2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
36 päivää sitten
‧59 min
1,78 USD/osake
Viimeisin osinko
3,64%Tuotto/v
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Määrä
Osto
-
Myynti
Määrä
-
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - | - |
Ylin
192,4VWAP
Alin
188,12VaihtoMäärä
1 087,3 10 545 440
VWAP
Ylin
192,4Alin
188,12VaihtoMäärä
1 087,3 10 545 440
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Dataa ei löytynyt
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 24.4. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 30.1. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 31.10.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 1.8.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 2.5.2025 | ||
2024 Q4 -tulosraportti 31.1.2025 |
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
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Kirjaudu
7 t sitten7 t sitten🛢️ The Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s “reversal” is political theatre — not a genuine resolution Iran announced on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is, after all, not closed. Many have interpreted this as a de-escalation. It is not. Background: The Revolutionary Guard declared on Monday, 2 March, that the strait was closed and that any vessel attempting to transit would be attacked. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has in practice ground to a halt, and at least eight commercial ships have been attacked in the surrounding waters since then. The attacks — no one is safe: As early as 1 March, UKMTO reported up to five vessels struck: the tanker Skylight was attacked five nautical miles from the Musandam Peninsula in Oman — four crew members were injured and 20 evacuated by the Omani Navy. The crude oil tanker MKD Vyom was hit 50 nautical miles north of Muscat — one crew member perished in the engine room. The product tanker Hercules Star was struck off Mina Saqr. Two further vessels were attacked the same day — one was hit by a projectile 17 nautical miles north-west of Mina Saqr in the UAE; another caught fire after being struck above the waterline 50 nautical miles north of Muscat. The telling detail: Skylight is a curious target for Iran to select — the vessel had previously been sanctioned for assisting dark fleet tankers. This suggests Iran is not operating with any discriminating list of who qualifies as “safe.” Friday’s “reversal”: An Iranian military spokesman now states that the strait is open — but that vessels with ties to the United States or Israel will be denied passage. (Source: Reuters via Dagbladet, 06.03.2026) Why this is meaningless in practice: Argus Media confirms that UKMTO has established that Iranian broadcasts declaring a closure carry no legal force — the strait is international waters and cannot unilaterally be sealed by a coastal state’s decree. Iran has nonetheless succeeded through the sheer terrorisation of the insurance market. As Jakob P. Larsen, Head of Maritime Security at BIMCO, told Fox News: “The Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waters are the most dangerous place right now for commercial shipping.” As former Lieutenant General Arne Bård Dalhaug told Dagbladet on Tuesday: “In practice, Iran only needs to threaten attacks to stop the ships. Insurance premiums will go through the roof.” Market implication: The IEA estimates that an average of 20 million barrels of oil per day transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 — roughly 25 per cent of the world’s seaborne oil trade. Oil prices crossed $90 per barrel on Friday, the highest level since 2023. (Source: NTB/Reuters, 06.03.2026) The underlying risk premium does not vanish on account of a press release from Tehran. Sources: ∙ Dagbladet, 06.03.2026: https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/snur-etter-trussel-om-hormuzstredet/84334638 ∙ Dagbladet, 04.03.2026: https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/helt-naturlig-trekk-fra-iran/84313057 ∙ Maritime Executive, 01.03.2026: https://maritime-executive.com/article/iran-tries-to-intimidate-shipping-with-attacks-in-the-strait-of-hormuz ∙ Ship & Bunker / UKMTO, 01.03.2026: https://shipandbunker.com/news/world/302992-two-more-ships-attacked-in-strait-of-hormuz-ukmto ∙ Argus Media / UKMTO, 05.03.2026: https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2794517-mideast-gulf-ships-receive-hormuz-ban-message-ukmto ∙ Windward Maritime AI Intelligence Daily, 02.03.2026: https://windward.ai/blog/march-2-iran-war-maritime-intelligence-daily/ ∙ Seatrade Maritime, 04.03.2026: https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/containers/container-ship-hit-in-strait-of-hormuz-nearly-150-vessels-trapped·7 t sitten🛢️ Hormuz: Is the US's insurance plan really big enough? The USA is now trying to stabilize shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz with a state insurance framework of 20 billion dollars through US Development Finance Corporation (DFC), combined with possible naval escort for tankers. But the figures raise an interesting question. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase have estimated that full insurance coverage for the ships in the area could require up to 352 billion dollars when including hull damage, oil pollution, salvage, and third-party liability. Compared to this, the DFC scheme only covers a small part of the potential risk. At the same time, there is a practical challenge: The Strait of Hormuz is normally passed by more than 20 large tankers daily. Escorting a significant portion of this traffic through a conflict zone would be a demanding task even for the US Navy. The US administration has therefore signaled that the US Navy may escort tankers through Hormuz if necessary, as part of the plan to keep energy transport running. An analysis mentioned by Morningstar also points to a possible side effect: state guarantees could lead private marine insurance companies to withdraw further from the market. The market therefore still prices significant geopolitical risk. The oil price has already moved above 90 dollars a barrel, and VLCC freight rates have risen sharply in the last week. The question is therefore: Is this enough to get shipping traffic back to normal, or will the risk premium in the energy and shipping market remain high? ⸻ Sources https://www.finansavisen.no/shipping/2026/03/06/8334591/usa-foreslar-forsikringsplan-lover-20-mrdhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-considering-oil-tanker-insurance-support-ease-middle-east-crude-shipments-2026-03-03/https://news.usni.org/2026/03/03/trump-u-s-navy-may-escort-tankers-through-strait-of-hormuz-more-european-warships-en-route-to-medhttps://maritime-executive.com/article/trump-u-s-will-provide-risk-insurance-for-all-shipping-in-the-gulfhttps://www.reinsurancene.ws/us-insurance-proposal-may-not-be-enough-to-restart-shipping-through-the-strait-of-hormuz/https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2794517-mideast-gulf-ships-receive-hormuz-ban-message-ukmto- 15 t sitten15 t sittenChevron (CVX) – Why UBS’s Price Target of $212 Is Well-Founded Two structural catalysts the consensus is underpricing: the Hormuz crisis and the Venezuela monopoly. The Strait of Hormuz is reshaping the oil price picture Operation Epic Fury (28 Feb.) fundamentally altered market conditions. The Strait of Hormuz – handling roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply and 22% of global LNG trade – is effectively closed to commercial shipping. Insurance premiums have reached six-year highs, QatarEnergy has halted LNG production, and over 150 tankers are anchored outside the strait. Kpler estimates Brent at $85–90 in a middle scenario, with a tail risk of $150 in a prolonged blockade. Bank of America argues the market is systematically underpricing how durable this geopolitical risk premium has become, and recently raised its price target on CVX. UBS ($212) and Citi ($210) are the analysts who most fully price in the new reality – whilst consensus at $174 remains anchored to pre-Hormuz models. Venezuela – a monopoly no competitor can match Chevron is the only American oil major with continuous operations in Venezuela. CEO Mike Wirth confirmed in January that the company can grow production by +50% within 18–24 months, from 250,000 to roughly 375,000 barrels per day. Venezuela passed hydrocarbon law reforms in January easing state control and granting private operators greater autonomy. Bloomberg reports that the country plans to award Chevron additional production blocks. ExxonMobil has refused to re-enter following repeated nationalisations – Chevron therefore holds a genuine monopoly on the Venezuelan upside that is not reflected in consensus estimates. The fundamentals hold Q4 2025: Record production of 4.05 Mbpd (+12% globally, +16% in the US), adjusted EPS of $1.52 beating the $1.44 estimate, operating cash flow of $10.8 billion, and free cash flow growth of +35% year-on-year despite a 15% fall in oil prices. Net debt coverage of 1x. Structural cost savings of $1.5 billion delivered in 2025, with a target of $3–4 billion by 2026. Dividend raised for the 39th consecutive year. Conclusion: Three factors are converging: a geopolitical risk premium in oil prices, a Venezuelan upside not yet priced in by the market, and operational strength that delivers even in a weak pricing environment. UBS at $212 is the analyst target that best reflects the new reality. Not financial advice. Always conduct your own research. Sources: ∙ Chevron Q4 2025 earnings release (30 Jan. 2026): https://www.chevron.com/newsroom/2026/q1/chevron-reports-fourth-quarter-2025-results ∙ CNBC – Chevron CEO on Venezuela: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/30/chevron-ceo-says-venezuela-taking-positive-steps-to-protect-oil-investment.html ∙ Bloomberg – Venezuela to grant new production blocks to Chevron: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-12/venezuela-to-grant-more-oil-drilling-blocks-to-chevron-repsol ∙ Kpler – Hormuz crisis market implications: https://www.kpler.com/blog/us-iran-conflict-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-reshapes-global-oil-markets ∙ Kpler – $150 scenario under prolonged closure: https://www.kpler.com/blog/hormuz-shock-reprices-crude-but-storage-constraints-force-a-fast-resolution ∙ TheStreet – Bank of America raises CVX target: https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/bank-of-america-resets-chevron-stock-price-target-for-2026 ∙ Al Jazeera – The Strait of Hormuz and oil prices: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/3/shutdown-of-hormuz-strait-raises-fears-of-soaring-oil-prices
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
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2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
36 päivää sitten
‧59 min
1,78 USD/osake
Viimeisin osinko
3,64%Tuotto/v
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
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Kirjaudu
- 7 t sitten7 t sitten🛢️ The Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s “reversal” is political theatre — not a genuine resolution Iran announced on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is, after all, not closed. Many have interpreted this as a de-escalation. It is not. Background: The Revolutionary Guard declared on Monday, 2 March, that the strait was closed and that any vessel attempting to transit would be attacked. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has in practice ground to a halt, and at least eight commercial ships have been attacked in the surrounding waters since then. The attacks — no one is safe: As early as 1 March, UKMTO reported up to five vessels struck: the tanker Skylight was attacked five nautical miles from the Musandam Peninsula in Oman — four crew members were injured and 20 evacuated by the Omani Navy. The crude oil tanker MKD Vyom was hit 50 nautical miles north of Muscat — one crew member perished in the engine room. The product tanker Hercules Star was struck off Mina Saqr. Two further vessels were attacked the same day — one was hit by a projectile 17 nautical miles north-west of Mina Saqr in the UAE; another caught fire after being struck above the waterline 50 nautical miles north of Muscat. The telling detail: Skylight is a curious target for Iran to select — the vessel had previously been sanctioned for assisting dark fleet tankers. This suggests Iran is not operating with any discriminating list of who qualifies as “safe.” Friday’s “reversal”: An Iranian military spokesman now states that the strait is open — but that vessels with ties to the United States or Israel will be denied passage. (Source: Reuters via Dagbladet, 06.03.2026) Why this is meaningless in practice: Argus Media confirms that UKMTO has established that Iranian broadcasts declaring a closure carry no legal force — the strait is international waters and cannot unilaterally be sealed by a coastal state’s decree. Iran has nonetheless succeeded through the sheer terrorisation of the insurance market. As Jakob P. Larsen, Head of Maritime Security at BIMCO, told Fox News: “The Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waters are the most dangerous place right now for commercial shipping.” As former Lieutenant General Arne Bård Dalhaug told Dagbladet on Tuesday: “In practice, Iran only needs to threaten attacks to stop the ships. Insurance premiums will go through the roof.” Market implication: The IEA estimates that an average of 20 million barrels of oil per day transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 — roughly 25 per cent of the world’s seaborne oil trade. Oil prices crossed $90 per barrel on Friday, the highest level since 2023. (Source: NTB/Reuters, 06.03.2026) The underlying risk premium does not vanish on account of a press release from Tehran. Sources: ∙ Dagbladet, 06.03.2026: https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/snur-etter-trussel-om-hormuzstredet/84334638 ∙ Dagbladet, 04.03.2026: https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/helt-naturlig-trekk-fra-iran/84313057 ∙ Maritime Executive, 01.03.2026: https://maritime-executive.com/article/iran-tries-to-intimidate-shipping-with-attacks-in-the-strait-of-hormuz ∙ Ship & Bunker / UKMTO, 01.03.2026: https://shipandbunker.com/news/world/302992-two-more-ships-attacked-in-strait-of-hormuz-ukmto ∙ Argus Media / UKMTO, 05.03.2026: https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2794517-mideast-gulf-ships-receive-hormuz-ban-message-ukmto ∙ Windward Maritime AI Intelligence Daily, 02.03.2026: https://windward.ai/blog/march-2-iran-war-maritime-intelligence-daily/ ∙ Seatrade Maritime, 04.03.2026: https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/containers/container-ship-hit-in-strait-of-hormuz-nearly-150-vessels-trapped·7 t sitten🛢️ Hormuz: Is the US's insurance plan really big enough? The USA is now trying to stabilize shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz with a state insurance framework of 20 billion dollars through US Development Finance Corporation (DFC), combined with possible naval escort for tankers. But the figures raise an interesting question. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase have estimated that full insurance coverage for the ships in the area could require up to 352 billion dollars when including hull damage, oil pollution, salvage, and third-party liability. Compared to this, the DFC scheme only covers a small part of the potential risk. At the same time, there is a practical challenge: The Strait of Hormuz is normally passed by more than 20 large tankers daily. Escorting a significant portion of this traffic through a conflict zone would be a demanding task even for the US Navy. The US administration has therefore signaled that the US Navy may escort tankers through Hormuz if necessary, as part of the plan to keep energy transport running. An analysis mentioned by Morningstar also points to a possible side effect: state guarantees could lead private marine insurance companies to withdraw further from the market. The market therefore still prices significant geopolitical risk. The oil price has already moved above 90 dollars a barrel, and VLCC freight rates have risen sharply in the last week. The question is therefore: Is this enough to get shipping traffic back to normal, or will the risk premium in the energy and shipping market remain high? ⸻ Sources https://www.finansavisen.no/shipping/2026/03/06/8334591/usa-foreslar-forsikringsplan-lover-20-mrdhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-considering-oil-tanker-insurance-support-ease-middle-east-crude-shipments-2026-03-03/https://news.usni.org/2026/03/03/trump-u-s-navy-may-escort-tankers-through-strait-of-hormuz-more-european-warships-en-route-to-medhttps://maritime-executive.com/article/trump-u-s-will-provide-risk-insurance-for-all-shipping-in-the-gulfhttps://www.reinsurancene.ws/us-insurance-proposal-may-not-be-enough-to-restart-shipping-through-the-strait-of-hormuz/https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2794517-mideast-gulf-ships-receive-hormuz-ban-message-ukmto
- 15 t sitten15 t sittenChevron (CVX) – Why UBS’s Price Target of $212 Is Well-Founded Two structural catalysts the consensus is underpricing: the Hormuz crisis and the Venezuela monopoly. The Strait of Hormuz is reshaping the oil price picture Operation Epic Fury (28 Feb.) fundamentally altered market conditions. The Strait of Hormuz – handling roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply and 22% of global LNG trade – is effectively closed to commercial shipping. Insurance premiums have reached six-year highs, QatarEnergy has halted LNG production, and over 150 tankers are anchored outside the strait. Kpler estimates Brent at $85–90 in a middle scenario, with a tail risk of $150 in a prolonged blockade. Bank of America argues the market is systematically underpricing how durable this geopolitical risk premium has become, and recently raised its price target on CVX. UBS ($212) and Citi ($210) are the analysts who most fully price in the new reality – whilst consensus at $174 remains anchored to pre-Hormuz models. Venezuela – a monopoly no competitor can match Chevron is the only American oil major with continuous operations in Venezuela. CEO Mike Wirth confirmed in January that the company can grow production by +50% within 18–24 months, from 250,000 to roughly 375,000 barrels per day. Venezuela passed hydrocarbon law reforms in January easing state control and granting private operators greater autonomy. Bloomberg reports that the country plans to award Chevron additional production blocks. ExxonMobil has refused to re-enter following repeated nationalisations – Chevron therefore holds a genuine monopoly on the Venezuelan upside that is not reflected in consensus estimates. The fundamentals hold Q4 2025: Record production of 4.05 Mbpd (+12% globally, +16% in the US), adjusted EPS of $1.52 beating the $1.44 estimate, operating cash flow of $10.8 billion, and free cash flow growth of +35% year-on-year despite a 15% fall in oil prices. Net debt coverage of 1x. Structural cost savings of $1.5 billion delivered in 2025, with a target of $3–4 billion by 2026. Dividend raised for the 39th consecutive year. Conclusion: Three factors are converging: a geopolitical risk premium in oil prices, a Venezuelan upside not yet priced in by the market, and operational strength that delivers even in a weak pricing environment. UBS at $212 is the analyst target that best reflects the new reality. Not financial advice. Always conduct your own research. Sources: ∙ Chevron Q4 2025 earnings release (30 Jan. 2026): https://www.chevron.com/newsroom/2026/q1/chevron-reports-fourth-quarter-2025-results ∙ CNBC – Chevron CEO on Venezuela: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/30/chevron-ceo-says-venezuela-taking-positive-steps-to-protect-oil-investment.html ∙ Bloomberg – Venezuela to grant new production blocks to Chevron: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-12/venezuela-to-grant-more-oil-drilling-blocks-to-chevron-repsol ∙ Kpler – Hormuz crisis market implications: https://www.kpler.com/blog/us-iran-conflict-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-reshapes-global-oil-markets ∙ Kpler – $150 scenario under prolonged closure: https://www.kpler.com/blog/hormuz-shock-reprices-crude-but-storage-constraints-force-a-fast-resolution ∙ TheStreet – Bank of America raises CVX target: https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/bank-of-america-resets-chevron-stock-price-target-for-2026 ∙ Al Jazeera – The Strait of Hormuz and oil prices: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/3/shutdown-of-hormuz-strait-raises-fears-of-soaring-oil-prices
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Sharevillen käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Määrä
Osto
-
Myynti
Määrä
-
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - | - |
Ylin
192,4VWAP
Alin
188,12VaihtoMäärä
1 087,3 10 545 440
VWAP
Ylin
192,4Alin
188,12VaihtoMäärä
1 087,3 10 545 440
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 24.4. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 30.1. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 31.10.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 1.8.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 2.5.2025 | ||
2024 Q4 -tulosraportti 31.1.2025 |
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
36 päivää sitten
‧59 min
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 24.4. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 30.1. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 31.10.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 1.8.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 2.5.2025 | ||
2024 Q4 -tulosraportti 31.1.2025 |
1,78 USD/osake
Viimeisin osinko
3,64%Tuotto/v
Shareville
Liity keskusteluun SharevillessäShareville on aktiivisten yksityissijoittajien yhteisö, jossa voit seurata muiden asiakkaiden kaupankäyntiä ja omistuksia.
Kirjaudu
- 7 t sitten7 t sitten🛢️ The Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s “reversal” is political theatre — not a genuine resolution Iran announced on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is, after all, not closed. Many have interpreted this as a de-escalation. It is not. Background: The Revolutionary Guard declared on Monday, 2 March, that the strait was closed and that any vessel attempting to transit would be attacked. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has in practice ground to a halt, and at least eight commercial ships have been attacked in the surrounding waters since then. The attacks — no one is safe: As early as 1 March, UKMTO reported up to five vessels struck: the tanker Skylight was attacked five nautical miles from the Musandam Peninsula in Oman — four crew members were injured and 20 evacuated by the Omani Navy. The crude oil tanker MKD Vyom was hit 50 nautical miles north of Muscat — one crew member perished in the engine room. The product tanker Hercules Star was struck off Mina Saqr. Two further vessels were attacked the same day — one was hit by a projectile 17 nautical miles north-west of Mina Saqr in the UAE; another caught fire after being struck above the waterline 50 nautical miles north of Muscat. The telling detail: Skylight is a curious target for Iran to select — the vessel had previously been sanctioned for assisting dark fleet tankers. This suggests Iran is not operating with any discriminating list of who qualifies as “safe.” Friday’s “reversal”: An Iranian military spokesman now states that the strait is open — but that vessels with ties to the United States or Israel will be denied passage. (Source: Reuters via Dagbladet, 06.03.2026) Why this is meaningless in practice: Argus Media confirms that UKMTO has established that Iranian broadcasts declaring a closure carry no legal force — the strait is international waters and cannot unilaterally be sealed by a coastal state’s decree. Iran has nonetheless succeeded through the sheer terrorisation of the insurance market. As Jakob P. Larsen, Head of Maritime Security at BIMCO, told Fox News: “The Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waters are the most dangerous place right now for commercial shipping.” As former Lieutenant General Arne Bård Dalhaug told Dagbladet on Tuesday: “In practice, Iran only needs to threaten attacks to stop the ships. Insurance premiums will go through the roof.” Market implication: The IEA estimates that an average of 20 million barrels of oil per day transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 — roughly 25 per cent of the world’s seaborne oil trade. Oil prices crossed $90 per barrel on Friday, the highest level since 2023. (Source: NTB/Reuters, 06.03.2026) The underlying risk premium does not vanish on account of a press release from Tehran. Sources: ∙ Dagbladet, 06.03.2026: https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/snur-etter-trussel-om-hormuzstredet/84334638 ∙ Dagbladet, 04.03.2026: https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/helt-naturlig-trekk-fra-iran/84313057 ∙ Maritime Executive, 01.03.2026: https://maritime-executive.com/article/iran-tries-to-intimidate-shipping-with-attacks-in-the-strait-of-hormuz ∙ Ship & Bunker / UKMTO, 01.03.2026: https://shipandbunker.com/news/world/302992-two-more-ships-attacked-in-strait-of-hormuz-ukmto ∙ Argus Media / UKMTO, 05.03.2026: https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2794517-mideast-gulf-ships-receive-hormuz-ban-message-ukmto ∙ Windward Maritime AI Intelligence Daily, 02.03.2026: https://windward.ai/blog/march-2-iran-war-maritime-intelligence-daily/ ∙ Seatrade Maritime, 04.03.2026: https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/containers/container-ship-hit-in-strait-of-hormuz-nearly-150-vessels-trapped·7 t sitten🛢️ Hormuz: Is the US's insurance plan really big enough? The USA is now trying to stabilize shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz with a state insurance framework of 20 billion dollars through US Development Finance Corporation (DFC), combined with possible naval escort for tankers. But the figures raise an interesting question. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase have estimated that full insurance coverage for the ships in the area could require up to 352 billion dollars when including hull damage, oil pollution, salvage, and third-party liability. Compared to this, the DFC scheme only covers a small part of the potential risk. At the same time, there is a practical challenge: The Strait of Hormuz is normally passed by more than 20 large tankers daily. Escorting a significant portion of this traffic through a conflict zone would be a demanding task even for the US Navy. The US administration has therefore signaled that the US Navy may escort tankers through Hormuz if necessary, as part of the plan to keep energy transport running. An analysis mentioned by Morningstar also points to a possible side effect: state guarantees could lead private marine insurance companies to withdraw further from the market. The market therefore still prices significant geopolitical risk. The oil price has already moved above 90 dollars a barrel, and VLCC freight rates have risen sharply in the last week. The question is therefore: Is this enough to get shipping traffic back to normal, or will the risk premium in the energy and shipping market remain high? ⸻ Sources https://www.finansavisen.no/shipping/2026/03/06/8334591/usa-foreslar-forsikringsplan-lover-20-mrdhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-considering-oil-tanker-insurance-support-ease-middle-east-crude-shipments-2026-03-03/https://news.usni.org/2026/03/03/trump-u-s-navy-may-escort-tankers-through-strait-of-hormuz-more-european-warships-en-route-to-medhttps://maritime-executive.com/article/trump-u-s-will-provide-risk-insurance-for-all-shipping-in-the-gulfhttps://www.reinsurancene.ws/us-insurance-proposal-may-not-be-enough-to-restart-shipping-through-the-strait-of-hormuz/https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2794517-mideast-gulf-ships-receive-hormuz-ban-message-ukmto
- 15 t sitten15 t sittenChevron (CVX) – Why UBS’s Price Target of $212 Is Well-Founded Two structural catalysts the consensus is underpricing: the Hormuz crisis and the Venezuela monopoly. The Strait of Hormuz is reshaping the oil price picture Operation Epic Fury (28 Feb.) fundamentally altered market conditions. The Strait of Hormuz – handling roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply and 22% of global LNG trade – is effectively closed to commercial shipping. Insurance premiums have reached six-year highs, QatarEnergy has halted LNG production, and over 150 tankers are anchored outside the strait. Kpler estimates Brent at $85–90 in a middle scenario, with a tail risk of $150 in a prolonged blockade. Bank of America argues the market is systematically underpricing how durable this geopolitical risk premium has become, and recently raised its price target on CVX. UBS ($212) and Citi ($210) are the analysts who most fully price in the new reality – whilst consensus at $174 remains anchored to pre-Hormuz models. Venezuela – a monopoly no competitor can match Chevron is the only American oil major with continuous operations in Venezuela. CEO Mike Wirth confirmed in January that the company can grow production by +50% within 18–24 months, from 250,000 to roughly 375,000 barrels per day. Venezuela passed hydrocarbon law reforms in January easing state control and granting private operators greater autonomy. Bloomberg reports that the country plans to award Chevron additional production blocks. ExxonMobil has refused to re-enter following repeated nationalisations – Chevron therefore holds a genuine monopoly on the Venezuelan upside that is not reflected in consensus estimates. The fundamentals hold Q4 2025: Record production of 4.05 Mbpd (+12% globally, +16% in the US), adjusted EPS of $1.52 beating the $1.44 estimate, operating cash flow of $10.8 billion, and free cash flow growth of +35% year-on-year despite a 15% fall in oil prices. Net debt coverage of 1x. Structural cost savings of $1.5 billion delivered in 2025, with a target of $3–4 billion by 2026. Dividend raised for the 39th consecutive year. Conclusion: Three factors are converging: a geopolitical risk premium in oil prices, a Venezuelan upside not yet priced in by the market, and operational strength that delivers even in a weak pricing environment. UBS at $212 is the analyst target that best reflects the new reality. Not financial advice. Always conduct your own research. Sources: ∙ Chevron Q4 2025 earnings release (30 Jan. 2026): https://www.chevron.com/newsroom/2026/q1/chevron-reports-fourth-quarter-2025-results ∙ CNBC – Chevron CEO on Venezuela: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/30/chevron-ceo-says-venezuela-taking-positive-steps-to-protect-oil-investment.html ∙ Bloomberg – Venezuela to grant new production blocks to Chevron: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-12/venezuela-to-grant-more-oil-drilling-blocks-to-chevron-repsol ∙ Kpler – Hormuz crisis market implications: https://www.kpler.com/blog/us-iran-conflict-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-reshapes-global-oil-markets ∙ Kpler – $150 scenario under prolonged closure: https://www.kpler.com/blog/hormuz-shock-reprices-crude-but-storage-constraints-force-a-fast-resolution ∙ TheStreet – Bank of America raises CVX target: https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/bank-of-america-resets-chevron-stock-price-target-for-2026 ∙ Al Jazeera – The Strait of Hormuz and oil prices: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/3/shutdown-of-hormuz-strait-raises-fears-of-soaring-oil-prices
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