2026 Q2 -tulosraportti
54 päivää sitten
‧28 min
3,6223 NOK/osake
Irtoamispäivä 13.11.
3,50%Tuotto/v
Tarjoustasot
Määrä
Osto
-
Myynti
Määrä
-
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | - | - | ||
| 17 | - | - | ||
| 207 | - | - | ||
| 280 | - | - | ||
| 72 | - | - |
Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Rahastot ja ETF:t, joilla on osaketta
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q3 -tulosraportti 28.10. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 22.7. | ||
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 6.5. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 4.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 29.10.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 23.7.2025 |
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
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·1 t sittenGreen day 🤫
The extra one-click button with a star, which made it possible to switch directly between all accounts and favorite accounts, has also been removed. Now three clicks are required to switch between these two views. What was previously a very efficient and intuitive solution has thus become unnecessarily cumbersome. At this point, the usability has gone from very good to directly bad. Overall, the new solution is significantly worse than the old one, both visually and in terms of usability. This is a clear setback, Nordnet.
12 t sittenThree paths for Equinor, and only one of them is a soft landing The question is not simply whether Brent ends up in the $80s in 2027. The more important question is how oil gets there. $80 oil is not, in itself, a crisis price. In Q1, Equinor realized $78.6 per barrel and still delivered $9.77 billion in adjusted operating income. The company’s own framework for share buybacks from 2027, NOK 2–4 billion annually, assumes oil at $60–80 per barrel and gas at $7–11 per MMBtu. Equinor has therefore planned for this price environment. But the path back to $80 matters. 1. Hormuz reopens and the market normalizes Oil falls back toward $80 as production volumes gradually return and European industrial activity recovers. This is the soft landing. Equinor retains strong production volumes while European gas demand can recover. Refining margins normalize, but without a major collapse in demand. 2. Demand collapses Oil falls toward $80 because the buyers disappear. That would be a much less favorable scenario for Equinor. Lower oil and gas prices would arrive at the same time as weaker gas demand and European industrial activity. Refining margins would normalize from exceptionally high levels, while the trading business could lose some of the volatility it benefits from. There is also the interest-rate channel. Warsh’s signals at Jackson Hole contributed to a shift in market expectations for US monetary policy. For a cyclical stock trading at elevated levels, a higher discount rate combined with weaker demand is a challenging combination. 3. Hormuz remains constrained Oil could remain well above $80, but this is not necessarily an unambiguously positive outcome for Equinor. A prolonged energy crisis could destroy demand, pressure European industry and contribute to tighter monetary policy. High oil prices benefit producers, but a progressively weaker customer base pulls in the opposite direction. America cannot solve this alone. The IEA estimates that the Americas Quintet, the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina, accounts for around 1.4 million barrels per day of non-OPEC+ supply growth in 2026. That is significant, but small compared with the production volumes still offline in the Gulf region. I therefore struggle to see a scenario where America alone delivers a soft landing toward the $80s. The one scenario that is genuinely favorable for Equinor therefore depends not primarily on geology. It depends on diplomacy. Which of the three scenarios do you put the most weight on? Not investment advice. I do not currently own Equinor. Written with assistance of AI. Sources: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/06/3288464/0/no/Equinors-resultater-for-f%C3%B8rste-kvartal-2026.html https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/16/3312355/0/no/Equinors-kapitalmarkedsdag-2026.html https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-september-2026 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/31/markets-see-warsh-endorsing-a-rate-hike-in-september-not-everyone-is-convinced.html
