2026 Q1 -tulosraportti
68 päivää sitten
‧33 min
0,39 USD/osake
Irtoamispäivä 13.8.
4,44%Tuotto/v
Tarjoustasot
Ei dataa
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - | - |
Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 22.7. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 6.5. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 4.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 29.10.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 23.7.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 30.4.2025 |
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
·24 min sittenOh great, inventories are being drawn down at a record pace at a time when we are supposed to stock up for winter. It will be interesting to see where this ends.
·6 t sitten · MuokattuThe Main Index (OSEBX) has given a technical sell signal. OSEBX closed before the weekend at 1932.39 (-0.42%). Investtech's automatic technical analysis has now turned to sell in the medium term (1–6 months). The background is a double top formation with peaks at 2081 and 2058 points, with a neckline at approx. 1968. This support has now been broken, and the formation signals further decline towards 1876 or lower. The previous support level around 1970 now acts as resistance in case of any reactions back up. The volume balance confirms the weak picture. Worth noting: the index is still in a rising trend channel in the longer term, so the technical picture is not unambiguously negative across all time horizons – but the medium term is now technically negative. How do you assess this – a temporary correction in a still rising trend, or the start of something more? Source: Investtech.com Disclaimer: I own AuAg Silver Bullet. This is not investment advice, only my own observations.- 16 t sittenOil at a Crossroads: A $40 Glut Scenario Collides With a Live Hormuz Crisis Oil markets are being pulled in two directions at once, and this past week made that unusually clear. On one side sits the bear case that dominated headlines just days ago: a market moving into structural oversupply. SEB oil analyst Ole Hvalbye told Nettavisen that the consensus among analysts points to prices settling around $60–70 a barrel over time. Capital Economics' Kieran Tompkins told CNN that $60 oil is realistic next year and $50 possible by 2028, and CNN reported that Saudi Arabia could, in a more extreme scenario, force prices down toward $40 by ramping up output to punish rivals within a fracturing OPEC. Macquarie's Vikas Dwivedi called that outcome unlikely but not impossible. JPMorgan's Natasha Kaneva has flagged a temporary glut risk as oil trapped by the war re-enters a market that hasn't fully absorbed it, and Saudi Arabia backed that view with its own pricing: Saudi Aramco just cut its official selling price to Asia by $11 a barrel for August, the steepest cut in more than two decades, as it competes for market share against returning supply. That fight for share has a structural driver too: the UAE walked away from both OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, ending nearly six decades of membership, and is now free to chase its own production targets without a quota ceiling. On the other side is the risk this bear case has consistently underestimated, and it stopped being theoretical this weekend. After Iranian forces struck a Cyprus-flagged container ship on July 11, the IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed until further notice. The US answered overnight with strikes on roughly 140 Iranian sites, and Iran retaliated on Sunday with attacks across Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and Oman. President Trump said he now considers the ceasefire that reopened the strait in June effectively over, though he has left the door open to talks. Washington insists the strait remains open and traffic is flowing; Tehran maintains ships still cannot get through. Brent had already climbed back above $76 earlier in the week on the first round of strikes, up sharply from lows near $72 just before Aramco's price cut. That is the asymmetry worth sitting with. A market pricing in oversupply out to 2028 sits right next to a live exchange of strikes around the one chokepoint carrying roughly a fifth of the world's oil and gas trade. A durable de-escalation would let the glut case play out and pull oil toward the $50–60 range investors keep citing. A prolonged closure would push the other way, and fast. That same swing runs straight through the inflation–Fed–real rates chain that has driven silver's moves all year, which is exactly why oil deserves attention here, not just precious metals in isolation. Where do you think this settles: does the ceasefire get patched together again, or has that window already closed? Sources: https://www.nettavisen.no/nyheter/analytikere-spar-esktrem-priser-nede-pa-40-dollar-oljefatet/s/5-95-3135197https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/06/economy/the-fight-for-the-future-of-opec-begins-nowhttps://www.irishtimes.com/world/us/2026/07/12/us-and-iran-exchange-fresh-strikes-as-tehran-says-strait-of-hormuz-is-closed/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-06/saudis-make-biggest-oil-price-cut-in-decades-as-market-weakenshttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/08/oil-prices-brent-wti-iran-us-hormuz.htmlhttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67804 Disclaimer: This is not investment advice, only my own analysis and assessment.
