2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
3 päivää sitten
‧57 min
8,50 DKK/osake
Viimeisin osinko
11,85%Tuotto/v
Tarjoustasot
Nasdaq Copenhagen
Määrä
Osto
-
Myynti
Määrä
-
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 029 | - | - | ||
| 1 998 | - | - | ||
| 120 | - | - | ||
| 181 | - | - | ||
| 4 375 | - | - |
Ylin
73,5VWAP
Alin
66,2VaihtoMäärä
112 1 642 371
VWAP
Ylin
73,5Alin
66,2VaihtoMäärä
112 1 642 371
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 20.5. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 5.3. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 12.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 28.8.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 21.5.2025 | ||
Vuosittainen yhtiökokous 2025 9.4.2025 |
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
Kirjaudu
·10 t sitten · MuokattuIsn't it just as good if Americans buy STG? The P/S ratio is 10 times higher than competitors in America and confidence in the board and management is higher there. It would be a good deal for buyers and us shareholders in STG. Play with the thought that STG's revenue becomes part of Philip Morris's revenue. Look at what Swedish Match was sold for. I was forced to average down significantly in the call yesterday.
·8 t sittenIt wouldn't matter.·7 t sittenClearly it matters Every investment crown is valued 10 times higher in PM
·13 t sittenPart 3 – Management and the board must get to work - NOW The role of management and the board is central in the assessment of STG during the current transition period. The company is not in a life-threatening crisis, but in a situation where confidence in the execution of the Focus2030 strategy has been weakened after the financial report for 2025. The most significant criticism is directed at the communication to the market in the months leading up to the annual report. A central criticism in my analysis is that management did not issue a profit warning before the publication of the annual report. Free cash flow before acquisitions fell significantly from 2024 to 2025 and ended around 595 mio. DKK against previously around 1 mia. DKK. Compared to market expectations, this corresponds to a fall of around 36 %, which is a significant negative deviation. Such a large drop in cash flow should, according to common market practice, have been communicated earlier to investors. When such a central KPI as free cash flow falls to that extent, it directly changes the assessment of the company's capital allocation, dividend capacity, and gearing. Therefore, the absence of a profit warning can in practice be considered a guidance error on cash flow. In my assessment, management should have updated the market already in the first half of February 2026, as it must have been clear by then that cash flow for 2025 would be significantly weaker than expected. The lack of such an update probably contributed to the very violent market reaction, because investors were confronted with both lower cash flow and a reduced dividend at once. This episode raises a broader question about governance and capital discipline. When a company moves from a stable dividend case to a turnaround case, the quality of management's communication with the market becomes even more important. We investors normally accept weaker results if informed in time, but react much more strongly if negative surprises are only presented in connection with the report itself. At board level, there can therefore be an argument for a need to strengthen competencies in capital allocation, strategic transformation, and capital market communication. Focus2030 is an ambitious strategy, but its credibility largely depends on disciplined execution and transparent dialogue with us shareholders. The crucial task for management and the board in the coming 12–24 months will therefore not only be to improve margins and cash flow, but also to rebuild market confidence in the company's guidance and financial objectives. Remember I am a happy amateur investor who has too much time on my hands in my old age, so take everything with a grain of salt.- ·13 t sittenPart 2 - Price target and valuation The conservative value estimated via a DCF model is around 55–65, depending on assumptions about discount rate and long-term cash flow normalization. The market's analyst consensus is around 80, which reflects an expectation of stabilization in 2026 and gradual improvement in earnings and cash conversion. My base case target is around 78–81. This scenario assumes that 2026 will be a stabilization year, where margins and cash flow gradually improve, but without a full turnaround yet. In a more positive scenario, where Focus2030 quickly begins to deliver improvements in cash flow and ROIC, I estimate a bull case interval of 95–100. Conversely, a scenario with continued weak cash flow, new guidance uncertainty, or further confidence issues could push the stock down into a bear case interval of 50–60. Overall assessment After the share price collapse in March 2026, STG appears as a classic value and turnaround case. The stock is numerically cheap on traditional multiples, but the market now demands clear documentation of improvements in cash flow, margins, and return on capital. The most realistic 12-month scenario is therefore a gradual stabilization towards 78–81, with a longer-term potential towards 95–100, if the Focus2030 strategy actually succeeds. Remember I am a happy amateur investor who has had too much time on my hands in my old age, so take everything with a grain of salt.
- ·13 t sittenPart 1. When I commented on Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STG) on 12. November 2025, my assessment was that the company still had a strong business model, but that the return on capital had become too weak. Falling ROIC and margin pressure showed that management had focused too much on volume rather than profitability. Therefore, I argued for a strategic shift with a greater focus on capital discipline, efficiency, and a more profitable product mix. At the same time, I believed there was a need for a strengthened board of directors that could more clearly ensure focus on return on capital and strategic discipline. When the company presented the Focus2030 strategy on 19. November, the direction was largely in line with these wishes. The strategy emphasized higher ROIC, greater capital discipline, and growth in premium and nicotine products. Management set ambitious financial targets, including ROIC ≥ 11 % and free cash flow of at least 1,2 mia. DKK in 2030, which on paper could form the basis for a structural revaluation of the stock. But…. the development in 2025 showed, however, how challenged the earnings quality had already become. Free cash flow before acquisitions fell from 931 mio. DKK in 2024 to 595 mio. DKK in 2025, corresponding to a decrease of 336 mio. DKK or approx. 36 %. At the same time, the EBITDA margin fell from 22,6 % to 19,8 %, and ROIC was reduced to 7,9 %. A significant weakening in the company's ability to convert revenue into cash and return on capital. When the annual report for 2025 was published in March 2026, this weakening became truly evident to the market. At the same time, the dividend was significantly reduced, and management acknowledged that 2026 would primarily be a stabilization year. The reaction was violent: the stock fell from around 100 DKK to 66 DKK in a few days, accompanied by extreme trading volume. The analysis of the investor base (it does not appear that any of the major shareholders sold out) suggests that the decline was not only due to fundamental conditions but also a structural shift in the investor base. Dividend-oriented shareholders reduced their positions after the dividend cut – I don't think they have read or understood Focus2030, while institutional funds and quantitative strategies likely amplified the selling pressure through mechanical portfolio adjustments. The result was a capitulation, where STG went from being considered a stable dividend stock to being perceived as a turnaround case, where management must first prove improvements in cash flow, margins, and ROIC. Remember I am a happy amateur investor who has gotten too much time on my hands in my old age, so take everything with a grain of salt.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
3 päivää sitten
‧57 min
8,50 DKK/osake
Viimeisin osinko
11,85%Tuotto/v
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
Kirjaudu
- ·10 t sitten · MuokattuIsn't it just as good if Americans buy STG? The P/S ratio is 10 times higher than competitors in America and confidence in the board and management is higher there. It would be a good deal for buyers and us shareholders in STG. Play with the thought that STG's revenue becomes part of Philip Morris's revenue. Look at what Swedish Match was sold for. I was forced to average down significantly in the call yesterday.·8 t sittenIt wouldn't matter.·7 t sittenClearly it matters Every investment crown is valued 10 times higher in PM
- ·13 t sittenPart 3 – Management and the board must get to work - NOW The role of management and the board is central in the assessment of STG during the current transition period. The company is not in a life-threatening crisis, but in a situation where confidence in the execution of the Focus2030 strategy has been weakened after the financial report for 2025. The most significant criticism is directed at the communication to the market in the months leading up to the annual report. A central criticism in my analysis is that management did not issue a profit warning before the publication of the annual report. Free cash flow before acquisitions fell significantly from 2024 to 2025 and ended around 595 mio. DKK against previously around 1 mia. DKK. Compared to market expectations, this corresponds to a fall of around 36 %, which is a significant negative deviation. Such a large drop in cash flow should, according to common market practice, have been communicated earlier to investors. When such a central KPI as free cash flow falls to that extent, it directly changes the assessment of the company's capital allocation, dividend capacity, and gearing. Therefore, the absence of a profit warning can in practice be considered a guidance error on cash flow. In my assessment, management should have updated the market already in the first half of February 2026, as it must have been clear by then that cash flow for 2025 would be significantly weaker than expected. The lack