2026 Q2 -tulosraportti
31 päivää sitten
‧9 min
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Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Rahastot ja ETF:t, joilla on osaketta
Mikään rahasto ei ilmoita osaketta kymmenen suurimman omistuksensa joukossa.
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q3 -tulosraportti 30.10. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 7.8. | ||
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 30.4. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 12.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 14.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 27.8.2025 |
Uutiset
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Kirjaudu
·8.8.After listening to the report walkthrough, I actually became more positive than after just having read the report. What stands out is that Robin says several times that the cost optimization is basically complete and that the focus now completely shifts to scaling revenue on top of the significantly more efficient organization. Agency has also continued to sell strongly and is now at 12m in booked campaigns for 2026, up from approximately 10m in May and corresponds to the entire 2025 Agency revenue of just over 12m, which shows that sales have continued to increase even after Q1. Management believes that growth is no longer driven by individual successful campaigns but by a larger influencer base, AI automation, and the ability to scale internationally. For Vertikal AI, the business model is described more clearly than before: focus is on larger enterprise customers, long contracts with setup fees, recurring monthly revenues, and a land-and-expand model where revenues grow as customers use more AI agents. Tourn is working on a presentation around Vertical AI that will explain more about what is being done and how Tourn onboards its customers and what the future vision is. The entire company's website will also be updated with info on how Tourn works today. The guidance for H2 is also more aggressive than before, with recovery in Nagato, continued growth in Agency, and several larger AI launches during Q3/Q4 which, according to Robin, can generate significantly higher revenues. For me, H2 is therefore no longer about proving that AI can streamline operations, which I actually think Q2 showed, but about proving that operational scalability can also be translated into rapid commercial growth. There, I hope we get continuous data points during H2 that confirm the full-year targets for growth and profitability for 2026- ·7.8.I think the share price reaction reflects a disappointment over growth, not over the quality of the business. If Q2 had shown: Agency 7–8m, Vertical AI over 1m and positive EBITDA, then the stock would likely have reacted completely differently. But the report also shows several improvements that are not visible in the headlines. Therefore, I think that a 13 % drop feels greater than what the fundamental change justifies, provided that management's view of H2 proves to be correct. I do not see Q2 as a quarter that deteriorated Tourn's long-term investment case. Rather, it shifted that case from a narrative about efficiency to concrete evidence of improved margins and operational leverage. The major uncertainty still lies in how quickly the commercial scaling of the AI business can gain momentum, and that is primarily what the market will assess during H2.
- ·7.8.Tourn Q2 - an important step towards scalability After reviewing the Q2 report, I think it's stronger than it might first appear. Revenue did not grow explosively, but the quality of the improvement is significantly higher than in previous quarters. EBITDA improved from -1.08m in Q1 to -0.69m, while cash flow from operating activities became positive and total cash flow essentially reached break-even. What stands out most is the margin development. Nagato increased its net margin from 10.6% to 20.6% despite lower revenue, which shows that the new cost structure is working. Agency increased revenue by just over 50% compared to Q1 and showed clear signs of operational leverage, while booked campaigns for H2 increased to 12m. Vertical AI is still small in terms of revenue but took an important step by reporting 8 AI agents in operation at customers, positive segment profitability, and several enterprise dialogues in final negotiation. I also think the report shows that AI agentification is no longer just a vision. The company still has 8 employees, but internal capacity has increased from 13 to 16 FTE+AI units, while personnel costs continue to decrease. This is concrete proof that AI is starting to provide operational leverage. Looking ahead, H2 will be significantly more important than H1. Agency enters the half-year with a stronger order book, Nagato is expected to recover revenue during Q3 while margins are at record highs, and Vertical AI is starting to get its first measurable KPIs. If AI agents at customers continue to increase and enterprise agreements start to translate into recurring revenue, H2 could be really exciting. Now it's about Q3 and especially the historically strong Q4 showing that revenue growth can accelerate on top of the significantly more efficient cost base that the company has built up over the past year.
