Tunnusluvut
Riskitaso
?
Korkea: 6 / 7
Huomioi, että vaikka osakerahastoihin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Tunnusluvut
- Juoksevat kulut1,40%
- OmaisuusluokkaOsake
- KategoriaSektori arvometallit osakkeet
- PerusvaluuttaEUR
- Lainoitusaste70%
- Avaintietoasiakirja
Tietoa rahastosta
The focus is on Global Precious Metal Mining Company with a special focus on transferable securities whose value development is affected by the market development for Silver.
Vastaavan tyyppisiä rahastoja
Omistukset
Päivitetty 31.5.2026
Jakauma
- Osakkeet95,8%
- Muut3,5%
- Lyhyt korko0,7%
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
9 t sittenRussia's War Economy Is Cracking – What Does It Mean for Silver? Yesterday, Børsen Dagbladet published an analysis painting a grim picture of Russia's war economy. According to the IMF, Russian GDP growth is expected at just 1.1% in 2026, down from nearly 5% the year before. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) puts it bluntly: Russia can no longer finance the war, control inflation, and generate growth simultaneously – and growth is the one being sacrificed. Defense spending has tripled since before the invasion, now running at roughly 6.3% of GDP, while the budget deficit in the first four months of 2026 was more than double the same period last year. For those of us tracking silver, the transmission chain is worth mapping carefully. A Russian economic collapse – or a chaotic end to the Ukraine war – raises geopolitical uncertainty sharply. Capital flows toward safe haven assets. Gold typically reacts first, but silver follows with higher beta, and it is precisely that volatility which gives silver its asymmetric upside in risk-off environments. The second transmission chain runs through energy markets. Sustained geopolitical stress around a destabilizing Russia could push oil prices higher, feeding inflation globally and complicating the Fed's path toward rate cuts. Higher real rates are a headwind for silver in the near term. But the reverse scenario is equally plausible: a negotiated peace and gradual sanctions relief could normalize Russian energy exports, suppress oil prices, accelerate Fed easing, and weaken the dollar – historically the most powerful catalyst for silver. My read: a weakening Russia is not the primary driver for silver here and now. The decisive catalyst remains Fed policy and real rate trajectory. But Russian fiscal deterioration can accelerate or delay that transmission through energy markets, and it deserves a place in the analytical framework. I continue to watch Brent crude, CME FedWatch, and TIPS yields as primary leading indicators. Are you holding silver as a geopolitical hedge, or is your thesis primarily built on the Fed pivot? This is not investment advice. I hold exposure to silver through AuAg Silver Bullet. - Sources: Børsen Dagbladet – *Russland vakler: Frykter full kollaps* https://borsen.dagbladet.no/nyheter/russland-vakler-frykter-full-kollaps/84820830 IMF – *Russian Federation: GDP Outlook* https://www.imf.org/en/countries/rus CEPA – *Russia Settles for Stagnation* https://cepa.org/article/russia-settles-for-stagnation/ SIPRI – *Military Spending in Russia's Budget 2026* https://www.sipri.org/publications/2026/sipri-insights-peace-and-security/budget-fifth-year-war-military-spending-russias-budget-2026 Kiel Institute – *Endgame: Russia's War Economy Hits Its Limits* https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/news/endgame-russias-war-economy-hits-its-limits/
1 t sittenVenäläisiä ei ole kasvatettu ajattelemaan. Jos ajattelee nykyvenäjällä ääneen voi joutua vankilaan tai sotaan. Tätä on jatkunut Leninin ajoista asti. Venäjällä ei varmaan ole juurikaan innovaatioita, jos vahingossa miettii voi jälleen kerran joutua vankilaan. Luulisin että kaivokset toimivat aika huonosti koska eivät saa länsimaista varaosia eikä asiantuntijoita. Kiinasta ja Intiasta varmasti tulee osaamista ja hopeaa myydään sinne minne saadaan myytyä. Venäjä on Pietarin ja Moskovan seutua lukuun ottamatta neuvostoajassa.- ·8 t sitten · MuokattuThe US Central Command (Centcom) writes in a message on X that they on Saturday carried out new attacks against targets linked to Iran. – Iran was given an opportunity to comply with the ceasefire agreement, but chose not to do so, writes Centcom. They refer to Iran's aggression against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Centcom writes that American military aircraft attacked Iranian military surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, air defense facilities, drone storage, and mine capacity. https://www.vg.no/nyheter/i/0p3zkB/reuters-usa-utfoerer-angrep-mot-iran
