2026 Q1 -tulosraportti
60 päivää sitten
‧33 min
0,39 USD/osake
Irtoamispäivä 13.8.
4,60%Tuotto/v
Tarjoustasot
Ei dataa
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - | - |
Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 22.7. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 6.5. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 4.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 29.10.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 23.7.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 30.4.2025 |
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
·9 t sittenThe attack from the Houthis off Yemen appears more like a spasm than a strategic escalation. It fits into a long series of similar incidents in the Red Sea over the last year, and the market reacts increasingly weaker. The risk is priced in quickly, but disappears just as quickly because the attacks rarely affect the main flow of oil and gas freight. With OPEC+ increasing production and a market already sliding towards surplus, this does not change the fundamental picture. It provides a short geopolitical jolt, but not a lasting price impulse. This is noise – not a structural change. Verified sources Nettavisen – Merchant ship attacked off Yemen https://www.nettavisen.no/nyheter/handelsskip-angrepet-utenfor-jemen/s/5-95-3131792 Reuters – Overview of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east (reuters.com in Bing) BBC – Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/cz4pr2gdg1xt/houthi-attacks (bbc.com in Bing) US CENTCOM – Official reports on maritime attacks https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/STATEMENTS- ·9 t sittenOPEC+ increases production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day from August. The increase is not dramatic in isolation, but it marks a clear shift in strategy. After several months of gradual adjustments, we are now in a phase where OPEC+ is systematically building up the supply side. The market has moved away from geopolitical tightness and into a more normalized price picture where the risk of surplus in 2026 is becoming increasingly clear. Several major players point in the same direction. The IEA warns of an increasing probability of surplus next year, banks are revising Brent expectations down towards 60–75 dollars, and consensus in Reuters surveys is gradually being pulled down from the mid-80s. The market no longer prices scarcity, but a combination of increasing supply and weaker demand. The increase of 188,000 barrels per day itself accounts for about 0.2 percent of global demand and approximately 5.6 million barrels per month. In isolation, this is small, but in sum with previous increases, it builds up a steady and controlled supply pressure that will have an effect over time. This is the backdrop for today's Brent scenarios, where the base case is around 68–78 dollars, the bear case around 60–70 dollars, and the bull case around 80–90 dollars if the market were to tighten again. For Equinor, this is a price picture that means more normalization than drama. With Brent in the 70–80 dollar range, the company still delivers strong cash flow and solid dividends. If the price falls towards the 60–70s, margin pressure becomes apparent, and buybacks become more modest. At prices above 80 dollars, a clear upside opens up again with strong cash flow and increased capital distribution. The conclusion is that this is not a standalone piece of news, but a trend. OPEC+ now accepts a lower price level than in previous cycles, and the market is entering a phase where supply increases and weaker demand set the framework for 2026. For Equinor, this means a more sober, but still robust scenario where the price of Brent once again becomes the most important single factor for returns and capital distribution. Updated and verified sources IEA – Oil Market Report (official) https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report Reuters – OPEC+ and oil price forecasts https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities Reuters Poll – Brent price forecasts https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/reuters-oil-price-poll EIA – Short-Term Energy Outlook (official US forecast) https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo Goldman Sachs – oil price estimates (via Reuters coverage) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/goldman-sachs-oil-forecast
- ·23 t sittenWhat is required to defend an Equinor value of 550kr in 2027? If we are to defend a share value of around 550 kroner in Equinor in 2027, the energy market must practically be in a stable mid-cycle where oil and gas are not in surplus, but also not in an extreme supercycle. This implies that Equinor must be able to deliver normalized earnings of approximately 45 to 55 kroner per share, which historically corresponds to a Brent level in the range of 75 to 85 dollar per barrel and a European gas price (TTF) of around 20 to 30 euro per MWh. The crucial question is whether OPEC+ can actually help keep the market in this range. OPEC+ is not a price actor that targets individual stocks, but a cartel structure that primarily optimizes for three things: fiscal balance in key countries like Saudi Arabia, long-term demand preservation in the oil market, and controlled market share against competitors like American shale. IMF and other analyses show that Saudi Arabia's fiscal balance often lies in the range of around 80–90 dollar per barrel, and that this level has moved up and down with government spending and production changes over time. This means that OPEC+ often has an incentive to support a price floor that is approximately in the same range as what is needed to keep large parts of member countries' budgets in balance. At the same time, OPEC+'s power is limited. When prices become too high, typically over 90 to 100 dollar per barrel, the risk of demand reduction, faster electrification, and higher production from non-OPEC actors like USA, Brazil, and Guyana increases. When prices become too low, OPEC+ tightens production, but their ability to control the market is not absolute, especially in a scenario with strong global supply growth. For gas, the picture is similar, but even more volatile. A level of 20 to 30 euro per MWh in TTF presupposes a normalized LNG market where USA, Qatar, and Australia deliver high volumes, and Europe has a good storage situation without structural supply shocks. This is a level that historically has been more typical for a balanced market than for crisis periods. Overall, this means that an Equinor value of 550 kroner in 2027 does not require an energy crisis or supercycle, but a relatively disciplined OPEC+ that manages to balance production against demand in a global market with moderate growth and continued oil and gas dependence. OPEC+ can indirectly support such a level through production management, but they will not guarantee it, as their decisions will always be guided by their own fiscal and strategic considerations. — Kilder * International Monetary Fund (IMF), Regional Economic Outlook / breakeven estimates: https://www.imf.org * IMF breakeven data (historiske estimater via FRED): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAUPZPIOILBEGUSD * KAPSARC analyse av breakeven og OPEC+ dynamikk: https://www.kapsarc.org * Reuters om OPEC+ produksjonsjusteringer og markedsbalanse: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-likely-raise-oil-output-targets-august-again-sources-say-2026-07-01/ * IEA og generelle markedsbalanser (tilbud/etterspørsel): https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report
- ·1 päivä sitten🛢️ Created a Bear case for the oil and gas price in 2027 for you, and what does it mean for Equinor? When the Iran war is over and Hormuz flows freely, fundamental forces take over. Strong non-OPEC production growth from US shale, Brazil, and Guyana sets new records, while China shows clear signs of weaker domestic demand with oil imports dramatically falling to periods down to 6–8 million barrels per day. OPEC+ can defend a price floor by cutting, but they cannot keep the price artificially high over time in a surplus market. Above 90–100 USD, they risk dampening global demand, accelerating the EV transition, and giving shale producers excessively high margins. Saudi Arabia prefers stable, moderate prices around 70–90 USD to secure long-term market share. The gas price becomes as important as the oil price for Equinor in this scenario. With normalized LNG flow, high European inventories, and weak industrial activity, TTF points towards a low and stable level of 10–20 EUR/MWh – far below the super-profit levels from 2022–2023. Increased LNG supply from the USA, Qatar, and Australia reinforces the picture of structurally lower European gas demand. For Equinor, such a bear case means tougher margins on both oil and gas, lower cash flow, and pressure on dividends and buybacks. The company has a solid balance sheet and a low cost base, but the oil and gas business still constitutes the main bulk. The Renewables segment provides some stability, but is currently too small to compensate for a broad fall in revenues. Bottom line: 2027 could be a range-bound year where fundamental forces (supply greater than demand) trump geopolitics. OPEC+ gains more power without war noise, but will have to work harder than in a long time to keep Brent above 70 USD. This is not investment advice, only a summary of central market mechanisms. Sources: • EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ • Goldman Sachs and bank consensus on 2027 estimates • Data on Chinese oil imports and gas market (Kpler, Vortexa, Reuters, TTF)
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti
60 päivää sitten
‧33 min
0,39 USD/osake
Irtoamispäivä 13.8.
4,60%Tuotto/v
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
- ·9 t sittenThe attack from the Houthis off Yemen appears more like a spasm than a strategic escalation. It fits into a long series of similar incidents in the Red Sea over the last year, and the market reacts increasingly weaker. The risk is priced in quickly, but disappears just as quickly because the attacks rarely affect the main flow of oil and gas freight. With OPEC+ increasing production and a market already sliding towards surplus, this does not change the fundamental picture. It provides a short geopolitical jolt, but not a lasting price impulse. This is noise – not a structural change. Verified sources Nettavisen – Merchant ship attacked off Yemen https://www.nettavisen.no/nyheter/handelsskip-angrepet-utenfor-jemen/s/5-95-3131792 Reuters – Overview of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east (reuters.com in Bing) BBC – Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/cz4pr2gdg1xt/houthi-attacks (bbc.com in Bing) US CENTCOM – Official reports on maritime attacks https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/STATEMENTS
- ·9 t sittenOPEC+ increases production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day from August. The increase is not dramatic in isolation, but it marks a clear shift in strategy. After several months of gradual adjustments, we are now in a phase where OPEC+ is systematically building up the supply side. The market has moved away from geopolitical tightness and into a more normalized price picture where the risk of surplus in 2026 is becoming increasingly clear. Several major players point in the same direction. The IEA warns of an increasing probability of surplus next year, banks are revising Brent expectations down towards 60–75 dollars, and consensus in Reuters surveys is gradually being pulled down from the mid-80s. The market no longer prices scarcity, but a combination of increasing supply and weaker demand. The increase of 188,000 barrels per day itself accounts for about 0.2 percent of global demand and approximately 5.6 million barrels per month. In isolation, this is small, but in sum with previous increases, it builds up a steady and controlled supply pressure that will have an effect over time. This is the backdrop for today's Brent scenarios, where the base case is around 68–78 dollars, the bear case around 60–70 dollars, and the bull case around 80–90 dollars if the market were to tighten again. For Equinor, this is a price picture that means more normalization than drama. With Brent in the 70–80 dollar range, the company still delivers strong cash flow and solid dividends. If the price falls towards the 60–70s, margin pressure becomes apparent, and buybacks become more modest. At prices above 80 dollars, a clear upside opens up again with strong cash flow and increased capital distribution. The conclusion is that this is not a standalone piece of news, but a trend. OPEC+ now accepts a lower price level than in previous cycles, and the market is entering a phase where supply increases and weaker demand set the framework for 2026. For Equinor, this means a more sober, but still robust scenario where the price of Brent once again becomes the most important single factor for returns and capital distribution. Updated and verified sources IEA – Oil Market Report (official) https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report Reuters – OPEC+ and oil price forecasts https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities Reuters Poll – Brent price forecasts https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/reuters-oil-price-poll EIA – Short-Term Energy Outlook (official US forecast) https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo Goldman Sachs – oil price estimates (via Reuters coverage) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/goldman-sachs-oil-forecast
- ·23 t sittenWhat is required to defend an Equinor value of 550kr in 2027? If we are to defend a share value of around 550 kroner in Equinor in 2027, the energy market must practically be in a stable mid-cycle where oil and gas are not in surplus, but also not in an extreme supercycle. This implies that Equinor must be able to deliver normalized earnings of approximately 45 to 55 kroner per share, which historically corresponds to a Brent level in the range of 75 to 85 dollar per barrel and a European gas price (TTF) of around 20 to 30 euro per MWh. The crucial question is whether OPEC+ can actually help keep the market in this range. OPEC+ is not a price actor that targets individual stocks, but a cartel structure that primarily optimizes for three things: fiscal balance in key countries like Saudi Arabia, long-term demand preservation in the oil market, and controlled market share against competitors like American shale. IMF and other analyses show that Saudi Arabia's fiscal balance often lies in the range of around 80–90 dollar per barrel, and that this level has moved up and down with government spending and production changes over time. This means that OPEC+ often has an incentive to support a price floor that is approximately in the same range as what is needed to keep large parts of member countries' budgets in balance. At the same time, OPEC+'s power is limited. When prices become too high, typically over 90 to 100 dollar per barrel, the risk of demand reduction, faster electrification, and higher production from non-OPEC actors like USA, Brazil, and Guyana increases. When prices become too low, OPEC+ tightens production, but their ability to control the market is not absolute, especially in a scenario with strong global supply growth. For gas, the picture is similar, but even more volatile. A level of 20 to 30 euro per MWh in TTF presupposes a normalized LNG market where USA, Qatar, and Australia deliver high volumes, and Europe has a good storage situation without structural supply shocks. This is a level that historically has been more typical for a balanced market than for crisis periods. Overall, this means that an Equinor value of 550 kroner in 2027 does not require an energy crisis or supercycle, but a relatively disciplined OPEC+ that manages to balance production against demand in a global market with moderate growth and continued oil and gas dependence. OPEC+ can indirectly support such a level through production management, but they will not guarantee it, as their decisions will always be guided by their own fiscal and strategic considerations. — Kilder * International Monetary Fund (IMF), Regional Economic Outlook / breakeven estimates: https://www.imf.org * IMF breakeven data (historiske estimater via FRED): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAUPZPIOILBEGUSD * KAPSARC analyse av breakeven og OPEC+ dynamikk: https://www.kapsarc.org * Reuters om OPEC+ produksjonsjusteringer og markedsbalanse: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-likely-raise-oil-output-targets-august-again-sources-say-2026-07-01/ * IEA og generelle markedsbalanser (tilbud/etterspørsel): https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report
- ·1 päivä sitten🛢️ Created a Bear case for the oil and gas price in 2027 for you, and what does it mean for Equinor? When the Iran war is over and Hormuz flows freely, fundamental forces take over. Strong non-OPEC production growth from US shale, Brazil, and Guyana sets new records, while China shows clear signs of weaker domestic demand with oil imports dramatically falling to periods down to 6–8 million barrels per day. OPEC+ can defend a price floor by cutting, but they cannot keep the price artificially high over time in a surplus market. Above 90–100 USD, they risk dampening global demand, accelerating the EV transition, and giving shale producers excessively high margins. Saudi Arabia prefers stable, moderate prices around 70–90 USD to secure long-term market share. The gas price becomes as important as the oil price for Equinor in this scenario. With normalized LNG flow, high European inventories, and weak industrial activity, TTF points towards a low and stable level of 10–20 EUR/MWh – far below the super-profit levels from 2022–2023. Increased LNG supply from the USA, Qatar, and Australia reinforces the picture of structurally lower European gas demand. For Equinor, such a bear case means tougher margins on both oil and gas, lower cash flow, and pressure on dividends and buybacks. The company has a solid balance sheet and a low cost base, but the oil and gas business still constitutes the main bulk. The Renewables segment provides some stability, but is currently too small to compensate for a broad fall in revenues. Bottom line: 2027 could be a range-bound year where fundamental forces (supply greater than demand) trump geopolitics. OPEC+ gains more power without war noise, but will have to work harder than in a long time to keep Brent above 70 USD. This is not investment advice, only a summary of central market mechanisms. Sources: • EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ • Goldman Sachs and bank consensus on 2027 estimates • Data on Chinese oil imports and gas market (Kpler, Vortexa, Reuters, TTF)
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Ei dataa
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - | - |
Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 22.7. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 6.5. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 4.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 29.10.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 23.7.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 30.4.2025 |
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti
60 päivää sitten
‧33 min
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 22.7. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 6.5. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 4.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 29.10.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 23.7.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 30.4.2025 |
0,39 USD/osake
Irtoamispäivä 13.8.
4,60%Tuotto/v
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
- ·9 t sittenThe attack from the Houthis off Yemen appears more like a spasm than a strategic escalation. It fits into a long series of similar incidents in the Red Sea over the last year, and the market reacts increasingly weaker. The risk is priced in quickly, but disappears just as quickly because the attacks rarely affect the main flow of oil and gas freight. With OPEC+ increasing production and a market already sliding towards surplus, this does not change the fundamental picture. It provides a short geopolitical jolt, but not a lasting price impulse. This is noise – not a structural change. Verified sources Nettavisen – Merchant ship attacked off Yemen https://www.nettavisen.no/nyheter/handelsskip-angrepet-utenfor-jemen/s/5-95-3131792 Reuters – Overview of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east (reuters.com in Bing) BBC – Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/cz4pr2gdg1xt/houthi-attacks (bbc.com in Bing) US CENTCOM – Official reports on maritime attacks https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/STATEMENTS
- ·9 t sittenOPEC+ increases production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day from August. The increase is not dramatic in isolation, but it marks a clear shift in strategy. After several months of gradual adjustments, we are now in a phase where OPEC+ is systematically building up the supply side. The market has moved away from geopolitical tightness and into a more normalized price picture where the risk of surplus in 2026 is becoming increasingly clear. Several major players point in the same direction. The IEA warns of an increasing probability of surplus next year, banks are revising Brent expectations down towards 60–75 dollars, and consensus in Reuters surveys is gradually being pulled down from the mid-80s. The market no longer prices scarcity, but a combination of increasing supply and weaker demand. The increase of 188,000 barrels per day itself accounts for about 0.2 percent of global demand and approximately 5.6 million barrels per month. In isolation, this is small, but in sum with previous increases, it builds up a steady and controlled supply pressure that will have an effect over time. This is the backdrop for today's Brent scenarios, where the base case is around 68–78 dollars, the bear case around 60–70 dollars, and the bull case around 80–90 dollars if the market were to tighten again. For Equinor, this is a price picture that means more normalization than drama. With Brent in the 70–80 dollar range, the company still delivers strong cash flow and solid dividends. If the price falls towards the 60–70s, margin pressure becomes apparent, and buybacks become more modest. At prices above 80 dollars, a clear upside opens up again with strong cash flow and increased capital distribution. The conclusion is that this is not a standalone piece of news, but a trend. OPEC+ now accepts a lower price level than in previous cycles, and the market is entering a phase where supply increases and weaker demand set the framework for 2026. For Equinor, this means a more sober, but still robust scenario where the price of Brent once again becomes the most important single factor for returns and capital distribution. Updated and verified sources IEA – Oil Market Report (official) https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report Reuters – OPEC+ and oil price forecasts https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities Reuters Poll – Brent price forecasts https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/reuters-oil-price-poll EIA – Short-Term Energy Outlook (official US forecast) https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo Goldman Sachs – oil price estimates (via Reuters coverage) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/goldman-sachs-oil-forecast
- ·23 t sittenWhat is required to defend an Equinor value of 550kr in 2027? If we are to defend a share value of around 550 kroner in Equinor in 2027, the energy market must practically be in a stable mid-cycle where oil and gas are not in surplus, but also not in an extreme supercycle. This implies that Equinor must be able to deliver normalized earnings of approximately 45 to 55 kroner per share, which historically corresponds to a Brent level in the range of 75 to 85 dollar per barrel and a European gas price (TTF) of around 20 to 30 euro per MWh. The crucial question is whether OPEC+ can actually help keep the market in this range. OPEC+ is not a price actor that targets individual stocks, but a cartel structure that primarily optimizes for three things: fiscal balance in key countries like Saudi Arabia, long-term demand preservation in the oil market, and controlled market share against competitors like American shale. IMF and other analyses show that Saudi Arabia's fiscal balance often lies in the range of around 80–90 dollar per barrel, and that this level has moved up and down with government spending and production changes over time. This means that OPEC+ often has an incentive to support a price floor that is approximately in the same range as what is needed to keep large parts of member countries' budgets in balance. At the same time, OPEC+'s power is limited. When prices become too high, typically over 90 to 100 dollar per barrel, the risk of demand reduction, faster electrification, and higher production from non-OPEC actors like USA, Brazil, and Guyana increases. When prices become too low, OPEC+ tightens production, but their ability to control the market is not absolute, especially in a scenario with strong global supply growth. For gas, the picture is similar, but even more volatile. A level of 20 to 30 euro per MWh in TTF presupposes a normalized LNG market where USA, Qatar, and Australia deliver high volumes, and Europe has a good storage situation without structural supply shocks. This is a level that historically has been more typical for a balanced market than for crisis periods. Overall, this means that an Equinor value of 550 kroner in 2027 does not require an energy crisis or supercycle, but a relatively disciplined OPEC+ that manages to balance production against demand in a global market with moderate growth and continued oil and gas dependence. OPEC+ can indirectly support such a level through production management, but they will not guarantee it, as their decisions will always be guided by their own fiscal and strategic considerations. — Kilder * International Monetary Fund (IMF), Regional Economic Outlook / breakeven estimates: https://www.imf.org * IMF breakeven data (historiske estimater via FRED): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAUPZPIOILBEGUSD * KAPSARC analyse av breakeven og OPEC+ dynamikk: https://www.kapsarc.org * Reuters om OPEC+ produksjonsjusteringer og markedsbalanse: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-likely-raise-oil-output-targets-august-again-sources-say-2026-07-01/ * IEA og generelle markedsbalanser (tilbud/etterspørsel): https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report
- ·1 päivä sitten🛢️ Created a Bear case for the oil and gas price in 2027 for you, and what does it mean for Equinor? When the Iran war is over and Hormuz flows freely, fundamental forces take over. Strong non-OPEC production growth from US shale, Brazil, and Guyana sets new records, while China shows clear signs of weaker domestic demand with oil imports dramatically falling to periods down to 6–8 million barrels per day. OPEC+ can defend a price floor by cutting, but they cannot keep the price artificially high over time in a surplus market. Above 90–100 USD, they risk dampening global demand, accelerating the EV transition, and giving shale producers excessively high margins. Saudi Arabia prefers stable, moderate prices around 70–90 USD to secure long-term market share. The gas price becomes as important as the oil price for Equinor in this scenario. With normalized LNG flow, high European inventories, and weak industrial activity, TTF points towards a low and stable level of 10–20 EUR/MWh – far below the super-profit levels from 2022–2023. Increased LNG supply from the USA, Qatar, and Australia reinforces the picture of structurally lower European gas demand. For Equinor, such a bear case means tougher margins on both oil and gas, lower cash flow, and pressure on dividends and buybacks. The company has a solid balance sheet and a low cost base, but the oil and gas business still constitutes the main bulk. The Renewables segment provides some stability, but is currently too small to compensate for a broad fall in revenues. Bottom line: 2027 could be a range-bound year where fundamental forces (supply greater than demand) trump geopolitics. OPEC+ gains more power without war noise, but will have to work harder than in a long time to keep Brent above 70 USD. This is not investment advice, only a summary of central market mechanisms. Sources: • EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ • Goldman Sachs and bank consensus on 2027 estimates • Data on Chinese oil imports and gas market (Kpler, Vortexa, Reuters, TTF)
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Ei dataa
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - | - |
Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
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