Russia explicitly included silver in its sovereign reserve programme for 2025–2027 – without historical precedent. Risks HOC has hedged 50,000 oz of gold at $2,167/oz for 2026 – well below spot. Beta 1.92, weekly volatility ~9%. Any rate hikes would push real yields higher and create headwinds for precious metals. Peruvian political risk and project execution remain key operational concerns. The balance sheet, cash flow and project pipeline look materially stronger than what the market is currently pricing in. If Morgan Stanley is right and inflation proves temporary, 2027 rate cuts could become a significant tailwind for gold, silver – and Hochschild. The question is how much of this is already priced in. Not investment advice. Always do your own research. Sources: • HOC Full Year Results 2025 (RNS, 11 March 2026): https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/hochschild-mining–hoc/preliminary-results-/9468117 • JPMorgan Overweight upgrade (Investing.com, 12 March 2026): https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/jpmorgan-upgrades-hochschild-mining-stock-rating-on-growth-outlook-93CH-4556128 • Q1 2026 operations update (AJ Bell, April 2026): https://www.ajbell.co.uk/news/articles/hochschild-mining-confirms-outlook-amid-strong-gold-and-silver-prices • Morgan Stanley Fed note (TheStreet, 18 May 2026): https://www.thestreet.com/fed/morgan-stanley-updates-surprising-fed-rate-path-for-2027-with-two-rate-cuts-despite-bond-market-concerns-about-hikes • Goldman Sachs delays cuts (TheStreet, 11 May 2026): https://www.thestreet.com/investing/goldman-sachs-sends-blunt-message-on-fed-interest-rate-cuts • BofA pushes to 2027 (CBS News, 8 May 2026): https://www.cbsnews.com/news/interest-rates-federal-reserve-inflation-bank-of-america/ • DXY May 2026 (Vantage Markets): https://www.vantagemarkets.com/market-analysis/us-dollar-forecast-dxy-iran-war-fed-hold-may-2026/ • Simply Wall St HOC analysis: https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/lse-hoc/hochschild-mining-shares/future
·1 päivä sittenDoes anyone have a link that shows what it will be tomorrow?
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Tunnusluvut
Riskitaso
?
Korkea: 6 / 7
Huomioi, että vaikka osakerahastoihin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Tunnusluvut
- Juoksevat kulut1,40%
- OmaisuusluokkaOsake
- KategoriaSektori arvometallit osakkeet
- PerusvaluuttaEUR
- Lainoitusaste70%
- Avaintietoasiakirja
Tietoa rahastosta
The focus is on Global Precious Metal Mining Company with a special focus on transferable securities whose value development is affected by the market development for Silver.
Vastaavan tyyppisiä rahastoja
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Omistukset
Päivitetty 30.4.2026
Jakauma
- Osakkeet96,1%
- Muut3,5%
- Lyhyt korko0,4%
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
- 15 t sitten15 t sittenWhere Does the US Interest Rate End Up in 2027 – and Why Does It Matter for Markets? The Fed funds rate remains at 3.50–3.75% after three consecutive holds. Markets are now split between two very different outcomes for 2027, and the key question is simple: is today’s inflation structural, or temporary? Most major banks still expect cuts. Consensus points to 3.00–3.25% by end-2027. Morgan Stanley expects cuts in March and June 2027. Goldman Sachs sees the first cut in December 2026, while Bank of America also forecasts a move down to 3.00–3.25% during 2027. But another camp is emerging. JPMorgan expects no cuts in 2026 and instead sees a 25bp hike in Q3 2027, bringing rates to 3.75–4.00%. BNP Paribas goes even further, warning that three hikes from December 2026 could push rates to 4.25–4.50%. Markets are increasingly pricing the hawkish scenario. The 30-year Treasury yield has moved above 5%, the 10-year is back near 4.5%, and the 2-year Treasury has crossed 4% for the first time in almost a year. The inflation backdrop explains why. April CPI came in at 3.8% YoY, while PPI surged 6.0% YoY, the