Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
I refer to my post on Friday, Dec 5th, in which I promised to reveal my estimation for the current fair value of RHM shares using the discounted cash flow method. This is the method that analysts mainly use when determining target prices. It is also the method that is mainly used when a company is planning to make a corporate acquisition. The most critical aspect of this method is determining the terminal value, i.e., the multiplier used to price the share in the future. Here, one can use a bearish, neutral, or bullish approach, and each low, mid, and high range.
I used three different methods (10Y DCF EBITDA Exit, 10Y DCF Revenue Exit, and 5Y DCF EBITDA Exit). For each method, I calculated the terminal value multiplier using either the bearish low multiplier, the base mid multiplier, or the bullish low multiplier. This gave me nine different values. The lowest was €976. This came from 5Y DCF EBITDA Exit with Bearish Low multiplier (EV / EBITDA = 7) (and the highest €3,134. The average was €2,165. You can choose your own from these.
My forecast is based on RHM's own guidance until 2030 and, beyond that, on the assumption that revenue will grow at a slightly more moderate pace and profitability will remain good, but EBIT-% will decline slightly. I have also assumed that Capex in relation to revenue will gradually decrease.
The method forecasts future cash flows and then discounts them to the present. The interest rate used is usually the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). However, since the company still has some value at the end of the forecast period, the terminal value or perpetual value must be calculated. When using, for example, the 10 Y DCF EBITDA Exit method, you can think of it as deciding to invest today in a company that you intend to sell in 10 years. To know how much you should pay for it, you need to forecast its business (cash flow) for the next ten years and discount it to the present. Then estimate how much the market will be willing to pay for the company in 10 years. Estimate this using the EV/EBITDA ratio. EV = Enterprise Value divided by EBITDA. Then discount it to the present and add these amounts to get the company's current enterprise value. Subtract liabilities and add cash. This is the company's equity value, i.e., its current fair value. When selecting the ratio, you can use ratios for the industry, the company's history, and benchmark companies.
My choice for determining the terminal value is as follows: If I use the 5-year method, I choose the Bullish High multiplier (12) as the EV/EBITDA Exit multiplier, which gives me a fair value of €1,832. For the 10-year method, I choose the Base Mid multiples, which gives me an EBITDA Exit multiple of 10 and a fair value of €2,566.
The German government will launch a massive order program worth over €300 billion in the coming months and is expected to place most of these binding orders by the end of H1/2026. RHM will be the biggest winner in this program. Based on this, I am convinced that the share price will rise by at least tens of percent over the next six months. (A possible peace/ceasefire in Ukraine may still cause a temporary dip, but the price will then return to the right level when the market realizes that armament will only accelerate.)
My target price for 2028 is €3,000. This is based on the assumption that in spring 2029, the company's backward-looking P/E ratio would be 35 and its forward-looking P/E ratio would be 27 at that price. (The forecast EPS for 2028 is €85 and for 2029 is €109.)
Note that RHM's historical EV/EBITDA ratio has been 11 (including the period before the war in Ukraine!), the median ratio of European and American peers is 23, and RHM's current ratio is 35.7. The current, very high ratio indicates that future growth has already been priced into the share price.
Thanks for your work.
PS: I myself always use a calculation based on Owner Earnings (OE) to determine a fair price. They complement each other really well.
In the case of RHM, one must be careful not to take the result from an OE as a reliable forecast, as CAPEX is very high due to their large investments. CAPEX must therefore be taken into account.
Their new policy comes at the same time as Europe negotiated the 28 points. Could it be yet another tactic to push through mr orange politics? If one reads these 28 points, one quickly realizes that putin avoids ending up in the history books as a worthless leader in war. Last but not least, the agreement would mean big business for the USA. As we all know, it's america first that applies, and that also applies when trump wants to create peace
It is time for Europe - to stop all purchases of US-produced weapons! Cancel all F 35 orders - throw the contracts in the trash - and see european production get started - we have had decades for this but refused to realize reality as it is -
Rheinmetall receives large order for tank ammunition from Bundeswehr
today at 09:48 ∙ Finwire
Rheinmetall has received a new order from Bundeswehr, the German armed forces, for 120 mm tank ammunition worth several hundred million euros. This is stated in a press release.
The order is part of an existing framework agreement that was extended in July 2023, and which now includes deliveries totaling 4 billion euros until 2030.
The agreement makes it possible to purchase several hundred thousand combat and practice rounds for the Leopard 2 system.
https://www.nordnet.no/market/news/51fbabf2-4670-445b-8ca5-bd7eea7af8e6
USA's new doctrine is a bit disjointed (MAGA) and also interferes internally in the EU with opinions on what we may and may not decide. USA is now siding with Russia and China (at least equating these as those who "decide" going forward), which will lead to masses of new conflict areas where the new "untouchables" believe they have a right to others' territories or influence over what they may decide.
Well, that's what happens if you're too naive and gullible for too long. Perhaps if Europe would occasionally think about something other than bottle caps not coming off plastic bottles and such important things =)
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Uutiset ja analyysit
Uutiset ja lehdistötiedotteet
Analyysit
tänään klo 08.48
∙
Osakeuutinen
Rheinmetall får stororder på stridsvagnsammunition från Bundeswehr
27 marras 13.46
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Osakeuutinen
Rheinmetall tecknar danskt ramavtal för upp till tusen logistikfordon
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Markkinakommentti
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Osakeuutinen
Rheinmetall lockar tusentals ansökningar till lediga jobb - WSJ
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Markkinakommentti
EUROPABÖRSER: FÖRSVARS- OCH AI-RELATERAT BACKADE, STOXX 600 -0,4%
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Osakeuutinen
Europeiska försvarsaktier sjunker efter uttalande av Zelenskyj
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Tuotteita joiden kohde-etuutena tämä arvopaperi
Sertifikaatit
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti
32 päivää sitten1 t 10 min
8,10 EUR/osake
Viimeisin osinko
0,53 %Tuotto/v
Näytä
Uutiset ja analyysit
Uutiset ja lehdistötiedotteet
Analyysit
tänään klo 08.48
∙
Osakeuutinen
Rheinmetall får stororder på stridsvagnsammunition från Bundeswehr
27 marras 13.46
∙
Osakeuutinen
Rheinmetall tecknar danskt ramavtal för upp till tusen logistikfordon
26 marras 16.35
∙
Markkinakommentti
EUROPABÖRSER: FÖRSVARSSEKTORN STEG PÅ GRÖNA BÖRSER, STOXX 600 +1,1%
26 marras 12.24
∙
Osakeuutinen
FÖRSVAR: POTENTIAL FÖR NY VÄNDNING I SEKTORNS AKTIER - BOFA
24 marras 16.32
∙
Markkinakommentti
EUROPABÖRSER: UPPÅT, BAYER STEG I FRANKFURT, STOXX 600 +0,3%
24 marras 15.05
∙
Osakeuutinen
Rheinmetall lockar tusentals ansökningar till lediga jobb - WSJ
21 marras 16.41
∙
Markkinakommentti
EUROPABÖRSER: FÖRSVARS- OCH AI-RELATERAT BACKADE, STOXX 600 -0,4%
21 marras 12.52
∙
Osakeuutinen
Europeiska försvarsaktier sjunker efter uttalande av Zelenskyj
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
I refer to my post on Friday, Dec 5th, in which I promised to reveal my estimation for the current fair value of RHM shares using the discounted cash flow method. This is the method that analysts mainly use when determining target prices. It is also the method that is mainly used when a company is planning to make a corporate acquisition. The most critical aspect of this method is determining the terminal value, i.e., the multiplier used to price the share in the future. Here, one can use a bearish, neutral, or bullish approach, and each low, mid, and high range.
I used three different methods (10Y DCF EBITDA Exit, 10Y DCF Revenue Exit, and 5Y DCF EBITDA Exit). For each method, I calculated the terminal value multiplier using either the bearish low multiplier, the base mid multiplier, or the bullish low multiplier. This gave me nine different values. The lowest was €976. This came from 5Y DCF EBITDA Exit with Bearish Low multiplier (EV / EBITDA = 7) (and the highest €3,134. The average was €2,165. You can choose your own from these.
My forecast is based on RHM's own guidance until 2030 and, beyond that, on the assumption that revenue will grow at a slightly more moderate pace and profitability will remain good, but EBIT-% will decline slightly. I have also assumed that Capex in relation to revenue will gradually decrease.
The method forecasts future cash flows and then discounts them to the present. The interest rate used is usually the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). However, since the company still has some value at the end of the forecast period, the terminal value or perpetual value must be calculated. When using, for example, the 10 Y DCF EBITDA Exit method, you can think of it as deciding to invest today in a company that you intend to sell in 10 years. To know how much you should pay for it, you need to forecast its business (cash flow) for the next ten years and discount it to the present. Then estimate how much the market will be willing to pay for the company in 10 years. Estimate this using the EV/EBITDA ratio. EV = Enterprise Value divided by EBITDA. Then discount it to the present and add these amounts to get the company's current enterprise value. Subtract liabilities and add cash. This is the company's equity value, i.e., its current fair value. When selecting the ratio, you can use ratios for the industry, the company's history, and benchmark companies.
My choice for determining the terminal value is as follows: If I use the 5-year method, I choose the Bullish High multiplier (12) as the EV/EBITDA Exit multiplier, which gives me a fair value of €1,832. For the 10-year method, I choose the Base Mid multiples, which gives me an EBITDA Exit multiple of 10 and a fair value of €2,566.
