Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
“95% of what Bitcoin does right now is relative to the power curve.”
Some people seem to have a problem with my statements about bitcoin and MSTR. At the heart of what I’m saying is the fact that bitcoin follows a power law.
If you wish to understand more of it, here’s one place to start:
https://www.tftc.io/tftc-bitcoin-crash-power-curve-matthew-mezinskis/
I'm sorry, but fitting regressions on log-plots does not establish a power law. A large number of financial time series produce apparent log-log behavior, while having no true scale invariance. Your exponent is not an invariant parameter of the system but an artifact of sampling.
Don't get me wrong, I'm long BTC and believe it has a positive expected value as an investment, but promoting it with scientific-sounding jargon based on misunderstood mathematical concepts that might sound impressive to layperson is hardly a productive endeavor.
I really hope you are right and bitcoin will make the world better, there is certainly room for improvement!
As for market plays, I just go with empirical evidence and numbers, devoid of any soul, assume my predictions are frequently wrong and everyone will try to screw me over.
I haven't studied the details of the company, so could someone briefly summarize: if the company's value is mostly based on their btc holdings, why did the price diverge from btc around 2024, i.e, why it was trading at such high premium around 400? I first thought it as a leveraged btc, but the amount of leverage doesn't seem to explain it. Also, suppose you want to invest in leveraged bitcoin, the company's current WACC% is ridiculous 25% (if the data is correct), so would it not be more reasonable to just get a loan and buy btc directly for cheaper leverage? And finally, what is the game plane here, if say, btc drops further 25% and stays there for a year or two, how do they plan to finance the interest payments? They seem to hold around 5% of btc float (maybe even more, considering how much btc have been permanently lost), at what point would they be forced to liquidate? It appears there is a significant probability of runaway meltdown? What am I missing?
Thank you, I see the demand for a BTC equity proxy.
I also see the classic symptoms of over-innovating when all they needed was a low-overhead vault. We should hope they don't fuck up and blow it all up by obsessively adding complexity.
I did look at their SEC filings to get some ballpark estimates. The current equity would be wiped if BTC hits ~22k. Seems far, but that was only three years ago. Simulating Brownian motion using observed BTC volatility gives around a 20–30% chance to hit that again in a 3 year timeframe. Not too bad, but I wouldn't bet my life on it.
Presumably, they would do something before that happens. The risk, as I see it, would be a self-reinforcing feedback loop: they own so much BTC that if they are forced to sell some, it will push the price down, leading to even more pressure, and so on.
Still, it's not as bad as I feared observing the dramatic price drop. It seems to reflect a deflation of a company-specific hype bubble from NAV 2 -> 1, rather than immediate structural failure.
Personally, I still rather hold BTC directly, as it feels risky enough without additional stupidity risk.
Again, I’m not a big TA fan, but this makes sense:
https://x.com/ryansmethod/status/1996732066478936468
Some thoughts from the video: did we see the bottom? Maybe, but there is a chance bitcoin and MSTR still find lower lows. When do they go significantly up again? Possibly soon, but first we might need to see gold around $5000, perhaps in February.
What is my plan? I’m already mostly invested, and bought quite a lot in the recent dips, but I also have some cash to buy a potential future dip. Overall, I’m also expecting the next year to be a good one, but we’ll see.
The business model can be shelved if they cannot raise capital. But how are they supposed to raise capital, when company owners before them have up to 18% annual interest? It will probably be difficult to raise money going forward, and the interest rate will probably be junk percentages.
The model worked well on the hype and in a zero-interest rate environment. Now it must rise sharply to service the cost of capital. In addition, BTC is starting to be heavily regulated, which is against its main intention of an independent network, so its main users will seek new chains. (And then the remaining value is a sheet with some simple codes - The White paper)
More total nonsense from an expected source.
The price of bitcoin goes up according to the power law some 40-20% annually for the 5-20 years. Strategy finances the bitcoin purchases eg by offering a 10.75% yield on STRC ($100 per share). This is a very competitive yield compared to any other yield on the market, as well as a very low yield compared to expected bitcoin returns. The interest rate environment does not much change the big picture.
If you don’t understand monetary systems and the power law, you might have a hard time understanding why the above applies, but I cannot tell you everything here, you need to study it yourself.
A government can regulate itself out from bitcoin, but cannot change the bitcoin protocol or prevent others to use bitcoin with regulation. Therefore, regulation is a non-issue, and you can quit shouting about it.
Who are you asking? 😅 I already bought quite a lot this Monday and a week from that on Friday from the dips below current levels. Could we still go lower? Maybe. I still have some cash on the sidelines, just in case. But you need to make your own decision. 🙂
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Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
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Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Tuotteita joiden kohde-etuutena tämä arvopaperi
Sertifikaatit
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti
37 päivää sitten1 t 52 min
Uutiset ja analyysit
Uutiset ja lehdistötiedotteet
Analyysit
28 heinä 12.17
∙
Osakeuutinen
Di varnar för spekulationsbubbla i bitcoin-treasury-bolag
25 heinä 09.13
∙
Osakeuutinen
Strategy reser 2,8 miljarder dollar i nytt kapital för att investera i bitcoin - BN
16 heinä 13.34
∙
Osakeuutinen
Gamestop köper bitcoin som inflationsskydd - inte för att bygga en långsiktig kryptoportfölj
27 tammi 13.42
∙
Osakeuutinen
Microstrategy har köpt bitcoins för 1,1 miljarder dollar
21 tammi 13.21
∙
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Microstrategy har köpt bitcoins för 1,1 miljarder dollar
23. joulukuuta 2024 13.27
∙
Osakeuutinen
Microstrategy fortsätter köpräden i bitcoin
16. joulukuuta 2024 14.06
∙
Osakeuutinen
Microstrategy köper bitcoins för 1,5 miljarder dollar
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∙
Osakeuutinen
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∙
Osakeuutinen
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∙
Osakeuutinen
Microstrategy köper bitcoins för 2,1 miljarder dollar
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∙
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Microstrategy fortsätter köpa bitcoins - nu för 1,5 miljarder dollar
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∙
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Microstrategy har köpt fler bitcoins för runt 2 miljarder dollar
11. syyskuuta 2024 11.25
∙
Osakeuutinen
Amerikanska kryptoaktier tappar efter presidentdebatten
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
“95% of what Bitcoin does right now is relative to the power curve.”
Some people seem to have a problem with my statements about bitcoin and MSTR. At the heart of what I’m saying is the fact that bitcoin follows a power law.
If you wish to understand more of it, here’s one place to start:
https://www.tftc.io/tftc-bitcoin-crash-power-curve-matthew-mezinskis/
I'm sorry, but fitting regressions on log-plots does not establish a power law. A large number of financial time series produce apparent log-log behavior, while having no true scale invariance. Your exponent is not an invariant parameter of the system but an artifact of sampling.
Don't get me wrong, I'm long BTC and believe it has a positive expected value as an investment, but promoting it with scientific-sounding jargon based on misunderstood mathematical concepts that might sound impressive to layperson is hardly a productive endeavor.
I really hope you are right and bitcoin will make the world better, there is certainly room for improvement!
As for market plays, I just go with empirical evidence and numbers, devoid of any soul, assume my predictions are frequently wrong and everyone will try to screw me over.
I haven't studied the details of the company, so could someone briefly summarize: if the company's value is mostly based on their btc holdings, why did the price diverge from btc around 2024, i.e, why it was trading at such high premium around 400? I first thought it as a leveraged btc, but the amount of leverage doesn't seem to explain it. Also, suppose you want to invest in leveraged bitcoin, the company's current WACC% is ridiculous 25% (if the data is correct), so would it not be more reasonable to just get a loan and buy btc directly for cheaper leverage? And finally, what is the game plane here, if say, btc drops further 25% and stays there for a year or two, how do they plan to finance the interest payments? They seem to hold around 5% of btc float (maybe even more, considering how much btc have been permanently lost), at what point would they be forced to liquidate? It appears there is a significant probability of runaway meltdown? What am I missing?
Thank you, I see the demand for a BTC equity proxy.
I also see the classic symptoms of over-innovating when all they needed was a low-overhead vault. We should hope they don't fuck up and blow it all up by obsessively adding complexity.
I did look at their SEC filings to get some ballpark estimates. The current equity would be wiped if BTC hits ~22k. Seems far, but that was only three years ago. Simulating Brownian motion using observed BTC volatility gives around a 20–30% chance to hit that again in a 3 year timeframe. Not too bad, but I wouldn't bet my life on it.
Presumably, they would do something before that happens. The risk, as I see it, would be a self-reinforcing feedback loop: they own so much BTC that if they are forced to sell some, it will push the price down, leading to even more pressure, and so on.
Still, it's not as bad as I feared observing the dramatic price drop. It seems to reflect a deflation of a company-specific hype bubble from NAV 2 -> 1, rather than immediate structural failure.
Personally, I still rather hold BTC directly, as it feels risky enough without additional stupidity risk.
Again, I’m not a big TA fan, but this makes sense:
https://x.com/ryansmethod/status/1996732066478936468
Some thoughts from the video: did we see the bottom? Maybe, but there is a chance bitcoin and MSTR still find lower lows. When do they go significantly up again? Possibly soon, but first we might need to see gold around $5000, perhaps in February.
What is my plan? I’m already mostly invested, and bought quite a lot in the recent dips, but I also have some cash to buy a potential future dip. Overall, I’m also expecting the next year to be a good one, but we’ll see.
The business model can be shelved if they cannot raise capital. But how are they supposed to raise capital, when company owners before them have up to 18% annual interest? It will probably be difficult to raise money going forward, and the interest rate will probably be junk percentages.
The model worked well on the hype and in a zero-interest rate environment. Now it must rise sharply to service the cost of capital. In addition, BTC is starting to be heavily regulated, which is against its main intention of an independent network, so its main users will seek new chains. (And then the remaining value is a sheet with some simple codes - The White paper)
More total nonsense from an expected source.
The price of bitcoin goes up according to the power law some 40-20% annually for the 5-20 years. Strategy finances the bitcoin purchases eg by offering a 10.75% yield on STRC ($100 per share). This is a very competitive yield compared to any other yield on the market, as well as a very low yield compared to expected bitcoin returns. The interest rate environment does not much change the big picture.
If you don’t understand monetary systems and the power law, you might have a hard time understanding why the above applies, but I cannot tell you everything here, you need to study it yourself.
A government can regulate itself out from bitcoin, but cannot change the bitcoin protocol or prevent others to use bitcoin with regulation. Therefore, regulation is a non-issue, and you can quit shouting about it.
Who are you asking? 😅 I already bought quite a lot this Monday and a week from that on Friday from the dips below current levels. Could we still go lower? Maybe. I still have some cash on the sidelines, just in case. But you need to make your own decision. 🙂
Näytä vielä 5 kommenttia
Näytä 1 vastaus
Näytä enemmän
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Nasdaq
Määrä
Osto
0
178,99
Myynti
Määrä
179,06
0
Viimeisimmät kaupat
Aika
Hinta
Määrä
Ostaja
Myyjä
-
-
-
-
-
Ylin
185,39
VWAP
180,5
Alin
176,3
VaihtoMäärä
3 741,8 20 750 666
VWAP
180,5
Ylin
185,39
Alin
176,3
VaihtoMäärä
3 741,8 20 750 666
Tietoa osakekaupankäyntiin liittyvistä riskeistä
Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
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Seuraava tapahtuma
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
3.2.2026
Menneet tapahtumat
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti
30.10.
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti
31.7.
Vuosittainen yhtiökokous 2025
12.6.
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti
1.5.
2024 Q4 -tulosraportti
5.2.
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr
Tuotteita joiden kohde-etuutena tämä arvopaperi
Sertifikaatit
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
“95% of what Bitcoin does right now is relative to the power curve.”
Some people seem to have a problem with my statements about bitcoin and MSTR. At the heart of what I’m saying is the fact that bitcoin follows a power law.
If you wish to understand more of it, here’s one place to start:
https://www.tftc.io/tftc-bitcoin-crash-power-curve-matthew-mezinskis/
I'm sorry, but fitting regressions on log-plots does not establish a power law. A large number of financial time series produce apparent log-log behavior, while having no true scale invariance. Your exponent is not an invariant parameter of the system but an artifact of sampling.
Don't get me wrong, I'm long BTC and believe it has a positive expected value as an investment, but promoting it with scientific-sounding jargon based on misunderstood mathematical concepts that might sound impressive to layperson is hardly a productive endeavor.
I really hope you are right and bitcoin will make the world better, there is certainly room for improvement!
As for market plays, I just go with empirical evidence and numbers, devoid of any soul, assume my predictions are frequently wrong and everyone will try to screw me over.
I haven't studied the details of the company, so could someone briefly summarize: if the company's value is mostly based on their btc holdings, why did the price diverge from btc around 2024, i.e, why it was trading at such high premium around 400? I first thought it as a leveraged btc, but the amount of leverage doesn't seem to explain it. Also, suppose you want to invest in leveraged bitcoin, the company's current WACC% is ridiculous 25% (if the data is correct), so would it not be more reasonable to just get a loan and buy btc directly for cheaper leverage? And finally, what is the game plane here, if say, btc drops further 25% and stays there for a year or two, how do they plan to finance the interest payments? They seem to hold around 5% of btc float (maybe even more, considering how much btc have been permanently lost), at what point would they be forced to liquidate? It appears there is a significant probability of runaway meltdown? What am I missing?
Thank you, I see the demand for a BTC equity proxy.
I also see the classic symptoms of over-innovating when all they needed was a low-overhead vault. We should hope they don't fuck up and blow it all up by obsessively adding complexity.
I did look at their SEC filings to get some ballpark estimates. The current equity would be wiped if BTC hits ~22k. Seems far, but that was only three years ago. Simulating Brownian motion using observed BTC volatility gives around a 20–30% chance to hit that again in a 3 year timeframe. Not too bad, but I wouldn't bet my life on it.
Presumably, they would do something before that happens. The risk, as I see it, would be a self-reinforcing feedback loop: they own so much BTC that if they are forced to sell some, it will push the price down, leading to even more pressure, and so on.
Still, it's not as bad as I feared observing the dramatic price drop. It seems to reflect a deflation of a company-specific hype bubble from NAV 2 -> 1, rather than immediate structural failure.
Personally, I still rather hold BTC directly, as it feels risky enough without additional stupidity risk.
Again, I’m not a big TA fan, but this makes sense:
https://x.com/ryansmethod/status/1996732066478936468
Some thoughts from the video: did we see the bottom? Maybe, but there is a chance bitcoin and MSTR still find lower lows. When do they go significantly up again? Possibly soon, but first we might need to see gold around $5000, perhaps in February.
What is my plan? I’m already mostly invested, and bought quite a lot in the recent dips, but I also have some cash to buy a potential future dip. Overall, I’m also expecting the next year to be a good one, but we’ll see.
The business model can be shelved if they cannot raise capital. But how are they supposed to raise capital, when company owners before them have up to 18% annual interest? It will probably be difficult to raise money going forward, and the interest rate will probably be junk percentages.
The model worked well on the hype and in a zero-interest rate environment. Now it must rise sharply to service the cost of capital. In addition, BTC is starting to be heavily regulated, which is against its main intention of an independent network, so its main users will seek new chains. (And then the remaining value is a sheet with some simple codes - The White paper)
More total nonsense from an expected source.
The price of bitcoin goes up according to the power law some 40-20% annually for the 5-20 years. Strategy finances the bitcoin purchases eg by offering a 10.75% yield on STRC ($100 per share). This is a very competitive yield compared to any other yield on the market, as well as a very low yield compared to expected bitcoin returns. The interest rate environment does not much change the big picture.
If you don’t understand monetary systems and the power law, you might have a hard time understanding why the above applies, but I cannot tell you everything here, you need to study it yourself.
A government can regulate itself out from bitcoin, but cannot change the bitcoin protocol or prevent others to use bitcoin with regulation. Therefore, regulation is a non-issue, and you can quit shouting about it.
Who are you asking? 😅 I already bought quite a lot this Monday and a week from that on Friday from the dips below current levels. Could we still go lower? Maybe. I still have some cash on the sidelines, just in case. But you need to make your own decision. 🙂
Näytä vielä 5 kommenttia
Näytä 1 vastaus
Näytä enemmän
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Nasdaq
Määrä
Osto
0
178,99
Myynti
Määrä
179,06
0
Viimeisimmät kaupat
Aika
Hinta
Määrä
Ostaja
Myyjä
-
-
-
-
-
Ylin
185,39
VWAP
180,5
Alin
176,3
VaihtoMäärä
3 741,8 20 750 666
VWAP
180,5
Ylin
185,39
Alin
176,3
VaihtoMäärä
3 741,8 20 750 666
Tietoa osakekaupankäyntiin liittyvistä riskeistä
Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.