highest since 2022. Energy prices are up nearly 18% YoY after the Iran conflict disrupted supply through the Strait of Hormuz. This is where Morgan Stanley’s argument becomes critical. Their view is that energy-driven inflation is temporary by nature. Inflation does not require oil prices to fall. It only requires them to stop rising. Once markets begin comparing against already elevated 2026 oil prices, base effects alone could bring inflation lower during 2027. Morgan Stanley also notes that spillover into core inflation remains limited so far, with only sectors like airfares showing meaningful pass-through. Even the March FOMC minutes suggested markets expect the oil shock to be relatively short-lived. The real issue is duration. If elevated energy prices persist deep into H2 2026, companies may eventually pass costs into broader inflation. That is the dividing line between a temporary energy shock and structural inflation. This is the core disagreement between Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and BofA on one side, and JPMorgan and BNP Paribas on the other. For investors, the implications are massive. If the consensus is correct and the Fed cuts in 2027, that supports precious metals, growth equities and miners like Hochschild Mining through lower real yields and a weaker dollar. If JPMorgan and BNP are right, higher real yields and a stronger dollar become a major headwind for gold and silver. Markets currently lean toward the pessimistic scenario. If Morgan Stanley is right, there may be significant upside repricing ahead. Not investment advice. Always do your own research. Sources: • Morgan Stanley Fed note (TheStreet, 18 May 2026): https://www.thestreet.com/fed/morgan-stanley-updates-surprising-fed-rate-path-for-2027-with-two-rate-cuts-despite-bond-market-concerns-about-hikes • Morgan Stanley Mid-Year Outlook 2026: https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/economic-outlook-midyear-2026 • Morgan Stanley oil pass-through (Investing.com): https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/morgan-stanley-tariff-passthrough-easing-oil-impact-on-core-inflation-contained-4692475 • JPMorgan next move a hike (jpmorgan.com): https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts • Goldman Sachs delays cuts (TheStreet, 11 May 2026): https://www.thestreet.com/investing/goldman-sachs-sends-blunt-message-on-fed-interest-rate-cuts • BofA pushes to 2027 (CBS News, 8 May 2026): https://www.cbsnews.com/news/interest-rates-federal-reserve-inflation-bank-of-america/ • BNP Paribas hike warning (TheStreet): https://www.thestreet.com/fed/major-bank-drops-bombshell-on-fed-interest-rate-bets-despite-bond-market-warnings-of-upcoming-hikes • CME FedWatch hike odds (Forex.com, 15 May 2026): https://www.forex.com/en-ca/news-and-analysis/us-dollar-forecast-ppi-surge-puts-2026-fed-hike-in-play-usd-catch-up-trade/ • March 2026 FOMC Minutes (Federal Reserve): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260318.htm • Fed funds rate history (Trading Economics): https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate
- 15 t sitten15 t sittenMorgan Stanley believes energy effects are temporary, potentially opening the door for rate cuts in 2027: What does this mean for Hochschild Mining (HOC)? The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.50–3.75% in April, in a dramatic 8–4 vote – the most divided since 1992. Powell stepped down on May 15. Kevin Warsh chairs the next meeting on June 16–17. Markets are now pricing in zero rate cuts for 2026. The major banks are far from aligned. Goldman Sachs expects cuts in December 2026 and March 2027. Bank of America has pushed its forecast to July/September 2027. JPMorgan believes the next move could actually be a hike. Morgan Stanley, however, argued on May 18 that energy-driven inflation from the Iran conflict is likely temporary, maintaining its call for two cuts in March and June 2027. DXY trades around 99.4 – down from the 103 peak in March. Hochschild continues to deliver HOC posted record results in 2025: EPS $0.39 (+105% YoY), revenue $1.18bn (+25%). In Q1 2026, the company realised a gold price of $4,471/oz and silver at $89.08/oz. Net cash swung to +$95m as of March 31, from –$23m at year-end. Full-year 2026 production guidance is maintained at 300,000–328,000 gold equivalent ounces. JPMorgan upgraded to Overweight with a 990p price target, forecasting EBITDA of $1.1bn in 2026 and $1.2bn in 2027 – more than doubling from 2025 levels. Analyst consensus sits at 800–814p versus the current share price of approximately 587p. Simply Wall St’s DCF model estimates intrinsic value at £11.24 per share. The 2028 growth case Royropata (Peru): ~3m oz gold equivalent, ~90% silver, average grades of 550g/t. Environmental permit submission targeted for August 2026, production start 2028. Monte do Carmo (Brazil): construction decision expected Q3 2026. Combined capex estimate ~$500m. From 2028, HOC could potentially reach ~400,000 oz gold and 10m oz silver annually. At $5,000 gold, this implies EPS near $0.90 – a modest multiple relative to the growth outlook. Structural silver drivers Six consecutive years of global silver supply deficits (~160–200m oz/year). Solar, EVs and AI hardware now account for over half of total global silver demand. Central banks continue buying gold at record pace. Russia explicitly included silver in its sovereign reserve programme for 2025–2027 – without historical precedent. Risks HOC has hedged 50,000 oz of gold at $2,167/oz for 2026 – well below spot. Beta 1.92, weekly volatility ~9%. Any rate hikes would push real yields higher and create headwinds for precious metals. Peruvian political risk and project execution remain key operational concerns. The balance sheet, cash flow and project pipeline look materially stronger than what the market is currently pricing in. If Morgan Stanley is right and inflation proves temporary, 2027 rate cuts could become a significant tailwind for gold, silver – and Hochschild. The question is how much of this is already priced in. Not investment advice. Always do your own research. Sources: • HOC Full Year Results 2025 (RNS, 11 March 2026): https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/hochschild-mining–hoc/preliminary-results-/9468117 • JPMorgan Overweight upgrade (Investing.com, 12 March 2026): https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/jpmorgan-upgrades-hochschild-mining-stock-rating-on-growth-outlook-93CH-4556128 • Q1 2026 operations update (AJ Bell, April 2026): https://www.ajbell.co.uk/news/articles/hochschild-mining-confirms-outlook-amid-strong-gold-and-silver-prices • Morgan Stanley Fed note (TheStreet, 18 May 2026): https://www.thestreet.com/fed/morgan-stanley-updates-surprising-fed-rate-path-for-2027-with-two-rate-cuts-despite-bond-market-concerns-about-hikes • Goldman Sachs delays cuts (TheStreet, 11 May 2026): https://www.thestreet.com/investing/goldman-sachs-sends-blunt-message-on-fed-interest-rate-cuts • BofA pushes to 2027 (CBS News, 8 May 2026): https://www.cbsnews.com/news/interest-rates-federal-reserve-inflation-bank-of-america/ • DXY May 2026 (Vantage Markets): https://www.vantagemarkets.com/market-analysis/us-dollar-forecast-dxy-iran-war-fed-hold-may-2026/ • Simply Wall St HOC analysis: https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/lse-hoc/hochschild-mining-shares/future
- ·1 päivä sittenDoes anyone have a link that shows what it will be tomorrow?
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tunnusluvut
Riskitaso
?
Korkea: 6 / 7
Huomioi, että vaikka osakerahastoihin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Tunnusluvut
- Juoksevat kulut1,40%
- OmaisuusluokkaOsake
- KategoriaSektori arvometallit osakkeet
- PerusvaluuttaEUR
- Lainoitusaste70%
- Avaintietoasiakirja
Tietoa rahastosta
The focus is on Global Precious Metal Mining Company with a special focus on transferable securities whose value development is affected by the market development for Silver.
Vastaavan tyyppisiä rahastoja
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
- 15 t sitten15 t sittenWhere Does the US Interest Rate End Up in 2027 – and Why Does It Matter for Markets? The Fed funds rate remains at 3.50–3.75% after three consecutive holds. Markets are now split between two very different outcomes for 2027, and the key question is simple: is today’s inflation structural, or temporary? Most major banks still expect cuts. Consensus points to 3.00–3.25% by end-2027. Morgan Stanley expects cuts in March and June 2027. Goldman Sachs sees the first cut in December 2026, while Bank of America also forecasts a move down to 3.00–3.25% during 2027. But another camp is emerging. JPMorgan expects no cuts in 2026 and instead sees a 25bp hike in Q3 2027, bringing rates to 3.75–4.00%. BNP Paribas goes even further, warning that three hikes from December 2026 could push rates to 4.25–4.50%. Markets are increasingly pricing the hawkish scenario. The 30-year Treasury yield has moved above 5%, the 10-year is back near 4.5%, and the 2-year Treasury has crossed 4% for the first time in almost a year. The inflation backdrop explains why. April CPI came in at 3.8% YoY, while PPI surged 6.0% YoY, the highest since 2022. Energy prices are up nearly 18% YoY after the Iran conflict disrupted supply through the Strait of Hormuz. This is where Morgan Stanley’s argument becomes critical. Their view is that energy-driven inflation is temporary by nature. Inflation does not require oil prices to fall. It only requires them to stop rising. Once markets begin comparing against already elevated 2026 oil prices, base effects alone could bring inflation lower during 2027. Morgan Stanley also notes that spillover into core inflation remains limited so far, with only sectors like airfares showing meaningful pass-through. Even the March FOMC minutes suggested markets expect the oil shock to be relatively short-lived. The real issue is duration. If elevated energy prices persist deep into H2 2026, companies may eventually pass costs into broader inflation. That is the dividing line between a temporary energy shock and structural inflation. This is the core disagreement between Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and BofA on one side, and JPMorgan and BNP Paribas on the other. For investors, the implications are massive. If the consensus is correct and the Fed cuts in 2027, that supports precious metals, growth equities and miners like Hochschild Mining through lower real yields and a weaker dollar. If JPMorgan and BNP are right, higher real yields and a stronger dollar become a major headwind for gold and silver. Markets currently lean toward the pessimistic scenario. If Morgan Stanley is right, there may be significant upside repricing ahead. Not investment advice. Always do your own research. Sources: • Morgan Stanley Fed note (TheStreet, 18 May 2026): https://www.thestreet.com/fed/morgan-stanley-updates-surprising-fed-rate-path-for-2027-with-two-rate-cuts-despite-bond-market-concerns-about-hikes • Morgan Stanley Mid-Year Outlook 2026: https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/economic-outlook-midyear-2026 • Morgan Stanley oil pass-through (Investing.com): https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/morgan-stanley-tariff-passthrough-easing-oil-impact-on-core-inflation-contained-4692475 • JPMorgan next move a hike (jpmorgan.com): https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts • Goldman Sachs delays cuts (TheStreet, 11 May 2026): https://www.thestreet.com/investing/goldman-sachs-sends-blunt-message-on-fed-interest-rate-cuts • BofA pushes to 2027 (CBS News, 8 May 2026): https://www.cbsnews.com/news/interest-rates-federal-reserve-inflation-bank-of-america/ • BNP Paribas hike warning (TheStreet): https://www.thestreet.com/fed/major-bank-drops-bombshell-on-fed-interest-rate-bets-despite-bond-market-warnings-of-upcoming-hikes • CME FedWatch hike odds (Forex.com, 15 May 2026): https://www.forex.com/en-ca/news-and-analysis/us-dollar-forecast-ppi-surge-puts-2026-fed-hike-in-play-usd-catch-up-trade/ • March 2026 FOMC Minutes (Federal Reserve): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260318.htm • Fed funds rate history (Trading Economics): https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate
- 15 t sitten15 t sittenMorgan Stanley believes energy effects are temporary, potentially opening the door for rate cuts in 2027: What does this mean for Hochschild Mining (HOC)? The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.50–3.75% in April, in a dramatic 8–4 vote – the most divided since 1992. Powell stepped down on May 15. Kevin Warsh chairs the next meeting on June 16–17. Markets are now pricing in zero rate cuts for 2026. The major banks are far from aligned. Goldman Sachs expects cuts in December 2026 and March 2027. Bank of America has pushed its forecast to July/September 2027. JPMorgan believes the next move could actually be a hike. Morgan Stanley, however, argued on May 18 that energy-driven inflation from the Iran conflict is likely temporary, maintaining its call for two cuts in March and June 2027. DXY trades around 99.4 – down from the 103 peak in March. Hochschild continues to deliver HOC posted record results in 2025: EPS $0.39 (+105% YoY), revenue $1.18bn (+25%). In Q1 2026, the company realised a gold price of $4,471/oz and silver at $89.08/oz. Net cash swung to +$95m as of March 31, from –$23m at year-end. Full-year 2026 production guidance is maintained at 300,000–328,000 gold equivalent ounces. JPMorgan upgraded to Overweight with a 990p price target, forecasting EBITDA of $1.1bn in 2026 and $1.2bn in 2027 – more than doubling from 2025 levels. Analyst consensus sits at 800–814p versus the current share price of approximately 587p. Simply Wall St’s DCF model estimates intrinsic value at £11.24 per share. The 2028 growth case Royropata (Peru): ~3m oz gold equivalent, ~90% silver, average grades of 550g/t. Environmental permit submission targeted for August 2026, production start 2028. Monte do Carmo (Brazil): construction decision expected Q3 2026. Combined capex estimate ~$500m. From 2028, HOC could potentially reach ~400,000 oz gold and 10m oz silver annually. At $5,000 gold, this implies EPS near $0.90 – a modest multiple relative to the growth outlook. Structural silver drivers Six consecutive years of global silver supply deficits (~160–200m oz/year). Solar, EVs and AI hardware now account for over half of total global silver demand. Central banks continue buying gold at record pace. Russia explicitly included silver in its sovereign reserve programme for 2025–2027 – without historical precedent. Risks HOC has hedged 50,000 oz of gold at $2,167/oz for 2026 – well below spot. Beta 1.92, weekly volatility ~9%. Any rate hikes would push real yields higher and create headwinds for precious metals. Peruvian political risk and project execution remain key operational concerns. The balance sheet, cash flow and project pipeline look materially stronger than what the market is currently pricing in. If Morgan Stanley is right and inflation proves temporary, 2027 rate cuts could become a significant tailwind for gold, silver – and Hochschild. The question is how much of this is already priced in. Not investment advice. Always do your own research. Sources: • HOC Full Year Results 2025 (RNS, 11 March 2026): https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/hochschild-mining–hoc/preliminary-results-/9468117 • JPMorgan Overweight upgrade (Investing.com, 12 March 2026): https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/jpmorgan-upgrades-hochschild-mining-stock-rating-on-growth-outlook-93CH-4556128 • Q1 2026 operations update (AJ Bell, April 2026): https://www.ajbell.co.uk/news/articles/hochschild-mining-confirms-outlook-amid-strong-gold-and-silver-prices • Morgan Stanley Fed note (TheStreet, 18 May 2026): https://www.thestreet.com/fed/morgan-stanley-updates-surprising-fed-rate-path-for-2027-with-two-rate-cuts-despite-bond-market-concerns-about-hikes • Goldman Sachs delays cuts (TheStreet, 11 May 2026): https://www.thestreet.com/investing/goldman-sachs-sends-blunt-message-on-fed-interest-rate-cuts • BofA pushes to 2027 (CBS News, 8 May 2026): https://www.cbsnews.com/news/interest-rates-federal-reserve-inflation-bank-of-america/ • DXY May 2026 (Vantage Markets): https://www.vantagemarkets.com/market-analysis/us-dollar-forecast-dxy-iran-war-fed-hold-may-2026/ • Simply Wall St HOC analysis: https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/lse-hoc/hochschild-mining-shares/future
- ·1 päivä sittenDoes anyone have a link that shows what it will be tomorrow?
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