Tunnusluvut
Riskitaso
?
Korkea: 6 / 7
Huomioi, että vaikka osakerahastoihin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Tunnusluvut
- Juoksevat kulut1,40%
- OmaisuusluokkaOsake
- KategoriaSektori arvometallit osakkeet
- PerusvaluuttaEUR
- Lainoitusaste70%
- Avaintietoasiakirja
Tietoa rahastosta
The focus is on Global Precious Metal Mining Company with a special focus on transferable securities whose value development is affected by the market development for Silver.
Vastaavan tyyppisiä rahastoja
Omistukset
Päivitetty 30.4.2026
Jakauma
- Osakkeet96,1%
- Muut3,5%
- Lyhyt korko0,4%
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
8 t sitten · Muokattu8 t sitten · MuokattuGold at a crossroads: real warning or bear trap? Gold has had a brutal stretch since the January peak, and the chart now sits at a genuinely interesting technical juncture. After printing an all-time high near $5,589 on 28 January 2026, the metal corrected roughly 16% into the mid-$4,000s, with the GC futures contract trading around 4,560 at the end of May. On Investtech’s medium-term read, the price has broken below the floor of the rising trend channel that has guided gold since the late-2024 lows around 2,500 — a signal that, taken at face value, points to a weaker rate of increase rather than an outright reversal. The reason this moment matters is what tends to happen next. A clean breakdown through a channel floor is bearish, but a price that climbs back inside the channel after breaking down is the opposite: a failed break, often called a bear trap. The would-be sellers get caught on the wrong side, the underlying uptrend reasserts itself, and the “weaker momentum” thesis is effectively cancelled. So the question I am watching is not whether the break happened — it did — but whether gold can reclaim the channel on convincing follow-through rather than a brief intraday poke. The levels frame the risk cleanly. Resistance sits at the old top near 5,400, roughly 18% above current price and the obvious ceiling on any renewed leg up. The critical support is 4,400, only about 3.5% below spot and the shelf the recent bounce launched from; lose it and the next meaningful floor is the 3,400 consolidation zone from mid-2025, some 25% lower. In other words, the downside is narrow before the first real test and large if that test fails. The macro backdrop mirrors the chart’s ambiguity. The near-term headwinds are concrete: rising US Treasury yields, with the 10-year near a one-year high, lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, and a firmer dollar makes gold pricier in other currencies. Against that, the structural bid has not gone anywhere — central banks net-bought 244 tonnes in Q1, up 3% year over year, and the Hormuz disruption keeps a geopolitical premium in the price. The sell-side still leans constructive on a 6–12 month view: Goldman holds a 5,400 year-end 2026 target, while J.P. Morgan trimmed its 2026 average to 5,243/oz but still sees a recovery toward 6,000 into year-end. My takeaway: medium-term momentum is neutral-to-soft after the channel break, with 4,400 as the line in the sand. A confident move back into the channel while that support holds would flip the technical picture positive again and set up another run at 5,400 — and given the leverage in the silver complex, that reversal would likely show up even more sharply in silver. What are you watching — do you treat the channel break as a reason to trim, or are you waiting for a reclaim before adding? - Sources - Capital.com — Gold Price Forecast (19 May 2026): https://capital.com/en-int/market-updates/gold-price-forecast-19-05-2026 - GoldSilver — Gold Price Outlook May 2026: Why Institutional Forecasters Still See $5,000: https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/gold-price-outlook-may-2026-why-institutional-forecasters-still-see-5000/ - J.P. Morgan Global Research — Gold price predictions: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/gold-prices - Investtech — Automatic technical analysis, Gold (GC), medium term- 9 t sitten · Muokattu9 t sitten · MuokattuA Split Fed, Cheaper Oil, and What It Could Mean for Silver Into June The setup into the 16–17 June FOMC meeting is more interesting than the near-certain “hold” headline suggests. Prediction markets put the odds of no change well above 90%, but the real story is a committee that no longer speaks with one voice. The April decision to hold passed in an 8-4 vote, the most divided FOMC since 1992, and the dissents pulled in opposite directions: one policymaker pushing for an immediate cut while several regional bank presidents resisted even hinting at easing. A house this