2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
76 päivää sitten
‧59 min
0,0371 USD/osake
Viimeisin osinko
8,80%Tuotto/v
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Toronto Stock Exchange
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Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 13.5. | 1 päivä |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 25.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 17.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 14.8.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 16.5.2025 | ||
2024 Q4 -tulosraportti 28.2.2025 |
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
·16.4.Latest News ⏳ Namibia: Venus FID targeted for July 2026 Upstream reporting from the Namibia International Energy Conference highlights a clear timeline emerging for the Venus development. Namibia’s Petroleum Commissioner indicated the project will move into development “with FID by July 2026”, while TotalEnergies reiterated a mid-2026 target and confirmed it is “putting everything in place” to support a July decision. 📈 An important signal for the Orange Basin, as the project moves closer to what would be Namibia’s first offshore oil development. 🔗Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/enNNyTiy #MER #OilAndGas #Namibia #OrangeBasin- ·13.4.Latest News... WOW What's happening??? BP to buy interest in three offshore Namibian blocks as shift to oil and gas sharpens BP on Monday agreed to buy an operating interest in three offshore exploration blocks in Namibia from Canada-based Eco Atlantic Oil & Gas as it ramps up its upstream portfolio. (Reuters)
- ·1.4.LATEST NEWS M&A RUMOR LATEST NEWS It is now rumored that the investment bank Jefferies has reached out to an extremely exclusive group of companies, one of these Meren Energy... Check Africa Intelligence's latest rumors" The investment bank Jefferies is leading Chevron's divestment process in Nigeria. The crown jewel in the package is undoubtedly block OML 95, with the high-producing Meren field. Reports indicate that Meren Energy is one of the short-listed players granted access to the full data room. The name change as a "Regulatory Play": In jurisdictions like Nigeria, the relationship with state-owned NNPC and local stakeholders is absolutely crucial for obtaining operatorship or acquisition approval. That Africa Oil has chosen to change its name to Meren Energy is likely not a cosmetic whim, but a deeply calculated signal of long-term ownership of the Meren asset itself. It is a form of "flag-planting" that often precedes an official takeover of operational responsibility. Cash flow arbitrage and Prime synergies: Through its existing exposure in Prime, Meren Energy already has an operational infrastructure and cash flow that few competitors (such as Savannah or Vaalco) can match in terms of capital cost. If the company succeeds in adding production from OML 95 to its portfolio, we are talking about a transformative increase in FCF (Free Cash Flow) per share that fundamentally shifts the NAV calculation SIGNIFICANTLY! Discounted potential: The market tends to value independent E&P companies in Nigeria with a significant "security discount". But with the current strength of the balance sheet and a targeted expansion towards proven, low-cost fields like Meren, we see the beginning of a rerating journey where the company moves from being a passive investor to a regional powerhouse !!! There is a cognitive dissonance between Meren Energy's current valuation and the strategic puzzle pieces now being laid out via Jefferies' process. For those who understand the M&A dynamics in West Africa, the signal value in the name change, combined with the timing of Chevron's exit, is too strong to be ignored. Are we heading towards a "perfect storm" where Meren Energy secures operatorship for its namesake before the market has even had time to adjust its models? If Meren Energy succeeds in securing the field after which they are now named, we are talking about a completely new level for the company's production BUYBACK and dividend potential. The market often takes time to "connect the dots" during name changes and closed bidding processes, which can create an interesting window for those who do their homework in time.
