2026 Q2 -tulosraportti
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4 päivää sitten
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Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
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Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q3 -tulosraportti 27.11. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 26.8. | ||
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 27.5. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 28.4. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 28.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 27.8.2025 |
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
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Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
·11 t sitten · MuokattuThere has been a new analyst update after Q2: Joseph Reagor at Roth MKM reiterated his Buy recommendation on August 28 and maintained the target price of C$0.70 for Guanajuato Silver. This is particularly relevant as the update came after the report and the share price drop. Roth thus chose not to lower either the recommendation or the target price despite Q2's weaker EBITDA, higher AISC, and the Bolañitos problems. https://stockanalysis.com/quote/tsxv/GSVR/forecast/ This means that Roth, for now, also seems to view Q2's weakness as transient/execution-related rather than a structural break in the case. C$0.70 corresponds to approximately +47 % from Friday's close of C$0.475. The broader S&P Global compilation simultaneously shows two analysts with an average target price of around C$0.68 and a consensus Buy, but not all estimates there are necessarily updated after Q2. This is also interesting in light of the report where Q2 showed continued positive net income, $5.8m in adjusted EBITDA, and significant debt reduction, but higher costs because Bolañitos requires unusually large investments in mine development. The company also expects that the elevated investments will still affect AISC during Q3–Q4. My interpretation for the GSVR case is that the market has revised the stock significantly harder than the only fresh professional analyst. The fact that Roth remains at Buy/C$0.70 after having seen the Q2 figures is therefore a clearly positive data point, but the next real revaluation still requires that the Bolañitos development begins to show in production, margins, and AISC. In the image/link, the Q3 estimate (I interpret it as Roth's estimate) is $67.12m in revenue, compared to $42.46m in Q2. That is +58 % sequentially. Even more striking are the earnings assumptions: operating income is expected to go from $1.89m to $28.77m, net income from $0.56m to $18.71m, and EPS to $0.02. This means that Roth is not just counting on higher metal prices. To achieve that kind of earnings leverage, the model must likely include a combination of higher realized silver/gold prices, better production/grades, and significantly improved margins. US$67.12m implies approximately +58 % against Q2's $42.46m. This sounds extreme at first, but two things make it possible: GSVR has 40,000 oz silver/month hedged at very high levels – 20k at $84.50 and another 20k within $80–93, as well as 300 oz gold/month at $5,220. Together, the silver hedges correspond to about 34 % of current silver production. Furthermore, the estimate does not look like an isolated error at StockAnalysis. MarketScreener is at C$91.8m Q3 revenue, which at a normal USD/CAD rate roughly corresponds to the same order of magnitude. So there is at least one analyst model that truly expects a strong Q3 uplift. The problem is rather the $28.77m operating income. This would mean that the operating margin goes from approximately 4.5 % in Q2 to ~43 % in Q3. This requires not only higher metal prices but a substantial combination of better Bolañitos production, grades/tonnage, lower unit costs, and strong realized prices. Q2 still showed that Bolañitos is in ramp-up: gold production fell 15 % q/q to 3,653 oz despite silver production increasing by 2 %. Certainly, $67m revenue is aggressive but absolutely possible with today's metal prices and hedges. My reasonable base assumption is $55–60m. An $18.7m net profit, however, is the real bull assumption. If GSVR actually comes close to, for example, $60–65m revenue and $12–18m net income in Q3, I would consider it a very strong quarter, and then C$0.70 starts to look quite cautious, provided that the improvement is operational and not mainly derivative/one-off effects.The company is very clear that Q2's AISC rose to $71.66/AgEq oz from $53.43 in Q1, sustaining capex rose 177 % to $9.49m, and they explicitly state that the high investments will continue to affect AISC during both Q3 and Q4. Bolañitos also continued to have elevated operating costs due to neglected mine development, improvement is expected gradually as more mining faces become available, with the goal of reaching