2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
31 päivää sitten
‧59 min
0,0371 USD/osake
Viimeisin osinko
9,17%Tuotto/v
Tarjoustasot
Toronto Stock Exchange
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Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 15.5. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 25.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 17.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 14.8.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 16.5.2025 | ||
2024 Q4 -tulosraportti 28.2.2025 |
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Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
Kirjaudu
·2 päivää sittenMEREN ANALYSIS (Updated with today's prices + focus on gas, which is now 32 % of WI production, double-checked against the 2025 annual report...The market is truly in a deep coma when it comes to Meren Energy... the numbers don't lie. Brent Jun-26 is at 94,53 USD right now. At the same time, Meren secured the historic gas agreement for PML 2/3 (Akpo/Egina) in early 2026 – exactly as stated in the annual report (MD&A page 6 and 85).Gas is 32 % of WI production (2026-guidance, WI-basis) and has gone from being a byproduct to being a pure profit machine. The company is still trading at valuations we only see in companies close to bankruptcy. Meren is the exact opposite: an extreme cash flow machine with one of the industry's strongest balance sheets (net debt/EBITDAX only 0,4x at year-end 2025). Here's why the upside is now approaching OVER +200 % – with gas as the single largest driver. 1. The hidden leverage: Oil at $94,5 + The Gas-boost (32 % of production)Meren has extreme operational leverage that the market has not priced in:Oil: For every $10 increase in Brent, EBITDAX rises by approx. $35 million (consistent with history and guidance). From base case $70 to today's $94,5 = pure profit increase of ~$85–90 million that is not visible in the old figures.The Gas-boost (32 % of WI production): The annual report confirms in black and white (MD&A page 6 & 85):”In early 2026, Meren and its JV Parties in PML 2/3 successfully executed an amendment to the gas sales agreement that includes a revised index for gas pricing, locking in a long-term gas price that is more reflective of the current LNG economics compared to 2018… The amendment also includes a mechanism for the sellers to recover the historical difference… starting from 2020… recovered through an upward adjustment to the netback pricing.”These are two separate effects that both directly impact cash flow :New higher prices for all future gas (LNG-indexed – significantly higher margin per unit than the old 2018 index).Catch-up / retroactive repayment from 2020 – historical difference is paid back as an upward adjustment on future gas sales (in practice, free money spread over future volumes) .Volumes: 19,7 Bcf gas sold in 2025 (up from 17,4 Bcf in 2024). 2026-guidance: 32 % gas on WI-basis.Gas is therefore no longer a byproduct – it is 32 % of the company's total output and now suddenly extremely profitable. 2. Multiples that defy logic (with gas-boost included)At $94,5 Brent + gas-reset (32 % of production), Meren becomes ridiculously cheap compared to peers:Key figuresMeren ($94,5 Brent + gas-reset)Seplat EnergySector averageEV / EBITDAX1,9–2,2x6,5x6,0xP/E (Forward)4,5–5,5x11,0x12,0xFCF Yield﹥30 %~12 %11 %Dividend Yield~10 % + buybacks5 %5 %Conclusion: If the multiple normalizes to just half of the sector average → the stock doubles from here. The 32 % share of gas makes the leverage even stronger than oil alone. 3. Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) – Now with gas as a separate value componentAt $94,5 oil and revised gas prices (confirmed in the report), NPV10 becomes significantly higher:Updated valuation (CAD per share): AssetValue per share (CAD)Comment (directly from the annual report)Nigeria – Oil ($94,5)3,80Base production + high marginsNigeria – Gas (32 % WI + Reset + catch-up)1,20NEW: Higher LNG prices + retroactive mechanism (MD&A page 6/85) – previously 0,90Namibia – Venus field (full carry)1,50FID 2026, no capex for MerenCash + other exploration0,30Net debt 0,4x EBITDAXTOTAL JUSTIFIED VALUE6,80 CAD+220 % from today's ~2,12 CADWhy the gas value is raised to 1,20 CAD/share: 32 % of production gets both permanently higher margins AND the catch-up mechanism. The market has not priced in either part yet. You buy Nigeria's cash flow (oil + gas) for less than half price – and get Namibia's world-class discovery for free.4. Catalysts – Why it will explode soonDividend & buybacks: Q1-2026 dividend already declared: $25,1 million (~$0,037/share). At $94,5 oil + gas-boost (32 % of volume), there is room for both extra dividends and aggressive buybacks.Namibia FID 2026: Venus revalues the entire company from a "Nigeria-play" to a global growth stock (ESIA complete, FEED ongoing).BTG Pactual (35,5 % owner): Will never accept 2x EBITDAX for a company drowning in cash from both oil and gas.Conclusion: The ultimate asymmetry – now with gas as a turbo There are two ways to make money on the stock market: be right about the future, or buy the present at an absurd bargain price. Meren gives you both – and gas (32 % of production) is the part the market has completely missed .At $94,5 Brent + gas-reset, the company generates so much cash that they can buy back the entire market capitalization in under 3 years – while you get a free ticket to Namibia's oil boom. Bear Case ($60 oil, old gas price): 3,20 CAD (+50 %)Base Case ($90 oil + Gas-reset 32 %): 5,80 CAD (+174 %)Bull Case ($100+ oil
3 päivää sitten3 päivää sittenI sold out. Their production is 70-100% hedged, meaning they Will receive far less than other oil companies but pay royalties for the current high Brent price.·20 t sittenI have found it, yes, but they don't seem to state how much. How does it look for Touthstone exploration?- ·27.2.Is Meren Energy the cheapest Oil Company in the world ??... 200% Upside (Analysis) Hello everyone, After thoroughly reviewing the E&P (Exploration & Production) sector, I want to share an analysis of Meren Energy. There are rarely occasions when the market prices assets as incorrectly as right now. Meren is a classic case of "buy cash flows that the market distrusts and get growth options for free". Here is a review of why I believe Meren is extremely undervalued compared to peers, based on multiples, SOTP (Sum-of-the-Parts) and cash flow analysis. 1. MULTIPLES – A comparison with global peers The market values Meren as a company in crisis, but the balance sheet is one of the industry's strongest. Here's how Meren trades compared to the sector EV / EBITDAX (2025/2026E) Meren Energy: 2.8x Seplat Energy (Peer): 6.5x Sector average (Mid-cap E&P): 5.5x – 7.0x P / E (Forward) Meren Energy: 6.8x – 8.8x Sector average: 12.0x Free Cash Flow Yield Meren Energy: ﹥25 % Sector average: 10 – 12 % Net Debt / EBITDAX Meren Energy: 0.4x (Very low debt) Sector average: 1.5x Dividend Yield Meren Energy: ~9.5 % Sector average: 4 – 6 % Meren trades at an EV/EBITDAX of 2.8x. TOTALLY INSANE This "Nigeria discount" is hard to justify as Meren's assets are offshore and operated by supermajors like Chevron and TotalEnergies, which significantly reduces operational risk compared to land-based production. 2. SUM-OF-THE-PARTS (SOTP) – What are you actually buying? An SOTP analysis shows that today you are buying the core business at a discount and getting the explosive assets for free. A. The Core: Nigeria (Production & Reserves) The 2025 financial statements determined the after-tax NPV(10) for 2P reserves in Nigeria to be 1,499 million USD. Value per share (Nigeria 2P only): ~ (approx. 3.15 CAD) Today's share price: approx. 2.12 CAD Conclusion: At the current price, you buy the Nigerian production at a 28 % discount and get Namibia, South Africa and Equatorial Guinea completely for free. B. The Jewel: Namibia (Venus discovery) The Venus field in the Orange Basin is one of the largest global discoveries in 20 years (approx. 3 billion barrels). Wood Mackenzie values the field at approximately 15 billion USD. Meren's indirect share: 3.8 % (via 39.5 % ownership in Impact Oil & Gas) Structure: Meren is "fully carried" (TotalEnergies pays everything until production). Value per share (Carried NPV): approx. 0.84 USD (approx. 1.20 CAD) C. SOTP Summary (CAD per share) Nigeria 2P NPV10: 3.15 CAD (Base Case) Namibia (Venus Option): 1.20 CAD (Base Case) South Africa & EG (Exploration): 0.25 CAD Net Debt/Cash (Adjustment): -0.20 CAD Total Justified Value: 4.40 CAD Upside : +93 % (Base Case) In a bull-case scenario where Namibia is discounted more aggressively, the value can reach 6.10 CAD (+168 % upside). 3. CASH FLOW ANALYSIS & RETURN Meren generated an operating cash flow of 261.8 million USD in 2025. With a net investment rate (Capex) of approximately 100 million USD, this leaves enormous room for shareholder returns. Capital allocation model: Base dividend: 100 million USD/year (approx. 0.15 USD per share). NCIB (Buyback): The company has a mandate to buy back up to 5 % of outstanding shares. Leverage effect: For every 10 USD increase in the Brent price, Meren's EBITDAX increases by approximately 35 million USD. At an oil price level of 70 USD/bbl, the company trades at a Free Cash Flow Yield of over 25 %. Theoretically, the company can buy back its entire self in four years solely with its own cash flows. TOTALLY INSANE 4. CATALYSTS FOR REVALUATION (2026-2027) Why will the market wake up now? Namibia FID (Mid-2026): A final investment decision for Venus will force analysts to include the project in their DCF models rather than as a speculative option. Nigeria Gas-reset: The new price indexation for gas (PML 2/3) and the recovery of historical claims from 2020 provide a significant cash flow boost in 2026. BTG Pactual's influence: As a cornerstone owner (35.5 %), BTG will likely push for a more aggressive capital allocation or a structural deal if the discount persists. 5. SCENARIO ANALYSIS – UPSIDE AT DIFFERENT VALUATIONS Bear Case (Nigeria production only) Assumption: Oil price 60 USD, no valuation of Namibia. Justified value: 3.00 CAD Upside: +38 % Base Case (Namibia starts to be discounted) Assumption: Oil price 70 USD, multiple 5.0x, Namibia valued at 1.20 CAD. Justified value: 4.40 CAD Upside: +98 % Bull Case (Full revaluation) Assumption: Oil price 80+ USD, multiple 6.5x (Seplat level), Namibia valued at 2.00 CAD. Justified value: 6.10 CAD Upside: +178 % CONCLUSION When we summarize all scenarios, we see an asymmetry rarely seen in efficient markets. The Bear Case provides an upside of 32 % solely on existing production. The Base Case, where Namibia starts to be discounted correctly, provides almost 100 % upside. Meren Energy is not a "lottery ticket". It is a cash flow strong production company with a free option on the world's most exciting oil province. For those who understand the fundamentals, this is in
- ·19.2.Oil the Trade of the Decade ? $200 Oil needed to restore balance !?!? So the question is Oil the Trade of the Decade? Short .... YES but let me explain (ATTACHED) Meren EnergyLet's start with the Gold-to-Oil Ratio. For the uninitiated, it sounds like a niche data point, but for those who understand history and statistics, this is right now the most screaming signal in the market !!!1. So what are we actually seeing?Gold has served as humanity's honest money for over 5,000 years. Oil has powered our modern civilization for the last 150. The relationship between them tells you how much energy you can buy for your money.Right now, the ratio is trading a full 9 standard deviations (9 sigma) above its historical average !!!Statistical context: In a normal distribution, the probability of a 3-sigma event is 0.3%. A 9-sigma event is statistically something that "shouldn't happen" during the lifetime of the universe. Yet here we are. The last time we saw similar extremes was during the total lockdown in 2020.2. Gold at $5,000 – but where is the energy?With gold prices recently testing levels around $5,000/oz, the market signals enormous uncertainty and monetary inflation. But oil isn't keeping up... If we are to return to a historical average (a so-called mean reversion), it means that oil must perform +250% better than gold.If gold just stands still: Then oil only needs to trade north of $200 per barrel to restore balance.Conclusion: So either the world is heading into permanent energy poverty where oil never becomes valuable again (very unlikely when you check what all new reports say about peak demand), or energy is currently the most undervalued asset on the planet !!! Which makes companies like Chevron , Meren Energy VERY INTERESTING3. "The Opportunity"Buying oil (or energy companies) in this situation is not about "guessing the price next week". It's about betting that physical reality (energy) must eventually catch up with monetary reflection (gold).So the bottom line: Gold has preserved its purchasing power through the crisis. Now it might be time to use that purchasing power to buy "cheap" energy before the rest of the market wakes up.
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2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
31 päivää sitten
‧59 min
0,0371 USD/osake
Viimeisin osinko
9,17%Tuotto/v
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Shareville
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Kirjaudu
- ·2 päivää sittenMEREN ANALYSIS (Updated with today's prices + focus on gas, which is now 32 % of WI production, double-checked against the 2025 annual report...The market is truly in a deep coma when it comes to Meren Energy... the numbers don't lie. Brent Jun-26 is at 94,53 USD right now. At the same time, Meren secured the historic gas agreement for PML 2/3 (Akpo/Egina) in early 2026 – exactly as stated in the annual report (MD&A page 6 and 85).Gas is 32 % of WI production (2026-guidance, WI-basis) and has gone from being a byproduct to being a pure profit machine. The company is still trading at valuations we only see in companies close to bankruptcy. Meren is the exact opposite: an extreme cash flow machine with one of the industry's strongest balance sheets (net debt/EBITDAX only 0,4x at year-end 2025). Here's why the upside is now approaching OVER +200 % – with gas as the single largest driver. 1. The hidden leverage: Oil at $94,5 + The Gas-boost (32 % of production)Meren has extreme operational leverage that the market has not priced in:Oil: For every $10 increase in Brent, EBITDAX rises by approx. $35 million (consistent with history and guidance). From base case $70 to today's $94,5 = pure profit increase of ~$85–90 million that is not visible in the old figures.The Gas-boost (32 % of WI production): The annual report confirms in black and white (MD&A page 6 & 85):”In early 2026, Meren and its JV Parties in PML 2/3 successfully executed an amendment to the gas sales agreement that includes a revised index for gas pricing, locking in a long-term gas price that is more reflective of the current LNG economics compared to 2018… The amendment also includes a mechanism for the sellers to recover the historical difference… starting from 2020… recovered through an upward adjustment to the netback pricing.”These are two separate effects that both directly impact cash flow :New higher prices for all future gas (LNG-indexed – significantly higher margin per unit than the old 2018 index).Catch-up / retroactive repayment from 2020 – historical difference is paid back as an upward adjustment on future gas sales (in practice, free money spread over future volumes) .Volumes: 19,7 Bcf gas sold in 2025 (up from 17,4 Bcf in 2024). 2026-guidance: 32 % gas on WI-basis.Gas is therefore no longer a byproduct – it is 32 % of the company's total output and now suddenly extremely profitable. 2. Multiples that defy logic (with gas-boost included)At $94,5 Brent + gas-reset (32 % of production), Meren becomes ridiculously cheap compared to peers:Key figuresMeren ($94,5 Brent + gas-reset)Seplat EnergySector averageEV / EBITDAX1,9–2,2x6,5x6,0xP/E (Forward)4,5–5,5x11,0x12,0xFCF Yield﹥30 %~12 %11 %Dividend Yield~10 % + buybacks5 %5 %Conclusion: If the multiple normalizes to just half of the sector average → the stock doubles from here. The 32 % share of gas makes the leverage even stronger than oil alone. 3. Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) – Now with gas as a separate value componentAt $94,5 oil and revised gas prices (confirmed in the report), NPV10 becomes significantly higher:Updated valuation (CAD per share): AssetValue per share (CAD)Comment (directly from the annual report)Nigeria – Oil ($94,5)3,80Base production + high marginsNigeria – Gas (32 % WI + Reset + catch-up)1,20NEW: Higher LNG prices + retroactive mechanism (MD&A page 6/85) – previously 0,90Namibia – Venus field (full carry)1,50FID 2026, no capex for MerenCash + other exploration0,30Net debt 0,4x EBITDAXTOTAL JUSTIFIED VALUE6,80 CAD+220 % from today's ~2,12 CADWhy the gas value is raised to 1,20 CAD/share: 32 % of production gets both permanently higher margins AND the catch-up mechanism. The market has not priced in either part yet. You buy Nigeria's cash flow (oil + gas) for less than half price – and get Namibia's world-class discovery for free.4. Catalysts – Why it will explode soonDividend & buybacks: Q1-2026 dividend already declared: $25,1 million (~$0,037/share). At $94,5 oil + gas-boost (32 % of volume), there is room for both extra dividends and aggressive buybacks.Namibia FID 2026: Venus revalues the entire company from a "Nigeria-play" to a global growth stock (ESIA complete, FEED ongoing).BTG Pactual (35,5 % owner): Will never accept 2x EBITDAX for a company drowning in cash from both oil and gas.Conclusion: The ultimate asymmetry – now with gas as a turbo There are two ways to make money on the stock market: be right about the future, or buy the present at an absurd bargain price. Meren gives you both – and gas (32 % of production) is the part the market has completely missed .At $94,5 Brent + gas-reset, the company generates so much cash that they can buy back the entire market capitalization in under 3 years – while you get a free ticket to Namibia's oil boom. Bear Case ($60 oil, old gas price): 3,20 CAD (+50 %)Base Case ($90 oil + Gas-reset 32 %): 5,80 CAD (+174 %)Bull Case ($100+ oil
- 3 päivää sitten3 päivää sittenI sold out. Their production is 70-100% hedged, meaning they Will receive far less than other oil companies but pay royalties for the current high Brent price.·20 t sittenI have found it, yes, but they don't seem to state how much. How does it look for Touthstone exploration?
- ·27.2.Is Meren Energy the cheapest Oil Company in the world ??... 200% Upside (Analysis) Hello everyone, After thoroughly reviewing the E&P (Exploration & Production) sector, I want to share an analysis of Meren Energy. There are rarely occasions when the market prices assets as incorrectly as right now. Meren is a classic case of "buy cash flows that the market distrusts and get growth options for free". Here is a review of why I believe Meren is extremely undervalued compared to peers, based on multiples, SOTP (Sum-of-the-Parts) and cash flow analysis. 1. MULTIPLES – A comparison with global peers The market values Meren as a company in crisis, but the balance sheet is one of the industry's strongest. Here's how Meren trades compared to the sector EV / EBITDAX (2025/2026E) Meren Energy: 2.8x Seplat Energy (Peer): 6.5x Sector average (Mid-cap E&P): 5.5x – 7.0x P / E (Forward) Meren Energy: 6.8x – 8.8x Sector average: 12.0x Free Cash Flow Yield Meren Energy: ﹥25 % Sector average: 10 – 12 % Net Debt / EBITDAX Meren Energy: 0.4x (Very low debt) Sector average: 1.5x Dividend Yield Meren Energy: ~9.5 % Sector average: 4 – 6 % Meren trades at an EV/EBITDAX of 2.8x. TOTALLY INSANE This "Nigeria discount" is hard to justify as Meren's assets are offshore and operated by supermajors like Chevron and TotalEnergies, which significantly reduces operational risk compared to land-based production. 2. SUM-OF-THE-PARTS (SOTP) – What are you actually buying? An SOTP analysis shows that today you are buying the core business at a discount and getting the explosive assets for free. A. The Core: Nigeria (Production & Reserves) The 2025 financial statements determined the after-tax NPV(10) for 2P reserves in Nigeria to be 1,499 million USD. Value per share (Nigeria 2P only): ~ (approx. 3.15 CAD) Today's share price: approx. 2.12 CAD Conclusion: At the current price, you buy the Nigerian production at a 28 % discount and get Namibia, South Africa and Equatorial Guinea completely for free. B. The Jewel: Namibia (Venus discovery) The Venus field in the Orange Basin is one of the largest global discoveries in 20 years (approx. 3 billion barrels). Wood Mackenzie values the field at approximately 15 billion USD. Meren's indirect share: 3.8 % (via 39.5 % ownership in Impact Oil & Gas) Structure: Meren is "fully carried" (TotalEnergies pays everything until production). Value per share (Carried NPV): approx. 0.84 USD (approx. 1.20 CAD) C. SOTP Summary (CAD per share) Nigeria 2P NPV10: 3.15 CAD (Base Case) Namibia (Venus Option): 1.20 CAD (Base Case) South Africa & EG (Exploration): 0.25 CAD Net Debt/Cash (Adjustment): -0.20 CAD Total Justified Value: 4.40 CAD Upside : +93 % (Base Case) In a bull-case scenario where Namibia is discounted more aggressively, the value can reach 6.10 CAD (+168 % upside). 3. CASH FLOW ANALYSIS & RETURN Meren generated an operating cash flow of 261.8 million USD in 2025. With a net investment rate (Capex) of approximately 100 million USD, this leaves enormous room for shareholder returns. Capital allocation model: Base dividend: 100 million USD/year (approx. 0.15 USD per share). NCIB (Buyback): The company has a mandate to buy back up to 5 % of outstanding shares. Leverage effect: For every 10 USD increase in the Brent price, Meren's EBITDAX increases by approximately 35 million USD. At an oil price level of 70 USD/bbl, the company trades at a Free Cash Flow Yield of over 25 %. Theoretically, the company can buy back its entire self in four years solely with its own cash flows. TOTALLY INSANE 4. CATALYSTS FOR REVALUATION (2026-2027) Why will the market wake up now? Namibia FID (Mid-2026): A final investment decision for Venus will force analysts to include the project in their DCF models rather than as a speculative option. Nigeria Gas-reset: The new price indexation for gas (PML 2/3) and the recovery of historical claims from 2020 provide a significant cash flow boost in 2026. BTG Pactual's influence: As a cornerstone owner (35.5 %), BTG will likely push for a more aggressive capital allocation or a structural deal if the discount persists. 5. SCENARIO ANALYSIS – UPSIDE AT DIFFERENT VALUATIONS Bear Case (Nigeria production only) Assumption: Oil price 60 USD, no valuation of Namibia. Justified value: 3.00 CAD Upside: +38 % Base Case (Namibia starts to be discounted) Assumption: Oil price 70 USD, multiple 5.0x, Namibia valued at 1.20 CAD. Justified value: 4.40 CAD Upside: +98 % Bull Case (Full revaluation) Assumption: Oil price 80+ USD, multiple 6.5x (Seplat level), Namibia valued at 2.00 CAD. Justified value: 6.10 CAD Upside: +178 % CONCLUSION When we summarize all scenarios, we see an asymmetry rarely seen in efficient markets. The Bear Case provides an upside of 32 % solely on existing production. The Base Case, where Namibia starts to be discounted correctly, provides almost 100 % upside. Meren Energy is not a "lottery ticket". It is a cash flow strong production company with a free option on the world's most exciting oil province. For those who understand the fundamentals, this is in
- ·19.2.Oil the Trade of the Decade ? $200 Oil needed to restore balance !?!? So the question is Oil the Trade of the Decade? Short .... YES but let me explain (ATTACHED) Meren EnergyLet's start with the Gold-to-Oil Ratio. For the uninitiated, it sounds like a niche data point, but for those who understand history and statistics, this is right now the most screaming signal in the market !!!1. So what are we actually seeing?Gold has served as humanity's honest money for over 5,000 years. Oil has powered our modern civilization for the last 150. The relationship between them tells you how much energy you can buy for your money.Right now, the ratio is trading a full 9 standard deviations (9 sigma) above its historical average !!!Statistical context: In a normal distribution, the probability of a 3-sigma event is 0.3%. A 9-sigma event is statistically something that "shouldn't happen" during the lifetime of the universe. Yet here we are. The last time we saw similar extremes was during the total lockdown in 2020.2. Gold at $5,000 – but where is the energy?With gold prices recently testing levels around $5,000/oz, the market signals enormous uncertainty and monetary inflation. But oil isn't keeping up... If we are to return to a historical average (a so-called mean reversion), it means that oil must perform +250% better than gold.If gold just stands still: Then oil only needs to trade north of $200 per barrel to restore balance.Conclusion: So either the world is heading into permanent energy poverty where oil never becomes valuable again (very unlikely when you check what all new reports say about peak demand), or energy is currently the most undervalued asset on the planet !!! Which makes companies like Chevron , Meren Energy VERY INTERESTING3. "The Opportunity"Buying oil (or energy companies) in this situation is not about "guessing the price next week". It's about betting that physical reality (energy) must eventually catch up with monetary reflection (gold).So the bottom line: Gold has preserved its purchasing power through the crisis. Now it might be time to use that purchasing power to buy "cheap" energy before the rest of the market wakes up.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
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Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 15.5. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 25.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 17.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 14.8.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 16.5.2025 | ||
2024 Q4 -tulosraportti 28.2.2025 |
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
31 päivää sitten
‧59 min
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 15.5. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 25.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 17.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 14.8.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 16.5.2025 | ||
2024 Q4 -tulosraportti 28.2.2025 |
0,0371 USD/osake
Viimeisin osinko
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- ·2 päivää sittenMEREN ANALYSIS (Updated with today's prices + focus on gas, which is now 32 % of WI production, double-checked against the 2025 annual report...The market is truly in a deep coma when it comes to Meren Energy... the numbers don't lie. Brent Jun-26 is at 94,53 USD right now. At the same time, Meren secured the historic gas agreement for PML 2/3 (Akpo/Egina) in early 2026 – exactly as stated in the annual report (MD&A page 6 and 85).Gas is 32 % of WI production (2026-guidance, WI-basis) and has gone from being a byproduct to being a pure profit machine. The company is still trading at valuations we only see in companies close to bankruptcy. Meren is the exact opposite: an extreme cash flow machine with one of the industry's strongest balance sheets (net debt/EBITDAX only 0,4x at year-end 2025). Here's why the upside is now approaching OVER +200 % – with gas as the single largest driver. 1. The hidden leverage: Oil at $94,5 + The Gas-boost (32 % of production)Meren has extreme operational leverage that the market has not priced in:Oil: For every $10 increase in Brent, EBITDAX rises by approx. $35 million (consistent with history and guidance). From base case $70 to today's $94,5 = pure profit increase of ~$85–90 million that is not visible in the old figures.The Gas-boost (32 % of WI production): The annual report confirms in black and white (MD&A page 6 & 85):”In early 2026, Meren and its JV Parties in PML 2/3 successfully executed an amendment to the gas sales agreement that includes a revised index for gas pricing, locking in a long-term gas price that is more reflective of the current LNG economics compared to 2018… The amendment also includes a mechanism for the sellers to recover the historical difference… starting from 2020… recovered through an upward adjustment to the netback pricing.”These are two separate effects that both directly impact cash flow :New higher prices for all future gas (LNG-indexed – significantly higher margin per unit than the old 2018 index).Catch-up / retroactive repayment from 2020 – historical difference is paid back as an upward adjustment on future gas sales (in practice, free money spread over future volumes) .Volumes: 19,7 Bcf gas sold in 2025 (up from 17,4 Bcf in 2024). 2026-guidance: 32 % gas on WI-basis.Gas is therefore no longer a byproduct – it is 32 % of the company's total output and now suddenly extremely profitable. 2. Multiples that defy logic (with gas-boost included)At $94,5 Brent + gas-reset (32 % of production), Meren becomes ridiculously cheap compared to peers:Key figuresMeren ($94,5 Brent + gas-reset)Seplat EnergySector averageEV / EBITDAX1,9–2,2x6,5x6,0xP/E (Forward)4,5–5,5x11,0x12,0xFCF Yield﹥30 %~12 %11 %Dividend Yield~10 % + buybacks5 %5 %Conclusion: If the multiple normalizes to just half of the sector average → the stock doubles from here. The 32 % share of gas makes the leverage even stronger than oil alone. 3. Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) – Now with gas as a separate value componentAt $94,5 oil and revised gas prices (confirmed in the report), NPV10 becomes significantly higher:Updated valuation (CAD per share): AssetValue per share (CAD)Comment (directly from the annual report)Nigeria – Oil ($94,5)3,80Base production + high marginsNigeria – Gas (32 % WI + Reset + catch-up)1,20NEW: Higher LNG prices + retroactive mechanism (MD&A page 6/85) – previously 0,90Namibia – Venus field (full carry)1,50FID 2026, no capex for MerenCash + other exploration0,30Net debt 0,4x EBITDAXTOTAL JUSTIFIED VALUE6,80 CAD+220 % from today's ~2,12 CADWhy the gas value is raised to 1,20 CAD/share: 32 % of production gets both permanently higher margins AND the catch-up mechanism. The market has not priced in either part yet. You buy Nigeria's cash flow (oil + gas) for less than half price – and get Namibia's world-class discovery for free.4. Catalysts – Why it will explode soonDividend & buybacks: Q1-2026 dividend already declared: $25,1 million (~$0,037/share). At $94,5 oil + gas-boost (32 % of volume), there is room for both extra dividends and aggressive buybacks.Namibia FID 2026: Venus revalues the entire company from a "Nigeria-play" to a global growth stock (ESIA complete, FEED ongoing).BTG Pactual (35,5 % owner): Will never accept 2x EBITDAX for a company drowning in cash from both oil and gas.Conclusion: The ultimate asymmetry – now with gas as a turbo There are two ways to make money on the stock market: be right about the future, or buy the present at an absurd bargain price. Meren gives you both – and gas (32 % of production) is the part the market has completely missed .At $94,5 Brent + gas-reset, the company generates so much cash that they can buy back the entire market capitalization in under 3 years – while you get a free ticket to Namibia's oil boom. Bear Case ($60 oil, old gas price): 3,20 CAD (+50 %)Base Case ($90 oil + Gas-reset 32 %): 5,80 CAD (+174 %)Bull Case ($100+ oil
- 3 päivää sitten3 päivää sittenI sold out. Their production is 70-100% hedged, meaning they Will receive far less than other oil companies but pay royalties for the current high Brent price.·20 t sittenI have found it, yes, but they don't seem to state how much. How does it look for Touthstone exploration?
- ·27.2.Is Meren Energy the cheapest Oil Company in the world ??... 200% Upside (Analysis) Hello everyone, After thoroughly reviewing the E&P (Exploration & Production) sector, I want to share an analysis of Meren Energy. There are rarely occasions when the market prices assets as incorrectly as right now. Meren is a classic case of "buy cash flows that the market distrusts and get growth options for free". Here is a review of why I believe Meren is extremely undervalued compared to peers, based on multiples, SOTP (Sum-of-the-Parts) and cash flow analysis. 1. MULTIPLES – A comparison with global peers The market values Meren as a company in crisis, but the balance sheet is one of the industry's strongest. Here's how Meren trades compared to the sector EV / EBITDAX (2025/2026E) Meren Energy: 2.8x Seplat Energy (Peer): 6.5x Sector average (Mid-cap E&P): 5.5x – 7.0x P / E (Forward) Meren Energy: 6.8x – 8.8x Sector average: 12.0x Free Cash Flow Yield Meren Energy: ﹥25 % Sector average: 10 – 12 % Net Debt / EBITDAX Meren Energy: 0.4x (Very low debt) Sector average: 1.5x Dividend Yield Meren Energy: ~9.5 % Sector average: 4 – 6 % Meren trades at an EV/EBITDAX of 2.8x. TOTALLY INSANE This "Nigeria discount" is hard to justify as Meren's assets are offshore and operated by supermajors like Chevron and TotalEnergies, which significantly reduces operational risk compared to land-based production. 2. SUM-OF-THE-PARTS (SOTP) – What are you actually buying? An SOTP analysis shows that today you are buying the core business at a discount and getting the explosive assets for free. A. The Core: Nigeria (Production & Reserves) The 2025 financial statements determined the after-tax NPV(10) for 2P reserves in Nigeria to be 1,499 million USD. Value per share (Nigeria 2P only): ~ (approx. 3.15 CAD) Today's share price: approx. 2.12 CAD Conclusion: At the current price, you buy the Nigerian production at a 28 % discount and get Namibia, South Africa and Equatorial Guinea completely for free. B. The Jewel: Namibia (Venus discovery) The Venus field in the Orange Basin is one of the largest global discoveries in 20 years (approx. 3 billion barrels). Wood Mackenzie values the field at approximately 15 billion USD. Meren's indirect share: 3.8 % (via 39.5 % ownership in Impact Oil & Gas) Structure: Meren is "fully carried" (TotalEnergies pays everything until production). Value per share (Carried NPV): approx. 0.84 USD (approx. 1.20 CAD) C. SOTP Summary (CAD per share) Nigeria 2P NPV10: 3.15 CAD (Base Case) Namibia (Venus Option): 1.20 CAD (Base Case) South Africa & EG (Exploration): 0.25 CAD Net Debt/Cash (Adjustment): -0.20 CAD Total Justified Value: 4.40 CAD Upside : +93 % (Base Case) In a bull-case scenario where Namibia is discounted more aggressively, the value can reach 6.10 CAD (+168 % upside). 3. CASH FLOW ANALYSIS & RETURN Meren generated an operating cash flow of 261.8 million USD in 2025. With a net investment rate (Capex) of approximately 100 million USD, this leaves enormous room for shareholder returns. Capital allocation model: Base dividend: 100 million USD/year (approx. 0.15 USD per share). NCIB (Buyback): The company has a mandate to buy back up to 5 % of outstanding shares. Leverage effect: For every 10 USD increase in the Brent price, Meren's EBITDAX increases by approximately 35 million USD. At an oil price level of 70 USD/bbl, the company trades at a Free Cash Flow Yield of over 25 %. Theoretically, the company can buy back its entire self in four years solely with its own cash flows. TOTALLY INSANE 4. CATALYSTS FOR REVALUATION (2026-2027) Why will the market wake up now? Namibia FID (Mid-2026): A final investment decision for Venus will force analysts to include the project in their DCF models rather than as a speculative option. Nigeria Gas-reset: The new price indexation for gas (PML 2/3) and the recovery of historical claims from 2020 provide a significant cash flow boost in 2026. BTG Pactual's influence: As a cornerstone owner (35.5 %), BTG will likely push for a more aggressive capital allocation or a structural deal if the discount persists. 5. SCENARIO ANALYSIS – UPSIDE AT DIFFERENT VALUATIONS Bear Case (Nigeria production only) Assumption: Oil price 60 USD, no valuation of Namibia. Justified value: 3.00 CAD Upside: +38 % Base Case (Namibia starts to be discounted) Assumption: Oil price 70 USD, multiple 5.0x, Namibia valued at 1.20 CAD. Justified value: 4.40 CAD Upside: +98 % Bull Case (Full revaluation) Assumption: Oil price 80+ USD, multiple 6.5x (Seplat level), Namibia valued at 2.00 CAD. Justified value: 6.10 CAD Upside: +178 % CONCLUSION When we summarize all scenarios, we see an asymmetry rarely seen in efficient markets. The Bear Case provides an upside of 32 % solely on existing production. The Base Case, where Namibia starts to be discounted correctly, provides almost 100 % upside. Meren Energy is not a "lottery ticket". It is a cash flow strong production company with a free option on the world's most exciting oil province. For those who understand the fundamentals, this is in
- ·19.2.Oil the Trade of the Decade ? $200 Oil needed to restore balance !?!? So the question is Oil the Trade of the Decade? Short .... YES but let me explain (ATTACHED) Meren EnergyLet's start with the Gold-to-Oil Ratio. For the uninitiated, it sounds like a niche data point, but for those who understand history and statistics, this is right now the most screaming signal in the market !!!1. So what are we actually seeing?Gold has served as humanity's honest money for over 5,000 years. Oil has powered our modern civilization for the last 150. The relationship between them tells you how much energy you can buy for your money.Right now, the ratio is trading a full 9 standard deviations (9 sigma) above its historical average !!!Statistical context: In a normal distribution, the probability of a 3-sigma event is 0.3%. A 9-sigma event is statistically something that "shouldn't happen" during the lifetime of the universe. Yet here we are. The last time we saw similar extremes was during the total lockdown in 2020.2. Gold at $5,000 – but where is the energy?With gold prices recently testing levels around $5,000/oz, the market signals enormous uncertainty and monetary inflation. But oil isn't keeping up... If we are to return to a historical average (a so-called mean reversion), it means that oil must perform +250% better than gold.If gold just stands still: Then oil only needs to trade north of $200 per barrel to restore balance.Conclusion: So either the world is heading into permanent energy poverty where oil never becomes valuable again (very unlikely when you check what all new reports say about peak demand), or energy is currently the most undervalued asset on the planet !!! Which makes companies like Chevron , Meren Energy VERY INTERESTING3. "The Opportunity"Buying oil (or energy companies) in this situation is not about "guessing the price next week". It's about betting that physical reality (energy) must eventually catch up with monetary reflection (gold).So the bottom line: Gold has preserved its purchasing power through the crisis. Now it might be time to use that purchasing power to buy "cheap" energy before the rest of the market wakes up.
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