The German government will launch a massive order program worth over €300 billion in the coming months and is expected to place most of these binding orders by the end of H1/2026. RHM will be the biggest winner in this program. Based on this, I am convinced that the share price will rise by at least tens of percent over the next six months. (A possible peace/ceasefire in Ukraine may still cause a temporary dip, but the price will then return to the right level when the market realizes that armament will only accelerate.)
My target price for 2028 is €3,000. This is based on the assumption that in spring 2029, the company's backward-looking P/E ratio would be 35 and its forward-looking P/E ratio would be 27 at that price. (The forecast EPS for 2028 is €85 and for 2029 is €109.)
Note that RHM's historical EV/EBITDA ratio has been 11 (including the period before the war in Ukraine!), the median ratio of European and American peers is 23, and RHM's current ratio is 35.7. The current, very high ratio indicates that future growth has already been priced into the share price.
Thanks for your work.
PS: I myself always use a calculation based on Owner Earnings (OE) to determine a fair price. They complement each other really well.
In the case of RHM, one must be careful not to take the result from an OE as a reliable forecast, as CAPEX is very high due to their large investments. CAPEX must therefore be taken into account.
Their new policy comes at the same time as Europe negotiated the 28 points. Could it be yet another tactic to push through mr orange politics? If one reads these 28 points, one quickly realizes that putin avoids ending up in the history books as a worthless leader in war. Last but not least, the agreement would mean big business for the USA. As we all know, it's america first that applies, and that also applies when trump wants to create peace
It is time for Europe - to stop all purchases of US-produced weapons! Cancel all F 35 orders - throw the contracts in the trash - and see european production get started - we have had decades for this but refused to realize reality as it is -
Rheinmetall receives large order for tank ammunition from Bundeswehr
today at 09:48 ∙ Finwire
Rheinmetall has received a new order from Bundeswehr, the German armed forces, for 120 mm tank ammunition worth several hundred million euros. This is stated in a press release.
The order is part of an existing framework agreement that was extended in July 2023, and which now includes deliveries totaling 4 billion euros until 2030.
The agreement makes it possible to purchase several hundred thousand combat and practice rounds for the Leopard 2 system.
https://www.nordnet.no/market/news/51fbabf2-4670-445b-8ca5-bd7eea7af8e6
USA's new doctrine is a bit disjointed (MAGA) and also interferes internally in the EU with opinions on what we may and may not decide. USA is now siding with Russia and China (at least equating these as those who "decide" going forward), which will lead to masses of new conflict areas where the new "untouchables" believe they have a right to others' territories or influence over what they may decide.
Well, that's what happens if you're too naive and gullible for too long. Perhaps if Europe would occasionally think about something other than bottle caps not coming off plastic bottles and such important things =)
Näytä vielä 3 kommenttia
Näytä 1 vastaus
Näytä enemmän
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
GermanyXetra
Määrä
Osto
0
0,00
Myynti
Määrä
0,00
0
Viimeisimmät kaupat
Aika
Hinta
Määrä
Ostaja
Myyjä
-
-
-
-
-
Ylin
1 594,5
VWAP
1 573,5
Alin
1 543,5
VaihtoMäärä
325,6 206 949
VWAP
1 573,5
Ylin
1 594,5
Alin
1 543,5
VaihtoMäärä
325,6 206 949
Tietoa osakekaupankäyntiin liittyvistä riskeistä
Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Yhtiötapahtumat
Näytä kaikki
Seuraava tapahtuma
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
11.3.2026
Menneet tapahtumat
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti
6.11.
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti
5.11.
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti
7.8.
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti
8.5.
2024 Q4 -tulosraportti
12.3.
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr
Tuotteita joiden kohde-etuutena tämä arvopaperi
Sertifikaatit
8,10 EUR/osake
Viimeisin osinko
0,53 %Tuotto/v
Näytä
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
I refer to my post on Friday, Dec 5th, in which I promised to reveal my estimation for the current fair value of RHM shares using the discounted cash flow method. This is the method that analysts mainly use when determining target prices. It is also the method that is mainly used when a company is planning to make a corporate acquisition. The most critical aspect of this method is determining the terminal value, i.e., the multiplier used to price the share in the future. Here, one can use a bearish, neutral, or bullish approach, and each low, mid, and high range.
I used three different methods (10Y DCF EBITDA Exit, 10Y DCF Revenue Exit, and 5Y DCF EBITDA Exit). For each method, I calculated the terminal value multiplier using either the bearish low multiplier, the base mid multiplier, or the bullish low multiplier. This gave me nine different values. The lowest was €976. This came from 5Y DCF EBITDA Exit with Bearish Low multiplier (EV / EBITDA = 7) (and the highest €3,134. The average was €2,165. You can choose your own from these.
My forecast is based on RHM's own guidance until 2030 and, beyond that, on the assumption that revenue will grow at a slightly more moderate pace and profitability will remain good, but EBIT-% will decline slightly. I have also assumed that Capex in relation to revenue will gradually decrease.
The method forecasts future cash flows and then discounts them to the present. The interest rate used is usually the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). However, since the company still has some value at the end of the forecast period, the terminal value or perpetual value must be calculated. When using, for example, the 10 Y DCF EBITDA Exit method, you can think of it as deciding to invest today in a company that you intend to sell in 10 years. To know how much you should pay for it, you need to forecast its business (cash flow) for the next ten years and discount it to the present. Then estimate how much the market will be willing to pay for the company in 10 years. Estimate this using the EV/EBITDA ratio. EV = Enterprise Value divided by EBITDA. Then discount it to the present and add these amounts to get the company's current enterprise value. Subtract liabilities and add cash. This is the company's equity value, i.e., its current fair value. When selecting the ratio, you can use ratios for the industry, the company's history, and benchmark companies.
My choice for determining the terminal value is as follows: If I use the 5-year method, I choose the Bullish High multiplier (12) as the EV/EBITDA Exit multiplier, which gives me a fair value of €1,832. For the 10-year method, I choose the Base Mid multiples, which gives me an EBITDA Exit multiple of 10 and a fair value of €2,566.
The German government will launch a massive order program worth over €300 billion in the coming months and is expected to place most of these binding orders by the end of H1/2026. RHM will be the biggest winner in this program. Based on this, I am convinced that the share price will rise by at least tens of percent over the next six months. (A possible peace/ceasefire in Ukraine may still cause a temporary dip, but the price will then return to the right level when the market realizes that armament will only accelerate.)
My target price for 2028 is €3,000. This is based on the assumption that in spring 2029, the company's backward-looking P/E ratio would be 35 and its forward-looking P/E ratio would be 27 at that price. (The forecast EPS for 2028 is €85 and for 2029 is €109.)
Note that RHM's historical EV/EBITDA ratio has been 11 (including the period before the war in Ukraine!), the median ratio of European and American peers is 23, and RHM's current ratio is 35.7. The current, very high ratio indicates that future growth has already been priced into the share price.
Thanks for your work.
PS: I myself always use a calculation based on Owner Earnings (OE) to determine a fair price. They complement each other really well.
In the case of RHM, one must be careful not to take the result from an OE as a reliable forecast, as CAPEX is very high due to their large investments. CAPEX must therefore be taken into account.
Their new policy comes at the same time as Europe negotiated the 28 points. Could it be yet another tactic to push through mr orange politics? If one reads these 28 points, one quickly realizes that putin avoids ending up in the history books as a worthless leader in war. Last but not least, the agreement would mean big business for the USA. As we all know, it's america first that applies, and that also applies when trump wants to create peace
It is time for Europe - to stop all purchases of US-produced weapons! Cancel all F 35 orders - throw the contracts in the trash - and see european production get started - we have had decades for this but refused to realize reality as it is -
Rheinmetall receives large order for tank ammunition from Bundeswehr
today at 09:48 ∙ Finwire
Rheinmetall has received a new order from Bundeswehr, the German armed forces, for 120 mm tank ammunition worth several hundred million euros. This is stated in a press release.
The order is part of an existing framework agreement that was extended in July 2023, and which now includes deliveries totaling 4 billion euros until 2030.
The agreement makes it possible to purchase several hundred thousand combat and practice rounds for the Leopard 2 system.
https://www.nordnet.no/market/news/51fbabf2-4670-445b-8ca5-bd7eea7af8e6
USA's new doctrine is a bit disjointed (MAGA) and also interferes internally in the EU with opinions on what we may and may not decide. USA is now siding with Russia and China (at least equating these as those who "decide" going forward), which will lead to masses of new conflict areas where the new "untouchables" believe they have a right to others' territories or influence over what they may decide.
Well, that's what happens if you're too naive and gullible for too long. Perhaps if Europe would occasionally think about something other than bottle caps not coming off plastic bottles and such important things =)
Näytä vielä 3 kommenttia
Näytä 1 vastaus
Näytä enemmän
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
GermanyXetra
Määrä
Osto
0
0,00
Myynti
Määrä
0,00
0
Viimeisimmät kaupat
Aika
Hinta
Määrä
Ostaja
Myyjä
-
-
-
-
-
Ylin
1 594,5
VWAP
1 573,5
Alin
1 543,5
VaihtoMäärä
325,6 206 949
VWAP
1 573,5
Ylin
1 594,5
Alin
1 543,5
VaihtoMäärä
325,6 206 949
Tietoa osakekaupankäyntiin liittyvistä riskeistä
Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.