2025 Q3 -tulosraportti
74 päivää sitten23 min
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| 793 | - | - | ||
| 177 | - | - | ||
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1,4 9 595
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Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: Quartr, FactSet| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 -tulosraportti | 13.2. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 -tulosraportti | 7.11.2025 | |
| 2025 Q2 -tulosraportti | 29.8.2025 | |
| 2025 Q1 -tulosraportti | 16.5.2025 | |
| 2024 Q4 -tulosraportti | 14.2.2025 | |
| 2024 Q3 -tulosraportti | 8.11.2024 |
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9.1. · Muokattu9.1. · MuokattuPRICE TARGET 318NOK The fundamental argument for Arendals Fossekompani as a "deep value" stock lies in its SOTP valuation. As of early 2026, the company’s market capitalization of approximately NOK 7.4 billion implies a massive discount to its Net Asset Value (NAV).2 This "pessimism" is likely a result of the group’s complex structure and its recent transition from quarterly to annual dividend announcements, which may have deterred some short-term income-oriented investors.1Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation FrameworkApplying conservative private m arket multiples to AFK’s subsidiaries reveals a stark disconnect from the current market price:AFK Vannkraft (100%): Norwegian hydropower assets are typically valued at NOK 20-30 million per GWh of annual production.17 At a conservative valuation of NOK 20m/GWh for its 500 GWh steady-state output, the hydropower segment alone is worth NOK 10 billion.Volue (40% stake): Based on its delisting valuation of NOK 6 billion and subsequent value-enhancing divestments (Infrastructure sale for 1.8bn), the current stake is conservatively worth NOK 2.4 billion to NOK 3.0 billion.19NSSLGlobal (80% stake): With a record GBP 19.2 million operating profit and GBP 21.5 million EBITDA, a 10x EBITDA multiple (common for high-margin defense tech) values the business at GBP 215 million (~NOK 3.0 billion).1 AFK’s stake is worth ~NOK 2.4 billion.Tekna (69.5% stake): Despite market cap fluctuations, Tekna’s leading position in plasma materials and its recent EBITDA pivot suggest a valuation far above its current book value. At its current market cap of ~NOK 800m, AFK’s stake is worth NOK 560 million.23Parent Liquidity and Cash: AFK maintains a flawless balance sheet with NOK 720 million in cash and NOK 2.0 billion in undrawn credit as of late 2025.1The aggregate value of just these core components—even excluding ENRX, Alytic, and the real estate holdings—exceeds NOK 16 billion. This suggests that AFK is currently trading at a 50% to 60% discount to its intrinsic NAV.Industrial ComponentEstimated Value (mNOK)Valuation BasisAFK Vannkraft10,000500 GWh @ 20m/GWhVolue (40%)2,400Delisting price + growthNSSLGlobal (80%)2,40010x EBITDAParent Cash (Net)7203Q 2025 reported cashTotal Core SOTP15,520Excludes ENRX, Tekna, PropertyMarket Sentiment vs. Operational RealityThe state of "maximum pessimism" in AFK’s valuation is further evidenced by its Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. As of early 2026, the group trades at a trailing TTM P/E of approximately 17.8x, which is below the European industrial industry average of 21x.3 However, this TTM P/E is heavily distorted by restructuring costs at Volue and R&D spending at Tekna.1 When looking at the parent company's profit profile, which includes massive one-time gains from the Volue restructuring, the "true" underlying earnings power of the group is far higher.1Furthermore, AFK’s price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.3x is incredibly low for a company that holds virtually all its assets at historical cost rather than fair market value.3 The hydropower plants, for example, have been depreciated over decades and are carried on the books at a fraction of their multi-billion NOK replacement value.1ESG Integration and the EU Taxonomy OpportunityArendals Fossekompani is uniquely positioned to benefit from the global pivot toward sustainable investing. The group has fully embraced the EU Taxonomy for sustainable activities, providing transparent reporting on its alignment with climate change mitigation and adaptation goals.1 In 2024, 99.8% of the turnover from the hydropower segment was aligned with the taxonomy, while other divisions like Volue and ENRX have a high percentage of "eligible" activities that enable the transition for their customers.1The group's transition plan, expected to be fully operational by 2026, includes decarbonization levers across all its subsidiaries.1 By setting science-based targets (SBTi) for its parent operations and requiring its portfolio companies to do the same, AFK is mitigating the regulatory and reputational risks associated with the energy transition.1 As institutional investors continue to shift capital toward ESG-aligned leaders, AFK’s profile as a "green industrial" investment platform provides a long-term re-rating catalyst that the market currently ignores.1Risk Management in a Deglobalizing WorldWhile the upside is considerable, AFK management remains focused on the "Operational risks" of a volatile global economy. The group updates its risk strategy annually, and in 2024, it explicitly prioritized "De-risking the portfolio" by divesting capital-intensive and subsidy-dependent models, such as the battery company Commeo and the renewable development firm Vergia.1The group's current portfolio is strategically aligned with the megatrend of "Deglobalization." As geopolitical tensions increase the need for reshoring and secure supply chains, Tekna’s advanced materials and NSSLGlobal’s secure communications become more valuable.
·15.1. · MuokattuGood piece of work and solid bull analysis, is the author identical to the thread starter? (if yes, please disclose your connection to the company - is it e.g. a paid pump assignment?) NAV (regardless of the number) says nothing about fair marketcap - profitability is "the muscle". That e.g. a change in the payout time of a microscopic dividend means something for the interest, I disregard. Excerpt from 2025 outlook: (what has changed for 2026 and the years to come?) AFK Group revenue/ebit in 2025 is expected to be lower than in 2024. The portfolio companies have no growth/profitability to speak of in 2025. Of companies of a certain size, Volue/Tekna expect increased revenue/ebit, NSSL Global expects lower revenue/ebit than last year. ENRX (the largest unit) is under pressure due to a decline in revenue and weak results. = A small part of revenue comes from hydropower, without contributions from hydropower the company operates at a loss (adjusted for one-off sales gains).- ·30.12.2025 · MuokattuQ3 multiples: EV 9.11 bn kr (7.5+1.64+1.53-1.56) Ebitda LTM 0.43 bn kr EV/ebitda LTM 21.2x - very expensive (normal ratio 8-12x). Nidb/ebitda LTM 0.6x - little debt. P/E LTM 156x (7500/48 mill nok) - OB's most expensive stock. (earnings adjusted for sales gain from Volue) Q3 operations: Loss (1) when adjusted for sales gain. Weak development in operating profit (LTM ebit is down from 13% to 3.9%)
·7.11.2025Third Quarter Results: Solid performance despite lower revenues Oslo Børs – 7. November 2025, Arendal Arendals Fossekompani ASA (OSE: AFK) reported revenues of 853 million kroner (909 million) and an operating profit (EBIT) of 33 million kroner (51 million) in the third quarter 2025. Ordinary profit after tax, but before minority interests, amounted to 733 million kroner (-25 million). The decrease in the group's revenues and operating profit compared to the previous year was due to challenging market conditions for ENRX and lower hydropower production. "Despite lower figures at group level, we see several solid performances in the portfolio companies. Volue delivered 24 % revenue growth year-on-year and a cash EBITDA margin of 19 %, NSSLGlobal reported growth in both revenues and profit, and Tekna delivered its first quarter with positive EBITDA since its IPO," says CEO Benjamin Golding. Tekna – important milestone In the quarter, Tekna delivered its first positive EBITDA quarter since its IPO. Revenues were 8,3 million CAD, corresponding to 9 % growth year-on-year. The growth was driven by a strong development in the Materials division, which increased revenues by 28 % year-on-year. "This is an important milestone for Tekna. As a long-term owner, we have great faith in the company's continued development and value creation potential," says Golding. After the quarter-end, the company announced a financing agreement with Scotiabank and a fully subscribed share issue of 300 million kroner. With this, Tekna's business plan until 2030 is fully financed. Volue – continued strong development Volue delivered solid growth and margin improvement. With an ARR growth of 22 % and a cash EBITDA margin of 19 %, the company delivered its second consecutive quarter as a "Rule-of-40" company. In the quarter, Volue completed the sale of its Infrastructure division to FSN Capital, which resulted in a recognized gain of 1,8 billion kroner. After the quarter-end, the company acquired smartPulse, which strengthens its expansion in Southern and Eastern Europe as well as Turkey, and increases capacity in power exchange and battery optimization. Sale of Factlines In line with the strategy to reduce exposure to early-stage companies, Arendals Fossekompani sold Factlines to the leading Nordic ESG software and consulting player Position Green. As a result of the transaction, Arendals Fossekompani is now a minority shareholder in Position Green. Portfolio Highlights Volue: Continued strong development Revenues: 349 million kroner (281 million), up 24 % year-on-year. SaaS revenues: 150 million kroner, up 30 % from Q3 2024, and now account for 43 % of the total. Completed sale of the Infrastructure division to FSN Capital, completing the transformation into a pure-play energy and power grid software company. Gain: 1,8 billion kroner. ENRX: A challenging quarter Revenues: 31,2 million EUR (35,5 million). Operating profit: -0,9 million EUR (2,1 million). Order intake: 30,8 million EUR (34,1 million). Order backlog: 61 million EUR (77 million). ENRX continues to reduce costs and maintain strict capital discipline to adapt to the market cycle and improve profitability. NSSLGlobal: Growth in revenues and profit Revenues: 24,9 million GBP (23,7 million). Operating profit: 4,6 million GBP (4,1 million). Operating margin: 19 % (18 %). New contracts: 16,8 million GBP (9,1 million) across enterprise, government, and maritime sectors. Tekna: First quarter with positive EBITDA since IPO Revenues: 8,3 million CAD (7,6 million). Materials division: +28 % growth year-on-year. Order intake last 12 months: record high 32,5 million CAD. Adjusted EBITDA: +0,5 million CAD (-1,4 million). Cash flow from operations: -0,3 million CAD (-0,6 million). Cost reductions continue through 2025 and are expected to further strengthen profitability. AFK Hydropower: Low production partly compensated by higher prices Revenues: 59 million kroner (75 million). Production: 83,4 GWh (161,7 GWh). Average price NO2 area: 67 EUR/MWh (37,8 EUR/MWh). Lower reservoir levels than in 2024 have driven prices up in 2025. Solid financial position Arendals Fossekompani continues to have a strong financial position. As of 30. September, the parent company had 720 million kroner in cash, as well as undrawn credit facilities of 2 003 million kroner. Total available liquidity thus amounted to 2 723 million kroner. Net interest-bearing debt (NIBD), excluding shareholder loans, was 131 million kroner at quarter-end. "We remain focused on costs and profitability, while optimizing the portfolio for long-term value creation," says Golding. As an international group, Arendals Fossekompani is naturally exposed to currency movements. Revenues denominated in NOK in ENRX and NSSLGlobal were positively impacted by the weakened Norwegian Krone compared to the third quarter 2024. https://www.nordnet.no/market/news/86cc20f6-4b47-43ad-b85b-9213b4ed0312·19.11.2025 · MuokattuI have not studied Q3. See three challenges: AFK ebit is weak (Q2-3). Mini hype NSSL Global (250 employees) expects lower revenue/ebit in 2025 than last year, they wrote in Q2. ENRX (largest unit 1150 of 2400 employees) is under pressure due to decline in revenue and weak results.- ·5.9.2025Owners of AFK, taken from E24 ULFOSS INVEST AS 26.27% HAVFONN AS 26.02% MUST INVEST AS 25.19% ARENDALS FOSSEKOMPANI ASA 1.88% FOLKETRYGDFONDET 1.36% SVANHILD OG ARNE MUST FOND FOR MED 1.17% FABULOUS AS 0.81% JOHANSEN PER-DIETRICH 0.67% FONDSFINANS PENSION FUND 0.64% FLØTEMARKEN AS 0.58% Other 15.41%·15.9.2025 · MuokattuHistorically (30 years) it has been Ulrichsen (Ulfoss) and Must who have managed AFK. How long Bergesen (Havfonn) has been there, I don't know. What is certain is that neither of them has given at today's level.
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2025 Q3 -tulosraportti
74 päivää sitten23 min
1,00 NOK/osake
Viimeisin osinko
2,65%Tuotto/v
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
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Kirjaudu
- 9.1. · Muokattu9.1. · MuokattuPRICE TARGET 318NOK The fundamental argument for Arendals Fossekompani as a "deep value" stock lies in its SOTP valuation. As of early 2026, the company’s market capitalization of approximately NOK 7.4 billion implies a massive discount to its Net Asset Value (NAV).2 This "pessimism" is likely a result of the group’s complex structure and its recent transition from quarterly to annual dividend announcements, which may have deterred some short-term income-oriented investors.1Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation FrameworkApplying conservative private m arket multiples to AFK’s subsidiaries reveals a stark disconnect from the current market price:AFK Vannkraft (100%): Norwegian hydropower assets are typically valued at NOK 20-30 million per GWh of annual production.17 At a conservative valuation of NOK 20m/GWh for its 500 GWh steady-state output, the hydropower segment alone is worth NOK 10 billion.Volue (40% stake): Based on its delisting valuation of NOK 6 billion and subsequent value-enhancing divestments (Infrastructure sale for 1.8bn), the current stake is conservatively worth NOK 2.4 billion to NOK 3.0 billion.19NSSLGlobal (80% stake): With a record GBP 19.2 million operating profit and GBP 21.5 million EBITDA, a 10x EBITDA multiple (common for high-margin defense tech) values the business at GBP 215 million (~NOK 3.0 billion).1 AFK’s stake is worth ~NOK 2.4 billion.Tekna (69.5% stake): Despite market cap fluctuations, Tekna’s leading position in plasma materials and its recent EBITDA pivot suggest a valuation far above its current book value. At its current market cap of ~NOK 800m, AFK’s stake is worth NOK 560 million.23Parent Liquidity and Cash: AFK maintains a flawless balance sheet with NOK 720 million in cash and NOK 2.0 billion in undrawn credit as of late 2025.1The aggregate value of just these core components—even excluding ENRX, Alytic, and the real estate holdings—exceeds NOK 16 billion. This suggests that AFK is currently trading at a 50% to 60% discount to its intrinsic NAV.Industrial ComponentEstimated Value (mNOK)Valuation BasisAFK Vannkraft10,000500 GWh @ 20m/GWhVolue (40%)2,400Delisting price + growthNSSLGlobal (80%)2,40010x EBITDAParent Cash (Net)7203Q 2025 reported cashTotal Core SOTP15,520Excludes ENRX, Tekna, PropertyMarket Sentiment vs. Operational RealityThe state of "maximum pessimism" in AFK’s valuation is further evidenced by its Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. As of early 2026, the group trades at a trailing TTM P/E of approximately 17.8x, which is below the European industrial industry average of 21x.3 However, this TTM P/E is heavily distorted by restructuring costs at Volue and R&D spending at Tekna.1 When looking at the parent company's profit profile, which includes massive one-time gains from the Volue restructuring, the "true" underlying earnings power of the group is far higher.1Furthermore, AFK’s price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.3x is incredibly low for a company that holds virtually all its assets at historical cost rather than fair market value.3 The hydropower plants, for example, have been depreciated over decades and are carried on the books at a fraction of their multi-billion NOK replacement value.1ESG Integration and the EU Taxonomy OpportunityArendals Fossekompani is uniquely positioned to benefit from the global pivot toward sustainable investing. The group has fully embraced the EU Taxonomy for sustainable activities, providing transparent reporting on its alignment with climate change mitigation and adaptation goals.1 In 2024, 99.8% of the turnover from the hydropower segment was aligned with the taxonomy, while other divisions like Volue and ENRX have a high percentage of "eligible" activities that enable the transition for their customers.1The group's transition plan, expected to be fully operational by 2026, includes decarbonization levers across all its subsidiaries.1 By setting science-based targets (SBTi) for its parent operations and requiring its portfolio companies to do the same, AFK is mitigating the regulatory and reputational risks associated with the energy transition.1 As institutional investors continue to shift capital toward ESG-aligned leaders, AFK’s profile as a "green industrial" investment platform provides a long-term re-rating catalyst that the market currently ignores.1Risk Management in a Deglobalizing WorldWhile the upside is considerable, AFK management remains focused on the "Operational risks" of a volatile global economy. The group updates its risk strategy annually, and in 2024, it explicitly prioritized "De-risking the portfolio" by divesting capital-intensive and subsidy-dependent models, such as the battery company Commeo and the renewable development firm Vergia.1The group's current portfolio is strategically aligned with the megatrend of "Deglobalization." As geopolitical tensions increase the need for reshoring and secure supply chains, Tekna’s advanced materials and NSSLGlobal’s secure communications become more valuable.·15.1. · MuokattuGood piece of work and solid bull analysis, is the author identical to the thread starter? (if yes, please disclose your connection to the company - is it e.g. a paid pump assignment?) NAV (regardless of the number) says nothing about fair marketcap - profitability is "the muscle". That e.g. a change in the payout time of a microscopic dividend means something for the interest, I disregard. Excerpt from 2025 outlook: (what has changed for 2026 and the years to come?) AFK Group revenue/ebit in 2025 is expected to be lower than in 2024. The portfolio companies have no growth/profitability to speak of in 2025. Of companies of a certain size, Volue/Tekna expect increased revenue/ebit, NSSL Global expects lower revenue/ebit than last year. ENRX (the largest unit) is under pressure due to a decline in revenue and weak results. = A small part of revenue comes from hydropower, without contributions from hydropower the company operates at a loss (adjusted for one-off sales gains).
- ·30.12.2025 · MuokattuQ3 multiples: EV 9.11 bn kr (7.5+1.64+1.53-1.56) Ebitda LTM 0.43 bn kr EV/ebitda LTM 21.2x - very expensive (normal ratio 8-12x). Nidb/ebitda LTM 0.6x - little debt. P/E LTM 156x (7500/48 mill nok) - OB's most expensive stock. (earnings adjusted for sales gain from Volue) Q3 operations: Loss (1) when adjusted for sales gain. Weak development in operating profit (LTM ebit is down from 13% to 3.9%)
- ·7.11.2025Third Quarter Results: Solid performance despite lower revenues Oslo Børs – 7. November 2025, Arendal Arendals Fossekompani ASA (OSE: AFK) reported revenues of 853 million kroner (909 million) and an operating profit (EBIT) of 33 million kroner (51 million) in the third quarter 2025. Ordinary profit after tax, but before minority interests, amounted to 733 million kroner (-25 million). The decrease in the group's revenues and operating profit compared to the previous year was due to challenging market conditions for ENRX and lower hydropower production. "Despite lower figures at group level, we see several solid performances in the portfolio companies. Volue delivered 24 % revenue growth year-on-year and a cash EBITDA margin of 19 %, NSSLGlobal reported growth in both revenues and profit, and Tekna delivered its first quarter with positive EBITDA since its IPO," says CEO Benjamin Golding. Tekna – important milestone In the quarter, Tekna delivered its first positive EBITDA quarter since its IPO. Revenues were 8,3 million CAD, corresponding to 9 % growth year-on-year. The growth was driven by a strong development in the Materials division, which increased revenues by 28 % year-on-year. "This is an important milestone for Tekna. As a long-term owner, we have great faith in the company's continued development and value creation potential," says Golding. After the quarter-end, the company announced a financing agreement with Scotiabank and a fully subscribed share issue of 300 million kroner. With this, Tekna's business plan until 2030 is fully financed. Volue – continued strong development Volue delivered solid growth and margin improvement. With an ARR growth of 22 % and a cash EBITDA margin of 19 %, the company delivered its second consecutive quarter as a "Rule-of-40" company. In the quarter, Volue completed the sale of its Infrastructure division to FSN Capital, which resulted in a recognized gain of 1,8 billion kroner. After the quarter-end, the company acquired smartPulse, which strengthens its expansion in Southern and Eastern Europe as well as Turkey, and increases capacity in power exchange and battery optimization. Sale of Factlines In line with the strategy to reduce exposure to early-stage companies, Arendals Fossekompani sold Factlines to the leading Nordic ESG software and consulting player Position Green. As a result of the transaction, Arendals Fossekompani is now a minority shareholder in Position Green. Portfolio Highlights Volue: Continued strong development Revenues: 349 million kroner (281 million), up 24 % year-on-year. SaaS revenues: 150 million kroner, up 30 % from Q3 2024, and now account for 43 % of the total. Completed sale of the Infrastructure division to FSN Capital, completing the transformation into a pure-play energy and power grid software company. Gain: 1,8 billion kroner. ENRX: A challenging quarter Revenues: 31,2 million EUR (35,5 million). Operating profit: -0,9 million EUR (2,1 million). Order intake: 30,8 million EUR (34,1 million). Order backlog: 61 million EUR (77 million). ENRX continues to reduce costs and maintain strict capital discipline to adapt to the market cycle and improve profitability. NSSLGlobal: Growth in revenues and profit Revenues: 24,9 million GBP (23,7 million). Operating profit: 4,6 million GBP (4,1 million). Operating margin: 19 % (18 %). New contracts: 16,8 million GBP (9,1 million) across enterprise, government, and maritime sectors. Tekna: First quarter with positive EBITDA since IPO Revenues: 8,3 million CAD (7,6 million). Materials division: +28 % growth year-on-year. Order intake last 12 months: record high 32,5 million CAD. Adjusted EBITDA: +0,5 million CAD (-1,4 million). Cash flow from operations: -0,3 million CAD (-0,6 million). Cost reductions continue through 2025 and are expected to further strengthen profitability. AFK Hydropower: Low production partly compensated by higher prices Revenues: 59 million kroner (75 million). Production: 83,4 GWh (161,7 GWh). Average price NO2 area: 67 EUR/MWh (37,8 EUR/MWh). Lower reservoir levels than in 2024 have driven prices up in 2025. Solid financial position Arendals Fossekompani continues to have a strong financial position. As of 30. September, the parent company had 720 million kroner in cash, as well as undrawn credit facilities of 2 003 million kroner. Total available liquidity thus amounted to 2 723 million kroner. Net interest-bearing debt (NIBD), excluding shareholder loans, was 131 million kroner at quarter-end. "We remain focused on costs and profitability, while optimizing the portfolio for long-term value creation," says Golding. As an international group, Arendals Fossekompani is naturally exposed to currency movements. Revenues denominated in NOK in ENRX and NSSLGlobal were positively impacted by the weakened Norwegian Krone compared to the third quarter 2024. https://www.nordnet.no/market/news/86cc20f6-4b47-43ad-b85b-9213b4ed0312·19.11.2025 · MuokattuI have not studied Q3. See three challenges: AFK ebit is weak (Q2-3). Mini hype NSSL Global (250 employees) expects lower revenue/ebit in 2025 than last year, they wrote in Q2. ENRX (largest unit 1150 of 2400 employees) is under pressure due to decline in revenue and weak results.
- ·5.9.2025Owners of AFK, taken from E24 ULFOSS INVEST AS 26.27% HAVFONN AS 26.02% MUST INVEST AS 25.19% ARENDALS FOSSEKOMPANI ASA 1.88% FOLKETRYGDFONDET 1.36% SVANHILD OG ARNE MUST FOND FOR MED 1.17% FABULOUS AS 0.81% JOHANSEN PER-DIETRICH 0.67% FONDSFINANS PENSION FUND 0.64% FLØTEMARKEN AS 0.58% Other 15.41%·15.9.2025 · MuokattuHistorically (30 years) it has been Ulrichsen (Ulfoss) and Must who have managed AFK. How long Bergesen (Havfonn) has been there, I don't know. What is certain is that neither of them has given at today's level.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Oslo Børs
Määrä
Osto
658
Myynti
Määrä
200
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | - | - | ||
| 5 | - | - | ||
| 793 | - | - | ||
| 177 | - | - | ||
| 210 | - | - |
Ylin
152VWAP
Alin
150VaihtoMäärä
1,4 9 595
VWAP
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152Alin
150VaihtoMäärä
1,4 9 595
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Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: Quartr, FactSet| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 -tulosraportti | 13.2. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 -tulosraportti | 7.11.2025 | |
| 2025 Q2 -tulosraportti | 29.8.2025 | |
| 2025 Q1 -tulosraportti | 16.5.2025 | |
| 2024 Q4 -tulosraportti | 14.2.2025 | |
| 2024 Q3 -tulosraportti | 8.11.2024 |
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti
74 päivää sitten23 min
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: Quartr, FactSet| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 -tulosraportti | 13.2. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 -tulosraportti | 7.11.2025 | |
| 2025 Q2 -tulosraportti | 29.8.2025 | |
| 2025 Q1 -tulosraportti | 16.5.2025 | |
| 2024 Q4 -tulosraportti | 14.2.2025 | |
| 2024 Q3 -tulosraportti | 8.11.2024 |
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- 9.1. · Muokattu9.1. · MuokattuPRICE TARGET 318NOK The fundamental argument for Arendals Fossekompani as a "deep value" stock lies in its SOTP valuation. As of early 2026, the company’s market capitalization of approximately NOK 7.4 billion implies a massive discount to its Net Asset Value (NAV).2 This "pessimism" is likely a result of the group’s complex structure and its recent transition from quarterly to annual dividend announcements, which may have deterred some short-term income-oriented investors.1Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation FrameworkApplying conservative private m arket multiples to AFK’s subsidiaries reveals a stark disconnect from the current market price:AFK Vannkraft (100%): Norwegian hydropower assets are typically valued at NOK 20-30 million per GWh of annual production.17 At a conservative valuation of NOK 20m/GWh for its 500 GWh steady-state output, the hydropower segment alone is worth NOK 10 billion.Volue (40% stake): Based on its delisting valuation of NOK 6 billion and subsequent value-enhancing divestments (Infrastructure sale for 1.8bn), the current stake is conservatively worth NOK 2.4 billion to NOK 3.0 billion.19NSSLGlobal (80% stake): With a record GBP 19.2 million operating profit and GBP 21.5 million EBITDA, a 10x EBITDA multiple (common for high-margin defense tech) values the business at GBP 215 million (~NOK 3.0 billion).1 AFK’s stake is worth ~NOK 2.4 billion.Tekna (69.5% stake): Despite market cap fluctuations, Tekna’s leading position in plasma materials and its recent EBITDA pivot suggest a valuation far above its current book value. At its current market cap of ~NOK 800m, AFK’s stake is worth NOK 560 million.23Parent Liquidity and Cash: AFK maintains a flawless balance sheet with NOK 720 million in cash and NOK 2.0 billion in undrawn credit as of late 2025.1The aggregate value of just these core components—even excluding ENRX, Alytic, and the real estate holdings—exceeds NOK 16 billion. This suggests that AFK is currently trading at a 50% to 60% discount to its intrinsic NAV.Industrial ComponentEstimated Value (mNOK)Valuation BasisAFK Vannkraft10,000500 GWh @ 20m/GWhVolue (40%)2,400Delisting price + growthNSSLGlobal (80%)2,40010x EBITDAParent Cash (Net)7203Q 2025 reported cashTotal Core SOTP15,520Excludes ENRX, Tekna, PropertyMarket Sentiment vs. Operational RealityThe state of "maximum pessimism" in AFK’s valuation is further evidenced by its Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. As of early 2026, the group trades at a trailing TTM P/E of approximately 17.8x, which is below the European industrial industry average of 21x.3 However, this TTM P/E is heavily distorted by restructuring costs at Volue and R&D spending at Tekna.1 When looking at the parent company's profit profile, which includes massive one-time gains from the Volue restructuring, the "true" underlying earnings power of the group is far higher.1Furthermore, AFK’s price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.3x is incredibly low for a company that holds virtually all its assets at historical cost rather than fair market value.3 The hydropower plants, for example, have been depreciated over decades and are carried on the books at a fraction of their multi-billion NOK replacement value.1ESG Integration and the EU Taxonomy OpportunityArendals Fossekompani is uniquely positioned to benefit from the global pivot toward sustainable investing. The group has fully embraced the EU Taxonomy for sustainable activities, providing transparent reporting on its alignment with climate change mitigation and adaptation goals.1 In 2024, 99.8% of the turnover from the hydropower segment was aligned with the taxonomy, while other divisions like Volue and ENRX have a high percentage of "eligible" activities that enable the transition for their customers.1The group's transition plan, expected to be fully operational by 2026, includes decarbonization levers across all its subsidiaries.1 By setting science-based targets (SBTi) for its parent operations and requiring its portfolio companies to do the same, AFK is mitigating the regulatory and reputational risks associated with the energy transition.1 As institutional investors continue to shift capital toward ESG-aligned leaders, AFK’s profile as a "green industrial" investment platform provides a long-term re-rating catalyst that the market currently ignores.1Risk Management in a Deglobalizing WorldWhile the upside is considerable, AFK management remains focused on the "Operational risks" of a volatile global economy. The group updates its risk strategy annually, and in 2024, it explicitly prioritized "De-risking the portfolio" by divesting capital-intensive and subsidy-dependent models, such as the battery company Commeo and the renewable development firm Vergia.1The group's current portfolio is strategically aligned with the megatrend of "Deglobalization." As geopolitical tensions increase the need for reshoring and secure supply chains, Tekna’s advanced materials and NSSLGlobal’s secure communications become more valuable.·15.1. · MuokattuGood piece of work and solid bull analysis, is the author identical to the thread starter? (if yes, please disclose your connection to the company - is it e.g. a paid pump assignment?) NAV (regardless of the number) says nothing about fair marketcap - profitability is "the muscle". That e.g. a change in the payout time of a microscopic dividend means something for the interest, I disregard. Excerpt from 2025 outlook: (what has changed for 2026 and the years to come?) AFK Group revenue/ebit in 2025 is expected to be lower than in 2024. The portfolio companies have no growth/profitability to speak of in 2025. Of companies of a certain size, Volue/Tekna expect increased revenue/ebit, NSSL Global expects lower revenue/ebit than last year. ENRX (the largest unit) is under pressure due to a decline in revenue and weak results. = A small part of revenue comes from hydropower, without contributions from hydropower the company operates at a loss (adjusted for one-off sales gains).
- ·30.12.2025 · MuokattuQ3 multiples: EV 9.11 bn kr (7.5+1.64+1.53-1.56) Ebitda LTM 0.43 bn kr EV/ebitda LTM 21.2x - very expensive (normal ratio 8-12x). Nidb/ebitda LTM 0.6x - little debt. P/E LTM 156x (7500/48 mill nok) - OB's most expensive stock. (earnings adjusted for sales gain from Volue) Q3 operations: Loss (1) when adjusted for sales gain. Weak development in operating profit (LTM ebit is down from 13% to 3.9%)
- ·7.11.2025Third Quarter Results: Solid performance despite lower revenues Oslo Børs – 7. November 2025, Arendal Arendals Fossekompani ASA (OSE: AFK) reported revenues of 853 million kroner (909 million) and an operating profit (EBIT) of 33 million kroner (51 million) in the third quarter 2025. Ordinary profit after tax, but before minority interests, amounted to 733 million kroner (-25 million). The decrease in the group's revenues and operating profit compared to the previous year was due to challenging market conditions for ENRX and lower hydropower production. "Despite lower figures at group level, we see several solid performances in the portfolio companies. Volue delivered 24 % revenue growth year-on-year and a cash EBITDA margin of 19 %, NSSLGlobal reported growth in both revenues and profit, and Tekna delivered its first quarter with positive EBITDA since its IPO," says CEO Benjamin Golding. Tekna – important milestone In the quarter, Tekna delivered its first positive EBITDA quarter since its IPO. Revenues were 8,3 million CAD, corresponding to 9 % growth year-on-year. The growth was driven by a strong development in the Materials division, which increased revenues by 28 % year-on-year. "This is an important milestone for Tekna. As a long-term owner, we have great faith in the company's continued development and value creation potential," says Golding. After the quarter-end, the company announced a financing agreement with Scotiabank and a fully subscribed share issue of 300 million kroner. With this, Tekna's business plan until 2030 is fully financed. Volue – continued strong development Volue delivered solid growth and margin improvement. With an ARR growth of 22 % and a cash EBITDA margin of 19 %, the company delivered its second consecutive quarter as a "Rule-of-40" company. In the quarter, Volue completed the sale of its Infrastructure division to FSN Capital, which resulted in a recognized gain of 1,8 billion kroner. After the quarter-end, the company acquired smartPulse, which strengthens its expansion in Southern and Eastern Europe as well as Turkey, and increases capacity in power exchange and battery optimization. Sale of Factlines In line with the strategy to reduce exposure to early-stage companies, Arendals Fossekompani sold Factlines to the leading Nordic ESG software and consulting player Position Green. As a result of the transaction, Arendals Fossekompani is now a minority shareholder in Position Green. Portfolio Highlights Volue: Continued strong development Revenues: 349 million kroner (281 million), up 24 % year-on-year. SaaS revenues: 150 million kroner, up 30 % from Q3 2024, and now account for 43 % of the total. Completed sale of the Infrastructure division to FSN Capital, completing the transformation into a pure-play energy and power grid software company. Gain: 1,8 billion kroner. ENRX: A challenging quarter Revenues: 31,2 million EUR (35,5 million). Operating profit: -0,9 million EUR (2,1 million). Order intake: 30,8 million EUR (34,1 million). Order backlog: 61 million EUR (77 million). ENRX continues to reduce costs and maintain strict capital discipline to adapt to the market cycle and improve profitability. NSSLGlobal: Growth in revenues and profit Revenues: 24,9 million GBP (23,7 million). Operating profit: 4,6 million GBP (4,1 million). Operating margin: 19 % (18 %). New contracts: 16,8 million GBP (9,1 million) across enterprise, government, and maritime sectors. Tekna: First quarter with positive EBITDA since IPO Revenues: 8,3 million CAD (7,6 million). Materials division: +28 % growth year-on-year. Order intake last 12 months: record high 32,5 million CAD. Adjusted EBITDA: +0,5 million CAD (-1,4 million). Cash flow from operations: -0,3 million CAD (-0,6 million). Cost reductions continue through 2025 and are expected to further strengthen profitability. AFK Hydropower: Low production partly compensated by higher prices Revenues: 59 million kroner (75 million). Production: 83,4 GWh (161,7 GWh). Average price NO2 area: 67 EUR/MWh (37,8 EUR/MWh). Lower reservoir levels than in 2024 have driven prices up in 2025. Solid financial position Arendals Fossekompani continues to have a strong financial position. As of 30. September, the parent company had 720 million kroner in cash, as well as undrawn credit facilities of 2 003 million kroner. Total available liquidity thus amounted to 2 723 million kroner. Net interest-bearing debt (NIBD), excluding shareholder loans, was 131 million kroner at quarter-end. "We remain focused on costs and profitability, while optimizing the portfolio for long-term value creation," says Golding. As an international group, Arendals Fossekompani is naturally exposed to currency movements. Revenues denominated in NOK in ENRX and NSSLGlobal were positively impacted by the weakened Norwegian Krone compared to the third quarter 2024. https://www.nordnet.no/market/news/86cc20f6-4b47-43ad-b85b-9213b4ed0312·19.11.2025 · MuokattuI have not studied Q3. See three challenges: AFK ebit is weak (Q2-3). Mini hype NSSL Global (250 employees) expects lower revenue/ebit in 2025 than last year, they wrote in Q2. ENRX (largest unit 1150 of 2400 employees) is under pressure due to decline in revenue and weak results.
- ·5.9.2025Owners of AFK, taken from E24 ULFOSS INVEST AS 26.27% HAVFONN AS 26.02% MUST INVEST AS 25.19% ARENDALS FOSSEKOMPANI ASA 1.88% FOLKETRYGDFONDET 1.36% SVANHILD OG ARNE MUST FOND FOR MED 1.17% FABULOUS AS 0.81% JOHANSEN PER-DIETRICH 0.67% FONDSFINANS PENSION FUND 0.64% FLØTEMARKEN AS 0.58% Other 15.41%·15.9.2025 · MuokattuHistorically (30 years) it has been Ulrichsen (Ulfoss) and Must who have managed AFK. How long Bergesen (Havfonn) has been there, I don't know. What is certain is that neither of them has given at today's level.
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