Tunnusluvut
Riskitaso
?
Keskimääräinen: 5 / 7
Huomioi, että vaikka osakerahastoihin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Tunnusluvut
- Juoksevat kulut2,06%
- OmaisuusluokkaOsake
- KategoriaSektori energia osakkeet
- PerusvaluuttaUSD
- Lainoitusaste80%
- Avaintietoasiakirja
Tietoa rahastosta
MST World Energy-rahasto pyrkii US-dollarimääräiseen arvonnousuun sijoittamalla maailmanlaajuisesti listattuihin yrityksiin, joiden liikevaihdosta merkittävä osuus koostuu energian tutkimuksesta, kehittämisestä, tuotannosta tai jakelusta. Rahasto sijoittaa myös yrityksiin, jotka pyrkivät kehittämään uusia teknologioita energian tuottamisessa tai etsimään vaihtoehtoisia energiamuotoja.
Vastaavan tyyppisiä rahastoja
Omistukset
Päivitetty 30.6.2026
Jakauma
- Osakkeet98,8%
- Lyhyt korko1,2%
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
29.7.The War Has Reached Egypt: The Energy Conflict Widens The war has now reached Egypt. A drone attack on a US owned floating LNG storage facility off Damietta on Egypt's Mediterranean coast shows that the conflict in the Middle East continues to expand geographically. According to Reuters and maritime security firm Ambrey, the floating storage vessel Energos Winter was struck by at least one drone during cargo discharge operations, with the resulting fire spreading to a second vessel, Gaslog Salem. The crew was evacuated and the fire brought under control, and the vessels were moved outside the port area. No group has claimed responsibility, and Egyptian authorities have so far stopped short of formally describing the incident as an attack while the investigation continues. This comes as the United States and Saudi Arabia have carried out joint strikes against Iran backed groups in Iraq, while tension around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea remains elevated. For energy markets this matters. Egypt is a central hub for LNG exports to Europe, with the Idku and Damietta terminals both feeding European supply. As energy infrastructure is hit across an increasing number of countries, the risk of new disruptions to oil and gas supply grows. That can help keep the geopolitical risk premium in the energy market elevated for longer. The conflict now touches or affects energy infrastructure in Iran, Israel, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Yemen and now Egypt. It illustrates how quickly a regional conflict can spread across several of the world's most important energy producing and transit regions. How do you see this affecting European gas supply and pricing going into autumn, and is the market still underpricing this risk? Sources: Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-saudis-attack-iran-backed-groups-iraq-threatening-intensify-conflict-2026-07-29/ VG: https://www.vg.no/nyheter/i/M79p4E/droneangrep-mot-amerikansk-gasslager-utenfor-egyptisk-havn29.7.Why Is LNG Infrastructure Being Targeted? Possible Motives and Market Implications The drone attack on a US-owned floating LNG facility near Damietta, Egypt, introduces a new layer of geopolitical risk for global energy markets. The identity of the attackers remains unconfirmed, and there is currently no evidence that the primary objective was to halt LNG exports to Europe. However, the incident raises important questions about the strategic motives behind attacks on critical energy infrastructure. Potential motives could include increasing economic pressure on European countries supporting the US or Israel, driving higher energy prices by creating additional uncertainty in global supply chains, weakening Western energy security by targeting critical export facilities and transport routes, and demonstrating that the conflict can impact global energy flows far beyond the immediate battlefield. Although the intentions behind this specific attack remain unclear, the market consequences are significant. Any threat to LNG terminals, export infrastructure, or major shipping routes increases uncertainty around future energy supplies. This typically results in a higher geopolitical risk premium being priced into both natural gas and crude oil markets. The attack comes as tensions continue to escalate across the Middle East, with energy infrastructure and strategic transport corridors already affected or threatened in Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Qatar, and now Egypt. For energy investors, the key takeaway is that geopolitical risk remains a major driver of oil and gas prices. Even without a direct disruption of supply, repeated attacks on critical infrastructure can tighten risk perceptions, increase volatility, and support higher energy market premiums. Sources: Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/drone-hits-gas-storage-tanker-egypts-mediterranean-port-2026-07-29/ Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-saudis-attack-iran-backed-groups-iraq-threatening-intensify-conflict-2026-07-29/ VG: https://www.vg.no/nyheter/i/M79p4E/droneangrep-mot-amerikansk-gasslager-utenfor-egyptisk-havn- 29.7.Multiple wars are increasing pressure on global oil markets: Emergency reserves are being drained while BGF World Energy A2 benefits from geopolitical risk The oil market is now pricing in more than just the tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Several overlapping conflicts are affecting global energy security, and the combination of geopolitical instability, low inventories and the risk of supply disruptions is keeping a significant risk premium embedded in oil prices. For investors in the energy sector, including BGF World Energy A2, the key question is how long this risk premium can remain elevated and whether higher oil and gas prices will translate into stronger profitability for the companies held by the fund. The most important factor remains the confrontation involving Iran, the United States and their allies. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, with a significant share of global oil supplies normally passing through the area. A prolonged disruption would create a major supply shock. Although the market has not experienced a complete and sustained shutdown of the strait, investors continue to price in the possibility of further escalation. A second risk comes from attacks and threats against energy infrastructure in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia remains the world’s largest oil exporter, meaning any disruption to Saudi production capacity can have an outsized impact on global markets. Previous attacks on Saudi oil facilities have demonstrated how quickly supply expectations can change when critical infrastructure is targeted. Continued instability in the region therefore supports a higher geopolitical premium in oil prices. A third risk factor is the situation around the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb strait. This route is strategically important for global energy transportation, and increased military activity involving the Houthi movement in Yemen has forced shipping companies to reassess risks and security measures. When both Hormuz and alternative transportation routes face uncertainty, concerns about global supply chains increase. The fourth major factor is the Russia-Ukraine war and its impact on refining capacity. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have reduced parts of Russia’s refining capability, while Russia continues to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Although Russian crude exports have largely continued, reduced refining capacity can affect global markets for refined products such as diesel and gasoline. At the same time, oil inventories have become an increasingly important factor. US crude inventories are currently at historically low levels, making the market more vulnerable to new disruptions. Low inventories do not mean the world is running out of oil, but they reduce the buffer available when unexpected supply problems occur. Strategic oil reserves have also been used in recent years to limit price shocks, leaving less emergency capacity available if a larger crisis develops. For BGF World Energy A2, a tighter oil market and elevated geopolitical risk could provide support through higher commodity prices and stronger cash flows for energy companies. However, the fund is not a direct investment in the oil price itself. Returns depend on the companies held in the portfolio, their production levels, costs, balance sheets, dividend policies and how investors value the energy sector. The main risk for energy investors is that a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East, increased production from major producers or weaker global demand could quickly reduce the geopolitical premium currently supporting oil prices. The key question heading into the end of the year is whether global energy markets will move back toward normalisation, or whether multiple simultaneous conflicts will continue to keep oil prices elevated. Sources: https://e24.no/energi-og-klima/i/oE17VK/historisk-lave-oljelagre-i-usa-har-falt-dramatiskhttps://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=Whttps://e24.no/internasjonal-oekonomi/i/e7GeGK/imf-slaar-alarm-om-enorm-energikrisehttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-rebound-by-more-than-2-barrel-prospect-tightening-us-crude-supplies-2026-07-29/https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/ships-transiting-via-bab-el-mandeb-strait-highest-week-data-shows-2026-07-29/https://kyivindependent.com/russias-largest-oil-refinery-in-flames-as-ukraine-strikes-omsk-2-500-km-away-from-border/https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2026/06/russia-new-refinery-strike
·23.7.Does this one just follow the oil market? And is it then only interesting if one expects higher oil prices in the future?- 31.3.USA withdraws – but Hormuz remains closed: The most bullish scenario for energy markets Whilst the media focuses on the end of the war as the catalyst for oil prices, it is paradoxically the opposite that may prove most bullish for energy equities in the medium term: the United States concluding active operations without Hormuz reopening. Why this scenario is different In an active war scenario, markets always carry an embedded ceasefire premium. Every diplomatic headline – even unconfirmed negotiation signals – sends oil lower. We saw this on 25th March when Brent fell 2.2% on a single Trump statement about possible talks, despite Iran immediately rejecting this. Markets trade on perceived probability of resolution, not actual resolution. Should the United States withdraw without Hormuz reopening, this daily ceasefire risk disappears. There is no longer a negotiating party with sufficient leverage to compel Iran. Markets must then begin pricing in structural supply scarcity – and that is a fundamentally different and more durable oil price than a geopolitical risk premium. The physical realities are already severe Brent has surged approximately 55% in March 2026 – a record for the contract since its inception in 1988, according to CNBC. What makes this scenario particularly potent, however, is that disruptions now extend well beyond crude oil. Shell Chief Executive Wael Sawan warned at CERAWeek in Houston that disruptions which began in South Asia have now “moved to Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and then more so into Europe.” LNG, refined products and fertilisers are affected simultaneously – this is no longer merely an oil shock, but a broad commodity shock with inflationary reach. Alternative pipeline routes can only handle a fraction of normal volumes, whilst rerouting tankers around the Cape of Good Hope adds 10–14 days to each delivery, effectively withdrawing capacity from the market. Iran’s logic supports the scenario Without military pressure, Iran has no immediate reason to reopen Hormuz. The strait is their most powerful strategic instrument – but the card’s value presupposes a counterparty to pressure. Without an active military adversary, there is equally no one with whom to negotiate. The result may be a closed strait indefinitely, without war and without peace. What this means for BGF World Energy A2 The fund’s core holdings – Shell, TotalEnergies, Chevron and ExxonMobil – are all integrated energy companies with significant upstream exposure. With sustained $100+ oil and without daily ceasefire