2025 Q3 -tulosraportti
99 päivää sitten
‧37 min
0,6361 NOK/osake
Viimeisin osinko
6,73%Tuotto/v
Tarjoustasot
Oslo Børs
Määrä
Osto
500
Myynti
Määrä
1 000
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | - | - | ||
| 2 | - | - | ||
| 462 | - | - | ||
| 740 | - | - | ||
| 136 | - | - |
Ylin
52,9VWAP
Alin
50,7VaihtoMäärä
9,9 190 421
VWAP
Ylin
52,9Alin
50,7VaihtoMäärä
9,9 190 421
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 27.2. | 5 päivää |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 14.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 28.8.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 2.6.2025 | ||
2024 Q4 -tulosraportti 27.2.2025 | ||
2024 Q3 -tulosraportti 15.11.2024 |
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
Kirjaudu
·4 t sittenA small reflection from me on the last few days' posts/replies. I might be repeating myself, but I think it's wise to nuance a bit why the share price has actually risen. It's easy to explain everything with takeover rumors, but the reality is that BWO has long been among the most underpriced companies on the Oslo Stock Exchange. I believe a large part of the increase is a repricing towards more realistic levels. Lately, a lot has also happened fundamentally: the risk around BW Opal has largely been removed, cash flow has become more visible, the company is performing better, and new projects and opportunities are constantly emerging. It's not just rumors that have changed this picture; the company has actually become stronger. Therefore, I also find the argument that the share price will “fall sharply” if there is no sale a bit strange. Why is that, really? The share price is now around 52,40, and the second largest owner has bought heavily around 50. Incidentally, a new off-book trade took place on Friday, 66009 shares at 52,30. If BW Group says no to a bid of 50–60-70 or even 80kr, it simply means they value it higher. The same logic must apply to Cobas, which continues to buy. Takeover rumors may certainly have created attention around BWO, but I believe much of the share price increase is due to the market finally starting to see the values that have been there for a long time. It is still below book equity, earnings are increasing, and dividend capacity is rising. So for me, the starting point is not that the share price will fall if there is no sale. On the contrary, then you are left with a company that is still cheap relative to values and cash flow, and which over time should be priced higher. I'm looking forward to the presentation on Friday:-)
·1 päivä sittenOn December 5th, management confirmed that a "strategic review of potential alternatives" was underway, at which point the price was 37.85. Let's assume that negotiations began a few weeks earlier at a price of approx. 36 kr. Today we have an increase of 41.7%. My thoughts are that a negotiated solution may seem much more difficult when the share price has risen so much while negotiations have been ongoing. At least with a potential bid in mind.
·1 päivä sittenMy simple opinion as an investor for several years is that a fair price of 70Nok minimum is worth considering. With a return of 7-8Nok/year per share, I see no reason to accept less for BW group. Could the Bay Du Nord contract be an explanation for this wait?
·16.2. · MuokattuOff-book trading last week was about 3 million shares. Of these 3 million, 600,000 were probably Cobas the buyer on Monday. This leaves 2.4 million from last week's trading, which we can speculate about who the buyer is. If we keep track of the numbers here, Cobas must make a new disclosure when they pass 20 %, if it is they who are accumulating. They were at 15.3 % on Monday. A new 4.7 % amounts to 8.7 million shares. This means, assuming that Cobas bought the 2.4 million shares last week that were not bought on Monday, that they have 6.3 million left before a disclosure must be made. As a matter of mathematical curiosity, I see from the disclosure report that Cobas bases its calculation on total issued shares, and does not take into account that BWO owns almost four million of its own shares. As I have understood the disclosure rules, the company's holding of its own shares will affect when the thresholds are reached. In that sense, in my assessment, Cobas reached the disclosure limit earlier than they reported. There are 181.2 million shares that the company does not own itself. The thresholds for disclosure must be based on this number. What I am stating here as a basis, means that Cobas must disclose when they pass 36.25 million shares. They owned 28.3 million shares on Monday, and PERHAPS bought 2.4 million shares from Tuesday to Friday last week. In that case, they now own 30.7 million shares, and then only need 5.5 million more before they must disclose again.·3 päivää sittenIt appears that the third largest owner, Salt Value, managed by Harald Espedal, but with Erling Haaland among others on the investor side, is among those who have sold down somewhat: "Espedal has chosen to sell down in DNO, BW Offshore and Aker BP over the past month. In total, it concerns share sales for around 150 million kroner." https://www.finansavisen.no/energi/2026/02/18/8329420/bunnfisker-ai-frykt-aksjer-selger-i-olje
·15.2.I'm sticking my neck out here, attempting to summarize some observations. These are just loose thoughts from someone who is not an expert, and I try to think in probabilities rather than definitive conclusions. First, a couple of obvious things: BW Group is a long-term industrial owner, and they don't have to sell. They have a functioning industrial platform, and BWO is one of the few pure-play FPSO companies that has survived the cycle since the construction boom around 2005–2014. This is no longer a market where it's easy to establish oneself, neither technically, commercially, nor financially. At the same time, The Carlyle Group is unlikely to pay an exorbitant price. They recently acquired Altera Infrastructure's FPSO portfolio, and the rationale will probably be to build a larger platform over time. For that to make sense, they must realistically be able to achieve a satisfactory IRR on equity, which naturally sets an upper limit for what they can pay. Then we have Cobas Asset Management, which has continued to be a buyer around the 50 kr level. They are not known for short-term trading but invest based on underlying value and asymmetry. The fact that they are still buying may indicate that they see a probability-weighted value that is higher than today's price, although this, of course, provides no guarantee of the outcome. I also don't believe they will sell the FPSO part separately and be left with Ideol and remaining small projects. I assume all or nothing, possibly a JV where only BWG and Carlyle remain. The latter could actually be a possibility. BWG and Carlyle redeem the minority shareholders and make an ownership distribution among themselves. BWG would then participate in a growth platform based on Carlyle's FPSOs, which they bought from Altera Infrastructure Group, and BWO's own FPSO. Standard PE thinking would then be to make several bolt-on acquisitions, based on the value of the equity and the use of this as currency for new acquisitions. Regarding Bay du Nord, in my view, this primarily appears as an option value as of today. The value only materializes if the project receives a final investment decision and BWO is actually awarded an FPSO contract. It therefore seems reasonable that the market only prices in a limited part of this potential upside now. I also believe it's important to distinguish between book value and economic value. The stand-alone value can realistically be below book equity, as the value in practice is determined by discounted future cash flows and residual value – not historically invested capital. At the same time, the replacement cost for new FPSOs is significantly higher today than when many of BWO's units were built. Increased construction costs, limited yard capacity, and long delivery times mean that existing operational units can have a strategic value that is not necessarily fully reflected in book figures or in today's share price. In my view, this provides some structural support in the long term, even if it doesn't automatically lift the equity value here and now. If no deal is reached, I would assume that the price will fall back somewhat, as today's level probably contains a certain M&A optionality. A pure stand-alone valuation could then be somewhat lower than today's price, perhaps in the low to mid-40s range, depending on how the market assesses contract length, debt, and future projects. With that as a backdrop, I try to think explicitly in probabilities. My rough assessment as of today is approximately: 35 % probability that no transaction occurs within 12 months 30 % probability of a bid around ~70 kr 25 % probability of a bid around ~85 kr 10 % probability of a more aggressive outcome around ~100 kr This gives a probability-weighted value in the high-60s range per share. This is, of course, uncertain, and small changes in probabilities lead to large swings, but with a price around 50 kr, this still implies a positive expected value as I see it. This is only a personal assessment based on publicly available information and an attempt to structure uncertainty in an orderly manner. I have no insight into any negotiations and can, of course, be wrong.
·17.2.Agree high in the 60s. But the higher part of the interval is quite unlikely. Probably BWO should perhaps wait a few years for a potential sale. Because prices for new FPSOs are increasing. And probably the book values (and replacement values) will increase going forward.·17.2.I am not trying to hit one correct number, but to assess a spectrum of possible outcomes and their probability. The aggressive outcome is not a main scenario, but a possible tail outcome. At the same time, I can naturally overestimate the probability of this, and then the expected value will also be lower.
·13.2.With this, I wish to commend the writers on the BWO thread. I participate myself now and then (not so much on this thread, but I do read here, and learn). Many engaged and knowledgeable contributors here, with informative and serious comments. Kudos. I myself own a few thousand BWO shares, where the first ones were bought 21/9 2010. Since then, there have surely been hundreds of smaller buy and sell transactions to the delight of Netfonds, then Nordnet. Nevertheless, I have never gone in-depth into this favorite as many of you on the thread have done. Btw, the 1000 shares in 2010 cost me NOK 9849,- according to the Netfonds history :-)
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti
99 päivää sitten
‧37 min
0,6361 NOK/osake
Viimeisin osinko
6,73%Tuotto/v
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
Kirjaudu
- ·4 t sittenA small reflection from me on the last few days' posts/replies. I might be repeating myself, but I think it's wise to nuance a bit why the share price has actually risen. It's easy to explain everything with takeover rumors, but the reality is that BWO has long been among the most underpriced companies on the Oslo Stock Exchange. I believe a large part of the increase is a repricing towards more realistic levels. Lately, a lot has also happened fundamentally: the risk around BW Opal has largely been removed, cash flow has become more visible, the company is performing better, and new projects and opportunities are constantly emerging. It's not just rumors that have changed this picture; the company has actually become stronger. Therefore, I also find the argument that the share price will “fall sharply” if there is no sale a bit strange. Why is that, really? The share price is now around 52,40, and the second largest owner has bought heavily around 50. Incidentally, a new off-book trade took place on Friday, 66009 shares at 52,30. If BW Group says no to a bid of 50–60-70 or even 80kr, it simply means they value it higher. The same logic must apply to Cobas, which continues to buy. Takeover rumors may certainly have created attention around BWO, but I believe much of the share price increase is due to the market finally starting to see the values that have been there for a long time. It is still below book equity, earnings are increasing, and dividend capacity is rising. So for me, the starting point is not that the share price will fall if there is no sale. On the contrary, then you are left with a company that is still cheap relative to values and cash flow, and which over time should be priced higher. I'm looking forward to the presentation on Friday:-)
- ·1 päivä sittenOn December 5th, management confirmed that a "strategic review of potential alternatives" was underway, at which point the price was 37.85. Let's assume that negotiations began a few weeks earlier at a price of approx. 36 kr. Today we have an increase of 41.7%. My thoughts are that a negotiated solution may seem much more difficult when the share price has risen so much while negotiations have been ongoing. At least with a potential bid in mind.·1 päivä sittenMy simple opinion as an investor for several years is that a fair price of 70Nok minimum is worth considering. With a return of 7-8Nok/year per share, I see no reason to accept less for BW group. Could the Bay Du Nord contract be an explanation for this wait?
- ·16.2. · MuokattuOff-book trading last week was about 3 million shares. Of these 3 million, 600,000 were probably Cobas the buyer on Monday. This leaves 2.4 million from last week's trading, which we can speculate about who the buyer is. If we keep track of the numbers here, Cobas must make a new disclosure when they pass 20 %, if it is they who are accumulating. They were at 15.3 % on Monday. A new 4.7 % amounts to 8.7 million shares. This means, assuming that Cobas bought the 2.4 million shares last week that were not bought on Monday, that they have 6.3 million left before a disclosure must be made. As a matter of mathematical curiosity, I see from the disclosure report that Cobas bases its calculation on total issued shares, and does not take into account that BWO owns almost four million of its own shares. As I have understood the disclosure rules, the company's holding of its own shares will affect when the thresholds are reached. In that sense, in my assessment, Cobas reached the disclosure limit earlier than they reported. There are 181.2 million shares that the company does not own itself. The thresholds for disclosure must be based on this number. What I am stating here as a basis, means that Cobas must disclose when they pass 36.25 million shares. They owned 28.3 million shares on Monday, and PERHAPS bought 2.4 million shares from Tuesday to Friday last week. In that case, they now own 30.7 million shares, and then only need 5.5 million more before they must disclose again.·3 päivää sittenIt appears that the third largest owner, Salt Value, managed by Harald Espedal, but with Erling Haaland among others on the investor side, is among those who have sold down somewhat: "Espedal has chosen to sell down in DNO, BW Offshore and Aker BP over the past month. In total, it concerns share sales for around 150 million kroner." https://www.finansavisen.no/energi/2026/02/18/8329420/bunnfisker-ai-frykt-aksjer-selger-i-olje