According to the agreement, the ceasefire applied to all fronts. With this, Saudi has also broken it. Soon the entrance to the Red Sea will be closed. Germany's Chancellor Mertz has said that international laws should not apply to Iran. Iranians know that one cannot tame a scorpion, it will bite regardless. Iran has taken control of the Strait of Hormuz and it shall be under their control to have the scorpion in the cage. Good luck Trump, Netanyahu and Mertz with opening the Strait of Hormuz https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88W3fl_mnPg - 17 t sittenThe Long Bet Against Hormuz The market keeps asking whether the Strait of Hormuz is "open" or "closed." After five months of war, tanker attacks, and Iranian control over the world's most important oil chokepoint, that's the wrong question. The real one: what are exporters doing to make Hormuz matter less? Saudi Arabia is weighing a 1–2 million bpd expansion of its East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, already running near its 7 million bpd capacity. Riyadh is in early talks with Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar to share the system — a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar project that would also require reworking how Saudi crude is priced. The UAE is about halfway through a new pipeline that will double export capacity to Fujairah, on the Gulf of Oman. It's due online in 2027, on top of the existing 1.5–1.8 million bpd ADCOP line. Iraq, hit hardest — output fell from 4.3 million to under 1.5 million bpd in May — is moving on three fronts at once: the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey is back above 200,000 bpd; construction started May 1 on the 700km, 2.5 million bpd Basra-Haditha line feeding Ceyhan, Baniyas and Aqaba; and Baghdad approved a preliminary agreement on July 4 with Chevron, Capital TI and Qatar's UCC to study those routes. Iraq also signed fresh production deals with HKN Energy and Halliburton this month, ahead of PM al-Zaidi's July 14 Washington visit. Two caveats worth keeping in mind. Even fully built, combined bypass capacity would cover only a fraction of Hormuz's roughly 20 million bpd peacetime throughput — this reduces the dependency, it doesn't remove it. And the bypass infrastructure itself has already been targeted: drone strikes hit Fujairah in March, and an attack near Yanbu cost Saudi Arabia some 700,000 bpd of capacity for a period. None of this solves today's crisis. What it signals is how long exporters expect the Hormuz risk to last. Markets tend to price this week's headlines; this infrastructure is being built for the next decade — and that mismatch in time horizon is part of why oil is so hard to read right now. Is the market pricing this correctly, or underestimating how long it'll take before these corridors actually move the needle? Sources: - Reuters, via AGBI — Saudi Arabia considers expansion of Red Sea oil pipeline: https://www.agbi.com/oil-and-gas/2026/07/saudi-arabia-considers-expansion-of-red-sea-oil-pipeline/ - Reuters, via Arab News — Saudi Arabia considers expansion of oil pipeline to Red Sea, sources say: https://www.arabnews.com/node/2649962/business-economy - Reuters, via The National — Iraq starts work on Basra-Haditha oil pipeline: https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2026/05/01/iraq-starts-work-on-basra-haditha-pipeline-for-crude-exports/ - Reuters, via BOE Report — Iraq approves preliminary agreements to study strategic oil export pipeline projects: https://boereport.com/2026/07/05/iraq-approves-preliminary-agreements-to-study-strategic-oil-export-pipeline-projects/ - Reuters, via AGBI — Iraq signs deals with two US oil companies to raise output: https://www.agbi.com/oil-and-gas/2026/07/iraq-signs-deals-with-two-us-oil-companies-to-raise-output/ - Atlantic Council — New Middle East corridors are about more than just bypassing the Strait of Hormuz: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/new-middle-east-corridors-are-about-more-than-just-bypassing-the-strait-of-hormuz/ - Kpler — Beyond Hormuz: The pipeline routes that could reshape Gulf oil flows: https://www.kpler.com/blog/beyond-hormuz-the-pipeline-routes-that-could-reshape-gulf-oil-flows Disclaimer: Not investment advice — my own analysis of publicly available information. I currently hold a position in AuAg Silver Bullet. Always do your own research before investing.
·22 t sittenIran started a new round of attacks, the target included US Himars missiles in Kuwait near the border + Kuwaiti oil drilling platform. Iran will escalate sharply as they have loved Trump. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/07/12/live-hormuz-shipping-uae-missile-alert-us-iran-war/ Most comical is that Arabs shoot down all Iranian missiles while satellite images from earlier show that not much is left of many American bases in the Arab countries. ......... Former American colonel Daniel Davis and current political analyst tell what is happening now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NiDRsL7d_I
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti
68 päivää sitten
‧33 min
0,39 USD/osake
Irtoamispäivä 13.8.
4,44%Tuotto/v
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
- ·24 min sittenOh great, inventories are being drawn down at a record pace at a time when we are supposed to stock up for winter. It will be interesting to see where this ends.
- ·6 t sitten · MuokattuThe Main Index (OSEBX) has given a technical sell signal. OSEBX closed before the weekend at 1932.39 (-0.42%). Investtech's automatic technical analysis has now turned to sell in the medium term (1–6 months). The background is a double top formation with peaks at 2081 and 2058 points, with a neckline at approx. 1968. This support has now been broken, and the formation signals further decline towards 1876 or lower. The previous support level around 1970 now acts as resistance in case of any reactions back up. The volume balance confirms the weak picture. Worth noting: the index is still in a rising trend channel in the longer term, so the technical picture is not unambiguously negative across all time horizons – but the medium term is now technically negative. How do you assess this – a temporary correction in a still rising trend, or the start of something more? Source: Investtech.com Disclaimer: I own AuAg Silver Bullet. This is not investment advice, only my own observations.
- 16 t sittenOil at a Crossroads: A $40 Glut Scenario Collides With a Live Hormuz Crisis Oil markets are being pulled in two directions at once, and this past week made that unusually clear. On one side sits the bear case that dominated headlines just days ago: a market moving into structural oversupply. SEB oil analyst Ole Hvalbye told Nettavisen that the consensus among analysts points to prices settling around $60–70 a barrel over time. Capital Economics' Kieran Tompkins told CNN that $60 oil is realistic next year and $50 possible by 2028, and CNN reported that Saudi Arabia could, in a more extreme scenario, force prices down toward $40 by ramping up output to punish rivals within a fracturing OPEC. Macquarie's Vikas Dwivedi called that outcome unlikely but not impossible. JPMorgan's Natasha Kaneva has flagged a temporary glut risk as oil trapped by the war re-enters a market that hasn't fully absorbed it, and Saudi Arabia backed that view with its own pricing: Saudi Aramco just cut its official selling price to Asia by $11 a barrel for August, the steepest cut in more than two decades, as it competes for market share against returning supply. That fight for share has a structural driver too: the UAE walked away from both OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, ending nearly six decades of membership, and is now free to chase its own production targets without a quota ceiling. On the other side is the risk this bear case has consistently underestimated, and it stopped being theoretical this weekend. After Iranian forces struck a Cyprus-flagged container ship on July 11, the IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed until further notice. The US answered overnight with strikes on roughly 140 Iranian sites, and Iran retaliated on Sunday with attacks across Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and Oman. President Trump said he now considers the ceasefire that reopened the strait in June effectively over, though he has left the door open to talks. Washington insists the strait remains open and traffic is flowing; Tehran maintains ships still cannot get through. Brent had already climbed back above $76 earlier in the week on the first round of strikes, up sharply from lows near $72 just before Aramco's price cut. That is the asymmetry worth sitting with. A market pricing in oversupply out to 2028 sits right next to a live exchange of strikes around the one chokepoint carrying roughly a fifth of the world's oil and gas trade. A durable de-escalation would let the glut case play out and pull oil toward the $50–60 range investors keep citing. A prolonged closure would push the other way, and fast. That same swing runs straight through the inflation–Fed–real rates chain that has driven silver's moves all year, which is exactly why oil deserves attention here, not just precious metals in isolation. Where do you think this settles: does the ceasefire get patched together again, or has that window already closed? Sources: https://www.nettavisen.no/nyheter/analytikere-spar-esktrem-priser-nede-pa-40-dollar-oljefatet/s/5-95-3135197https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/06/economy/the-fight-for-the-future-of-opec-begins-nowhttps://www.irishtimes.com/world/us/2026/07/12/us-and-iran-exchange-fresh-strikes-as-tehran-says-strait-of-hormuz-is-closed/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-06/saudis-make-biggest-oil-price-cut-in-decades-as-market-weakenshttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/08/oil-prices-brent-wti-iran-us-hormuz.htmlhttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67804 Disclaimer: This is not investment advice, only my own analysis and assessment.According to the agreement, the ceasefire applied to all fronts. With this, Saudi has also broken it. Soon the entrance to the Red Sea will be closed. Germany's Chancellor Mertz has said that international laws should not apply to Iran. Iranians know that one cannot tame a scorpion, it will bite regardless. Iran has taken control of the Strait of Hormuz and it shall be under their control to have the scorpion in the cage. Good luck Trump, Netanyahu and Mertz with opening the Strait of Hormuz https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88W3fl_mnPg
- 17 t sittenThe Long Bet Against Hormuz The market keeps asking whether the Strait of Hormuz is "open" or "closed." After five months of war, tanker attacks, and Iranian control over the world's most important oil chokepoint, that's the wrong question. The real one: what are exporters doing to make Hormuz matter less? Saudi Arabia is weighing a 1–2 million bpd expansion of its East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, already running near its 7 million bpd capacity. Riyadh is in early talks with Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar to share the system — a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar project that would also require reworking how Saudi crude is priced. The UAE is about halfway through a new pipeline that will double export capacity to Fujairah, on the Gulf of Oman. It's due online in 2027, on top of the existing 1.5–1.8 million bpd ADCOP line. Iraq, hit hardest — output fell from 4.3 million to under 1.5 million bpd in May — is moving on three fronts at once: the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey is back above 200,000 bpd; construction started May 1 on the 700km, 2.5 million bpd Basra-Haditha line feeding Ceyhan, Baniyas and Aqaba; and Baghdad approved a preliminary agreement on July 4 with Chevron, Capital TI and Qatar's UCC to study those routes. Iraq also signed fresh production deals with HKN Energy and Halliburton this month, ahead of PM al-Zaidi's July 14 Washington visit. Two caveats worth keeping in mind. Even fully built, combined bypass capacity would cover only a fraction of Hormuz's roughly 20 million bpd peacetime throughput — this reduces the dependency, it doesn't remove it. And the bypass infrastructure itself has already been targeted: drone strikes hit Fujairah in March, and an attack near Yanbu cost Saudi Arabia some 700,000 bpd of capacity for a period. None of this solves today's crisis. What it signals is how long exporters expect the Hormuz risk to last. Markets tend to price this week's headlines; this infrastructure is being built for the next decade — and that mismatch in time horizon is part of why oil is so hard to read right now. Is the market pricing this correctly, or underestimating how long it'll take before these corridors actually move the needle? Sources: - Reuters, via AGBI — Saudi Arabia considers expansion of Red Sea oil pipeline: https://www.agbi.com/oil-and-gas/2026/07/saudi-arabia-considers-expansion-of-red-sea-oil-pipeline/ - Reuters, via Arab News — Saudi Arabia considers expansion of oil pipeline to Red Sea, sources say: https://www.arabnews.com/node/2649962/business-economy - Reuters, via The National — Iraq starts work on Basra-Haditha oil pipeline: https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2026/05/01/iraq-starts-work-on-basra-haditha-pipeline-for-crude-exports/ - Reuters, via BOE Report — Iraq approves preliminary agreements to study strategic oil export pipeline projects: https://boereport.com/2026/07/05/iraq-approves-preliminary-agreements-to-study-strategic-oil-export-pipeline-projects/ - Reuters, via AGBI — Iraq signs deals with two US oil companies to raise output: https://www.agbi.com/oil-and-gas/2026/07/iraq-signs-deals-with-two-us-oil-companies-to-raise-output/ - Atlantic Council — New Middle East corridors are about more than just bypassing the Strait of Hormuz: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/new-middle-east-corridors-are-about-more-than-just-bypassing-the-strait-of-hormuz/ - Kpler — Beyond Hormuz: The pipeline routes that could reshape Gulf oil flows: https://www.kpler.com/blog/beyond-hormuz-the-pipeline-routes-that-could-reshape-gulf-oil-flows Disclaimer: Not investment advice — my own analysis of publicly available information. I currently hold a position in AuAg Silver Bullet. Always do your own research before investing.
- ·22 t sittenIran started a new round of attacks, the target included US Himars missiles in Kuwait near the border + Kuwaiti oil drilling platform. Iran will escalate sharply as they have loved Trump. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/07/12/live-hormuz-shipping-uae-missile-alert-us-iran-war/ Most comical is that Arabs shoot down all Iranian missiles while satellite images from earlier show that not much is left of many American bases in the Arab countries. ......... Former American colonel Daniel Davis and current political analyst tell what is happening now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NiDRsL7d_I
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Ei dataa
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - | - |
Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 22.7. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 6.5. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 4.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 29.10.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 23.7.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 30.4.2025 |
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti
68 päivää sitten
‧33 min
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 22.7. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 6.5. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 4.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 29.10.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 23.7.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 30.4.2025 |
0,39 USD/osake
Irtoamispäivä 13.8.
4,44%Tuotto/v
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
- ·24 min sittenOh great, inventories are being drawn down at a record pace at a time when we are supposed to stock up for winter. It will be interesting to see where this ends.
- ·6 t sitten · MuokattuThe Main Index (OSEBX) has given a technical sell signal. OSEBX closed before the weekend at 1932.39 (-0.42%). Investtech's automatic technical analysis has now turned to sell in the medium term (1–6 months). The background is a double top formation with peaks at 2081 and 2058 points, with a neckline at approx. 1968. This support has now been broken, and the formation signals further decline towards 1876 or lower. The previous support level around 1970 now acts as resistance in case of any reactions back up. The volume balance confirms the weak picture. Worth noting: the index is still in a rising trend channel in the longer term, so the technical picture is not unambiguously negative across all time horizons – but the medium term is now technically negative. How do you assess this – a temporary correction in a still rising trend, or the start of something more? Source: Investtech.com Disclaimer: I own AuAg Silver Bullet. This is not investment advice, only my own observations.
- 16 t sittenOil at a Crossroads: A $40 Glut Scenario Collides With a Live Hormuz Crisis Oil markets are being pulled in two directions at once, and this past week made that unusually clear. On one side sits the bear case that dominated headlines just days ago: a market moving into structural oversupply. SEB oil analyst Ole Hvalbye told Nettavisen that the consensus among analysts points to prices settling around $60–70 a barrel over time. Capital Economics' Kieran Tompkins told CNN that $60 oil is realistic next year and $50 possible by 2028, and CNN reported that Saudi Arabia could, in a more extreme scenario, force prices down toward $40 by ramping up output to punish rivals within a fracturing OPEC. Macquarie's Vikas Dwivedi called that outcome unlikely but not impossible. JPMorgan's Natasha Kaneva has flagged a temporary glut risk as oil trapped by the war re-enters a market that hasn't fully absorbed it, and Saudi Arabia backed that view with its own pricing: Saudi Aramco just cut its official selling price to Asia by $11 a barrel for August, the steepest cut in more than two decades, as it competes for market share against returning supply. That fight for share has a structural driver too: the UAE walked away from both OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, ending nearly six decades of membership, and is now free to chase its own production targets without a quota ceiling. On the other side is the risk this bear case has consistently underestimated, and it stopped being theoretical this weekend. After Iranian forces struck a Cyprus-flagged container ship on July 11, the IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed until further notice. The US answered overnight with strikes on roughly 140 Iranian sites, and Iran retaliated on Sunday with attacks across Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and Oman. President Trump said he now considers the ceasefire that reopened the strait in June effectively over, though he has left the door open to talks. Washington insists the strait remains open and traffic is flowing; Tehran maintains ships still cannot get through. Brent had already climbed back above $76 earlier in the week on the first round of strikes, up sharply from lows near $72 just before Aramco's price cut. That is the asymmetry worth sitting with. A market pricing in oversupply out to 2028 sits right next to a live exchange of strikes around the one chokepoint carrying roughly a fifth of the world's oil and gas trade. A durable de-escalation would let the glut case play out and pull oil toward the $50–60 range investors keep citing. A prolonged closure would push the other way, and fast. That same swing runs straight through the inflation–Fed–real rates chain that has driven silver's moves all year, which is exactly why oil deserves attention here, not just precious metals in isolation. Where do you think this settles: does the ceasefire get patched together again, or has that window already closed? Sources: https://www.nettavisen.no/nyheter/analytikere-spar-esktrem-priser-nede-pa-40-dollar-oljefatet/s/5-95-3135197https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/06/economy/the-fight-for-the-future-of-opec-begins-nowhttps://www.irishtimes.com/world/us/2026/07/12/us-and-iran-exchange-fresh-strikes-as-tehran-says-strait-of-hormuz-is-closed/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-06/saudis-make-biggest-oil-price-cut-in-decades-as-market-weakenshttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/08/oil-prices-brent-wti-iran-us-hormuz.htmlhttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67804 Disclaimer: This is not investment advice, only my own analysis and assessment.According to the agreement, the ceasefire applied to all fronts. With this, Saudi has also broken it. Soon the entrance to the Red Sea will be closed. Germany's Chancellor Mertz has said that international laws should not apply to Iran. Iranians know that one cannot tame a scorpion, it will bite regardless. Iran has taken control of the Strait of Hormuz and it shall be under their control to have the scorpion in the cage. Good luck Trump, Netanyahu and Mertz with opening the Strait of Hormuz https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88W3fl_mnPg
- 17 t sittenThe Long Bet Against Hormuz The market keeps asking whether the Strait of Hormuz is "open" or "closed." After five months of war, tanker attacks, and Iranian control over the world's most important oil chokepoint, that's the wrong question. The real one: what are exporters doing to make Hormuz matter less? Saudi Arabia is weighing a 1–2 million bpd expansion of its East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, already running near its 7 million bpd capacity. Riyadh is in early talks with Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar to share the system — a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar project that would also require reworking how Saudi crude is priced. The UAE is about halfway through a new pipeline that will double export capacity to Fujairah, on the Gulf of Oman. It's due online in 2027, on top of the existing 1.5–1.8 million bpd ADCOP line. Iraq, hit hardest — output fell from 4.3 million to under 1.5 million bpd in May — is moving on three fronts at once: the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey is back above 200,000 bpd; construction started May 1 on the 700km, 2.5 million bpd Basra-Haditha line feeding Ceyhan, Baniyas and Aqaba; and Baghdad approved a preliminary agreement on July 4 with Chevron, Capital TI and Qatar's UCC to study those routes. Iraq also signed fresh production deals with HKN Energy and Halliburton this month, ahead of PM al-Zaidi's July 14 Washington visit. Two caveats worth keeping in mind. Even fully built, combined bypass capacity would cover only a fraction of Hormuz's roughly 20 million bpd peacetime throughput — this reduces the dependency, it doesn't remove it. And the bypass infrastructure itself has already been targeted: drone strikes hit Fujairah in March, and an attack near Yanbu cost Saudi Arabia some 700,000 bpd of capacity for a period. None of this solves today's crisis. What it signals is how long exporters expect the Hormuz risk to last. Markets tend to price this week's headlines; this infrastructure is being built for the next decade — and that mismatch in time horizon is part of why oil is so hard to read right now. Is the market pricing this correctly, or underestimating how long it'll take before these corridors actually move the needle? Sources: - Reuters, via AGBI — Saudi Arabia considers expansion of Red Sea oil pipeline: https://www.agbi.com/oil-and-gas/2026/07/saudi-arabia-considers-expansion-of-red-sea-oil-pipeline/ - Reuters, via Arab News — Saudi Arabia considers expansion of oil pipeline to Red Sea, sources say: https://www.arabnews.com/node/2649962/business-economy - Reuters, via The National — Iraq starts work on Basra-Haditha oil pipeline: https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2026/05/01/iraq-starts-work-on-basra-haditha-pipeline-for-crude-exports/ - Reuters, via BOE Report — Iraq approves preliminary agreements to study strategic oil export pipeline projects: https://boereport.com/2026/07/05/iraq-approves-preliminary-agreements-to-study-strategic-oil-export-pipeline-projects/ - Reuters, via AGBI — Iraq signs deals with two US oil companies to raise output: https://www.agbi.com/oil-and-gas/2026/07/iraq-signs-deals-with-two-us-oil-companies-to-raise-output/ - Atlantic Council — New Middle East corridors are about more than just bypassing the Strait of Hormuz: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/new-middle-east-corridors-are-about-more-than-just-bypassing-the-strait-of-hormuz/ - Kpler — Beyond Hormuz: The pipeline routes that could reshape Gulf oil flows: https://www.kpler.com/blog/beyond-hormuz-the-pipeline-routes-that-could-reshape-gulf-oil-flows Disclaimer: Not investment advice — my own analysis of publicly available information. I currently hold a position in AuAg Silver Bullet. Always do your own research before investing.
- ·22 t sittenIran started a new round of attacks, the target included US Himars missiles in Kuwait near the border + Kuwaiti oil drilling platform. Iran will escalate sharply as they have loved Trump. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/07/12/live-hormuz-shipping-uae-missile-alert-us-iran-war/ Most comical is that Arabs shoot down all Iranian missiles while satellite images from earlier show that not much is left of many American bases in the Arab countries. ......... Former American colonel Daniel Davis and current political analyst tell what is happening now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NiDRsL7d_I
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