2026 Q2 -tulosraportti
46 päivää sitten
‧28 min
3,6277 NOK/osake
Irtoamispäivä 13.11.
3,70%Tuotto/v
Tarjoustasot
Määrä
Osto
-
Myynti
Määrä
-
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | - | - | ||
| 1 871 | - | - | ||
| 21 | - | - | ||
| 800 | - | - | ||
| 68 | - | - |
Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Rahastot ja ETF:t, joilla on osaketta
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q3 -tulosraportti 28.10. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 22.7. | ||
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 6.5. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 4.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 29.10.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 23.7.2025 |
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
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4 t sittenOil has become a supply story, and that changes the case for energy equities Brent is trading around $95 after its strongest weekly gain since mid-July, and the obvious question is whether oil has simply become too expensive. I think that is the wrong question. What has changed this year is not that the world suddenly wants dramatically more oil, but that fewer barrels are reliably reaching the market. The evidence is consistent across three fronts. Reuters reported on 4 September that only four commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, against a ten-day average of roughly 15 and around 125 per day before the conflict began on 28 February. On 1 September Reuters reported that, for the first time on record, Iran had gone about seven weeks without shipping meaningful crude through Hormuz, with no cargoes reaching China since the blockade was reinstated on 14 July. Tehran is still loading 220,000 to 255,000 barrels per day and drawing on floating storage, so this is not a complete stop, but it is a long way from March levels of roughly 2 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, Ukrainian strikes have taken Lukoil's NORSI refinery and the Novatek complex at Ust-Luga offline, which matters less for global crude supply than for refined products and regional balances. Against that, OPEC+ left October output policy unchanged on 6 September, and Jorge León at Rystad Energy said plainly that the group currently has very limited power over the physical oil market. That is the heart of it. What increasingly sets the price is which barrels can physically reach a buyer, not what spare capacity exists on paper. The IEA puts the global deficit at around 1.8 million barrels per day this quarter, and the analyst estimates Reuters compiled on 31 August range from 1.65 million to 3.5 million. If that persists, the deliverable barrel keeps repricing higher. This is where my position in BGF World Energy comes in. The fund is not a leveraged bet on Brent. BlackRock's mandate is to hold at least 70 per cent of assets in companies whose predominant activity is the exploration, development, production and distribution of energy, and as of 31 July the largest positions were Shell, Chevron, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil and Valero. That spread matters, because a prolonged supply shock does not hit just one link in the chain. Higher crude prices can lift upstream cash flow, tight product markets can support refiners, and constrained infrastructure can benefit selected midstream names. The integrated majors have exposure across several parts of the value chain. So the variable I care about is not whether Brent prints $120. It is whether the market stays tight long enough for higher prices to convert into free cash flow, dividends and buybacks. The bear case is serious and I want it stated properly. Goldman Sachs' March analysis put the impact of a full one-month closure of Hormuz at roughly $15 per barrel absent offsets, which is far below the more dramatic numbers being thrown around. Reuters' own analyst poll on 31 August produced a 2026 Brent average of about $85, below spot. The IEA cut its 2026 demand forecast on 12 August precisely because of Hormuz, so demand destruction at these levels is live. And on 6 September Reuters reported that Iran's leverage is eroding while mediators discuss a formula around shipping fees. We have already seen how fast this can unwind: in mid-June, as a framework agreement approached signing in Geneva, Brent fell roughly 5 per cent on two consecutive days to $78.24, its lowest since 3 March. So the biggest risk to the thesis is not weak demand. It is de-escalation. If Hormuz normalises and Iranian barrels return quickly, Brent could fall sharply and energy equities could hand back the geopolitical premium. If the disruption persists, the opposite gets more interesting. At $95, the real question is whether the market is underestimating the value of the barrels that can actually be delivered. That is the part of the oil story that makes me constructive on BGF World Energy. Disclosure: I hold a position in BGF World Energy. Not investment advice. These are my own views. Research, source verification and drafting were assisted by AI. Sources: Reuters, 6 September 2026: OPEC+ keeps oil output policy unchanged for October https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-set-keep-oil-output-policy-unchanged-sunday-sources-say-2026-09-06/ Reuters, 6 September 2026: Iran's Hormuz leverage wanes as US economic squeeze bites https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/irans-hormuz-leverage-wanes-us-economic-squeeze-bites-2026-09-06/ Reuters, 4 September 2026: Gulf shipping traffic via Hormuz keeps below 10-day average https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gulf-shipping-traffic-via-hormuz-keeps-below-10-day-average-data-shows-2026-09-04/ Reuters, 1 September 2026: Blockade succeeds where sanctions failed as Iran oil exports stall https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/blockade-su- ·1 päivä sittenIranian media: Explosions heard near Kharg Island PUBLISHED AT 09:02 IIRAN Explosions have been heard near the Iranian Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf, reports the Iranian state news agency Fars Saturday morning. There is no visible smoke in the area, according to the correspondent who reported the explosions. According to the state news agency SNN, an Iranian oil tanker has been hit by a missile. The cause is not known, and no casualties have been reported. The oil facilities on Kharg handle almost all of Iran's crude oil exports.
- 1 päivä sittenPickaxe Mountain, Brent and Equinor: the risk is the response, not the strike Trump has repeatedly named Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, or Pickaxe Mountain, as the next target in Iran. The tunnel complex sits south of Natanz, roughly 100 metres underground, never inspected by the IAEA, and Israeli intelligence has reportedly told Washington that centrifuges have been moved inside. The doctrine behind this is stable across administrations: the US will not accept an Iranian nuclear weapon. The constraint is physical, not political. Experts believe the tunnels sit deeper than even the GBU-57 can reach, which is why the mountain is still standing after months of threats. For energy exposure, the strike itself is not the trade. A nuclear site is not a terminal, so nothing hits the supply balance directly. The entire transmission runs through Iran's response, and Tehran has already told CNN it would be devastating. The setup is that most of the war premium is priced. Brent traded above $96 Thursday at six week highs, and Hormuz throughput has collapsed from 21.6 to 4.9 million b/d, down 77 percent. The EIA sees Brent averaging $87 in 2026 with no return toward pre-war supply until early 2027. The tail is still violent in both directions: dated Brent cleared $140 in March with Hormuz effectively shut, and fell to $69 on July 2 on the US-Iran memorandum before rebounding to $105 by July 23. Equinor is the cleanest way to own that asymmetry. No Gulf production means no physical downside from escalation, so the Norwegian shelf captures the full uplift on every dollar of war premium, with European gas as the underpriced second leg. The stock printed an all-time high of NOK 422.30 on March 31 at peak Hormuz panic and sat at 385.80 in mid August, with a beta near 1.98 and a 2025 dividend yield of 6.18 percent. You get paid to hold it, but you wear the volatility. My read is that the skew is still to the upside near term, but the edge is not in guessing whether the mountain gets hit. It is in owning production outside the conflict zone and sitting through the noise. The real risk is buying a headline top and holding into a deal that takes Brent back to the seventies in weeks. Question for the forum: is the current war premium too thin given Hormuz is running at a fifth of capacity, or is the market already pricing a reopening that is not coming? Disclosure: energy exposure via BGF World Energy A2, plus a position in AuAg Silver Bullet. Not investment advice. This post was researched and drafted with the help of AI, and all sources are linked below for verification. Sources: https://www.vg.no/nyheter/i/m0WJMl/trump-sier-usa-kan-snart-angripe-iransk-atomanlegg https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5983210-trump-threatens-pickaxe-mountain-strike/ https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/what-to-know-about-irans-pickaxe-mountain-home-to-an-underground-nuclear-site-threatened-by-trump https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/03/oil-price-today-iran-war-strait-hormuz.html https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php https://www.investtech.com/no/market.php?CompanyID=100820
- 2 päivää sitten · MuokattuCold Winter, Continued Hormuz Disruption: Gas Is the Trade, Crude Is the Backdrop Cold winter plus continued Gulf disruption is a clean bull case for European gas. For crude, it is mostly backdrop. TTF is above €70/MWh, the highest since early 2023, with Gulf LNG, including Qatar, constrained by the Hormuz disruption. Europe entered autumn with relatively low storage, and inventories typically bottom at winter's end. A cold December through February can drain storage faster, leaving February and March most exposed, precisely when refilling for the following winter becomes urgent. Goldman flags December TTF potentially above €100 if Middle East supply normalises only gradually; Morningstar sees €90 to €120 in a cold-winter scenario. Brent is global. The Hormuz premium outweighs European weather, and the EIA sees Brent around $85 in Q3 before easing toward $69 in 2027 as supply normalises. Cold weather is a second-order factor for crude itself. The trade also only works if the disruption holds: a durable ceasefire and reopening of Hormuz could drain the premium quickly, and equities may only partially capitalise a premium viewed as temporary. For positioning, the distinction is clear. Equinor is the sharp instrument: gas-weighted, with Norwegian pipeline gas becoming more valuable precisely when Gulf LNG is constrained, offset by Norway's petroleum tax and potential NOK strength. BGF World Energy is the blunt one, more oil-weighted, so a TTF spike reaches the portfolio in diluted form. Shell and TotalEnergies bring meaningful LNG exposure, while Valero and Marathon Petroleum are primarily crack-spread plays rather than direct bets on the crude price. The key question: is late winter 2027 underpriced as an energy catalyst, or is it already embedded in the forward curve? Written with assistance of AI. Sources: https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/08/31/european-natural-gas-price-tops-70-for-first-time-since-january-2023 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/27/europe-gas-storage-prices-winter-lng.html https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-august-2026 https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas/news/523929
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti
46 päivää sitten
‧28 min
3,6277 NOK/osake
Irtoamispäivä 13.11.
3,70%Tuotto/v
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
- 4 t sittenOil has become a supply story, and that changes the case for energy equities Brent is trading around $95 after its strongest weekly gain since mid-July, and the obvious question is whether oil has simply become too expensive. I think that is the wrong question. What has changed this year is not that the world suddenly wants dramatically more oil, but that fewer barrels are reliably reaching the market. The evidence is consistent across three fronts. Reuters reported on 4 September that only four commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, against a ten-day average of roughly 15 and around 125 per day before the conflict began on 28 February. On 1 September Reuters reported that, for the first time on record, Iran had gone about seven weeks without shipping meaningful crude through Hormuz, with no cargoes reaching China since the blockade was reinstated on 14 July. Tehran is still loading 220,000 to 255,000 barrels per day and drawing on floating storage, so this is not a complete stop, but it is a long way from March levels of roughly 2 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, Ukrainian strikes have taken Lukoil's NORSI refinery and the Novatek complex at Ust-Luga offline, which matters less for global crude supply than for refined products and regional balances. Against that, OPEC+ left October output policy unchanged on 6 September, and Jorge León at Rystad Energy said plainly that the group currently has very limited power over the physical oil market. That is the heart of it. What increasingly sets the price is which barrels can physically reach a buyer, not what spare capacity exists on paper. The IEA puts the global deficit at around 1.8 million barrels per day this quarter, and the analyst estimates Reuters compiled on 31 August range from 1.65 million to 3.5 million. If that persists, the deliverable barrel keeps repricing higher. This is where my position in BGF World Energy comes in. The fund is not a leveraged bet on Brent. BlackRock's mandate is to hold at least 70 per cent of assets in companies whose predominant activity is the exploration, development, production and distribution of energy, and as of 31 July the largest positions were Shell, Chevron, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil and Valero. That spread matters, because a prolonged supply shock does not hit just one link in the chain. Higher crude prices can lift upstream cash flow, tight product markets can support refiners, and constrained infrastructure can benefit selected midstream names. The integrated majors have exposure across several parts of the value chain. So the variable I care about is not whether Brent prints $120. It is whether the market stays tight long enough for higher prices to convert into free cash flow, dividends and buybacks. The bear case is serious and I want it stated properly. Goldman Sachs' March analysis put the impact of a full one-month closure of Hormuz at roughly $15 per barrel absent offsets, which is far below the more dramatic numbers being thrown around. Reuters' own analyst poll on 31 August produced a 2026 Brent average of about $85, below spot. The IEA cut its 2026 demand forecast on 12 August precisely because of Hormuz, so demand destruction at these levels is live. And on 6 September Reuters reported that Iran's leverage is eroding while mediators discuss a formula around shipping fees. We have already seen how fast this can unwind: in mid-June, as a framework agreement approached signing in Geneva, Brent fell roughly 5 per cent on two consecutive days to $78.24, its lowest since 3 March. So the biggest risk to the thesis is not weak demand. It is de-escalation. If Hormuz normalises and Iranian barrels return quickly, Brent could fall sharply and energy equities could hand back the geopolitical premium. If the disruption persists, the opposite gets more interesting. At $95, the real question is whether the market is underestimating the value of the barrels that can actually be delivered. That is the part of the oil story that makes me constructive on BGF World Energy. Disclosure: I hold a position in BGF World Energy. Not investment advice. These are my own views. Research, source verification and drafting were assisted by AI. Sources: Reuters, 6 September 2026: OPEC+ keeps oil output policy unchanged for October https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-set-keep-oil-output-policy-unchanged-sunday-sources-say-2026-09-06/ Reuters, 6 September 2026: Iran's Hormuz leverage wanes as US economic squeeze bites https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/irans-hormuz-leverage-wanes-us-economic-squeeze-bites-2026-09-06/ Reuters, 4 September 2026: Gulf shipping traffic via Hormuz keeps below 10-day average https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gulf-shipping-traffic-via-hormuz-keeps-below-10-day-average-data-shows-2026-09-04/ Reuters, 1 September 2026: Blockade succeeds where sanctions failed as Iran oil exports stall https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/blockade-su
- ·1 päivä sittenIranian media: Explosions heard near Kharg Island PUBLISHED AT 09:02 IIRAN Explosions have been heard near the Iranian Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf, reports the Iranian state news agency Fars Saturday morning. There is no visible smoke in the area, according to the correspondent who reported the explosions. According to the state news agency SNN, an Iranian oil tanker has been hit by a missile. The cause is not known, and no casualties have been reported. The oil facilities on Kharg handle almost all of Iran's crude oil exports.
- 1 päivä sittenPickaxe Mountain, Brent and Equinor: the risk is the response, not the strike Trump has repeatedly named Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, or Pickaxe Mountain, as the next target in Iran. The tunnel complex sits south of Natanz, roughly 100 metres underground, never inspected by the IAEA, and Israeli intelligence has reportedly told Washington that centrifuges have been moved inside. The doctrine behind this is stable across administrations: the US will not accept an Iranian nuclear weapon. The constraint is physical, not political. Experts believe the tunnels sit deeper than even the GBU-57 can reach, which is why the mountain is still standing after months of threats. For energy exposure, the strike itself is not the trade. A nuclear site is not a terminal, so nothing hits the supply balance directly. The entire transmission runs through Iran's response, and Tehran has already told CNN it would be devastating. The setup is that most of the war premium is priced. Brent traded above $96 Thursday at six week highs, and Hormuz throughput has collapsed from 21.6 to 4.9 million b/d, down 77 percent. The EIA sees Brent averaging $87 in 2026 with no return toward pre-war supply until early 2027. The tail is still violent in both directions: dated Brent cleared $140 in March with Hormuz effectively shut, and fell to $69 on July 2 on the US-Iran memorandum before rebounding to $105 by July 23. Equinor is the cleanest way to own that asymmetry. No Gulf production means no physical downside from escalation, so the Norwegian shelf captures the full uplift on every dollar of war premium, with European gas as the underpriced second leg. The stock printed an all-time high of NOK 422.30 on March 31 at peak Hormuz panic and sat at 385.80 in mid August, with a beta near 1.98 and a 2025 dividend yield of 6.18 percent. You get paid to hold it, but you wear the volatility. My read is that the skew is still to the upside near term, but the edge is not in guessing whether the mountain gets hit. It is in owning production outside the conflict zone and sitting through the noise. The real risk is buying a headline top and holding into a deal that takes Brent back to the seventies in weeks. Question for the forum: is the current war premium too thin given Hormuz is running at a fifth of capacity, or is the market already pricing a reopening that is not coming? Disclosure: energy exposure via BGF World Energy A2, plus a position in AuAg Silver Bullet. Not investment advice. This post was researched and drafted with the help of AI, and all sources are linked below for verification. Sources: https://www.vg.no/nyheter/i/m0WJMl/trump-sier-usa-kan-snart-angripe-iransk-atomanlegg https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5983210-trump-threatens-pickaxe-mountain-strike/ https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/what-to-know-about-irans-pickaxe-mountain-home-to-an-underground-nuclear-site-threatened-by-trump https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/03/oil-price-today-iran-war-strait-hormuz.html https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php https://www.investtech.com/no/market.php?CompanyID=100820
- 2 päivää sitten · MuokattuCold Winter, Continued Hormuz Disruption: Gas Is the Trade, Crude Is the Backdrop Cold winter plus continued Gulf disruption is a clean bull case for European gas. For crude, it is mostly backdrop. TTF is above €70/MWh, the highest since early 2023, with Gulf LNG, including Qatar, constrained by the Hormuz disruption. Europe entered autumn with relatively low storage, and inventories typically bottom at winter's end. A cold December through February can drain storage faster, leaving February and March most exposed, precisely when refilling for the following winter becomes urgent. Goldman flags December TTF potentially above €100 if Middle East supply normalises only gradually; Morningstar sees €90 to €120 in a cold-winter scenario. Brent is global. The Hormuz premium outweighs European weather, and the EIA sees Brent around $85 in Q3 before easing toward $69 in 2027 as supply normalises. Cold weather is a second-order factor for crude itself. The trade also only works if the disruption holds: a durable ceasefire and reopening of Hormuz could drain the premium quickly, and equities may only partially capitalise a premium viewed as temporary. For positioning, the distinction is clear. Equinor is the sharp instrument: gas-weighted, with Norwegian pipeline gas becoming more valuable precisely when Gulf LNG is constrained, offset by Norway's petroleum tax and potential NOK strength. BGF World Energy is the blunt one, more oil-weighted, so a TTF spike reaches the portfolio in diluted form. Shell and TotalEnergies bring meaningful LNG exposure, while Valero and Marathon Petroleum are primarily crack-spread plays rather than direct bets on the crude price. The key question: is late winter 2027 underpriced as an energy catalyst, or is it already embedded in the forward curve? Written with assistance of AI. Sources: https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/08/31/european-natural-gas-price-tops-70-for-first-time-since-january-2023 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/27/europe-gas-storage-prices-winter-lng.html https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-august-2026 https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas/news/523929
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Määrä
Osto
-
Myynti
Määrä
-
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | - | - | ||
| 1 871 | - | - | ||
| 21 | - | - | ||
| 800 | - | - | ||
| 68 | - | - |
Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Rahastot ja ETF:t, joilla on osaketta
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q3 -tulosraportti 28.10. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 22.7. | ||
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 6.5. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 4.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 29.10.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 23.7.2025 |
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti
46 päivää sitten
‧28 min
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q3 -tulosraportti 28.10. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 22.7. | ||
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 6.5. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 4.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 29.10.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 23.7.2025 |
3,6277 NOK/osake
Irtoamispäivä 13.11.
3,70%Tuotto/v
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
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- 4 t sittenOil has become a supply story, and that changes the case for energy equities Brent is trading around $95 after its strongest weekly gain since mid-July, and the obvious question is whether oil has simply become too expensive. I think that is the wrong question. What has changed this year is not that the world suddenly wants dramatically more oil, but that fewer barrels are reliably reaching the market. The evidence is consistent across three fronts. Reuters reported on 4 September that only four commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, against a ten-day average of roughly 15 and around 125 per day before the conflict began on 28 February. On 1 September Reuters reported that, for the first time on record, Iran had gone about seven weeks without shipping meaningful crude through Hormuz, with no cargoes reaching China since the blockade was reinstated on 14 July. Tehran is still loading 220,000 to 255,000 barrels per day and drawing on floating storage, so this is not a complete stop, but it is a long way from March levels of roughly 2 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, Ukrainian strikes have taken Lukoil's NORSI refinery and the Novatek complex at Ust-Luga offline, which matters less for global crude supply than for refined products and regional balances. Against that, OPEC+ left October output policy unchanged on 6 September, and Jorge León at Rystad Energy said plainly that the group currently has very limited power over the physical oil market. That is the heart of it. What increasingly sets the price is which barrels can physically reach a buyer, not what spare capacity exists on paper. The IEA puts the global deficit at around 1.8 million barrels per day this quarter, and the analyst estimates Reuters compiled on 31 August range from 1.65 million to 3.5 million. If that persists, the deliverable barrel keeps repricing higher. This is where my position in BGF World Energy comes in. The fund is not a leveraged bet on Brent. BlackRock's mandate is to hold at least 70 per cent of assets in companies whose predominant activity is the exploration, development, production and distribution of energy, and as of 31 July the largest positions were Shell, Chevron, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil and Valero. That spread matters, because a prolonged supply shock does not hit just one link in the chain. Higher crude prices can lift upstream cash flow, tight product markets can support refiners, and constrained infrastructure can benefit selected midstream names. The integrated majors have exposure across several parts of the value chain. So the variable I care about is not whether Brent prints $120. It is whether the market stays tight long enough for higher prices to convert into free cash flow, dividends and buybacks. The bear case is serious and I want it stated properly. Goldman Sachs' March analysis put the impact of a full one-month closure of Hormuz at roughly $15 per barrel absent offsets, which is far below the more dramatic numbers being thrown around. Reuters' own analyst poll on 31 August produced a 2026 Brent average of about $85, below spot. The IEA cut its 2026 demand forecast on 12 August precisely because of Hormuz, so demand destruction at these levels is live. And on 6 September Reuters reported that Iran's leverage is eroding while mediators discuss a formula around shipping fees. We have already seen how fast this can unwind: in mid-June, as a framework agreement approached signing in Geneva, Brent fell roughly 5 per cent on two consecutive days to $78.24, its lowest since 3 March. So the biggest risk to the thesis is not weak demand. It is de-escalation. If Hormuz normalises and Iranian barrels return quickly, Brent could fall sharply and energy equities could hand back the geopolitical premium. If the disruption persists, the opposite gets more interesting. At $95, the real question is whether the market is underestimating the value of the barrels that can actually be delivered. That is the part of the oil story that makes me constructive on BGF World Energy. Disclosure: I hold a position in BGF World Energy. Not investment advice. These are my own views. Research, source verification and drafting were assisted by AI. Sources: Reuters, 6 September 2026: OPEC+ keeps oil output policy unchanged for October https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-set-keep-oil-output-policy-unchanged-sunday-sources-say-2026-09-06/ Reuters, 6 September 2026: Iran's Hormuz leverage wanes as US economic squeeze bites https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/irans-hormuz-leverage-wanes-us-economic-squeeze-bites-2026-09-06/ Reuters, 4 September 2026: Gulf shipping traffic via Hormuz keeps below 10-day average https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gulf-shipping-traffic-via-hormuz-keeps-below-10-day-average-data-shows-2026-09-04/ Reuters, 1 September 2026: Blockade succeeds where sanctions failed as Iran oil exports stall https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/blockade-su
- ·1 päivä sittenIranian media: Explosions heard near Kharg Island PUBLISHED AT 09:02 IIRAN Explosions have been heard near the Iranian Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf, reports the Iranian state news agency Fars Saturday morning. There is no visible smoke in the area, according to the correspondent who reported the explosions. According to the state news agency SNN, an Iranian oil tanker has been hit by a missile. The cause is not known, and no casualties have been reported. The oil facilities on Kharg handle almost all of Iran's crude oil exports.
- 1 päivä sittenPickaxe Mountain, Brent and Equinor: the risk is the response, not the strike Trump has repeatedly named Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, or Pickaxe Mountain, as the next target in Iran. The tunnel complex sits south of Natanz, roughly 100 metres underground, never inspected by the IAEA, and Israeli intelligence has reportedly told Washington that centrifuges have been moved inside. The doctrine behind this is stable across administrations: the US will not accept an Iranian nuclear weapon. The constraint is physical, not political. Experts believe the tunnels sit deeper than even the GBU-57 can reach, which is why the mountain is still standing after months of threats. For energy exposure, the strike itself is not the trade. A nuclear site is not a terminal, so nothing hits the supply balance directly. The entire transmission runs through Iran's response, and Tehran has already told CNN it would be devastating. The setup is that most of the war premium is priced. Brent traded above $96 Thursday at six week highs, and Hormuz throughput has collapsed from 21.6 to 4.9 million b/d, down 77 percent. The EIA sees Brent averaging $87 in 2026 with no return toward pre-war supply until early 2027. The tail is still violent in both directions: dated Brent cleared $140 in March with Hormuz effectively shut, and fell to $69 on July 2 on the US-Iran memorandum before rebounding to $105 by July 23. Equinor is the cleanest way to own that asymmetry. No Gulf production means no physical downside from escalation, so the Norwegian shelf captures the full uplift on every dollar of war premium, with European gas as the underpriced second leg. The stock printed an all-time high of NOK 422.30 on March 31 at peak Hormuz panic and sat at 385.80 in mid August, with a beta near 1.98 and a 2025 dividend yield of 6.18 percent. You get paid to hold it, but you wear the volatility. My read is that the skew is still to the upside near term, but the edge is not in guessing whether the mountain gets hit. It is in owning production outside the conflict zone and sitting through the noise. The real risk is buying a headline top and holding into a deal that takes Brent back to the seventies in weeks. Question for the forum: is the current war premium too thin given Hormuz is running at a fifth of capacity, or is the market already pricing a reopening that is not coming? Disclosure: energy exposure via BGF World Energy A2, plus a position in AuAg Silver Bullet. Not investment advice. This post was researched and drafted with the help of AI, and all sources are linked below for verification. Sources: https://www.vg.no/nyheter/i/m0WJMl/trump-sier-usa-kan-snart-angripe-iransk-atomanlegg https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5983210-trump-threatens-pickaxe-mountain-strike/ https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/what-to-know-about-irans-pickaxe-mountain-home-to-an-underground-nuclear-site-threatened-by-trump https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/03/oil-price-today-iran-war-strait-hormuz.html https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php https://www.investtech.com/no/market.php?CompanyID=100820
- 2 päivää sitten · MuokattuCold Winter, Continued Hormuz Disruption: Gas Is the Trade, Crude Is the Backdrop Cold winter plus continued Gulf disruption is a clean bull case for European gas. For crude, it is mostly backdrop. TTF is above €70/MWh, the highest since early 2023, with Gulf LNG, including Qatar, constrained by the Hormuz disruption. Europe entered autumn with relatively low storage, and inventories typically bottom at winter's end. A cold December through February can drain storage faster, leaving February and March most exposed, precisely when refilling for the following winter becomes urgent. Goldman flags December TTF potentially above €100 if Middle East supply normalises only gradually; Morningstar sees €90 to €120 in a cold-winter scenario. Brent is global. The Hormuz premium outweighs European weather, and the EIA sees Brent around $85 in Q3 before easing toward $69 in 2027 as supply normalises. Cold weather is a second-order factor for crude itself. The trade also only works if the disruption holds: a durable ceasefire and reopening of Hormuz could drain the premium quickly, and equities may only partially capitalise a premium viewed as temporary. For positioning, the distinction is clear. Equinor is the sharp instrument: gas-weighted, with Norwegian pipeline gas becoming more valuable precisely when Gulf LNG is constrained, offset by Norway's petroleum tax and potential NOK strength. BGF World Energy is the blunt one, more oil-weighted, so a TTF spike reaches the portfolio in diluted form. Shell and TotalEnergies bring meaningful LNG exposure, while Valero and Marathon Petroleum are primarily crack-spread plays rather than direct bets on the crude price. The key question: is late winter 2027 underpriced as an energy catalyst, or is it already embedded in the forward curve? Written with assistance of AI. Sources: https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/08/31/european-natural-gas-price-tops-70-for-first-time-since-january-2023 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/27/europe-gas-storage-prices-winter-lng.html https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-august-2026 https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas/news/523929
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