- ·13 t sittenThis is a scenario — not a prediction. I believe the oil price will continue downwards. Three bearish drivers are hitting the market simultaneously: OPEC+ has almost 10 million barrels per day in production that disappeared during the Iran war and will gradually return. The UAE left OPEC on May 1 and will soon pump freely towards its capacity limit of 4.85 million barrels per day. And the USA is going to refill strategic oil reserves (SPR), which are now at their lowest level since 1983 — this absorbs some, but the refill rate is six times slower than the withdrawal rate and does not counteract the supply side. If the oil price falls moderately, the energy component in PCE will quickly pull headline inflation down — potentially enough for the Fed under Warsh to keep rates unchanged in September. The transmission chain: lower oil → falling inflation expectations → Fed on pause → real rates flatten out → dollar weakens → silver rises. Silver is currently trading around $58–59 — down 47% from its all-time high of $121 in January. If the scenario holds, $70–80 by December is not unrealistic. But the scenario has an inherent risk: if oil falls too much and too quickly, the narrative shifts from lower inflation to global growth slowdown — and then industrial silver demand is negatively affected despite a potential Fed pause. One more point for those following the FOMC calendar: the rate meeting on July 28–29 is an interim meeting without a dot plot or updated projections (SEP). The quarterly projections — where the market reads the Fed's true intentions — only come in March, June, September, and December. July confirms or refutes Warsh's line; it is the September meeting (15–16) that is decisive. The wildcard is core inflation. Services, rent, and wage growth react much slower to lower energy prices than headline PCE. Warsh can hold rates — but for the wrong reasons for silver: not because inflation is under control, but because the core is still too high for the market to interpret it as a pivot. What do you think — will falling energy prices be enough for the Fed to hold in September, or will core inflation force Warsh to hike anyway? — This is not investment advice. Own position: AuAg Silver Bullet. — Sources: [1] Hormuz-trafikk og normalisering: https://www.hstoday.us/subject-matter-areas/maritime-security/iran-tightens-grip-on-strait-of-hormuz-as-shipping-forced-into-controlled-routes/ [2] OPEC+ produksjon og UAE-exit: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/03/opec-announces-188000-barrels-per-day-output-increase-.html [3] SPR påfyllingsrate og kapasitet: https://mineralrightspodcast.com/mrp-326-running-on-empty-the-u-s-strategic-petroleum-reserve/ [4] Sølvprisprognose 2026–2027: https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/silver-price-forecast-2026-2027-the-bull-case-and-bear-case-laid-out/ [5] FOMC-møtekalender 2026: https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/
- 16 t sittenPan American Silver (NYSE: PAAS) – Analysis in Light of the Precious Metals Correction Pan American Silver (NYSE: PAAS) is trading at $45.45 on June 26, 2026 — down sharply from its highs earlier this year. Technically, the stock has broken below the floor of a rising medium-term trend channel (Investtech). Key levels to watch: support at $46.60 (currently trading below — a negative signal), next support $28.00, resistance at $64.00. Silver (SI) trades at $59.22, down ~51% from its all-time high of $121.64 reached January 29, 2026. What drove the correction? The cause is macro, not company fundamentals. The hawkish FOMC meeting on June 16–17 under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh shifted the rate path dramatically. Goldman Sachs removed all 2026 rate cuts from its forecast, pushing expected easing to mid-2027. May CPI at 4.2% YoY and blowout jobs data (172,000 vs. 80,000 consensus) strengthened the dollar and pushed real yields higher — the classic headwind for precious metals. Gold fell below its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023, and silver, trading with higher beta, took a proportionally harder hit. Fundamentals remain exceptionally strong Q1 2026 results (May 5) delivered revenue of $1.15 billion (+49.3% YoY), net income of $456 million (+170.9% YoY), and free cash flow of $488 million — lifting cash to a record $1.8 billion. The board approved up to $1 billion in shareholder returns for 2026. The La Colorada Skarn project, with peak production potential of 19+ million silver ounces annually, has been approved for development. Next earnings: August 4, 2026. Consensus EPS: $1.06, revenue: $1.18 billion. PAAS analyst targets (updated June 2026) Consensus: Strong Buy — 15 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell over the past three months. Average 12-month price target: $71.15, implying ~57% upside from $45.45. Most recent ratings: TD Cowen upgraded to Buy May 12, raising target from $67 to $72. RBC Capital set a $75 target on April 28 — the highest among major brokers. Jefferies is the most cautious at $54. Institutional silver price targets (2026) J.P. Morgan: full-year average $81/oz. Goldman Sachs: $85–100/oz average. Citigroup: H2 target $110/oz, citing acute physical supply shortages. HSBC: $75/oz. Reuters 30-analyst survey median: $79.50/oz. At $59 today, silver trades well below most institutional consensus estimates for the year. Institutional gold price targets (2026) Goldman Sachs (revised June 20): $4,900. J.P. Morgan: $5,000–6,000. Wells Fargo: $6,100–6,300. UBS: $5,500. Morgan Stanley: $5,200. Gold trades near $4,190 — all major bank targets imply 17–51% upside from current levels. Bottom line There is a significant disconnect between PAAS's operational strength and its current share price of $45.45. With analyst consensus at $71.15 and record Q1 fundamentals, the stock is pricing in macro fear — not business risk. The key variable is the Fed. If Warsh holds rates high, pressure continues. But in a stagflationary scenario — sticky inflation combined with slowing growth — precious metals are historically among the best-positioned asset classes. The structural case remains intact: six consecutive years of silver supply