noise, earnings visibility for these companies improves markedly. ExxonMobil’s Chief Economist Tyler Goodspeed stated on CNBC that there are “many more probable scenarios in which the strait remains effectively closed harder for longer” than ones in which normal traffic resumes – and Goodspeed was speaking from within one of the fund’s core holdings. The real risk is not peace – it is that $110 oil over time breaks global growth and dampens industrial demand. However, in a scenario where the United States withdraws and Hormuz remains closed, this demand destruction will take time to materialise, whilst the supply scarcity is immediate. What are you watching going forward? Would a US withdrawal without Hormuz reopening change your energy exposure – or is this precisely the scenario you are positioning for? Disclaimer: This is my personal analysis and does not constitute financial advice. Investment in funds carries risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Sources: ∙ CNBC – Oil prices: Analysts raise the alarm as crude soars over Iran war: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/09/oil-prices-iran-war-middle-east-us-israel-strait-of-hormuz.html ∙ CNBC – Brent heads for record monthly gain on Iran war: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/30/oil-price-today-wti-brent-yemen-houthis-israel-iran-war.html ∙ CNBC – Iran war-hit oil prices will soon rise if Hormuz stays shut: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/28/oil-gas-prices-iran-war-hormuz.html ∙ CNBC – Oil price falls as Trump signals Iran talks: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/oil-price-wti-brent-gas-lng-trump-iran-talks-hormuz.html ∙ EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook – Oil Shock Lifts Price Forecast: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Shock-Lifts-EIA-Price-Outlook-as-Hormuz-Crisis-Reshapes-Forecast.html ∙ StoneX – Crude Oil Q2 2026 Outlook: https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/crude-oil-q2-2026-outlook-hormuz-risks-dominate-wti-price-forecasts-2026-03-30/
I know little about this topic. But it is said that 17 % of Qatar gas is down, and it will take at least 3 years to build it up again. Won't gas then be a good investment? And according to what Gemini (unfortunately can't avoid it) says, there is some gas in this fund. I think it could be a time deal. I would be very grateful if someone has any views, other perspectives🙂👍 - 30.3.$150 Per Barrel: Société Générale Raises the Stakes — BGF World Energy A2 in Focus Société Générale now sees increasing probability of Brent crude reaching $150 per barrel, with the bank projecting an average of $125/bbl for April alone, according to Bloomberg. This morning, Brent for front-month delivery is trading at $115.2/bbl — a level that would have seemed extraordinary just three months ago. The backdrop is well known, but the numbers are sharpening. Standard Chartered estimates the Iran conflict has removed 7.4–8.2 million barrels per day from global supply — with Iraq down 2.9 mb/d, Saudi Arabia 2.0–2.5 mb/d, and meaningful losses from the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar. Critically, all exports that can bypass the Strait of Hormuz have already been rerouted. There is no remaining buffer. Barclays has flagged $150 as a plausible near-term ceiling, and Wood Mackenzie has gone further still, noting that $200/bbl is not outside the realms of possibility in 2026. The EIA’s base case — Brent averaging $91/bbl in Q2 2026, easing as Hormuz flows normalise — represents the soft-landing scenario. But with Iran showing no sign of backing down and Gulf infrastructure continuing to absorb damage, the probability-weighted upside is moving in one direction. For BGF World Energy A2, the implications are direct. Shell, TotalEnergies, Chevron and ExxonMobil — the fund’s core holdings — are generating extraordinary free cash flow at current prices. Every $10 increase in the oil price flows straight to the bottom line of integrated majors. At $125–150/bbl, we are looking at earnings levels not seen since the post-COVID supercycle, compounded by a supply shock far more structural than anything witnessed in 2021–2022. The risk to this thesis is diplomatic resolution. Oil dipped last week on reports of a US diplomatic push toward Iran. Any credible ceasefire or Hormuz reopening agreement would likely send prices sharply lower. That is the key variable to monitor. What do you believe is the most likely oil price range by end of Q2 2026 — below $90, $90–120, or above $120? This post is for informational and analytical purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investments in funds involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Sources: ∙ Bloomberg / Société Générale forecast: https://www.bloomberg.com/energy ∙ OilPrice.com — Banks Hike Oil Price Forecasts, Some See $150 Crude: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Banks-Hike-Oil-Price-Forecasts-and-Some-See-150-Crude.html ∙ TheStreet — Goldman Sachs Resets 2026 Forecast Amid Hormuz Disruption: https://www.thestreet.com/investing/goldman-sachs-resets-oil-price-target-for-rest-of-2026 ∙ Standard Chartered via OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Standard-Chartered-Predicts-Oil-Prices-Will-Remain-Higher-For-Longer.html ∙ EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2026: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf
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Tunnusluvut
Riskitaso
?
Keskimääräinen: 5 / 7
Huomioi, että vaikka osakerahastoihin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Tunnusluvut
- Juoksevat kulut2,06%
- OmaisuusluokkaOsake
- KategoriaSektori energia osakkeet
- PerusvaluuttaUSD
- Lainoitusaste80%
- Avaintietoasiakirja
Tietoa rahastosta
MST World Energy-rahasto pyrkii US-dollarimääräiseen arvonnousuun sijoittamalla maailmanlaajuisesti listattuihin yrityksiin, joiden liikevaihdosta merkittävä osuus koostuu energian tutkimuksesta, kehittämisestä, tuotannosta tai jakelusta. Rahasto sijoittaa myös yrityksiin, jotka pyrkivät kehittämään uusia teknologioita energian tuottamisessa tai etsimään vaihtoehtoisia energiamuotoja.