- ·5.8.A small company like Tourn can experience very large percentage share price movements if the market starts to believe in the business model, discovering that it truly scales. Today, confidence around scale and model is not that high. A good 2H26 where datapoints are delivered (PM) confirming that the model truly scales can provide significant leverage to the valuation. First up is Q2 on Friday. The single biggest surprise would be if Tourn starts reporting operational AI KPIs in a way that the market can follow quarter by quarter. For example, number of active AI customers, number of implemented AI agents, ARR or MRR linked to AI, average contract value, or customer expansion (land-and-expand). That type of key figures makes it easier for investors to model future growth and can contribute to a revaluation. And in the CEO's statement, I would particularly look for whether management starts talking about recurring AI revenues, customer retention, expansion with existing customers, price levels, implementation time, how many AI agents are actually used, and whether the AI business can scale without a corresponding increase in headcount. That last point is important to keep track of. If the company can show that each new customer does not require proportionally more employees, the business model becomes significantly more scalable.
5.8.One positive thing: the number of shares has increased only slightly and has been same 5 years. So there’s no dillution like many small cap stocks having. - ·3.8.The closer we get to the Q2 report on August 7, the more I think the focus should be on what the company shows rather than just how much revenue they generate. I believe the single most important piece of the puzzle will be AGENCY. In Q1, the company stated that booked campaigns for Q2 amounted to 8.6m, while signed campaign agreements for the full year were later raised to approximately 10m. The figures should not be added as they likely overlap and booked campaigns do not automatically become reported revenue, but they still show that business volume has clearly increased. If 7–8m is actually generated in revenue and the gross margin remains around 32–35 %, there are conditions for a clear boost in EBITDA, especially since the company states that AI agentification has made the organization scalable without a corresponding increase in personnel. Nagato will also be interesting. Q1 showed that the company could significantly improve its gross margin despite lower revenue. At the same time, the broader YouTube ad market has stabilized during Q2 after a weak first quarter, which can support both CPM and margins. For me, it is more important that Nagato can defend the higher profitability than that revenue grows strongly. The biggest question, however, is Vertikal AI. Collaborations with NEP and the financial player show that there is interest, but no order values have been communicated. Therefore, I do not expect several millions in AI revenues already in Q2. However, I hope to see the first signs that the AI business is starting to generate recurring business and not just project revenues. What makes Q2 extra interesting is that, starting this quarter, the company will begin reporting the number of AI agents in operation at customers. I think this is an important first step, but I hope that reporting will gradually evolve with more KPIs, such as the number of AI customers, recurring AI revenues (ARR/MRR), implementations per quarter, and the AI business's margins. Only then can the market begin to assess whether Vertikal AI is developing towards a truly scalable AI-as-a-Service model or if the business is still dominated by consulting projects. I also think it's interesting that the company chose to promise this KPI already in Q1. If there had only been a single AI agent in operation at a customer, they likely could have waited another quarter. My own guess is therefore that Tourn today may have around 10–20 AI agents in operation at 4–6 customers, but that is precisely why the new reporting becomes so important. My main scenario is revenue of 16.5–18.5m and an EBITDA between approximately 0 and +0.7m. A positive EBITDA would naturally be welcome, but for me, it is not the decisive point. Instead, the most important thing will be whether management can show that the AI business is actually starting to scale and at the same time provide clear guidance for Q3. If the report shows growing AI revenues, more AI agents in operation, more enterprise customers, and a strong pipeline, I believe the market will increasingly begin to value Tourn as a company with a scalable AI platform rather than a traditional influencer agency. For me, Q2 is therefore primarily about credibility, i.e., if the company has succeeded in translating the strategy from Q1 into measurable business results, it could be an important milestone for how the market values the company going forward.One of the most interesting questions leading up to Tourn's Q2 report, I think, is whether the market has fully priced in the operational leverage that Agency may be facing. In Q1, the company stated that booked campaigns for Q2 amounted to 8.6 m. This should naturally not be interpreted as the entire amount automatically becoming recognized revenue. Campaigns can be moved between quarters and are recognized as revenue only when the delivery is completed. At the same time, I think many overlook the signal value. Already at the end of Q1, the company had