deficits, surging demand from solar, EVs, and AI infrastructure, and central banks that purchased a net 244 tonnes of gold in Q1 2026 alone. This is not investment advice. Trading in commodities and mining equities involves substantial risk of loss. Sources: TipRanks – PAAS analyst consensus and price targets: https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/paas/forecast Benzinga – PAAS analyst ratings (TD Cowen $72, RBC Capital $75): https://www.benzinga.com/quote/PAAS/analyst-ratings Pan American Silver – Q1 2026 earnings release: https://panamericansilver.com/news/pan-american-silver-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-strong-mine-operating-earnings-lead-to-record-cash-balance-and-an-enhanced-shareholder-return-framework/ Canadian Mining Report – Major bank silver price targets 2026: https://www.canadianminingreport.com/blog/major-banks-remain-bullish-on-silver-here-s-what-they-re-predicting GoldSilver.com – Silver bull/bear outlook 2026–2027: https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/silver-price-forecast-2026-2027-the-bull-case-and-bear-case-laid-out/ GoldSilver.com – Major bank gold price targets 2026: https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/gold-price-forecast-2026-2027-key-predictions-from-top-analysts/ GoldRepublic – Goldman Sachs revises gold target to $4,900 (June 2026): https://www.goldrepublic.com/en-us/gold-price/forecast
- ·23 t sittenHormuz escalates Saturday night – what does that mean for silver going forward? Saturday night Norwegian time, the USA carried out attacks against four Iranian targets along the Strait of Hormuz and on Qeshm Island, in retaliation for an Iranian attack against a container ship on Thursday. According to Reuters, Iranian security forces responded shortly after with attacks against American military positions in the region – currently unconfirmed by the American military. CNN's military analyst Cedric Leighton characterizes this as "a significant escalation that could quickly get out of control". The timing is important. Silver traded around $59 at closing time Friday June 26 – down from $70+ when the USA-Iran ceasefire was announced on June 15, and far below the January peak of ~$121. The latest downturn was driven by the hawkish FOMC meeting on June 16-17, where the Fed under Kevin Warsh put rate hike fears back on the table after core inflation came in at 4.2% in May. The gold/silver ratio is now around 68.8 – not extreme, but with room for compression if macro turns. The mechanism is well-known: disrupted shipping through Hormuz → oil shock → inflation impulse. But here is the paradox that makes the silver situation complex right now: more inflation is normally negative for silver if it forces the Fed to keep real interest rates high. It was precisely this logic that pushed silver down from $70 to $59 after the FOMC. What, however, would lift silver is if escalation and geopolitical risk lead the market to price in that Warsh does not dare to hike – that the Fed gets "caught" between inflationary pressure and recession fears – and that real interest rates fall. In addition, a genuinely closed Hormuz could trigger flight to safe havens, pushing gold up and pulling silver with it. Short-term, volatility is high both ways. Monday's opening will provide a first signal as to whether the market interprets the escalation as an inflation trap for the Fed or as a geopolitical risk premium that lifts precious metals. Physical deficits in the silver market – six consecutive years according to the Silver Institute – provide a floor under the price, but it is Fed expectations that have practically driven short-term fluctuations in 2026. I hold AuAg Silver Bullet and am closely following the situation leading up to Monday's opening. What is your assessment – do you interpret escalation at Hormuz as net positive or negative for silver given today's Fed picture? This is not investment advice. All investments involve risk and you may lose the entire amount you invest. Sources: * Dagbladet / Reuters – USA-Iran escalation at Hormuz, June 27, 2026: https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/reuters-iran-svarer-etter-usa-angrep/84824634 * USAGOLD – Silver price Friday June 26, 2026 ($59.04): https://www.usagold.com/daily-silver-price-history/ * GoldSilver.com – Silver Price Outlook June 2026: https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/silver-price-outlook-june-2026/ * GoldSilver.com – Silver Price Forecast 2026–2027: https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/silver-price-forecast-2026-2027-the-bull-case-and-bear-case-laid-out/ * J.P. Morgan Global Research – Silver prices 2026: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/silver-prices
Comex Potential delivery vs registered 85.4% High delivery pressure 74.4M oz / 87.1M oz Days to first notice 2 days JUL 2026 contract The next two days will be exciting to follow🥡
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Tunnusluvut
Riskitaso
?
Korkea: 6 / 7
Huomioi, että vaikka osakerahastoihin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Tunnusluvut
- Juoksevat kulut1,40%
- OmaisuusluokkaOsake
- KategoriaSektori arvometallit osakkeet
- PerusvaluuttaEUR
- Lainoitusaste70%
- Avaintietoasiakirja
Tietoa rahastosta
The focus is on Global Precious Metal Mining Company with a special focus on transferable securities whose value development is affected by the market development for Silver.
Vastaavan tyyppisiä rahastoja
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Omistukset
Päivitetty 31.5.2026
Jakauma
- Osakkeet95,8%
- Muut3,5%
- Lyhyt korko0,7%
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
- 9 t sittenRussia's War Economy Is Cracking – What Does It Mean for Silver? Yesterday, Børsen Dagbladet published an analysis painting a grim picture of Russia's war economy. According to the IMF, Russian GDP growth is expected at just 1.1% in 2026, down from nearly 5% the year before. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) puts it bluntly: Russia can no longer finance the war, control inflation, and generate growth simultaneously – and growth is the one being sacrificed. Defense spending has tripled since before the invasion, now running at roughly 6.3% of GDP, while the budget deficit in the first four months of 2026 was more than double the same period last year. For those of us tracking silver, the transmission chain is worth mapping carefully. A Russian economic collapse – or a chaotic end to the Ukraine war – raises geopolitical uncertainty sharply. Capital flows toward safe haven assets. Gold typically reacts first, but silver follows with higher beta, and it is precisely that volatility which gives silver its asymmetric upside in risk-off environments. The second transmission chain runs through energy markets. Sustained geopolitical stress around a destabilizing Russia could push oil prices higher, feeding inflation globally and complicating the Fed's path toward rate cuts. Higher real rates are a headwind for silver in the near term. But the reverse scenario is equally plausible: a negotiated peace and gradual sanctions relief could normalize Russian energy exports, suppress oil prices, accelerate Fed easing, and weaken the dollar – historically the most powerful catalyst for silver. My read: a weakening Russia is not the primary driver for silver here and now. The decisive catalyst remains Fed policy and real rate trajectory. But Russian fiscal deterioration can accelerate or delay that transmission through energy markets, and it deserves a place in the analytical framework. I continue to watch Brent crude, CME FedWatch, and TIPS yields as primary leading indicators. Are you holding silver as a geopolitical hedge, or is your thesis primarily built on the Fed pivot? This is not investment advice. I hold exposure to silver through AuAg Silver Bullet. - Sources: Børsen Dagbladet – *Russland vakler: Frykter full kollaps* https://borsen.dagbladet.no/nyheter/russland-vakler-frykter-full-kollaps/84820830 IMF – *Russian Federation: GDP Outlook* https://www.imf.org/en/countries/rus CEPA – *Russia Settles for Stagnation* https://cepa.org/article/russia-settles-for-stagnation/ SIPRI – *Military Spending in Russia's Budget 2026* https://www.sipri.org/publications/2026/sipri-insights-peace-and-security/budget-fifth-year-war-military-spending-russias-budget-2026 Kiel Institute – *Endgame: Russia's War Economy Hits Its Limits* https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/news/endgame-russias-war-economy-hits-its-limits/1 t sittenVenäläisiä ei ole kasvatettu ajattelemaan. Jos ajattelee nykyvenäjällä ääneen voi joutua vankilaan tai sotaan. Tätä on jatkunut Leninin ajoista asti. Venäjällä ei varmaan ole juurikaan innovaatioita, jos vahingossa miettii voi jälleen kerran joutua vankilaan. Luulisin että kaivokset toimivat aika huonosti koska eivät saa länsimaista varaosia eikä asiantuntijoita. Kiinasta ja Intiasta varmasti tulee osaamista ja hopeaa myydään sinne minne saadaan myytyä. Venäjä on Pietarin ja Moskovan seutua lukuun ottamatta neuvostoajassa.
- ·8 t sitten · MuokattuThe US Central Command (Centcom) writes in a message on X that they on Saturday carried out new attacks against targets linked to Iran. – Iran was given an opportunity to comply with the ceasefire agreement, but chose not to do so, writes Centcom. They refer to Iran's aggression against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Centcom writes that American military aircraft attacked Iranian military surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, air defense facilities, drone storage, and mine capacity. https://www.vg.no/nyheter/i/0p3zkB/reuters-usa-utfoerer-angrep-mot-iran
- ·13 t sittenThis is a scenario — not a prediction. I believe the oil price will continue downwards. Three bearish drivers are hitting the market simultaneously: OPEC+ has almost 10 million barrels per day in production that disappeared during the Iran war and will gradually return. The UAE left OPEC on May 1 and will soon pump freely towards its capacity limit of 4.85 million barrels per day. And the USA is going to refill strategic oil reserves (SPR), which are now at their lowest level since 1983 — this absorbs some, but the refill rate is six times slower than the withdrawal rate and does not counteract the supply side. If the oil price falls moderately, the energy component in PCE will quickly pull headline inflation down — potentially enough for the Fed under Warsh to keep rates unchanged in September. The transmission chain: lower oil → falling inflation expectations → Fed on pause → real rates flatten out → dollar weakens → silver rises. Silver is currently trading around $58–59 — down 47% from its all-time high of $121 in January. If the scenario holds, $70–80 by December is not unrealistic. But the scenario has an inherent risk: if oil falls too much and too quickly, the narrative shifts from lower inflation to global growth slowdown — and then industrial silver demand is negatively affected despite a potential Fed pause. One more point for those following the FOMC calendar: the rate meeting on July 28–29 is an interim meeting without a dot plot or updated projections (SEP). The quarterly projections — where the market reads the Fed's true intentions — only come in March, June, September, and December. July confirms or refutes Warsh's line; it is the September meeting (15–16) that is decisive. The wildcard is core inflation. Services, rent, and wage growth react much slower to lower energy prices than headline PCE. Warsh can hold rates — but for the wrong reasons for silver: not because inflation is under control, but because the core is still too high for the market to interpret it as a pivot. What do you think — will falling energy prices be enough for the Fed to hold in September, or will core inflation force Warsh to hike anyway? — This is not investment advice. Own position: AuAg Silver Bullet. — Sources: [1] Hormuz-trafikk og normalisering: https://www.hstoday.us/subject-matter-areas/maritime-security/iran-tightens-grip-on-strait-of-hormuz-as-shipping-forced-into-controlled-routes/ [2] OPEC+ produksjon og UAE-exit: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/03/opec-announces-188000-barrels-per-day-output-increase-.html [3] SPR påfyllingsrate og kapasitet: https://mineralrightspodcast.com/mrp-326-running-on-empty-the-u-s-strategic-petroleum-reserve/ [4] Sølvprisprognose 2026–2027: https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/silver-price-forecast-2026-2027-the-bull-case-and-bear-case-laid-out/ [5] FOMC-møtekalender 2026: https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/
