2026 Q2 -tulosraportti
32 päivää sitten
‧35 min
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Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Välittäjätilasto
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Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q3 -tulosraportti 5.11. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 15.7. | ||
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 12.5. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 12.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 6.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 17.7.2025 |
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·14 t sittenACQUISITION WITHIN ONE YEAR??? Excuse me if I'm rambling about the company, but shouldn't Camurus be a perfect acquisition candidate? FluidCrystal is not just "a new formulation". It is a patented platform for long-acting drugs, where a subcutaneous injection forms a lipid-based depot that slowly releases the drug over days, weeks or months. It can also be combined with autoinjector/pens for self-administration. For me, it is so revolutionary given how many different patient groups need long-acting medications. I myself work on a psychosis ward and a large part of the patients stop taking their absolutely crucial medication to avoid, for example, auditory hallucinations. Camurus doesn't seem to be sitting around waiting to be acquired. They rather seem to think: "We can build on our own." And that's good for us shareholders, as the price tag for the company gets more and more expensive. The stumbling block, in that case, is probably Sandberg Development, which owns approximately 30.2% of Camurus. Regardless, I'm guessing there's a 50% chance the company will be acquired within a year, -What do you think? The big one for me is CAM2056. It's Camurus's own monthly depot of semaglutide. Camurus reports that Phase 1b showed positive effect and that a Phase 2b study is planned to start in the second half of 2026. What would FluidCrystal be worth if it were used on 5–10 major drugs? We shareholders, or at least I, feel that we own a part of a very interesting opportunity!! Lilly has practically said: -We have some of the world's most valuable drug candidates and we want to use Camurus's technology to make them long-acting. The company is growing, has strong profitability, 4.1 billion in cash, several products/programs, and a technology that has already received significant validation through Lilly. But why is it so shorted? My belief is that Camurus is considered too expensive: ....P/E (last 12 months): approx 54.5× Expected P/E for 2026: approx 39×....maybe they think: - Yes, the technology is fantastic. But first show clinical results, regulatory approval and real billion-dollar revenues!! CAM2056 entails enormous potential – but also enormous expectations. If Camurus succeeds with long-acting semaglutide, the value can become very large. But if the results do not meet expectations, the valuation can quickly compress. Deflate. It is precisely such binary situations that hedge funds like to trade around. It is also important to remember that FI's individual register does not show all positions below 0.5%, so the number of actual short sellers is greater than what can be seen directly. It is therefore a classic "high expectations vs. enormous optionality" stock. - What do you other owners think?- ·1 päivä sittenNow it's starting to get really interesting. On July 17, Camurus announced that the FDA has accepted the resubmitted application for CAM2029/Oczyesa for acromegaly for review. In my opinion, this is the most important Q3 event. And Camurus has several things underway simultaneously: CAM2029/Oczyesa – USA: The FDA process is active again. SORENTO: phase 3 in polycystic liver disease, with important results expected in 2026. POSITANO/PLD: continued development. CAM2056: monthly depot of semaglutide. Lilly collaboration: Lilly has also exercised an option regarding amylin receptor agonists. And at the same time, the existing business is strong. Q2 2026 generated 702 MSEK in revenues, product sales increased 13 % and Brixadi royalties increased a full 42 %. Cash was 4.1 billion kronor. If CAM2029 succeeds in obtaining American approval and is then broadened to more indications, the company could achieve a completely different revenue profile. Camurus itself estimates that CAM2029 could potentially reach over 2 billion USD in peak sales across several indications. However, this is the company's own potential assessment, not a forecast I would take for granted. An American approval for Oczyesa could significantly change the perception of Camurus. If CAM2029 shows clear clinical effect in polycystic liver disease, the market will get further proof that the platform works in more large areas of use. And in fact, I think Q3 is more interesting than just the next quarterly report. Camurus has presentations on August 25, September 2, September 14 and September 17, and then the Q3 report will be released on November 5
- ·10.8.Yes. If you mean Camurus as an investment with approximately a 12-month horizon, I would primarily focus on clinical/regulatory risk versus the already strong commercial base. I have looked at the latest information from Q2 2026 and the company's pipeline. My brief conclusion I do not see Camurus as a company where the case stands or falls with a single clinical study. That is an important strength. The company already has commercial revenues from Buvidal and Brixadi royalties, over SEK 4 billion in cash, and reiterated its guidance for 2026 of SEK 2.6–2.9 billion in revenues and SEK 0.9–1.2 billion in operating profit. But the coming 12 months are unusually eventful, and the stock could become very sensitive to clinical/regulatory announcements. 1. Biggest opportunity: CAM2029/SORENTO This is, in my opinion, the most important clinical value driver. CAM2029 is in Phase 3 for GEP-NET, and Camurus expects the required number of PFS events to be reached during Q4 2026. Thus, we will likely get a significant data point within the next few months. Positive scenario: SORENTO shows clear effect. CAM2029 could become another commercially significant product. The market begins to value CAM2029 as a broader franchise rather than primarily acromegaly. The combination of GEP-NET + acromegaly + PLD would provide significantly greater potential. It is particularly interesting because Camurus has already shown positive data in PLD and has an ongoing extension and is considering the next development steps. The risk: SORENTO is still a real Phase 3 risk. Even if previous data and the drug's mechanism are encouraging, there is no guarantee that the primary endpoint will be statistically met or that the effect will be commercially attractive enough. Therefore, I would not fully value the entire GEP-NET value in a 12-month valuation before the results are known. 2. Oclaiz/Oczyesa – lower clinical risk, but high regulatory risk Here I think one should distinguish between clinical risk and regulatory/CMC risk. Oczyesa is already approved in EU/UK for acromegaly. The problem in the USA, however, has been the FDA process and manufacturing-related issues. The FDA's previous rejections have delayed the USA launch. The interesting thing is that Camurus now states that the outstanding FDA comments have been addressed and that the company expects a new regulatory update. My assessment: I see this as lower clinical risk than SORENTO, as the drug's clinical effect is already significantly more established. But I would not underestimate regulatory/manufacturing risk given the history. So it's not: "Does the drug work?" but rather: "Can Camurus get through the American regulatory/manufacturing process?" That is an important difference. 3. CAM2056 – potentially enormous opportunity, but high risk This is, in my opinion, the most asymmetric case. CAM2056 is Camurus' monthly depot of semaglutide. Phase 1b yielded positive results, and Camurus plans to start Phase 2b in the second half of 2026. If monthly semaglutide can truly provide competitive efficacy, safety, and above all, more convenient dosing, there is a very large commercial value. But here I would be cautious. The risks are significant: Phase 2b is not yet proven. Semaglutide is already extremely competitive. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have enormous resources. Camurus must show that monthly dosing provides a real clinical/commercial advantage. Manufacturing, device/autoinjector, and long-term safety must work. A good Phase 1b does not automatically mean a good Phase 2b. So I would value CAM2056 as an option, not as something to be taken for granted in today's fundamental valuation. At the same time, the Lilly collaboration is a very interesting quality stamp on the technology. Lilly also exercised its option in Q2 2026 to include amylin receptor agonists in the collaboration. My risk map for the coming 12 months Factor My assessment Significance Buvidal growth 🟢 Relatively low risk High Brixadi royalties 🟢 Relatively low risk High Oczyesa Europe 🟢 Relatively low risk Medium Oclaiz USA 🟡 Regulatory risk High CAM2029/SORENTO 🟠 Clinical risk Very high CAM2029 PLD 🟡 Medium Medium CAM2056 Phase 2b 🔴 High clinical risk Very high long-term potential Lilly/Gubra collaborations 🟢/🟡 Medium Financing 🟢 Low risk Low What I think the market can easily underestimate Camurus has actually become significantly less binary. Q2 2026 showed record-high product sales of SEK 528 million, 13 % higher than the previous year, and operating profit was SEK 293 million. Cash exceeded SEK 4 billion. This means that Camurus does not need to "hit" every pipeline project to survive. That is a big difference from a typical biotech company. But the big risk is the valuation Here I would be more cautious. If the stock already discounts: strong continued Buvidal growth, rapidly growing Brixadi, successful Oclaiz launch in the USA, positive SORENTO, strong CAM2056 development,
·5.8.Nowadays it feels like all listed companies have extra high demands if they are to rise and maintain the share price level. Furthermore, if there are higher taxes after the election, then perhaps some want to stay on the sidelines right now? Many older investors perhaps feel like selling and taking some for the good things in life? The stock market index is also generally high and then even more is required for a higher level. So perhaps not wrong - to stay on the sidelines, watch and and learn and ponder?
I don't believe in that at all. With the left at the helm, inflation will pick up like never before, and then stocks are the only thing one should hold. And the talk about the elderly is nonsense and what some journalists write about to get clicks. There's no chance that the majority of stock market investors sell their entire holdings for "the good life".... Rather, they continue to leave this life with a cash pile that goes on to their children and grandchildren or possibly leaves some ongoing support to them. If one is so selfish as to spend their money solely on themselves when they selfishly had children without them getting to decide, I think one should be ashamed.- ·3.8.Isn't it a bit strange and quite common nowadays that companies that get raised price targets go down the same day and sometimes days after that !?
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2026 Q2 -tulosraportti
32 päivää sitten
‧35 min
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
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- ·14 t sittenACQUISITION WITHIN ONE YEAR??? Excuse me if I'm rambling about the company, but shouldn't Camurus be a perfect acquisition candidate? FluidCrystal is not just "a new formulation". It is a patented platform for long-acting drugs, where a subcutaneous injection forms a lipid-based depot that slowly releases the drug over days, weeks or months. It can also be combined with autoinjector/pens for self-administration. For me, it is so revolutionary given how many different patient groups need long-acting medications. I myself work on a psychosis ward and a large part of the patients stop taking their absolutely crucial medication to avoid, for example, auditory hallucinations. Camurus doesn't seem to be sitting around waiting to be acquired. They rather seem to think: "We can build on our own." And that's good for us shareholders, as the price tag for the company gets more and more expensive. The stumbling block, in that case, is probably Sandberg Development, which owns approximately 30.2% of Camurus. Regardless, I'm guessing there's a 50% chance the company will be acquired within a year, -What do you think? The big one for me is CAM2056. It's Camurus's own monthly depot of semaglutide. Camurus reports that Phase 1b showed positive effect and that a Phase 2b study is planned to start in the second half of 2026. What would FluidCrystal be worth if it were used on 5–10 major drugs? We shareholders, or at least I, feel that we own a part of a very interesting opportunity!! Lilly has practically said: -We have some of the world's most valuable drug candidates and we want to use Camurus's technology to make them long-acting. The company is growing, has strong profitability, 4.1 billion in cash, several products/programs, and a technology that has already received significant validation through Lilly. But why is it so shorted? My belief is that Camurus is considered too expensive: ....P/E (last 12 months): approx 54.5× Expected P/E for 2026: approx 39×....maybe they think: - Yes, the technology is fantastic. But first show clinical results, regulatory approval and real billion-dollar revenues!! CAM2056 entails enormous potential – but also enormous expectations. If Camurus succeeds with long-acting semaglutide, the value can become very large. But if the results do not meet expectations, the valuation can quickly compress. Deflate. It is precisely such binary situations that hedge funds like to trade around. It is also important to remember that FI's individual register does not show all positions below 0.5%, so the number of actual short sellers is greater than what can be seen directly. It is therefore a classic "high expectations vs. enormous optionality" stock. - What do you other owners think?
- ·1 päivä sittenNow it's starting to get really interesting. On July 17, Camurus announced that the FDA has accepted the resubmitted application for CAM2029/Oczyesa for acromegaly for review. In my opinion, this is the most important Q3 event. And Camurus has several things underway simultaneously: CAM2029/Oczyesa – USA: The FDA process is active again. SORENTO: phase 3 in polycystic liver disease, with important results expected in 2026. POSITANO/PLD: continued development. CAM2056: monthly depot of semaglutide. Lilly collaboration: Lilly has also exercised an option regarding amylin receptor agonists. And at the same time, the existing business is strong. Q2 2026 generated 702 MSEK in revenues, product sales increased 13 % and Brixadi royalties increased a full 42 %. Cash was 4.1 billion kronor. If CAM2029 succeeds in obtaining American approval and is then broadened to more indications, the company could achieve a completely different revenue profile. Camurus itself estimates that CAM2029 could potentially reach over 2 billion USD in peak sales across several indications. However, this is the company's own potential assessment, not a forecast I would take for granted. An American approval for Oczyesa could significantly change the perception of Camurus. If CAM2029 shows clear clinical effect in polycystic liver disease, the market will get further proof that the platform works in more large areas of use. And in fact, I think Q3 is more interesting than just the next quarterly report. Camurus has presentations on August 25, September 2, September 14 and September 17, and then the Q3 report will be released on November 5
- ·10.8.Yes. If you mean Camurus as an investment with approximately a 12-month horizon, I would primarily focus on clinical/regulatory risk versus the already strong commercial base. I have looked at the latest information from Q2 2026 and the company's pipeline. My brief conclusion I do not see Camurus as a company where the case stands or falls with a single clinical study. That is an important strength. The company already has commercial revenues from Buvidal and Brixadi royalties, over SEK 4 billion in cash, and reiterated its guidance for 2026 of SEK 2.6–2.9 billion in revenues and SEK 0.9–1.2 billion in operating profit. But the coming 12 months are unusually eventful, and the stock could become very sensitive to clinical/regulatory announcements. 1. Biggest opportunity: CAM2029/SORENTO This is, in my opinion, the most important clinical value driver. CAM2029 is in Phase 3 for GEP-NET, and Camurus expects the required number of PFS events to be reached during Q4 2026. Thus, we will likely get a significant data point within the next few months. Positive scenario: SORENTO shows clear effect. CAM2029 could become another commercially significant product. The market begins to value CAM2029 as a broader franchise rather than primarily acromegaly. The combination of GEP-NET + acromegaly + PLD would provide significantly greater potential. It is particularly interesting because Camurus has already shown positive data in PLD and has an ongoing extension and is considering the next development steps. The risk: SORENTO is still a real Phase 3 risk. Even if previous data and the drug's mechanism are encouraging, there is no guarantee that the primary endpoint will be statistically met or that the effect will be commercially attractive enough. Therefore, I would not fully value the entire GEP-NET value in a 12-month valuation before the results are known. 2. Oclaiz/Oczyesa – lower clinical risk, but high regulatory risk Here I think one should distinguish between clinical risk and regulatory/CMC risk. Oczyesa is already approved in EU/UK for acromegaly. The problem in the USA, however, has been the FDA process and manufacturing-related issues. The FDA's previous rejections have delayed the USA launch. The interesting thing is that Camurus now states that the outstanding FDA comments have been addressed and that the company expects a new regulatory update. My assessment: I see this as lower clinical risk than SORENTO, as the drug's clinical effect is already significantly more established. But I would not underestimate regulatory/manufacturing risk given the history. So it's not: "Does the drug work?" but rather: "Can Camurus get through the American regulatory/manufacturing process?" That is an important difference. 3. CAM2056 – potentially enormous opportunity, but high risk This is, in my opinion, the most asymmetric case. CAM2056 is Camurus' monthly depot of semaglutide. Phase 1b yielded positive results, and Camurus plans to start Phase 2b in the second half of 2026. If monthly semaglutide can truly provide competitive efficacy, safety, and above all, more convenient dosing, there is a very large commercial value. But here I would be cautious. The risks are significant: Phase 2b is not yet proven. Semaglutide is already extremely competitive. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have enormous resources. Camurus must show that monthly dosing provides a real clinical/commercial advantage. Manufacturing, device/autoinjector, and long-term safety must work. A good Phase 1b does not automatically mean a good Phase 2b. So I would value CAM2056 as an option, not as something to be taken for granted in today's fundamental valuation. At the same time, the Lilly collaboration is a very interesting quality stamp on the technology. Lilly also exercised its option in Q2 2026 to include amylin receptor agonists in the collaboration. My risk map for the coming 12 months Factor My assessment Significance Buvidal growth 🟢 Relatively low risk High Brixadi royalties 🟢 Relatively low risk High Oczyesa Europe 🟢 Relatively low risk Medium Oclaiz USA 🟡 Regulatory risk High CAM2029/SORENTO 🟠 Clinical risk Very high CAM2029 PLD 🟡 Medium Medium CAM2056 Phase 2b 🔴 High clinical risk Very high long-term potential Lilly/Gubra collaborations 🟢/🟡 Medium Financing 🟢 Low risk Low What I think the market can easily underestimate Camurus has actually become significantly less binary. Q2 2026 showed record-high product sales of SEK 528 million, 13 % higher than the previous year, and operating profit was SEK 293 million. Cash exceeded SEK 4 billion. This means that Camurus does not need to "hit" every pipeline project to survive. That is a big difference from a typical biotech company. But the big risk is the valuation Here I would be more cautious. If the stock already discounts: strong continued Buvidal growth, rapidly growing Brixadi, successful Oclaiz launch in the USA, positive SORENTO, strong CAM2056 development,
- ·5.8.Nowadays it feels like all listed companies have extra high demands if they are to rise and maintain the share price level. Furthermore, if there are higher taxes after the election, then perhaps some want to stay on the sidelines right now? Many older investors perhaps feel like selling and taking some for the good things in life? The stock market index is also generally high and then even more is required for a higher level. So perhaps not wrong - to stay on the sidelines, watch and and learn and ponder?I don't believe in that at all. With the left at the helm, inflation will pick up like never before, and then stocks are the only thing one should hold. And the talk about the elderly is nonsense and what some journalists write about to get clicks. There's no chance that the majority of stock market investors sell their entire holdings for "the good life".... Rather, they continue to leave this life with a cash pile that goes on to their children and grandchildren or possibly leaves some ongoing support to them. If one is so selfish as to spend their money solely on themselves when they selfishly had children without them getting to decide, I think one should be ashamed.
- ·3.8.Isn't it a bit strange and quite common nowadays that companies that get raised price targets go down the same day and sometimes days after that !?
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
Tarjoustasot
Ei dataa
Viimeisimmät kaupat
| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - | - |
Huomioi, että vaikka osakkeisiin säästäminen on pitkällä aikavälillä tuottanut hyvin, tulevasta tuotosta ei ole takeita. On olemassa riski, että et saa sijoittamiasi varoja takaisin.
Välittäjätilasto
Dataa ei löytynyt
Asiakkaat katsoivat myös
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q3 -tulosraportti 5.11. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 15.7. | ||
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 12.5. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 12.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 6.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 17.7.2025 |
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti
32 päivää sitten
‧35 min
Uutiset
Tämän sivun uutiset ja/tai sijoitussuositukset tai otteet niistä sekä niihin liittyvät linkit ovat mainitun tahon tuottamia ja toimittamia. Nordnet ei ole osallistunut materiaalin laatimiseen, eikä ole tarkistanut sen sisältöä tai tehnyt sisältöön muutoksia. Lue lisää sijoitussuosituksista.
Yhtiötapahtumat
Datan lähde: Quartr| Seuraava tapahtuma | |
|---|---|
2026 Q3 -tulosraportti 5.11. |
| Menneet tapahtumat | ||
|---|---|---|
2026 Q2 -tulosraportti 15.7. | ||
2026 Q1 -tulosraportti 12.5. | ||
2025 Q4 -tulosraportti 12.2. | ||
2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 6.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 17.7.2025 |
Foorumi
Liity keskusteluun Nordnet Socialissa
Kirjaudu
- ·14 t sittenACQUISITION WITHIN ONE YEAR??? Excuse me if I'm rambling about the company, but shouldn't Camurus be a perfect acquisition candidate? FluidCrystal is not just "a new formulation". It is a patented platform for long-acting drugs, where a subcutaneous injection forms a lipid-based depot that slowly releases the drug over days, weeks or months. It can also be combined with autoinjector/pens for self-administration. For me, it is so revolutionary given how many different patient groups need long-acting medications. I myself work on a psychosis ward and a large part of the patients stop taking their absolutely crucial medication to avoid, for example, auditory hallucinations. Camurus doesn't seem to be sitting around waiting to be acquired. They rather seem to think: "We can build on our own." And that's good for us shareholders, as the price tag for the company gets more and more expensive. The stumbling block, in that case, is probably Sandberg Development, which owns approximately 30.2% of Camurus. Regardless, I'm guessing there's a 50% chance the company will be acquired within a year, -What do you think? The big one for me is CAM2056. It's Camurus's own monthly depot of semaglutide. Camurus reports that Phase 1b showed positive effect and that a Phase 2b study is planned to start in the second half of 2026. What would FluidCrystal be worth if it were used on 5–10 major drugs? We shareholders, or at least I, feel that we own a part of a very interesting opportunity!! Lilly has practically said: -We have some of the world's most valuable drug candidates and we want to use Camurus's technology to make them long-acting. The company is growing, has strong profitability, 4.1 billion in cash, several products/programs, and a technology that has already received significant validation through Lilly. But why is it so shorted? My belief is that Camurus is considered too expensive: ....P/E (last 12 months): approx 54.5× Expected P/E for 2026: approx 39×....maybe they think: - Yes, the technology is fantastic. But first show clinical results, regulatory approval and real billion-dollar revenues!! CAM2056 entails enormous potential – but also enormous expectations. If Camurus succeeds with long-acting semaglutide, the value can become very large. But if the results do not meet expectations, the valuation can quickly compress. Deflate. It is precisely such binary situations that hedge funds like to trade around. It is also important to remember that FI's individual register does not show all positions below 0.5%, so the number of actual short sellers is greater than what can be seen directly. It is therefore a classic "high expectations vs. enormous optionality" stock. - What do you other owners think?
- ·1 päivä sittenNow it's starting to get really interesting. On July 17, Camurus announced that the FDA has accepted the resubmitted application for CAM2029/Oczyesa for acromegaly for review. In my opinion, this is the most important Q3 event. And Camurus has several things underway simultaneously: CAM2029/Oczyesa – USA: The FDA process is active again. SORENTO: phase 3 in polycystic liver disease, with important results expected in 2026. POSITANO/PLD: continued development. CAM2056: monthly depot of semaglutide. Lilly collaboration: Lilly has also exercised an option regarding amylin receptor agonists. And at the same time, the existing business is strong. Q2 2026 generated 702 MSEK in revenues, product sales increased 13 % and Brixadi royalties increased a full 42 %. Cash was 4.1 billion kronor. If CAM2029 succeeds in obtaining American approval and is then broadened to more indications, the company could achieve a completely different revenue profile. Camurus itself estimates that CAM2029 could potentially reach over 2 billion USD in peak sales across several indications. However, this is the company's own potential assessment, not a forecast I would take for granted. An American approval for Oczyesa could significantly change the perception of Camurus. If CAM2029 shows clear clinical effect in polycystic liver disease, the market will get further proof that the platform works in more large areas of use. And in fact, I think Q3 is more interesting than just the next quarterly report. Camurus has presentations on August 25, September 2, September 14 and September 17, and then the Q3 report will be released on November 5
- ·10.8.Yes. If you mean Camurus as an investment with approximately a 12-month horizon, I would primarily focus on clinical/regulatory risk versus the already strong commercial base. I have looked at the latest information from Q2 2026 and the company's pipeline. My brief conclusion I do not see Camurus as a company where the case stands or falls with a single clinical study. That is an important strength. The company already has commercial revenues from Buvidal and Brixadi royalties, over SEK 4 billion in cash, and reiterated its guidance for 2026 of SEK 2.6–2.9 billion in revenues and SEK 0.9–1.2 billion in operating profit. But the coming 12 months are unusually eventful, and the stock could become very sensitive to clinical/regulatory announcements. 1. Biggest opportunity: CAM2029/SORENTO This is, in my opinion, the most important clinical value driver. CAM2029 is in Phase 3 for GEP-NET, and Camurus expects the required number of PFS events to be reached during Q4 2026. Thus, we will likely get a significant data point within the next few months. Positive scenario: SORENTO shows clear effect. CAM2029 could become another commercially significant product. The market begins to value CAM2029 as a broader franchise rather than primarily acromegaly. The combination of GEP-NET + acromegaly + PLD would provide significantly greater potential. It is particularly interesting because Camurus has already shown positive data in PLD and has an ongoing extension and is considering the next development steps. The risk: SORENTO is still a real Phase 3 risk. Even if previous data and the drug's mechanism are encouraging, there is no guarantee that the primary endpoint will be statistically met or that the effect will be commercially attractive enough. Therefore, I would not fully value the entire GEP-NET value in a 12-month valuation before the results are known. 2. Oclaiz/Oczyesa – lower clinical risk, but high regulatory risk Here I think one should distinguish between clinical risk and regulatory/CMC risk. Oczyesa is already approved in EU/UK for acromegaly. The problem in the USA, however, has been the FDA process and manufacturing-related issues. The FDA's previous rejections have delayed the USA launch. The interesting thing is that Camurus now states that the outstanding FDA comments have been addressed and that the company expects a new regulatory update. My assessment: I see this as lower clinical risk than SORENTO, as the drug's clinical effect is already significantly more established. But I would not underestimate regulatory/manufacturing risk given the history. So it's not: "Does the drug work?" but rather: "Can Camurus get through the American regulatory/manufacturing process?" That is an important difference. 3. CAM2056 – potentially enormous opportunity, but high risk This is, in my opinion, the most asymmetric case. CAM2056 is Camurus' monthly depot of semaglutide. Phase 1b yielded positive results, and Camurus plans to start Phase 2b in the second half of 2026. If monthly semaglutide can truly provide competitive efficacy, safety, and above all, more convenient dosing, there is a very large commercial value. But here I would be cautious. The risks are significant: Phase 2b is not yet proven. Semaglutide is already extremely competitive. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have enormous resources. Camurus must show that monthly dosing provides a real clinical/commercial advantage. Manufacturing, device/autoinjector, and long-term safety must work. A good Phase 1b does not automatically mean a good Phase 2b. So I would value CAM2056 as an option, not as something to be taken for granted in today's fundamental valuation. At the same time, the Lilly collaboration is a very interesting quality stamp on the technology. Lilly also exercised its option in Q2 2026 to include amylin receptor agonists in the collaboration. My risk map for the coming 12 months Factor My assessment Significance Buvidal growth 🟢 Relatively low risk High Brixadi royalties 🟢 Relatively low risk High Oczyesa Europe 🟢 Relatively low risk Medium Oclaiz USA 🟡 Regulatory risk High CAM2029/SORENTO 🟠 Clinical risk Very high CAM2029 PLD 🟡 Medium Medium CAM2056 Phase 2b 🔴 High clinical risk Very high long-term potential Lilly/Gubra collaborations 🟢/🟡 Medium Financing 🟢 Low risk Low What I think the market can easily underestimate Camurus has actually become significantly less binary. Q2 2026 showed record-high product sales of SEK 528 million, 13 % higher than the previous year, and operating profit was SEK 293 million. Cash exceeded SEK 4 billion. This means that Camurus does not need to "hit" every pipeline project to survive. That is a big difference from a typical biotech company. But the big risk is the valuation Here I would be more cautious. If the stock already discounts: strong continued Buvidal growth, rapidly growing Brixadi, successful Oclaiz launch in the USA, positive SORENTO, strong CAM2056 development,
- ·5.8.Nowadays it feels like all listed companies have extra high demands if they are to rise and maintain the share price level. Furthermore, if there are higher taxes after the election, then perhaps some want to stay on the sidelines right now? Many older investors perhaps feel like selling and taking some for the good things in life? The stock market index is also generally high and then even more is required for a higher level. So perhaps not wrong - to stay on the sidelines, watch and and learn and ponder?I don't believe in that at all. With the left at the helm, inflation will pick up like never before, and then stocks are the only thing one should hold. And the talk about the elderly is nonsense and what some journalists write about to get clicks. There's no chance that the majority of stock market investors sell their entire holdings for "the good life".... Rather, they continue to leave this life with a cash pile that goes on to their children and grandchildren or possibly leaves some ongoing support to them. If one is so selfish as to spend their money solely on themselves when they selfishly had children without them getting to decide, I think one should be ashamed.
- ·3.8.Isn't it a bit strange and quite common nowadays that companies that get raised price targets go down the same day and sometimes days after that !?
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