- ·25.3.MEREN ANALYSIS (Updated with today's prices + focus on gas, which is now 32 % of WI production, double-checked against the 2025 annual report...The market is truly in a deep coma when it comes to Meren Energy... the numbers don't lie. Brent Jun-26 is at 94,53 USD right now. At the same time, Meren secured the historic gas agreement for PML 2/3 (Akpo/Egina) in early 2026 – exactly as stated in the annual report (MD&A page 6 and 85).Gas is 32 % of WI production (2026-guidance, WI-basis) and has gone from being a byproduct to being a pure profit machine. The company is still trading at valuations we only see in companies close to bankruptcy. Meren is the exact opposite: an extreme cash flow machine with one of the industry's strongest balance sheets (net debt/EBITDAX only 0,4x at year-end 2025). Here's why the upside is now approaching OVER +200 % – with gas as the single largest driver. 1. The hidden leverage: Oil at $94,5 + The Gas-boost (32 % of production)Meren has extreme operational leverage that the market has not priced in:Oil: For every $10 increase in Brent, EBITDAX rises by approx. $35 million (consistent with history and guidance). From base case $70 to today's $94,5 = pure profit increase of ~$85–90 million that is not visible in the old figures.The Gas-boost (32 % of WI production): The annual report confirms in black and white (MD&A page 6 & 85):”In early 2026, Meren and its JV Parties in PML 2/3 successfully executed an amendment to the gas sales agreement that includes a revised index for gas pricing, locking in a long-term gas price that is more reflective of the current LNG economics compared to 2018… The amendment also includes a mechanism for the sellers to recover the historical difference… starting from 2020… recovered through an upward adjustment to the netback pricing.”These are two separate effects that both directly impact cash flow :New higher prices for all future gas (LNG-indexed – significantly higher margin per unit than the old 2018 index).Catch-up / retroactive repayment from 2020 – historical difference is paid back as an upward adjustment on future gas sales (in practice, free money spread over future volumes) .Volumes: 19,7 Bcf gas sold in 2025 (up from 17,4 Bcf in 2024). 2026-guidance: 32 % gas on WI-basis.Gas is therefore no longer a byproduct – it is 32 % of the company's total output and now suddenly extremely profitable. 2. Multiples that defy logic (with gas-boost included)At $94,5 Brent + gas-reset (32 % of production), Meren becomes ridiculously cheap compared to peers:Key figuresMeren ($94,5 Brent + gas-reset)Seplat EnergySector averageEV / EBITDAX1,9–2,2x6,5x6,0xP/E (Forward)4,5–5,5x11,0x12,0xFCF Yield﹥30 %~12 %11 %Dividend Yield~10 % + buybacks5 %5 %Conclusion: If the multiple normalizes to just half of the sector average → the stock doubles from here. The 32 % share of gas makes the leverage even stronger than oil alone. 3. Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) – Now with gas as a separate value componentAt $94,5 oil and revised gas prices (confirmed in the report), NPV10 becomes significantly higher:Updated valuation (CAD per share): AssetValue per share (CAD)Comment (directly from the annual report)Nigeria – Oil ($94,5)3,80Base production + high marginsNigeria – Gas (32 % WI + Reset + catch-up)1,20NEW: Higher LNG prices + retroactive mechanism (MD&A page 6/85) – previously 0,90Namibia – Venus field (full carry)1,50FID 2026, no capex for MerenCash + other exploration0,30Net debt 0,4x EBITDAXTOTAL JUSTIFIED VALUE6,80 CAD+220 % from today's ~2,12 CADWhy the gas value is raised to 1,20 CAD/share: 32 % of production gets both permanently higher margins AND the catch-up mechanism. The market has not priced in either part yet. You buy Nigeria's cash flow (oil + gas) for less than half price – and get Namibia's world-class discovery for free.4. Catalysts – Why it will explode soonDividend & buybacks: Q1-2026 dividend already declared: $25,1 million (~$0,037/share). At $94,5 oil + gas-boost (32 % of volume), there is room for both extra dividends and aggressive buybacks.Namibia FID 2026: Venus revalues the entire company from a "Nigeria-play" to a global growth stock (ESIA complete, FEED ongoing).BTG Pactual (35,5 % owner): Will never accept 2x EBITDAX for a company drowning in cash from both oil and gas.Conclusion: The ultimate asymmetry – now with gas as a turbo There are two ways to make money on the stock market: be right about the future, or buy the present at an absurd bargain price. Meren gives you both – and gas (32 % of production) is the part the market has completely missed .At $94,5 Brent + gas-reset, the company generates so much cash that they can buy back the entire market capitalization in under 3 years – while you get a free ticket to Namibia's oil boom. Bear Case ($60 oil, old gas price): 3,20 CAD (+50 %)Base Case ($90 oil + Gas-reset 32 %): 5,80 CAD (+174 %)Bull Case ($100+ oil
24.3.24.3.I sold out. Their production is 70-100% hedged, meaning they Will receive far less than other oil companies but pay royalties for the current high Brent price.·27.3.I have found it, yes, but they don't seem to state how much. How does it look for Touthstone exploration?
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
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2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
76 päivää sitten
‧59 min
0,0371 USD/osake
Viimeisin osinko
8,80%Tuotto/v
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
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Kirjaudu
- ·16.4.Latest News ⏳ Namibia: Venus FID targeted for July 2026 Upstream reporting from the Namibia International Energy Conference highlights a clear timeline emerging for the Venus development. Namibia’s Petroleum Commissioner indicated the project will move into development “with FID by July 2026”, while TotalEnergies reiterated a mid-2026 target and confirmed it is “putting everything in place” to support a July decision. 📈 An important signal for the Orange Basin, as the project moves closer to what would be Namibia’s first offshore oil development. 🔗Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/enNNyTiy #MER #OilAndGas #Namibia #OrangeBasin
- ·13.4.Latest News... WOW What's happening??? BP to buy interest in three offshore Namibian blocks as shift to oil and gas sharpens BP on Monday agreed to buy an operating interest in three offshore exploration blocks in Namibia from Canada-based Eco Atlantic Oil & Gas as it ramps up its upstream portfolio. (Reuters)
- ·1.4.LATEST NEWS M&A RUMOR LATEST NEWS It is now rumored that the investment bank Jefferies has reached out to an extremely exclusive group of companies, one of these Meren Energy... Check Africa Intelligence's latest rumors" The investment bank Jefferies is leading Chevron's divestment process in Nigeria. The crown jewel in the package is undoubtedly block OML 95, with the high-producing Meren field. Reports indicate that Meren Energy is one of the short-listed players granted access to the full data room. The name change as a "Regulatory Play": In jurisdictions like Nigeria, the relationship with state-owned NNPC and local stakeholders is absolutely crucial for obtaining operatorship or acquisition approval. That Africa Oil has chosen to change its name to Meren Energy is likely not a cosmetic whim, but a deeply calculated signal of long-term ownership of the Meren asset itself. It is a form of "flag-planting" that often precedes an official takeover of operational responsibility. Cash flow arbitrage and Prime synergies: Through its existing exposure in Prime, Meren Energy already has an operational infrastructure and cash flow that few competitors (such as Savannah or Vaalco) can match in terms of capital cost. If the company succeeds in adding production from OML 95 to its portfolio, we are talking about a transformative increase in FCF (Free Cash Flow) per share that fundamentally shifts the NAV calculation SIGNIFICANTLY! Discounted potential: The market tends to value independent E&P companies in Nigeria with a significant "security discount". But with the current strength of the balance sheet and a targeted expansion towards proven, low-cost fields like Meren, we see the beginning of a rerating journey where the company moves from being a passive investor to a regional powerhouse !!! There is a cognitive dissonance between Meren Energy's current valuation and the strategic puzzle pieces now being laid out via Jefferies' process. For those who understand the M&A dynamics in West Africa, the signal value in the name change, combined with the timing of Chevron's exit, is too strong to be ignored. Are we heading towards a "perfect storm" where Meren Energy secures operatorship for its namesake before the market has even had time to adjust its models? If Meren Energy succeeds in securing the field after which they are now named, we are talking about a completely new level for the company's production BUYBACK and dividend potential. The market often takes time to "connect the dots" during name changes and closed bidding processes, which can create an interesting window for those who do their homework in time.
- ·25.3.MEREN ANALYSIS (Updated with today's prices + focus on gas, which is now 32 % of WI production, double-checked against the 2025 annual report...The market is truly in a deep coma when it comes to Meren Energy... the numbers don't lie. Brent Jun-26 is at 94,53 USD right now. At the same time, Meren secured the historic gas agreement for PML 2/3 (Akpo/Egina) in early 2026 – exactly as stated in the annual report (MD&A page 6 and 85).Gas is 32 % of WI production (2026-guidance, WI-basis) and has gone from being a byproduct to being a pure profit machine. The company is still trading at valuations we only see in companies close to bankruptcy. Meren is the exact opposite: an extreme cash flow machine with one of the industry's strongest balance sheets (net debt/EBITDAX only 0,4x at year-end 2025). Here's why the upside is now approaching OVER +200 % – with gas as the single largest driver. 1. The hidden leverage: Oil at $94,5 + The Gas-boost (32 % of production)Meren has extreme operational leverage that the market has not priced in:Oil: For every $10 increase in Brent, EBITDAX rises by approx. $35 million (consistent with history and guidance). From base case $70 to today's $94,5 = pure profit increase of ~$85–90 million that is not visible in the old figures.The Gas-boost (32 % of WI production): The annual report confirms in black and white (MD&A page 6 & 85):”In early 2026, Meren and its JV Parties in PML 2/3 successfully executed an amendment to the gas sales agreement that includes a revised index for gas pricing, locking in a long-term gas price that is more reflective of the current LNG economics compared to 2018… The amendment also includes a mechanism for the sellers to recover the historical difference… starting from 2020… recovered through an upward adjustment to the netback pricing.”These are two separate effects that both directly impact cash flow :New higher prices for all future gas (LNG-indexed – significantly higher margin per unit than the old 2018 index).Catch-up / retroactive repayment from 2020 – historical difference is paid back as an upward adjustment on future gas sales (in practice, free money spread over future volumes) .Volumes: 19,7 Bcf gas sold in 2025 (up from 17,4 Bcf in 2024). 2026-guidance: 32 % gas on WI-basis.Gas is therefore no longer a byproduct – it is 32 % of the company's total output and now suddenly extremely profitable. 2. Multiples that defy logic (with gas-boost included)At $94,5 Brent + gas-reset (32 % of production), Meren becomes ridiculously cheap compared to peers:Key figuresMeren ($94,5 Brent + gas-reset)Seplat EnergySector averageEV / EBITDAX1,9–2,2x6,5x6,0xP/E (Forward)4,5–5,5x11,0x12,0xFCF Yield﹥30 %~12 %11 %Dividend Yield~10 % + buybacks5 %5 %Conclusion: If the multiple normalizes to just half of the sector average → the stock doubles from here. The 32 % share of gas makes the leverage even stronger than oil alone. 3. Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) – Now with gas as a separate value componentAt $94,5 oil and revised gas prices (confirmed in the report), NPV10 becomes significantly higher:Updated valuation (CAD per share): AssetValue per share (CAD)Comment (directly from the annual report)Nigeria – Oil ($94,5)3,80Base production + high marginsNigeria – Gas (32 % WI + Reset + catch-up)1,20NEW: Higher LNG prices + retroactive mechanism (MD&A page 6/85) – previously 0,90Namibia – Venus field (full carry)1,50FID 2026, no capex for MerenCash + other exploration0,30Net debt 0,4x EBITDAXTOTAL JUSTIFIED VALUE6,80 CAD+220 % from today's ~2,12 CADWhy the gas value is raised to 1,20 CAD/share: 32 % of production gets both permanently higher margins AND the catch-up mechanism. The market has not priced in either part yet. You buy Nigeria's cash flow (oil + gas) for less than half price – and get Namibia's world-class discovery for free.4. Catalysts – Why it will explode soonDividend & buybacks: Q1-2026 dividend already declared: $25,1 million (~$0,037/share). At $94,5 oil + gas-boost (32 % of volume), there is room for both extra dividends and aggressive buybacks.Namibia FID 2026: Venus revalues the entire company from a "Nigeria-play" to a global growth stock (ESIA complete, FEED ongoing).BTG Pactual (35,5 % owner): Will never accept 2x EBITDAX for a company drowning in cash from both oil and gas.Conclusion: The ultimate asymmetry – now with gas as a turbo There are two ways to make money on the stock market: be right about the future, or buy the present at an absurd bargain price. Meren gives you both – and gas (32 % of production) is the part the market has completely missed .At $94,5 Brent + gas-reset, the company generates so much cash that they can buy back the entire market capitalization in under 3 years – while you get a free ticket to Namibia's oil boom. Bear Case ($60 oil, old gas price): 3,20 CAD (+50 %)Base Case ($90 oil + Gas-reset 32 %): 5,80 CAD (+174 %)Bull Case ($100+ oil
- 24.3.24.3.I sold out. Their production is 70-100% hedged, meaning they Will receive far less than other oil companies but pay royalties for the current high Brent price.·27.3.I have found it, yes, but they don't seem to state how much. How does it look for Touthstone exploration?
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Toronto Stock Exchange
Määrä
Osto
-
Myynti
Määrä
-
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - | - |
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 13.5. | 1 päivä |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 25.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 17.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 14.8.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 16.5.2025 | ||
2024 Q4 -tulosraportti 28.2.2025 |
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
76 päivää sitten
‧59 min
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 13.5. | 1 päivä |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 25.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 17.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 14.8.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 16.5.2025 | ||
2024 Q4 -tulosraportti 28.2.2025 |
0,0371 USD/osake
Viimeisin osinko
8,80%Tuotto/v
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
- ·16.4.Latest News ⏳ Namibia: Venus FID targeted for July 2026 Upstream reporting from the Namibia International Energy Conference highlights a clear timeline emerging for the Venus development. Namibia’s Petroleum Commissioner indicated the project will move into development “with FID by July 2026”, while TotalEnergies reiterated a mid-2026 target and confirmed it is “putting everything in place” to support a July decision. 📈 An important signal for the Orange Basin, as the project moves closer to what would be Namibia’s first offshore oil development. 🔗Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/enNNyTiy #MER #OilAndGas #Namibia #OrangeBasin
- ·13.4.Latest News... WOW What's happening??? BP to buy interest in three offshore Namibian blocks as shift to oil and gas sharpens BP on Monday agreed to buy an operating interest in three offshore exploration blocks in Namibia from Canada-based Eco Atlantic Oil & Gas as it ramps up its upstream portfolio. (Reuters)
- ·1.4.LATEST NEWS M&A RUMOR LATEST NEWS It is now rumored that the investment bank Jefferies has reached out to an extremely exclusive group of companies, one of these Meren Energy... Check Africa Intelligence's latest rumors" The investment bank Jefferies is leading Chevron's divestment process in Nigeria. The crown jewel in the package is undoubtedly block OML 95, with the high-producing Meren field. Reports indicate that Meren Energy is one of the short-listed players granted access to the full data room. The name change as a "Regulatory Play": In jurisdictions like Nigeria, the relationship with state-owned NNPC and local stakeholders is absolutely crucial for obtaining operatorship or acquisition approval. That Africa Oil has chosen to change its name to Meren Energy is likely not a cosmetic whim, but a deeply calculated signal of long-term ownership of the Meren asset itself. It is a form of "flag-planting" that often precedes an official takeover of operational responsibility. Cash flow arbitrage and Prime synergies: Through its existing exposure in Prime, Meren Energy already has an operational infrastructure and cash flow that few competitors (such as Savannah or Vaalco) can match in terms of capital cost. If the company succeeds in adding production from OML 95 to its portfolio, we are talking about a transformative increase in FCF (Free Cash Flow) per share that fundamentally shifts the NAV calculation SIGNIFICANTLY! Discounted potential: The market tends to value independent E&P companies in Nigeria with a significant "security discount". But with the current strength of the balance sheet and a targeted expansion towards proven, low-cost fields like Meren, we see the beginning of a rerating journey where the company moves from being a passive investor to a regional powerhouse !!! There is a cognitive dissonance between Meren Energy's current valuation and the strategic puzzle pieces now being laid out via Jefferies' process. For those who understand the M&A dynamics in West Africa, the signal value in the name change, combined with the timing of Chevron's exit, is too strong to be ignored. Are we heading towards a "perfect storm" where Meren Energy secures operatorship for its namesake before the market has even had time to adjust its models? If Meren Energy succeeds in securing the field after which they are now named, we are talking about a completely new level for the company's production BUYBACK and dividend potential. The market often takes time to "connect the dots" during name changes and closed bidding processes, which can create an interesting window for those who do their homework in time.
- ·25.3.MEREN ANALYSIS (Updated with today's prices + focus on gas, which is now 32 % of WI production, double-checked against the 2025 annual report...The market is truly in a deep coma when it comes to Meren Energy... the numbers don't lie. Brent Jun-26 is at 94,53 USD right now. At the same time, Meren secured the historic gas agreement for PML 2/3 (Akpo/Egina) in early 2026 – exactly as stated in the annual report (MD&A page 6 and 85).Gas is 32 % of WI production (2026-guidance, WI-basis) and has gone from being a byproduct to being a pure profit machine. The company is still trading at valuations we only see in companies close to bankruptcy. Meren is the exact opposite: an extreme cash flow machine with one of the industry's strongest balance sheets (net debt/EBITDAX only 0,4x at year-end 2025). Here's why the upside is now approaching OVER +200 % – with gas as the single largest driver. 1. The hidden leverage: Oil at $94,5 + The Gas-boost (32 % of production)Meren has extreme operational leverage that the market has not priced in:Oil: For every $10 increase in Brent, EBITDAX rises by approx. $35 million (consistent with history and guidance). From base case $70 to today's $94,5 = pure profit increase of ~$85–90 million that is not visible in the old figures.The Gas-boost (32 % of WI production): The annual report confirms in black and white (MD&A page 6 & 85):”In early 2026, Meren and its JV Parties in PML 2/3 successfully executed an amendment to the gas sales agreement that includes a revised index for gas pricing, locking in a long-term gas price that is more reflective of the current LNG economics compared to 2018… The amendment also includes a mechanism for the sellers to recover the historical difference… starting from 2020… recovered through an upward adjustment to the netback pricing.”These are two separate effects that both directly impact cash flow :New higher prices for all future gas (LNG-indexed – significantly higher margin per unit than the old 2018 index).Catch-up / retroactive repayment from 2020 – historical difference is paid back as an upward adjustment on future gas sales (in practice, free money spread over future volumes) .Volumes: 19,7 Bcf gas sold in 2025 (up from 17,4 Bcf in 2024). 2026-guidance: 32 % gas on WI-basis.Gas is therefore no longer a byproduct – it is 32 % of the company's total output and now suddenly extremely profitable. 2. Multiples that defy logic (with gas-boost included)At $94,5 Brent + gas-reset (32 % of production), Meren becomes ridiculously cheap compared to peers:Key figuresMeren ($94,5 Brent + gas-reset)Seplat EnergySector averageEV / EBITDAX1,9–2,2x6,5x6,0xP/E (Forward)4,5–5,5x11,0x12,0xFCF Yield﹥30 %~12 %11 %Dividend Yield~10 % + buybacks5 %5 %Conclusion: If the multiple normalizes to just half of the sector average → the stock doubles from here. The 32 % share of gas makes the leverage even stronger than oil alone. 3. Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) – Now with gas as a separate value componentAt $94,5 oil and revised gas prices (confirmed in the report), NPV10 becomes significantly higher:Updated valuation (CAD per share): AssetValue per share (CAD)Comment (directly from the annual report)Nigeria – Oil ($94,5)3,80Base production + high marginsNigeria – Gas (32 % WI + Reset + catch-up)1,20NEW: Higher LNG prices + retroactive mechanism (MD&A page 6/85) – previously 0,90Namibia – Venus field (full carry)1,50FID 2026, no capex for MerenCash + other exploration0,30Net debt 0,4x EBITDAXTOTAL JUSTIFIED VALUE6,80 CAD+220 % from today's ~2,12 CADWhy the gas value is raised to 1,20 CAD/share: 32 % of production gets both permanently higher margins AND the catch-up mechanism. The market has not priced in either part yet. You buy Nigeria's cash flow (oil + gas) for less than half price – and get Namibia's world-class discovery for free.4. Catalysts – Why it will explode soonDividend & buybacks: Q1-2026 dividend already declared: $25,1 million (~$0,037/share). At $94,5 oil + gas-boost (32 % of volume), there is room for both extra dividends and aggressive buybacks.Namibia FID 2026: Venus revalues the entire company from a "Nigeria-play" to a global growth stock (ESIA complete, FEED ongoing).BTG Pactual (35,5 % owner): Will never accept 2x EBITDAX for a company drowning in cash from both oil and gas.Conclusion: The ultimate asymmetry – now with gas as a turbo There are two ways to make money on the stock market: be right about the future, or buy the present at an absurd bargain price. Meren gives you both – and gas (32 % of production) is the part the market has completely missed .At $94,5 Brent + gas-reset, the company generates so much cash that they can buy back the entire market capitalization in under 3 years – while you get a free ticket to Namibia's oil boom. Bear Case ($60 oil, old gas price): 3,20 CAD (+50 %)Base Case ($90 oil + Gas-reset 32 %): 5,80 CAD (+174 %)Bull Case ($100+ oil
- 24.3.24.3.I sold out. Their production is 70-100% hedged, meaning they Will receive far less than other oil companies but pay royalties for the current high Brent price.·27.3.I have found it, yes, but they don't seem to state how much. How does it look for Touthstone exploration?
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