- 16 t sittenPan American Silver (NYSE: PAAS) – Analysis in Light of the Precious Metals Correction Pan American Silver (NYSE: PAAS) is trading at $45.45 on June 26, 2026 — down sharply from its highs earlier this year. Technically, the stock has broken below the floor of a rising medium-term trend channel (Investtech). Key levels to watch: support at $46.60 (currently trading below — a negative signal), next support $28.00, resistance at $64.00. Silver (SI) trades at $59.22, down ~51% from its all-time high of $121.64 reached January 29, 2026. What drove the correction? The cause is macro, not company fundamentals. The hawkish FOMC meeting on June 16–17 under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh shifted the rate path dramatically. Goldman Sachs removed all 2026 rate cuts from its forecast, pushing expected easing to mid-2027. May CPI at 4.2% YoY and blowout jobs data (172,000 vs. 80,000 consensus) strengthened the dollar and pushed real yields higher — the classic headwind for precious metals. Gold fell below its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023, and silver, trading with higher beta, took a proportionally harder hit. Fundamentals remain exceptionally strong Q1 2026 results (May 5) delivered revenue of $1.15 billion (+49.3% YoY), net income of $456 million (+170.9% YoY), and free cash flow of $488 million — lifting cash to a record $1.8 billion. The board approved up to $1 billion in shareholder returns for 2026. The La Colorada Skarn project, with peak production potential of 19+ million silver ounces annually, has been approved for development. Next earnings: August 4, 2026. Consensus EPS: $1.06, revenue: $1.18 billion. PAAS analyst targets (updated June 2026) Consensus: Strong Buy — 15 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell over the past three months. Average 12-month price target: $71.15, implying ~57% upside from $45.45. Most recent ratings: TD Cowen upgraded to Buy May 12, raising target from $67 to $72. RBC Capital set a $75 target on April 28 — the highest among major brokers. Jefferies is the most cautious at $54. Institutional silver price targets (2026) J.P. Morgan: full-year average $81/oz. Goldman Sachs: $85–100/oz average. Citigroup: H2 target $110/oz, citing acute physical supply shortages. HSBC: $75/oz. Reuters 30-analyst survey median: $79.50/oz. At $59 today, silver trades well below most institutional consensus estimates for the year. Institutional gold price targets (2026) Goldman Sachs (revised June 20): $4,900. J.P. Morgan: $5,000–6,000. Wells Fargo: $6,100–6,300. UBS: $5,500. Morgan Stanley: $5,200. Gold trades near $4,190 — all major bank targets imply 17–51% upside from current levels. Bottom line There is a significant disconnect between PAAS's operational strength and its current share price of $45.45. With analyst consensus at $71.15 and record Q1 fundamentals, the stock is pricing in macro fear — not business risk. The key variable is the Fed. If Warsh holds rates high, pressure continues. But in a stagflationary scenario — sticky inflation combined with slowing growth — precious metals are historically among the best-positioned asset classes. The structural case remains intact: six consecutive years of silver supply deficits, surging demand from solar, EVs, and AI infrastructure, and central banks that purchased a net 244 tonnes of gold in Q1 2026 alone. This is not investment advice. Trading in commodities and mining equities involves substantial risk of loss. Sources: TipRanks – PAAS analyst consensus and price targets: https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/paas/forecast Benzinga – PAAS analyst ratings (TD Cowen $72, RBC Capital $75): https://www.benzinga.com/quote/PAAS/analyst-ratings Pan American Silver – Q1 2026 earnings release: https://panamericansilver.com/news/pan-american-silver-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-strong-mine-operating-earnings-lead-to-record-cash-balance-and-an-enhanced-shareholder-return-framework/ Canadian Mining Report – Major bank silver price targets 2026: https://www.canadianminingreport.com/blog/major-banks-remain-bullish-on-silver-here-s-what-they-re-predicting GoldSilver.com – Silver bull/bear outlook 2026–2027: https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/silver-price-forecast-2026-2027-the-bull-case-and-bear-case-laid-out/ GoldSilver.com – Major bank gold price targets 2026: https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/gold-price-forecast-2026-2027-key-predictions-from-top-analysts/ GoldRepublic – Goldman Sachs revises gold target to $4,900 (June 2026): https://www.goldrepublic.com/en-us/gold-price/forecast