the right level before the turn of the year, not necessarily fully in Q3. I would therefore rather estimate a Q3 revenue of $55–62m, Mine operating income around $14–19m, Adj. EBITDA around $5–10m, and an AISC of $60–70. But the truly interesting thing is that AISC doesn't even need to fall very much for Q3 to be significantly better. The high hedged prices and the strong spot market can cause revenue and EBITDA to increase even while AISC remains high. Furthermore, there is a potentially positive counterweight in that GSVR has paused extraction at VMC and is moving personnel and equipment to Cubo, San Ignacio, and Bolañitos, where the company expects higher margins and higher total production. If they achieve $60m+ and $10m+ net profit while Bolañitos shows increasing production, I would consider the report very strong, even if it significantly misses the analyst's $67m/$18.7m. GSVR does not need to deliver the analyst's fantastic $67m/$18.7m for the stock to perform. A Q3 around $55–60m revenue, $10–14m EBITDA, and $4–7m net, together with concrete signs that Bolañitos is developing in the right direction, would in my opinion be enough to make C$0.60–0.70 clearly justifiable. The big share price catalyst will then come when the market sees that the high development costs actually lead to lower AISC and higher production in Q4/2027. The positive thing is that production can improve before AISC does. Bolañitos had already completed approximately 2,500 meters of development as of August 15, and management says that production should improve in the coming quarters. A more bear case is C$0.45–0,55, meaning the market continues to price in execution risk and high AISC. Right now, GSVR is trading more on distrust of execution than on the silver price. The market needs to get some form of proof that the development money is actually starting to yield higher production.
·2 päivää sittenThe Q2 result was far from disappointing and with future prospects and expansion plans for the Bolanitus gold mine already well underway, we will see an enormous upside in Q3. I believe the decline in the share price will be short-lived as it was an exaggerated decline yesterday. The company is worth far more than the current price today. More good news may come before Q3 and silver is historically set to rise. So buy or hold 🤩🚀- ·2 päivää sittenWarsh managed to push down gold but so far not break silver. That makes the next attack on $70 significantly more interesting than the first.What I like for a Friday rebound is the capitulation character itself, where silver is down ~3.5% for the day but significantly more from the intraday high, and the last part of the decline looks like stops/liquidation rather than controlled distribution. When that type of movement stops accelerating, you often get a rather violent counter-reaction. Higher probability for a rebound towards $67.3–68.0 than for a new immediate vertical fall, but $69+ requires significantly more buying pressure. A close around $67.5–68 would also be clearly better technically for next week than today's current ~$66.85.
- ·2 päivää sittenExciting price development in silver. Broken through and reached $70. With Warsh at 16:00, the NY-open could very well become the liquidity positioning itself before the really big move comes, I think... ...If silver enters the Toronto-open around $70.3–70.5 after actually having broken $70, GSVR gets a strong sector trigger right when trading begins. If it holds $70 and reclaims $70.6–71, C$0.55–0.58 becomes the natural first area... There is also an interesting timing. Guana fell after Q2 despite the balance sheet having improved, which means that some of the fundamental disappointment may already be discounted. A silver price that suddenly establishes itself above $70 shifts focus from Q2's historical margins to what Q3/H2 can earn at significantly higher realized metal prices. The hedgers naturally dampen the pure earnings leverage, as approximately one third of silver production is hedged, but 2/3 still has exposure, and the share price is also affected by the risk appetite of the entire junior sector. That's where I believe the greatest short-term leverage lies. But today's joker is Warsh. Guana can, for example, surge at the Toronto-open on $70+ silver and then reverse sharply if Warsh at 16:00 sends USD/rates up and silver back under $70...I don't believe in any direct hike either, but Warsh is hardly likely to completely let go of the inflation hawk, but rather keep the door clearly open for a hike before Christmas. The question is how much of that the market has already priced in... with silver over $70, a tougher message could lead to a brutal shakeout, while anything less hawkish than feared could send us further towards $72–74.
- ·3 päivää sitten · MuokattuSoon $70. In silver. A new test of $70 and, above all, establishment above $70 would likely significantly improve sentiment in miners.
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2026 Q2 -tulosraportti
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4 päivää sitten
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- ·11 t sitten · MuokattuThere has been a new analyst update after Q2: Joseph Reagor at Roth MKM reiterated his Buy recommendation on August 28 and maintained the target price of C$0.70 for Guanajuato Silver. This is particularly relevant as the update came after the report and the share price drop. Roth thus chose not to lower either the recommendation or the target price despite Q2's weaker EBITDA, higher AISC, and the Bolañitos problems. https://stockanalysis.com/quote/tsxv/GSVR/forecast/ This means that Roth, for now, also seems to view Q2's weakness as transient/execution-related rather than a structural break in the case. C$0.70 corresponds to approximately +47 % from Friday's close of C$0.475. The broader S&P Global compilation simultaneously shows two analysts with an average target price of around C$0.68 and a consensus Buy, but not all estimates there are necessarily updated after Q2. This is also interesting in light of the report where Q2 showed continued positive net income, $5.8m in adjusted EBITDA, and significant debt reduction, but higher costs because Bolañitos requires unusually large investments in mine development. The company also expects that the elevated investments will still affect AISC during Q3–Q4. My interpretation for the GSVR case is that the market has revised the stock significantly harder than the only fresh professional analyst. The fact that Roth remains at Buy/C$0.70 after having seen the Q2 figures is therefore a clearly positive data point, but the next real revaluation still requires that the Bolañitos development begins to show in production, margins, and AISC. In the image/link, the Q3 estimate (I interpret it as Roth's estimate) is $67.12m in revenue, compared to $42.46m in Q2. That is +58 % sequentially. Even more striking are the earnings assumptions: operating income is expected to go from $1.89m to $28.77m, net income from $0.56m to $18.71m, and EPS to $0.02. This means that Roth is not just counting on higher metal prices. To achieve that kind of earnings leverage, the model must likely include a combination of higher realized silver/gold prices, better production/grades, and significantly improved margins. US$67.12m implies approximately +58 % against Q2's $42.46m. This sounds extreme at first, but two things make it possible: GSVR has 40,000 oz silver/month hedged at very high levels – 20k at $84.50 and another 20k within $80–93, as well as 300 oz gold/month at $5,220. Together, the silver hedges correspond to about 34 % of current silver production. Furthermore, the estimate does not look like an isolated error at StockAnalysis. MarketScreener is at C$91.8m Q3 revenue, which at a normal USD/CAD rate roughly corresponds to the same order of magnitude. So there is at least one analyst model that truly expects a strong Q3 uplift. The problem is rather the $28.77m operating income. This would mean that the operating margin goes from approximately 4.5 % in Q2 to ~43 % in Q3. This requires not only higher metal prices but a substantial combination of better Bolañitos production, grades/tonnage, lower unit costs, and strong realized prices. Q2 still showed that Bolañitos is in ramp-up: gold production fell 15 % q/q to 3,653 oz despite silver production increasing by 2 %. Certainly, $67m revenue is aggressive but absolutely possible with today's metal prices and hedges. My reasonable base assumption is $55–60m. An $18.7m net profit, however, is the real bull assumption. If GSVR actually comes close to, for example, $60–65m revenue and $12–18m net income in Q3, I would consider it a very strong quarter, and then C$0.70 starts to look quite cautious, provided that the improvement is operational and not mainly derivative/one-off effects.The company is very clear that Q2's AISC rose to $71.66/AgEq oz from $53.43 in Q1, sustaining capex rose 177 % to $9.49m, and they explicitly state that the high investments will continue to affect AISC during both Q3 and Q4. Bolañitos also continued to have elevated operating costs due to neglected mine development, improvement is expected gradually as more mining faces become available, with the goal of reaching the right level before the turn of the year, not necessarily fully in Q3. I would therefore rather estimate a Q3 revenue of $55–62m, Mine operating income around $14–19m, Adj. EBITDA around $5–10m, and an AISC of $60–70. But the truly interesting thing is that AISC doesn't even need to fall very much for Q3 to be significantly better. The high hedged prices and the strong spot market can cause revenue and EBITDA to increase even while AISC remains high. Furthermore, there is a potentially positive counterweight in that GSVR has paused extraction at VMC and is moving personnel and equipment to Cubo, San Ignacio, and Bolañitos, where the company expects higher margins and higher total production. If they achieve $60m+ and $10m+ net profit while Bolañitos shows increasing production, I would consider the report very strong, even if it significantly misses the analyst's $67m/$18.7m. GSVR does not need to deliver the analyst's fantastic $67m/$18.7m for the stock to perform. A Q3 around $55–60m revenue, $10–14m EBITDA, and $4–7m net, together with concrete signs that Bolañitos is developing in the right direction, would in my opinion be enough to make C$0.60–0.70 clearly justifiable. The big share price catalyst will then come when the market sees that the high development costs actually lead to lower AISC and higher production in Q4/2027. The positive thing is that production can improve before AISC does. Bolañitos had already completed approximately 2,500 meters of development as of August 15, and management says that production should improve in the coming quarters. A more bear case is C$0.45–0,55, meaning the market continues to price in execution risk and high AISC. Right now, GSVR is trading more on distrust of execution than on the silver price. The market needs to get some form of proof that the development money is actually starting to yield higher production.
- ·2 päivää sittenThe Q2 result was far from disappointing and with future prospects and expansion plans for the Bolanitus gold mine already well underway, we will see an enormous upside in Q3. I believe the decline in the share price will be short-lived as it was an exaggerated decline yesterday. The company is worth far more than the current price today. More good news may come before Q3 and silver is historically set to rise. So buy or hold 🤩🚀
- ·2 päivää sittenWarsh managed to push down gold but so far not break silver. That makes the next attack on $70 significantly more interesting than the first.What I like for a Friday rebound is the capitulation character itself, where silver is down ~3.5% for the day but significantly more from the intraday high, and the last part of the decline looks like stops/liquidation rather than controlled distribution. When that type of movement stops accelerating, you often get a rather violent counter-reaction. Higher probability for a rebound towards $67.3–68.0 than for a new immediate vertical fall, but $69+ requires significantly more buying pressure. A close around $67.5–68 would also be clearly better technically for next week than today's current ~$66.85.
- ·2 päivää sittenExciting price development in silver. Broken through and reached $70. With Warsh at 16:00, the NY-open could very well become the liquidity positioning itself before the really big move comes, I think... ...If silver enters the Toronto-open around $70.3–70.5 after actually having broken $70, GSVR gets a strong sector trigger right when trading begins. If it holds $70 and reclaims $70.6–71, C$0.55–0.58 becomes the natural first area... There is also an interesting timing. Guana fell after Q2 despite the balance sheet having improved, which means that some of the fundamental disappointment may already be discounted. A silver price that suddenly establishes itself above $70 shifts focus from Q2's historical margins to what Q3/H2 can earn at significantly higher realized metal prices. The hedgers naturally dampen the pure earnings leverage, as approximately one third of silver production is hedged, but 2/3 still has exposure, and the share price is also affected by the risk appetite of the entire junior sector. That's where I believe the greatest short-term leverage lies. But today's joker is Warsh. Guana can, for example, surge at the Toronto-open on $70+ silver and then reverse sharply if Warsh at 16:00 sends USD/rates up and silver back under $70...I don't believe in any direct hike either, but Warsh is hardly likely to completely let go of the inflation hawk, but rather keep the door clearly open for a hike before Christmas. The question is how much of that the market has already priced in... with silver over $70, a tougher message could lead to a brutal shakeout, while anything less hawkish than feared could send us further towards $72–74.
- ·3 päivää sitten · MuokattuSoon $70. In silver. A new test of $70 and, above all, establishment above $70 would likely significantly improve sentiment in miners.
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Ei dataa
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - | - |
Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q3 -tulosraportti 27.11. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 26.8. | ||
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 27.5. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 28.4. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 28.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 27.8.2025 |
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti
Vain PDF
4 päivää sitten
Uutiset
Ei uutisia tällä hetkellä
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q3 -tulosraportti 27.11. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 26.8. | ||
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 27.5. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 28.4. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 28.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 27.8.2025 |
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
- ·11 t sitten · MuokattuThere has been a new analyst update after Q2: Joseph Reagor at Roth MKM reiterated his Buy recommendation on August 28 and maintained the target price of C$0.70 for Guanajuato Silver. This is particularly relevant as the update came after the report and the share price drop. Roth thus chose not to lower either the recommendation or the target price despite Q2's weaker EBITDA, higher AISC, and the Bolañitos problems. https://stockanalysis.com/quote/tsxv/GSVR/forecast/ This means that Roth, for now, also seems to view Q2's weakness as transient/execution-related rather than a structural break in the case. C$0.70 corresponds to approximately +47 % from Friday's close of C$0.475. The broader S&P Global compilation simultaneously shows two analysts with an average target price of around C$0.68 and a consensus Buy, but not all estimates there are necessarily updated after Q2. This is also interesting in light of the report where Q2 showed continued positive net income, $5.8m in adjusted EBITDA, and significant debt reduction, but higher costs because Bolañitos requires unusually large investments in mine development. The company also expects that the elevated investments will still affect AISC during Q3–Q4. My interpretation for the GSVR case is that the market has revised the stock significantly harder than the only fresh professional analyst. The fact that Roth remains at Buy/C$0.70 after having seen the Q2 figures is therefore a clearly positive data point, but the next real revaluation still requires that the Bolañitos development begins to show in production, margins, and AISC. In the image/link, the Q3 estimate (I interpret it as Roth's estimate) is $67.12m in revenue, compared to $42.46m in Q2. That is +58 % sequentially. Even more striking are the earnings assumptions: operating income is expected to go from $1.89m to $28.77m, net income from $0.56m to $18.71m, and EPS to $0.02. This means that Roth is not just counting on higher metal prices. To achieve that kind of earnings leverage, the model must likely include a combination of higher realized silver/gold prices, better production/grades, and significantly improved margins. US$67.12m implies approximately +58 % against Q2's $42.46m. This sounds extreme at first, but two things make it possible: GSVR has 40,000 oz silver/month hedged at very high levels – 20k at $84.50 and another 20k within $80–93, as well as 300 oz gold/month at $5,220. Together, the silver hedges correspond to about 34 % of current silver production. Furthermore, the estimate does not look like an isolated error at StockAnalysis. MarketScreener is at C$91.8m Q3 revenue, which at a normal USD/CAD rate roughly corresponds to the same order of magnitude. So there is at least one analyst model that truly expects a strong Q3 uplift. The problem is rather the $28.77m operating income. This would mean that the operating margin goes from approximately 4.5 % in Q2 to ~43 % in Q3. This requires not only higher metal prices but a substantial combination of better Bolañitos production, grades/tonnage, lower unit costs, and strong realized prices. Q2 still showed that Bolañitos is in ramp-up: gold production fell 15 % q/q to 3,653 oz despite silver production increasing by 2 %. Certainly, $67m revenue is aggressive but absolutely possible with today's metal prices and hedges. My reasonable base assumption is $55–60m. An $18.7m net profit, however, is the real bull assumption. If GSVR actually comes close to, for example, $60–65m revenue and $12–18m net income in Q3, I would consider it a very strong quarter, and then C$0.70 starts to look quite cautious, provided that the improvement is operational and not mainly derivative/one-off effects.The company is very clear that Q2's AISC rose to $71.66/AgEq oz from $53.43 in Q1, sustaining capex rose 177 % to $9.49m, and they explicitly state that the high investments will continue to affect AISC during both Q3 and Q4. Bolañitos also continued to have elevated operating costs due to neglected mine development, improvement is expected gradually as more mining faces become available, with the goal of reaching the right level before the turn of the year, not necessarily fully in Q3. I would therefore rather estimate a Q3 revenue of $55–62m, Mine operating income around $14–19m, Adj. EBITDA around $5–10m, and an AISC of $60–70. But the truly interesting thing is that AISC doesn't even need to fall very much for Q3 to be significantly better. The high hedged prices and the strong spot market can cause revenue and EBITDA to increase even while AISC remains high. Furthermore, there is a potentially positive counterweight in that GSVR has paused extraction at VMC and is moving personnel and equipment to Cubo, San Ignacio, and Bolañitos, where the company expects higher margins and higher total production. If they achieve $60m+ and $10m+ net profit while Bolañitos shows increasing production, I would consider the report very strong, even if it significantly misses the analyst's $67m/$18.7m. GSVR does not need to deliver the analyst's fantastic $67m/$18.7m for the stock to perform. A Q3 around $55–60m revenue, $10–14m EBITDA, and $4–7m net, together with concrete signs that Bolañitos is developing in the right direction, would in my opinion be enough to make C$0.60–0.70 clearly justifiable. The big share price catalyst will then come when the market sees that the high development costs actually lead to lower AISC and higher production in Q4/2027. The positive thing is that production can improve before AISC does. Bolañitos had already completed approximately 2,500 meters of development as of August 15, and management says that production should improve in the coming quarters. A more bear case is C$0.45–0,55, meaning the market continues to price in execution risk and high AISC. Right now, GSVR is trading more on distrust of execution than on the silver price. The market needs to get some form of proof that the development money is actually starting to yield higher production.
- ·2 päivää sittenThe Q2 result was far from disappointing and with future prospects and expansion plans for the Bolanitus gold mine already well underway, we will see an enormous upside in Q3. I believe the decline in the share price will be short-lived as it was an exaggerated decline yesterday. The company is worth far more than the current price today. More good news may come before Q3 and silver is historically set to rise. So buy or hold 🤩🚀
- ·2 päivää sittenWarsh managed to push down gold but so far not break silver. That makes the next attack on $70 significantly more interesting than the first.What I like for a Friday rebound is the capitulation character itself, where silver is down ~3.5% for the day but significantly more from the intraday high, and the last part of the decline looks like stops/liquidation rather than controlled distribution. When that type of movement stops accelerating, you often get a rather violent counter-reaction. Higher probability for a rebound towards $67.3–68.0 than for a new immediate vertical fall, but $69+ requires significantly more buying pressure. A close around $67.5–68 would also be clearly better technically for next week than today's current ~$66.85.
- ·2 päivää sittenExciting price development in silver. Broken through and reached $70. With Warsh at 16:00, the NY-open could very well become the liquidity positioning itself before the really big move comes, I think... ...If silver enters the Toronto-open around $70.3–70.5 after actually having broken $70, GSVR gets a strong sector trigger right when trading begins. If it holds $70 and reclaims $70.6–71, C$0.55–0.58 becomes the natural first area... There is also an interesting timing. Guana fell after Q2 despite the balance sheet having improved, which means that some of the fundamental disappointment may already be discounted. A silver price that suddenly establishes itself above $70 shifts focus from Q2's historical margins to what Q3/H2 can earn at significantly higher realized metal prices. The hedgers naturally dampen the pure earnings leverage, as approximately one third of silver production is hedged, but 2/3 still has exposure, and the share price is also affected by the risk appetite of the entire junior sector. That's where I believe the greatest short-term leverage lies. But today's joker is Warsh. Guana can, for example, surge at the Toronto-open on $70+ silver and then reverse sharply if Warsh at 16:00 sends USD/rates up and silver back under $70...I don't believe in any direct hike either, but Warsh is hardly likely to completely let go of the inflation hawk, but rather keep the door clearly open for a hike before Christmas. The question is how much of that the market has already priced in... with silver over $70, a tougher message could lead to a brutal shakeout, while anything less hawkish than feared could send us further towards $72–74.
- ·3 päivää sitten · MuokattuSoon $70. In silver. A new test of $70 and, above all, establishment above $70 would likely significantly improve sentiment in miners.
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