divided is a house where the marginal data point matters, and where the tone can swing on a single soft print. That is precisely where the oil price enters the picture. Brent has fallen back toward the low 90s, down close to 19% in May, as a tentative US–Iran ceasefire and the prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz drained the geopolitical premium that had driven crude above 100 earlier this year. The Fed does not target oil, and it officially looks through energy volatility toward core inflation. But a sustained move lower feeds through to headline inflation and, more importantly, to the inflation expectations the Fed works hard to keep anchored. Cheaper oil that stays cheap is exactly the disinflationary backdrop that hands the doves their argument. So the chain into June is straightforward even if the outcome is not. If oil holds below 100 through the meeting, the inflation narrative softens, and in an 8-4 committee that softening can tilt the dot plot and the press-conference framing in a more dovish direction even if the policy rate itself stays put. The catch is timing. Oil shows up in the official inflation data with a lag, so at the June meeting the Fed will be projecting the disinflation rather than confirming it. That makes the updated projections, not the rate decision, the main event, and it makes them genuinely contestable in a way they would not be if the committee were united. For silver the read-through is the cleanest part of the analysis. Through this cycle silver has traded less like a pure fear asset and more like a dollar- and rate-sensitive one; the Iran spike actually weighed on the metal via a stronger dollar and pushed-out rate cuts rather than lifting it as a safe haven. Reverse that sequence — lower oil, a softer dollar, cuts edging back onto the table — and you remove the very headwind that has capped silver during its consolidation in the mid-to-high 70s. A dovish lean from a split Fed, set against a sixth consecutive year of structural supply deficit, is the constructive combination for the white metal. The risk is symmetry: the ceasefire is not finalized, and any re-escalation would lift oil and the dollar together, which is the worst mix for a non-yielding asset. Closing question for the forum: do you think sustained sub-100 oil is enough to push the doves over the line toward a clearer easing signal in June, or does a still-resilient labour market keep this Fed on hold well into the second half of the year? Sources US–Iran ceasefire and oil’s monthly decline — CNBC, 29 May 2026: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/oil-prices-iran-ceasefire-us-trump-strait-hormuz-energy-costs.html Brent crude price and May move — Trading Economics: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil FOMC 8-4 split and dissents — Charles Schwab: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting June 16–17 meeting dates and the divided April vote — PrimeRates: https://primerates.com/primerate/fed-meeting-schedule/ June FOMC hold probability — Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-june-825 Silver supply deficit and 2026 outlook — GoldSilver: https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/silver-price-outlook-may-2026-stop-chasing-the-number/
- 20 t sitten · Muokattu20 t sitten · MuokattuSilver after an Iran ceasefire: three scenarios — why the rate path, not the deal, sets direction The most common mistake in the silver debate right now is assuming a signed US–Iran ceasefire acts directly on the price. It almost never does. A ceasefire works through a chain: lower oil feeds lower energy inflation, which feeds lower odds the Fed tightens, which frees up silver’s industrial and growth leg. The rates market and the dollar translate geopolitics into metal price — not the headline itself. So that chain is what the three scenarios below are built on. Today’s anchors first: silver near $75, gold near $4,500, a gold/silver ratio near 60, the dollar index (DXY) near 99, Brent near $91. On rates, the market prices roughly 97% odds the Fed holds 3.50–3.75% at the June 16–17 meeting and — the key part — assigns about 46% probability to a *hike* in December. April inflation ran 3.8% year-on-year, driven by a near-18% energy surge tied to the Middle East. In other words, the rate-path risk currently leans toward tightening, not cuts. That’s the skew a ceasefire has to reverse. Scenario 1 — Signed deal and disinflation (silver up, ~$82–92). Trump signs, Hormuz reopens to unrestricted shipping, oil rolls over, and the May CPI on June 10 confirms energy inflation is fading. The hike risk disappears, the June 17 dot plot can swing