2026 Q2 -tulosraportti
10 päivää sitten
‧40 min
1,3532 SEK/osake
Viimeisin osinko
0,00%Tuotto/v
Tarjoustasot
Määrä
Osto
-
Myynti
Määrä
-
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 000 | - | - | ||
| 5 000 | - | - | ||
| 3 562 | - | - | ||
| 1 415 | - | - | ||
| 1 344 | - | - |
Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Rahastot ja ETF:t, joilla on osaketta
Mikään rahasto ei ilmoita osaketta kymmenen suurimman omistuksensa joukossa.
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q3 -tulosraportti 23.10. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 28.8. | ||
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 7.5. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 29.1. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 30.10.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 25.7.2025 |
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
·4 min sittenI have checked, Intrum has approximately 40% of its revenues in Euro. Since over 40% of the revenues are sourced in EUR from Southern Europe, the conversion to a weaker Swedish krona should have resulted in an "artificial" increase in reported revenues. That revenues nevertheless fall by 4%, means that the real, underlying decline in the core business is far more serious than the total amount of 4.05 billion indicates. The currency simply masks a deeper operational decline, as I see it. Some mention a resistance at approximately 3.84 kr. This does not align with the realities as of September 2026. After the massive dilution from this summer's share issue . The historical resistance lines must be redrawn completely after the capital structure was changed; an average knowledgeable writer should be able to grasp and understand this, but I understand why old figures/technical analysis must be used:)
·15 min sittenIf the October report continues to be almost exclusively cost-centered without corresponding quantification on the revenue side (i.e., e.g., number of new client contracts, size of partnership pipeline, concrete guidance on when the "Operational Excellence" update will come with sales-focused content), it is a strong reason for concern for me. It would signal and confirm my suspicion that management does not have as sharp a grip on the sales side as on the cost side, in a market that is already structurally tough!
2 min sittenTo be fair, you kinda can expect the decline to continue time being. Management didnt give any promises for it to get better this year. Just that Greece and Spain continue their decline. Its unfortunate that they didnt open the numbers more. Saying "traditional markets grew" is not enough to really calculate when their growth will offset decline of cash cows. This is why Im not waiting for markets to start revaluing Intrum upwards before real growth showing in quarter earnings.
·1 päivä sittenA moderate economic crisis can actually be positive for Intrum's business – but the stock can still fall sharply in the crisis's first phase. 1. An AI crash is not necessarily bad for Intrum If Nvidia and other AI/tech stocks fall 30-50 %, but it is primarily a correction of high valuations, I see a relatively limited fundamental effect on Intrum. Intrum earns money from credit management, servicing and debt portfolios – not from the development of AI stocks. The stock will probably be pulled down in a general market downturn, but the business itself does not need to deteriorate. Therefore, Intrum can also provide interesting diversification in a portfolio with many growth stocks. 2. Government bonds and interest rates are far more important If a crisis causes investors to seek European government bonds, bond prices will typically rise and interest rates will fall. That can be very positive for Intrum. The company still has high debt, and lower financing costs can therefore have a significant impact on future earnings. Intrum previously reported an average funding cost of around 7,6 % earlier this year. Even relatively small long-term improvements in financing can therefore become valuable. However, it's not only government bond yields that matter. Credit spreads are at least as important. If government bond yields fall, but the risk premium on corporate bonds explodes, it is not necessarily good for Intrum. 3. A moderate recession can actually help Intrum When the economy deteriorates: • more people get payment problems • companies get more bad debts • banks get more NPL's • more debt portfolios come up for sale • the demand for servicing and debt collection increases. Intrum operates in 20 European markets and is Europe's leading credit management company. Therefore, a weaker European economy can create more work and more investment opportunities. And the new capital-light/partnership model makes this extra interesting. Intrum does not necessarily need to finance all new debt portfolios alone, but can work together with external capital partners. 4. But a severe financial crisis is something else Here lies the big risk. If we get something reminiscent of 2008, credit markets can freeze. Then Intrum can experience: • sharply rising credit spreads • more difficult refinancing • falling value of debt portfolios • poorer collection performance • higher unemployment and customers who simply cannot pay. And the market will probably focus very quickly on Intrum's debt. Therefore, I can easily imagine the Intrum stock falling 30-50 % in a severe market panic, even if the crisis later creates good opportunities for the company. 5. The big difference in 2026 is the capital structure Here I think the Intrum case has become significantly stronger. Intrum has completed a capital raise of approx. SEK 7,5 billion, primarily to reduce debt and refinancing risk. Moody's has subsequently raised Intrum two notches to B3, while S&P has raised the company to B- with a positive outlook. S&P specifically highlights lower refinancing risk and better opportunities for further deleveraging. This does not mean that the debt problem is gone. Q2 still showed: Overall leverage: 4,8x Servicing leverage: 6,2x But the Q2 balance sheet does not yet show the full effect of the capital raise and subsequent measures. This makes Q3 particularly interesting. 6. My dream scenario for Intrum is actually a mild crisis Not a new 2008. I would much rather see: AI/tech correction → moderate recession → rising NPLs → ECB lowers interest rates → government bond yields fall → credit market remains open. In my assessment, that could be close to the perfect macro environment for Intrum. More defaulted loans provide more business, while lower interest rates gradually reduce financing pressure. If Intrum simultaneously continues deleveraging, the effect becomes even stronger. Intrum's target is around 3x leverage, and the capital raise is now expected to accelerate the path towards this level to around 2028. My conclusion I therefore do not see a possible AI crash as a significant reason to sell Intrum. What I'm keeping an eye on is: interest rates + credit spreads + leverage + refinancing + collection performance. 🟢 AI crash without recession: limited fundamental significance 🟢 Mild recession + interest rate cut: potentially positive 🟡 Normal recession: mixed, but more long-term opportunities 🔴 Financial/credit crisis: significant short-term risk Intrum is therefore not a classic crisis hedge. But if the company significantly reduces its debt, while Europe moves into a period of lower interest rates and rising NPL volumes, Intrum could, in my assessment, become a surprisingly interesting stock to own through a moderate economic downturn. That is precisely why I think Q3 and the development in leverage will be some of the most important things to follow now. ThisMy concern is the rhetoric around "accelerating cost savings" instead of addressing the root cause, i.e., the ability to SELL their SERVICES. What is management doing to accelerate their SALE of servicing, which, according to the new strategy, is the CORE BUSINESS. If we are to flood the forum with AI sludge, here is my contribution. This is a comment on the development of the servicing market in Europe; "Overall volumes have barely moved. The EU's NPL stock at banks under direct ECB supervision fell marginally to just over 355 billion euro, while the EBA's broader measurement shows a moderate increase from 365 to 375 billion euro 2023–2024 with an NPL ratio that crept up from 1.84 to 1.88 percent. No drama either way – the market is fundamentally stagnant in aggregate. But beneath the surface, precisely the geographical redistribution described in Intrum's report is taking place. Spain and Italy – two of Intrum's Specialised markets – continue to actively reduce their NPL volumes after a decade of clean-up following the financial crisis; this is structural shrinkage, not temporary weakness. Germany and France are moving in the opposite direction: French NPL volumes increased by 7.6 billion euro in 2025, and the German commercial real estate share of NPL rose from 5.9 to 6.9 percent, the highest recorded level. It is striking how exactly this matches Intrum's own explanation – a decline in Spain/Greece, while Germany (albeit for other, own reasons) is the exception among Traditional markets. Transaction volumes – i.e., how much actually changes hands and generates new servicing work – remain stable around 18–22 billion euro per year for 2025–2027 according to Banca IFIS, in line with previous years rather than a clear upward trend. None of the sources paint the picture of the strong recovery (9 percent annual growth from the bottom) that we previously mentioned based on the prospectus – rather, the market is now described as "reconfiguring" towards smaller, more individualized transactions and secondary deals between credit investors, which requires more specialized due diligence but does not necessarily yield a larger total volume. The broader NPL management software and services market (broader than pure servicing) is, however, clearly growing, with forecasts around 7–9 percent annual growth globally, driven by AI adoption, regulatory requirements (Basel III, EU's NPL directive) and digitalization – but this is a partially different market than the pure portfolio servicing volume Intrum relies on. The conclusion for your case: the European servicing market is not growing strongly in aggregate right now – it is stagnant in total volume but structurally redistributed, with Intrum's weak markets (Spain, Greece) among those shrinking the most and their strong markets (parts of Germany/Nordics/Central Europe) among those growing. This means that Intrum's organic −2 percent is not primarily a sign that they are losing market share in a growing pool, as we hoped last summer – it is partly a reflection that they happen to have large exposure to precisely the shrinking geographies. Intrum's turnaround therefore depends less on "a rising tide lifts all boats" and more on the company actively winning new contracts and partnership volumes in the markets that are actually growing – Germany, France, and broader Central Europe – to compensate for the structurally shrinking Specialised markets. Expansion is now more a matter of execution and market share than of tailwind from the industry as a whole.