of such an update probably contributed to the very violent market reaction, because investors were confronted with both lower cash flow and a reduced dividend at once. This episode raises a broader question about governance and capital discipline. When a company moves from a stable dividend case to a turnaround case, the quality of management's communication with the market becomes even more important. We investors normally accept weaker results if informed in time, but react much more strongly if negative surprises are only presented in connection with the report itself. At board level, there can therefore be an argument for a need to strengthen competencies in capital allocation, strategic transformation, and capital market communication. Focus2030 is an ambitious strategy, but its credibility largely depends on disciplined execution and transparent dialogue with us shareholders. The crucial task for management and the board in the coming 12–24 months will therefore not only be to improve margins and cash flow, but also to rebuild market confidence in the company's guidance and financial objectives. Remember I am a happy amateur investor who has too much time on my hands in my old age, so take everything with a grain of salt.
- ·13 t sittenPart 2 - Price target and valuation The conservative value estimated via a DCF model is around 55–65, depending on assumptions about discount rate and long-term cash flow normalization. The market's analyst consensus is around 80, which reflects an expectation of stabilization in 2026 and gradual improvement in earnings and cash conversion. My base case target is around 78–81. This scenario assumes that 2026 will be a stabilization year, where margins and cash flow gradually improve, but without a full turnaround yet. In a more positive scenario, where Focus2030 quickly begins to deliver improvements in cash flow and ROIC, I estimate a bull case interval of 95–100. Conversely, a scenario with continued weak cash flow, new guidance uncertainty, or further confidence issues could push the stock down into a bear case interval of 50–60. Overall assessment After the share price collapse in March 2026, STG appears as a classic value and turnaround case. The stock is numerically cheap on traditional multiples, but the market now demands clear documentation of improvements in cash flow, margins, and return on capital. The most realistic 12-month scenario is therefore a gradual stabilization towards 78–81, with a longer-term potential towards 95–100, if the Focus2030 strategy actually succeeds. Remember I am a happy amateur investor who has had too much time on my hands in my old age, so take everything with a grain of salt.
- ·13 t sittenPart 1. When I commented on Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STG) on 12. November 2025, my assessment was that the company still had a strong business model, but that the return on capital had become too weak. Falling ROIC and margin pressure showed that management had focused too much on volume rather than profitability. Therefore, I argued for a strategic shift with a greater focus on capital discipline, efficiency, and a more profitable product mix. At the same time, I believed there was a need for a strengthened board of directors that could more clearly ensure focus on return on capital and strategic discipline. When the company presented the Focus2030 strategy on 19. November, the direction was largely in line with these wishes. The strategy emphasized higher ROIC, greater capital discipline, and growth in premium and nicotine products. Management set ambitious financial targets, including ROIC ≥ 11 % and free cash flow of at least 1,2 mia. DKK in 2030, which on paper could form the basis for a structural revaluation of the stock. But…. the development in 2025 showed, however, how challenged the earnings quality had already become. Free cash flow before acquisitions fell from 931 mio. DKK in 2024 to 595 mio. DKK in 2025, corresponding to a decrease of 336 mio. DKK or approx. 36 %. At the same time, the EBITDA margin fell from 22,6 % to 19,8 %, and ROIC was reduced to 7,9 %. A significant weakening in the company's ability to convert revenue into cash and return on capital. When the annual report for 2025 was published in March 2026, this weakening became truly evident to the market. At the same time, the dividend was significantly reduced, and management acknowledged that 2026 would primarily be a stabilization year. The reaction was violent: the stock fell from around 100 DKK to 66 DKK in a few days, accompanied by extreme trading volume. The analysis of the investor base (it does not appear that any of the major shareholders sold out) suggests that the decline was not only due to fundamental conditions but also a structural shift in the investor base. Dividend-oriented shareholders reduced their positions after the dividend cut – I don't think they have read or understood Focus2030, while institutional funds and quantitative strategies likely amplified the selling pressure through mechanical portfolio adjustments. The result was a capitulation, where STG went from being considered a stable dividend stock to being perceived as a turnaround case, where management must first prove improvements in cash flow, margins, and ROIC. Remember I am a happy amateur investor who has gotten too much time on my hands in my old age, so take everything with a grain of salt.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Nasdaq Copenhagen
Määrä
Osto
-
Myynti
Määrä
-
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 029 | - | - | ||
| 1 998 | - | - | ||
| 120 | - | - | ||
| 181 | - | - | ||
| 4 375 | - | - |
Ylin
73,5VWAP
Alin
66,2VaihtoMäärä
112 1 642 371
VWAP
Ylin
73,5Alin
66,2VaihtoMäärä
112 1 642 371
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 20.5. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 5.3. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 12.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 28.8.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 21.5.2025 | ||
Vuosittainen yhtiökokous 2025 9.4.2025 |
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
3 päivää sitten
‧57 min
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 20.5. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 5.3. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 12.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 28.8.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 21.5.2025 | ||
Vuosittainen yhtiökokous 2025 9.4.2025 |
8,50 DKK/osake
Viimeisin osinko
11,85%Tuotto/v
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
Kirjaudu
- ·10 t sitten · MuokattuIsn't it just as good if Americans buy STG? The P/S ratio is 10 times higher than competitors in America and confidence in the board and management is higher there. It would be a good deal for buyers and us shareholders in STG. Play with the thought that STG's revenue becomes part of Philip Morris's revenue. Look at what Swedish Match was sold for. I was forced to average down significantly in the call yesterday.·8 t sittenIt wouldn't matter.·7 t sittenClearly it matters Every investment crown is valued 10 times higher in PM
- ·13 t sittenPart 3 – Management and the board must get to work - NOW The role of management and the board is central in the assessment of STG during the current transition period. The company is not in a life-threatening crisis, but in a situation where confidence in the execution of the Focus2030 strategy has been weakened after the financial report for 2025. The most significant criticism is directed at the communication to the market in the months leading up to the annual report. A central criticism in my analysis is that management did not issue a profit warning before the publication of the annual report. Free cash flow before acquisitions fell significantly from 2024 to 2025 and ended around 595 mio. DKK against previously around 1 mia. DKK. Compared to market expectations, this corresponds to a fall of around 36 %, which is a significant negative deviation. Such a large drop in cash flow should, according to common market practice, have been communicated earlier to investors. When such a central KPI as free cash flow falls to that extent, it directly changes the assessment of the company's capital allocation, dividend capacity, and gearing. Therefore, the absence of a profit warning can in practice be considered a guidance error on cash flow. In my assessment, management should have updated the market already in the first half of February 2026, as it must have been clear by then that cash flow for 2025 would be significantly weaker than expected. The lack of such an update probably contributed to the very violent market reaction, because investors were confronted with both lower cash flow and a reduced dividend at once. This episode raises a broader question about governance and capital discipline. When a company moves from a stable dividend case to a turnaround case, the quality of management's communication with the market becomes even more important. We investors normally accept weaker results if informed in time, but react much more strongly if negative surprises are only presented in connection with the report itself. At board level, there can therefore be an argument for a need to strengthen competencies in capital allocation, strategic transformation, and capital market communication. Focus2030 is an ambitious strategy, but its credibility largely depends on disciplined execution and transparent dialogue with us shareholders. The crucial task for management and the board in the coming 12–24 months will therefore not only be to improve margins and cash flow, but also to rebuild market confidence in the company's guidance and financial objectives. Remember I am a happy amateur investor who has too much time on my hands in my old age, so take everything with a grain of salt.
