2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
1 päivä sitten
‧56 min
Tarjoustasot
Määrä
Osto
100
Myynti
Määrä
97
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - | - |
Ylin
-VWAP
Alin
-Vaihto ()
VWAP
Ylin
-Alin
-Vaihto ()
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 19.5. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 12.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 11.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 7.8.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 20.5.2025 | ||
2024 Q4 -tulosraportti 20.2.2025 |
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
Kirjaudu
11 t sitten11 t sittenQ4 earnings call Overall business performance and demand environment 2025 described as an “excellent” year with execution ahead of internal targets and capacity plans. Nebius positions itself as a leading, highly reliable AI cloud compute provider despite being only ~1.5 years from launch. Demand for AI compute is characterized as structurally constrained: capacity was sold out in Q3 and Q4 2025 and is already sold out for 2026. Average contract duration for new cloud customers increased by 50%, and GPU pricing remained firm even on prior generations, counter to broader industry expectations. Both AI-native startups and enterprises are rapidly scaling AI usage, with some startups moving from hundreds of GPUs to tens of thousands. Management views current AI adoption as the early stage of a major industrial/technological shift, underpinning long-term demand. Capacity expansion and infrastructure plans Capacity is a core growth pillar alongside product. Nebius announced nine new data centers globally, with a mix of owned builds and colocation. Power secured already exceeds 2 gigawatts as of February 2026; target for 2026 raised to more than 3 gigawatts of contracted power. Company expects to have 800 megawatts to 1 gigawatt of that power converted into available data center capacity by year-end 2026. Strategy is to maintain a portfolio of sites to avoid dependence on any single location and to allow workload flexibility across regions. Owned (“self-developed”) facilities are preferred for better total cost of ownership, execution control, and technical optimization, with leases used selectively to bridge gaps during rapid growth. Financial results and profitability Q4 2025 group revenue: $228 million, up 547% year-over-year and 56% quarter-over-quarter. Annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) for the core business reached $1.2 billion at December, exceeding the high end of prior guidance. Core AI cloud business revenue grew 830% year-over-year and 63% quarter-over-quarter, driven by high utilization and strong pricing. Group adjusted EBITDA turned positive in Q4; core AI cloud adjusted EBITDA margin expanded from 19% in Q3 to 24% in Q4. Management emphasizes operating leverage and spending discipline as capacity scales. Guidance and key targets for 2026 and beyond Nebius reiterates its target for 2026 annualized run-rate revenue of $7–9 billion. 2026 revenue guidance: $3.0–3.4 billion, reflecting a ramp as new capacity comes online mainly in the second half of the year. Group adjusted EBITDA margin guidance for 2026 is ~40%; EBIT expected to remain negative due to heavy investment in capacity, GPUs, and R&D. Medium-term EBIT margin target remains 20–30%, with potential upside, once the current investment phase moderates and large contracts fully ramp. Depreciation schedule for equipment will be lengthened from four to five years starting Q1 2026, reflecting longer-lived utilization and market practice. Capital expenditure and financing strategy 2026 CapEx plan: $16–20 billion, aimed at supporting capacity needs for 2027 and beyond, not just 2026. CapEx split roughly into: Less than 10% for securing power. About 20% for building data centers. The remainder for deploying GPUs and related hardware. About 60% (or more) of 2026 CapEx is expected to be funded from existing cash, operating cash flows, and upfront payments from long-term agreements. Nebius currently has ~$3 billion in cash, no corporate-level debt, and no asset-backed financing; management intentionally preserved a “clean” balance sheet up to now. Going forward, Nebius plans to incorporate debt into its capital structure (corporate debt and asset-backed financing) to reach a more “optimal” structure while keeping a disciplined balance sheet. The at-the-market (ATM) equity program remains unused so far and is viewed as an opportunistic tool rather than a primary source of funding. Equity stakes in ClickHouse and AV Wright are cited as non-core holdings that could be monetized in the future to support further growth.11 t sitten11 t sittenCustomer base, demand signals, and vertical strategy Two key AI cloud customer segments: AI startups (“AI-native”) and enterprises. Many AI-native startups are maturing into substantial businesses with real revenue and scaling quickly in GPU demand. Enterprises are progressively embedding AI into critical business processes, driving larger and longer-duration contracts. Contract durations are increasing (average duration for new customers rose 50% in 2025), and the number of GPUs per contract is growing. Nebius is prioritizing verticals where it sees strong AI workloads: healthcare and life sciences, media and entertainment, physical AI, and retail. Management reports a robust pipeline, expecting Q1 2026 pipeline creation to exceed $4 billion, with deal terms trending longer and average selling prices up >50% in Q4 vs. Q3. Large strategic contracts: Microsoft and Meta Meta: All contracted capacity for Meta was fully delivered by early February 2026. Nebius is now in a servicing phase for Meta. Financially, Nebius expects to recognize 12 months of revenue for Meta’s first tranche and about 11 months for the second tranche in 2026. Microsoft: First tranche of capacity for Microsoft’s New Jersey data center was delivered on time in November 2025. Remaining tranches are scheduled throughout 2026, with more than half expected in the second half of the year. Microsoft is expected to contribute at full annual run rate in 2027, once all capacity tranches are deployed. Both contracts are expected to support Nebius’s medium-term EBIT margin goals as they ramp. Data center build, supply chain, and equipment availability Nebius acknowledges industry-wide challenges in data center equipment, memory, and storage. Mitigation strategies include: Maintaining multiple concurrent data center projects across geographies. Contracting long-lead items in advance to secure capacity beyond 2026. Leveraging its full-stack cloud model to shift workloads among sites as needed. For Microsoft and Meta, necessary components were secured in 2025 for the full contracted scope, before subsequent market price increases. Management reiterates confidence in hitting deployment goals and meeting guidance despite industry shortages. ARR vs. revenue and metric focus Management emphasizes ARR as the key performance metric in a hypergrowth phase. Q4 2025 ARR of $1.2 billion exceeded guidance, while Q4 revenue landed mid-guidance. The gap between ARR and revenue is attributed to the timing of capacity deployment: ARR reflects a run rate as of period end, whereas revenue reflects only the capacity actually online during the period. For 2026, much capacity comes online later in the year, so ARR by year-end will be higher than full-year recognized revenue. Nebius states that its 2026 ARR target of $7–9 billion is not dependent on signing additional new “mega deals” with hyperscalers; it is based on planned capacity, existing pipeline, and current go-to-market motion. Software stack, products, and monetization All AI cloud customers use Nebius’s AI cloud software stack by design, yielding a 100% software attach rate to compute. Key software and platform elements highlighted: Token Factory: new product enabling per-token pricing and other consumption-based models; designed to broaden enterprise adoption. Aether releases: enhancements to the platform; details not expanded in the call but framed as important for opening enterprise TAM. Embedded storage solutions tailored for verticals like physical AI, media & entertainment, and healthcare & life sciences. Nebius is still in early stages of direct software monetization; the primary impact today is higher effective pricing per GPU-hour and platform stickiness. Future monetization models under consideration include more granular, consumption-based pricing on top of compute.11 t sitten11 t sittenTavily acquisition and M&A strategy Tavily is described as an “agentic search” company connecting AI agents to the web; it brings agentic search capabilities and a developer community (management references ~700,000 developers on the platform earlier in the call). Tavily already serves many Fortune 500 customers and has strong adoption among developers. Strategic rationale: Deepens functionality for AI developers building applications and agents on Nebius’s platform. Increases developer engagement, stickiness, and lifetime value, reinforcing Nebius’s positioning as a full-stack AI cloud. Nebius will continue evaluating acquisitions that: Enhance customer engagement. Add distinctive capabilities aligned with AI developer needs. Fit culturally and strategically with the company’s platform vision. M&A is framed as complementary to heavy organic investment in product; not everything will be built in-house, given the breadth of the opportunity. Capital allocation priorities and build-vs-buy Two main capital allocation dimensions: Scale: investing in power, data centers, and GPUs to expand capacity. Product: investing in platform and software, both organically (internal R&D) and via acquisitions. Large majority of current capital is going toward infrastructure scale to meet demand and position for 2027+. Selected acquisitions like Tavily are used to accelerate product roadmap, bring in talent, and enhance the developer platform. Management underscores that the AI opportunity is large enough to justify both heavy capacity build-out and targeted M&A, with emphasis on disciplined balance-sheet management. Management and investor relations updates Neil Doshi, current VP of Investor Relations, will transition into a new strategy role at Nebius after this call. Gili Ostolovich is joining as the new VP of Investor Relations, bringing prior research and strategic finance experience from Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Minda.com. Future earnings processes and calls will be led by Gili.
17 t sitten17 t sittenMassive earnings result! Unfortunately, like many stocks this quarter, it seems like we are following general macro sentiment. When that clears, this will take off.
18 t sitten18 t sittenNebius Group's revenue of $227.7 million missed $247 million expectations, while $2 billion quarterly capex drove temporary profit concerns. ARR reached $1.25 billion, with a $7 billion to $9 billion 2026 ARR target reaffirmed and over half contracted. NBIS exited 2025 with 170 megawatts of active power and over 2 gigawatts contracted, targeting 1 gigawatt connected in 2026. Capital expenditures rose to $5 billion in 2025, with 80% allocated to GPUs deployed against contracted or visible demand. Microsoft and Meta contracts totaling over $20 billion enhance NBIS financing flexibility and lower the cost of capital structurally. Nebius is not falling because of a lack of demand; it is falling in the short term because of the speed at which the business is executing against very high expectations. The infrastructure is being built, the power is being secured, and the contracts are in place. To conclude, I strongly believe if NBIS management can successfully execute converting the contracted infrastructure to revenue-producing infrastructure on a timely basis, the volatility is a long-term compounding opportunity. If the business doesn’t execute on a timely basis, the valuation will adjust before the business does.
·18 t sittenLooks very promising! And I feel this report seemed very good. They were within their own guidance. Yes, they miss their analysts' revenue estimates, but as in the last quarter, they are sold out. So I rather think it's the analysts' estimates that aren't quite keeping up here.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
1 päivä sitten
‧56 min
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
Kirjaudu
- 11 t sitten11 t sittenQ4 earnings call Overall business performance and demand environment 2025 described as an “excellent” year with execution ahead of internal targets and capacity plans. Nebius positions itself as a leading, highly reliable AI cloud compute provider despite being only ~1.5 years from launch. Demand for AI compute is characterized as structurally constrained: capacity was sold out in Q3 and Q4 2025 and is already sold out for 2026. Average contract duration for new cloud customers increased by 50%, and GPU pricing remained firm even on prior generations, counter to broader industry expectations. Both AI-native startups and enterprises are rapidly scaling AI usage, with some startups moving from hundreds of GPUs to tens of thousands. Management views current AI adoption as the early stage of a major industrial/technological shift, underpinning long-term demand. Capacity expansion and infrastructure plans Capacity is a core growth pillar alongside product. Nebius announced nine new data centers globally, with a mix of owned builds and colocation. Power secured already exceeds 2 gigawatts as of February 2026; target for 2026 raised to more than 3 gigawatts of contracted power. Company expects to have 800 megawatts to 1 gigawatt of that power converted into available data center capacity by year-end 2026. Strategy is to maintain a portfolio of sites to avoid dependence on any single location and to allow workload flexibility across regions. Owned (“self-developed”) facilities are preferred for better total cost of ownership, execution control, and technical optimization, with leases used selectively to bridge gaps during rapid growth. Financial results and profitability Q4 2025 group revenue: $228 million, up 547% year-over-year and 56% quarter-over-quarter. Annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) for the core business reached $1.2 billion at December, exceeding the high end of prior guidance. Core AI cloud business revenue grew 830% year-over-year and 63% quarter-over-quarter, driven by high utilization and strong pricing. Group adjusted EBITDA turned positive in Q4; core AI cloud adjusted EBITDA margin expanded from 19% in Q3 to 24% in Q4. Management emphasizes operating leverage and spending discipline as capacity scales. Guidance and key targets for 2026 and beyond Nebius reiterates its target for 2026 annualized run-rate revenue of $7–9 billion. 2026 revenue guidance: $3.0–3.4 billion, reflecting a ramp as new capacity comes online mainly in the second half of the year. Group adjusted EBITDA margin guidance for 2026 is ~40%; EBIT expected to remain negative due to heavy investment in capacity, GPUs, and R&D. Medium-term EBIT margin target remains 20–30%, with potential upside, once the current investment phase moderates and large contracts fully ramp. Depreciation schedule for equipment will be lengthened from four to five years starting Q1 2026, reflecting longer-lived utilization and market practice. Capital expenditure and financing strategy 2026 CapEx plan: $16–20 billion, aimed at supporting capacity needs for 2027 and beyond, not just 2026. CapEx split roughly into: Less than 10% for securing power. About 20% for building data centers. The remainder for deploying GPUs and related hardware. About 60% (or more) of 2026 CapEx is expected to be funded from existing cash, operating cash flows, and upfront payments from long-term agreements. Nebius currently has ~$3 billion in cash, no corporate-level debt, and no asset-backed financing; management intentionally preserved a “clean” balance sheet up to now. Going forward, Nebius plans to incorporate debt into its capital structure (corporate debt and asset-backed financing) to reach a more “optimal” structure while keeping a disciplined balance sheet. The at-the-market (ATM) equity program remains unused so far and is viewed as an opportunistic tool rather than a primary source of funding. Equity stakes in ClickHouse and AV Wright are cited as non-core holdings that could be monetized in the future to support further growth.11 t sitten11 t sittenCustomer base, demand signals, and vertical strategy Two key AI cloud customer segments: AI startups (“AI-native”) and enterprises. Many AI-native startups are maturing into substantial businesses with real revenue and scaling quickly in GPU demand. Enterprises are progressively embedding AI into critical business processes, driving larger and longer-duration contracts. Contract durations are increasing (average duration for new customers rose 50% in 2025), and the number of GPUs per contract is growing. Nebius is prioritizing verticals where it sees strong AI workloads: healthcare and life sciences, media and entertainment, physical AI, and retail. Management reports a robust pipeline, expecting Q1 2026 pipeline creation to exceed $4 billion, with deal terms trending longer and average selling prices up >50% in Q4 vs. Q3. Large strategic contracts: Microsoft and Meta Meta: All contracted capacity for Meta was fully delivered by early February 2026. Nebius is now in a servicing phase for Meta. Financially, Nebius expects to recognize 12 months of revenue for Meta’s first tranche and about 11 months for the second tranche in 2026. Microsoft: First tranche of capacity for Microsoft’s New Jersey data center was delivered on time in November 2025. Remaining tranches are scheduled throughout 2026, with more than half expected in the second half of the year. Microsoft is expected to contribute at full annual run rate in 2027, once all capacity tranches are deployed. Both contracts are expected to support Nebius’s medium-term EBIT margin goals as they ramp. Data center build, supply chain, and equipment availability Nebius acknowledges industry-wide challenges in data center equipment, memory, and storage. Mitigation strategies include: Maintaining multiple concurrent data center projects across geographies. Contracting long-lead items in advance to secure capacity beyond 2026. Leveraging its full-stack cloud model to shift workloads among sites as needed. For Microsoft and Meta, necessary components were secured in 2025 for the full contracted scope, before subsequent market price increases. Management reiterates confidence in hitting deployment goals and meeting guidance despite industry shortages. ARR vs. revenue and metric focus Management emphasizes ARR as the key performance metric in a hypergrowth phase. Q4 2025 ARR of $1.2 billion exceeded guidance, while Q4 revenue landed mid-guidance. The gap between ARR and revenue is attributed to the timing of capacity deployment: ARR reflects a run rate as of period end, whereas revenue reflects only the capacity actually online during the period. For 2026, much capacity comes online later in the year, so ARR by year-end will be higher than full-year recognized revenue. Nebius states that its 2026 ARR target of $7–9 billion is not dependent on signing additional new “mega deals” with hyperscalers; it is based on planned capacity, existing pipeline, and current go-to-market motion. Software stack, products, and monetization All AI cloud customers use Nebius’s AI cloud software stack by design, yielding a 100% software attach rate to compute. Key software and platform elements highlighted: Token Factory: new product enabling per-token pricing and other consumption-based models; designed to broaden enterprise adoption. Aether releases: enhancements to the platform; details not expanded in the call but framed as important for opening enterprise TAM. Embedded storage solutions tailored for verticals like physical AI, media & entertainment, and healthcare & life sciences. Nebius is still in early stages of direct software monetization; the primary impact today is higher effective pricing per GPU-hour and platform stickiness. Future monetization models under consideration include more granular, consumption-based pricing on top of compute.11 t sitten11 t sittenTavily acquisition and M&A strategy Tavily is described as an “agentic search” company connecting AI agents to the web; it brings agentic search capabilities and a developer community (management references ~700,000 developers on the platform earlier in the call). Tavily already serves many Fortune 500 customers and has strong adoption among developers. Strategic rationale: Deepens functionality for AI developers building applications and agents on Nebius’s platform. Increases developer engagement, stickiness, and lifetime value, reinforcing Nebius’s positioning as a full-stack AI cloud. Nebius will continue evaluating acquisitions that: Enhance customer engagement. Add distinctive capabilities aligned with AI developer needs. Fit culturally and strategically with the company’s platform vision. M&A is framed as complementary to heavy organic investment in product; not everything will be built in-house, given the breadth of the opportunity. Capital allocation priorities and build-vs-buy Two main capital allocation dimensions: Scale: investing in power, data centers, and GPUs to expand capacity. Product: investing in platform and software, both organically (internal R&D) and via acquisitions. Large majority of current capital is going toward infrastructure scale to meet demand and position for 2027+. Selected acquisitions like Tavily are used to accelerate product roadmap, bring in talent, and enhance the developer platform. Management underscores that the AI opportunity is large enough to justify both heavy capacity build-out and targeted M&A, with emphasis on disciplined balance-sheet management. Management and investor relations updates Neil Doshi, current VP of Investor Relations, will transition into a new strategy role at Nebius after this call. Gili Ostolovich is joining as the new VP of Investor Relations, bringing prior research and strategic finance experience from Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Minda.com. Future earnings processes and calls will be led by Gili.
- 17 t sitten17 t sittenMassive earnings result! Unfortunately, like many stocks this quarter, it seems like we are following general macro sentiment. When that clears, this will take off.
- 18 t sitten18 t sittenNebius Group's revenue of $227.7 million missed $247 million expectations, while $2 billion quarterly capex drove temporary profit concerns. ARR reached $1.25 billion, with a $7 billion to $9 billion 2026 ARR target reaffirmed and over half contracted. NBIS exited 2025 with 170 megawatts of active power and over 2 gigawatts contracted, targeting 1 gigawatt connected in 2026. Capital expenditures rose to $5 billion in 2025, with 80% allocated to GPUs deployed against contracted or visible demand. Microsoft and Meta contracts totaling over $20 billion enhance NBIS financing flexibility and lower the cost of capital structurally. Nebius is not falling because of a lack of demand; it is falling in the short term because of the speed at which the business is executing against very high expectations. The infrastructure is being built, the power is being secured, and the contracts are in place. To conclude, I strongly believe if NBIS management can successfully execute converting the contracted infrastructure to revenue-producing infrastructure on a timely basis, the volatility is a long-term compounding opportunity. If the business doesn’t execute on a timely basis, the valuation will adjust before the business does.·18 t sittenLooks very promising! And I feel this report seemed very good. They were within their own guidance. Yes, they miss their analysts' revenue estimates, but as in the last quarter, they are sold out. So I rather think it's the analysts' estimates that aren't quite keeping up here.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Määrä
Osto
100
Myynti
Määrä
97
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - | - |
Ylin
-VWAP
Alin
-Vaihto ()
VWAP
Ylin
-Alin
-Vaihto ()
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 19.5. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 12.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 11.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 7.8.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 20.5.2025 | ||
2024 Q4 -tulosraportti 20.2.2025 |
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
1 päivä sitten
‧56 min
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 19.5. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 12.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 11.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 7.8.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 20.5.2025 | ||
2024 Q4 -tulosraportti 20.2.2025 |
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
Kirjaudu
- 11 t sitten11 t sittenQ4 earnings call Overall business performance and demand environment 2025 described as an “excellent” year with execution ahead of internal targets and capacity plans. Nebius positions itself as a leading, highly reliable AI cloud compute provider despite being only ~1.5 years from launch. Demand for AI compute is characterized as structurally constrained: capacity was sold out in Q3 and Q4 2025 and is already sold out for 2026. Average contract duration for new cloud customers increased by 50%, and GPU pricing remained firm even on prior generations, counter to broader industry expectations. Both AI-native startups and enterprises are rapidly scaling AI usage, with some startups moving from hundreds of GPUs to tens of thousands. Management views current AI adoption as the early stage of a major industrial/technological shift, underpinning long-term demand. Capacity expansion and infrastructure plans Capacity is a core growth pillar alongside product. Nebius announced nine new data centers globally, with a mix of owned builds and colocation. Power secured already exceeds 2 gigawatts as of February 2026; target for 2026 raised to more than 3 gigawatts of contracted power. Company expects to have 800 megawatts to 1 gigawatt of that power converted into available data center capacity by year-end 2026. Strategy is to maintain a portfolio of sites to avoid dependence on any single location and to allow workload flexibility across regions. Owned (“self-developed”) facilities are preferred for better total cost of ownership, execution control, and technical optimization, with leases used selectively to bridge gaps during rapid growth. Financial results and profitability Q4 2025 group revenue: $228 million, up 547% year-over-year and 56% quarter-over-quarter. Annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) for the core business reached $1.2 billion at December, exceeding the high end of prior guidance. Core AI cloud business revenue grew 830% year-over-year and 63% quarter-over-quarter, driven by high utilization and strong pricing. Group adjusted EBITDA turned positive in Q4; core AI cloud adjusted EBITDA margin expanded from 19% in Q3 to 24% in Q4. Management emphasizes operating leverage and spending discipline as capacity scales. Guidance and key targets for 2026 and beyond Nebius reiterates its target for 2026 annualized run-rate revenue of $7–9 billion. 2026 revenue guidance: $3.0–3.4 billion, reflecting a ramp as new capacity comes online mainly in the second half of the year. Group adjusted EBITDA margin guidance for 2026 is ~40%; EBIT expected to remain negative due to heavy investment in capacity, GPUs, and R&D. Medium-term EBIT margin target remains 20–30%, with potential upside, once the current investment phase moderates and large contracts fully ramp. Depreciation schedule for equipment will be lengthened from four to five years starting Q1 2026, reflecting longer-lived utilization and market practice. Capital expenditure and financing strategy 2026 CapEx plan: $16–20 billion, aimed at supporting capacity needs for 2027 and beyond, not just 2026. CapEx split roughly into: Less than 10% for securing power. About 20% for building data centers. The remainder for deploying GPUs and related hardware. About 60% (or more) of 2026 CapEx is expected to be funded from existing cash, operating cash flows, and upfront payments from long-term agreements. Nebius currently has ~$3 billion in cash, no corporate-level debt, and no asset-backed financing; management intentionally preserved a “clean” balance sheet up to now. Going forward, Nebius plans to incorporate debt into its capital structure (corporate debt and asset-backed financing) to reach a more “optimal” structure while keeping a disciplined balance sheet. The at-the-market (ATM) equity program remains unused so far and is viewed as an opportunistic tool rather than a primary source of funding. Equity stakes in ClickHouse and AV Wright are cited as non-core holdings that could be monetized in the future to support further growth.11 t sitten11 t sittenCustomer base, demand signals, and vertical strategy Two key AI cloud customer segments: AI startups (“AI-native”) and enterprises. Many AI-native startups are maturing into substantial businesses with real revenue and scaling quickly in GPU demand. Enterprises are progressively embedding AI into critical business processes, driving larger and longer-duration contracts. Contract durations are increasing (average duration for new customers rose 50% in 2025), and the number of GPUs per contract is growing. Nebius is prioritizing verticals where it sees strong AI workloads: healthcare and life sciences, media and entertainment, physical AI, and retail. Management reports a robust pipeline, expecting Q1 2026 pipeline creation to exceed $4 billion, with deal terms trending longer and average selling prices up >50% in Q4 vs. Q3. Large strategic contracts: Microsoft and Meta Meta: All contracted capacity for Meta was fully delivered by early February 2026. Nebius is now in a servicing phase for Meta. Financially, Nebius expects to recognize 12 months of revenue for Meta’s first tranche and about 11 months for the second tranche in 2026. Microsoft: First tranche of capacity for Microsoft’s New Jersey data center was delivered on time in November 2025. Remaining tranches are scheduled throughout 2026, with more than half expected in the second half of the year. Microsoft is expected to contribute at full annual run rate in 2027, once all capacity tranches are deployed. Both contracts are expected to support Nebius’s medium-term EBIT margin goals as they ramp. Data center build, supply chain, and equipment availability Nebius acknowledges industry-wide challenges in data center equipment, memory, and storage. Mitigation strategies include: Maintaining multiple concurrent data center projects across geographies. Contracting long-lead items in advance to secure capacity beyond 2026. Leveraging its full-stack cloud model to shift workloads among sites as needed. For Microsoft and Meta, necessary components were secured in 2025 for the full contracted scope, before subsequent market price increases. Management reiterates confidence in hitting deployment goals and meeting guidance despite industry shortages. ARR vs. revenue and metric focus Management emphasizes ARR as the key performance metric in a hypergrowth phase. Q4 2025 ARR of $1.2 billion exceeded guidance, while Q4 revenue landed mid-guidance. The gap between ARR and revenue is attributed to the timing of capacity deployment: ARR reflects a run rate as of period end, whereas revenue reflects only the capacity actually online during the period. For 2026, much capacity comes online later in the year, so ARR by year-end will be higher than full-year recognized revenue. Nebius states that its 2026 ARR target of $7–9 billion is not dependent on signing additional new “mega deals” with hyperscalers; it is based on planned capacity, existing pipeline, and current go-to-market motion. Software stack, products, and monetization All AI cloud customers use Nebius’s AI cloud software stack by design, yielding a 100% software attach rate to compute. Key software and platform elements highlighted: Token Factory: new product enabling per-token pricing and other consumption-based models; designed to broaden enterprise adoption. Aether releases: enhancements to the platform; details not expanded in the call but framed as important for opening enterprise TAM. Embedded storage solutions tailored for verticals like physical AI, media & entertainment, and healthcare & life sciences. Nebius is still in early stages of direct software monetization; the primary impact today is higher effective pricing per GPU-hour and platform stickiness. Future monetization models under consideration include more granular, consumption-based pricing on top of compute.11 t sitten11 t sittenTavily acquisition and M&A strategy Tavily is described as an “agentic search” company connecting AI agents to the web; it brings agentic search capabilities and a developer community (management references ~700,000 developers on the platform earlier in the call). Tavily already serves many Fortune 500 customers and has strong adoption among developers. Strategic rationale: Deepens functionality for AI developers building applications and agents on Nebius’s platform. Increases developer engagement, stickiness, and lifetime value, reinforcing Nebius’s positioning as a full-stack AI cloud. Nebius will continue evaluating acquisitions that: Enhance customer engagement. Add distinctive capabilities aligned with AI developer needs. Fit culturally and strategically with the company’s platform vision. M&A is framed as complementary to heavy organic investment in product; not everything will be built in-house, given the breadth of the opportunity. Capital allocation priorities and build-vs-buy Two main capital allocation dimensions: Scale: investing in power, data centers, and GPUs to expand capacity. Product: investing in platform and software, both organically (internal R&D) and via acquisitions. Large majority of current capital is going toward infrastructure scale to meet demand and position for 2027+. Selected acquisitions like Tavily are used to accelerate product roadmap, bring in talent, and enhance the developer platform. Management underscores that the AI opportunity is large enough to justify both heavy capacity build-out and targeted M&A, with emphasis on disciplined balance-sheet management. Management and investor relations updates Neil Doshi, current VP of Investor Relations, will transition into a new strategy role at Nebius after this call. Gili Ostolovich is joining as the new VP of Investor Relations, bringing prior research and strategic finance experience from Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Minda.com. Future earnings processes and calls will be led by Gili.
- 17 t sitten17 t sittenMassive earnings result! Unfortunately, like many stocks this quarter, it seems like we are following general macro sentiment. When that clears, this will take off.
- 18 t sitten18 t sittenNebius Group's revenue of $227.7 million missed $247 million expectations, while $2 billion quarterly capex drove temporary profit concerns. ARR reached $1.25 billion, with a $7 billion to $9 billion 2026 ARR target reaffirmed and over half contracted. NBIS exited 2025 with 170 megawatts of active power and over 2 gigawatts contracted, targeting 1 gigawatt connected in 2026. Capital expenditures rose to $5 billion in 2025, with 80% allocated to GPUs deployed against contracted or visible demand. Microsoft and Meta contracts totaling over $20 billion enhance NBIS financing flexibility and lower the cost of capital structurally. Nebius is not falling because of a lack of demand; it is falling in the short term because of the speed at which the business is executing against very high expectations. The infrastructure is being built, the power is being secured, and the contracts are in place. To conclude, I strongly believe if NBIS management can successfully execute converting the contracted infrastructure to revenue-producing infrastructure on a timely basis, the volatility is a long-term compounding opportunity. If the business doesn’t execute on a timely basis, the valuation will adjust before the business does.·18 t sittenLooks very promising! And I feel this report seemed very good. They were within their own guidance. Yes, they miss their analysts' revenue estimates, but as in the last quarter, they are sold out. So I rather think it's the analysts' estimates that aren't quite keeping up here.
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