2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
31 päivää sitten
‧1 t 33 min
0,39 USD/osake
Irtoamispäivä 13.5.
4,83%Tuotto/v
Tarjoustasot
Oslo Børs
Määrä
Osto
-
Myynti
Määrä
-
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 240 | - | - | ||
| 10 | - | - | ||
| 100 | - | - | ||
| 2 300 | - | - | ||
| 822 | - | - |
Ylin
318,6VWAP
Alin
306,2VaihtoMäärä
2 928 9 399 506
VWAP
Ylin
318,6Alin
306,2VaihtoMäärä
2 928 9 399 506
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 6.5. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 4.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 29.10.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 23.7.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 30.4.2025 | ||
2024 Q4 -tulosraportti 5.2.2025 |
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·18 min sitten · Muokattu🛢️ When is it smart to sell energy funds? My exit criteria for BGF World Energy When should one actually sell energy funds? Many investors do it too late in the oil cycle. Here are my own exit criteria. Background I own BGF World Energy Fund from BlackRock as part of a geopolitical investment thesis: a more fragmented world order, increased focus on European energy security, and several years of underinvestment in fossil production can provide a structural tailwind for the energy sector. 🔗 Fund facts https://www.blackrock.com/uk/individual/products/229319/blackrock-world-energy-a2-eur-fund At the same time, all commodity cycles turn sooner or later. Brent over 100 dollar is therefore not necessarily a signal to hold further. It can also be an early warning signal that risk is starting to increase. ⸻ Why very high oil prices can become a problem BGF World Energy is heavily exposed to the major integrated oil companies such as ExxonMobil, Shell, TotalEnergies, and Chevron. These companies are very profitable even with Brent around 50 dollar. When the oil price passes around 100 dollar, however, several mechanisms begin to work against the market: 1. Demand destruction Higher energy prices cause industry and consumers to reduce consumption. 2. Increased supply from producers High prices can provide incentives for increased production from producers and from OPEC countries. 3. Macroeconomic tightening High energy inflation can contribute to interest rate hikes and weaker economic growth. Oil analyst Daan Struyven at Goldman Sachs has pointed out that demand destruction occurs at all price levels, but that it often accelerates when the oil price passes around 100 dollar per fat. 🔗 https://finance.yahoo.com/video/oil-prices-could-reach-100-164500067.html International Energy Agency described a similar pattern in 2023 when oil approached 100 dollar: fear of supply shock was eventually replaced by weaker macro data and signs of falling demand. 🔗 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-12/oil-price-pullback-reflects-demand-destruction-iea-says Historically, energy companies often peak before the oil price itself does, because the stock market tries to price the future. ⸻ My preliminary exit signals This is not a definitive answer, but a simple framework I myself consider using: • Brent 85–95 dollar The structural thesis still seems intact. I initially consider holding. • Brent breaks 100 dollar and stays there I may consider starting a gradual reduction, for example around 25–30 percent of the position. • Brent 110+ with very euphoric market sentiment If analysts and media start competing for ever higher oil price estimates, I will probably consider being significantly reduced in the position. ⸻ Fund-specific assessment BGF World Energy has an annual management fee of around 1,75 prosent. For an active fund with relatively high costs, the timing of exit can be more significant than for a cheap index-ETF. ⸻ The main rule I am not trying to sell because the price is high. I rather consider selling when a high price can mean that the downside risk begins to outweigh the upside, and when the most important drivers behind the investment case may be in the process of being priced in. The peak is always identified in hindsight. A little too early can in some cases be better than sitting through a large drop. ⸻ What is your strategy for energy funds in this cycle? ⸻ These are my own reflections and not investment advice. Always make your own assessments before investments.- ·33 min sitten · MuokattuWhen the oil price becomes too high – and energy stocks fall anyway Most people think that war in the Middle East = high oil price = buy Equinor and Chevron. That is the simple story. But there is another story, and it is uncomfortable for those of us who hold energy stocks. The oil price has become its own enemy. We are now at a point where Brent is approaching 90 dollars, Hormuz is partially closed, and Qatar has declared force majeure on LNG. The market cheers for energy stocks. But right here, in this period of euphoria, it is worth asking: what actually happens after this? History is clear. High enough energy prices kill growth. Factories slow down. Freight becomes more expensive. Consumers cut consumption. Central banks are stuck between inflation and recession and cannot cut interest rates to stimulate. That is the stagflation trap – and that is exactly where we are headed if the war persists. What happens then with energy stocks? They fall. Not because the companies are doing anything wrong, but because the market starts to price in future demand weakness instead of today's high price. We saw this in 2008: the oil price peaked at 147 dollars in July – and Equinor (then Statoil) and Chevron crashed down 50–60% towards December, even though the oil companies technically earned well in the quarter. The market always looks six months ahead. Equinor vs. Chevron in this scenario: Both fall – but not equally. Chevron has a structural advantage: Permian Basin production is completely isolated from the Middle East chaos, and its integrated structure with refining and LNG somewhat dampens volatility. Equinor is more purely upstream and particularly exposed to European gas prices – good now, but vulnerable when European industry slows down hard. Chevron is nevertheless not immune. The company already stopped production at the Leviathan gas field in Israel after direct acts of war – an early warning that even “safe” geography has blind spots. And after a rise of over 23% year-to-date, much good news is already priced in. The real question is not if, but when. Recession risk is no longer a horror scenario – it is a probability scenario. Chief Economist Harald Magnus Andreassen at Sparebank1 Markets said it directly last week: if prices become high enough, we will probably get a global recession. The market is now pricing in far fewer rate cuts from the Fed than a week ago. The ECB's chief economist warns of a sharp inflation jump. Stagflation is no longer a word from the textbook. For those heavily invested in energy stocks: the gain from recent weeks can quickly become temporary. The smart positioning is perhaps not to ride the rally as long as possible, but to think about what the next chapter is when the world realizes it cannot afford oil at 100 dollars. Not financial advice. Own assessments based on available information. Feel free to discuss in the comment section. Sources: ∙ NRK – Helgemorgen om krigen i Midtøsten og resesjonsrisiko (Harald Magnus Andreassen, Sparebank1 Markets): https://www.nrk.no/nordland/helgemorgen-gir-deg-svar-pa-alt-du-lurer-pa-om-krigen-mellom-iran_-usa-og-israel-1.17795747 ∙ E24 – Equinor-aksjen stiger, gasspriser og markedsreaksjoner: https://e24.no/boers-og-finans/i/Pd4qK5/venter-oppgang-oljeaksjer-skal-opp ∙ E24 – Energiminister Aasland og norske olje-/gassinntekter: https://e24.no/energi-og-klima/i/QJ731A/uro-rundt-olje-og-gassprisene-noe-vi-overhodet-ikke-oensker ∙ Investornytt – Hormuz-stengning og geoøkonomisk sjokk: https://www.investornytt.no/kommentar/iran-stenger-hormuz-slik-rammer-det-markedene/522490 ∙ Investornytt – Krigssjokk og stagflasjonsfrykt i globale markeder: https://www.investornytt.no/nyheter/krigssjokk-sender-globale-markeder-rett-ned/522725 ∙ Financial Content – Chevron og Permian-fordelen (“Permian Fortress”): https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2026-3-6-the-permian-fortress-chevron-surges-23-as-us-onshore-assets-shield-investors-from-middle-east-conflict ∙ Defense World – Chevron Leviathan-stopp og JPMorgan/Citigroup kursmål: https://www.defenseworld.net/2026/03/04/chevron-nysecvx-stock-price-expected-to-rise-citigroup-analyst-says.html ∙ Tickeron – Chevron og resesjonsrisiko ved Iran-konflikt: https://tickeron.com/blogs/chevron-and-the-iran-conflict-can-cvx-climb-higher-on-rising-oil-11791/ ∙ JPMorgan anbefaler europeiske oljeaksjer (ikke Equinor), via Finansavisen: https://www.finansavisen.no/energi/2026/03/02/8332807/jpmorgan-kjop-europeisk-olje-men-ikke-equinor
- ·11 t sitten🛢️ Strait of Hormuz: Iran's “opening” is political theater — not a real solution Iran announced on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is not closed after all. Many interpret this as a de-escalation. It is not. Background: The Revolutionary Guard declared on Monday, March 2, that the strait was closed and that all ships attempting to pass would be attacked. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is practically paralyzed, and at least eight commercial ships have been attacked in the waters around the strait since then.  The attacks — no one is safe: Already on March 1, UKMTO reported up to five ships being hit: the tanker Skylight was attacked 5 nautical miles from the Musandam Peninsula in Oman, four crew members were injured and 20 evacuated by the Omani navy. The crude oil tanker MKD Vyom was hit 50 nautical miles north of Muscat — one crew member died in the engine room. The product tanker Hercules Star was struck off Mina Saqr.  Two further ships were attacked the same day — one was hit by a projectile 17 nautical miles northwest of Mina Saqr in the UAE, another caught fire after being hit above the waterline 50 nautical miles north of Muscat.  The crucial point: Skylight is a strange target for Iran to choose — the ship has previously been sanctioned for aiding dark fleet tankers. This suggests that Iran does not operate with any discriminatory list of who is “safe”.  Friday's “reversal”: An Iranian military spokesperson now says that the strait is open — but that ships with ties to the USA or Israel are denied passage. (Source: Reuters via Dagbladet, 06.03.2026) Why this is meaningless in practice: Argus Media confirms that UKMTO has established that Iranian broadcasts about closure are not legally binding — the strait is international waters that cannot be unilaterally blocked by a coastal state act.  Iran has nevertheless succeeded through sheer terrorization of the insurance market. As Jakob P. Larsen, Head of Maritime Security at BIMCO, told Fox News: «The Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and adjacent waters are currently the most dangerous place for commercial shipping.»  As former Lieutenant General Arne Bård Dalhaug told Dagbladet on Tuesday: «In practice, Iran only needs to threaten attacks to stop the ships. Insurance premiums will skyrocket.» Market implication: The IEA estimates that an average of 20 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily in 2025 — around 25 percent of the world's seaborne oil trade.  The oil price passed 90 dollars per barrel on Friday, the highest level since 2023. (Source: NTB/Reuters, 06.03.2026) The underlying risk premium does not disappear with a press release from Tehran. Sources: ∙ Dagbladet, 06.03.2026: https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/snur-etter-trussel-om-hormuzstredet/84334638 ∙ Dagbladet, 04.03.2026: https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/helt-naturlig-trekk-fra-iran/84313057 ∙ Maritime Executive, 01.03.2026: https://maritime-executive.com/article/iran-tries-to-intimidate-shipping-with-attacks-in-the-strait-of-hormuz ∙ Ship & Bunker / UKMTO, 01.03.2026: https://shipandbunker.com/news/world/302992-two-more-ships-attacked-in-strait-of-hormuz-ukmto ∙ Argus Media / UKMTO, 05.03.2026: https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2794517-mideast-gulf-ships-receive-hormuz-ban-message-ukmto ∙ Windward Maritime AI Intelligence Daily, 02.03.2026: https://windward.ai/blog/march-2-iran-war-maritime-intelligence-daily/ ∙ Seatrade Maritime, 04.03.2026: https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/containers/container-ship-hit-in-strait-of-hormuz-nearly-150-vessels-trapped·10 t sitten🛢️ Hormuz: Is the US's insurance plan really big enough? The USA is now trying to stabilize shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz with a state insurance framework of 20 billion dollars through US Development Finance Corporation (DFC), combined with possible naval escort for tankers. But the figures raise an interesting question. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase have estimated that full insurance coverage for the ships in the area could require up to 352 billion dollars when including hull damage, oil pollution, salvage, and third-party liability. Compared to this, the DFC scheme only covers a small part of the potential risk. At the same time, there is a practical challenge: The Strait of Hormuz is normally passed by more than 20 large tankers daily. Escorting a significant portion of this traffic through a conflict zone would be a demanding task even for the US Navy. The US administration has therefore signaled that the US Navy may escort tankers through Hormuz if necessary, as part of the plan to keep energy transport running. An analysis mentioned by Morningstar also points to a possible side effect: state guarantees could lead private marine insurance companies to withdraw further from the market. The market therefore still prices significant geopolitical risk. The oil price has already moved above 90 dollars a barrel, and VLCC freight rates have risen sharply in the last week. The question is therefore: Is this enough to get shipping traffic back to normal, or will the risk premium in the energy and shipping market remain high? ⸻ Sources https://www.finansavisen.no/shipping/2026/03/06/8334591/usa-foreslar-forsikringsplan-lover-20-mrdhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-considering-oil-tanker-insurance-support-ease-middle-east-crude-shipments-2026-03-03/https://news.usni.org/2026/03/03/trump-u-s-navy-may-escort-tankers-through-strait-of-hormuz-more-european-warships-en-route-to-medhttps://maritime-executive.com/article/trump-u-s-will-provide-risk-insurance-for-all-shipping-in-the-gulfhttps://www.reinsurancene.ws/us-insurance-proposal-may-not-be-enough-to-restart-shipping-through-the-strait-of-hormuz/https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2794517-mideast-gulf-ships-receive-hormuz-ban-message-ukmto
·11 t sitten
·2 t sitten · MuokattuIsn't that the same man who predicted oil at 40 here at the end of last year? I think we should be careful about predicting anything. Trump is finished as a politician in the USA if he doesn't end this relatively quickly. It's an election year this year, and if the Democrats win, the man is a sitting duck without political power. So why predict anything at all, one tweet and oil is down 20 dollars in minutes. But… personally I think we will see oil for a long time stay in the 75-85 range and not fall much more than that, that's where it should have been purely fundamentally. No one benefits from oil over 100, absolutely no one. Global recession within 3 months if that happens. Market down 50%. Do we think Trump can stand in it? I'm sitting and looking at the bond market, and I can't see any panic there, these traders tend to be quite good at pricing in risks regarding inflation and there's no panic there that hints at oil over 100… so of course they can be wrong, but for now I choose to see what smart money actually prices in. Not what a hefty short covering in oil does and what this person and other fortune tellers think. Friday: oil rises 15%, while long bond yields fall. Someone is wrong here. The two don't go together.- ·11 t sitten · MuokattuRas Laffan: Two drones. One-fifth of the world's LNG. And now the US is easing Russia sanctions. On March 2, Iran shot two drones at Qatar. No one died. But the aftermath is shaking the entire global energy market. What happened: QatarEnergy's facility in Ras Laffan – the world's largest LNG export terminal – was hit and immediately shut down all production. The company declared force majeure on all delivery obligations. The result: European gas prices rose by up to 54% in one day – the largest single-day increase since the energy crisis in 2022. Why this is historic: Ras Laffan alone covers about one-fifth of the world's total LNG supply. Goldman Sachs estimates that a one-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz could more than double European gas prices from today's level. We are now on day 7 of the conflict, and Trump has publicly rejected any negotiation with Iran without unconditional surrender. Oil price: On Friday evening, the oil price passed $94/barrel – over 10% up in one day, the highest since September 2023. SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye describes the situation as "crisis levels" without historical precedent: "This is truly immense. We have never experienced this before, so we have no historical data to refer to." He openly states that $100+ is "very likely soon." The strategic logic: Iran chose Qatar as a target even though Qatar is not a war participant. Two drones crippled one-fifth of the world's LNG supply without a single life lost. Analysts at King’s College London point out that Iran "knows exactly what it is doing" – the pressure is directed at the Gulf states to force a ceasefire. Today's most underreported news – the Russia waiver: On Thursday, the US temporarily eased Russia sanctions to allow Russian oil stranded at sea to be delivered and sold to India – valid until April 3, 2026. Analysts estimate this applies to around 125 million barrels of crude oil. Russian oil is now well above the $59/barrel that was assumed in the Russian state budget for 2026. The irony is complete: Trump forced India to cut Russian oil by 25% punitive tariffs a few weeks ago. Now he is lifting his own sanctions because the alternative is an energy collapse in the world's third-largest economy. India has estimated reserves for only 25 days. A longer conflict with lasting damage to infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Kuwait could give Russia a lasting gain – just when Russian state revenues from oil and gas had fallen to a four-year low in January. In short: The war is redistributing global energy trade in real-time. The Strait of Hormuz is paralyzed. Ras Laffan is down. Kuwait is cutting production. India is 25 days from crisis. And the US is lifting Russia sanctions to keep things going. The defense sector and energy security are no longer a long-term thesis – it is now. Positioned accordingly. Sources: ∙ DN / SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye (March 6, 2026): https://www.dn.no/olje/advarer-om-krisenivaer-i-oljeprisen-tror-vi-har-undervurdert-vapenkraften-til-iran/2-1-1955850 ∙ Bloomberg – Qatar LNG shutdown (March 2, 2026): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-02/qatar-stops-lng-production-at-world-s-top-plant-after-attack ∙ Al Jazeera – QatarEnergy halts LNG (March 2, 2026): https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/2/qatarenergy-worlds-largest-lng-firm-halts-production-after-iran-attacks ∙ Bloomberg / AP – Russia waiver (March 6, 2026): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-06/us-issues-license-to-allow-some-russian-oil-sales-to-india-mme5qix4 ∙ The Moscow Times – US Treasury waiver (March 6, 2026): https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/03/06/us-grants-temporary-waiver-to-allow-india-to-buy-russian-oil-as-iran-war-jolts-energy-markets-a92136 ∙ Euronews – 30-day waiver (March 6, 2026): https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/03/06/us-offers-india-30-day-waiver-to-buy-stranded-russian-oil-amid-iran-war-shocks ∙ gCaptain – Goldman Sachs price estimate (March 2, 2026): https://gcaptain.com/qatar-lng-shutdown-iran-drone-attack-ras-laffan/
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2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
31 päivää sitten
‧1 t 33 min
0,39 USD/osake
Irtoamispäivä 13.5.
4,83%Tuotto/v
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
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- ·18 min sitten · Muokattu🛢️ When is it smart to sell energy funds? My exit criteria for BGF World Energy When should one actually sell energy funds? Many investors do it too late in the oil cycle. Here are my own exit criteria. Background I own BGF World Energy Fund from BlackRock as part of a geopolitical investment thesis: a more fragmented world order, increased focus on European energy security, and several years of underinvestment in fossil production can provide a structural tailwind for the energy sector. 🔗 Fund facts https://www.blackrock.com/uk/individual/products/229319/blackrock-world-energy-a2-eur-fund At the same time, all commodity cycles turn sooner or later. Brent over 100 dollar is therefore not necessarily a signal to hold further. It can also be an early warning signal that risk is starting to increase. ⸻ Why very high oil prices can become a problem BGF World Energy is heavily exposed to the major integrated oil companies such as ExxonMobil, Shell, TotalEnergies, and Chevron. These companies are very profitable even with Brent around 50 dollar. When the oil price passes around 100 dollar, however, several mechanisms begin to work against the market: 1. Demand destruction Higher energy prices cause industry and consumers to reduce consumption. 2. Increased supply from producers High prices can provide incentives for increased production from producers and from OPEC countries. 3. Macroeconomic tightening High energy inflation can contribute to interest rate hikes and weaker economic growth. Oil analyst Daan Struyven at Goldman Sachs has pointed out that demand destruction occurs at all price levels, but that it often accelerates when the oil price passes around 100 dollar per fat. 🔗 https://finance.yahoo.com/video/oil-prices-could-reach-100-164500067.html International Energy Agency described a similar pattern in 2023 when oil approached 100 dollar: fear of supply shock was eventually replaced by weaker macro data and signs of falling demand. 🔗 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-12/oil-price-pullback-reflects-demand-destruction-iea-says Historically, energy companies often peak before the oil price itself does, because the stock market tries to price the future. ⸻ My preliminary exit signals This is not a definitive answer, but a simple framework I myself consider using: • Brent 85–95 dollar The structural thesis still seems intact. I initially consider holding. • Brent breaks 100 dollar and stays there I may consider starting a gradual reduction, for example around 25–30 percent of the position. • Brent 110+ with very euphoric market sentiment If analysts and media start competing for ever higher oil price estimates, I will probably consider being significantly reduced in the position. ⸻ Fund-specific assessment BGF World Energy has an annual management fee of around 1,75 prosent. For an active fund with relatively high costs, the timing of exit can be more significant than for a cheap index-ETF. ⸻ The main rule I am not trying to sell because the price is high. I rather consider selling when a high price can mean that the downside risk begins to outweigh the upside, and when the most important drivers behind the investment case may be in the process of being priced in. The peak is always identified in hindsight. A little too early can in some cases be better than sitting through a large drop. ⸻ What is your strategy for energy funds in this cycle? ⸻ These are my own reflections and not investment advice. Always make your own assessments before investments.
- ·33 min sitten · MuokattuWhen the oil price becomes too high – and energy stocks fall anyway Most people think that war in the Middle East = high oil price = buy Equinor and Chevron. That is the simple story. But there is another story, and it is uncomfortable for those of us who hold energy stocks. The oil price has become its own enemy. We are now at a point where Brent is approaching 90 dollars, Hormuz is partially closed, and Qatar has declared force majeure on LNG. The market cheers for energy stocks. But right here, in this period of euphoria, it is worth asking: what actually happens after this? History is clear. High enough energy prices kill growth. Factories slow down. Freight becomes more expensive. Consumers cut consumption. Central banks are stuck between inflation and recession and cannot cut interest rates to stimulate. That is the stagflation trap – and that is exactly where we are headed if the war persists. What happens then with energy stocks? They fall. Not because the companies are doing anything wrong, but because the market starts to price in future demand weakness instead of today's high price. We saw this in 2008: the oil price peaked at 147 dollars in July – and Equinor (then Statoil) and Chevron crashed down 50–60% towards December, even though the oil companies technically earned well in the quarter. The market always looks six months ahead. Equinor vs. Chevron in this scenario: Both fall – but not equally. Chevron has a structural advantage: Permian Basin production is completely isolated from the Middle East chaos, and its integrated structure with refining and LNG somewhat dampens volatility. Equinor is more purely upstream and particularly exposed to European gas prices – good now, but vulnerable when European industry slows down hard. Chevron is nevertheless not immune. The company already stopped production at the Leviathan gas field in Israel after direct acts of war – an early warning that even “safe” geography has blind spots. And after a rise of over 23% year-to-date, much good news is already priced in. The real question is not if, but when. Recession risk is no longer a horror scenario – it is a probability scenario. Chief Economist Harald Magnus Andreassen at Sparebank1 Markets said it directly last week: if prices become high enough, we will probably get a global recession. The market is now pricing in far fewer rate cuts from the Fed than a week ago. The ECB's chief economist warns of a sharp inflation jump. Stagflation is no longer a word from the textbook. For those heavily invested in energy stocks: the gain from recent weeks can quickly become temporary. The smart positioning is perhaps not to ride the rally as long as possible, but to think about what the next chapter is when the world realizes it cannot afford oil at 100 dollars. Not financial advice. Own assessments based on available information. Feel free to discuss in the comment section. Sources: ∙ NRK – Helgemorgen om krigen i Midtøsten og resesjonsrisiko (Harald Magnus Andreassen, Sparebank1 Markets): https://www.nrk.no/nordland/helgemorgen-gir-deg-svar-pa-alt-du-lurer-pa-om-krigen-mellom-iran_-usa-og-israel-1.17795747 ∙ E24 – Equinor-aksjen stiger, gasspriser og markedsreaksjoner: https://e24.no/boers-og-finans/i/Pd4qK5/venter-oppgang-oljeaksjer-skal-opp ∙ E24 – Energiminister Aasland og norske olje-/gassinntekter: https://e24.no/energi-og-klima/i/QJ731A/uro-rundt-olje-og-gassprisene-noe-vi-overhodet-ikke-oensker ∙ Investornytt – Hormuz-stengning og geoøkonomisk sjokk: https://www.investornytt.no/kommentar/iran-stenger-hormuz-slik-rammer-det-markedene/522490 ∙ Investornytt – Krigssjokk og stagflasjonsfrykt i globale markeder: https://www.investornytt.no/nyheter/krigssjokk-sender-globale-markeder-rett-ned/522725 ∙ Financial Content – Chevron og Permian-fordelen (“Permian Fortress”): https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2026-3-6-the-permian-fortress-chevron-surges-23-as-us-onshore-assets-shield-investors-from-middle-east-conflict ∙ Defense World – Chevron Leviathan-stopp og JPMorgan/Citigroup kursmål: https://www.defenseworld.net/2026/03/04/chevron-nysecvx-stock-price-expected-to-rise-citigroup-analyst-says.html ∙ Tickeron – Chevron og resesjonsrisiko ved Iran-konflikt: https://tickeron.com/blogs/chevron-and-the-iran-conflict-can-cvx-climb-higher-on-rising-oil-11791/ ∙ JPMorgan anbefaler europeiske oljeaksjer (ikke Equinor), via Finansavisen: https://www.finansavisen.no/energi/2026/03/02/8332807/jpmorgan-kjop-europeisk-olje-men-ikke-equinor
- ·11 t sitten🛢️ Strait of Hormuz: Iran's “opening” is political theater — not a real solution Iran announced on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is not closed after all. Many interpret this as a de-escalation. It is not. Background: The Revolutionary Guard declared on Monday, March 2, that the strait was closed and that all ships attempting to pass would be attacked. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is practically paralyzed, and at least eight commercial ships have been attacked in the waters around the strait since then.  The attacks — no one is safe: Already on March 1, UKMTO reported up to five ships being hit: the tanker Skylight was attacked 5 nautical miles from the Musandam Peninsula in Oman, four crew members were injured and 20 evacuated by the Omani navy. The crude oil tanker MKD Vyom was hit 50 nautical miles north of Muscat — one crew member died in the engine room. The product tanker Hercules Star was struck off Mina Saqr.  Two further ships were attacked the same day — one was hit by a projectile 17 nautical miles northwest of Mina Saqr in the UAE, another caught fire after being hit above the waterline 50 nautical miles north of Muscat.  The crucial point: Skylight is a strange target for Iran to choose — the ship has previously been sanctioned for aiding dark fleet tankers. This suggests that Iran does not operate with any discriminatory list of who is “safe”.  Friday's “reversal”: An Iranian military spokesperson now says that the strait is open — but that ships with ties to the USA or Israel are denied passage. (Source: Reuters via Dagbladet, 06.03.2026) Why this is meaningless in practice: Argus Media confirms that UKMTO has established that Iranian broadcasts about closure are not legally binding — the strait is international waters that cannot be unilaterally blocked by a coastal state act.  Iran has nevertheless succeeded through sheer terrorization of the insurance market. As Jakob P. Larsen, Head of Maritime Security at BIMCO, told Fox News: «The Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and adjacent waters are currently the most dangerous place for commercial shipping.»  As former Lieutenant General Arne Bård Dalhaug told Dagbladet on Tuesday: «In practice, Iran only needs to threaten attacks to stop the ships. Insurance premiums will skyrocket.» Market implication: The IEA estimates that an average of 20 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily in 2025 — around 25 percent of the world's seaborne oil trade.  The oil price passed 90 dollars per barrel on Friday, the highest level since 2023. (Source: NTB/Reuters, 06.03.2026) The underlying risk premium does not disappear with a press release from Tehran. Sources: ∙ Dagbladet, 06.03.2026: https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/snur-etter-trussel-om-hormuzstredet/84334638 ∙ Dagbladet, 04.03.2026: https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/helt-naturlig-trekk-fra-iran/84313057 ∙ Maritime Executive, 01.03.2026: https://maritime-executive.com/article/iran-tries-to-intimidate-shipping-with-attacks-in-the-strait-of-hormuz ∙ Ship & Bunker / UKMTO, 01.03.2026: https://shipandbunker.com/news/world/302992-two-more-ships-attacked-in-strait-of-hormuz-ukmto ∙ Argus Media / UKMTO, 05.03.2026: https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2794517-mideast-gulf-ships-receive-hormuz-ban-message-ukmto ∙ Windward Maritime AI Intelligence Daily, 02.03.2026: https://windward.ai/blog/march-2-iran-war-maritime-intelligence-daily/ ∙ Seatrade Maritime, 04.03.2026: https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/containers/container-ship-hit-in-strait-of-hormuz-nearly-150-vessels-trapped·10 t sitten🛢️ Hormuz: Is the US's insurance plan really big enough? The USA is now trying to stabilize shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz with a state insurance framework of 20 billion dollars through US Development Finance Corporation (DFC), combined with possible naval escort for tankers. But the figures raise an interesting question. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase have estimated that full insurance coverage for the ships in the area could require up to 352 billion dollars when including hull damage, oil pollution, salvage, and third-party liability. Compared to this, the DFC scheme only covers a small part of the potential risk. At the same time, there is a practical challenge: The Strait of Hormuz is normally passed by more than 20 large tankers daily. Escorting a significant portion of this traffic through a conflict zone would be a demanding task even for the US Navy. The US administration has therefore signaled that the US Navy may escort tankers through Hormuz if necessary, as part of the plan to keep energy transport running. An analysis mentioned by Morningstar also points to a possible side effect: state guarantees could lead private marine insurance companies to withdraw further from the market. The market therefore still prices significant geopolitical risk. The oil price has already moved above 90 dollars a barrel, and VLCC freight rates have risen sharply in the last week. The question is therefore: Is this enough to get shipping traffic back to normal, or will the risk premium in the energy and shipping market remain high? ⸻ Sources https://www.finansavisen.no/shipping/2026/03/06/8334591/usa-foreslar-forsikringsplan-lover-20-mrdhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-considering-oil-tanker-insurance-support-ease-middle-east-crude-shipments-2026-03-03/https://news.usni.org/2026/03/03/trump-u-s-navy-may-escort-tankers-through-strait-of-hormuz-more-european-warships-en-route-to-medhttps://maritime-executive.com/article/trump-u-s-will-provide-risk-insurance-for-all-shipping-in-the-gulfhttps://www.reinsurancene.ws/us-insurance-proposal-may-not-be-enough-to-restart-shipping-through-the-strait-of-hormuz/https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2794517-mideast-gulf-ships-receive-hormuz-ban-message-ukmto
- ·11 t sitten·2 t sitten · MuokattuIsn't that the same man who predicted oil at 40 here at the end of last year? I think we should be careful about predicting anything. Trump is finished as a politician in the USA if he doesn't end this relatively quickly. It's an election year this year, and if the Democrats win, the man is a sitting duck without political power. So why predict anything at all, one tweet and oil is down 20 dollars in minutes. But… personally I think we will see oil for a long time stay in the 75-85 range and not fall much more than that, that's where it should have been purely fundamentally. No one benefits from oil over 100, absolutely no one. Global recession within 3 months if that happens. Market down 50%. Do we think Trump can stand in it? I'm sitting and looking at the bond market, and I can't see any panic there, these traders tend to be quite good at pricing in risks regarding inflation and there's no panic there that hints at oil over 100… so of course they can be wrong, but for now I choose to see what smart money actually prices in. Not what a hefty short covering in oil does and what this person and other fortune tellers think. Friday: oil rises 15%, while long bond yields fall. Someone is wrong here. The two don't go together.
- ·11 t sitten · MuokattuRas Laffan: Two drones. One-fifth of the world's LNG. And now the US is easing Russia sanctions. On March 2, Iran shot two drones at Qatar. No one died. But the aftermath is shaking the entire global energy market. What happened: QatarEnergy's facility in Ras Laffan – the world's largest LNG export terminal – was hit and immediately shut down all production. The company declared force majeure on all delivery obligations. The result: European gas prices rose by up to 54% in one day – the largest single-day increase since the energy crisis in 2022. Why this is historic: Ras Laffan alone covers about one-fifth of the world's total LNG supply. Goldman Sachs estimates that a one-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz could more than double European gas prices from today's level. We are now on day 7 of the conflict, and Trump has publicly rejected any negotiation with Iran without unconditional surrender. Oil price: On Friday evening, the oil price passed $94/barrel – over 10% up in one day, the highest since September 2023. SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye describes the situation as "crisis levels" without historical precedent: "This is truly immense. We have never experienced this before, so we have no historical data to refer to." He openly states that $100+ is "very likely soon." The strategic logic: Iran chose Qatar as a target even though Qatar is not a war participant. Two drones crippled one-fifth of the world's LNG supply without a single life lost. Analysts at King’s College London point out that Iran "knows exactly what it is doing" – the pressure is directed at the Gulf states to force a ceasefire. Today's most underreported news – the Russia waiver: On Thursday, the US temporarily eased Russia sanctions to allow Russian oil stranded at sea to be delivered and sold to India – valid until April 3, 2026. Analysts estimate this applies to around 125 million barrels of crude oil. Russian oil is now well above the $59/barrel that was assumed in the Russian state budget for 2026. The irony is complete: Trump forced India to cut Russian oil by 25% punitive tariffs a few weeks ago. Now he is lifting his own sanctions because the alternative is an energy collapse in the world's third-largest economy. India has estimated reserves for only 25 days. A longer conflict with lasting damage to infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Kuwait could give Russia a lasting gain – just when Russian state revenues from oil and gas had fallen to a four-year low in January. In short: The war is redistributing global energy trade in real-time. The Strait of Hormuz is paralyzed. Ras Laffan is down. Kuwait is cutting production. India is 25 days from crisis. And the US is lifting Russia sanctions to keep things going. The defense sector and energy security are no longer a long-term thesis – it is now. Positioned accordingly. Sources: ∙ DN / SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye (March 6, 2026): https://www.dn.no/olje/advarer-om-krisenivaer-i-oljeprisen-tror-vi-har-undervurdert-vapenkraften-til-iran/2-1-1955850 ∙ Bloomberg – Qatar LNG shutdown (March 2, 2026): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-02/qatar-stops-lng-production-at-world-s-top-plant-after-attack ∙ Al Jazeera – QatarEnergy halts LNG (March 2, 2026): https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/2/qatarenergy-worlds-largest-lng-firm-halts-production-after-iran-attacks ∙ Bloomberg / AP – Russia waiver (March 6, 2026): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-06/us-issues-license-to-allow-some-russian-oil-sales-to-india-mme5qix4 ∙ The Moscow Times – US Treasury waiver (March 6, 2026): https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/03/06/us-grants-temporary-waiver-to-allow-india-to-buy-russian-oil-as-iran-war-jolts-energy-markets-a92136 ∙ Euronews – 30-day waiver (March 6, 2026): https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/03/06/us-offers-india-30-day-waiver-to-buy-stranded-russian-oil-amid-iran-war-shocks ∙ gCaptain – Goldman Sachs price estimate (March 2, 2026): https://gcaptain.com/qatar-lng-shutdown-iran-drone-attack-ras-laffan/
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- ·18 min sitten · Muokattu🛢️ When is it smart to sell energy funds? My exit criteria for BGF World Energy When should one actually sell energy funds? Many investors do it too late in the oil cycle. Here are my own exit criteria. Background I own BGF World Energy Fund from BlackRock as part of a geopolitical investment thesis: a more fragmented world order, increased focus on European energy security, and several years of underinvestment in fossil production can provide a structural tailwind for the energy sector. 🔗 Fund facts https://www.blackrock.com/uk/individual/products/229319/blackrock-world-energy-a2-eur-fund At the same time, all commodity cycles turn sooner or later. Brent over 100 dollar is therefore not necessarily a signal to hold further. It can also be an early warning signal that risk is starting to increase. ⸻ Why very high oil prices can become a problem BGF World Energy is heavily exposed to the major integrated oil companies such as ExxonMobil, Shell, TotalEnergies, and Chevron. These companies are very profitable even with Brent around 50 dollar. When the oil price passes around 100 dollar, however, several mechanisms begin to work against the market: 1. Demand destruction Higher energy prices cause industry and consumers to reduce consumption. 2. Increased supply from producers High prices can provide incentives for increased production from producers and from OPEC countries. 3. Macroeconomic tightening High energy inflation can contribute to interest rate hikes and weaker economic growth. Oil analyst Daan Struyven at Goldman Sachs has pointed out that demand destruction occurs at all price levels, but that it often accelerates when the oil price passes around 100 dollar per fat. 🔗 https://finance.yahoo.com/video/oil-prices-could-reach-100-164500067.html International Energy Agency described a similar pattern in 2023 when oil approached 100 dollar: fear of supply shock was eventually replaced by weaker macro data and signs of falling demand. 🔗 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-12/oil-price-pullback-reflects-demand-destruction-iea-says Historically, energy companies often peak before the oil price itself does, because the stock market tries to price the future. ⸻ My preliminary exit signals This is not a definitive answer, but a simple framework I myself consider using: • Brent 85–95 dollar The structural thesis still seems intact. I initially consider holding. • Brent breaks 100 dollar and stays there I may consider starting a gradual reduction, for example around 25–30 percent of the position. • Brent 110+ with very euphoric market sentiment If analysts and media start competing for ever higher oil price estimates, I will probably consider being significantly reduced in the position. ⸻ Fund-specific assessment BGF World Energy has an annual management fee of around 1,75 prosent. For an active fund with relatively high costs, the timing of exit can be more significant than for a cheap index-ETF. ⸻ The main rule I am not trying to sell because the price is high. I rather consider selling when a high price can mean that the downside risk begins to outweigh the upside, and when the most important drivers behind the investment case may be in the process of being priced in. The peak is always identified in hindsight. A little too early can in some cases be better than sitting through a large drop. ⸻ What is your strategy for energy funds in this cycle? ⸻ These are my own reflections and not investment advice. Always make your own assessments before investments.
