Q3-osavuosiraportti
13 päivää sitten‧45 min
Tarjoustasot
Nasdaq Copenhagen
Määrä
Osto
97 212
Myynti
Määrä
97 725
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 162 | DDB | DDB | ||
| 2 | - | - | ||
| 310 | - | - | ||
| 463 | - | - | ||
| 106 | - | - |
Ylin
188,1VWAP
Alin
183,65VaihtoMäärä
51,4 275 727
VWAP
Ylin
188,1Alin
183,65VaihtoMäärä
51,4 275 727
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
Yhtiötapahtumat
| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
Sijoittajakalenteri ei ole saatavilla | |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3-osavuosiraportti | 14.11. | |
| 2025 Q2-osavuosiraportti | 26.8. | |
| 2025 Q2-osavuosiraportti | 22.8. | |
| 2025 Q1-osavuosiraportti | 9.5. | |
| 2024 Yhtiökokous | 9.4. |
Datan lähde: Millistream, Quartr
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Shareville
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Kirjaudu
·5 t sitten · MuokattuWill we see 200 before we go into the weekend :) :) And maybe 250 before the turn of the year :) :) That would be so nice with a small Christmas upward adjustment :) Then those funds can indeed run and jump :) :)
·2 t sittenThe company has lowered its guidance 2 times in 2025 and is balancing on the 3rd guidance cut. From where do you think there is a probability of an upward adjustment?
·1 päivä sittenWhat are the thoughts on the price from here? Is it perhaps worth buying?😉
·9 t sittenMust surely build on lower wacc and higher growth and margins- 22.11.22.11.I present my extensive Bavarian Nordic analysis: Most investors still see Bavarian Nordic as "the monkeypox stock"—a volatile government contractor that booms during a crisis and busts when the panic fades. They are looking at the rear-view mirror. Based on the Q3 2025 data we just received and the trajectory of the last 12 months, my assessment is that this company has fundamentally changed its metabolism. It is no longer just a biodefense lumpy play; it is transitioning into a high-margin, commercial travel vaccine compounder. Here is my mechanistic breakdown of the situation. 1. The Financial Mechanism: "Peace" vs. "Panic" Revenue To understand Bavarian’s health, you must mechanically separate its two revenue engines. They operate with different physics. Engine A: Public Preparedness (The "Panic" Business) Product: Jynneos/Imvanex (Smallpox/Mpox). Mechanism: This is high-margin but lumpy. It relies on government stockpiling cycles. Current Status (2025): We have seen a stabilization here. Revenue for the first 9 months of 2025 was DKK 2.3 billion, exceeding the expected "base business" of DKK 1.5–2.0 billion. Insight: The market treats this revenue as low-quality because it’s unpredictable. However, the mechanism of endemic Mpox (Clade Ib) means governments are moving from "panic buying" to "strategic stockpiling." This raises the floor of this segment. Engine B: Travel Health (The "Peace" Business) Products: Rabipur/RabAvert (Rabies), Encepur (Tick-Borne Encephalitis), and the newly launched Vimkunya (Chikungunya). Mechanism: This is a volume-driven, recurring revenue model. It benefits from operating leverage—once the manufacturing fixed costs are covered, every additional dose sold drops almost purely to the bottom line. Current Status (2025): This is the real story. Travel Health revenue grew 23% in the first 9 months of 2025. This is not a fluke; it follows 22% growth in 2024. The Compounder: This segment is now generating ~DKK 2.75 billion annually. It is becoming the dominant engine, which deserves a higher valuation multiple than a government contractor. 2. The Catalyst: VIMKUNYA (Chikungunya Vaccine) Here is why the approval of Vimkunya (Feb 2025) is significant, beyond just "new revenue." The Biology: Vimkunya is a Virus-Like Particle (VLP) vaccine. Unlike live-attenuated vaccines (which use a weakened live virus), a VLP mimics the outer structure of the virus to trigger an immune response without containing the infectious genetic material. The Investment Implication: Because it is a VLP, it has a favorable safety profile, which allowed for approval in adolescents (12+) and faster market uptake. Commercial Launch: As of Q3 2025, we are seeing early sales (~DKK 75M). This is a "land grab" phase. Bavarian Nordic is leveraging its existing commercial infrastructure (sales reps already selling Rabies shots to travel clinics) to push Chikungunya. This is synergy in its purest form—selling a second product to the same customer with zero additional customer acquisition cost. 3. Valuation and Financial Health Let’s look at the numbers as of late November 2025. Market Cap: ~DKK 14.8 Billion. 2025 Revenue Guidance: ~DKK 6.0 Billion. Cash Position: Significantly bolstered by the sale of the Priority Review Voucher (PRV) for DKK 810 million (net income). The Multiple Discrepancy: If we normalize the earnings (stripping out the one-time PRV sale), the company is trading at roughly 8x to 9x EV/EBITDA. Biodefense companies often trade at 6–8x (due to risk). Commercial Vaccine players (like GSK or Sanofi’s vaccine units) often command 12–15x. The Trap: The market is pricing BAVA as if it’s still 2022 (biodefense only). The Reality: By the end of 2025, nearly 50% of revenue is coming from the high-growth commercial travel segment. The Thesis: Multiple Expansion: As the Travel Health segment overtakes Public Preparedness as the primary revenue driver, the stock will re-rate from a "contractor multiple" to a "pharma compounder multiple." Free Cash Flow Yield: With the completion of the tech transfers for Rabipur and Encepur (manufacturing moving in-house), margins will expand further in 2026. The Floor: The government biodefense business acts as a cash cow that funds the growth of the commercial business. It limits downside risk. Key Risks (The "Bear Case"): Execution Risk: If the Chikungunya launch stalls or competitors (like Valneva) capture significant share, the growth narrative breaks. Currency: They report in DKK but sell in USD/EUR. A strengthening DKK against USD hurts earnings. Part two ->
·4 t sittenToxic boyfriend, a pleasure with a post like yours, really praise is due....🙂🙂 - ·19.11.Short d.13/11 - 0.75% Short d 19/11 - 1.45% Money is being bet on Bavarian's price to fall. Still think it's a shame that price 250 was not voted through.·1 päivä sittenShort increased 2 times today kl.11.13 to 2,01% kl.14.01 to 2,11% We have to go back to July before the takeover bid was made public before we have a similar short.
·17.11.It's actually not that difficult. Previously, one could buy cheap and sell expensive. One can do that again. Bavarian is incredibly cheap, if they just stick to the plan and realize what they guide - on the low side. If one looks at the number of shareholders, quite a few have jumped ship on Nordnet, during the acquisition, but I wonder if we won't see investors who smell an opportunity.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Uutiset ja analyysit
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Q3-osavuosiraportti
13 päivää sitten‧45 min
Uutiset ja analyysit
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
Kirjaudu
- ·5 t sitten · MuokattuWill we see 200 before we go into the weekend :) :) And maybe 250 before the turn of the year :) :) That would be so nice with a small Christmas upward adjustment :) Then those funds can indeed run and jump :) :)·2 t sittenThe company has lowered its guidance 2 times in 2025 and is balancing on the 3rd guidance cut. From where do you think there is a probability of an upward adjustment?
- ·1 päivä sittenWhat are the thoughts on the price from here? Is it perhaps worth buying?😉·9 t sittenMust surely build on lower wacc and higher growth and margins
- 22.11.22.11.I present my extensive Bavarian Nordic analysis: Most investors still see Bavarian Nordic as "the monkeypox stock"—a volatile government contractor that booms during a crisis and busts when the panic fades. They are looking at the rear-view mirror. Based on the Q3 2025 data we just received and the trajectory of the last 12 months, my assessment is that this company has fundamentally changed its metabolism. It is no longer just a biodefense lumpy play; it is transitioning into a high-margin, commercial travel vaccine compounder. Here is my mechanistic breakdown of the situation. 1. The Financial Mechanism: "Peace" vs. "Panic" Revenue To understand Bavarian’s health, you must mechanically separate its two revenue engines. They operate with different physics. Engine A: Public Preparedness (The "Panic" Business) Product: Jynneos/Imvanex (Smallpox/Mpox). Mechanism: This is high-margin but lumpy. It relies on government stockpiling cycles. Current Status (2025): We have seen a stabilization here. Revenue for the first 9 months of 2025 was DKK 2.3 billion, exceeding the expected "base business" of DKK 1.5–2.0 billion. Insight: The market treats this revenue as low-quality because it’s unpredictable. However, the mechanism of endemic Mpox (Clade Ib) means governments are moving from "panic buying" to "strategic stockpiling." This raises the floor of this segment. Engine B: Travel Health (The "Peace" Business) Products: Rabipur/RabAvert (Rabies), Encepur (Tick-Borne Encephalitis), and the newly launched Vimkunya (Chikungunya). Mechanism: This is a volume-driven, recurring revenue model. It benefits from operating leverage—once the manufacturing fixed costs are covered, every additional dose sold drops almost purely to the bottom line. Current Status (2025): This is the real story. Travel Health revenue grew 23% in the first 9 months of 2025. This is not a fluke; it follows 22% growth in 2024. The Compounder: This segment is now generating ~DKK 2.75 billion annually. It is becoming the dominant engine, which deserves a higher valuation multiple than a government contractor. 2. The Catalyst: VIMKUNYA (Chikungunya Vaccine) Here is why the approval of Vimkunya (Feb 2025) is significant, beyond just "new revenue." The Biology: Vimkunya is a Virus-Like Particle (VLP) vaccine. Unlike live-attenuated vaccines (which use a weakened live virus), a VLP mimics the outer structure of the virus to trigger an immune response without containing the infectious genetic material. The Investment Implication: Because it is a VLP, it has a favorable safety profile, which allowed for approval in adolescents (12+) and faster market uptake. Commercial Launch: As of Q3 2025, we are seeing early sales (~DKK 75M). This is a "land grab" phase. Bavarian Nordic is leveraging its existing commercial infrastructure (sales reps already selling Rabies shots to travel clinics) to push Chikungunya. This is synergy in its purest form—selling a second product to the same customer with zero additional customer acquisition cost. 3. Valuation and Financial Health Let’s look at the numbers as of late November 2025. Market Cap: ~DKK 14.8 Billion. 2025 Revenue Guidance: ~DKK 6.0 Billion. Cash Position: Significantly bolstered by the sale of the Priority Review Voucher (PRV) for DKK 810 million (net income). The Multiple Discrepancy: If we normalize the earnings (stripping out the one-time PRV sale), the company is trading at roughly 8x to 9x EV/EBITDA. Biodefense companies often trade at 6–8x (due to risk). Commercial Vaccine players (like GSK or Sanofi’s vaccine units) often command 12–15x. The Trap: The market is pricing BAVA as if it’s still 2022 (biodefense only). The Reality: By the end of 2025, nearly 50% of revenue is coming from the high-growth commercial travel segment. The Thesis: Multiple Expansion: As the Travel Health segment overtakes Public Preparedness as the primary revenue driver, the stock will re-rate from a "contractor multiple" to a "pharma compounder multiple." Free Cash Flow Yield: With the completion of the tech transfers for Rabipur and Encepur (manufacturing moving in-house), margins will expand further in 2026. The Floor: The government biodefense business acts as a cash cow that funds the growth of the commercial business. It limits downside risk. Key Risks (The "Bear Case"): Execution Risk: If the Chikungunya launch stalls or competitors (like Valneva) capture significant share, the growth narrative breaks. Currency: They report in DKK but sell in USD/EUR. A strengthening DKK against USD hurts earnings. Part two ->·4 t sittenToxic boyfriend, a pleasure with a post like yours, really praise is due....🙂🙂
- ·19.11.Short d.13/11 - 0.75% Short d 19/11 - 1.45% Money is being bet on Bavarian's price to fall. Still think it's a shame that price 250 was not voted through.·1 päivä sittenShort increased 2 times today kl.11.13 to 2,01% kl.14.01 to 2,11% We have to go back to July before the takeover bid was made public before we have a similar short.
- ·17.11.It's actually not that difficult. Previously, one could buy cheap and sell expensive. One can do that again. Bavarian is incredibly cheap, if they just stick to the plan and realize what they guide - on the low side. If one looks at the number of shareholders, quite a few have jumped ship on Nordnet, during the acquisition, but I wonder if we won't see investors who smell an opportunity.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Nasdaq Copenhagen
Määrä
Osto
97 212
Myynti
Määrä
97 725
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 162 | DDB | DDB | ||
| 2 | - | - | ||
| 310 | - | - | ||
| 463 | - | - | ||
| 106 | - | - |
Ylin
188,1VWAP
Alin
183,65VaihtoMäärä
51,4 275 727
VWAP
Ylin
188,1Alin
183,65VaihtoMäärä
51,4 275 727
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
Sijoittajakalenteri ei ole saatavilla | |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3-osavuosiraportti | 14.11. | |
| 2025 Q2-osavuosiraportti | 26.8. | |
| 2025 Q2-osavuosiraportti | 22.8. | |
| 2025 Q1-osavuosiraportti | 9.5. | |
| 2024 Yhtiökokous | 9.4. |
Datan lähde: Millistream, Quartr
Q3-osavuosiraportti
13 päivää sitten‧45 min
Uutiset ja analyysit
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Yhtiötapahtumat
| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
Sijoittajakalenteri ei ole saatavilla | |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3-osavuosiraportti | 14.11. | |
| 2025 Q2-osavuosiraportti | 26.8. | |
| 2025 Q2-osavuosiraportti | 22.8. | |
| 2025 Q1-osavuosiraportti | 9.5. | |
| 2024 Yhtiökokous | 9.4. |
Datan lähde: Millistream, Quartr
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
Kirjaudu
- ·5 t sitten · MuokattuWill we see 200 before we go into the weekend :) :) And maybe 250 before the turn of the year :) :) That would be so nice with a small Christmas upward adjustment :) Then those funds can indeed run and jump :) :)·2 t sittenThe company has lowered its guidance 2 times in 2025 and is balancing on the 3rd guidance cut. From where do you think there is a probability of an upward adjustment?
- ·1 päivä sittenWhat are the thoughts on the price from here? Is it perhaps worth buying?😉·9 t sittenMust surely build on lower wacc and higher growth and margins
- 22.11.22.11.I present my extensive Bavarian Nordic analysis: Most investors still see Bavarian Nordic as "the monkeypox stock"—a volatile government contractor that booms during a crisis and busts when the panic fades. They are looking at the rear-view mirror. Based on the Q3 2025 data we just received and the trajectory of the last 12 months, my assessment is that this company has fundamentally changed its metabolism. It is no longer just a biodefense lumpy play; it is transitioning into a high-margin, commercial travel vaccine compounder. Here is my mechanistic breakdown of the situation. 1. The Financial Mechanism: "Peace" vs. "Panic" Revenue To understand Bavarian’s health, you must mechanically separate its two revenue engines. They operate with different physics. Engine A: Public Preparedness (The "Panic" Business) Product: Jynneos/Imvanex (Smallpox/Mpox). Mechanism: This is high-margin but lumpy. It relies on government stockpiling cycles. Current Status (2025): We have seen a stabilization here. Revenue for the first 9 months of 2025 was DKK 2.3 billion, exceeding the expected "base business" of DKK 1.5–2.0 billion. Insight: The market treats this revenue as low-quality because it’s unpredictable. However, the mechanism of endemic Mpox (Clade Ib) means governments are moving from "panic buying" to "strategic stockpiling." This raises the floor of this segment. Engine B: Travel Health (The "Peace" Business) Products: Rabipur/RabAvert (Rabies), Encepur (Tick-Borne Encephalitis), and the newly launched Vimkunya (Chikungunya). Mechanism: This is a volume-driven, recurring revenue model. It benefits from operating leverage—once the manufacturing fixed costs are covered, every additional dose sold drops almost purely to the bottom line. Current Status (2025): This is the real story. Travel Health revenue grew 23% in the first 9 months of 2025. This is not a fluke; it follows 22% growth in 2024. The Compounder: This segment is now generating ~DKK 2.75 billion annually. It is becoming the dominant engine, which deserves a higher valuation multiple than a government contractor. 2. The Catalyst: VIMKUNYA (Chikungunya Vaccine) Here is why the approval of Vimkunya (Feb 2025) is significant, beyond just "new revenue." The Biology: Vimkunya is a Virus-Like Particle (VLP) vaccine. Unlike live-attenuated vaccines (which use a weakened live virus), a VLP mimics the outer structure of the virus to trigger an immune response without containing the infectious genetic material. The Investment Implication: Because it is a VLP, it has a favorable safety profile, which allowed for approval in adolescents (12+) and faster market uptake. Commercial Launch: As of Q3 2025, we are seeing early sales (~DKK 75M). This is a "land grab" phase. Bavarian Nordic is leveraging its existing commercial infrastructure (sales reps already selling Rabies shots to travel clinics) to push Chikungunya. This is synergy in its purest form—selling a second product to the same customer with zero additional customer acquisition cost. 3. Valuation and Financial Health Let’s look at the numbers as of late November 2025. Market Cap: ~DKK 14.8 Billion. 2025 Revenue Guidance: ~DKK 6.0 Billion. Cash Position: Significantly bolstered by the sale of the Priority Review Voucher (PRV) for DKK 810 million (net income). The Multiple Discrepancy: If we normalize the earnings (stripping out the one-time PRV sale), the company is trading at roughly 8x to 9x EV/EBITDA. Biodefense companies often trade at 6–8x (due to risk). Commercial Vaccine players (like GSK or Sanofi’s vaccine units) often command 12–15x. The Trap: The market is pricing BAVA as if it’s still 2022 (biodefense only). The Reality: By the end of 2025, nearly 50% of revenue is coming from the high-growth commercial travel segment. The Thesis: Multiple Expansion: As the Travel Health segment overtakes Public Preparedness as the primary revenue driver, the stock will re-rate from a "contractor multiple" to a "pharma compounder multiple." Free Cash Flow Yield: With the completion of the tech transfers for Rabipur and Encepur (manufacturing moving in-house), margins will expand further in 2026. The Floor: The government biodefense business acts as a cash cow that funds the growth of the commercial business. It limits downside risk. Key Risks (The "Bear Case"): Execution Risk: If the Chikungunya launch stalls or competitors (like Valneva) capture significant share, the growth narrative breaks. Currency: They report in DKK but sell in USD/EUR. A strengthening DKK against USD hurts earnings. Part two ->·4 t sittenToxic boyfriend, a pleasure with a post like yours, really praise is due....🙂🙂
- ·19.11.Short d.13/11 - 0.75% Short d 19/11 - 1.45% Money is being bet on Bavarian's price to fall. Still think it's a shame that price 250 was not voted through.·1 päivä sittenShort increased 2 times today kl.11.13 to 2,01% kl.14.01 to 2,11% We have to go back to July before the takeover bid was made public before we have a similar short.
- ·17.11.It's actually not that difficult. Previously, one could buy cheap and sell expensive. One can do that again. Bavarian is incredibly cheap, if they just stick to the plan and realize what they guide - on the low side. If one looks at the number of shareholders, quite a few have jumped ship on Nordnet, during the acquisition, but I wonder if we won't see investors who smell an opportunity.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Nasdaq Copenhagen
Määrä
Osto
97 212
Myynti
Määrä
97 725
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 162 | DDB | DDB | ||
| 2 | - | - | ||
| 310 | - | - | ||
| 463 | - | - | ||
| 106 | - | - |
Ylin
188,1VWAP
Alin
183,65VaihtoMäärä
51,4 275 727
VWAP
Ylin
188,1Alin
183,65VaihtoMäärä
51,4 275 727
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt