2025 Q3 -tulosraportti
65 päivää sitten29 min
0,0524 CAD/osake
Viimeisin osinko
10,79%Tuotto/v
Tarjoustasot
Nasdaq Stockholm
Määrä
Osto
39 239
Myynti
Määrä
44 289
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 877 | - | - | ||
| 864 | - | - | ||
| 20 | - | - | ||
| 38 | - | - | ||
| 86 | - | - |
Ylin
12,68VWAP
Alin
12,476VaihtoMäärä
6,5 512 836
VWAP
Ylin
12,68Alin
12,476VaihtoMäärä
6,5 512 836
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 -tulosraportti | 25.2. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 -tulosraportti | 17.11.2025 | |
| 2025 Q2 -tulosraportti | 14.8.2025 | |
| 2025 Q1 -tulosraportti | 16.5.2025 | |
| 2024 Q4 -tulosraportti | 28.2.2025 | |
| 2024 Q3 -tulosraportti | 15.11.2024 |
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
Kirjaudu
·15 t sittenConsidering taking a position here, but there isn't much info on the Nordnet page actually. No figures around revenue, only market value with financial statements and some positive price targets. Does anyone know how much they produce of various things? What is their average break-even? Is there further potential for an increase in production? How many reserves in the field bank do they have left to produce eventually?
12.1.12.1.Generational Dislocation in Meren Energy Price Target in (Base Case) 29,50kr The amalgamation with BTG Pactual Oil & Gas, completed on March 19, 2025, represents the single most transformative event in the company's history.5 By issuing 239,828,655 common shares, Meren consolidated the remaining 50 percent interest in Meren Coöperatief U.A. (previously Prime), effectively doubling its working interest production and reserves in Nigeria.5This transaction was more than a mere asset acquisition; it was a strategic alignment with the largest investment bank in Latin America. BTG Oil & Gas now holds a 35.5 percent cornerstone stake, providing Meren with sophisticated financial backing and a long-term institutional stability that is rare in the small-to-mid-cap energy space.5 The presence of BTG on the board of directors ensures a disciplined capital allocation framework focused on the three priorities of debt reduction, shareholder returns, and funded growth.5Structural Consolidation and Cash Flow ControlPrior to the amalgamation, Meren (as Africa Oil) functioned largely as a holding company, receiving periodic dividends from a joint venture over which it did not have full financial control. The new structure allows for the full consolidation of Meren Coop’s balance sheet and cash flows.5 This provides investors with unprecedented transparency and gives management direct access to the Nigerian "cash engine" to fund the development of the Orange Basin discoveries without needing further equity injections.5Pro Forma MetricAfrica Oil (Pre-Deal)Meren Energy (Post-Amalgamation)WI Production (boepd)~16,500~31,000 – 33,000Entitlement Production (boepd)~19,000~35,000 – 37,500Annual Base Dividend (USD)~$22 Million$100.3 MillionNet Debt / EBITDAXN/A0.4xNigerian Reserves (2P)~49 MMboe~98 MMboeSource: Analysis of March 2025 Pro Forma statements and Q3 2025 MD&A.5The Nigerian Engine: High Netbacks in a Deepwater SanctuaryThe bedrock of Meren’s valuation is its interest in three of the most prolific deepwater fields in the Niger Delta: Akpo, Egina, and Agbami. These assets are characterized by their high reliability, world-class operators (TotalEnergies and Chevron), and a favorable fiscal regime that has been optimized under the new Nigerian Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).5Operational Excellence and Infill SuccessMeren’s Nigerian portfolio is not a static asset base; it is actively managed to mitigate natural reservoir declines and maximize recovery. In the third quarter of 2025, the company achieved an average daily working interest production of 31,100 boepd and an entitlement production of 35,600 boepd.5 This performance was achieved despite several operational challenges, including gas export restrictions at the aging Nigeria LNG facility and seawater injection maintenance at the Agbami field.5The resilience of the production is driven by successful drilling and well intervention programs. At the Akpo field, new wells brought online in mid-2025 have outperformed expectations, while well interventions at Egina have maintained high production efficiency.5 The company and its partners have utilized a strategic break in the Akpo/Egina drilling campaign to interpret 4D seismic data, a critical process that allows for the precise placement of future infill wells to counter reservoir depletion.5The PIA Re-Rating: A Generational Fiscal TailwindsThe conversion of Meren’s Nigerian licenses to PIA terms has fundamentally altered the economics of the assets. By opting into the new regime, the company transitioned from the legacy Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT) to a more attractive CIT and royalty framework.5 The impact of this shift is twofold:Immediate Value: The conversion triggered a significant deferred tax release and established a stable fiscal roadmap for the next two decades.5License Longevity: The leases for PML 2 (Akpo), PML 3 (Egina), and PML 52 (Agbami) have been renewed for 20-year terms, ensuring that Meren remains the primary beneficiary of these high-margin barrels until 2043/2044.5The cash flow generation from this segment is robust. With opex/boe averaging $10.7 to $11.8 and realized oil prices often achieving a premium to Dated Brent (averaging $74.9/bbl for the first nine months of 2025), Meren’s netbacks are among the highest in the global independent E&P universe.5The Namibia Multiplier: Unlocking the Venus "Hidden Goldmine"If Nigeria is the engine of Meren’s current cash flow, Namibia is the rocket fuel for its future valuation. Meren holds an effective 3.8 percent indirect interest in Blocks 2912 and 2913B offshore Namibia through its 39.5 percent shareholding in Impact Oil and Gas.5 This position represents one of the most asymmetric value propositions in modern energy finance.Venus: A World-Class Tier 1 DiscoveryThe Venus discovery in the Orange Basin is a world-class asset by any measure. It was the largest oil discovery globally in 2022 and has fundamentally de-risked a new petroleum province that rivals the Gu- ·8.1.History Dosent Repeat Itself , but It Often Rhymes ... Meren Energy Analysis The image I am showing is the ultimate "contracyclical" dream for an investor. It illustrates that we are in a situation of maximum pessimism for the oil sector in relation to the rest of the stock market (S&P 500), just as it looked in 1999 before the oil price surged by 400 % over the coming decade. The stock stands today (December 2025) at approximately 11.88 kr. If history repeats itself according to your image, where the oil price explodes while the "end of the oil era" headlines prove to be incorrect, Meren Energy would undergo a complete value explosion. Here's what happens with Meren Energy in that scenario: 1. Operational leverage: From cash flow to "Windfall" Meren currently produces oil in Nigeria at a cost of approximately 11–12 USD per barrel. Today: At an oil price of 75 USD, they earn approximately 60 USD per barrel before tax. At a 400 % increase: If Brent were to repeat history and surge towards e.g. 200–250 USD, Meren's production cost would still remain at approx. 12 USD. The effect: The profit margin would more than double, but since fixed costs are already covered, free cash flow (FCF) would increase exponentially. Meren, which already generates over 220 million USD in free cash flow in nine months, would transform into a pure dividend machine. 2. The Namibia option goes from "lottery ticket" to "ATM" Meren owns 3.8 % in the Venus discovery in Namibia, where they are fully financed (carried) by TotalEnergies until production. Venus is estimated to contain billions of barrels. If the oil price surges, the value of these future reserves becomes astronomical. At today's price of 11.88 kr, you essentially get this option for free. In a scenario with a 400 % oil price increase, the market would be forced to price in Namibia with hundreds of percent in premium. 3. The debt side is zeroed and the dividend "moons" As of Q3 2025, Meren has extremely low indebtedness at 0.4x EBITDAX. In an oil price surge, the remaining debt of 330–360 million USD could be paid off in just a few months. Without debt and with record profits, the dividend (which already today yields approx. 12 % at 11.88 kr) could be raised dramatically. We are no longer talking about a yield of 12 %, but a yield on your purchase cost (Yield on Cost) that could reach 30–50 % per year. 4. Valuation multiples: From "Small Cap" to "Institutional Favorite" Your image shows that oil is historically cheap against SPX. Today, Meren trades at low multiples (EV/EBITDAX approx. 4.3x). If institutional capital starts rotating back to oil (like after 2000), multiples will expand. The upside: If the company goes from 4x to 8x EBITDA (industry average) while EBITDA triples due to the oil price, we see a scenario where the share price not only doubles, but could reach 70–100 kr (in line with the DCF valuation of 9.67 CAD mentioned earlier under more optimistic assumptions). Summary of "The Hat" analysis: If 2025 is "the new 1999" (as the image suggests): Triggers: FID for Venus 2026 and drilling in Akpo Far East will be the catalysts that light the fuse. Conclusion: At 11.88 kr, you buy a company with zero "survival risk" (thanks to cash flow and low debt) but with maximum "upside optionality". This is exactly how the world's best investors position themselves: they limit the downside and buy a free ticket to a historical
·7.1.Does anyone have a reasonable explanation why this company does not follow oil prices at all but has been riding a rollercoaster on its own track for a long time now. I can understand Enquest a bit better due to taxation from UK but Meren....?