- ·13 t sittenPart 2 - Price target and valuation The conservative value estimated via a DCF model is around 55–65, depending on assumptions about discount rate and long-term cash flow normalization. The market's analyst consensus is around 80, which reflects an expectation of stabilization in 2026 and gradual improvement in earnings and cash conversion. My base case target is around 78–81. This scenario assumes that 2026 will be a stabilization year, where margins and cash flow gradually improve, but without a full turnaround yet. In a more positive scenario, where Focus2030 quickly begins to deliver improvements in cash flow and ROIC, I estimate a bull case interval of 95–100. Conversely, a scenario with continued weak cash flow, new guidance uncertainty, or further confidence issues could push the stock down into a bear case interval of 50–60. Overall assessment After the share price collapse in March 2026, STG appears as a classic value and turnaround case. The stock is numerically cheap on traditional multiples, but the market now demands clear documentation of improvements in cash flow, margins, and return on capital. The most realistic 12-month scenario is therefore a gradual stabilization towards 78–81, with a longer-term potential towards 95–100, if the Focus2030 strategy actually succeeds. Remember I am a happy amateur investor who has had too much time on my hands in my old age, so take everything with a grain of salt.
- ·13 t sittenPart 1. When I commented on Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STG) on 12. November 2025, my assessment was that the company still had a strong business model, but that the return on capital had become too weak. Falling ROIC and margin pressure showed that management had focused too much on volume rather than profitability. Therefore, I argued for a strategic shift with a greater focus on capital discipline, efficiency, and a more profitable product mix. At the same time, I believed there was a need for a strengthened board of directors that could more clearly ensure focus on return on capital and strategic discipline. When the company presented the Focus2030 strategy on 19. November, the direction was largely in line with these wishes. The strategy emphasized higher ROIC, greater capital discipline, and growth in premium and nicotine products. Management set ambitious financial targets, including ROIC ≥ 11 % and free cash flow of at least 1,2 mia. DKK in 2030, which on paper could form the basis for a structural revaluation of the stock. But…. the development in 2025 showed, however, how challenged the earnings quality had already become. Free cash flow before acquisitions fell from 931 mio. DKK in 2024 to 595 mio. DKK in 2025, corresponding to a decrease of 336 mio. DKK or approx. 36 %. At the same time, the EBITDA margin fell from 22,6 % to 19,8 %, and ROIC was reduced to 7,9 %. A significant weakening in the company's ability to convert revenue into cash and return on capital. When the annual report for 2025 was published in March 2026, this weakening became truly evident to the market. At the same time, the dividend was significantly reduced, and management acknowledged that 2026 would primarily be a stabilization year. The reaction was violent: the stock fell from around 100 DKK to 66 DKK in a few days, accompanied by extreme trading volume. The analysis of the investor base (it does not appear that any of the major shareholders sold out) suggests that the decline was not only due to fundamental conditions but also a structural shift in the investor base. Dividend-oriented shareholders reduced their positions after the dividend cut – I don't think they have read or understood Focus2030, while institutional funds and quantitative strategies likely amplified the selling pressure through mechanical portfolio adjustments. The result was a capitulation, where STG went from being considered a stable dividend stock to being perceived as a turnaround case, where management must first prove improvements in cash flow, margins, and ROIC. Remember I am a happy amateur investor who has gotten too much time on my hands in my old age, so take everything with a grain of salt.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Nasdaq Copenhagen
Määrä
Osto
-
Myynti
Määrä
-
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 029 | - | - | ||
| 1 998 | - | - | ||
| 120 | - | - | ||
| 181 | - | - | ||
| 4 375 | - | - |
Ylin
73,5VWAP
Alin
66,2VaihtoMäärä
112 1 642 371
VWAP
Ylin
73,5Alin
66,2VaihtoMäärä
112 1 642 371
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt