2026 Q1 -tulosraportti
45 päivää sitten
‧2 t 17 min
Tarjoustasot
Määrä
Osto
-
Myynti
Määrä
-
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - | - |
Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 30.7. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
Vuosittainen yhtiökokous 2026 8.6. | ||
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 5.5. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 5.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 30.10.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 31.7.2025 |
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
·4 t sitten · MuokattuWhen looking at market data, macroeconomics, and the general market cycle, most professional estimates suggest that we will be heading towards the end of Q4 2026 or the beginning of 2027 before we truly see a new, sustained upward movement. There are three primary reasons why the market is likely to consolidate at the current price level here over the summer and autumn of 2026, before the next major advance sets in: 1. Macroeconomics and the Central Bank (Fed) Right now in June 2026, it is the interest rate policy of the American central bank (Fed) that holds the market in an iron grip. Fed maintains a relatively tight and hawkish stance with interest rates around 3.50%–3.75%. As long as liquidity is tight, large institutional investors remain somewhat on the sidelines, which puts a lid on Bitcoin (and thus also MSTR). When will it turn? Many macro analysts expect inflation to further decline towards the end of the year, which may force the central bank into the first real interest rate cuts. This will loosen liquidity and historically send capital directly into risk assets. 2. The Apathy Phase in the 4-year Cycle The market follows classic 4-year patterns. After the massive euphoria and violent movements in 2024/2025, the market is currently in what is called the "apathy phase". Google searches for Bitcoin are at an all-time low, and retail investors have lost patience. Professional players (such as Anthony Scaramucci from SkyBridge) point out that precisely this widespread indifference and thin trading volumes historically characterize the transition towards a solid market bottom, after which a smaller increase in demand can significantly move prices. 3. MSTR's Specific Dynamics MicroStrategy continues to trade at a premium compared to its real Bitcoin holdings. The company is extremely well-capitalized and continues to vacuum the market for Bitcoin at the bottom (they have recently bought further in June 2026 during the price drop). MSTR has built a capital structure that prevents them from getting into trouble despite volatility, but the next explosive advance in the stock requires Bitcoin to break out of its current accumulation zone ($59,000–$64,000). Conclusion on the Timeline If we are to structure the expectations for your thesis, the market operates based on two primary scenarios: Short term (Summer/Autumn 2026): Sideways movement and minor ups and downs. The options market currently shows very wide and uncertain spreads for the rest of the summer, reflecting that the market is "waiting and seeing" macro figures. Beginning of advance (End of 2026 / Beginning of 2027): Here, the real next wave is expected when structural headwinds (interest rates and AI capital absorption) ease, and the cycle re-establishes its upward momentum. Several long-term forecasts point to 2027 as the year when Bitcoin can truly attempt to break new ground.
1 t sitten1 t sittenGood comments 👍. 1. I would agree the FED and dollar are relatively stronger than for a long time, the policy is tight, and they’ll like to keep it tight as long as possible. How all things play out, AI, inflation, federal debt management, etc, that will dictate how fast the policy loosens. 2. No more 4-year cycle narratives, please 😅. The cycles are determined by how far we are from the power law average, not by only fiat price. Fiat is the stuff they print out of thin air, so that alone cannot be a reliable metric. 3. Yeah, MSTR is extremely solid despite the downturn lasting possibly longer.
·8 t sittenLet's take the bankruptcy talk around Strategy/MSTR a bit more soberly. Yes, MSTR and STRC are under pressure. Yes, STRC trades far below $100. Yes, the market has started to question the financing, dividend obligations, and mNAV. That's fair. But it's a long way from "the funding channel is under pressure" to "the company goes bankrupt". For Strategy to genuinely be in a bankruptcy-threatening situation, several negative things must happen simultaneously and over a longer period. First scenario: Bitcoin falls sharply and remains low for several years. Not just a dip to 55-60k. Not just a normal drawdown. We are talking about an environment where BTC remains so low that the entire balance sheet comes under pressure, while the market loses faith that BTC will recover. This is the most important variable. Strategy is ultimately a huge bet on Bitcoin. If Bitcoin goes significantly higher over 5-10 years, dividend obligations become relatively smaller. If, on the other hand, Bitcoin stagnates or falls for many years, the case becomes weaker. Second scenario: mNAV falls below 1 and stays there permanently. This is an important point. If mNAV is above 1, Strategy can in principle raise capital above the underlying BTC value and use the capital to buy more BTC. This can be accretive for shareholders if BTC per share increases. If, on the other hand, mNAV remains below 1 for a long time, it becomes less attractive to issue common shares because it can result in negative BTC Yield. But again: the problem is not if mNAV temporarily goes below 1. The problem is if mNAV remains permanently low while BTC does not rise. Third scenario: STRC and the other preferred products become so expensive that dividend obligations grow faster than the value of the BTC holdings. This is the real bear-case. If STRC trades far below par, the market demands a higher yield. This can make new financing more expensive. But it does not automatically mean that Strategy cannot pay. It means that the funding channel is less attractive. That's a difference. Fourth scenario: Capital markets close. If Strategy cannot issue common shares, cannot issue preferreds, cannot refinance debt, and at the same time does not want to sell BTC, then liquidity naturally becomes more pressured. But again, this requires a very bad market on several fronts simultaneously. Fifth scenario: They refuse to use the flexibility in the model. Many talk as if Strategy only has two options: issue shares or go bankrupt. That's not true. They can hold back on new purchases. They can sell small amounts of BTC. They can use cash. They can let certain preferred dividends accumulate if they choose not to declare/pay them out, even though that would, of course, damage confidence. They can change the pace of capital allocation. These are not pleasant choices, but it is not automatically bankruptcy. It is also important to understand that a BTC sale is not necessarily catastrophic. It depends on the size and purpose. If Strategy sells 32 BTC out of over 800,000 BTC, it changes nothing fundamentally. It is a signal, yes, and the market can react negatively. But economically it is almost nothing. If they sell a smaller portion of the holdings to avoid destructive dilution, it can actually be rational. The decisive factor is not whether they sell zero BTC forever. The decisive factor is whether they over time increase the value per share and BTC exposure per share. Therefore, I think the bankruptcy talk is far too unnuanced. A bankruptcy case typically requires something like: - Bitcoin falls sharply and remains low for several years. - mNAV falls below 1 and remains low. - The STRC/preferred market remains closed or extremely expensive. - Strategy cannot raise new capital on reasonable terms. - The cash reserve is used up. - The software business cannot contribute enough. - BTC sales become so large that the market loses all confidence. - Refinancing of debt becomes impossible. It is not impossible. But it is a very specific stress scenario. It is not the same as STRC falling to 85, or MSTR falling 25 % in a month. Right now, I see more of a liquidity and confidence problem than a bankruptcy problem. Strategy still owns the world's largest corporate holding of Bitcoin. They still have access to several funding sources. They still have a software business. They still have the ability to adjust the pace of purchases, issuances, and capital allocation. And most importantly: if Bitcoin is significantly higher in 3-5 years, the whole calculation looks different. I am not saying that the risk is zero. On the contrary. MSTR is an extremely volatile stock with a complex capital structure. But calling it bankruptcy every time mNAV compresses or STRC trades below par is, in my opinion, a misunderstanding of what it actually takes for a company with over 800,000 BTC to genuinely become insolvent.
6 t sitten6 t sittenToo long, didn't read, never selling. Keep in mind Saylor is not born yesterday, has done more simulations of scenarios you can think of, and if he goes indeed busted, we will buy btc so cheap that all MSTR losses will be easily recovered.
9 t sitten · Muokattu9 t sitten · MuokattuDXY is in 1 year highs. Dollar stregth is poison for silver, gold and btc. But dollar strength usually weakens the economy and trough that it will weaken the dollar. And eventually strengthen Bitcoin, but the time span is the big question. Bitcoin is global thing and every fiat currency faces these same problems eventually which i believe is very bullish for btc. Short term we could have real downside but this situation can also flip very fast. Fiat currency strength is just an short term illusion. And it was never sustainable and never will be. Bitcoin adaption is also just in the beginning.
·3 t sitten · MuokattuIt's true regarding risk assets generally, but people also tend to overinterpret all data all the time. In 2024 and early 2025 we reached over 100 k, and the dollar exchange rate was 7.27 kr. at the peak. The dollar exchange rate has only been higher once. At the same time, interest rates were very high. I just believe that we have had a healthy correction, and we need a boring market so all the speculators can be scared away. When I write "correction", it is of course by bitcoin standards, as all other markets than bitcoin would call it a crisis. It requires patience to wait for something to happen. It can easily take several years, even though nothing is naturally guaranteed. I am waiting patiently and just buying continuously. Believe in bitcoin, believe in MSTR and the entire management. They will surely navigate well through it all.
·12 t sittenSlowMoney you are genuinely good at explaining things :) Can you explain why you are still so confident in MSTR, when it has done nothing but fall for the last 12 months? The money invested in it could (probably) have given a greater return in something else.. The market has risen a lot in the last 12 months and everyone knows it can't continue at this pace for the next several years.. If it starts to fall now, don't you think it will drag this one further down? I own shares in it myself, so the question is constructive, but the other things I have have risen well and I'm glad not everything is invested in MSTR..5 t sitten5 t sittenThank your for your kind words 🙏. My conviction is above all based on realizing how corrupted and twisted the fiat monetary system is, and how only bitcoin can save us. Using fiat only will destroy societies and civilizations, and moving to the decentralized and absolutely scarce bitcoin standard will save these societies. My conviction is also based on the power law. The power law describes the evolution of many biological and socioeconomic, complex systems. Shitcoins, ie other cryptocurrencies, don’t follow a power law, but bitcoin does, and has done so for over fifteen years. The likelihood of this being a coincidence is very small. So, in addition to having many strong fundamentals to speak for it, bitcoin also seems to follow the laws of physics. So, what’s up with the bitcoin price? It’s currently over -50% below the power law average. This is quite uncommon, but nothing to be worried about. In fact, understanding how the transformation from one system to another needs to take place, one should rather expect such extremes to take place. Also, the power law works like a rubber band. If you pull it more to one direction, it is more likely to make a violent move to the other direction. We could see the tide turn already in July or during Q3, but let’s see. MSTR is levered bitcoin, so it will be even more volatile than bitcoin. All in all, I think we are very close to the bottom, the fiat liquidity or interest rates cannot be tightened much more, the Iran “war” (ie the Iran theater) is about to end, and liquidity is likely to increase. Could the market go lower? Maybe, but not by much, and not for very long. I’ll explain more in a thread.5 t sitten5 t sittenNow, the situation on the market could be explained in a lot of ways, but here’s one approach. Most of the US GDP increase comes from AI. The GDP needs to increase in order for the government to be able to manage their debt. The dollar is actually stronger than many think, but yet, they need the GDP increase. Now, the AI companies are doing IPO’s, SpaceX already did, and others will follow. All those businesses require huge investments to provide the expected growth. Also the federal debt management needs lower interest rates - how convenient 🙂. So what we might see is Clarity Act passing in July, interest rates coming slightly lower, and fiat liquidity increasing. They have held the liquidity tight, and that hurts “risk assets” like bitcoin, but they cannot let the stock market fall. The government needs to tax returns from capital gains tax, which requires stocks to go up forever, and they’ll print the money to guarantee that. And for AI, they probably want to engineer a similar type of boom-bust cycle that happened with internet stocks some 25 years ago. Although if they behave responsibly enough, we could just see a longer and steadier positive economic cycle, we’ll see. How long this downturn will last, I can’t really say for sure, nobody can, but how the probabilities work is that the longer and harder we stretch the rubber band, the more violent move to the other direction will follow. So, stay humble, keep stacking, don’t take too much debt and enjoy life by not following too much of every move on the market. These downturns are mostly engineered, with the purpose of people loosing their faith and selling at the bottom or just having to sell due to too much leverage. Avoid that, and you’ll be rewarded in due time. 😊
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2026 Q1 -tulosraportti
45 päivää sitten
‧2 t 17 min
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Foorumi
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- ·4 t sitten · MuokattuWhen looking at market data, macroeconomics, and the general market cycle, most professional estimates suggest that we will be heading towards the end of Q4 2026 or the beginning of 2027 before we truly see a new, sustained upward movement. There are three primary reasons why the market is likely to consolidate at the current price level here over the summer and autumn of 2026, before the next major advance sets in: 1. Macroeconomics and the Central Bank (Fed) Right now in June 2026, it is the interest rate policy of the American central bank (Fed) that holds the market in an iron grip. Fed maintains a relatively tight and hawkish stance with interest rates around 3.50%–3.75%. As long as liquidity is tight, large institutional investors remain somewhat on the sidelines, which puts a lid on Bitcoin (and thus also MSTR). When will it turn? Many macro analysts expect inflation to further decline towards the end of the year, which may force the central bank into the first real interest rate cuts. This will loosen liquidity and historically send capital directly into risk assets. 2. The Apathy Phase in the 4-year Cycle The market follows classic 4-year patterns. After the massive euphoria and violent movements in 2024/2025, the market is currently in what is called the "apathy phase". Google searches for Bitcoin are at an all-time low, and retail investors have lost patience. Professional players (such as Anthony Scaramucci from SkyBridge) point out that precisely this widespread indifference and thin trading volumes historically characterize the transition towards a solid market bottom, after which a smaller increase in demand can significantly move prices. 3. MSTR's Specific Dynamics MicroStrategy continues to trade at a premium compared to its real Bitcoin holdings. The company is extremely well-capitalized and continues to vacuum the market for Bitcoin at the bottom (they have recently bought further in June 2026 during the price drop). MSTR has built a capital structure that prevents them from getting into trouble despite volatility, but the next explosive advance in the stock requires Bitcoin to break out of its current accumulation zone ($59,000–$64,000). Conclusion on the Timeline If we are to structure the expectations for your thesis, the market operates based on two primary scenarios: Short term (Summer/Autumn 2026): Sideways movement and minor ups and downs. The options market currently shows very wide and uncertain spreads for the rest of the summer, reflecting that the market is "waiting and seeing" macro figures. Beginning of advance (End of 2026 / Beginning of 2027): Here, the real next wave is expected when structural headwinds (interest rates and AI capital absorption) ease, and the cycle re-establishes its upward momentum. Several long-term forecasts point to 2027 as the year when Bitcoin can truly attempt to break new ground.1 t sitten1 t sittenGood comments 👍. 1. I would agree the FED and dollar are relatively stronger than for a long time, the policy is tight, and they’ll like to keep it tight as long as possible. How all things play out, AI, inflation, federal debt management, etc, that will dictate how fast the policy loosens. 2. No more 4-year cycle narratives, please 😅. The cycles are determined by how far we are from the power law average, not by only fiat price. Fiat is the stuff they print out of thin air, so that alone cannot be a reliable metric. 3. Yeah, MSTR is extremely solid despite the downturn lasting possibly longer.
- ·8 t sittenLet's take the bankruptcy talk around Strategy/MSTR a bit more soberly. Yes, MSTR and STRC are under pressure. Yes, STRC trades far below $100. Yes, the market has started to question the financing, dividend obligations, and mNAV. That's fair. But it's a long way from "the funding channel is under pressure" to "the company goes bankrupt". For Strategy to genuinely be in a bankruptcy-threatening situation, several negative things must happen simultaneously and over a longer period. First scenario: Bitcoin falls sharply and remains low for several years. Not just a dip to 55-60k. Not just a normal drawdown. We are talking about an environment where BTC remains so low that the entire balance sheet comes under pressure, while the market loses faith that BTC will recover. This is the most important variable. Strategy is ultimately a huge bet on Bitcoin. If Bitcoin goes significantly higher over 5-10 years, dividend obligations become relatively smaller. If, on the other hand, Bitcoin stagnates or falls for many years, the case becomes weaker. Second scenario: mNAV falls below 1 and stays there permanently. This is an important point. If mNAV is above 1, Strategy can in principle raise capital above the underlying BTC value and use the capital to buy more BTC. This can be accretive for shareholders if BTC per share increases. If, on the other hand, mNAV remains below 1 for a long time, it becomes less attractive to issue common shares because it can result in negative BTC Yield. But again: the problem is not if mNAV temporarily goes below 1. The problem is if mNAV remains permanently low while BTC does not rise. Third scenario: STRC and the other preferred products become so expensive that dividend obligations grow faster than the value of the BTC holdings. This is the real bear-case. If STRC trades far below par, the market demands a higher yield. This can make new financing more expensive. But it does not automatically mean that Strategy cannot pay. It means that the funding channel is less attractive. That's a difference. Fourth scenario: Capital markets close. If Strategy cannot issue common shares, cannot issue preferreds, cannot refinance debt, and at the same time does not want to sell BTC, then liquidity naturally becomes more pressured. But again, this requires a very bad market on several fronts simultaneously. Fifth scenario: They refuse to use the flexibility in the model. Many talk as if Strategy only has two options: issue shares or go bankrupt. That's not true. They can hold back on new purchases. They can sell small amounts of BTC. They can use cash. They can let certain preferred dividends accumulate if they choose not to declare/pay them out, even though that would, of course, damage confidence. They can change the pace of capital allocation. These are not pleasant choices, but it is not automatically bankruptcy. It is also important to understand that a BTC sale is not necessarily catastrophic. It depends on the size and purpose. If Strategy sells 32 BTC out of over 800,000 BTC, it changes nothing fundamentally. It is a signal, yes, and the market can react negatively. But economically it is almost nothing. If they sell a smaller portion of the holdings to avoid destructive dilution, it can actually be rational. The decisive factor is not whether they sell zero BTC forever. The decisive factor is whether they over time increase the value per share and BTC exposure per share. Therefore, I think the bankruptcy talk is far too unnuanced. A bankruptcy case typically requires something like: - Bitcoin falls sharply and remains low for several years. - mNAV falls below 1 and remains low. - The STRC/preferred market remains closed or extremely expensive. - Strategy cannot raise new capital on reasonable terms. - The cash reserve is used up. - The software business cannot contribute enough. - BTC sales become so large that the market loses all confidence. - Refinancing of debt becomes impossible. It is not impossible. But it is a very specific stress scenario. It is not the same as STRC falling to 85, or MSTR falling 25 % in a month. Right now, I see more of a liquidity and confidence problem than a bankruptcy problem. Strategy still owns the world's largest corporate holding of Bitcoin. They still have access to several funding sources. They still have a software business. They still have the ability to adjust the pace of purchases, issuances, and capital allocation. And most importantly: if Bitcoin is significantly higher in 3-5 years, the whole calculation looks different. I am not saying that the risk is zero. On the contrary. MSTR is an extremely volatile stock with a complex capital structure. But calling it bankruptcy every time mNAV compresses or STRC trades below par is, in my opinion, a misunderstanding of what it actually takes for a company with over 800,000 BTC to genuinely become insolvent.6 t sitten6 t sittenToo long, didn't read, never selling. Keep in mind Saylor is not born yesterday, has done more simulations of scenarios you can think of, and if he goes indeed busted, we will buy btc so cheap that all MSTR losses will be easily recovered.
- 9 t sitten · Muokattu9 t sitten · MuokattuDXY is in 1 year highs. Dollar stregth is poison for silver, gold and btc. But dollar strength usually weakens the economy and trough that it will weaken the dollar. And eventually strengthen Bitcoin, but the time span is the big question. Bitcoin is global thing and every fiat currency faces these same problems eventually which i believe is very bullish for btc. Short term we could have real downside but this situation can also flip very fast. Fiat currency strength is just an short term illusion. And it was never sustainable and never will be. Bitcoin adaption is also just in the beginning.·3 t sitten · MuokattuIt's true regarding risk assets generally, but people also tend to overinterpret all data all the time. In 2024 and early 2025 we reached over 100 k, and the dollar exchange rate was 7.27 kr. at the peak. The dollar exchange rate has only been higher once. At the same time, interest rates were very high. I just believe that we have had a healthy correction, and we need a boring market so all the speculators can be scared away. When I write "correction", it is of course by bitcoin standards, as all other markets than bitcoin would call it a crisis. It requires patience to wait for something to happen. It can easily take several years, even though nothing is naturally guaranteed. I am waiting patiently and just buying continuously. Believe in bitcoin, believe in MSTR and the entire management. They will surely navigate well through it all.
- ·12 t sittenSlowMoney you are genuinely good at explaining things :) Can you explain why you are still so confident in MSTR, when it has done nothing but fall for the last 12 months? The money invested in it could (probably) have given a greater return in something else.. The market has risen a lot in the last 12 months and everyone knows it can't continue at this pace for the next several years.. If it starts to fall now, don't you think it will drag this one further down? I own shares in it myself, so the question is constructive, but the other things I have have risen well and I'm glad not everything is invested in MSTR..5 t sitten5 t sittenThank your for your kind words 🙏. My conviction is above all based on realizing how corrupted and twisted the fiat monetary system is, and how only bitcoin can save us. Using fiat only will destroy societies and civilizations, and moving to the decentralized and absolutely scarce bitcoin standard will save these societies. My conviction is also based on the power law. The power law describes the evolution of many biological and socioeconomic, complex systems. Shitcoins, ie other cryptocurrencies, don’t follow a power law, but bitcoin does, and has done so for over fifteen years. The likelihood of this being a coincidence is very small. So, in addition to having many strong fundamentals to speak for it, bitcoin also seems to follow the laws of physics. So, what’s up with the bitcoin price? It’s currently over -50% below the power law average. This is quite uncommon, but nothing to be worried about. In fact, understanding how the transformation from one system to another needs to take place, one should rather expect such extremes to take place. Also, the power law works like a rubber band. If you pull it more to one direction, it is more likely to make a violent move to the other direction. We could see the tide turn already in July or during Q3, but let’s see. MSTR is levered bitcoin, so it will be even more volatile than bitcoin. All in all, I think we are very close to the bottom, the fiat liquidity or interest rates cannot be tightened much more, the Iran “war” (ie the Iran theater) is about to end, and liquidity is likely to increase. Could the market go lower? Maybe, but not by much, and not for very long. I’ll explain more in a thread.5 t sitten5 t sittenNow, the situation on the market could be explained in a lot of ways, but here’s one approach. Most of the US GDP increase comes from AI. The GDP needs to increase in order for the government to be able to manage their debt. The dollar is actually stronger than many think, but yet, they need the GDP increase. Now, the AI companies are doing IPO’s, SpaceX already did, and others will follow. All those businesses require huge investments to provide the expected growth. Also the federal debt management needs lower interest rates - how convenient 🙂. So what we might see is Clarity Act passing in July, interest rates coming slightly lower, and fiat liquidity increasing. They have held the liquidity tight, and that hurts “risk assets” like bitcoin, but they cannot let the stock market fall. The government needs to tax returns from capital gains tax, which requires stocks to go up forever, and they’ll print the money to guarantee that. And for AI, they probably want to engineer a similar type of boom-bust cycle that happened with internet stocks some 25 years ago. Although if they behave responsibly enough, we could just see a longer and steadier positive economic cycle, we’ll see. How long this downturn will last, I can’t really say for sure, nobody can, but how the probabilities work is that the longer and harder we stretch the rubber band, the more violent move to the other direction will follow. So, stay humble, keep stacking, don’t take too much debt and enjoy life by not following too much of every move on the market. These downturns are mostly engineered, with the purpose of people loosing their faith and selling at the bottom or just having to sell due to too much leverage. Avoid that, and you’ll be rewarded in due time. 😊
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Määrä
Osto
-
Myynti
Määrä
-
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - | - |
Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 30.7. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
Vuosittainen yhtiökokous 2026 8.6. | ||
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 5.5. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 5.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 30.10.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 31.7.2025 |
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti
45 päivää sitten
‧2 t 17 min
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 30.7. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
Vuosittainen yhtiökokous 2026 8.6. | ||
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 5.5. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 5.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 30.10.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 31.7.2025 |
Foorumi
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- ·4 t sitten · MuokattuWhen looking at market data, macroeconomics, and the general market cycle, most professional estimates suggest that we will be heading towards the end of Q4 2026 or the beginning of 2027 before we truly see a new, sustained upward movement. There are three primary reasons why the market is likely to consolidate at the current price level here over the summer and autumn of 2026, before the next major advance sets in: 1. Macroeconomics and the Central Bank (Fed) Right now in June 2026, it is the interest rate policy of the American central bank (Fed) that holds the market in an iron grip. Fed maintains a relatively tight and hawkish stance with interest rates around 3.50%–3.75%. As long as liquidity is tight, large institutional investors remain somewhat on the sidelines, which puts a lid on Bitcoin (and thus also MSTR). When will it turn? Many macro analysts expect inflation to further decline towards the end of the year, which may force the central bank into the first real interest rate cuts. This will loosen liquidity and historically send capital directly into risk assets. 2. The Apathy Phase in the 4-year Cycle The market follows classic 4-year patterns. After the massive euphoria and violent movements in 2024/2025, the market is currently in what is called the "apathy phase". Google searches for Bitcoin are at an all-time low, and retail investors have lost patience. Professional players (such as Anthony Scaramucci from SkyBridge) point out that precisely this widespread indifference and thin trading volumes historically characterize the transition towards a solid market bottom, after which a smaller increase in demand can significantly move prices. 3. MSTR's Specific Dynamics MicroStrategy continues to trade at a premium compared to its real Bitcoin holdings. The company is extremely well-capitalized and continues to vacuum the market for Bitcoin at the bottom (they have recently bought further in June 2026 during the price drop). MSTR has built a capital structure that prevents them from getting into trouble despite volatility, but the next explosive advance in the stock requires Bitcoin to break out of its current accumulation zone ($59,000–$64,000). Conclusion on the Timeline If we are to structure the expectations for your thesis, the market operates based on two primary scenarios: Short term (Summer/Autumn 2026): Sideways movement and minor ups and downs. The options market currently shows very wide and uncertain spreads for the rest of the summer, reflecting that the market is "waiting and seeing" macro figures. Beginning of advance (End of 2026 / Beginning of 2027): Here, the real next wave is expected when structural headwinds (interest rates and AI capital absorption) ease, and the cycle re-establishes its upward momentum. Several long-term forecasts point to 2027 as the year when Bitcoin can truly attempt to break new ground.1 t sitten1 t sittenGood comments 👍. 1. I would agree the FED and dollar are relatively stronger than for a long time, the policy is tight, and they’ll like to keep it tight as long as possible. How all things play out, AI, inflation, federal debt management, etc, that will dictate how fast the policy loosens. 2. No more 4-year cycle narratives, please 😅. The cycles are determined by how far we are from the power law average, not by only fiat price. Fiat is the stuff they print out of thin air, so that alone cannot be a reliable metric. 3. Yeah, MSTR is extremely solid despite the downturn lasting possibly longer.
- ·8 t sittenLet's take the bankruptcy talk around Strategy/MSTR a bit more soberly. Yes, MSTR and STRC are under pressure. Yes, STRC trades far below $100. Yes, the market has started to question the financing, dividend obligations, and mNAV. That's fair. But it's a long way from "the funding channel is under pressure" to "the company goes bankrupt". For Strategy to genuinely be in a bankruptcy-threatening situation, several negative things must happen simultaneously and over a longer period. First scenario: Bitcoin falls sharply and remains low for several years. Not just a dip to 55-60k. Not just a normal drawdown. We are talking about an environment where BTC remains so low that the entire balance sheet comes under pressure, while the market loses faith that BTC will recover. This is the most important variable. Strategy is ultimately a huge bet on Bitcoin. If Bitcoin goes significantly higher over 5-10 years, dividend obligations become relatively smaller. If, on the other hand, Bitcoin stagnates or falls for many years, the case becomes weaker. Second scenario: mNAV falls below 1 and stays there permanently. This is an important point. If mNAV is above 1, Strategy can in principle raise capital above the underlying BTC value and use the capital to buy more BTC. This can be accretive for shareholders if BTC per share increases. If, on the other hand, mNAV remains below 1 for a long time, it becomes less attractive to issue common shares because it can result in negative BTC Yield. But again: the problem is not if mNAV temporarily goes below 1. The problem is if mNAV remains permanently low while BTC does not rise. Third scenario: STRC and the other preferred products become so expensive that dividend obligations grow faster than the value of the BTC holdings. This is the real bear-case. If STRC trades far below par, the market demands a higher yield. This can make new financing more expensive. But it does not automatically mean that Strategy cannot pay. It means that the funding channel is less attractive. That's a difference. Fourth scenario: Capital markets close. If Strategy cannot issue common shares, cannot issue preferreds, cannot refinance debt, and at the same time does not want to sell BTC, then liquidity naturally becomes more pressured. But again, this requires a very bad market on several fronts simultaneously. Fifth scenario: They refuse to use the flexibility in the model. Many talk as if Strategy only has two options: issue shares or go bankrupt. That's not true. They can hold back on new purchases. They can sell small amounts of BTC. They can use cash. They can let certain preferred dividends accumulate if they choose not to declare/pay them out, even though that would, of course, damage confidence. They can change the pace of capital allocation. These are not pleasant choices, but it is not automatically bankruptcy. It is also important to understand that a BTC sale is not necessarily catastrophic. It depends on the size and purpose. If Strategy sells 32 BTC out of over 800,000 BTC, it changes nothing fundamentally. It is a signal, yes, and the market can react negatively. But economically it is almost nothing. If they sell a smaller portion of the holdings to avoid destructive dilution, it can actually be rational. The decisive factor is not whether they sell zero BTC forever. The decisive factor is whether they over time increase the value per share and BTC exposure per share. Therefore, I think the bankruptcy talk is far too unnuanced. A bankruptcy case typically requires something like: - Bitcoin falls sharply and remains low for several years. - mNAV falls below 1 and remains low. - The STRC/preferred market remains closed or extremely expensive. - Strategy cannot raise new capital on reasonable terms. - The cash reserve is used up. - The software business cannot contribute enough. - BTC sales become so large that the market loses all confidence. - Refinancing of debt becomes impossible. It is not impossible. But it is a very specific stress scenario. It is not the same as STRC falling to 85, or MSTR falling 25 % in a month. Right now, I see more of a liquidity and confidence problem than a bankruptcy problem. Strategy still owns the world's largest corporate holding of Bitcoin. They still have access to several funding sources. They still have a software business. They still have the ability to adjust the pace of purchases, issuances, and capital allocation. And most importantly: if Bitcoin is significantly higher in 3-5 years, the whole calculation looks different. I am not saying that the risk is zero. On the contrary. MSTR is an extremely volatile stock with a complex capital structure. But calling it bankruptcy every time mNAV compresses or STRC trades below par is, in my opinion, a misunderstanding of what it actually takes for a company with over 800,000 BTC to genuinely become insolvent.6 t sitten6 t sittenToo long, didn't read, never selling. Keep in mind Saylor is not born yesterday, has done more simulations of scenarios you can think of, and if he goes indeed busted, we will buy btc so cheap that all MSTR losses will be easily recovered.
- 9 t sitten · Muokattu9 t sitten · MuokattuDXY is in 1 year highs. Dollar stregth is poison for silver, gold and btc. But dollar strength usually weakens the economy and trough that it will weaken the dollar. And eventually strengthen Bitcoin, but the time span is the big question. Bitcoin is global thing and every fiat currency faces these same problems eventually which i believe is very bullish for btc. Short term we could have real downside but this situation can also flip very fast. Fiat currency strength is just an short term illusion. And it was never sustainable and never will be. Bitcoin adaption is also just in the beginning.·3 t sitten · MuokattuIt's true regarding risk assets generally, but people also tend to overinterpret all data all the time. In 2024 and early 2025 we reached over 100 k, and the dollar exchange rate was 7.27 kr. at the peak. The dollar exchange rate has only been higher once. At the same time, interest rates were very high. I just believe that we have had a healthy correction, and we need a boring market so all the speculators can be scared away. When I write "correction", it is of course by bitcoin standards, as all other markets than bitcoin would call it a crisis. It requires patience to wait for something to happen. It can easily take several years, even though nothing is naturally guaranteed. I am waiting patiently and just buying continuously. Believe in bitcoin, believe in MSTR and the entire management. They will surely navigate well through it all.
- ·12 t sittenSlowMoney you are genuinely good at explaining things :) Can you explain why you are still so confident in MSTR, when it has done nothing but fall for the last 12 months? The money invested in it could (probably) have given a greater return in something else.. The market has risen a lot in the last 12 months and everyone knows it can't continue at this pace for the next several years.. If it starts to fall now, don't you think it will drag this one further down? I own shares in it myself, so the question is constructive, but the other things I have have risen well and I'm glad not everything is invested in MSTR..5 t sitten5 t sittenThank your for your kind words 🙏. My conviction is above all based on realizing how corrupted and twisted the fiat monetary system is, and how only bitcoin can save us. Using fiat only will destroy societies and civilizations, and moving to the decentralized and absolutely scarce bitcoin standard will save these societies. My conviction is also based on the power law. The power law describes the evolution of many biological and socioeconomic, complex systems. Shitcoins, ie other cryptocurrencies, don’t follow a power law, but bitcoin does, and has done so for over fifteen years. The likelihood of this being a coincidence is very small. So, in addition to having many strong fundamentals to speak for it, bitcoin also seems to follow the laws of physics. So, what’s up with the bitcoin price? It’s currently over -50% below the power law average. This is quite uncommon, but nothing to be worried about. In fact, understanding how the transformation from one system to another needs to take place, one should rather expect such extremes to take place. Also, the power law works like a rubber band. If you pull it more to one direction, it is more likely to make a violent move to the other direction. We could see the tide turn already in July or during Q3, but let’s see. MSTR is levered bitcoin, so it will be even more volatile than bitcoin. All in all, I think we are very close to the bottom, the fiat liquidity or interest rates cannot be tightened much more, the Iran “war” (ie the Iran theater) is about to end, and liquidity is likely to increase. Could the market go lower? Maybe, but not by much, and not for very long. I’ll explain more in a thread.5 t sitten5 t sittenNow, the situation on the market could be explained in a lot of ways, but here’s one approach. Most of the US GDP increase comes from AI. The GDP needs to increase in order for the government to be able to manage their debt. The dollar is actually stronger than many think, but yet, they need the GDP increase. Now, the AI companies are doing IPO’s, SpaceX already did, and others will follow. All those businesses require huge investments to provide the expected growth. Also the federal debt management needs lower interest rates - how convenient 🙂. So what we might see is Clarity Act passing in July, interest rates coming slightly lower, and fiat liquidity increasing. They have held the liquidity tight, and that hurts “risk assets” like bitcoin, but they cannot let the stock market fall. The government needs to tax returns from capital gains tax, which requires stocks to go up forever, and they’ll print the money to guarantee that. And for AI, they probably want to engineer a similar type of boom-bust cycle that happened with internet stocks some 25 years ago. Although if they behave responsibly enough, we could just see a longer and steadier positive economic cycle, we’ll see. How long this downturn will last, I can’t really say for sure, nobody can, but how the probabilities work is that the longer and harder we stretch the rubber band, the more violent move to the other direction will follow. So, stay humble, keep stacking, don’t take too much debt and enjoy life by not following too much of every move on the market. These downturns are mostly engineered, with the purpose of people loosing their faith and selling at the bottom or just having to sell due to too much leverage. Avoid that, and you’ll be rewarded in due time. 😊
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