back toward cuts, the dollar softens, and you get a risk-on regime that activates silver’s industrial leg. This is exactly the US–China tariff-truce pattern from May 10–11, when silver jumped 6% in a session while gold barely moved and the ratio compressed from 62 toward 55. After a brief reflex dip as the hedge unwinds, the direction is up, with re-tightening lease rates as a possible accelerant. Scenario 2 — Deal holds, but inflation bites and the Fed stays put (silver sideways, ~$70–78). My base case. The ceasefire holds, but oil only partly eases, April’s inflation proves sticky, and the Fed stays on hold with hike risk lingering. DXY holds firm at 99–100 and high real rates remain the headwind. Silver sheds some fear premium, but the physical floor catches the dips, giving choppy consolidation where dips get bought near $70–72 support. It’s also where sell-side lives: the 2026 «average» forecast from ING, Saxo, BofA and HSBC sits near $55–70, below spot. Scenario 3 — No signature or re-escalation (silver volatile, skewed up, ~$80–100). Trump doesn’t sign, or fresh strikes like those on May 27 escalate, Hormuz stays contested, and oil spikes. The safe-haven bid returns across the precious-metals complex, and silver — which trades like a 2–3x leveraged version of gold in fear regimes — moves more in both directions. The physical squeeze amplifies the upside, but stagflation logic (high inflation, weaker growth) hurts the industrial leg, so the move is whippy and the top is capped by growth fears. Net near-term up, but the highest whipsaw risk of the three. What ties all three together is the floor. Whatever the rate path, physical tightness holds a hard bottom: London lease rates spiked to 39% in October 2025 and remain far above the sub-1% norm, Shanghai trades 12–13% over Western benchmarks after China reclassified silver as strategic and curbed exports, COMEX and LBMA vaults are drawing down, and the World Silver Survey 2026 confirms a sixth straight deficit year at 46.3 Moz with a cumulative 762 Moz drawdown since 2021. New supply takes 5–10 years to build. That’s why the downside is structurally capped even in the dull Scenario 2. The usual caveat: this isn’t advice, just a way to make the path-dependence explicit. Above $100, demand destruction via solar thrifting starts to bite, so the upside isn’t brake-free either. My question to you: if we get a signed ceasefire, which of the three do you weight most — and how much of the silver price is really driven by rates and the dollar versus the physical squeeze? For me, that weighting decides whether you buy the dips or wait for them. - Sources: - Trading Economics — USD, rate path, inflation, Hormuz: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency - DeFiRate — June 2026 FOMC probabilities: https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/fed-decision-odds/ - GoldSilver — May 2026 silver (China truce, ratio): https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/silver-price-outlook-may-2026-stop-chasing-the-number/ - Investing.com / BofA — physical squeeze and lease rates: https://www.investing.com/analysis/silver-flashes-rare-warning-signal-as-physical-market-seizes-up--bofa-targets-65-200668602 - World Silver Survey 2026 (Silver Institute / Metals Focus) via MiningVisuals — 46.3 Moz, 762 Moz: https://www.miningvisuals.com/post/silver-supply-and-demand-a-2026-update - TradingKey — 2026 bank consensus ($55–70 avg): https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/commodities/metal/261487879-2026-silver-physical-squeeze-strategic-asset-tradingkey
- 2 päivää sitten · Muokattu2 päivää sitten · MuokattuKEY POINTS President Donald Trump said he is about to “make a final determination” after listing everything that Iran must do for him to approve a deal to end the war. Iran “must agree” to never have a nuclear weapon, and the Strait of Hormuz must be “immediately open” to unrestricted shipping traffic, Trump demanded on Truth Social. Iranian officials earlier appeared defiant toward the U.S., touting their ties with their Middle East neighbors including Oman, a recent target of Trump’s threats.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Tunnusluvut
Riskitaso
?
Korkea: 6 / 7
Huomioi, että vaikka osakerahastoihin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Tunnusluvut
- Juoksevat kulut1,40%
- OmaisuusluokkaOsake
- KategoriaSektori arvometallit osakkeet
- PerusvaluuttaEUR
- Lainoitusaste70%
- Avaintietoasiakirja
Tietoa rahastosta
The focus is on Global Precious Metal Mining Company with a special focus on transferable securities whose value development is affected by the market development for Silver.
Vastaavan tyyppisiä rahastoja
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Omistukset
Päivitetty 30.4.2026
Jakauma
- Osakkeet96,1%
- Muut3,5%
- Lyhyt korko0,4%
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
- 8 t sitten · Muokattu8 t sitten · MuokattuGold at a crossroads: real warning or bear trap? Gold has had a brutal stretch since the January peak, and the chart now sits at a genuinely interesting technical juncture. After printing an all-time high near $5,589 on 28 January 2026, the metal corrected roughly 16% into the mid-$4,000s, with the GC futures contract trading around 4,560 at the end of May. On Investtech’s medium-term read, the price has broken below the floor of the rising trend channel that has guided gold since the late-2024 lows around 2,500 — a signal that, taken at face value, points to a weaker rate of increase rather than an outright reversal. The reason this moment matters is what tends to happen next. A clean breakdown through a channel floor is bearish, but a price that climbs back inside the channel after breaking down is the opposite: a failed break, often called a bear trap. The would-be sellers get caught on the wrong side, the underlying uptrend reasserts itself, and the “weaker momentum” thesis is effectively cancelled. So the question I am watching is not whether the break happened — it did — but whether gold can reclaim the channel on convincing follow-through rather than a brief intraday poke. The levels frame the risk cleanly. Resistance sits at the old top near 5,400, roughly 18% above current price and the obvious ceiling on any renewed leg up. The critical support is 4,400, only about 3.5% below spot and the shelf the recent bounce launched from; lose it and the next meaningful floor is the 3,400 consolidation zone from mid-2025, some 25% lower. In other words, the downside is narrow before the first real test and large if that test fails. The macro backdrop mirrors the chart’s ambiguity. The near-term headwinds are concrete: rising US Treasury yields, with the 10-year near a one-year high, lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, and a firmer dollar makes gold pricier in other currencies. Against that, the structural bid has not gone anywhere — central banks net-bought 244 tonnes in Q1, up 3% year over year, and the Hormuz disruption keeps a geopolitical premium in the price. The sell-side still leans constructive on a 6–12 month view: Goldman holds a 5,400 year-end 2026 target, while J.P. Morgan trimmed its 2026 average to 5,243/oz but still sees a recovery toward 6,000 into year-end. My takeaway: medium-term momentum is neutral-to-soft after the channel break, with 4,400 as the line in the sand. A confident move back into the channel while that support holds would flip the technical picture positive again and set up another run at 5,400 — and given the leverage in the silver complex, that reversal would likely show up even more sharply in silver. What are you watching — do you treat the channel break as a reason to trim, or are you waiting for a reclaim before adding? - Sources - Capital.com — Gold Price Forecast (19 May 2026): https://capital.com/en-int/market-updates/gold-price-forecast-19-05-2026 - GoldSilver — Gold Price Outlook May 2026: Why Institutional Forecasters Still See $5,000: https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/gold-price-outlook-may-2026-why-institutional-forecasters-still-see-5000/ - J.P. Morgan Global Research — Gold price predictions: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/gold-prices - Investtech — Automatic technical analysis, Gold (GC), medium term
- 9 t sitten · Muokattu9 t sitten · MuokattuA Split Fed, Cheaper Oil, and What It Could Mean for Silver Into June The setup into the 16–17 June FOMC meeting is more interesting than the near-certain “hold” headline suggests. Prediction markets put the odds of no change well above 90%, but the real story is a committee that no longer speaks with one voice. The April decision to hold passed in an 8-4 vote, the most divided FOMC since 1992, and the dissents pulled in opposite directions: one policymaker pushing for an immediate cut while several regional bank presidents resisted even hinting at easing. A house this divided is a house where the marginal data point matters, and where the tone can swing on a single soft print. That is precisely where the oil price enters the picture. Brent has fallen back toward the low 90s, down close to 19% in May, as a tentative US–Iran ceasefire and the prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz drained the geopolitical premium that had driven crude above 100 earlier this year. The Fed does not target oil, and it officially looks through energy volatility toward core inflation. But a sustained move lower feeds through to headline inflation and, more importantly, to the inflation expectations the Fed works hard to keep anchored. Cheaper oil that stays cheap is exactly the disinflationary backdrop that hands the doves their argument. So the chain into June is straightforward even if the outcome is not. If oil holds below 100 through the meeting, the inflation narrative softens, and in an 8-4 committee that softening can tilt the dot plot and the press-conference framing in a more dovish direction even if the policy rate itself stays put. The catch is timing. Oil shows up in the official inflation data with a lag, so at the June meeting the Fed will be projecting the disinflation rather than confirming it. That makes the updated projections, not the rate decision, the main event, and it makes them genuinely contestable in a way they would not be if the committee were united. For silver the read-through is the cleanest part of the analysis. Through this cycle silver has traded less like a pure fear asset and more like a dollar- and rate-sensitive one; the Iran spike actually weighed on the metal via a stronger dollar and pushed-out rate cuts rather than lifting it as a safe haven. Reverse that sequence — lower oil, a softer dollar, cuts edging back onto the table — and you remove the very headwind that has capped silver during its consolidation in the mid-to-high 70s. A dovish lean from a split Fed, set against a sixth consecutive year of structural supply deficit, is the constructive combination for the white metal. The risk is symmetry: the ceasefire is not finalized, and any re-escalation would lift oil and the dollar together, which is the worst mix for a non-yielding asset. Closing question for the forum: do you think sustained sub-100 oil is enough to push the doves over the line toward a clearer easing signal in June, or does a still-resilient labour market keep this Fed on hold well into the second half of the year? Sources US–Iran ceasefire and oil’s monthly decline — CNBC, 29 May 2026: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/oil-prices-iran-ceasefire-us-trump-strait-hormuz-energy-costs.html Brent crude price and May move — Trading Economics: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil FOMC 8-4 split and dissents — Charles Schwab: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting June 16–17 meeting dates and the divided April vote — PrimeRates: https://primerates.com/primerate/fed-meeting-schedule/ June FOMC hold probability — Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-june-825 Silver supply deficit and 2026 outlook — GoldSilver: https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/silver-price-outlook-may-2026-stop-chasing-the-number/
- 20 t sitten · Muokattu20 t sitten · MuokattuSilver after an Iran ceasefire: three scenarios — why the rate path, not the deal, sets direction The most common mistake in the silver debate right now is assuming a signed US–Iran ceasefire acts directly on the price. It almost never does. A ceasefire works through a chain: lower oil feeds lower energy inflation, which feeds lower odds the Fed tightens, which frees up silver’s industrial and growth leg. The rates market and the dollar translate geopolitics into metal price — not the headline itself. So that chain is what the three scenarios below are built on. Today’s anchors first: silver near $75, gold near $4,500, a gold/silver ratio near 60, the dollar index (DXY) near 99, Brent near $91. On rates, the market prices roughly 97% odds the Fed holds 3.50–3.75% at the June 16–17 meeting and — the key part — assigns about 46% probability to a *hike* in December. April inflation ran 3.8% year-on-year, driven by a near-18% energy surge tied to the Middle East. In other words, the rate-path risk currently leans toward tightening, not cuts. That’s the skew a ceasefire has to reverse. Scenario 1 — Signed deal and disinflation (silver up, ~$82–92). Trump signs, Hormuz reopens to unrestricted shipping, oil rolls over, and the May CPI on June 10 confirms energy inflation is fading. The hike risk disappears, the June 17 dot plot can swing back toward cuts, the dollar softens, and you get a risk-on regime that activates silver’s industrial leg. This is exactly the US–China tariff-truce pattern from May 10–11, when silver jumped 6% in a session while gold barely moved and the ratio compressed from 62 toward 55. After a brief reflex dip as the hedge unwinds, the direction is up, with re-tightening lease rates as a possible accelerant. Scenario 2 — Deal holds, but inflation bites and the Fed stays put (silver sideways, ~$70–78). My base case. The ceasefire holds, but oil only partly eases, April’s inflation proves sticky, and the Fed stays on hold with hike risk lingering. DXY holds firm at 99–100 and high real rates remain the headwind. Silver sheds some fear premium, but the physical floor catches the dips, giving choppy consolidation where dips get bought near $70–72 support. It’s also where sell-side lives: the 2026 «average» forecast from ING, Saxo, BofA and HSBC sits near $55–70, below spot. Scenario 3 — No signature or re-escalation (silver volatile, skewed up, ~$80–100). Trump doesn’t sign, or fresh strikes like those on May 27 escalate, Hormuz stays contested, and oil spikes. The safe-haven bid returns across the precious-metals complex, and silver — which trades like a 2–3x leveraged version of gold in fear regimes — moves more in both directions. The physical squeeze amplifies the upside, but stagflation logic (high inflation, weaker growth) hurts the industrial leg, so the move is whippy and the top is capped by growth fears. Net near-term up, but the highest whipsaw risk of the three. What ties all three together is the floor. Whatever the rate path, physical tightness holds a hard bottom: London lease rates spiked to 39% in October 2025 and remain far above the sub-1% norm, Shanghai trades 12–13% over Western benchmarks after China reclassified silver as strategic and curbed exports, COMEX and LBMA vaults are drawing down, and the World Silver Survey 2026 confirms a sixth straight deficit year at 46.3 Moz with a cumulative 762 Moz drawdown since 2021. New supply takes 5–10 years to build. That’s why the downside is structurally capped even in the dull Scenario 2. The usual caveat: this isn’t advice, just a way to make the path-dependence explicit. Above $100, demand destruction via solar thrifting starts to bite, so the upside isn’t brake-free either. My question to you: if we get a signed ceasefire, which of the three do you weight most — and how much of the silver price is really driven by rates and the dollar versus the physical squeeze? For me, that weighting decides whether you buy the dips or wait for them. - Sources: - Trading Economics — USD, rate path, inflation, Hormuz: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency - DeFiRate — June 2026 FOMC probabilities: https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/fed-decision-odds/ - GoldSilver — May 2026 silver (China truce, ratio): https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/silver-price-outlook-may-2026-stop-chasing-the-number/ - Investing.com / BofA — physical squeeze and lease rates: https://www.investing.com/analysis/silver-flashes-rare-warning-signal-as-physical-market-seizes-up--bofa-targets-65-200668602 - World Silver Survey 2026 (Silver Institute / Metals Focus) via MiningVisuals — 46.3 Moz, 762 Moz: https://www.miningvisuals.com/post/silver-supply-and-demand-a-2026-update - TradingKey — 2026 bank consensus ($55–70 avg): https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/commodities/metal/261487879-2026-silver-physical-squeeze-strategic-asset-tradingkey
- 2 päivää sitten · Muokattu2 päivää sitten · MuokattuKEY POINTS President Donald Trump said he is about to “make a final determination” after listing everything that Iran must do for him to approve a deal to end the war. Iran “must agree” to never have a nuclear weapon, and the Strait of Hormuz must be “immediately open” to unrestricted shipping traffic, Trump demanded on Truth Social. Iranian officials earlier appeared defiant toward the U.S., touting their ties with their Middle East neighbors including Oman, a recent target of Trump’s threats.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tunnusluvut
Riskitaso
?
Korkea: 6 / 7
Huomioi, että vaikka osakerahastoihin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Tunnusluvut
- Juoksevat kulut1,40%
- OmaisuusluokkaOsake
- KategoriaSektori arvometallit osakkeet
- PerusvaluuttaEUR
- Lainoitusaste70%
- Avaintietoasiakirja
Tietoa rahastosta
The focus is on Global Precious Metal Mining Company with a special focus on transferable securities whose value development is affected by the market development for Silver.
Vastaavan tyyppisiä rahastoja
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Foorumi
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- 8 t sitten · Muokattu8 t sitten · MuokattuGold at a crossroads: real warning or bear trap? Gold has had a brutal stretch since the January peak, and the chart now sits at a genuinely interesting technical juncture. After printing an all-time high near $5,589 on 28 January 2026, the metal corrected roughly 16% into the mid-$4,000s, with the GC futures contract trading around 4,560 at the end of May. On Investtech’s medium-term read, the price has broken below the floor of the rising trend channel that has guided gold since the late-2024 lows around 2,500 — a signal that, taken at face value, points to a weaker rate of increase rather than an outright reversal. The reason this moment matters is what tends to happen next. A clean breakdown through a channel floor is bearish, but a price that climbs back inside the channel after breaking down is the opposite: a failed break, often called a bear trap. The would-be sellers get caught on the wrong side, the underlying uptrend reasserts itself, and the “weaker momentum” thesis is effectively cancelled. So the question I am watching is not whether the break happened — it did — but whether gold can reclaim the channel on convincing follow-through rather than a brief intraday poke. The levels frame the risk cleanly. Resistance sits at the old top near 5,400, roughly 18% above current price and the obvious ceiling on any renewed leg up. The critical support is 4,400, only about 3.5% below spot and the shelf the recent bounce launched from; lose it and the next meaningful floor is the 3,400 consolidation zone from mid-2025, some 25% lower. In other words, the downside is narrow before the first real test and large if that test fails. The macro backdrop mirrors the chart’s ambiguity. The near-term headwinds are concrete: rising US Treasury yields, with the 10-year near a one-year high, lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, and a firmer dollar makes gold pricier in other currencies. Against that, the structural bid has not gone anywhere — central banks net-bought 244 tonnes in Q1, up 3% year over year, and the Hormuz disruption keeps a geopolitical premium in the price. The sell-side still leans constructive on a 6–12 month view: Goldman holds a 5,400 year-end 2026 target, while J.P. Morgan trimmed its 2026 average to 5,243/oz but still sees a recovery toward 6,000 into year-end. My takeaway: medium-term momentum is neutral-to-soft after the channel break, with 4,400 as the line in the sand. A confident move back into the channel while that support holds would flip the technical picture positive again and set up another run at 5,400 — and given the leverage in the silver complex, that reversal would likely show up even more sharply in silver. What are you watching — do you treat the channel break as a reason to trim, or are you waiting for a reclaim before adding? - Sources - Capital.com — Gold Price Forecast (19 May 2026): https://capital.com/en-int/market-updates/gold-price-forecast-19-05-2026 - GoldSilver — Gold Price Outlook May 2026: Why Institutional Forecasters Still See $5,000: https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/gold-price-outlook-may-2026-why-institutional-forecasters-still-see-5000/ - J.P. Morgan Global Research — Gold price predictions: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/gold-prices - Investtech — Automatic technical analysis, Gold (GC), medium term
- 9 t sitten · Muokattu9 t sitten · MuokattuA Split Fed, Cheaper Oil, and What It Could Mean for Silver Into June The setup into the 16–17 June FOMC meeting is more interesting than the near-certain “hold” headline suggests. Prediction markets put the odds of no change well above 90%, but the real story is a committee that no longer speaks with one voice. The April decision to hold passed in an 8-4 vote, the most divided FOMC since 1992, and the dissents pulled in opposite directions: one policymaker pushing for an immediate cut while several regional bank presidents resisted even hinting at easing. A house this divided is a house where the marginal data point matters, and where the tone can swing on a single soft print. That is precisely where the oil price enters the picture. Brent has fallen back toward the low 90s, down close to 19% in May, as a tentative US–Iran ceasefire and the prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz drained the geopolitical premium that had driven crude above 100 earlier this year. The Fed does not target oil, and it officially looks through energy volatility toward core inflation. But a sustained move lower feeds through to headline inflation and, more importantly, to the inflation expectations the Fed works hard to keep anchored. Cheaper oil that stays cheap is exactly the disinflationary backdrop that hands the doves their argument. So the chain into June is straightforward even if the outcome is not. If oil holds below 100 through the meeting, the inflation narrative softens, and in an 8-4 committee that softening can tilt the dot plot and the press-conference framing in a more dovish direction even if the policy rate itself stays put. The catch is timing. Oil shows up in the official inflation data with a lag, so at the June meeting the Fed will be projecting the disinflation rather than confirming it. That makes the updated projections, not the rate decision, the main event, and it makes them genuinely contestable in a way they would not be if the committee were united. For silver the read-through is the cleanest part of the analysis. Through this cycle silver has traded less like a pure fear asset and more like a dollar- and rate-sensitive one; the Iran spike actually weighed on the metal via a stronger dollar and pushed-out rate cuts rather than lifting it as a safe haven. Reverse that sequence — lower oil, a softer dollar, cuts edging back onto the table — and you remove the very headwind that has capped silver during its consolidation in the mid-to-high 70s. A dovish lean from a split Fed, set against a sixth consecutive year of structural supply deficit, is the constructive combination for the white metal. The risk is symmetry: the ceasefire is not finalized, and any re-escalation would lift oil and the dollar together, which is the worst mix for a non-yielding asset. Closing question for the forum: do you think sustained sub-100 oil is enough to push the doves over the line toward a clearer easing signal in June, or does a still-resilient labour market keep this Fed on hold well into the second half of the year? Sources US–Iran ceasefire and oil’s monthly decline — CNBC, 29 May 2026: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/oil-prices-iran-ceasefire-us-trump-strait-hormuz-energy-costs.html Brent crude price and May move — Trading Economics: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil FOMC 8-4 split and dissents — Charles Schwab: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting June 16–17 meeting dates and the divided April vote — PrimeRates: https://primerates.com/primerate/fed-meeting-schedule/ June FOMC hold probability — Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-june-825 Silver supply deficit and 2026 outlook — GoldSilver: https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/silver-price-outlook-may-2026-stop-chasing-the-number/
- 20 t sitten · Muokattu20 t sitten · MuokattuSilver after an Iran ceasefire: three scenarios — why the rate path, not the deal, sets direction The most common mistake in the silver debate right now is assuming a signed US–Iran ceasefire acts directly on the price. It almost never does. A ceasefire works through a chain: lower oil feeds lower energy inflation, which feeds lower odds the Fed tightens, which frees up silver’s industrial and growth leg. The rates market and the dollar translate geopolitics into metal price — not the headline itself. So that chain is what the three scenarios below are built on. Today’s anchors first: silver near $75, gold near $4,500, a gold/silver ratio near 60, the dollar index (DXY) near 99, Brent near $91. On rates, the market prices roughly 97% odds the Fed holds 3.50–3.75% at the June 16–17 meeting and — the key part — assigns about 46% probability to a *hike* in December. April inflation ran 3.8% year-on-year, driven by a near-18% energy surge tied to the Middle East. In other words, the rate-path risk currently leans toward tightening, not cuts. That’s the skew a ceasefire has to reverse. Scenario 1 — Signed deal and disinflation (silver up, ~$82–92). Trump signs, Hormuz reopens to unrestricted shipping, oil rolls over, and the May CPI on June 10 confirms energy inflation is fading. The hike risk disappears, the June 17 dot plot can swing back toward cuts, the dollar softens, and you get a risk-on regime that activates silver’s industrial leg. This is exactly the US–China tariff-truce pattern from May 10–11, when silver jumped 6% in a session while gold barely moved and the ratio compressed from 62 toward 55. After a brief reflex dip as the hedge unwinds, the direction is up, with re-tightening lease rates as a possible accelerant. Scenario 2 — Deal holds, but inflation bites and the Fed stays put (silver sideways, ~$70–78). My base case. The ceasefire holds, but oil only partly eases, April’s inflation proves sticky, and the Fed stays on hold with hike risk lingering. DXY holds firm at 99–100 and high real rates remain the headwind. Silver sheds some fear premium, but the physical floor catches the dips, giving choppy consolidation where dips get bought near $70–72 support. It’s also where sell-side lives: the 2026 «average» forecast from ING, Saxo, BofA and HSBC sits near $55–70, below spot. Scenario 3 — No signature or re-escalation (silver volatile, skewed up, ~$80–100). Trump doesn’t sign, or fresh strikes like those on May 27 escalate, Hormuz stays contested, and oil spikes. The safe-haven bid returns across the precious-metals complex, and silver — which trades like a 2–3x leveraged version of gold in fear regimes — moves more in both directions. The physical squeeze amplifies the upside, but stagflation logic (high inflation, weaker growth) hurts the industrial leg, so the move is whippy and the top is capped by growth fears. Net near-term up, but the highest whipsaw risk of the three. What ties all three together is the floor. Whatever the rate path, physical tightness holds a hard bottom: London lease rates spiked to 39% in October 2025 and remain far above the sub-1% norm, Shanghai trades 12–13% over Western benchmarks after China reclassified silver as strategic and curbed exports, COMEX and LBMA vaults are drawing down, and the World Silver Survey 2026 confirms a sixth straight deficit year at 46.3 Moz with a cumulative 762 Moz drawdown since 2021. New supply takes 5–10 years to build. That’s why the downside is structurally capped even in the dull Scenario 2. The usual caveat: this isn’t advice, just a way to make the path-dependence explicit. Above $100, demand destruction via solar thrifting starts to bite, so the upside isn’t brake-free either. My question to you: if we get a signed ceasefire, which of the three do you weight most — and how much of the silver price is really driven by rates and the dollar versus the physical squeeze? For me, that weighting decides whether you buy the dips or wait for them. - Sources: - Trading Economics — USD, rate path, inflation, Hormuz: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency - DeFiRate — June 2026 FOMC probabilities: https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/fed-decision-odds/ - GoldSilver — May 2026 silver (China truce, ratio): https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/silver-price-outlook-may-2026-stop-chasing-the-number/ - Investing.com / BofA — physical squeeze and lease rates: https://www.investing.com/analysis/silver-flashes-rare-warning-signal-as-physical-market-seizes-up--bofa-targets-65-200668602 - World Silver Survey 2026 (Silver Institute / Metals Focus) via MiningVisuals — 46.3 Moz, 762 Moz: https://www.miningvisuals.com/post/silver-supply-and-demand-a-2026-update - TradingKey — 2026 bank consensus ($55–70 avg): https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/commodities/metal/261487879-2026-silver-physical-squeeze-strategic-asset-tradingkey
- 2 päivää sitten · Muokattu2 päivää sitten · MuokattuKEY POINTS President Donald Trump said he is about to “make a final determination” after listing everything that Iran must do for him to approve a deal to end the war. Iran “must agree” to never have a nuclear weapon, and the Strait of Hormuz must be “immediately open” to unrestricted shipping traffic, Trump demanded on Truth Social. Iranian officials earlier appeared defiant toward the U.S., touting their ties with their Middle East neighbors including Oman, a recent target of Trump’s threats.
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