- ·33 min sitten · MuokattuWhen the oil price becomes too high – and energy stocks fall anyway Most people think that war in the Middle East = high oil price = buy Equinor and Chevron. That is the simple story. But there is another story, and it is uncomfortable for those of us who hold energy stocks. The oil price has become its own enemy. We are now at a point where Brent is approaching 90 dollars, Hormuz is partially closed, and Qatar has declared force majeure on LNG. The market cheers for energy stocks. But right here, in this period of euphoria, it is worth asking: what actually happens after this? History is clear. High enough energy prices kill growth. Factories slow down. Freight becomes more expensive. Consumers cut consumption. Central banks are stuck between inflation and recession and cannot cut interest rates to stimulate. That is the stagflation trap – and that is exactly where we are headed if the war persists. What happens then with energy stocks? They fall. Not because the companies are doing anything wrong, but because the market starts to price in future demand weakness instead of today's high price. We saw this in 2008: the oil price peaked at 147 dollars in July – and Equinor (then Statoil) and Chevron crashed down 50–60% towards December, even though the oil companies technically earned well in the quarter. The market always looks six months ahead. Equinor vs. Chevron in this scenario: Both fall – but not equally. Chevron has a structural advantage: Permian Basin production is completely isolated from the Middle East chaos, and its integrated structure with refining and LNG somewhat dampens volatility. Equinor is more purely upstream and particularly exposed to European gas prices – good now, but vulnerable when European industry slows down hard. Chevron is nevertheless not immune. The company already stopped production at the Leviathan gas field in Israel after direct acts of war – an early warning that even “safe” geography has blind spots. And after a rise of over 23% year-to-date, much good news is already priced in. The real question is not if, but when. Recession risk is no longer a horror scenario – it is a probability scenario. Chief Economist Harald Magnus Andreassen at Sparebank1 Markets said it directly last week: if prices become high enough, we will probably get a global recession. The market is now pricing in far fewer rate cuts from the Fed than a week ago. The ECB's chief economist warns of a sharp inflation jump. Stagflation is no longer a word from the textbook. For those heavily invested in energy stocks: the gain from recent weeks can quickly become temporary. The smart positioning is perhaps not to ride the rally as long as possible, but to think about what the next chapter is when the world realizes it cannot afford oil at 100 dollars. Not financial advice. Own assessments based on available information. Feel free to discuss in the comment section. Sources: ∙ NRK – Helgemorgen om krigen i Midtøsten og resesjonsrisiko (Harald Magnus Andreassen, Sparebank1 Markets): https://www.nrk.no/nordland/helgemorgen-gir-deg-svar-pa-alt-du-lurer-pa-om-krigen-mellom-iran_-usa-og-israel-1.17795747 ∙ E24 – Equinor-aksjen stiger, gasspriser og markedsreaksjoner: https://e24.no/boers-og-finans/i/Pd4qK5/venter-oppgang-oljeaksjer-skal-opp ∙ E24 – Energiminister Aasland og norske olje-/gassinntekter: https://e24.no/energi-og-klima/i/QJ731A/uro-rundt-olje-og-gassprisene-noe-vi-overhodet-ikke-oensker ∙ Investornytt – Hormuz-stengning og geoøkonomisk sjokk: https://www.investornytt.no/kommentar/iran-stenger-hormuz-slik-rammer-det-markedene/522490 ∙ Investornytt – Krigssjokk og stagflasjonsfrykt i globale markeder: https://www.investornytt.no/nyheter/krigssjokk-sender-globale-markeder-rett-ned/522725 ∙ Financial Content – Chevron og Permian-fordelen (“Permian Fortress”): https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2026-3-6-the-permian-fortress-chevron-surges-23-as-us-onshore-assets-shield-investors-from-middle-east-conflict ∙ Defense World – Chevron Leviathan-stopp og JPMorgan/Citigroup kursmål: https://www.defenseworld.net/2026/03/04/chevron-nysecvx-stock-price-expected-to-rise-citigroup-analyst-says.html ∙ Tickeron – Chevron og resesjonsrisiko ved Iran-konflikt: https://tickeron.com/blogs/chevron-and-the-iran-conflict-can-cvx-climb-higher-on-rising-oil-11791/ ∙ JPMorgan anbefaler europeiske oljeaksjer (ikke Equinor), via Finansavisen: https://www.finansavisen.no/energi/2026/03/02/8332807/jpmorgan-kjop-europeisk-olje-men-ikke-equinor
- ·11 t sitten🛢️ Strait of Hormuz: Iran's “opening” is political theater — not a real solution Iran announced on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is not closed after all. Many interpret this as a de-escalation. It is not. Background: The Revolutionary Guard declared on Monday, March 2, that the strait was closed and that all ships attempting to pass would be attacked. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is practically paralyzed, and at least eight commercial ships have been attacked in the waters around the strait since then.  The attacks — no one is safe: Already on March 1, UKMTO reported up to five ships being hit: the tanker Skylight was attacked 5 nautical miles from the Musandam Peninsula in Oman, four crew members were injured and 20 evacuated by the Omani navy. The crude oil tanker MKD Vyom was hit 50 nautical miles north of Muscat — one crew member died in the engine room. The product tanker Hercules Star was struck off Mina Saqr.  Two further ships were attacked the same day — one was hit by a projectile 17 nautical miles northwest of Mina Saqr in the UAE, another caught fire after being hit above the waterline 50 nautical miles north of Muscat.  The crucial point: Skylight is a strange target for Iran to choose — the ship has previously been sanctioned for aiding dark fleet tankers. This suggests that Iran does not operate with any discriminatory list of who is “safe”.  Friday's “reversal”: An Iranian military spokesperson now says that the strait is open — but that ships with ties to the USA or Israel are denied passage. (Source: Reuters via Dagbladet, 06.03.2026) Why this is meaningless in practice: Argus Media confirms that UKMTO has established that Iranian broadcasts about closure are not legally binding — the strait is international waters that cannot be unilaterally blocked by a coastal state act.  Iran has nevertheless succeeded through sheer terrorization of the insurance market. As Jakob P. Larsen, Head of Maritime Security at BIMCO, told Fox News: «The Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and adjacent waters are currently the most dangerous place for commercial shipping.»  As former Lieutenant General Arne Bård Dalhaug told Dagbladet on Tuesday: «In practice, Iran only needs to threaten attacks to stop the ships. Insurance premiums will skyrocket.» Market implication: The IEA estimates that an average of 20 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily in 2025 — around 25 percent of the world's seaborne oil trade.  The oil price passed 90 dollars per barrel on Friday, the highest level since 2023. (Source: NTB/Reuters, 06.03.2026) The underlying risk premium does not disappear with a press release from Tehran. Sources: ∙ Dagbladet, 06.03.2026: https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/snur-etter-trussel-om-hormuzstredet/84334638 ∙ Dagbladet, 04.03.2026: https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/helt-naturlig-trekk-fra-iran/84313057 ∙ Maritime Executive, 01.03.2026: https://maritime-executive.com/article/iran-tries-to-intimidate-shipping-with-attacks-in-the-strait-of-hormuz ∙ Ship & Bunker / UKMTO, 01.03.2026: https://shipandbunker.com/news/world/302992-two-more-ships-attacked-in-strait-of-hormuz-ukmto ∙ Argus Media / UKMTO, 05.03.2026: https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2794517-mideast-gulf-ships-receive-hormuz-ban-message-ukmto ∙ Windward Maritime AI Intelligence Daily, 02.03.2026: https://windward.ai/blog/march-2-iran-war-maritime-intelligence-daily/ ∙ Seatrade Maritime, 04.03.2026: https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/containers/container-ship-hit-in-strait-of-hormuz-nearly-150-vessels-trapped·10 t sitten🛢️ Hormuz: Is the US's insurance plan really big enough? The USA is now trying to stabilize shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz with a state insurance framework of 20 billion dollars through US Development Finance Corporation (DFC), combined with possible naval escort for tankers. But the figures raise an interesting question. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase have estimated that full insurance coverage for the ships in the area could require up to 352 billion dollars when including hull damage, oil pollution, salvage, and third-party liability. Compared to this, the DFC scheme only covers a small part of the potential risk. At the same time, there is a practical challenge: The Strait of Hormuz is normally passed by more than 20 large tankers daily. Escorting a significant portion of this traffic through a conflict zone would be a demanding task even for the US Navy. The US administration has therefore signaled that the US Navy may escort tankers through Hormuz if necessary, as part of the plan to keep energy transport running. An analysis mentioned by Morningstar also points to a possible side effect: state guarantees could lead private marine insurance companies to withdraw further from the market. The market therefore still prices significant geopolitical risk. The oil price has already moved above 90 dollars a barrel, and VLCC freight rates have risen sharply in the last week. The question is therefore: Is this enough to get shipping traffic back to normal, or will the risk premium in the energy and shipping market remain high? ⸻ Sources https://www.finansavisen.no/shipping/2026/03/06/8334591/usa-foreslar-forsikringsplan-lover-20-mrdhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-considering-oil-tanker-insurance-support-ease-middle-east-crude-shipments-2026-03-03/https://news.usni.org/2026/03/03/trump-u-s-navy-may-escort-tankers-through-strait-of-hormuz-more-european-warships-en-route-to-medhttps://maritime-executive.com/article/trump-u-s-will-provide-risk-insurance-for-all-shipping-in-the-gulfhttps://www.reinsurancene.ws/us-insurance-proposal-may-not-be-enough-to-restart-shipping-through-the-strait-of-hormuz/https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2794517-mideast-gulf-ships-receive-hormuz-ban-message-ukmto
- ·11 t sitten·2 t sitten · MuokattuIsn't that the same man who predicted oil at 40 here at the end of last year? I think we should be careful about predicting anything. Trump is finished as a politician in the USA if he doesn't end this relatively quickly. It's an election year this year, and if the Democrats win, the man is a sitting duck without political power. So why predict anything at all, one tweet and oil is down 20 dollars in minutes. But… personally I think we will see oil for a long time stay in the 75-85 range and not fall much more than that, that's where it should have been purely fundamentally. No one benefits from oil over 100, absolutely no one. Global recession within 3 months if that happens. Market down 50%. Do we think Trump can stand in it? I'm sitting and looking at the bond market, and I can't see any panic there, these traders tend to be quite good at pricing in risks regarding inflation and there's no panic there that hints at oil over 100… so of course they can be wrong, but for now I choose to see what smart money actually prices in. Not what a hefty short covering in oil does and what this person and other fortune tellers think. Friday: oil rises 15%, while long bond yields fall. Someone is wrong here. The two don't go together.
- ·11 t sitten · MuokattuRas Laffan: Two drones. One-fifth of the world's LNG. And now the US is easing Russia sanctions. On March 2, Iran shot two drones at Qatar. No one died. But the aftermath is shaking the entire global energy market. What happened: QatarEnergy's facility in Ras Laffan – the world's largest LNG export terminal – was hit and immediately shut down all production. The company declared force majeure on all delivery obligations. The result: European gas prices rose by up to 54% in one day – the largest single-day increase since the energy crisis in 2022. Why this is historic: Ras Laffan alone covers about one-fifth of the world's total LNG supply. Goldman Sachs estimates that a one-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz could more than double European gas prices from today's level. We are now on day 7 of the conflict, and Trump has publicly rejected any negotiation with Iran without unconditional surrender. Oil price: On Friday evening, the oil price passed $94/barrel – over 10% up in one day, the highest since September 2023. SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye describes the situation as "crisis levels" without historical precedent: "This is truly immense. We have never experienced this before, so we have no historical data to refer to." He openly states that $100+ is "very likely soon." The strategic logic: Iran chose Qatar as a target even though Qatar is not a war participant. Two drones crippled one-fifth of the world's LNG supply without a single life lost. Analysts at King’s College London point out that Iran "knows exactly what it is doing" – the pressure is directed at the Gulf states to force a ceasefire. Today's most underreported news – the Russia waiver: On Thursday, the US temporarily eased Russia sanctions to allow Russian oil stranded at sea to be delivered and sold to India – valid until April 3, 2026. Analysts estimate this applies to around 125 million barrels of crude oil. Russian oil is now well above the $59/barrel that was assumed in the Russian state budget for 2026. The irony is complete: Trump forced India to cut Russian oil by 25% punitive tariffs a few weeks ago. Now he is lifting his own sanctions because the alternative is an energy collapse in the world's third-largest economy. India has estimated reserves for only 25 days. A longer conflict with lasting damage to infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Kuwait could give Russia a lasting gain – just when Russian state revenues from oil and gas had fallen to a four-year low in January. In short: The war is redistributing global energy trade in real-time. The Strait of Hormuz is paralyzed. Ras Laffan is down. Kuwait is cutting production. India is 25 days from crisis. And the US is lifting Russia sanctions to keep things going. The defense sector and energy security are no longer a long-term thesis – it is now. Positioned accordingly. Sources: ∙ DN / SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye (March 6, 2026): https://www.dn.no/olje/advarer-om-krisenivaer-i-oljeprisen-tror-vi-har-undervurdert-vapenkraften-til-iran/2-1-1955850 ∙ Bloomberg – Qatar LNG shutdown (March 2, 2026): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-02/qatar-stops-lng-production-at-world-s-top-plant-after-attack ∙ Al Jazeera – QatarEnergy halts LNG (March 2, 2026): https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/2/qatarenergy-worlds-largest-lng-firm-halts-production-after-iran-attacks ∙ Bloomberg / AP – Russia waiver (March 6, 2026): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-06/us-issues-license-to-allow-some-russian-oil-sales-to-india-mme5qix4 ∙ The Moscow Times – US Treasury waiver (March 6, 2026): https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/03/06/us-grants-temporary-waiver-to-allow-india-to-buy-russian-oil-as-iran-war-jolts-energy-markets-a92136 ∙ Euronews – 30-day waiver (March 6, 2026): https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/03/06/us-offers-india-30-day-waiver-to-buy-stranded-russian-oil-amid-iran-war-shocks ∙ gCaptain – Goldman Sachs price estimate (March 2, 2026): https://gcaptain.com/qatar-lng-shutdown-iran-drone-attack-ras-laffan/
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