2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
83 päivää sitten
‧35 min
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Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 14.5. | 1 päivä |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 19.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 13.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 13.8.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 15.5.2025 | ||
2024 Q4 -tulosraportti 20.2.2025 |
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
·21.3.Which oil price can the world economy withstand? I have seen professionals say that the world cannot withstand a sustained 80$, and I have seen professionals say that if we adjust for inflation, then 145$ is perfectly fine... I guess the answer lies somewhere in between here (but this is not something I know) In connection with Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine in 2022, we saw elevated oil prices for quite a long period; it looks like Brent >90$ for 9 months of 2022, >105$ for around 4 months and perhaps an average for the year as a whole around 100$? 1) Oxford Economics believes that two months of oil at 140$ - combined with increased interest rates and other challenges - can lead parts of the world economy into a mild recession. They also say that 100$ for two months will only take a few per mille off global GDP (due to increased inflation), and that recession will be averted. ks1977; Just looking at two months is too simple, I think - will we really go back to 60-70$ after the war? The longer the war lasts, the more oil production we lose (the inventories are largely full and several countries have already reduced production), and the higher (and longer) the oil price will be (all else being equal, mind you). I therefore have trouble seeing us going back to 60-70$ after the war (but I can always be wrong), what if, for example, we end up staying at 80-90$? It will take time to get production up in the Middle East again, there will be disruptions, the supply-glut thesis is perhaps over, the world might want to fill up its oil inventories, maybe we'll get a permanent small risk premium on the oil price etc. (although if this resolves nicely, it could also go the other way; more Iranian oil on the seas, reduced risk premium, perhaps also no replenishment of oil inventories etc.) 2) Vanguard cites an analysis where 125$ oil (and 150eur gas) for the year can take 1% off the Eurozone's GDP and into a recession ks1977; Hopefully (...) 125$ as an average for the year is well on the high side. That we "only" lose 1% of GDP (for the Eurozone) at an oil price of 125$ I find encouraging - surely it will take much more than that to destroy Sinokor's market power? 125$ is not worst case, however; if the war drags on (is it 500M barrels oversupply that one believes we will have in total this year? Best case, we lose 25-50M per week now), and/or we see attacks where oil production is permanently taken out, then it can push up the oil price both in the short term and longer term. I also saw some speculate that inflation due to oil price could be met with interest rate CUTS instead of interest rate hikes as one always gets. The reasoning was that increased oil prices will lead to increased prices which reduce everyone's purchasing power and thus reduce consumption. Whether this has any merit or if it's pure wishful thinking, I cannot see. 1) https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/iran-war-scenarios-the-oil-price-that-breaks-parts-of-the-economy/ 2) https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/articles/potential-impact-high-oil-prices-economies.html·22.3.The speculation about interest rate cuts is probably wishful thinking – at least if we consider the Iraq War (1990-1991) where increased oil prices led to increased inflation, which was attempted to be corrected by raising interest rates. Now, there is a difference in how effective raising interest rates is when inflation is due to supply problems (such as after covid) and when it is due to demand, but it's not a given that we address these significantly differently.- ·23.2.A SEISMIC SHIFT That's how OET described what we are witnessing now - while also declaring that the cycle we have been waiting for all these years started in Q4/25 (for crude oil tanker). Too many words to paste in here, but I jotted down a bit more detailed here (with a lot of uncertainty and complete disregard for the risks) https://www.finansavisen.no/forum/thread/174061/et-seismisk-skifte-for-vlcc [I also posted the post on the OSE version in here, but I allow myself to paste it in here too so that it can be a bit more in the spotlight]
- ·17.1.I've harped enough about the background for the upcoming supercycle in tanker (#EEXI/CII), but just to jinx it; it's finally here. First, FRO's achieved VLCC rates 2005-2009 (unfortunately didn't find 2003 and 2004 on their website); 2005 = 57 400 2006 = 57 800 2007 = 45 700 2008 = 74 500 2009 = 38 300 Then estimated spot rate for "modern" vessels (i.e. excl. ECO and scrubber) on TD3C (from FRO's annual reports); 2019 = 39 400 2020 = 48 300 2021 = (- 520) 2022 = 16 900 2023 = 36 000 2024 = 34 900 2025 = 37 600 (my guesstimate) And finally FFA 2026 for TD3C 2026 converted to spot (stolen from a shipping analyst's post on Nordnet under HUNT earlier this week); Q1 = 82k Q2 = 78k Q3= 63k Q4 =74k This would then give an "expected" annual average for 2026 = 74 250 (excl. ECO and scrubber) If FFA is in the right ballpark then we can jinx it and say that the supercycle has started (whether you want to say it started in 2023 or starts this year is up to you) Can recommend listening to FRO's Q3/25 (if nothing else, just Barstad's introduction) and the interview with Barstad on Vonheim if one wants a bit of a "kids in a candy store"-feeling.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
83 päivää sitten
‧35 min
1,55 USD/osake
Viimeisin osinko
5,86%Tuotto/v
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
- ·21.3.Which oil price can the world economy withstand? I have seen professionals say that the world cannot withstand a sustained 80$, and I have seen professionals say that if we adjust for inflation, then 145$ is perfectly fine... I guess the answer lies somewhere in between here (but this is not something I know) In connection with Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine in 2022, we saw elevated oil prices for quite a long period; it looks like Brent >90$ for 9 months of 2022, >105$ for around 4 months and perhaps an average for the year as a whole around 100$? 1) Oxford Economics believes that two months of oil at 140$ - combined with increased interest rates and other challenges - can lead parts of the world economy into a mild recession. They also say that 100$ for two months will only take a few per mille off global GDP (due to increased inflation), and that recession will be averted. ks1977; Just looking at two months is too simple, I think - will we really go back to 60-70$ after the war? The longer the war lasts, the more oil production we lose (the inventories are largely full and several countries have already reduced production), and the higher (and longer) the oil price will be (all else being equal, mind you). I therefore have trouble seeing us going back to 60-70$ after the war (but I can always be wrong), what if, for example, we end up staying at 80-90$? It will take time to get production up in the Middle East again, there will be disruptions, the supply-glut thesis is perhaps over, the world might want to fill up its oil inventories, maybe we'll get a permanent small risk premium on the oil price etc. (although if this resolves nicely, it could also go the other way; more Iranian oil on the seas, reduced risk premium, perhaps also no replenishment of oil inventories etc.) 2) Vanguard cites an analysis where 125$ oil (and 150eur gas) for the year can take 1% off the Eurozone's GDP and into a recession ks1977; Hopefully (...) 125$ as an average for the year is well on the high side. That we "only" lose 1% of GDP (for the Eurozone) at an oil price of 125$ I find encouraging - surely it will take much more than that to destroy Sinokor's market power? 125$ is not worst case, however; if the war drags on (is it 500M barrels oversupply that one believes we will have in total this year? Best case, we lose 25-50M per week now), and/or we see attacks where oil production is permanently taken out, then it can push up the oil price both in the short term and longer term. I also saw some speculate that inflation due to oil price could be met with interest rate CUTS instead of interest rate hikes as one always gets. The reasoning was that increased oil prices will lead to increased prices which reduce everyone's purchasing power and thus reduce consumption. Whether this has any merit or if it's pure wishful thinking, I cannot see. 1) https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/iran-war-scenarios-the-oil-price-that-breaks-parts-of-the-economy/ 2) https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/articles/potential-impact-high-oil-prices-economies.html·22.3.The speculation about interest rate cuts is probably wishful thinking – at least if we consider the Iraq War (1990-1991) where increased oil prices led to increased inflation, which was attempted to be corrected by raising interest rates. Now, there is a difference in how effective raising interest rates is when inflation is due to supply problems (such as after covid) and when it is due to demand, but it's not a given that we address these significantly differently.
- ·23.2.A SEISMIC SHIFT That's how OET described what we are witnessing now - while also declaring that the cycle we have been waiting for all these years started in Q4/25 (for crude oil tanker). Too many words to paste in here, but I jotted down a bit more detailed here (with a lot of uncertainty and complete disregard for the risks) https://www.finansavisen.no/forum/thread/174061/et-seismisk-skifte-for-vlcc [I also posted the post on the OSE version in here, but I allow myself to paste it in here too so that it can be a bit more in the spotlight]
- ·17.1.I've harped enough about the background for the upcoming supercycle in tanker (#EEXI/CII), but just to jinx it; it's finally here. First, FRO's achieved VLCC rates 2005-2009 (unfortunately didn't find 2003 and 2004 on their website); 2005 = 57 400 2006 = 57 800 2007 = 45 700 2008 = 74 500 2009 = 38 300 Then estimated spot rate for "modern" vessels (i.e. excl. ECO and scrubber) on TD3C (from FRO's annual reports); 2019 = 39 400 2020 = 48 300 2021 = (- 520) 2022 = 16 900 2023 = 36 000 2024 = 34 900 2025 = 37 600 (my guesstimate) And finally FFA 2026 for TD3C 2026 converted to spot (stolen from a shipping analyst's post on Nordnet under HUNT earlier this week); Q1 = 82k Q2 = 78k Q3= 63k Q4 =74k This would then give an "expected" annual average for 2026 = 74 250 (excl. ECO and scrubber) If FFA is in the right ballpark then we can jinx it and say that the supercycle has started (whether you want to say it started in 2023 or starts this year is up to you) Can recommend listening to FRO's Q3/25 (if nothing else, just Barstad's introduction) and the interview with Barstad on Vonheim if one wants a bit of a "kids in a candy store"-feeling.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
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Dataa ei löytynyt
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 14.5. | 1 päivä |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 19.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 13.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 13.8.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 15.5.2025 | ||
2024 Q4 -tulosraportti 20.2.2025 |
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti
83 päivää sitten
‧35 min
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: FactSet, Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 14.5. | 1 päivä |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 19.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 13.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 13.8.2025 | ||
2025 Q1 -tulosraportti 15.5.2025 | ||
2024 Q4 -tulosraportti 20.2.2025 |
1,55 USD/osake
Viimeisin osinko
5,86%Tuotto/v
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
- ·21.3.Which oil price can the world economy withstand? I have seen professionals say that the world cannot withstand a sustained 80$, and I have seen professionals say that if we adjust for inflation, then 145$ is perfectly fine... I guess the answer lies somewhere in between here (but this is not something I know) In connection with Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine in 2022, we saw elevated oil prices for quite a long period; it looks like Brent >90$ for 9 months of 2022, >105$ for around 4 months and perhaps an average for the year as a whole around 100$? 1) Oxford Economics believes that two months of oil at 140$ - combined with increased interest rates and other challenges - can lead parts of the world economy into a mild recession. They also say that 100$ for two months will only take a few per mille off global GDP (due to increased inflation), and that recession will be averted. ks1977; Just looking at two months is too simple, I think - will we really go back to 60-70$ after the war? The longer the war lasts, the more oil production we lose (the inventories are largely full and several countries have already reduced production), and the higher (and longer) the oil price will be (all else being equal, mind you). I therefore have trouble seeing us going back to 60-70$ after the war (but I can always be wrong), what if, for example, we end up staying at 80-90$? It will take time to get production up in the Middle East again, there will be disruptions, the supply-glut thesis is perhaps over, the world might want to fill up its oil inventories, maybe we'll get a permanent small risk premium on the oil price etc. (although if this resolves nicely, it could also go the other way; more Iranian oil on the seas, reduced risk premium, perhaps also no replenishment of oil inventories etc.) 2) Vanguard cites an analysis where 125$ oil (and 150eur gas) for the year can take 1% off the Eurozone's GDP and into a recession ks1977; Hopefully (...) 125$ as an average for the year is well on the high side. That we "only" lose 1% of GDP (for the Eurozone) at an oil price of 125$ I find encouraging - surely it will take much more than that to destroy Sinokor's market power? 125$ is not worst case, however; if the war drags on (is it 500M barrels oversupply that one believes we will have in total this year? Best case, we lose 25-50M per week now), and/or we see attacks where oil production is permanently taken out, then it can push up the oil price both in the short term and longer term. I also saw some speculate that inflation due to oil price could be met with interest rate CUTS instead of interest rate hikes as one always gets. The reasoning was that increased oil prices will lead to increased prices which reduce everyone's purchasing power and thus reduce consumption. Whether this has any merit or if it's pure wishful thinking, I cannot see. 1) https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/iran-war-scenarios-the-oil-price-that-breaks-parts-of-the-economy/ 2) https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/articles/potential-impact-high-oil-prices-economies.html·22.3.The speculation about interest rate cuts is probably wishful thinking – at least if we consider the Iraq War (1990-1991) where increased oil prices led to increased inflation, which was attempted to be corrected by raising interest rates. Now, there is a difference in how effective raising interest rates is when inflation is due to supply problems (such as after covid) and when it is due to demand, but it's not a given that we address these significantly differently.
- ·23.2.A SEISMIC SHIFT That's how OET described what we are witnessing now - while also declaring that the cycle we have been waiting for all these years started in Q4/25 (for crude oil tanker). Too many words to paste in here, but I jotted down a bit more detailed here (with a lot of uncertainty and complete disregard for the risks) https://www.finansavisen.no/forum/thread/174061/et-seismisk-skifte-for-vlcc [I also posted the post on the OSE version in here, but I allow myself to paste it in here too so that it can be a bit more in the spotlight]
- ·17.1.I've harped enough about the background for the upcoming supercycle in tanker (#EEXI/CII), but just to jinx it; it's finally here. First, FRO's achieved VLCC rates 2005-2009 (unfortunately didn't find 2003 and 2004 on their website); 2005 = 57 400 2006 = 57 800 2007 = 45 700 2008 = 74 500 2009 = 38 300 Then estimated spot rate for "modern" vessels (i.e. excl. ECO and scrubber) on TD3C (from FRO's annual reports); 2019 = 39 400 2020 = 48 300 2021 = (- 520) 2022 = 16 900 2023 = 36 000 2024 = 34 900 2025 = 37 600 (my guesstimate) And finally FFA 2026 for TD3C 2026 converted to spot (stolen from a shipping analyst's post on Nordnet under HUNT earlier this week); Q1 = 82k Q2 = 78k Q3= 63k Q4 =74k This would then give an "expected" annual average for 2026 = 74 250 (excl. ECO and scrubber) If FFA is in the right ballpark then we can jinx it and say that the supercycle has started (whether you want to say it started in 2023 or starts this year is up to you) Can recommend listening to FRO's Q3/25 (if nothing else, just Barstad's introduction) and the interview with Barstad on Vonheim if one wants a bit of a "kids in a candy store"-feeling.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Määrä
Osto
-
Myynti
Määrä
-
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - | - |
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