- ·23 t sittenHormuz escalates Saturday night – what does that mean for silver going forward? Saturday night Norwegian time, the USA carried out attacks against four Iranian targets along the Strait of Hormuz and on Qeshm Island, in retaliation for an Iranian attack against a container ship on Thursday. According to Reuters, Iranian security forces responded shortly after with attacks against American military positions in the region – currently unconfirmed by the American military. CNN's military analyst Cedric Leighton characterizes this as "a significant escalation that could quickly get out of control". The timing is important. Silver traded around $59 at closing time Friday June 26 – down from $70+ when the USA-Iran ceasefire was announced on June 15, and far below the January peak of ~$121. The latest downturn was driven by the hawkish FOMC meeting on June 16-17, where the Fed under Kevin Warsh put rate hike fears back on the table after core inflation came in at 4.2% in May. The gold/silver ratio is now around 68.8 – not extreme, but with room for compression if macro turns. The mechanism is well-known: disrupted shipping through Hormuz → oil shock → inflation impulse. But here is the paradox that makes the silver situation complex right now: more inflation is normally negative for silver if it forces the Fed to keep real interest rates high. It was precisely this logic that pushed silver down from $70 to $59 after the FOMC. What, however, would lift silver is if escalation and geopolitical risk lead the market to price in that Warsh does not dare to hike – that the Fed gets "caught" between inflationary pressure and recession fears – and that real interest rates fall. In addition, a genuinely closed Hormuz could trigger flight to safe havens, pushing gold up and pulling silver with it. Short-term, volatility is high both ways. Monday's opening will provide a first signal as to whether the market interprets the escalation as an inflation trap for the Fed or as a geopolitical risk premium that lifts precious metals. Physical deficits in the silver market – six consecutive years according to the Silver Institute – provide a floor under the price, but it is Fed expectations that have practically driven short-term fluctuations in 2026. I hold AuAg Silver Bullet and am closely following the situation leading up to Monday's opening. What is your assessment – do you interpret escalation at Hormuz as net positive or negative for silver given today's Fed picture? This is not investment advice. All investments involve risk and you may lose the entire amount you invest. Sources: * Dagbladet / Reuters – USA-Iran escalation at Hormuz, June 27, 2026: https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/reuters-iran-svarer-etter-usa-angrep/84824634 * USAGOLD – Silver price Friday June 26, 2026 ($59.04): https://www.usagold.com/daily-silver-price-history/ * GoldSilver.com – Silver Price Outlook June 2026: https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/silver-price-outlook-june-2026/ * GoldSilver.com – Silver Price Forecast 2026–2027: https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/silver-price-forecast-2026-2027-the-bull-case-and-bear-case-laid-out/ * J.P. Morgan Global Research – Silver prices 2026: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/silver-pricesComex Potential delivery vs registered 85.4% High delivery pressure 74.4M oz / 87.1M oz Days to first notice 2 days JUL 2026 contract The next two days will be exciting to follow🥡
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- 9 t sittenRussia's War Economy Is Cracking – What Does It Mean for Silver? Yesterday, Børsen Dagbladet published an analysis painting a grim picture of Russia's war economy. According to the IMF, Russian GDP growth is expected at just 1.1% in 2026, down from nearly 5% the year before. The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) puts it bluntly: Russia can no longer finance the war, control inflation, and generate growth simultaneously – and growth is the one being sacrificed. Defense spending has tripled since before the invasion, now running at roughly 6.3% of GDP, while the budget deficit in the first four months of 2026 was more than double the same period last year. For those of us tracking silver, the transmission chain is worth mapping carefully. A Russian economic collapse – or a chaotic end to the Ukraine war – raises geopolitical uncertainty sharply. Capital flows toward safe haven assets. Gold typically reacts first, but silver follows with higher beta, and it is precisely that volatility which gives silver its asymmetric upside in risk-off environments. The second transmission chain runs through energy markets. Sustained geopolitical stress around a destabilizing Russia could push oil prices higher, feeding inflation globally and complicating the Fed's path toward rate cuts. Higher real rates are a headwind for silver in the near term. But the reverse scenario is equally plausible: a negotiated peace and gradual sanctions relief could normalize Russian energy exports, suppress oil prices, accelerate Fed easing, and weaken the dollar – historically the most powerful catalyst for silver. My read: a weakening Russia is not the primary driver for silver here and now. The decisive catalyst remains Fed policy and real rate trajectory. But Russian fiscal deterioration can accelerate or delay that transmission through energy markets, and it deserves a place in the analytical framework. I continue to watch Brent crude, CME FedWatch, and TIPS yields as primary leading indicators. Are you holding silver as a geopolitical hedge, or is your thesis primarily built on the Fed pivot? This is not investment advice. I hold exposure to silver through AuAg Silver Bullet. - Sources: Børsen Dagbladet – *Russland vakler: Frykter full kollaps* https://borsen.dagbladet.no/nyheter/russland-vakler-frykter-full-kollaps/84820830 IMF – *Russian Federation: GDP Outlook* https://www.imf.org/en/countries/rus CEPA – *Russia Settles for Stagnation* https://cepa.org/article/russia-settles-for-stagnation/ SIPRI – *Military Spending in Russia's Budget 2026* https://www.sipri.org/publications/2026/sipri-insights-peace-and-security/budget-fifth-year-war-military-spending-russias-budget-2026 Kiel Institute – *Endgame: Russia's War Economy Hits Its Limits* https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/news/endgame-russias-war-economy-hits-its-limits/1 t sittenVenäläisiä ei ole kasvatettu ajattelemaan. Jos ajattelee nykyvenäjällä ääneen voi joutua vankilaan tai sotaan. Tätä on jatkunut Leninin ajoista asti. Venäjällä ei varmaan ole juurikaan innovaatioita, jos vahingossa miettii voi jälleen kerran joutua vankilaan. Luulisin että kaivokset toimivat aika huonosti koska eivät saa länsimaista varaosia eikä asiantuntijoita. Kiinasta ja Intiasta varmasti tulee osaamista ja hopeaa myydään sinne minne saadaan myytyä. Venäjä on Pietarin ja Moskovan seutua lukuun ottamatta neuvostoajassa.
- ·8 t sitten · MuokattuThe US Central Command (Centcom) writes in a message on X that they on Saturday carried out new attacks against targets linked to Iran. – Iran was given an opportunity to comply with the ceasefire agreement, but chose not to do so, writes Centcom. They refer to Iran's aggression against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Centcom writes that American military aircraft attacked Iranian military surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, air defense facilities, drone storage, and mine capacity. https://www.vg.no/nyheter/i/0p3zkB/reuters-usa-utfoerer-angrep-mot-iran
- ·13 t sittenThis is a scenario — not a prediction. I believe the oil price will continue downwards. Three bearish drivers are hitting the market simultaneously: OPEC+ has almost 10 million barrels per day in production that disappeared during the Iran war and will gradually return. The UAE left OPEC on May 1 and will soon pump freely towards its capacity limit of 4.85 million barrels per day. And the USA is going to refill strategic oil reserves (SPR), which are now at their lowest level since 1983 — this absorbs some, but the refill rate is six times slower than the withdrawal rate and does not counteract the supply side. If the oil price falls moderately, the energy component in PCE will quickly pull headline inflation down — potentially enough for the Fed under Warsh to keep rates unchanged in September. The transmission chain: lower oil → falling inflation expectations → Fed on pause → real rates flatten out → dollar weakens → silver rises. Silver is currently trading around $58–59 — down 47% from its all-time high of $121 in January. If the scenario holds, $70–80 by December is not unrealistic. But the scenario has an inherent risk: if oil falls too much and too quickly, the narrative shifts from lower inflation to global growth slowdown — and then industrial silver demand is negatively affected despite a potential Fed pause. One more point for those following the FOMC calendar: the rate meeting on July 28–29 is an interim meeting without a dot plot or updated projections (SEP). The quarterly projections — where the market reads the Fed's true intentions — only come in March, June, September, and December. July confirms or refutes Warsh's line; it is the September meeting (15–16) that is decisive. The wildcard is core inflation. Services, rent, and wage growth react much slower to lower energy prices than headline PCE. Warsh can hold rates — but for the wrong reasons for silver: not because inflation is under control, but because the core is still too high for the market to interpret it as a pivot. What do you think — will falling energy prices be enough for the Fed to hold in September, or will core inflation force Warsh to hike anyway? — This is not investment advice. Own position: AuAg Silver Bullet. — Sources: [1] Hormuz-trafikk og normalisering: https://www.hstoday.us/subject-matter-areas/maritime-security/iran-tightens-grip-on-strait-of-hormuz-as-shipping-forced-into-controlled-routes/ [2] OPEC+ produksjon og UAE-exit: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/03/opec-announces-188000-barrels-per-day-output-increase-.html [3] SPR påfyllingsrate og kapasitet: https://mineralrightspodcast.com/mrp-326-running-on-empty-the-u-s-strategic-petroleum-reserve/ [4] Sølvprisprognose 2026–2027: https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/silver-price-forecast-2026-2027-the-bull-case-and-bear-case-laid-out/ [5] FOMC-møtekalender 2026: https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/
- 16 t sittenPan American Silver (NYSE: PAAS) – Analysis in Light of the Precious Metals Correction Pan American Silver (NYSE: PAAS) is trading at $45.45 on June 26, 2026 — down sharply from its highs earlier this year. Technically, the stock has broken below the floor of a rising medium-term trend channel (Investtech). Key levels to watch: support at $46.60 (currently trading below — a negative signal), next support $28.00, resistance at $64.00. Silver (SI) trades at $59.22, down ~51% from its all-time high of $121.64 reached January 29, 2026. What drove the correction? The cause is macro, not company fundamentals. The hawkish FOMC meeting on June 16–17 under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh shifted the rate path dramatically. Goldman Sachs removed all 2026 rate cuts from its forecast, pushing expected easing to mid-2027. May CPI at 4.2% YoY and blowout jobs data (172,000 vs. 80,000 consensus) strengthened the dollar and pushed real yields higher — the classic headwind for precious metals. Gold fell below its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023, and silver, trading with higher beta, took a proportionally harder hit. Fundamentals remain exceptionally strong Q1 2026 results (May 5) delivered revenue of $1.15 billion (+49.3% YoY), net income of $456 million (+170.9% YoY), and free cash flow of $488 million — lifting cash to a record $1.8 billion. The board approved up to $1 billion in shareholder returns for 2026. The La Colorada Skarn project, with peak production potential of 19+ million silver ounces annually, has been approved for development. Next earnings: August 4, 2026. Consensus EPS: $1.06, revenue: $1.18 billion. PAAS analyst targets (updated June 2026) Consensus: Strong Buy — 15 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell over the past three months. Average 12-month price target: $71.15, implying ~57% upside from $45.45. Most recent ratings: TD Cowen upgraded to Buy May 12, raising target from $67 to $72. RBC Capital set a $75 target on April 28 — the highest among major brokers. Jefferies is the most cautious at $54. Institutional silver price targets (2026) J.P. Morgan: full-year average $81/oz. Goldman Sachs: $85–100/oz average. Citigroup: H2 target $110/oz, citing acute physical supply shortages. HSBC: $75/oz. Reuters 30-analyst survey median: $79.50/oz. At $59 today, silver trades well below most institutional consensus estimates for the year. Institutional gold price targets (2026) Goldman Sachs (revised June 20): $4,900. J.P. Morgan: $5,000–6,000. Wells Fargo: $6,100–6,300. UBS: $5,500. Morgan Stanley: $5,200. Gold trades near $4,190 — all major bank targets imply 17–51% upside from current levels. Bottom line There is a significant disconnect between PAAS's operational strength and its current share price of $45.45. With analyst consensus at $71.15 and record Q1 fundamentals, the stock is pricing in macro fear — not business risk. The key variable is the Fed. If Warsh holds rates high, pressure continues. But in a stagflationary scenario — sticky inflation combined with slowing growth — precious metals are historically among the best-positioned asset classes. The structural case remains intact: six consecutive years of silver supply deficits, surging demand from solar, EVs, and AI infrastructure, and central banks that purchased a net 244 tonnes of gold in Q1 2026 alone. This is not investment advice. Trading in commodities and mining equities involves substantial risk of loss. Sources: TipRanks – PAAS analyst consensus and price targets: https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/paas/forecast Benzinga – PAAS analyst ratings (TD Cowen $72, RBC Capital $75): https://www.benzinga.com/quote/PAAS/analyst-ratings Pan American Silver – Q1 2026 earnings release: https://panamericansilver.com/news/pan-american-silver-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-strong-mine-operating-earnings-lead-to-record-cash-balance-and-an-enhanced-shareholder-return-framework/ Canadian Mining Report – Major bank silver price targets 2026: https://www.canadianminingreport.com/blog/major-banks-remain-bullish-on-silver-here-s-what-they-re-predicting GoldSilver.com – Silver bull/bear outlook 2026–2027: https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/silver-price-forecast-2026-2027-the-bull-case-and-bear-case-laid-out/ GoldSilver.com – Major bank gold price targets 2026: https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/gold-price-forecast-2026-2027-key-predictions-from-top-analysts/ GoldRepublic – Goldman Sachs revises gold target to $4,900 (June 2026): https://www.goldrepublic.com/en-us/gold-price/forecast
- ·23 t sittenHormuz escalates Saturday night – what does that mean for silver going forward? Saturday night Norwegian time, the USA carried out attacks against four Iranian targets along the Strait of Hormuz and on Qeshm Island, in retaliation for an Iranian attack against a container ship on Thursday. According to Reuters, Iranian security forces responded shortly after with attacks against American military positions in the region – currently unconfirmed by the American military. CNN's military analyst Cedric Leighton characterizes this as "a significant escalation that could quickly get out of control". The timing is important. Silver traded around $59 at closing time Friday June 26 – down from $70+ when the USA-Iran ceasefire was announced on June 15, and far below the January peak of ~$121. The latest downturn was driven by the hawkish FOMC meeting on June 16-17, where the Fed under Kevin Warsh put rate hike fears back on the table after core inflation came in at 4.2% in May. The gold/silver ratio is now around 68.8 – not extreme, but with room for compression if macro turns. The mechanism is well-known: disrupted shipping through Hormuz → oil shock → inflation impulse. But here is the paradox that makes the silver situation complex right now: more inflation is normally negative for silver if it forces the Fed to keep real interest rates high. It was precisely this logic that pushed silver down from $70 to $59 after the FOMC. What, however, would lift silver is if escalation and geopolitical risk lead the market to price in that Warsh does not dare to hike – that the Fed gets "caught" between inflationary pressure and recession fears – and that real interest rates fall. In addition, a genuinely closed Hormuz could trigger flight to safe havens, pushing gold up and pulling silver with it. Short-term, volatility is high both ways. Monday's opening will provide a first signal as to whether the market interprets the escalation as an inflation trap for the Fed or as a geopolitical risk premium that lifts precious metals. Physical deficits in the silver market – six consecutive years according to the Silver Institute – provide a floor under the price, but it is Fed expectations that have practically driven short-term fluctuations in 2026. I hold AuAg Silver Bullet and am closely following the situation leading up to Monday's opening. What is your assessment – do you interpret escalation at Hormuz as net positive or negative for silver given today's Fed picture? This is not investment advice. All investments involve risk and you may lose the entire amount you invest. Sources: * Dagbladet / Reuters – USA-Iran escalation at Hormuz, June 27, 2026: https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/reuters-iran-svarer-etter-usa-angrep/84824634 * USAGOLD – Silver price Friday June 26, 2026 ($59.04): https://www.usagold.com/daily-silver-price-history/ * GoldSilver.com – Silver Price Outlook June 2026: https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/silver-price-outlook-june-2026/ * GoldSilver.com – Silver Price Forecast 2026–2027: https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/silver-price-forecast-2026-2027-the-bull-case-and-bear-case-laid-out/ * J.P. Morgan Global Research – Silver prices 2026: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/silver-pricesComex Potential delivery vs registered 85.4% High delivery pressure 74.4M oz / 87.1M oz Days to first notice 2 days JUL 2026 contract The next two days will be exciting to follow🥡
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Omistukset
Päivitetty 31.5.2026
Jakauma
- Osakkeet95,8%
- Muut3,5%
- Lyhyt korko0,7%