unusually high visibility for the upcoming quarter. A few weeks later, Tourn also announced that signed campaign agreements for 2026 had increased from 7.5 to approximately 10m, which suggests that sales continued even during April and May. Therefore, I believe it is more relevant to reason in probabilities than to try to hit an exact revenue figure. If 70–90 % of the booked volume is delivered during Q2, while some newly added deals are also executed in time, an Agency revenue of around 7–8m appears fully reasonable. This would correspond to an increase of nearly 200 % compared to Q1's 2.85m. What makes this interesting, however, is not the revenue growth itself, but what it could mean for the result. Agency already delivered a gross margin of 32.5 % in Q1, while management has repeatedly emphasized that AI-agentification has made it possible to handle significantly more campaigns without the organization needing to grow at the same pace. If this description truly applies to the development in Q2, a large part of the increased gross profit should fall directly to EBITDA. This is precisely the type of operational leverage that usually creates a rapid improvement in profitability when business volume increases. This also leads to a bigger question: is a positive EBITDA for all of Tourn in Q2 really so unlikely? The Group reported -1.08m in EBITDA during Q1. If Agency alone improves its result by around 1–1.5m, while Nagato continues to deliver stable margins and Vertikal AI limits its deficit, the distance to a positive group result is significantly smaller than many might think. The interesting thing is that this scenario does not actually require any dramatic development within Vertikal AI already in Q2, where the focus for Vertikal AI should instead be on the number of customers and agents (reported KPIs in Q2). It primarily relies on Agency delivering according to the order book the company has already communicated and that the AI-driven work model actually provides the scalability that management has described. If that is the case, Q2 could be the first concrete proof that AI is not just a future investment but already today contributes to improved profitability. With a market capitalization of around 60 MSEK, I therefore think that the big question before the report is not whether revenue will be 16 or 18m. The real question is whether Q2 will be the quarter where Tourn for the first time shows that AI-agentification creates a scalable business model with clear operational leverage. If the answer is yes, it could have greater significance for the valuation than the quarter's figures themselves.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti
31 päivää sitten
‧9 min
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
- ·8.8.After listening to the report walkthrough, I actually became more positive than after just having read the report. What stands out is that Robin says several times that the cost optimization is basically complete and that the focus now completely shifts to scaling revenue on top of the significantly more efficient organization. Agency has also continued to sell strongly and is now at 12m in booked campaigns for 2026, up from approximately 10m in May and corresponds to the entire 2025 Agency revenue of just over 12m, which shows that sales have continued to increase even after Q1. Management believes that growth is no longer driven by individual successful campaigns but by a larger influencer base, AI automation, and the ability to scale internationally. For Vertikal AI, the business model is described more clearly than before: focus is on larger enterprise customers, long contracts with setup fees, recurring monthly revenues, and a land-and-expand model where revenues grow as customers use more AI agents. Tourn is working on a presentation around Vertical AI that will explain more about what is being done and how Tourn onboards its customers and what the future vision is. The entire company's website will also be updated with info on how Tourn works today. The guidance for H2 is also more aggressive than before, with recovery in Nagato, continued growth in Agency, and several larger AI launches during Q3/Q4 which, according to Robin, can generate significantly higher revenues. For me, H2 is therefore no longer about proving that AI can streamline operations, which I actually think Q2 showed, but about proving that operational scalability can also be translated into rapid commercial growth. There, I hope we get continuous data points during H2 that confirm the full-year targets for growth and profitability for 2026
- ·7.8.I think the share price reaction reflects a disappointment over growth, not over the quality of the business. If Q2 had shown: Agency 7–8m, Vertical AI over 1m and positive EBITDA, then the stock would likely have reacted completely differently. But the report also shows several improvements that are not visible in the headlines. Therefore, I think that a 13 % drop feels greater than what the fundamental change justifies, provided that management's view of H2 proves to be correct. I do not see Q2 as a quarter that deteriorated Tourn's long-term investment case. Rather, it shifted that case from a narrative about efficiency to concrete evidence of improved margins and operational leverage. The major uncertainty still lies in how quickly the commercial scaling of the AI business can gain momentum, and that is primarily what the market will assess during H2.
- ·7.8.Tourn Q2 - an important step towards scalability After reviewing the Q2 report, I think it's stronger than it might first appear. Revenue did not grow explosively, but the quality of the improvement is significantly higher than in previous quarters. EBITDA improved from -1.08m in Q1 to -0.69m, while cash flow from operating activities became positive and total cash flow essentially reached break-even. What stands out most is the margin development. Nagato increased its net margin from 10.6% to 20.6% despite lower revenue, which shows that the new cost structure is working. Agency increased revenue by just over 50% compared to Q1 and showed clear signs of operational leverage, while booked campaigns for H2 increased to 12m. Vertical AI is still small in terms of revenue but took an important step by reporting 8 AI agents in operation at customers, positive segment profitability, and several enterprise dialogues in final negotiation. I also think the report shows that AI agentification is no longer just a vision. The company still has 8 employees, but internal capacity has increased from 13 to 16 FTE+AI units, while personnel costs continue to decrease. This is concrete proof that AI is starting to provide operational leverage. Looking ahead, H2 will be significantly more important than H1. Agency enters the half-year with a stronger order book, Nagato is expected to recover revenue during Q3 while margins are at record highs, and Vertical AI is starting to get its first measurable KPIs. If AI agents at customers continue to increase and enterprise agreements start to translate into recurring revenue, H2 could be really exciting. Now it's about Q3 and especially the historically strong Q4 showing that revenue growth can accelerate on top of the significantly more efficient cost base that the company has built up over the past year.
- ·5.8.A small company like Tourn can experience very large percentage share price movements if the market starts to believe in the business model, discovering that it truly scales. Today, confidence around scale and model is not that high. A good 2H26 where datapoints are delivered (PM) confirming that the model truly scales can provide significant leverage to the valuation. First up is Q2 on Friday. The single biggest surprise would be if Tourn starts reporting operational AI KPIs in a way that the market can follow quarter by quarter. For example, number of active AI customers, number of implemented AI agents, ARR or MRR linked to AI, average contract value, or customer expansion (land-and-expand). That type of key figures makes it easier for investors to model future growth and can contribute to a revaluation. And in the CEO's statement, I would particularly look for whether management starts talking about recurring AI revenues, customer retention, expansion with existing customers, price levels, implementation time, how many AI agents are actually used, and whether the AI business can scale without a corresponding increase in headcount. That last point is important to keep track of. If the company can show that each new customer does not require proportionally more employees, the business model becomes significantly more scalable.5.8.One positive thing: the number of shares has increased only slightly and has been same 5 years. So there’s no dillution like many small cap stocks having.
- ·3.8.The closer we get to the Q2 report on August 7, the more I think the focus should be on what the company shows rather than just how much revenue they generate. I believe the single most important piece of the puzzle will be AGENCY. In Q1, the company stated that booked campaigns for Q2 amounted to 8.6m, while signed campaign agreements for the full year were later raised to approximately 10m. The figures should not be added as they likely overlap and booked campaigns do not automatically become reported revenue, but they still show that business volume has clearly increased. If 7–8m is actually generated in revenue and the gross margin remains around 32–35 %, there are conditions for a clear boost in EBITDA, especially since the company states that AI agentification has made the organization scalable without a corresponding increase in personnel. Nagato will also be interesting. Q1 showed that the company could significantly improve its gross margin despite lower revenue. At the same time, the broader YouTube ad market has stabilized during Q2 after a weak first quarter, which can support both CPM and margins. For me, it is more important that Nagato can defend the higher profitability than that revenue grows strongly. The biggest question, however, is Vertikal AI. Collaborations with NEP and the financial player show that there is interest, but no order values have been communicated. Therefore, I do not expect several millions in AI revenues already in Q2. However, I hope to see the first signs that the AI business is starting to generate recurring business and not just project revenues. What makes Q2 extra interesting is that, starting this quarter, the company will begin reporting the number of AI agents in operation at customers. I think this is an important first step, but I hope that reporting will gradually evolve with more KPIs, such as the number of AI customers, recurring AI revenues (ARR/MRR), implementations per quarter, and the AI business's margins. Only then can the market begin to assess whether Vertikal AI is developing towards a truly scalable AI-as-a-Service model or if the business is still dominated by consulting projects. I also think it's interesting that the company chose to promise this KPI already in Q1. If there had only been a single AI agent in operation at a customer, they likely could have waited another quarter. My own guess is therefore that Tourn today may have around 10–20 AI agents in operation at 4–6 customers, but that is precisely why the new reporting becomes so important. My main scenario is revenue of 16.5–18.5m and an EBITDA between approximately 0 and +0.7m. A positive EBITDA would naturally be welcome, but for me, it is not the decisive point. Instead, the most important thing will be whether management can show that the AI business is actually starting to scale and at the same time provide clear guidance for Q3. If the report shows growing AI revenues, more AI agents in operation, more enterprise customers, and a strong pipeline, I believe the market will increasingly begin to value Tourn as a company with a scalable AI platform rather than a traditional influencer agency. For me, Q2 is therefore primarily about credibility, i.e., if the company has succeeded in translating the strategy from Q1 into measurable business results, it could be an important milestone for how the market values the company going forward.One of the most interesting questions leading up to Tourn's Q2 report, I think, is whether the market has fully priced in the operational leverage that Agency may be facing. In Q1, the company stated that