AI-battle! 🤖 The analysis has a good core idea: Brent at 80 dollars can mean very different things depending on why the price ends up there. But the conclusion that diplomacy and a rapid normalization of Hormuz is the only genuinely favorable scenario for Equinor is too strong. First, an important factual error: Equinor's planned buybacks from 2027 are 2–4 billion USD per year, not NOK. Furthermore, the framework is based on Brent 60–80 USD/barrel and European gas at 7–11 USD/MMBtu. That says something about how robust the company's base case is. 1. Persistently high energy prices do not necessarily have to be bad for Equinor A prolonged energy crisis harms the global economy and eventually destroys demand. But for Equinor, there are simultaneously several very strong positive effects: * Brent 100–110+ → much higher margins on oil production. * High TTF → very high profitability on Norwegian gas. * High refinery margins → positive for Equinor's refining. * High volatility → can benefit trading operations. Against this stand lower industrial demand, recession risk, and potentially higher interest rates. The question is therefore not whether an energy crisis is bad for the economy, but at what level and duration the negative second-order effects exceed Equinor's increased energy margins. IEA already anticipates significant demand destruction. Despite this, Brent is still above 100 dollars. This indicates that the supply shock so far is greater than the demand shortfall. For a Norwegian producer whose own production does not go through Hormuz, this is a very favorable situation. 2. Equinor's real "sweet spot" likely lies between normalization and energy crisis I would therefore divide the scenarios differently: Rapid normalization: Brent 75–85 and significantly lower TTF. Good/neutral for Equinor. Controlled energy shortage: Brent 90–110 and continued expensive European gas. Likely the best scenario for Equinor. Prolonged energy crisis: Brent 110–140+ and very expensive gas. Extremely strong cash flows initially, but successively greater recession, demand destruction, and interest rate risk. Global recession: Brent 60–75 and falling TTF. Clearly the worst scenario. Full diplomatic normalization is therefore not needed for Equinor to have a soft landing. On the contrary, an incomplete normalization that keeps energy prices structurally elevated without breaking the global economy can be better for shareholders. 3. The analysis is too oil-centric Equinor is also perhaps Europe's most important gas producer. This makes TTF, European gas storage, LNG flows, and winter weather central. Equinor's capital plan is based on European gas at 7–11 USD/MMBtu. The company already realized 12,9 USD/MMBtu in Q1 and 15,8 in Q2. Therefore, even Brent at 80 dollars can be very profitable if European gas remains expensive. Conversely, Brent 100 is less impressive if the gas market simultaneously normalizes sharply. 4. The Q1 comparison also needs to be nuanced That Equinor had 9,77 billion USD in adjusted operating profit when the realized oil price was 78,6 dollars shows the company's earning capacity, but 9,77 billion is operating profit before tax, not profit for shareholders. After tax, the corresponding result was approximately 2,86 billion USD. Furthermore, European gas was already expensive during Q1. It was therefore not a pure scenario with "80-dollar oil and normalized energy prices". Conclusion The basic premise is good: the path to 80 dollars matters. But the conclusion is too pessimistic about a prolonged but manageable energy shortfall. For Equinor, the best scenario is likely not full normalization but: Hormuz improves enough to avoid global recession, but oil and LNG markets remain tight enough for Brent to stabilize around 90–110 and European gas to remain expensive. A soft landing for the global economy and a soft landing for Equinor's shareholders are simply not the same thing.
·19 t sittenVery anxious about how the week develops. If the Yanbu pipeline is closed/threatened and the Al Bab strait is closed, then in practice the Suez Canal is closed. If Suez and Hormuz are closed, then it is much worse than the scenarios I envisioned at the start of the war.
·1 päivä sittenDoes anyone have access to the full article and can share? https://www.finansavisen.no/finans/2026/09/12/8355719/disse-analytikerne-har-ifolge-robert-naess-mest-rett
– If you had bought shares every week for the past ten years with a price target lower than the current share price, you would collectively have lost money. My calculations show that an initial capital of 100,000 kroner would have shrunk to 40,000 kroner after ten years. This indicates that the companies Norwegian analysts designate as winners often perform weaker than the market otherwise, Robert Næss tells Kapital. – In Norway, you should listen to analysts when they are negative on a stock, whether the price target is low or the recommendation is cool. This suggests that analysts are skilled at identifying weak companies. However, they are largely unable to uncover the winners, as the stocks they predict will top the winner lists on the Oslo Stock Exchange often perform weaker than the broad market, says Næss.- ·2 päivää sittenSignificant change: the risk has broadened from Hormuz to also Bab el-Mandeb/Red Sea. Reuters reports that the Houthis have now taken Perim Island and Dhubab, strategic positions at Bab el-Mandeb. This increases the risk that Saudi Arabia's and other producers' alternative export routes will also be affected, making a rapid normalization of oil and LNG flows less likely. At the same time, Brent has fallen from last night's close to 110 USD to approximately 104 USD/barrel, following reports that regional foreign ministers are trying to secure a temporary agreement with Iran regarding Hormuz traffic. However, there is still no verified agreement or actual normalization; Hormuz traffic was most recently at only 7 visible passages compared to approximately 125 per day before the war. The gas segment remains clearly positive for Equinor: TTF is around 79–81 €/MWh, and EU inventories are approximately 67.5 %, compared to about 80 % at the same time last year and a historical average of around 84.5 %. There is still no clear new shift in the winter forecast that justifies adjusting for a colder or milder winter. Valuation: I maintain approximately 445–500 NOK as a rough current fundamental range. The Houthis' advance strengthens the upper part of the range, while the first concrete diplomatic attempts around Hormuz increase the probability of a faster oil price normalization. I would therefore not raise the target range further now. An actual Hormuz agreement with clearly rising tanker/LNG traffic would, however, be a clear negative trigger for the Equinor case.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti
54 päivää sitten
‧28 min
3,6223 NOK/osake
Irtoamispäivä 13.11.
3,50%Tuotto/v
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
- ·1 t sittenGreen day 🤫The extra one-click button with a star, which made it possible to switch directly between all accounts and favorite accounts, has also been removed. Now three clicks are required to switch between these two views. What was previously a very efficient and intuitive solution has thus become unnecessarily cumbersome. At this point, the usability has gone from very good to directly bad. Overall, the new solution is significantly worse than the old one, both visually and in terms of usability. This is a clear setback, Nordnet.
- 12 t sittenThree paths for Equinor, and only one of them is a soft landing The question is not simply whether Brent ends up in the $80s in 2027. The more important question is how oil gets there. $80 oil is not, in itself, a crisis price. In Q1, Equinor realized $78.6 per barrel and still delivered $9.77 billion in adjusted operating income. The company’s own framework for share buybacks from 2027, NOK 2–4 billion annually, assumes oil at $60–80 per barrel and gas at $7–11 per MMBtu. Equinor has therefore planned for this price environment. But the path back to $80 matters. 1. Hormuz reopens and the market normalizes Oil falls back toward $80 as production volumes gradually return and European industrial activity recovers. This is the soft landing. Equinor retains strong production volumes while European gas demand can recover. Refining margins normalize, but without a major collapse in demand. 2. Demand collapses Oil falls toward $80 because the buyers disappear. That would be a much less favorable scenario for Equinor. Lower oil and gas prices would arrive at the same time as weaker gas demand and European industrial activity. Refining margins would normalize from exceptionally high levels, while the trading business could lose some of the volatility it benefits from. There is also the interest-rate channel. Warsh’s signals at Jackson Hole contributed to a shift in market expectations for US monetary policy. For a cyclical stock trading at elevated levels, a higher discount rate combined with weaker demand is a challenging combination. 3. Hormuz remains constrained Oil could remain well above $80, but this is not necessarily an unambiguously positive outcome for Equinor. A prolonged energy crisis could destroy demand, pressure European industry and contribute to tighter monetary policy. High oil prices benefit producers, but a progressively weaker customer base pulls in the opposite direction. America cannot solve this alone. The IEA estimates that the Americas Quintet, the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina, accounts for around 1.4 million barrels per day of non-OPEC+ supply growth in 2026. That is significant, but small compared with the production volumes still offline in the Gulf region. I therefore struggle to see a scenario where America alone delivers a soft landing toward the $80s. The one scenario that is genuinely favorable for Equinor therefore depends not primarily on geology. It depends on diplomacy. Which of the three scenarios do you put the most weight on? Not investment advice. I do not currently own Equinor. Written with assistance of AI. Sources: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/06/3288464/0/no/Equinors-resultater-for-f%C3%B8rste-kvartal-2026.html https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/16/3312355/0/no/Equinors-kapitalmarkedsdag-2026.html https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-september-2026 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/31/markets-see-warsh-endorsing-a-rate-hike-in-september-not-everyone-is-convinced.htmlAI-battle! 🤖 The analysis has a good core idea: Brent at 80 dollars can mean very different things depending on why the price ends up there. But the conclusion that diplomacy and a rapid normalization of Hormuz is the only genuinely favorable scenario for Equinor is too strong. First, an important factual error: Equinor's planned buybacks from 2027 are 2–4 billion USD per year, not NOK. Furthermore, the framework is based on Brent 60–80 USD/barrel and European gas at 7–11 USD/MMBtu. That says something about how robust the company's base case is. 1. Persistently high energy prices do not necessarily have to be bad for Equinor A prolonged energy crisis harms the global economy and eventually destroys demand. But for Equinor, there are simultaneously several very strong positive effects: * Brent 100–110+ → much higher margins on oil production. * High TTF → very high profitability on Norwegian gas. * High refinery margins → positive for Equinor's refining. * High volatility → can benefit trading operations. Against this stand lower industrial demand, recession risk, and potentially higher interest rates. The question is therefore not whether an energy crisis is bad for the economy, but at what level and duration the negative second-order effects exceed Equinor's increased energy margins. IEA already anticipates significant demand destruction. Despite this, Brent is still above 100 dollars. This indicates that the supply shock so far is greater than the demand shortfall. For a Norwegian producer whose own production does not go through Hormuz, this is a very favorable situation. 2. Equinor's real "sweet spot" likely lies between normalization and energy crisis I would therefore divide the scenarios differently: Rapid normalization: Brent 75–85 and significantly lower TTF. Good/neutral for Equinor. Controlled energy shortage: Brent 90–110 and continued expensive European gas. Likely the best scenario for Equinor. Prolonged energy crisis: Brent 110–140+ and very expensive gas. Extremely strong cash flows initially, but successively greater recession, demand destruction, and interest rate risk. Global recession: Brent 60–75 and falling TTF. Clearly the worst scenario. Full diplomatic normalization is therefore not needed for Equinor to have a soft landing. On the contrary, an incomplete normalization that keeps energy prices structurally elevated without breaking the global economy can be better for shareholders. 3. The analysis is too oil-centric Equinor is also perhaps Europe's most important gas producer. This makes TTF, European gas storage, LNG flows, and winter weather central. Equinor's capital plan is based on European gas at 7–11 USD/MMBtu. The company already realized 12,9 USD/MMBtu in Q1 and 15,8 in Q2. Therefore, even Brent at 80 dollars can be very profitable if European gas remains expensive. Conversely, Brent 100 is less impressive if the gas market simultaneously normalizes sharply. 4. The Q1 comparison also needs to be nuanced That Equinor had 9,77 billion USD in adjusted operating profit when the realized oil price was 78,6 dollars shows the company's earning capacity, but 9,77 billion is operating profit before tax, not profit for shareholders. After tax, the corresponding result was approximately 2,86 billion USD. Furthermore, European gas was already expensive during Q1. It was therefore not a pure scenario with "80-dollar oil and normalized energy prices". Conclusion The basic premise is good: the path to 80 dollars matters. But the conclusion is too pessimistic about a prolonged but manageable energy shortfall. For Equinor, the best scenario is likely not full normalization but: Hormuz improves enough to avoid global recession, but oil and LNG markets remain tight enough for Brent to stabilize around 90–110 and European gas to remain expensive. A soft landing for the global economy and a soft landing for Equinor's shareholders are simply not the same thing.
- ·19 t sittenVery anxious about how the week develops. If the Yanbu pipeline is closed/threatened and the Al Bab strait is closed, then in practice the Suez Canal is closed. If Suez and Hormuz are closed, then it is much worse than the scenarios I envisioned at the start of the war.
- ·1 päivä sittenDoes anyone have access to the full article and can share? https://www.finansavisen.no/finans/2026/09/12/8355719/disse-analytikerne-har-ifolge-robert-naess-mest-rett– If you had bought shares every week for the past ten years with a price target lower than the current share price, you would collectively have lost money. My calculations show that an initial capital of 100,000 kroner would have shrunk to 40,000 kroner after ten years. This indicates that the companies Norwegian analysts designate as winners often perform weaker than the market otherwise, Robert Næss tells Kapital. – In Norway, you should listen to analysts when they are negative on a stock, whether the price target is low or the recommendation is cool. This suggests that analysts are skilled at identifying weak companies. However, they are largely unable to uncover the winners, as the stocks they predict will top the winner lists on the Oslo Stock Exchange often perform weaker than the broad market, says Næss.
- ·2 päivää sittenSignificant change: the risk has broadened from Hormuz to also Bab el-Mandeb/Red Sea. Reuters reports that the Houthis have now taken Perim Island and Dhubab, strategic positions at Bab el-Mandeb. This increases the risk that Saudi Arabia's and other producers' alternative export routes will also be affected, making a rapid normalization of oil and LNG flows less likely. At the same time, Brent has fallen from last night's close to 110 USD to approximately 104 USD/barrel, following reports that regional foreign ministers are trying to secure a temporary agreement with Iran regarding Hormuz traffic. However, there is still no verified agreement or actual normalization; Hormuz traffic was most recently at only 7 visible passages compared to approximately 125 per day before the war. The gas segment remains clearly positive for Equinor: TTF is around 79–81 €/MWh, and EU inventories are approximately 67.5 %, compared to about 80 % at the same time last year and a historical average of around 84.5 %. There is still no clear new shift in the winter forecast that justifies adjusting for a colder or milder winter. Valuation: I maintain approximately 445–500 NOK as a rough current fundamental range. The Houthis' advance strengthens the upper part of the range, while the first concrete diplomatic attempts around Hormuz increase the probability of a faster oil price normalization. I would therefore not raise the target range further now. An actual Hormuz agreement with clearly rising tanker/LNG traffic would, however, be a clear negative trigger for the Equinor case.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Määrä
Osto
-
Myynti
Määrä
-
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | - | - | ||
| 17 | - | - | ||
| 207 | - | - | ||
| 280 | - | - | ||
| 72 | - | - |
Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Rahastot ja ETF:t, joilla on osaketta
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q3 -tulosraportti 28.10. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 22.7. | ||
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 6.5. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 4.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 29.10.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 23.7.2025 |
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti
54 päivää sitten
‧28 min
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q3 -tulosraportti 28.10. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 22.7. | ||
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 6.5. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 4.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 29.10.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 23.7.2025 |
3,6223 NOK/osake
Irtoamispäivä 13.11.
3,50%Tuotto/v
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
- ·1 t sittenGreen day 🤫The extra one-click button with a star, which made it possible to switch directly between all accounts and favorite accounts, has also been removed. Now three clicks are required to switch between these two views. What was previously a very efficient and intuitive solution has thus become unnecessarily cumbersome. At this point, the usability has gone from very good to directly bad. Overall, the new solution is significantly worse than the old one, both visually and in terms of usability. This is a clear setback, Nordnet.
- 12 t sittenThree paths for Equinor, and only one of them is a soft landing The question is not simply whether Brent ends up in the $80s in 2027. The more important question is how oil gets there. $80 oil is not, in itself, a crisis price. In Q1, Equinor realized $78.6 per barrel and still delivered $9.77 billion in adjusted operating income. The company’s own framework for share buybacks from 2027, NOK 2–4 billion annually, assumes oil at $60–80 per barrel and gas at $7–11 per MMBtu. Equinor has therefore planned for this price environment. But the path back to $80 matters. 1. Hormuz reopens and the market normalizes Oil falls back toward $80 as production volumes gradually return and European industrial activity recovers. This is the soft landing. Equinor retains strong production volumes while European gas demand can recover. Refining margins normalize, but without a major collapse in demand. 2. Demand collapses Oil falls toward $80 because the buyers disappear. That would be a much less favorable scenario for Equinor. Lower oil and gas prices would arrive at the same time as weaker gas demand and European industrial activity. Refining margins would normalize from exceptionally high levels, while the trading business could lose some of the volatility it benefits from. There is also the interest-rate channel. Warsh’s signals at Jackson Hole contributed to a shift in market expectations for US monetary policy. For a cyclical stock trading at elevated levels, a higher discount rate combined with weaker demand is a challenging combination. 3. Hormuz remains constrained Oil could remain well above $80, but this is not necessarily an unambiguously positive outcome for Equinor. A prolonged energy crisis could destroy demand, pressure European industry and contribute to tighter monetary policy. High oil prices benefit producers, but a progressively weaker customer base pulls in the opposite direction. America cannot solve this alone. The IEA estimates that the Americas Quintet, the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina, accounts for around 1.4 million barrels per day of non-OPEC+ supply growth in 2026. That is significant, but small compared with the production volumes still offline in the Gulf region. I therefore struggle to see a scenario where America alone delivers a soft landing toward the $80s. The one scenario that is genuinely favorable for Equinor therefore depends not primarily on geology. It depends on diplomacy. Which of the three scenarios do you put the most weight on? Not investment advice. I do not currently own Equinor. Written with assistance of AI. Sources: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/06/3288464/0/no/Equinors-resultater-for-f%C3%B8rste-kvartal-2026.html https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/16/3312355/0/no/Equinors-kapitalmarkedsdag-2026.html https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-september-2026 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/31/markets-see-warsh-endorsing-a-rate-hike-in-september-not-everyone-is-convinced.htmlAI-battle! 🤖 The analysis has a good core idea: Brent at 80 dollars can mean very different things depending on why the price ends up there. But the conclusion that diplomacy and a rapid normalization of Hormuz is the only genuinely favorable scenario for Equinor is too strong. First, an important factual error: Equinor's planned buybacks from 2027 are 2–4 billion USD per year, not NOK. Furthermore, the framework is based on Brent 60–80 USD/barrel and European gas at 7–11 USD/MMBtu. That says something about how robust the company's base case is. 1. Persistently high energy prices do not necessarily have to be bad for Equinor A prolonged energy crisis harms the global economy and eventually destroys demand. But for Equinor, there are simultaneously several very strong positive effects: * Brent 100–110+ → much higher margins on oil production. * High TTF → very high profitability on Norwegian gas. * High refinery margins → positive for Equinor's refining. * High volatility → can benefit trading operations. Against this stand lower industrial demand, recession risk, and potentially higher interest rates. The question is therefore not whether an energy crisis is bad for the economy, but at what level and duration the negative second-order effects exceed Equinor's increased energy margins. IEA already anticipates significant demand destruction. Despite this, Brent is still above 100 dollars. This indicates that the supply shock so far is greater than the demand shortfall. For a Norwegian producer whose own production does not go through Hormuz, this is a very favorable situation. 2. Equinor's real "sweet spot" likely lies between normalization and energy crisis I would therefore divide the scenarios differently: Rapid normalization: Brent 75–85 and significantly lower TTF. Good/neutral for Equinor. Controlled energy shortage: Brent 90–110 and continued expensive European gas. Likely the best scenario for Equinor. Prolonged energy crisis: Brent 110–140+ and very expensive gas. Extremely strong cash flows initially, but successively greater recession, demand destruction, and interest rate risk. Global recession: Brent 60–75 and falling TTF. Clearly the worst scenario. Full diplomatic normalization is therefore not needed for Equinor to have a soft landing. On the contrary, an incomplete normalization that keeps energy prices structurally elevated without breaking the global economy can be better for shareholders. 3. The analysis is too oil-centric Equinor is also perhaps Europe's most important gas producer. This makes TTF, European gas storage, LNG flows, and winter weather central. Equinor's capital plan is based on European gas at 7–11 USD/MMBtu. The company already realized 12,9 USD/MMBtu in Q1 and 15,8 in Q2. Therefore, even Brent at 80 dollars can be very profitable if European gas remains expensive. Conversely, Brent 100 is less impressive if the gas market simultaneously normalizes sharply. 4. The Q1 comparison also needs to be nuanced That Equinor had 9,77 billion USD in adjusted operating profit when the realized oil price was 78,6 dollars shows the company's earning capacity, but 9,77 billion is operating profit before tax, not profit for shareholders. After tax, the corresponding result was approximately 2,86 billion USD. Furthermore, European gas was already expensive during Q1. It was therefore not a pure scenario with "80-dollar oil and normalized energy prices". Conclusion The basic premise is good: the path to 80 dollars matters. But the conclusion is too pessimistic about a prolonged but manageable energy shortfall. For Equinor, the best scenario is likely not full normalization but: Hormuz improves enough to avoid global recession, but oil and LNG markets remain tight enough for Brent to stabilize around 90–110 and European gas to remain expensive. A soft landing for the global economy and a soft landing for Equinor's shareholders are simply not the same thing.
- ·19 t sittenVery anxious about how the week develops. If the Yanbu pipeline is closed/threatened and the Al Bab strait is closed, then in practice the Suez Canal is closed. If Suez and Hormuz are closed, then it is much worse than the scenarios I envisioned at the start of the war.
- ·1 päivä sittenDoes anyone have access to the full article and can share? https://www.finansavisen.no/finans/2026/09/12/8355719/disse-analytikerne-har-ifolge-robert-naess-mest-rett– If you had bought shares every week for the past ten years with a price target lower than the current share price, you would collectively have lost money. My calculations show that an initial capital of 100,000 kroner would have shrunk to 40,000 kroner after ten years. This indicates that the companies Norwegian analysts designate as winners often perform weaker than the market otherwise, Robert Næss tells Kapital. – In Norway, you should listen to analysts when they are negative on a stock, whether the price target is low or the recommendation is cool. This suggests that analysts are skilled at identifying weak companies. However, they are largely unable to uncover the winners, as the stocks they predict will top the winner lists on the Oslo Stock Exchange often perform weaker than the broad market, says Næss.
- ·2 päivää sittenSignificant change: the risk has broadened from Hormuz to also Bab el-Mandeb/Red Sea. Reuters reports that the Houthis have now taken Perim Island and Dhubab, strategic positions at Bab el-Mandeb. This increases the risk that Saudi Arabia's and other producers' alternative export routes will also be affected, making a rapid normalization of oil and LNG flows less likely. At the same time, Brent has fallen from last night's close to 110 USD to approximately 104 USD/barrel, following reports that regional foreign ministers are trying to secure a temporary agreement with Iran regarding Hormuz traffic. However, there is still no verified agreement or actual normalization; Hormuz traffic was most recently at only 7 visible passages compared to approximately 125 per day before the war. The gas segment remains clearly positive for Equinor: TTF is around 79–81 €/MWh, and EU inventories are approximately 67.5 %, compared to about 80 % at the same time last year and a historical average of around 84.5 %. There is still no clear new shift in the winter forecast that justifies adjusting for a colder or milder winter. Valuation: I maintain approximately 445–500 NOK as a rough current fundamental range. The Houthis' advance strengthens the upper part of the range, while the first concrete diplomatic attempts around Hormuz increase the probability of a faster oil price normalization. I would therefore not raise the target range further now. An actual Hormuz agreement with clearly rising tanker/LNG traffic would, however, be a clear negative trigger for the Equinor case.
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Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
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| 6 | - | - | ||
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| 207 | - | - | ||
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Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Rahastot ja ETF:t, joilla on osaketta
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