·1 päivä sittenNow it's just a matter of waiting until the next report on October 23. It will be exciting to see how high we get (because there is so much that speaks for an increase, fundamentally and technically). Resistance is at approximately 3.84 kr and 4.63 kr. If Intrum can get over and hold above the first resistance, it would be worth gold. Have a good time in the autumn gloom, Intrum friends. 🥂🥳🌞
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Välittäjätilasto
Ostaneet eniten
| Välittäjä | Ostettu | Myyty | Netto | Sisäinen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anonyymi | 5 387 949 | 5 387 949 | 0 | 0 |
| Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB | 675 000 | 675 000 | 0 | 675 000 |
Myyneet eniten
| Välittäjä | Ostettu | Myyty | Netto | Sisäinen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anonyymi | 5 387 949 | 5 387 949 | 0 | 0 |
| Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB | 675 000 | 675 000 | 0 | 675 000 |
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti
10 päivää sitten
‧40 min
1,3532 SEK/osake
Viimeisin osinko
0,00%Tuotto/v
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
- ·4 min sittenI have checked, Intrum has approximately 40% of its revenues in Euro. Since over 40% of the revenues are sourced in EUR from Southern Europe, the conversion to a weaker Swedish krona should have resulted in an "artificial" increase in reported revenues. That revenues nevertheless fall by 4%, means that the real, underlying decline in the core business is far more serious than the total amount of 4.05 billion indicates. The currency simply masks a deeper operational decline, as I see it. Some mention a resistance at approximately 3.84 kr. This does not align with the realities as of September 2026. After the massive dilution from this summer's share issue . The historical resistance lines must be redrawn completely after the capital structure was changed; an average knowledgeable writer should be able to grasp and understand this, but I understand why old figures/technical analysis must be used:)
- ·15 min sittenIf the October report continues to be almost exclusively cost-centered without corresponding quantification on the revenue side (i.e., e.g., number of new client contracts, size of partnership pipeline, concrete guidance on when the "Operational Excellence" update will come with sales-focused content), it is a strong reason for concern for me. It would signal and confirm my suspicion that management does not have as sharp a grip on the sales side as on the cost side, in a market that is already structurally tough!2 min sittenTo be fair, you kinda can expect the decline to continue time being. Management didnt give any promises for it to get better this year. Just that Greece and Spain continue their decline. Its unfortunate that they didnt open the numbers more. Saying "traditional markets grew" is not enough to really calculate when their growth will offset decline of cash cows. This is why Im not waiting for markets to start revaluing Intrum upwards before real growth showing in quarter earnings.
- ·1 päivä sittenA moderate economic crisis can actually be positive for Intrum's business – but the stock can still fall sharply in the crisis's first phase. 1. An AI crash is not necessarily bad for Intrum If Nvidia and other AI/tech stocks fall 30-50 %, but it is primarily a correction of high valuations, I see a relatively limited fundamental effect on Intrum. Intrum earns money from credit management, servicing and debt portfolios – not from the development of AI stocks. The stock will probably be pulled down in a general market downturn, but the business itself does not need to deteriorate. Therefore, Intrum can also provide interesting diversification in a portfolio with many growth stocks. 2. Government bonds and interest rates are far more important If a crisis causes investors to seek European government bonds, bond prices will typically rise and interest rates will fall. That can be very positive for Intrum. The company still has high debt, and lower financing costs can therefore have a significant impact on future earnings. Intrum previously reported an average funding cost of around 7,6 % earlier this year. Even relatively small long-term improvements in financing can therefore become valuable. However, it's not only government bond yields that matter. Credit spreads are at least as important. If government bond yields fall, but the risk premium on corporate bonds explodes, it is not necessarily good for Intrum. 3. A moderate recession can actually help Intrum When the economy deteriorates: • more people get payment problems • companies get more bad debts • banks get more NPL's • more debt portfolios come up for sale • the demand for servicing and debt collection increases. Intrum operates in 20 European markets and is Europe's leading credit management company. Therefore, a weaker European economy can create more work and more investment opportunities. And the new capital-light/partnership model makes this extra interesting. Intrum does not necessarily need to finance all new debt portfolios alone, but can work together with external capital partners. 4. But a severe financial crisis is something else Here lies the big risk. If we get something reminiscent of 2008, credit markets can freeze. Then Intrum can experience: • sharply rising credit spreads • more difficult refinancing • falling value of debt portfolios • poorer collection performance • higher unemployment and customers who simply cannot pay. And the market will probably focus very quickly on Intrum's debt. Therefore, I can easily imagine the Intrum stock falling 30-50 % in a severe market panic, even if the crisis later creates good opportunities for the company. 5. The big difference in 2026 is the capital structure Here I think the Intrum case has become significantly stronger. Intrum has completed a capital raise of approx. SEK 7,5 billion, primarily to reduce debt and refinancing risk. Moody's has subsequently raised Intrum two notches to B3, while S&P has raised the company to B- with a positive outlook. S&P specifically highlights lower refinancing risk and better opportunities for further deleveraging. This does not mean that the debt problem is gone. Q2 still showed: Overall leverage: 4,8x Servicing leverage: 6,2x But the Q2 balance sheet does not yet show the full effect of the capital raise and subsequent measures. This makes Q3 particularly interesting. 6. My dream scenario for Intrum is actually a mild crisis Not a new 2008. I would much rather see: AI/tech correction → moderate recession → rising NPLs → ECB lowers interest rates → government bond yields fall → credit market remains open. In my assessment, that could be close to the perfect macro environment for Intrum. More defaulted loans provide more business, while lower interest rates gradually reduce financing pressure. If Intrum simultaneously continues deleveraging, the effect becomes even stronger. Intrum's target is around 3x leverage, and the capital raise is now expected to accelerate the path towards this level to around 2028. My conclusion I therefore do not see a possible AI crash as a significant reason to sell Intrum. What I'm keeping an eye on is: interest rates + credit spreads + leverage + refinancing + collection performance. 🟢 AI crash without recession: limited fundamental significance 🟢 Mild recession + interest rate cut: potentially positive 🟡 Normal recession: mixed, but more long-term opportunities 🔴 Financial/credit crisis: significant short-term risk Intrum is therefore not a classic crisis hedge. But if the company significantly reduces its debt, while Europe moves into a period of lower interest rates and rising NPL volumes, Intrum could, in my assessment, become a surprisingly interesting stock to own through a moderate economic downturn. That is precisely why I think Q3 and the development in leverage will be some of the most important things to follow now. ThisMy concern is the rhetoric around "accelerating cost savings" instead of addressing the root cause, i.e., the ability to SELL their SERVICES. What is management doing to accelerate their SALE of servicing, which, according to the new strategy, is the CORE BUSINESS. If we are to flood the forum with AI sludge, here is my contribution. This is a comment on the development of the servicing market in Europe; "Overall volumes have barely moved. The EU's NPL stock at banks under direct ECB supervision fell marginally to just over 355 billion euro, while the EBA's broader measurement shows a moderate increase from 365 to 375 billion euro 2023–2024 with an NPL ratio that crept up from 1.84 to 1.88 percent. No drama either way – the market is fundamentally stagnant in aggregate. But beneath the surface, precisely the geographical redistribution described in Intrum's report is taking place. Spain and Italy – two of Intrum's Specialised markets – continue to actively reduce their NPL volumes after a decade of clean-up following the financial crisis; this is structural shrinkage, not temporary weakness. Germany and France are moving in the opposite direction: French NPL volumes increased by 7.6 billion euro in 2025, and the German commercial real estate share of NPL rose from 5.9 to 6.9 percent, the highest recorded level. It is striking how exactly this matches Intrum's own explanation – a decline in Spain/Greece, while Germany (albeit for other, own reasons) is the exception among Traditional markets. Transaction volumes – i.e., how much actually changes hands and generates new servicing work – remain stable around 18–22 billion euro per year for 2025–2027 according to Banca IFIS, in line with previous years rather than a clear upward trend. None of the sources paint the picture of the strong recovery (9 percent annual growth from the bottom) that we previously mentioned based on the prospectus – rather, the market is now described as "reconfiguring" towards smaller, more individualized transactions and secondary deals between credit investors, which requires more specialized due diligence but does not necessarily yield a larger total volume. The broader NPL management software and services market (broader than pure servicing) is, however, clearly growing, with forecasts around 7–9 percent annual growth globally, driven by AI adoption, regulatory requirements (Basel III, EU's NPL directive) and digitalization – but this is a partially different market than the pure portfolio servicing volume Intrum relies on. The conclusion for your case: the European servicing market is not growing strongly in aggregate right now – it is stagnant in total volume but structurally redistributed, with Intrum's weak markets (Spain, Greece) among those shrinking the most and their strong markets (parts of Germany/Nordics/Central Europe) among those growing. This means that Intrum's organic −2 percent is not primarily a sign that they are losing market share in a growing pool, as we hoped last summer – it is partly a reflection that they happen to have large exposure to precisely the shrinking geographies. Intrum's turnaround therefore depends less on "a rising tide lifts all boats" and more on the company actively winning new contracts and partnership volumes in the markets that are actually growing – Germany, France, and broader Central Europe – to compensate for the structurally shrinking Specialised markets. Expansion is now more a matter of execution and market share than of tailwind from the industry as a whole.
- ·1 päivä sittenNow it's just a matter of waiting until the next report on October 23. It will be exciting to see how high we get (because there is so much that speaks for an increase, fundamentally and technically). Resistance is at approximately 3.84 kr and 4.63 kr. If Intrum can get over and hold above the first resistance, it would be worth gold. Have a good time in the autumn gloom, Intrum friends. 🥂🥳🌞
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Määrä
Osto
-
Myynti
Määrä
-
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 000 | - | - | ||
| 5 000 | - | - | ||
| 3 562 | - | - | ||
| 1 415 | - | - | ||
| 1 344 | - | - |
Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Rahastot ja ETF:t, joilla on osaketta
Mikään rahasto ei ilmoita osaketta kymmenen suurimman omistuksensa joukossa.
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q3 -tulosraportti 23.10. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 28.8. | ||
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 7.5. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 29.1. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 30.10.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 25.7.2025 |
Välittäjätilasto
Ostaneet eniten
| Välittäjä | Ostettu | Myyty | Netto | Sisäinen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anonyymi | 5 387 949 | 5 387 949 | 0 | 0 |
| Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB | 675 000 | 675 000 | 0 | 675 000 |
Myyneet eniten
| Välittäjä | Ostettu | Myyty | Netto | Sisäinen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anonyymi | 5 387 949 | 5 387 949 | 0 | 0 |
| Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB | 675 000 | 675 000 | 0 | 675 000 |
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti
10 päivää sitten
‧40 min
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q3 -tulosraportti 23.10. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 28.8. | ||
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 7.5. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 29.1. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 30.10.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 25.7.2025 |
1,3532 SEK/osake
Viimeisin osinko
0,00%Tuotto/v
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
- ·4 min sittenI have checked, Intrum has approximately 40% of its revenues in Euro. Since over 40% of the revenues are sourced in EUR from Southern Europe, the conversion to a weaker Swedish krona should have resulted in an "artificial" increase in reported revenues. That revenues nevertheless fall by 4%, means that the real, underlying decline in the core business is far more serious than the total amount of 4.05 billion indicates. The currency simply masks a deeper operational decline, as I see it. Some mention a resistance at approximately 3.84 kr. This does not align with the realities as of September 2026. After the massive dilution from this summer's share issue . The historical resistance lines must be redrawn completely after the capital structure was changed; an average knowledgeable writer should be able to grasp and understand this, but I understand why old figures/technical analysis must be used:)
- ·15 min sittenIf the October report continues to be almost exclusively cost-centered without corresponding quantification on the revenue side (i.e., e.g., number of new client contracts, size of partnership pipeline, concrete guidance on when the "Operational Excellence" update will come with sales-focused content), it is a strong reason for concern for me. It would signal and confirm my suspicion that management does not have as sharp a grip on the sales side as on the cost side, in a market that is already structurally tough!2 min sittenTo be fair, you kinda can expect the decline to continue time being. Management didnt give any promises for it to get better this year. Just that Greece and Spain continue their decline. Its unfortunate that they didnt open the numbers more. Saying "traditional markets grew" is not enough to really calculate when their growth will offset decline of cash cows. This is why Im not waiting for markets to start revaluing Intrum upwards before real growth showing in quarter earnings.
- ·1 päivä sittenA moderate economic crisis can actually be positive for Intrum's business – but the stock can still fall sharply in the crisis's first phase. 1. An AI crash is not necessarily bad for Intrum If Nvidia and other AI/tech stocks fall 30-50 %, but it is primarily a correction of high valuations, I see a relatively limited fundamental effect on Intrum. Intrum earns money from credit management, servicing and debt portfolios – not from the development of AI stocks. The stock will probably be pulled down in a general market downturn, but the business itself does not need to deteriorate. Therefore, Intrum can also provide interesting diversification in a portfolio with many growth stocks. 2. Government bonds and interest rates are far more important If a crisis causes investors to seek European government bonds, bond prices will typically rise and interest rates will fall. That can be very positive for Intrum. The company still has high debt, and lower financing costs can therefore have a significant impact on future earnings. Intrum previously reported an average funding cost of around 7,6 % earlier this year. Even relatively small long-term improvements in financing can therefore become valuable. However, it's not only government bond yields that matter. Credit spreads are at least as important. If government bond yields fall, but the risk premium on corporate bonds explodes, it is not necessarily good for Intrum. 3. A moderate recession can actually help Intrum When the economy deteriorates: • more people get payment problems • companies get more bad debts • banks get more NPL's • more debt portfolios come up for sale • the demand for servicing and debt collection increases. Intrum operates in 20 European markets and is Europe's leading credit management company. Therefore, a weaker European economy can create more work and more investment opportunities. And the new capital-light/partnership model makes this extra interesting. Intrum does not necessarily need to finance all new debt portfolios alone, but can work together with external capital partners. 4. But a severe financial crisis is something else Here lies the big risk. If we get something reminiscent of 2008, credit markets can freeze. Then Intrum can experience: • sharply rising credit spreads • more difficult refinancing • falling value of debt portfolios • poorer collection performance • higher unemployment and customers who simply cannot pay. And the market will probably focus very quickly on Intrum's debt. Therefore, I can easily imagine the Intrum stock falling 30-50 % in a severe market panic, even if the crisis later creates good opportunities for the company. 5. The big difference in 2026 is the capital structure Here I think the Intrum case has become significantly stronger. Intrum has completed a capital raise of approx. SEK 7,5 billion, primarily to reduce debt and refinancing risk. Moody's has subsequently raised Intrum two notches to B3, while S&P has raised the company to B- with a positive outlook. S&P specifically highlights lower refinancing risk and better opportunities for further deleveraging. This does not mean that the debt problem is gone. Q2 still showed: Overall leverage: 4,8x Servicing leverage: 6,2x But the Q2 balance sheet does not yet show the full effect of the capital raise and subsequent measures. This makes Q3 particularly interesting. 6. My dream scenario for Intrum is actually a mild crisis Not a new 2008. I would much rather see: AI/tech correction → moderate recession → rising NPLs → ECB lowers interest rates → government bond yields fall → credit market remains open. In my assessment, that could be close to the perfect macro environment for Intrum. More defaulted loans provide more business, while lower interest rates gradually reduce financing pressure. If Intrum simultaneously continues deleveraging, the effect becomes even stronger. Intrum's target is around 3x leverage, and the capital raise is now expected to accelerate the path towards this level to around 2028. My conclusion I therefore do not see a possible AI crash as a significant reason to sell Intrum. What I'm keeping an eye on is: interest rates + credit spreads + leverage + refinancing + collection performance. 🟢 AI crash without recession: limited fundamental significance 🟢 Mild recession + interest rate cut: potentially positive 🟡 Normal recession: mixed, but more long-term opportunities 🔴 Financial/credit crisis: significant short-term risk Intrum is therefore not a classic crisis hedge. But if the company significantly reduces its debt, while Europe moves into a period of lower interest rates and rising NPL volumes, Intrum could, in my assessment, become a surprisingly interesting stock to own through a moderate economic downturn. That is precisely why I think Q3 and the development in leverage will be some of the most important things to follow now. ThisMy concern is the rhetoric around "accelerating cost savings" instead of addressing the root cause, i.e., the ability to SELL their SERVICES. What is management doing to accelerate their SALE of servicing, which, according to the new strategy, is the CORE BUSINESS. If we are to flood the forum with AI sludge, here is my contribution. This is a comment on the development of the servicing market in Europe; "Overall volumes have barely moved. The EU's NPL stock at banks under direct ECB supervision fell marginally to just over 355 billion euro, while the EBA's broader measurement shows a moderate increase from 365 to 375 billion euro 2023–2024 with an NPL ratio that crept up from 1.84 to 1.88 percent. No drama either way – the market is fundamentally stagnant in aggregate. But beneath the surface, precisely the geographical redistribution described in Intrum's report is taking place. Spain and Italy – two of Intrum's Specialised markets – continue to actively reduce their NPL volumes after a decade of clean-up following the financial crisis; this is structural shrinkage, not temporary weakness. Germany and France are moving in the opposite direction: French NPL volumes increased by 7.6 billion euro in 2025, and the German commercial real estate share of NPL rose from 5.9 to 6.9 percent, the highest recorded level. It is striking how exactly this matches Intrum's own explanation – a decline in Spain/Greece, while Germany (albeit for other, own reasons) is the exception among Traditional markets. Transaction volumes – i.e., how much actually changes hands and generates new servicing work – remain stable around 18–22 billion euro per year for 2025–2027 according to Banca IFIS, in line with previous years rather than a clear upward trend. None of the sources paint the picture of the strong recovery (9 percent annual growth from the bottom) that we previously mentioned based on the prospectus – rather, the market is now described as "reconfiguring" towards smaller, more individualized transactions and secondary deals between credit investors, which requires more specialized due diligence but does not necessarily yield a larger total volume. The broader NPL management software and services market (broader than pure servicing) is, however, clearly growing, with forecasts around 7–9 percent annual growth globally, driven by AI adoption, regulatory requirements (Basel III, EU's NPL directive) and digitalization – but this is a partially different market than the pure portfolio servicing volume Intrum relies on. The conclusion for your case: the European servicing market is not growing strongly in aggregate right now – it is stagnant in total volume but structurally redistributed, with Intrum's weak markets (Spain, Greece) among those shrinking the most and their strong markets (parts of Germany/Nordics/Central Europe) among those growing. This means that Intrum's organic −2 percent is not primarily a sign that they are losing market share in a growing pool, as we hoped last summer – it is partly a reflection that they happen to have large exposure to precisely the shrinking geographies. Intrum's turnaround therefore depends less on "a rising tide lifts all boats" and more on the company actively winning new contracts and partnership volumes in the markets that are actually growing – Germany, France, and broader Central Europe – to compensate for the structurally shrinking Specialised markets. Expansion is now more a matter of execution and market share than of tailwind from the industry as a whole.
- ·1 päivä sittenNow it's just a matter of waiting until the next report on October 23. It will be exciting to see how high we get (because there is so much that speaks for an increase, fundamentally and technically). Resistance is at approximately 3.84 kr and 4.63 kr. If Intrum can get over and hold above the first resistance, it would be worth gold. Have a good time in the autumn gloom, Intrum friends. 🥂🥳🌞
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| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
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| 5 000 | - | - | ||
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| 3 562 | - | - | ||
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Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
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| Välittäjä | Ostettu | Myyty | Netto | Sisäinen |
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| Anonyymi | 5 387 949 | 5 387 949 | 0 | 0 |
| Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB | 675 000 | 675 000 | 0 | 675 000 |
Myyneet eniten
| Välittäjä | Ostettu | Myyty | Netto | Sisäinen |
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| Anonyymi | 5 387 949 | 5 387 949 | 0 | 0 |
| Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB | 675 000 | 675 000 | 0 | 675 000 |