booked campaigns for Q2 amounted to 8.6 m. This should naturally not be interpreted as the entire amount automatically becoming recognized revenue. Campaigns can be moved between quarters and are recognized as revenue only when the delivery is completed. At the same time, I think many overlook the signal value. Already at the end of Q1, the company had unusually high visibility for the upcoming quarter. A few weeks later, Tourn also announced that signed campaign agreements for 2026 had increased from 7.5 to approximately 10m, which suggests that sales continued even during April and May. Therefore, I believe it is more relevant to reason in probabilities than to try to hit an exact revenue figure. If 70–90 % of the booked volume is delivered during Q2, while some newly added deals are also executed in time, an Agency revenue of around 7–8m appears fully reasonable. This would correspond to an increase of nearly 200 % compared to Q1's 2.85m. What makes this interesting, however, is not the revenue growth itself, but what it could mean for the result. Agency already delivered a gross margin of 32.5 % in Q1, while management has repeatedly emphasized that AI-agentification has made it possible to handle significantly more campaigns without the organization needing to grow at the same pace. If this description truly applies to the development in Q2, a large part of the increased gross profit should fall directly to EBITDA. This is precisely the type of operational leverage that usually creates a rapid improvement in profitability when business volume increases. This also leads to a bigger question: is a positive EBITDA for all of Tourn in Q2 really so unlikely? The Group reported -1.08m in EBITDA during Q1. If Agency alone improves its result by around 1–1.5m, while Nagato continues to deliver stable margins and Vertikal AI limits its deficit, the distance to a positive group result is significantly smaller than many might think. The interesting thing is that this scenario does not actually require any dramatic development within Vertikal AI already in Q2, where the focus for Vertikal AI should instead be on the number of customers and agents (reported KPIs in Q2). It primarily relies on Agency delivering according to the order book the company has already communicated and that the AI-driven work model actually provides the scalability that management has described. If that is the case, Q2 could be the first concrete proof that AI is not just a future investment but already today contributes to improved profitability. With a market capitalization of around 60 MSEK, I therefore think that the big question before the report is not whether revenue will be 16 or 18m. The real question is whether Q2 will be the quarter where Tourn for the first time shows that AI-agentification creates a scalable business model with clear operational leverage. If the answer is yes, it could have greater significance for the valuation than the quarter's figures themselves.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Määrä
Osto
-
Myynti
Määrä
-
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 250 | - | - | ||
| 1 220 | - | - | ||
| 250 | - | - | ||
| 500 | - | - | ||
| 500 | - | - |
Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Rahastot ja ETF:t, joilla on osaketta
Mikään rahasto ei ilmoita osaketta kymmenen suurimman omistuksensa joukossa.
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q3 -tulosraportti 30.10. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 7.8. | ||
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 30.4. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 12.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 14.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 27.8.2025 |
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti
31 päivää sitten
‧9 min
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q3 -tulosraportti 30.10. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 7.8. | ||
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 30.4. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 12.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 14.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 27.8.2025 |
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
- ·8.8.After listening to the report walkthrough, I actually became more positive than after just having read the report. What stands out is that Robin says several times that the cost optimization is basically complete and that the focus now completely shifts to scaling revenue on top of the significantly more efficient organization. Agency has also continued to sell strongly and is now at 12m in booked campaigns for 2026, up from approximately 10m in May and corresponds to the entire 2025 Agency revenue of just over 12m, which shows that sales have continued to increase even after Q1. Management believes that growth is no longer driven by individual successful campaigns but by a larger influencer base, AI automation, and the ability to scale internationally. For Vertikal AI, the business model is described more clearly than before: focus is on larger enterprise customers, long contracts with setup fees, recurring monthly revenues, and a land-and-expand model where revenues grow as customers use more AI agents. Tourn is working on a presentation around Vertical AI that will explain more about what is being done and how Tourn onboards its customers and what the future vision is. The entire company's website will also be updated with info on how Tourn works today. The guidance for H2 is also more aggressive than before, with recovery in Nagato, continued growth in Agency, and several larger AI launches during Q3/Q4 which, according to Robin, can generate significantly higher revenues. For me, H2 is therefore no longer about proving that AI can streamline operations, which I actually think Q2 showed, but about proving that operational scalability can also be translated into rapid commercial growth. There, I hope we get continuous data points during H2 that confirm the full-year targets for growth and profitability for 2026
- ·7.8.I think the share price reaction reflects a disappointment over growth, not over the quality of the business. If Q2 had shown: Agency 7–8m, Vertical AI over 1m and positive EBITDA, then the stock would likely have reacted completely differently. But the report also shows several improvements that are not visible in the headlines. Therefore, I think that a 13 % drop feels greater than what the fundamental change justifies, provided that management's view of H2 proves to be correct. I do not see Q2 as a quarter that deteriorated Tourn's long-term investment case. Rather, it shifted that case from a narrative about efficiency to concrete evidence of improved margins and operational leverage. The major uncertainty still lies in how quickly the commercial scaling of the AI business can gain momentum, and that is primarily what the market will assess during H2.
- ·7.8.Tourn Q2 - an important step towards scalability After reviewing the Q2 report, I think it's stronger than it might first appear. Revenue did not grow explosively, but the quality of the improvement is significantly higher than in previous quarters. EBITDA improved from -1.08m in Q1 to -0.69m, while cash flow from operating activities became positive and total cash flow essentially reached break-even. What stands out most is the margin development. Nagato increased its net margin from 10.6% to 20.6% despite lower revenue, which shows that the new cost structure is working. Agency increased revenue by just over 50% compared to Q1 and showed clear signs of operational leverage, while booked campaigns for H2 increased to 12m. Vertical AI is still small in terms of revenue but took an important step by reporting 8 AI agents in operation at customers, positive segment profitability, and several enterprise dialogues in final negotiation. I also think the report shows that AI agentification is no longer just a vision. The company still has 8 employees, but internal capacity has increased from 13 to 16 FTE+AI units, while personnel costs continue to decrease. This is concrete proof that AI is starting to provide operational leverage. Looking ahead, H2 will be significantly more important than H1. Agency enters the half-year with a stronger order book, Nagato is expected to recover revenue during Q3 while margins are at record highs, and Vertical AI is starting to get its first measurable KPIs. If AI agents at customers continue to increase and enterprise agreements start to translate into recurring revenue, H2 could be really exciting. Now it's about Q3 and especially the historically strong Q4 showing that revenue growth can accelerate on top of the significantly more efficient cost base that the company has built up over the past year.
- ·5.8.A small company like Tourn can experience very large percentage share price movements if the market starts to believe in the business model, discovering that it truly scales. Today, confidence around scale and model is not that high. A good 2H26 where datapoints are delivered (PM) confirming that the model truly scales can provide significant leverage to the valuation. First up is Q2 on Friday. The single biggest surprise would be if Tourn starts reporting operational AI KPIs in a way that the market can follow quarter by quarter. For example, number of active AI customers, number of implemented AI agents, ARR or MRR linked to AI, average contract value, or customer expansion (land-and-expand). That type of key figures makes it easier for investors to model future growth and can contribute to a revaluation. And in the CEO's statement, I would particularly look for whether management starts talking about recurring AI revenues, customer retention, expansion with existing customers, price levels, implementation time, how many AI agents are actually used, and whether the AI business can scale without a corresponding increase in headcount. That last point is important to keep track of. If the company can show that each new customer does not require proportionally more employees, the business model becomes significantly more scalable.5.8.One positive thing: the number of shares has increased only slightly and has been same 5 years. So there’s no dillution like many small cap stocks having.