Vastaavan tyyppisiä rahastoja
Uutiset
Ei uutisia tällä hetkellä
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Omistukset
Päivitetty 30.6.2026
Jakauma
- Osakkeet98,8%
- Lyhyt korko1,2%
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
- 29.7.The War Has Reached Egypt: The Energy Conflict Widens The war has now reached Egypt. A drone attack on a US owned floating LNG storage facility off Damietta on Egypt's Mediterranean coast shows that the conflict in the Middle East continues to expand geographically. According to Reuters and maritime security firm Ambrey, the floating storage vessel Energos Winter was struck by at least one drone during cargo discharge operations, with the resulting fire spreading to a second vessel, Gaslog Salem. The crew was evacuated and the fire brought under control, and the vessels were moved outside the port area. No group has claimed responsibility, and Egyptian authorities have so far stopped short of formally describing the incident as an attack while the investigation continues. This comes as the United States and Saudi Arabia have carried out joint strikes against Iran backed groups in Iraq, while tension around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea remains elevated. For energy markets this matters. Egypt is a central hub for LNG exports to Europe, with the Idku and Damietta terminals both feeding European supply. As energy infrastructure is hit across an increasing number of countries, the risk of new disruptions to oil and gas supply grows. That can help keep the geopolitical risk premium in the energy market elevated for longer. The conflict now touches or affects energy infrastructure in Iran, Israel, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Yemen and now Egypt. It illustrates how quickly a regional conflict can spread across several of the world's most important energy producing and transit regions. How do you see this affecting European gas supply and pricing going into autumn, and is the market still underpricing this risk? Sources: Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-saudis-attack-iran-backed-groups-iraq-threatening-intensify-conflict-2026-07-29/ VG: https://www.vg.no/nyheter/i/M79p4E/droneangrep-mot-amerikansk-gasslager-utenfor-egyptisk-havn29.7.Why Is LNG Infrastructure Being Targeted? Possible Motives and Market Implications The drone attack on a US-owned floating LNG facility near Damietta, Egypt, introduces a new layer of geopolitical risk for global energy markets. The identity of the attackers remains unconfirmed, and there is currently no evidence that the primary objective was to halt LNG exports to Europe. However, the incident raises important questions about the strategic motives behind attacks on critical energy infrastructure. Potential motives could include increasing economic pressure on European countries supporting the US or Israel, driving higher energy prices by creating additional uncertainty in global supply chains, weakening Western energy security by targeting critical export facilities and transport routes, and demonstrating that the conflict can impact global energy flows far beyond the immediate battlefield. Although the intentions behind this specific attack remain unclear, the market consequences are significant. Any threat to LNG terminals, export infrastructure, or major shipping routes increases uncertainty around future energy supplies. This typically results in a higher geopolitical risk premium being priced into both natural gas and crude oil markets. The attack comes as tensions continue to escalate across the Middle East, with energy infrastructure and strategic transport corridors already affected or threatened in Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Qatar, and now Egypt. For energy investors, the key takeaway is that geopolitical risk remains a major driver of oil and gas prices. Even without a direct disruption of supply, repeated attacks on critical infrastructure can tighten risk perceptions, increase volatility, and support higher energy market premiums. Sources: Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/drone-hits-gas-storage-tanker-egypts-mediterranean-port-2026-07-29/ Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-saudis-attack-iran-backed-groups-iraq-threatening-intensify-conflict-2026-07-29/ VG: https://www.vg.no/nyheter/i/M79p4E/droneangrep-mot-amerikansk-gasslager-utenfor-egyptisk-havn
- 29.7.Multiple wars are increasing pressure on global oil markets: Emergency reserves are being drained while BGF World Energy A2 benefits from geopolitical risk The oil market is now pricing in more than just the tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Several overlapping conflicts are affecting global energy security, and the combination of geopolitical instability, low inventories and the risk of supply disruptions is keeping a significant risk premium embedded in oil prices. For investors in the energy sector, including BGF World Energy A2, the key question is how long this risk premium can remain elevated and whether higher oil and gas prices will translate into stronger profitability for the companies held by the fund. The most important factor remains the confrontation involving Iran, the United States and their allies. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, with a significant share of global oil supplies normally passing through the area. A prolonged disruption would create a major supply shock. Although the market has not experienced a complete and sustained shutdown of the strait, investors continue to price in the possibility of further escalation. A second risk comes from attacks and threats against energy infrastructure in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia remains the world’s largest oil exporter, meaning any disruption to Saudi production capacity can have an outsized impact on global markets. Previous attacks on Saudi oil facilities have demonstrated how quickly supply expectations can change when critical infrastructure is targeted. Continued instability in the region therefore supports a higher geopolitical premium in oil prices. A third risk factor is the situation around the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb strait. This route is strategically important for global energy transportation, and increased military activity involving the Houthi movement in Yemen has forced shipping companies to reassess risks and security measures. When both Hormuz and alternative transportation routes face uncertainty, concerns about global supply chains increase. The fourth major factor is the Russia-Ukraine war and its impact on refining capacity. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have reduced parts of Russia’s refining capability, while Russia continues to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Although Russian crude exports have largely continued, reduced refining capacity can affect global markets for refined products such as diesel and gasoline. At the same time, oil inventories have become an increasingly important factor. US crude inventories are currently at historically low levels, making the market more vulnerable to new disruptions. Low inventories do not mean the world is running out of oil, but they reduce the buffer available when unexpected supply problems occur. Strategic oil reserves have also been used in recent years to limit price shocks, leaving less emergency capacity available if a larger crisis develops. For BGF World Energy A2, a tighter oil market and elevated geopolitical risk could provide support through higher commodity prices and stronger cash flows for energy companies. However, the fund is not a direct investment in the oil price itself. Returns depend on the companies held in the portfolio, their production levels, costs, balance sheets, dividend policies and how investors value the energy sector. The main risk for energy investors is that a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East, increased production from major producers or weaker global demand could quickly reduce the geopolitical premium currently supporting oil prices. The key question heading into the end of the year is whether global energy markets will move back toward normalisation, or whether multiple simultaneous conflicts will continue to keep oil prices elevated. Sources: https://e24.no/energi-og-klima/i/oE17VK/historisk-lave-oljelagre-i-usa-har-falt-dramatiskhttps://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=Whttps://e24.no/internasjonal-oekonomi/i/e7GeGK/imf-slaar-alarm-om-enorm-energikrisehttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-rebound-by-more-than-2-barrel-prospect-tightening-us-crude-supplies-2026-07-29/https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/ships-transiting-via-bab-el-mandeb-strait-highest-week-data-shows-2026-07-29/https://kyivindependent.com/russias-largest-oil-refinery-in-flames-as-ukraine-strikes-omsk-2-500-km-away-from-border/https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2026/06/russia-new-refinery-strike
- ·23.7.Does this one just follow the oil market? And is it then only interesting if one expects higher oil prices in the future?
- 31.3.USA withdraws – but Hormuz remains closed: The most bullish scenario for energy markets Whilst the media focuses on the end of the war as the catalyst for oil prices, it is paradoxically the opposite that may prove most bullish for energy equities in the medium term: the United States concluding active operations without Hormuz reopening. Why this scenario is different In an active war scenario, markets always carry an embedded ceasefire premium. Every diplomatic headline – even unconfirmed negotiation signals – sends oil lower. We saw this on 25th March when Brent fell 2.2% on a single Trump statement about possible talks, despite Iran immediately rejecting this. Markets trade on perceived probability of resolution, not actual resolution. Should the United States withdraw without Hormuz reopening, this daily ceasefire risk disappears. There is no longer a negotiating party with sufficient leverage to compel Iran. Markets must then begin pricing in structural supply scarcity – and that is a fundamentally different and more durable oil price than a geopolitical risk premium. The physical realities are already severe Brent has surged approximately 55% in March 2026 – a record for the contract since its inception in 1988, according to CNBC. What makes this scenario particularly potent, however, is that disruptions now extend well beyond crude oil. Shell Chief Executive Wael Sawan warned at CERAWeek in Houston that disruptions which began in South Asia have now “moved to Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and then more so into Europe.” LNG, refined products and fertilisers are affected simultaneously – this is no longer merely an oil shock, but a broad commodity shock with inflationary reach. Alternative pipeline routes can only handle a fraction of normal volumes, whilst rerouting tankers around the Cape of Good Hope adds 10–14 days to each delivery, effectively withdrawing capacity from the market. Iran’s logic supports the scenario Without military pressure, Iran has no immediate reason to reopen Hormuz. The strait is their most powerful strategic instrument – but the card’s value presupposes a counterparty to pressure. Without an active military adversary, there is equally no one with whom to negotiate. The result may be a closed strait indefinitely, without war and without peace. What this means for BGF World Energy A2 The fund’s core holdings – Shell, TotalEnergies, Chevron and ExxonMobil – are all integrated energy companies with significant upstream exposure. With sustained $100+ oil and without daily ceasefire noise, earnings visibility for these companies improves markedly. ExxonMobil’s Chief Economist Tyler Goodspeed stated on CNBC that there are “many more probable scenarios in which the strait remains effectively closed harder for longer” than ones in which normal traffic resumes – and Goodspeed was speaking from within one of the fund’s core holdings. The real risk is not peace – it is that $110 oil over time breaks global growth and dampens industrial demand. However, in a scenario where the United States withdraws and Hormuz remains closed, this demand destruction will take time to materialise, whilst the supply scarcity is immediate. What are you watching going forward? Would a US withdrawal without Hormuz reopening change your energy exposure – or is this precisely the scenario you are positioning for? Disclaimer: This is my personal analysis and does not constitute financial advice. Investment in funds carries risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Sources: ∙ CNBC – Oil prices: Analysts raise the alarm as crude soars over Iran war: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/09/oil-prices-iran-war-middle-east-us-israel-strait-of-hormuz.html ∙ CNBC – Brent heads for record monthly gain on Iran war: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/30/oil-price-today-wti-brent-yemen-houthis-israel-iran-war.html ∙ CNBC – Iran war-hit oil prices will soon rise if Hormuz stays shut: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/28/oil-gas-prices-iran-war-hormuz.html ∙ CNBC – Oil price falls as Trump signals Iran talks: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/oil-price-wti-brent-gas-lng-trump-iran-talks-hormuz.html ∙ EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook – Oil Shock Lifts Price Forecast: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Shock-Lifts-EIA-Price-Outlook-as-Hormuz-Crisis-Reshapes-Forecast.html ∙ StoneX – Crude Oil Q2 2026 Outlook: https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/crude-oil-q2-2026-outlook-hormuz-risks-dominate-wti-price-forecasts-2026-03-30/I know little about this topic. But it is said that 17 % of Qatar gas is down, and it will take at least 3 years to build it up again. Won't gas then be a good investment? And according to what Gemini (unfortunately can't avoid it) says, there is some gas in this fund. I think it could be a time deal. I would be very grateful if someone has any views, other perspectives🙂👍
- 30.3.$150 Per Barrel: Société Générale Raises the Stakes — BGF World Energy A2 in Focus Société Générale now sees increasing probability of Brent crude reaching $150 per barrel, with the bank projecting an average of $125/bbl for April alone, according to Bloomberg. This morning, Brent for front-month delivery is trading at $115.2/bbl — a level that would have seemed extraordinary just three months ago. The backdrop is well known, but the numbers are sharpening. Standard Chartered estimates the Iran conflict has removed 7.4–8.2 million barrels per day from global supply — with Iraq down 2.9 mb/d, Saudi Arabia 2.0–2.5 mb/d, and meaningful losses from the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar. Critically, all exports that can bypass the Strait of Hormuz have already been rerouted. There is no remaining buffer. Barclays has flagged $150 as a plausible near-term ceiling, and Wood Mackenzie has gone further still, noting that $200/bbl is not outside the realms of possibility in 2026. The EIA’s base case — Brent averaging $91/bbl in Q2 2026, easing as Hormuz flows normalise — represents the soft-landing scenario. But with Iran showing no sign of backing down and Gulf infrastructure continuing to absorb damage, the probability-weighted upside is moving in one direction. For BGF World Energy A2, the implications are direct. Shell, TotalEnergies, Chevron and ExxonMobil — the fund’s core holdings — are generating extraordinary free cash flow at current prices. Every $10 increase in the oil price flows straight to the bottom line of integrated majors. At $125–150/bbl, we are looking at earnings levels not seen since the post-COVID supercycle, compounded by a supply shock far more structural than anything witnessed in 2021–2022. The risk to this thesis is diplomatic resolution. Oil dipped last week on reports of a US diplomatic push toward Iran. Any credible ceasefire or Hormuz reopening agreement would likely send prices sharply lower. That is the key variable to monitor. What do you believe is the most likely oil price range by end of Q2 2026 — below $90, $90–120, or above $120? This post is for informational and analytical purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investments in funds involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Sources: ∙ Bloomberg / Société Générale forecast: https://www.bloomberg.com/energy ∙ OilPrice.com — Banks Hike Oil Price Forecasts, Some See $150 Crude: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Banks-Hike-Oil-Price-Forecasts-and-Some-See-150-Crude.html ∙ TheStreet — Goldman Sachs Resets 2026 Forecast Amid Hormuz Disruption: https://www.thestreet.com/investing/goldman-sachs-resets-oil-price-target-for-rest-of-2026 ∙ Standard Chartered via OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Standard-Chartered-Predicts-Oil-Prices-Will-Remain-Higher-For-Longer.html ∙ EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2026: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf
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- 29.7.The War Has Reached Egypt: The Energy Conflict Widens The war has now reached Egypt. A drone attack on a US owned floating LNG storage facility off Damietta on Egypt's Mediterranean coast shows that the conflict in the Middle East continues to expand geographically. According to Reuters and maritime security firm Ambrey, the floating storage vessel Energos Winter was struck by at least one drone during cargo discharge operations, with the resulting fire spreading to a second vessel, Gaslog Salem. The crew was evacuated and the fire brought under control, and the vessels were moved outside the port area. No group has claimed responsibility, and Egyptian authorities have so far stopped short of formally describing the incident as an attack while the investigation continues. This comes as the United States and Saudi Arabia have carried out joint strikes against Iran backed groups in Iraq, while tension around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea remains elevated. For energy markets this matters. Egypt is a central hub for LNG exports to Europe, with the Idku and Damietta terminals both feeding European supply. As energy infrastructure is hit across an increasing number of countries, the risk of new disruptions to oil and gas supply grows. That can help keep the geopolitical risk premium in the energy market elevated for longer. The conflict now touches or affects energy infrastructure in Iran, Israel, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Yemen and now Egypt. It illustrates how quickly a regional conflict can spread across several of the world's most important energy producing and transit regions. How do you see this affecting European gas supply and pricing going into autumn, and is the market still underpricing this risk? Sources: Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-saudis-attack-iran-backed-groups-iraq-threatening-intensify-conflict-2026-07-29/ VG: https://www.vg.no/nyheter/i/M79p4E/droneangrep-mot-amerikansk-gasslager-utenfor-egyptisk-havn29.7.Why Is LNG Infrastructure Being Targeted? Possible Motives and Market Implications The drone attack on a US-owned floating LNG facility near Damietta, Egypt, introduces a new layer of geopolitical risk for global energy markets. The identity of the attackers remains unconfirmed, and there is currently no evidence that the primary objective was to halt LNG exports to Europe. However, the incident raises important questions about the strategic motives behind attacks on critical energy infrastructure. Potential motives could include increasing economic pressure on European countries supporting the US or Israel, driving higher energy prices by creating additional uncertainty in global supply chains, weakening Western energy security by targeting critical export facilities and transport routes, and demonstrating that the conflict can impact global energy flows far beyond the immediate battlefield. Although the intentions behind this specific attack remain unclear, the market consequences are significant. Any threat to LNG terminals, export infrastructure, or major shipping routes increases uncertainty around future energy supplies. This typically results in a higher geopolitical risk premium being priced into both natural gas and crude oil markets. The attack comes as tensions continue to escalate across the Middle East, with energy infrastructure and strategic transport corridors already affected or threatened in Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Qatar, and now Egypt. For energy investors, the key takeaway is that geopolitical risk remains a major driver of oil and gas prices. Even without a direct disruption of supply, repeated attacks on critical infrastructure can tighten risk perceptions, increase volatility, and support higher energy market premiums. Sources: Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/drone-hits-gas-storage-tanker-egypts-mediterranean-port-2026-07-29/ Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-saudis-attack-iran-backed-groups-iraq-threatening-intensify-conflict-2026-07-29/ VG: https://www.vg.no/nyheter/i/M79p4E/droneangrep-mot-amerikansk-gasslager-utenfor-egyptisk-havn
- 29.7.Multiple wars are increasing pressure on global oil markets: Emergency reserves are being drained while BGF World Energy A2 benefits from geopolitical risk The oil market is now pricing in more than just the tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Several overlapping conflicts are affecting global energy security, and the combination of geopolitical instability, low inventories and the risk of supply disruptions is keeping a significant risk premium embedded in oil prices. For investors in the energy sector, including BGF World Energy A2, the key question is how long this risk premium can remain elevated and whether higher oil and gas prices will translate into stronger profitability for the companies held by the fund. The most important factor remains the confrontation involving Iran, the United States and their allies. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, with a significant share of global oil supplies normally passing through the area. A prolonged disruption would create a major supply shock. Although the market has not experienced a complete and sustained shutdown of the strait, investors continue to price in the possibility of further escalation. A second risk comes from attacks and threats against energy infrastructure in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia remains the world’s largest oil exporter, meaning any disruption to Saudi production capacity can have an outsized impact on global markets. Previous attacks on Saudi oil facilities have demonstrated how quickly supply expectations can change when critical infrastructure is targeted. Continued instability in the region therefore supports a higher geopolitical premium in oil prices. A third risk factor is the situation around the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb strait. This route is strategically important for global energy transportation, and increased military activity involving the Houthi movement in Yemen has forced shipping companies to reassess risks and security measures. When both Hormuz and alternative transportation routes face uncertainty, concerns about global supply chains increase. The fourth major factor is the Russia-Ukraine war and its impact on refining capacity. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have reduced parts of Russia’s refining capability, while Russia continues to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Although Russian crude exports have largely continued, reduced refining capacity can affect global markets for refined products such as diesel and gasoline. At the same time, oil inventories have become an increasingly important factor. US crude inventories are currently at historically low levels, making the market more vulnerable to new disruptions. Low inventories do not mean the world is running out of oil, but they reduce the buffer available when unexpected supply problems occur. Strategic oil reserves have also been used in recent years to limit price shocks, leaving less emergency capacity available if a larger crisis develops. For BGF World Energy A2, a tighter oil market and elevated geopolitical risk could provide support through higher commodity prices and stronger cash flows for energy companies. However, the fund is not a direct investment in the oil price itself. Returns depend on the companies held in the portfolio, their production levels, costs, balance sheets, dividend policies and how investors value the energy sector. The main risk for energy investors is that a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East, increased production from major producers or weaker global demand could quickly reduce the geopolitical premium currently supporting oil prices. The key question heading into the end of the year is whether global energy markets will move back toward normalisation, or whether multiple simultaneous conflicts will continue to keep oil prices elevated. Sources: https://e24.no/energi-og-klima/i/oE17VK/historisk-lave-oljelagre-i-usa-har-falt-dramatiskhttps://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=Whttps://e24.no/internasjonal-oekonomi/i/e7GeGK/imf-slaar-alarm-om-enorm-energikrisehttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-rebound-by-more-than-2-barrel-prospect-tightening-us-crude-supplies-2026-07-29/https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/ships-transiting-via-bab-el-mandeb-strait-highest-week-data-shows-2026-07-29/https://kyivindependent.com/russias-largest-oil-refinery-in-flames-as-ukraine-strikes-omsk-2-500-km-away-from-border/https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2026/06/russia-new-refinery-strike
- ·23.7.Does this one just follow the oil market? And is it then only interesting if one expects higher oil prices in the future?
- 31.3.USA withdraws – but Hormuz remains closed: The most bullish scenario for energy markets Whilst the media focuses on the end of the war as the catalyst for oil prices, it is paradoxically the opposite that may prove most bullish for energy equities in the medium term: the United States concluding active operations without Hormuz reopening. Why this scenario is different In an active war scenario, markets always carry an embedded ceasefire premium. Every diplomatic headline – even unconfirmed negotiation signals – sends oil lower. We saw this on 25th March when Brent fell 2.2% on a single Trump statement about possible talks, despite Iran immediately rejecting this. Markets trade on perceived probability of resolution, not actual resolution. Should the United States withdraw without Hormuz reopening, this daily ceasefire risk disappears. There is no longer a negotiating party with sufficient leverage to compel Iran. Markets must then begin pricing in structural supply scarcity – and that is a fundamentally different and more durable oil price than a geopolitical risk premium. The physical realities are already severe Brent has surged approximately 55% in March 2026 – a record for the contract since its inception in 1988, according to CNBC. What makes this scenario particularly potent, however, is that disruptions now extend well beyond crude oil. Shell Chief Executive Wael Sawan warned at CERAWeek in Houston that disruptions which began in South Asia have now “moved to Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and then more so into Europe.” LNG, refined products and fertilisers are affected simultaneously – this is no longer merely an oil shock, but a broad commodity shock with inflationary reach. Alternative pipeline routes can only handle a fraction of normal volumes, whilst rerouting tankers around the Cape of Good Hope adds 10–14 days to each delivery, effectively withdrawing capacity from the market. Iran’s logic supports the scenario Without military pressure, Iran has no immediate reason to reopen Hormuz. The strait is their most powerful strategic instrument – but the card’s value presupposes a counterparty to pressure. Without an active military adversary, there is equally no one with whom to negotiate. The result may be a closed strait indefinitely, without war and without peace. What this means for BGF World Energy A2 The fund’s core holdings – Shell, TotalEnergies, Chevron and ExxonMobil – are all integrated energy companies with significant upstream exposure. With sustained $100+ oil and without daily ceasefire noise, earnings visibility for these companies improves markedly. ExxonMobil’s Chief Economist Tyler Goodspeed stated on CNBC that there are “many more probable scenarios in which the strait remains effectively closed harder for longer” than ones in which normal traffic resumes – and Goodspeed was speaking from within one of the fund’s core holdings. The real risk is not peace – it is that $110 oil over time breaks global growth and dampens industrial demand. However, in a scenario where the United States withdraws and Hormuz remains closed, this demand destruction will take time to materialise, whilst the supply scarcity is immediate. What are you watching going forward? Would a US withdrawal without Hormuz reopening change your energy exposure – or is this precisely the scenario you are positioning for? Disclaimer: This is my personal analysis and does not constitute financial advice. Investment in funds carries risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Sources: ∙ CNBC – Oil prices: Analysts raise the alarm as crude soars over Iran war: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/09/oil-prices-iran-war-middle-east-us-israel-strait-of-hormuz.html ∙ CNBC – Brent heads for record monthly gain on Iran war: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/30/oil-price-today-wti-brent-yemen-houthis-israel-iran-war.html ∙ CNBC – Iran war-hit oil prices will soon rise if Hormuz stays shut: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/28/oil-gas-prices-iran-war-hormuz.html ∙ CNBC – Oil price falls as Trump signals Iran talks: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/oil-price-wti-brent-gas-lng-trump-iran-talks-hormuz.html ∙ EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook – Oil Shock Lifts Price Forecast: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Shock-Lifts-EIA-Price-Outlook-as-Hormuz-Crisis-Reshapes-Forecast.html ∙ StoneX – Crude Oil Q2 2026 Outlook: https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/crude-oil-q2-2026-outlook-hormuz-risks-dominate-wti-price-forecasts-2026-03-30/I know little about this topic. But it is said that 17 % of Qatar gas is down, and it will take at least 3 years to build it up again. Won't gas then be a good investment? And according to what Gemini (unfortunately can't avoid it) says, there is some gas in this fund. I think it could be a time deal. I would be very grateful if someone has any views, other perspectives🙂👍
- 30.3.$150 Per Barrel: Société Générale Raises the Stakes — BGF World Energy A2 in Focus Société Générale now sees increasing probability of Brent crude reaching $150 per barrel, with the bank projecting an average of $125/bbl for April alone, according to Bloomberg. This morning, Brent for front-month delivery is trading at $115.2/bbl — a level that would have seemed extraordinary just three months ago. The backdrop is well known, but the numbers are sharpening. Standard Chartered estimates the Iran conflict has removed 7.4–8.2 million barrels per day from global supply — with Iraq down 2.9 mb/d, Saudi Arabia 2.0–2.5 mb/d, and meaningful losses from the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar. Critically, all exports that can bypass the Strait of Hormuz have already been rerouted. There is no remaining buffer. Barclays has flagged $150 as a plausible near-term ceiling, and Wood Mackenzie has gone further still, noting that $200/bbl is not outside the realms of possibility in 2026. The EIA’s base case — Brent averaging $91/bbl in Q2 2026, easing as Hormuz flows normalise — represents the soft-landing scenario. But with Iran showing no sign of backing down and Gulf infrastructure continuing to absorb damage, the probability-weighted upside is moving in one direction. For BGF World Energy A2, the implications are direct. Shell, TotalEnergies, Chevron and ExxonMobil — the fund’s core holdings — are generating extraordinary free cash flow at current prices. Every $10 increase in the oil price flows straight to the bottom line of integrated majors. At $125–150/bbl, we are looking at earnings levels not seen since the post-COVID supercycle, compounded by a supply shock far more structural than anything witnessed in 2021–2022. The risk to this thesis is diplomatic resolution. Oil dipped last week on reports of a US diplomatic push toward Iran. Any credible ceasefire or Hormuz reopening agreement would likely send prices sharply lower. That is the key variable to monitor. What do you believe is the most likely oil price range by end of Q2 2026 — below $90, $90–120, or above $120? This post is for informational and analytical purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investments in funds involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Sources: ∙ Bloomberg / Société Générale forecast: https://www.bloomberg.com/energy ∙ OilPrice.com — Banks Hike Oil Price Forecasts, Some See $150 Crude: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Banks-Hike-Oil-Price-Forecasts-and-Some-See-150-Crude.html ∙ TheStreet — Goldman Sachs Resets 2026 Forecast Amid Hormuz Disruption: https://www.thestreet.com/investing/goldman-sachs-resets-oil-price-target-for-rest-of-2026 ∙ Standard Chartered via OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Standard-Chartered-Predicts-Oil-Prices-Will-Remain-Higher-For-Longer.html ∙ EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2026: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
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