·8.1.The decline on January 7 is probably due to Trump's statement that the USA will take over and invest in Venezuela's oil. It is believed that this will affect the oil price so that the price drops. However, Venezuelan oil is viscous and resource-intensive to extract; one must heat it with steam to get it up. This costs a lot of energy. It also has a high sulfur content, which is not good for the environment. Venezuela is an unstable country, and the pipelines for the oil are old, which increases the risk of oil leaks.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti
65 päivää sitten29 min
0,0524 CAD/osake
Viimeisin osinko
10,79%Tuotto/v
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
Kirjaudu
- ·15 t sittenConsidering taking a position here, but there isn't much info on the Nordnet page actually. No figures around revenue, only market value with financial statements and some positive price targets. Does anyone know how much they produce of various things? What is their average break-even? Is there further potential for an increase in production? How many reserves in the field bank do they have left to produce eventually?
- 12.1.12.1.Generational Dislocation in Meren Energy Price Target in (Base Case) 29,50kr The amalgamation with BTG Pactual Oil & Gas, completed on March 19, 2025, represents the single most transformative event in the company's history.5 By issuing 239,828,655 common shares, Meren consolidated the remaining 50 percent interest in Meren Coöperatief U.A. (previously Prime), effectively doubling its working interest production and reserves in Nigeria.5This transaction was more than a mere asset acquisition; it was a strategic alignment with the largest investment bank in Latin America. BTG Oil & Gas now holds a 35.5 percent cornerstone stake, providing Meren with sophisticated financial backing and a long-term institutional stability that is rare in the small-to-mid-cap energy space.5 The presence of BTG on the board of directors ensures a disciplined capital allocation framework focused on the three priorities of debt reduction, shareholder returns, and funded growth.5Structural Consolidation and Cash Flow ControlPrior to the amalgamation, Meren (as Africa Oil) functioned largely as a holding company, receiving periodic dividends from a joint venture over which it did not have full financial control. The new structure allows for the full consolidation of Meren Coop’s balance sheet and cash flows.5 This provides investors with unprecedented transparency and gives management direct access to the Nigerian "cash engine" to fund the development of the Orange Basin discoveries without needing further equity injections.5Pro Forma MetricAfrica Oil (Pre-Deal)Meren Energy (Post-Amalgamation)WI Production (boepd)~16,500~31,000 – 33,000Entitlement Production (boepd)~19,000~35,000 – 37,500Annual Base Dividend (USD)~$22 Million$100.3 MillionNet Debt / EBITDAXN/A0.4xNigerian Reserves (2P)~49 MMboe~98 MMboeSource: Analysis of March 2025 Pro Forma statements and Q3 2025 MD&A.5The Nigerian Engine: High Netbacks in a Deepwater SanctuaryThe bedrock of Meren’s valuation is its interest in three of the most prolific deepwater fields in the Niger Delta: Akpo, Egina, and Agbami. These assets are characterized by their high reliability, world-class operators (TotalEnergies and Chevron), and a favorable fiscal regime that has been optimized under the new Nigerian Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).5Operational Excellence and Infill SuccessMeren’s Nigerian portfolio is not a static asset base; it is actively managed to mitigate natural reservoir declines and maximize recovery. In the third quarter of 2025, the company achieved an average daily working interest production of 31,100 boepd and an entitlement production of 35,600 boepd.5 This performance was achieved despite several operational challenges, including gas export restrictions at the aging Nigeria LNG facility and seawater injection maintenance at the Agbami field.5The resilience of the production is driven by successful drilling and well intervention programs. At the Akpo field, new wells brought online in mid-2025 have outperformed expectations, while well interventions at Egina have maintained high production efficiency.5 The company and its partners have utilized a strategic break in the Akpo/Egina drilling campaign to interpret 4D seismic data, a critical process that allows for the precise placement of future infill wells to counter reservoir depletion.5The PIA Re-Rating: A Generational Fiscal TailwindsThe conversion of Meren’s Nigerian licenses to PIA terms has fundamentally altered the economics of the assets. By opting into the new regime, the company transitioned from the legacy Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT) to a more attractive CIT and royalty framework.5 The impact of this shift is twofold:Immediate Value: The conversion triggered a significant deferred tax release and established a stable fiscal roadmap for the next two decades.5License Longevity: The leases for PML 2 (Akpo), PML 3 (Egina), and PML 52 (Agbami) have been renewed for 20-year terms, ensuring that Meren remains the primary beneficiary of these high-margin barrels until 2043/2044.5The cash flow generation from this segment is robust. With opex/boe averaging $10.7 to $11.8 and realized oil prices often achieving a premium to Dated Brent (averaging $74.9/bbl for the first nine months of 2025), Meren’s netbacks are among the highest in the global independent E&P universe.5The Namibia Multiplier: Unlocking the Venus "Hidden Goldmine"If Nigeria is the engine of Meren’s current cash flow, Namibia is the rocket fuel for its future valuation. Meren holds an effective 3.8 percent indirect interest in Blocks 2912 and 2913B offshore Namibia through its 39.5 percent shareholding in Impact Oil and Gas.5 This position represents one of the most asymmetric value propositions in modern energy finance.Venus: A World-Class Tier 1 DiscoveryThe Venus discovery in the Orange Basin is a world-class asset by any measure. It was the largest oil discovery globally in 2022 and has fundamentally de-risked a new petroleum province that rivals the Gu
- ·8.1.History Dosent Repeat Itself , but It Often Rhymes ... Meren Energy Analysis The image I am showing is the ultimate "contracyclical" dream for an investor. It illustrates that we are in a situation of maximum pessimism for the oil sector in relation to the rest of the stock market (S&P 500), just as it looked in 1999 before the oil price surged by 400 % over the coming decade. The stock stands today (December 2025) at approximately 11.88 kr. If history repeats itself according to your image, where the oil price explodes while the "end of the oil era" headlines prove to be incorrect, Meren Energy would undergo a complete value explosion. Here's what happens with Meren Energy in that scenario: 1. Operational leverage: From cash flow to "Windfall" Meren currently produces oil in Nigeria at a cost of approximately 11–12 USD per barrel. Today: At an oil price of 75 USD, they earn approximately 60 USD per barrel before tax. At a 400 % increase: If Brent were to repeat history and surge towards e.g. 200–250 USD, Meren's production cost would still remain at approx. 12 USD. The effect: The profit margin would more than double, but since fixed costs are already covered, free cash flow (FCF) would increase exponentially. Meren, which already generates over 220 million USD in free cash flow in nine months, would transform into a pure dividend machine. 2. The Namibia option goes from "lottery ticket" to "ATM" Meren owns 3.8 % in the Venus discovery in Namibia, where they are fully financed (carried) by TotalEnergies until production. Venus is estimated to contain billions of barrels. If the oil price surges, the value of these future reserves becomes astronomical. At today's price of 11.88 kr, you essentially get this option for free. In a scenario with a 400 % oil price increase, the market would be forced to price in Namibia with hundreds of percent in premium. 3. The debt side is zeroed and the dividend "moons" As of Q3 2025, Meren has extremely low indebtedness at 0.4x EBITDAX. In an oil price surge, the remaining debt of 330–360 million USD could be paid off in just a few months. Without debt and with record profits, the dividend (which already today yields approx. 12 % at 11.88 kr) could be raised dramatically. We are no longer talking about a yield of 12 %, but a yield on your purchase cost (Yield on Cost) that could reach 30–50 % per year. 4. Valuation multiples: From "Small Cap" to "Institutional Favorite" Your image shows that oil is historically cheap against SPX. Today, Meren trades at low multiples (EV/EBITDAX approx. 4.3x). If institutional capital starts rotating back to oil (like after 2000), multiples will expand. The upside: If the company goes from 4x to 8x EBITDA (industry average) while EBITDA triples due to the oil price, we see a scenario where the share price not only doubles, but could reach 70–100 kr (in line with the DCF valuation of 9.67 CAD mentioned earlier under more optimistic assumptions). Summary of "The Hat" analysis: If 2025 is "the new 1999" (as the image suggests): Triggers: FID for Venus 2026 and drilling in Akpo Far East will be the catalysts that light the fuse. Conclusion: At 11.88 kr, you buy a company with zero "survival risk" (thanks to cash flow and low debt) but with maximum "upside optionality". This is exactly how the world's best investors position themselves: they limit the downside and buy a free ticket to a historical
- ·7.1.Does anyone have a reasonable explanation why this company does not follow oil prices at all but has been riding a rollercoaster on its own track for a long time now. I can understand Enquest a bit better due to taxation from UK but Meren....?·8.1.The decline on January 7 is probably due to Trump's statement that the USA will take over and invest in Venezuela's oil. It is believed that this will affect the oil price so that the price drops. However, Venezuelan oil is viscous and resource-intensive to extract; one must heat it with steam to get it up. This costs a lot of energy. It also has a high sulfur content, which is not good for the environment. Venezuela is an unstable country, and the pipelines for the oil are old, which increases the risk of oil leaks.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Nasdaq Stockholm
Määrä
Osto
39 239
Myynti
Määrä
44 289
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 877 | - | - | ||
| 864 | - | - | ||
| 20 | - | - | ||
| 38 | - | - | ||
| 86 | - | - |
Ylin
12,68VWAP
Alin
12,476VaihtoMäärä
6,5 512 836
VWAP
Ylin
12,68Alin
12,476VaihtoMäärä
6,5 512 836
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 -tulosraportti | 25.2. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 -tulosraportti | 17.11.2025 | |
| 2025 Q2 -tulosraportti | 14.8.2025 | |
| 2025 Q1 -tulosraportti | 16.5.2025 | |
| 2024 Q4 -tulosraportti | 28.2.2025 | |
| 2024 Q3 -tulosraportti | 15.11.2024 |
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti
65 päivää sitten29 min
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 -tulosraportti | 25.2. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 -tulosraportti | 17.11.2025 | |
| 2025 Q2 -tulosraportti | 14.8.2025 | |
| 2025 Q1 -tulosraportti | 16.5.2025 | |
| 2024 Q4 -tulosraportti | 28.2.2025 | |
| 2024 Q3 -tulosraportti | 15.11.2024 |
0,0524 CAD/osake
Viimeisin osinko
10,79%Tuotto/v
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
Kirjaudu
- ·15 t sittenConsidering taking a position here, but there isn't much info on the Nordnet page actually. No figures around revenue, only market value with financial statements and some positive price targets. Does anyone know how much they produce of various things? What is their average break-even? Is there further potential for an increase in production? How many reserves in the field bank do they have left to produce eventually?
- 12.1.12.1.Generational Dislocation in Meren Energy Price Target in (Base Case) 29,50kr The amalgamation with BTG Pactual Oil & Gas, completed on March 19, 2025, represents the single most transformative event in the company's history.5 By issuing 239,828,655 common shares, Meren consolidated the remaining 50 percent interest in Meren Coöperatief U.A. (previously Prime), effectively doubling its working interest production and reserves in Nigeria.5This transaction was more than a mere asset acquisition; it was a strategic alignment with the largest investment bank in Latin America. BTG Oil & Gas now holds a 35.5 percent cornerstone stake, providing Meren with sophisticated financial backing and a long-term institutional stability that is rare in the small-to-mid-cap energy space.5 The presence of BTG on the board of directors ensures a disciplined capital allocation framework focused on the three priorities of debt reduction, shareholder returns, and funded growth.5Structural Consolidation and Cash Flow ControlPrior to the amalgamation, Meren (as Africa Oil) functioned largely as a holding company, receiving periodic dividends from a joint venture over which it did not have full financial control. The new structure allows for the full consolidation of Meren Coop’s balance sheet and cash flows.5 This provides investors with unprecedented transparency and gives management direct access to the Nigerian "cash engine" to fund the development of the Orange Basin discoveries without needing further equity injections.5Pro Forma MetricAfrica Oil (Pre-Deal)Meren Energy (Post-Amalgamation)WI Production (boepd)~16,500~31,000 – 33,000Entitlement Production (boepd)~19,000~35,000 – 37,500Annual Base Dividend (USD)~$22 Million$100.3 MillionNet Debt / EBITDAXN/A0.4xNigerian Reserves (2P)~49 MMboe~98 MMboeSource: Analysis of March 2025 Pro Forma statements and Q3 2025 MD&A.5The Nigerian Engine: High Netbacks in a Deepwater SanctuaryThe bedrock of Meren’s valuation is its interest in three of the most prolific deepwater fields in the Niger Delta: Akpo, Egina, and Agbami. These assets are characterized by their high reliability, world-class operators (TotalEnergies and Chevron), and a favorable fiscal regime that has been optimized under the new Nigerian Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).5Operational Excellence and Infill SuccessMeren’s Nigerian portfolio is not a static asset base; it is actively managed to mitigate natural reservoir declines and maximize recovery. In the third quarter of 2025, the company achieved an average daily working interest production of 31,100 boepd and an entitlement production of 35,600 boepd.5 This performance was achieved despite several operational challenges, including gas export restrictions at the aging Nigeria LNG facility and seawater injection maintenance at the Agbami field.5The resilience of the production is driven by successful drilling and well intervention programs. At the Akpo field, new wells brought online in mid-2025 have outperformed expectations, while well interventions at Egina have maintained high production efficiency.5 The company and its partners have utilized a strategic break in the Akpo/Egina drilling campaign to interpret 4D seismic data, a critical process that allows for the precise placement of future infill wells to counter reservoir depletion.5The PIA Re-Rating: A Generational Fiscal TailwindsThe conversion of Meren’s Nigerian licenses to PIA terms has fundamentally altered the economics of the assets. By opting into the new regime, the company transitioned from the legacy Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT) to a more attractive CIT and royalty framework.5 The impact of this shift is twofold:Immediate Value: The conversion triggered a significant deferred tax release and established a stable fiscal roadmap for the next two decades.5License Longevity: The leases for PML 2 (Akpo), PML 3 (Egina), and PML 52 (Agbami) have been renewed for 20-year terms, ensuring that Meren remains the primary beneficiary of these high-margin barrels until 2043/2044.5The cash flow generation from this segment is robust. With opex/boe averaging $10.7 to $11.8 and realized oil prices often achieving a premium to Dated Brent (averaging $74.9/bbl for the first nine months of 2025), Meren’s netbacks are among the highest in the global independent E&P universe.5The Namibia Multiplier: Unlocking the Venus "Hidden Goldmine"If Nigeria is the engine of Meren’s current cash flow, Namibia is the rocket fuel for its future valuation. Meren holds an effective 3.8 percent indirect interest in Blocks 2912 and 2913B offshore Namibia through its 39.5 percent shareholding in Impact Oil and Gas.5 This position represents one of the most asymmetric value propositions in modern energy finance.Venus: A World-Class Tier 1 DiscoveryThe Venus discovery in the Orange Basin is a world-class asset by any measure. It was the largest oil discovery globally in 2022 and has fundamentally de-risked a new petroleum province that rivals the Gu
- ·8.1.History Dosent Repeat Itself , but It Often Rhymes ... Meren Energy Analysis The image I am showing is the ultimate "contracyclical" dream for an investor. It illustrates that we are in a situation of maximum pessimism for the oil sector in relation to the rest of the stock market (S&P 500), just as it looked in 1999 before the oil price surged by 400 % over the coming decade. The stock stands today (December 2025) at approximately 11.88 kr. If history repeats itself according to your image, where the oil price explodes while the "end of the oil era" headlines prove to be incorrect, Meren Energy would undergo a complete value explosion. Here's what happens with Meren Energy in that scenario: 1. Operational leverage: From cash flow to "Windfall" Meren currently produces oil in Nigeria at a cost of approximately 11–12 USD per barrel. Today: At an oil price of 75 USD, they earn approximately 60 USD per barrel before tax. At a 400 % increase: If Brent were to repeat history and surge towards e.g. 200–250 USD, Meren's production cost would still remain at approx. 12 USD. The effect: The profit margin would more than double, but since fixed costs are already covered, free cash flow (FCF) would increase exponentially. Meren, which already generates over 220 million USD in free cash flow in nine months, would transform into a pure dividend machine. 2. The Namibia option goes from "lottery ticket" to "ATM" Meren owns 3.8 % in the Venus discovery in Namibia, where they are fully financed (carried) by TotalEnergies until production. Venus is estimated to contain billions of barrels. If the oil price surges, the value of these future reserves becomes astronomical. At today's price of 11.88 kr, you essentially get this option for free. In a scenario with a 400 % oil price increase, the market would be forced to price in Namibia with hundreds of percent in premium. 3. The debt side is zeroed and the dividend "moons" As of Q3 2025, Meren has extremely low indebtedness at 0.4x EBITDAX. In an oil price surge, the remaining debt of 330–360 million USD could be paid off in just a few months. Without debt and with record profits, the dividend (which already today yields approx. 12 % at 11.88 kr) could be raised dramatically. We are no longer talking about a yield of 12 %, but a yield on your purchase cost (Yield on Cost) that could reach 30–50 % per year. 4. Valuation multiples: From "Small Cap" to "Institutional Favorite" Your image shows that oil is historically cheap against SPX. Today, Meren trades at low multiples (EV/EBITDAX approx. 4.3x). If institutional capital starts rotating back to oil (like after 2000), multiples will expand. The upside: If the company goes from 4x to 8x EBITDA (industry average) while EBITDA triples due to the oil price, we see a scenario where the share price not only doubles, but could reach 70–100 kr (in line with the DCF valuation of 9.67 CAD mentioned earlier under more optimistic assumptions). Summary of "The Hat" analysis: If 2025 is "the new 1999" (as the image suggests): Triggers: FID for Venus 2026 and drilling in Akpo Far East will be the catalysts that light the fuse. Conclusion: At 11.88 kr, you buy a company with zero "survival risk" (thanks to cash flow and low debt) but with maximum "upside optionality". This is exactly how the world's best investors position themselves: they limit the downside and buy a free ticket to a historical
- ·7.1.Does anyone have a reasonable explanation why this company does not follow oil prices at all but has been riding a rollercoaster on its own track for a long time now. I can understand Enquest a bit better due to taxation from UK but Meren....?·8.1.The decline on January 7 is probably due to Trump's statement that the USA will take over and invest in Venezuela's oil. It is believed that this will affect the oil price so that the price drops. However, Venezuelan oil is viscous and resource-intensive to extract; one must heat it with steam to get it up. This costs a lot of energy. It also has a high sulfur content, which is not good for the environment. Venezuela is an unstable country, and the pipelines for the oil are old, which increases the risk of oil leaks.
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