- ·3.8.The closer we get to the Q2 report on August 7, the more I think the focus should be on what the company shows rather than just how much revenue they generate. I believe the single most important piece of the puzzle will be AGENCY. In Q1, the company stated that booked campaigns for Q2 amounted to 8.6m, while signed campaign agreements for the full year were later raised to approximately 10m. The figures should not be added as they likely overlap and booked campaigns do not automatically become reported revenue, but they still show that business volume has clearly increased. If 7–8m is actually generated in revenue and the gross margin remains around 32–35 %, there are conditions for a clear boost in EBITDA, especially since the company states that AI agentification has made the organization scalable without a corresponding increase in personnel. Nagato will also be interesting. Q1 showed that the company could significantly improve its gross margin despite lower revenue. At the same time, the broader YouTube ad market has stabilized during Q2 after a weak first quarter, which can support both CPM and margins. For me, it is more important that Nagato can defend the higher profitability than that revenue grows strongly. The biggest question, however, is Vertikal AI. Collaborations with NEP and the financial player show that there is interest, but no order values have been communicated. Therefore, I do not expect several millions in AI revenues already in Q2. However, I hope to see the first signs that the AI business is starting to generate recurring business and not just project revenues. What makes Q2 extra interesting is that, starting this quarter, the company will begin reporting the number of AI agents in operation at customers. I think this is an important first step, but I hope that reporting will gradually evolve with more KPIs, such as the number of AI customers, recurring AI revenues (ARR/MRR), implementations per quarter, and the AI business's margins. Only then can the market begin to assess whether Vertikal AI is developing towards a truly scalable AI-as-a-Service model or if the business is still dominated by consulting projects. I also think it's interesting that the company chose to promise this KPI already in Q1. If there had only been a single AI agent in operation at a customer, they likely could have waited another quarter. My own guess is therefore that Tourn today may have around 10–20 AI agents in operation at 4–6 customers, but that is precisely why the new reporting becomes so important. My main scenario is revenue of 16.5–18.5m and an EBITDA between approximately 0 and +0.7m. A positive EBITDA would naturally be welcome, but for me, it is not the decisive point. Instead, the most important thing will be whether management can show that the AI business is actually starting to scale and at the same time provide clear guidance for Q3. If the report shows growing AI revenues, more AI agents in operation, more enterprise customers, and a strong pipeline, I believe the market will increasingly begin to value Tourn as a company with a scalable AI platform rather than a traditional influencer agency. For me, Q2 is therefore primarily about credibility, i.e., if the company has succeeded in translating the strategy from Q1 into measurable business results, it could be an important milestone for how the market values the company going forward.One of the most interesting questions leading up to Tourn's Q2 report, I think, is whether the market has fully priced in the operational leverage that Agency may be facing. In Q1, the company stated that booked campaigns for Q2 amounted to 8.6 m. This should naturally not be interpreted as the entire amount automatically becoming recognized revenue. Campaigns can be moved between quarters and are recognized as revenue only when the delivery is completed. At the same time, I think many overlook the signal value. Already at the end of Q1, the company had unusually high visibility for the upcoming quarter. A few weeks later, Tourn also announced that signed campaign agreements for 2026 had increased from 7.5 to approximately 10m, which suggests that sales continued even during April and May. Therefore, I believe it is more relevant to reason in probabilities than to try to hit an exact revenue figure. If 70–90 % of the booked volume is delivered during Q2, while some newly added deals are also executed in time, an Agency revenue of around 7–8m appears fully reasonable. This would correspond to an increase of nearly 200 % compared to Q1's 2.85m. What makes this interesting, however, is not the revenue growth itself, but what it could mean for the result. Agency already delivered a gross margin of 32.5 % in Q1, while management has repeatedly emphasized that AI-agentification has made it possible to handle significantly more campaigns without the organization needing to grow at the same pace. If this description truly applies to the development in Q2, a large part of the increased gross profit should fall directly to EBITDA. This is precisely the type of operational leverage that usually creates a rapid improvement in profitability when business volume increases. This also leads to a bigger question: is a positive EBITDA for all of Tourn in Q2 really so unlikely? The Group reported -1.08m in EBITDA during Q1. If Agency alone improves its result by around 1–1.5m, while Nagato continues to deliver stable margins and Vertikal AI limits its deficit, the distance to a positive group result is significantly smaller than many might think. The interesting thing is that this scenario does not actually require any dramatic development within Vertikal AI already in Q2, where the focus for Vertikal AI should instead be on the number of customers and agents (reported KPIs in Q2). It primarily relies on Agency delivering according to the order book the company has already communicated and that the AI-driven work model actually provides the scalability that management has described. If that is the case, Q2 could be the first concrete proof that AI is not just a future investment but already today contributes to improved profitability. With a market capitalization of around 60 MSEK, I therefore think that the big question before the report is not whether revenue will be 16 or 18m. The real question is whether Q2 will be the quarter where Tourn for the first time shows that AI-agentification creates a scalable business model with clear operational leverage. If the answer is yes, it could have greater significance for the valuation than the quarter's figures themselves.
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