- ·15.2.I'm sticking my neck out here, attempting to summarize some observations. These are just loose thoughts from someone who is not an expert, and I try to think in probabilities rather than definitive conclusions. First, a couple of obvious things: BW Group is a long-term industrial owner, and they don't have to sell. They have a functioning industrial platform, and BWO is one of the few pure-play FPSO companies that has survived the cycle since the construction boom around 2005–2014. This is no longer a market where it's easy to establish oneself, neither technically, commercially, nor financially. At the same time, The Carlyle Group is unlikely to pay an exorbitant price. They recently acquired Altera Infrastructure's FPSO portfolio, and the rationale will probably be to build a larger platform over time. For that to make sense, they must realistically be able to achieve a satisfactory IRR on equity, which naturally sets an upper limit for what they can pay. Then we have Cobas Asset Management, which has continued to be a buyer around the 50 kr level. They are not known for short-term trading but invest based on underlying value and asymmetry. The fact that they are still buying may indicate that they see a probability-weighted value that is higher than today's price, although this, of course, provides no guarantee of the outcome. I also don't believe they will sell the FPSO part separately and be left with Ideol and remaining small projects. I assume all or nothing, possibly a JV where only BWG and Carlyle remain. The latter could actually be a possibility. BWG and Carlyle redeem the minority shareholders and make an ownership distribution among themselves. BWG would then participate in a growth platform based on Carlyle's FPSOs, which they bought from Altera Infrastructure Group, and BWO's own FPSO. Standard PE thinking would then be to make several bolt-on acquisitions, based on the value of the equity and the use of this as currency for new acquisitions. Regarding Bay du Nord, in my view, this primarily appears as an option value as of today. The value only materializes if the project receives a final investment decision and BWO is actually awarded an FPSO contract. It therefore seems reasonable that the market only prices in a limited part of this potential upside now. I also believe it's important to distinguish between book value and economic value. The stand-alone value can realistically be below book equity, as the value in practice is determined by discounted future cash flows and residual value – not historically invested capital. At the same time, the replacement cost for new FPSOs is significantly higher today than when many of BWO's units were built. Increased construction costs, limited yard capacity, and long delivery times mean that existing operational units can have a strategic value that is not necessarily fully reflected in book figures or in today's share price. In my view, this provides some structural support in the long term, even if it doesn't automatically lift the equity value here and now. If no deal is reached, I would assume that the price will fall back somewhat, as today's level probably contains a certain M&A optionality. A pure stand-alone valuation could then be somewhat lower than today's price, perhaps in the low to mid-40s range, depending on how the market assesses contract length, debt, and future projects. With that as a backdrop, I try to think explicitly in probabilities. My rough assessment as of today is approximately: 35 % probability that no transaction occurs within 12 months 30 % probability of a bid around ~70 kr 25 % probability of a bid around ~85 kr 10 % probability of a more aggressive outcome around ~100 kr This gives a probability-weighted value in the high-60s range per share. This is, of course, uncertain, and small changes in probabilities lead to large swings, but with a price around 50 kr, this still implies a positive expected value as I see it. This is only a personal assessment based on publicly available information and an attempt to structure uncertainty in an orderly manner. I have no insight into any negotiations and can, of course, be wrong.·17.2.Agree high in the 60s. But the higher part of the interval is quite unlikely. Probably BWO should perhaps wait a few years for a potential sale. Because prices for new FPSOs are increasing. And probably the book values (and replacement values) will increase going forward.·17.2.I am not trying to hit one correct number, but to assess a spectrum of possible outcomes and their probability. The aggressive outcome is not a main scenario, but a possible tail outcome. At the same time, I can naturally overestimate the probability of this, and then the expected value will also be lower.
- ·13.2.With this, I wish to commend the writers on the BWO thread. I participate myself now and then (not so much on this thread, but I do read here, and learn). Many engaged and knowledgeable contributors here, with informative and serious comments. Kudos. I myself own a few thousand BWO shares, where the first ones were bought 21/9 2010. Since then, there have surely been hundreds of smaller buy and sell transactions to the delight of Netfonds, then Nordnet. Nevertheless, I have never gone in-depth into this favorite as many of you on the thread have done. Btw, the 1000 shares in 2010 cost me NOK 9849,- according to the Netfonds history :-)
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Oslo Børs
Määrä
Osto
500
Myynti
Määrä
1 000
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | - | - | ||
| 2 | - | - | ||
| 462 | - | - | ||
| 740 | - | - | ||
| 136 | - | - |
Ylin
52,9VWAP
Alin
50,7VaihtoMäärä
9,9 190 421
VWAP
Ylin
52,9Alin
50,7VaihtoMäärä
9,9 190 421
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 27.2. | 5 päivää |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 14.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 28.8.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 2.6.2025 | ||
2024 Q4 -tulosraportti 27.2.2025 | ||
2024 Q3 -tulosraportti 15.11.2024 |
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti
99 päivää sitten
‧37 min
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 27.2. | 5 päivää |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 14.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 28.8.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 2.6.2025 | ||
2024 Q4 -tulosraportti 27.2.2025 | ||
2024 Q3 -tulosraportti 15.11.2024 |
0,6361 NOK/osake
Viimeisin osinko
6,73%Tuotto/v
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
Kirjaudu
- ·4 t sittenA small reflection from me on the last few days' posts/replies. I might be repeating myself, but I think it's wise to nuance a bit why the share price has actually risen. It's easy to explain everything with takeover rumors, but the reality is that BWO has long been among the most underpriced companies on the Oslo Stock Exchange. I believe a large part of the increase is a repricing towards more realistic levels. Lately, a lot has also happened fundamentally: the risk around BW Opal has largely been removed, cash flow has become more visible, the company is performing better, and new projects and opportunities are constantly emerging. It's not just rumors that have changed this picture; the company has actually become stronger. Therefore, I also find the argument that the share price will “fall sharply” if there is no sale a bit strange. Why is that, really? The share price is now around 52,40, and the second largest owner has bought heavily around 50. Incidentally, a new off-book trade took place on Friday, 66009 shares at 52,30. If BW Group says no to a bid of 50–60-70 or even 80kr, it simply means they value it higher. The same logic must apply to Cobas, which continues to buy. Takeover rumors may certainly have created attention around BWO, but I believe much of the share price increase is due to the market finally starting to see the values that have been there for a long time. It is still below book equity, earnings are increasing, and dividend capacity is rising. So for me, the starting point is not that the share price will fall if there is no sale. On the contrary, then you are left with a company that is still cheap relative to values and cash flow, and which over time should be priced higher. I'm looking forward to the presentation on Friday:-)
- ·1 päivä sittenOn December 5th, management confirmed that a "strategic review of potential alternatives" was underway, at which point the price was 37.85. Let's assume that negotiations began a few weeks earlier at a price of approx. 36 kr. Today we have an increase of 41.7%. My thoughts are that a negotiated solution may seem much more difficult when the share price has risen so much while negotiations have been ongoing. At least with a potential bid in mind.·1 päivä sittenMy simple opinion as an investor for several years is that a fair price of 70Nok minimum is worth considering. With a return of 7-8Nok/year per share, I see no reason to accept less for BW group. Could the Bay Du Nord contract be an explanation for this wait?
- ·16.2. · MuokattuOff-book trading last week was about 3 million shares. Of these 3 million, 600,000 were probably Cobas the buyer on Monday. This leaves 2.4 million from last week's trading, which we can speculate about who the buyer is. If we keep track of the numbers here, Cobas must make a new disclosure when they pass 20 %, if it is they who are accumulating. They were at 15.3 % on Monday. A new 4.7 % amounts to 8.7 million shares. This means, assuming that Cobas bought the 2.4 million shares last week that were not bought on Monday, that they have 6.3 million left before a disclosure must be made. As a matter of mathematical curiosity, I see from the disclosure report that Cobas bases its calculation on total issued shares, and does not take into account that BWO owns almost four million of its own shares. As I have understood the disclosure rules, the company's holding of its own shares will affect when the thresholds are reached. In that sense, in my assessment, Cobas reached the disclosure limit earlier than they reported. There are 181.2 million shares that the company does not own itself. The thresholds for disclosure must be based on this number. What I am stating here as a basis, means that Cobas must disclose when they pass 36.25 million shares. They owned 28.3 million shares on Monday, and PERHAPS bought 2.4 million shares from Tuesday to Friday last week. In that case, they now own 30.7 million shares, and then only need 5.5 million more before they must disclose again.·3 päivää sittenIt appears that the third largest owner, Salt Value, managed by Harald Espedal, but with Erling Haaland among others on the investor side, is among those who have sold down somewhat: "Espedal has chosen to sell down in DNO, BW Offshore and Aker BP over the past month. In total, it concerns share sales for around 150 million kroner." https://www.finansavisen.no/energi/2026/02/18/8329420/bunnfisker-ai-frykt-aksjer-selger-i-olje
- ·15.2.I'm sticking my neck out here, attempting to summarize some observations. These are just loose thoughts from someone who is not an expert, and I try to think in probabilities rather than definitive conclusions. First, a couple of obvious things: BW Group is a long-term industrial owner, and they don't have to sell. They have a functioning industrial platform, and BWO is one of the few pure-play FPSO companies that has survived the cycle since the construction boom around 2005–2014. This is no longer a market where it's easy to establish oneself, neither technically, commercially, nor financially. At the same time, The Carlyle Group is unlikely to pay an exorbitant price. They recently acquired Altera Infrastructure's FPSO portfolio, and the rationale will probably be to build a larger platform over time. For that to make sense, they must realistically be able to achieve a satisfactory IRR on equity, which naturally sets an upper limit for what they can pay. Then we have Cobas Asset Management, which has continued to be a buyer around the 50 kr level. They are not known for short-term trading but invest based on underlying value and asymmetry. The fact that they are still buying may indicate that they see a probability-weighted value that is higher than today's price, although this, of course, provides no guarantee of the outcome. I also don't believe they will sell the FPSO part separately and be left with Ideol and remaining small projects. I assume all or nothing, possibly a JV where only BWG and Carlyle remain. The latter could actually be a possibility. BWG and Carlyle redeem the minority shareholders and make an ownership distribution among themselves. BWG would then participate in a growth platform based on Carlyle's FPSOs, which they bought from Altera Infrastructure Group, and BWO's own FPSO. Standard PE thinking would then be to make several bolt-on acquisitions, based on the value of the equity and the use of this as currency for new acquisitions. Regarding Bay du Nord, in my view, this primarily appears as an option value as of today. The value only materializes if the project receives a final investment decision and BWO is actually awarded an FPSO contract. It therefore seems reasonable that the market only prices in a limited part of this potential upside now. I also believe it's important to distinguish between book value and economic value. The stand-alone value can realistically be below book equity, as the value in practice is determined by discounted future cash flows and residual value – not historically invested capital. At the same time, the replacement cost for new FPSOs is significantly higher today than when many of BWO's units were built. Increased construction costs, limited yard capacity, and long delivery times mean that existing operational units can have a strategic value that is not necessarily fully reflected in book figures or in today's share price. In my view, this provides some structural support in the long term, even if it doesn't automatically lift the equity value here and now. If no deal is reached, I would assume that the price will fall back somewhat, as today's level probably contains a certain M&A optionality. A pure stand-alone valuation could then be somewhat lower than today's price, perhaps in the low to mid-40s range, depending on how the market assesses contract length, debt, and future projects. With that as a backdrop, I try to think explicitly in probabilities. My rough assessment as of today is approximately: 35 % probability that no transaction occurs within 12 months 30 % probability of a bid around ~70 kr 25 % probability of a bid around ~85 kr 10 % probability of a more aggressive outcome around ~100 kr This gives a probability-weighted value in the high-60s range per share. This is, of course, uncertain, and small changes in probabilities lead to large swings, but with a price around 50 kr, this still implies a positive expected value as I see it. This is only a personal assessment based on publicly available information and an attempt to structure uncertainty in an orderly manner. I have no insight into any negotiations and can, of course, be wrong.·17.2.Agree high in the 60s. But the higher part of the interval is quite unlikely. Probably BWO should perhaps wait a few years for a potential sale. Because prices for new FPSOs are increasing. And probably the book values (and replacement values) will increase going forward.·17.2.I am not trying to hit one correct number, but to assess a spectrum of possible outcomes and their probability. The aggressive outcome is not a main scenario, but a possible tail outcome. At the same time, I can naturally overestimate the probability of this, and then the expected value will also be lower.
- ·13.2.With this, I wish to commend the writers on the BWO thread. I participate myself now and then (not so much on this thread, but I do read here, and learn). Many engaged and knowledgeable contributors here, with informative and serious comments. Kudos. I myself own a few thousand BWO shares, where the first ones were bought 21/9 2010. Since then, there have surely been hundreds of smaller buy and sell transactions to the delight of Netfonds, then Nordnet. Nevertheless, I have never gone in-depth into this favorite as many of you on the thread have done. Btw, the 1000 shares in 2010 cost me NOK 9849,- according to the Netfonds history :-)
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Oslo Børs
Määrä
Osto
500
Myynti
Määrä
1 000
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | - | - | ||
| 2 | - | - | ||
| 462 | - | - | ||
| 740 | - | - | ||
| 136 | - | - |
Ylin
52,9VWAP
Alin
50,7VaihtoMäärä
9,9 190 421
VWAP
Ylin
52,9Alin
50,7VaihtoMäärä
9,9 190 421
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt