2025 Q3 -tulosraportti
178 päivää sittenTarjoustasot
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2025 Q3 -tulosraportti 24.11.2025 | ||
2025 Q2 -tulosraportti 17.7.2025 | ||
2024 Q3 -tulosraportti 7.11.2024 | ||
2023 Q4 -tulosraportti 15.5.2024 | ||
2023 Q3 -tulosraportti 20.11.2023 |
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·11.5.Cantourage Q1-2026: Profitability breaks through – and a new analyst initiation raises the price target to the highest level to date (Sources: Cantourage Group SE company announcement, 11 May 2026; First Berlin Equity Research initiation of coverage, 7 May 2026) Q1-2026 Highlights – quality over volume - Revenue: EUR 20.6 million (+11.0 % q/q vs. Q4 2025) - EBITDA: EUR 2.2 million with an EBITDA margin of 10.6 % – significant improvement compared to previous quarters - Net cash position: EUR 8.8 million – solid financial platform, still debt-free - Geographical distribution: Germany 51.5 %, UK 41.3 %, Poland 7.3 % The central point in this report is the margin development. Throughout 2025, Cantourage has streamlined its product portfolio towards premium segments and higher-margin categories, and the effect is now unequivocally visible in the figures. The EBITDA margin of 10.6 % in Q1 is a significant improvement from 6.2 % for full 2025 and documents that the company has moved from pure top-line scaling to a phase of real operational leverage. This is qualitative growth, not quantitative. The UK development is the second big message. With 41.3 % of the group's revenue, the United Kingdom is now almost on par with Germany, and as management itself notes, the UK business contributes disproportionately to the group's earnings performance – i.e., with a higher margin than the group as a whole. This is precisely the pan-European diversification we have talked about, which is materializing in the figures. New initiation from First Berlin Equity Research – EUR 11 price target On 7 May 2026 – the day before the Q1 figures were published – First Berlin Equity Research initiated coverage of Cantourage with a BUY recommendation and a price target of EUR 11.00, corresponding to an upside of 76.8 % from the level at the time of initiation (EUR 6.22). This is the highest price target among analyst houses to date and surpasses both NuWays (EUR 10) and Montega (EUR 8-10). The interesting thing is that First Berlin did not have the Q1 figures at hand when they set EUR 11 as the target. With today's Q1 print (EBITDA margin 10.6 % in Q1 against First Berlin's 2026 estimate of 11.5 %), Cantourage is already ahead of the assumptions behind the valuation. This fundamentally provides upside risk to both price targets and estimates, not the opposite. First Berlin's central theses are worth highlighting, as they precisely overlap with our own analysis: 01) "More than a German flower story" – The market underestimates the company's pan-European platform and continues to price it as a pure regulatory binary in the German market. 02) Capital-efficient, scalable, debt-free – The DCF model assumes an 80 % equity ratio, 11.1 % WACC, 2 % terminal growth, and 14.8 % terminal EBIT margin. With these assumptions, the fair value lands at EUR 142 million or EUR 11.00 per share. 03) Margin expansion is the next phase – First Berlin expects the EBITDA margin to exceed 10 % already in 2026 (as already demonstrated now in Q1-2026), and that the gross margin rebounds from 25.1 % (2025E) to 30.1 % (2026E) and further up towards 33 % over time. Valuation check – current price (before open: market cap approx. EUR 77.3 million) With the Q1 figures and First Berlin's initiation, we now have three analyst houses with a consistent BUY recommendation: First Berlin (initiation, 7 May 2026) sets the price target at EUR 11.00 – an upside of approx. +77 % from the current level. NuWays AG (9 March 2026) has a price target of EUR 10.00, corresponding to an upside of approx. +61 %. Montega AG (9 March 2026) is at EUR 8-10, corresponding to an upside of approx. +29-61 %. Our own estimate is EUR 10-12 per share, corresponding to an upside of approx. +61-93 % from today's level. On the Sanity multiple (~4.2x EV/Sales), Cantourage's FY25 revenue of EUR 92.8 million would justify an EV of approx. EUR 390 million against the current market cap of EUR 77.3 million. Even with appropriate haircuts, the gap between the peer multiple and current pricing is still significant. Sources: - Cantourage Group SE Q1-2026 company announcement, 11 May 2026, 08:00 CET - First Berlin Equity Research, "Cantourage Group SE – More Than A German Flower Story", initiation of coverage, 7 May 2026 (BUY, price target EUR 11.00) - NuWays AG research update on Cantourage, 9 March 2026 (BUY, price target EUR 10.00) - Montega AG research update on Cantourage, 9 March 2026 (BUY, price target EUR 8-10) - Share price Cantourage Group SE (HIGH GR / ISIN DE000A3DSV01), Frankfurt Stock Exchange (market cap approx. EUR 77.3 million before open)·11.5.At the earnings call, it doesn't sound unlikely that management indirectly signals an expectation of an EBIT in the range of EUR 10 million for 2026 (no official guidance is given). For the sake of clarity, it is worth noting that EBIT and EBITDA at Cantourage are practically very close to each other. The company is debt-free (no significant interest expenses) and has an asset-light business model without heavy production facilities or large tangible assets to depreciate. In other words: The underlying operating performance is effectively the same (close to), regardless of whether you look at EBITDA or EBIT. In comparison, First Berlin estimates EUR 7.1 million in EBIT for 2026E. If Cantourage actually lands at EUR 10 million, we are talking about a 40 % overshoot of consensus – and that will undoubtedly trigger upward revisions of both price targets and estimates over the coming quarters. Such a result for 2026 is, in our eyes, very positive. It speaks directly to the case we have built: A solid and healthy growth business where the top line continues to grow nicely, while margins and the bottom line shift into a completely different league. This is a combination rarely found in the small/mid-cap segment – and certainly not in a market that is still associated with so much noise and misunderstanding as the European medical cannabis market. In other words, there are a lot of goodies in this paper, both fundamentally, valuation-wise, and strategically.- ·7.5.Received this morning: "We are pleased to invite you to the Q1 2026 earnings call. During the event, Philip Schetter (CEO) and Monique Jaqqam (CFO) will provide an update on the company’s performance and key developments during the first three months of 2026. Participants will have the opportunity to ask questions and discuss opportunities, challenges, and trends in the rapidly evolving medical cannabis sector. We look forward to your participation. Date: May 11, 2026 Time: 9:00 am (CET) Duration: 1 hour Language: English" Exciting what the first 3 months of the year have brought for Cantourage Group.
- ·1.5.The M&A cycle in the European medical cannabis market is accelerating – and it significantly supports the Cantourage case. With Curaleaf's full acquisition of Four 20 Pharma on April 30, 2026, we have now seen two major M&A events in the European cannabis market in less than three months. It's worth noting, because it directly impacts the Cantourage case and the valuation discussion we've had here in the thread. The two transactions: 01) February 18, 2026 (closed April 15, 2026): Organigram (BAT-backed) → Sanity Group (Germany). Up to EUR 250 million incl. earnouts (EUR 113.4 million upfront + EUR 113.8 million earnout). Sanity had EUR 60 million revenue in 2025 and ~#2 market share in Germany. Implicit ~4.2x EV/Sales (cf. NuWays' research update of March 9, 2026). Wholesale + vertical platform play. 02) April 30, 2026: Curaleaf → Four 20 Pharma (Germany). Full acquisition after the original 55% agreement from 2022 (EUR 20 million for the first 55%). Amount for the remaining 45% not disclosed, but the structure speaks for itself: Curaleaf has waited four years to gain full control over an EU-GMP/GDP-licensed German producer with its own brand (420NATURAL). What the pattern tells us: Firstly, it has become unequivocal that the large international operators – Curaleaf and Organigram (with BAT as anchor) – are paying real money for access to EU-GMP/GDP-licensed German players. It is no longer a hypothesis; it is now observable in two deals in less than three months, and the BAT money through Organigram shows that tobacco capital is actively financing European consolidation – with patience and deep pockets. Secondly – and this is important for the Cantourage case – NuWays precisely points out that Cantourage's vertically integrated direct-to-pharmacy model structurally commands higher margins than Sanity's wholesale-heavy approach, which merely acts as an intermediary in the value chain. Sanity was traded at ~4.2x EV/Sales as a pure wholesale player. Cantourage, in comparison, delivered EUR 92.8 million in FY25 revenue (+82.3% y/y) and record EBITDA of EUR 5.7 million according to the company's own disclosure in April 2026 – and remains one of Germany's largest medical cannabis players with a significant lead over other players. It is a pan-European scale that neither Sanity nor Four 20 has in the same way. Each of the two M&A transactions precisely supports the Cantourage case: The international buyers are willing to pay solid multiples for players who – from a fundamental scale and positioning perspective – are less well-positioned than Cantourage itself. Valuation check at today's price (EUR 5.76 per share as of May 1, 2026, Xetra – market cap approx. EUR 72.8 million): NuWays AG price target: EUR 10 → upside approx. +74 % Montega AG price target: EUR 8-10 → upside approx. +39-74 % Our own estimate: EUR 10-12 → upside approx. +74-108 % Based on the Sanity multiple alone (~4.2x EV/Sales), Cantourage's FY25 revenue of EUR 92.8 million would justify an EV of approx. EUR 390 million – compared to a current market cap of approx. EUR 72.8 million. Even with haircuts for liquidity, free float, and the ongoing margin compression in the low-price segment in Germany, the gap between the peer multiple and Cantourage's current valuation remains significant. The consequence for our position: We have a Cantourage position from before, and the latest analyst coverage from both NuWays AG (BUY, price target EUR 10) and Montega AG (BUY, price target EUR 8-10), both published March 9, 2026, continues to indicate significant upside from today's level. With the Curaleaf/Four 20 deal as a second data point in the European M&A cycle within a short time, we believe that: 01) The floor under the Cantourage multiple is strengthened – the Sanity precedent is now confirmed by another transaction that validates EU-GMP/GDP-licensed German players as strategic targets. 02) The M&A optionality in Cantourage itself increases – not as our base case, but as a real tail upside. The large operators are actively acquiring in Germany, Cantourage is one of the few listed assets with the right profile and scale, and liquidity plus regulatory anchoring makes it a natural focal point. 03) Even without an M&A event, repricing to the peer multiple alone is sufficient to justify the price targets from NuWays/Montega – and potentially higher. We maintain our Cantourage position and see the continued M&A consolidation in the market as confirmation that both fundamental business development and the structural valuation opportunity point in the same direction.·1.5. · MuokattuSources (most reliable primary and secondary sources): - Curaleaf Inc. IR-release, 30. April 2026 (primary source): https://ir.curaleaf.com/2026-04-30-Curaleaf-Completes-Buyout-of-Remaining-Stake-in-Germanys-Four-20-Pharma - Organigram Global Inc. press release, 18. February 2026 (primary source, BusinessWire): https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260218837720/en/ - NuWays AG research update on Cantourage, 9. March 2026 (BUY, price target EUR 10) - Montega AG research update on Cantourage, 9. March 2026 (BUY, price target EUR 8-10) - Share price Cantourage Group SE (HIGH / HIGHG), Xetra, as of 1. May 2026: EUR 5.76 (market cap approx. EUR 72.8 million)
- ·17.3.Received just this morning below. Very positive, and truly a growth case, both top- and bottom-line. ______________ "Cantourage Group SE / Key word(s): Annual Results/Preliminary Results Cantourage Group SE publishes preliminary figures for 2025 – Revenue rises to EUR 92.8 million 17.03.2026 CET/CEST Cantourage Group SE (ISIN: DE000A3DSV01) today published preliminary consolidated figures for the 2025 financial year. During the reporting period, the company achieved a significant increase in both revenue and earnings, thereby continuing its dynamic growth trajectory as one of the leading European companies in the field of medical cannabis. Group revenue increased to EUR 92.8 million in the 2025 financial year (previous year: EUR 50.9 million), representing growth of 82.3% compared to the previous year. Preliminary EBITDA rose to EUR 5.7 million (previous year: EUR 3.8 million). International expansion supports sustainable earnings quality Strategic expansion into selected core European markets is increasingly contributing to improved revenue and earnings. Business in the United Kingdom continued to develop positively and accounted for more than 20% of total group revenue in the 2025 financial year. The positioning of Cantourage Group SE as a pan-European pharmaceutical company is showing increasingly positive effects. Economies of scale, optimized supply chains, and a diversified market presence are stabilizing operational development. “The European medical cannabis market is increasingly entering a new phase of growth. With our scalable sourcing and distribution platform, exclusive supplier partnerships, and regulatory expertise, we are ideally positioned to benefit from this development. Our focus is on meeting rising demand in our core markets, further expanding our capacities, and establishing Cantourage as one of the leading companies in all relevant European medical markets,” explains Philip Schetter, CEO of Cantourage Group SE."
- ·11.3.CANTOURAGE GROUP SE In light of the latest developments in the European cannabis industry, both NuWays and Montega, in connection with their coverage of Cantourage Group, have chosen to upgrade their price targets, which now lie in the range of EUR 8,00-10,00 per share. This reflects a potential price increase of approx. 70-90 % from the current level. The analysis coverage fully aligns with my own observations - and is possibly even a bit conservative compared to my personal estimate of EUR 10,00-12,00 per share at the current time. The analyses can be found at the following links: NuWays AG (published on 9. March 2026): https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/6640f5c21aec76e6d2026142/69afd9c9f30a9bf33e547314_Cantourage_Update.pdf Montega AG (published on 9. March 2026): https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/6640f5c21aec76e6d2026142/69aef696a4cfffe001fb1002_af05aa5c-e8db-4d6d-adda-ed4eb6810d16.pdf
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2025 Q3 -tulosraportti
178 päivää sittenUutiset
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- ·11.5.Cantourage Q1-2026: Profitability breaks through – and a new analyst initiation raises the price target to the highest level to date (Sources: Cantourage Group SE company announcement, 11 May 2026; First Berlin Equity Research initiation of coverage, 7 May 2026) Q1-2026 Highlights – quality over volume - Revenue: EUR 20.6 million (+11.0 % q/q vs. Q4 2025) - EBITDA: EUR 2.2 million with an EBITDA margin of 10.6 % – significant improvement compared to previous quarters - Net cash position: EUR 8.8 million – solid financial platform, still debt-free - Geographical distribution: Germany 51.5 %, UK 41.3 %, Poland 7.3 % The central point in this report is the margin development. Throughout 2025, Cantourage has streamlined its product portfolio towards premium segments and higher-margin categories, and the effect is now unequivocally visible in the figures. The EBITDA margin of 10.6 % in Q1 is a significant improvement from 6.2 % for full 2025 and documents that the company has moved from pure top-line scaling to a phase of real operational leverage. This is qualitative growth, not quantitative. The UK development is the second big message. With 41.3 % of the group's revenue, the United Kingdom is now almost on par with Germany, and as management itself notes, the UK business contributes disproportionately to the group's earnings performance – i.e., with a higher margin than the group as a whole. This is precisely the pan-European diversification we have talked about, which is materializing in the figures. New initiation from First Berlin Equity Research – EUR 11 price target On 7 May 2026 – the day before the Q1 figures were published – First Berlin Equity Research initiated coverage of Cantourage with a BUY recommendation and a price target of EUR 11.00, corresponding to an upside of 76.8 % from the level at the time of initiation (EUR 6.22). This is the highest price target among analyst houses to date and surpasses both NuWays (EUR 10) and Montega (EUR 8-10). The interesting thing is that First Berlin did not have the Q1 figures at hand when they set EUR 11 as the target. With today's Q1 print (EBITDA margin 10.6 % in Q1 against First Berlin's 2026 estimate of 11.5 %), Cantourage is already ahead of the assumptions behind the valuation. This fundamentally provides upside risk to both price targets and estimates, not the opposite. First Berlin's central theses are worth highlighting, as they precisely overlap with our own analysis: 01) "More than a German flower story" – The market underestimates the company's pan-European platform and continues to price it as a pure regulatory binary in the German market. 02) Capital-efficient, scalable, debt-free – The DCF model assumes an 80 % equity ratio, 11.1 % WACC, 2 % terminal growth, and 14.8 % terminal EBIT margin. With these assumptions, the fair value lands at EUR 142 million or EUR 11.00 per share. 03) Margin expansion is the next phase – First Berlin expects the EBITDA margin to exceed 10 % already in 2026 (as already demonstrated now in Q1-2026), and that the gross margin rebounds from 25.1 % (2025E) to 30.1 % (2026E) and further up towards 33 % over time. Valuation check – current price (before open: market cap approx. EUR 77.3 million) With the Q1 figures and First Berlin's initiation, we now have three analyst houses with a consistent BUY recommendation: First Berlin (initiation, 7 May 2026) sets the price target at EUR 11.00 – an upside of approx. +77 % from the current level. NuWays AG (9 March 2026) has a price target of EUR 10.00, corresponding to an upside of approx. +61 %. Montega AG (9 March 2026) is at EUR 8-10, corresponding to an upside of approx. +29-61 %. Our own estimate is EUR 10-12 per share, corresponding to an upside of approx. +61-93 % from today's level. On the Sanity multiple (~4.2x EV/Sales), Cantourage's FY25 revenue of EUR 92.8 million would justify an EV of approx. EUR 390 million against the current market cap of EUR 77.3 million. Even with appropriate haircuts, the gap between the peer multiple and current pricing is still significant. Sources: - Cantourage Group SE Q1-2026 company announcement, 11 May 2026, 08:00 CET - First Berlin Equity Research, "Cantourage Group SE – More Than A German Flower Story", initiation of coverage, 7 May 2026 (BUY, price target EUR 11.00) - NuWays AG research update on Cantourage, 9 March 2026 (BUY, price target EUR 10.00) - Montega AG research update on Cantourage, 9 March 2026 (BUY, price target EUR 8-10) - Share price Cantourage Group SE (HIGH GR / ISIN DE000A3DSV01), Frankfurt Stock Exchange (market cap approx. EUR 77.3 million before open)·11.5.At the earnings call, it doesn't sound unlikely that management indirectly signals an expectation of an EBIT in the range of EUR 10 million for 2026 (no official guidance is given). For the sake of clarity, it is worth noting that EBIT and EBITDA at Cantourage are practically very close to each other. The company is debt-free (no significant interest expenses) and has an asset-light business model without heavy production facilities or large tangible assets to depreciate. In other words: The underlying operating performance is effectively the same (close to), regardless of whether you look at EBITDA or EBIT. In comparison, First Berlin estimates EUR 7.1 million in EBIT for 2026E. If Cantourage actually lands at EUR 10 million, we are talking about a 40 % overshoot of consensus – and that will undoubtedly trigger upward revisions of both price targets and estimates over the coming quarters. Such a result for 2026 is, in our eyes, very positive. It speaks directly to the case we have built: A solid and healthy growth business where the top line continues to grow nicely, while margins and the bottom line shift into a completely different league. This is a combination rarely found in the small/mid-cap segment – and certainly not in a market that is still associated with so much noise and misunderstanding as the European medical cannabis market. In other words, there are a lot of goodies in this paper, both fundamentally, valuation-wise, and strategically.
- ·7.5.Received this morning: "We are pleased to invite you to the Q1 2026 earnings call. During the event, Philip Schetter (CEO) and Monique Jaqqam (CFO) will provide an update on the company’s performance and key developments during the first three months of 2026. Participants will have the opportunity to ask questions and discuss opportunities, challenges, and trends in the rapidly evolving medical cannabis sector. We look forward to your participation. Date: May 11, 2026 Time: 9:00 am (CET) Duration: 1 hour Language: English" Exciting what the first 3 months of the year have brought for Cantourage Group.
- ·1.5.The M&A cycle in the European medical cannabis market is accelerating – and it significantly supports the Cantourage case. With Curaleaf's full acquisition of Four 20 Pharma on April 30, 2026, we have now seen two major M&A events in the European cannabis market in less than three months. It's worth noting, because it directly impacts the Cantourage case and the valuation discussion we've had here in the thread. The two transactions: 01) February 18, 2026 (closed April 15, 2026): Organigram (BAT-backed) → Sanity Group (Germany). Up to EUR 250 million incl. earnouts (EUR 113.4 million upfront + EUR 113.8 million earnout). Sanity had EUR 60 million revenue in 2025 and ~#2 market share in Germany. Implicit ~4.2x EV/Sales (cf. NuWays' research update of March 9, 2026). Wholesale + vertical platform play. 02) April 30, 2026: Curaleaf → Four 20 Pharma (Germany). Full acquisition after the original 55% agreement from 2022 (EUR 20 million for the first 55%). Amount for the remaining 45% not disclosed, but the structure speaks for itself: Curaleaf has waited four years to gain full control over an EU-GMP/GDP-licensed German producer with its own brand (420NATURAL). What the pattern tells us: Firstly, it has become unequivocal that the large international operators – Curaleaf and Organigram (with BAT as anchor) – are paying real money for access to EU-GMP/GDP-licensed German players. It is no longer a hypothesis; it is now observable in two deals in less than three months, and the BAT money through Organigram shows that tobacco capital is actively financing European consolidation – with patience and deep pockets. Secondly – and this is important for the Cantourage case – NuWays precisely points out that Cantourage's vertically integrated direct-to-pharmacy model structurally commands higher margins than Sanity's wholesale-heavy approach, which merely acts as an intermediary in the value chain. Sanity was traded at ~4.2x EV/Sales as a pure wholesale player. Cantourage, in comparison, delivered EUR 92.8 million in FY25 revenue (+82.3% y/y) and record EBITDA of EUR 5.7 million according to the company's own disclosure in April 2026 – and remains one of Germany's largest medical cannabis players with a significant lead over other players. It is a pan-European scale that neither Sanity nor Four 20 has in the same way. Each of the two M&A transactions precisely supports the Cantourage case: The international buyers are willing to pay solid multiples for players who – from a fundamental scale and positioning perspective – are less well-positioned than Cantourage itself. Valuation check at today's price (EUR 5.76 per share as of May 1, 2026, Xetra – market cap approx. EUR 72.8 million): NuWays AG price target: EUR 10 → upside approx. +74 % Montega AG price target: EUR 8-10 → upside approx. +39-74 % Our own estimate: EUR 10-12 → upside approx. +74-108 % Based on the Sanity multiple alone (~4.2x EV/Sales), Cantourage's FY25 revenue of EUR 92.8 million would justify an EV of approx. EUR 390 million – compared to a current market cap of approx. EUR 72.8 million. Even with haircuts for liquidity, free float, and the ongoing margin compression in the low-price segment in Germany, the gap between the peer multiple and Cantourage's current valuation remains significant. The consequence for our position: We have a Cantourage position from before, and the latest analyst coverage from both NuWays AG (BUY, price target EUR 10) and Montega AG (BUY, price target EUR 8-10), both published March 9, 2026, continues to indicate significant upside from today's level. With the Curaleaf/Four 20 deal as a second data point in the European M&A cycle within a short time, we believe that: 01) The floor under the Cantourage multiple is strengthened – the Sanity precedent is now confirmed by another transaction that validates EU-GMP/GDP-licensed German players as strategic targets. 02) The M&A optionality in Cantourage itself increases – not as our base case, but as a real tail upside. The large operators are actively acquiring in Germany, Cantourage is one of the few listed assets with the right profile and scale, and liquidity plus regulatory anchoring makes it a natural focal point. 03) Even without an M&A event, repricing to the peer multiple alone is sufficient to justify the price targets from NuWays/Montega – and potentially higher. We maintain our Cantourage position and see the continued M&A consolidation in the market as confirmation that both fundamental business development and the structural valuation opportunity point in the same direction.·1.5. · MuokattuSources (most reliable primary and secondary sources): - Curaleaf Inc. IR-release, 30. April 2026 (primary source): https://ir.curaleaf.com/2026-04-30-Curaleaf-Completes-Buyout-of-Remaining-Stake-in-Germanys-Four-20-Pharma - Organigram Global Inc. press release, 18. February 2026 (primary source, BusinessWire): https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260218837720/en/ - NuWays AG research update on Cantourage, 9. March 2026 (BUY, price target EUR 10) - Montega AG research update on Cantourage, 9. March 2026 (BUY, price target EUR 8-10) - Share price Cantourage Group SE (HIGH / HIGHG), Xetra, as of 1. May 2026: EUR 5.76 (market cap approx. EUR 72.8 million)
- ·17.3.Received just this morning below. Very positive, and truly a growth case, both top- and bottom-line. ______________ "Cantourage Group SE / Key word(s): Annual Results/Preliminary Results Cantourage Group SE publishes preliminary figures for 2025 – Revenue rises to EUR 92.8 million 17.03.2026 CET/CEST Cantourage Group SE (ISIN: DE000A3DSV01) today published preliminary consolidated figures for the 2025 financial year. During the reporting period, the company achieved a significant increase in both revenue and earnings, thereby continuing its dynamic growth trajectory as one of the leading European companies in the field of medical cannabis. Group revenue increased to EUR 92.8 million in the 2025 financial year (previous year: EUR 50.9 million), representing growth of 82.3% compared to the previous year. Preliminary EBITDA rose to EUR 5.7 million (previous year: EUR 3.8 million). International expansion supports sustainable earnings quality Strategic expansion into selected core European markets is increasingly contributing to improved revenue and earnings. Business in the United Kingdom continued to develop positively and accounted for more than 20% of total group revenue in the 2025 financial year. The positioning of Cantourage Group SE as a pan-European pharmaceutical company is showing increasingly positive effects. Economies of scale, optimized supply chains, and a diversified market presence are stabilizing operational development. “The European medical cannabis market is increasingly entering a new phase of growth. With our scalable sourcing and distribution platform, exclusive supplier partnerships, and regulatory expertise, we are ideally positioned to benefit from this development. Our focus is on meeting rising demand in our core markets, further expanding our capacities, and establishing Cantourage as one of the leading companies in all relevant European medical markets,” explains Philip Schetter, CEO of Cantourage Group SE."
- ·11.3.CANTOURAGE GROUP SE In light of the latest developments in the European cannabis industry, both NuWays and Montega, in connection with their coverage of Cantourage Group, have chosen to upgrade their price targets, which now lie in the range of EUR 8,00-10,00 per share. This reflects a potential price increase of approx. 70-90 % from the current level. The analysis coverage fully aligns with my own observations - and is possibly even a bit conservative compared to my personal estimate of EUR 10,00-12,00 per share at the current time. The analyses can be found at the following links: NuWays AG (published on 9. March 2026): https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/6640f5c21aec76e6d2026142/69afd9c9f30a9bf33e547314_Cantourage_Update.pdf Montega AG (published on 9. March 2026): https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/6640f5c21aec76e6d2026142/69aef696a4cfffe001fb1002_af05aa5c-e8db-4d6d-adda-ed4eb6810d16.pdf
Yllä olevat kommentit ovat peräisin Nordnetin sosiaalisen verkoston Nordnet Socialin käyttäjiltä, eikä niitä ole muokattu eikä Nordnet ole tarkastanut niitä etukäteen. Ne eivät tarkoita, että Nordnet tarjoaisi sijoitusneuvoja tai sijoitussuosituksia. Nordnet ei ota vastuuta kommenteista.
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| Aika | Hinta | Määrä | Ostaja | Myyjä |
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- ·11.5.Cantourage Q1-2026: Profitability breaks through – and a new analyst initiation raises the price target to the highest level to date (Sources: Cantourage Group SE company announcement, 11 May 2026; First Berlin Equity Research initiation of coverage, 7 May 2026) Q1-2026 Highlights – quality over volume - Revenue: EUR 20.6 million (+11.0 % q/q vs. Q4 2025) - EBITDA: EUR 2.2 million with an EBITDA margin of 10.6 % – significant improvement compared to previous quarters - Net cash position: EUR 8.8 million – solid financial platform, still debt-free - Geographical distribution: Germany 51.5 %, UK 41.3 %, Poland 7.3 % The central point in this report is the margin development. Throughout 2025, Cantourage has streamlined its product portfolio towards premium segments and higher-margin categories, and the effect is now unequivocally visible in the figures. The EBITDA margin of 10.6 % in Q1 is a significant improvement from 6.2 % for full 2025 and documents that the company has moved from pure top-line scaling to a phase of real operational leverage. This is qualitative growth, not quantitative. The UK development is the second big message. With 41.3 % of the group's revenue, the United Kingdom is now almost on par with Germany, and as management itself notes, the UK business contributes disproportionately to the group's earnings performance – i.e., with a higher margin than the group as a whole. This is precisely the pan-European diversification we have talked about, which is materializing in the figures. New initiation from First Berlin Equity Research – EUR 11 price target On 7 May 2026 – the day before the Q1 figures were published – First Berlin Equity Research initiated coverage of Cantourage with a BUY recommendation and a price target of EUR 11.00, corresponding to an upside of 76.8 % from the level at the time of initiation (EUR 6.22). This is the highest price target among analyst houses to date and surpasses both NuWays (EUR 10) and Montega (EUR 8-10). The interesting thing is that First Berlin did not have the Q1 figures at hand when they set EUR 11 as the target. With today's Q1 print (EBITDA margin 10.6 % in Q1 against First Berlin's 2026 estimate of 11.5 %), Cantourage is already ahead of the assumptions behind the valuation. This fundamentally provides upside risk to both price targets and estimates, not the opposite. First Berlin's central theses are worth highlighting, as they precisely overlap with our own analysis: 01) "More than a German flower story" – The market underestimates the company's pan-European platform and continues to price it as a pure regulatory binary in the German market. 02) Capital-efficient, scalable, debt-free – The DCF model assumes an 80 % equity ratio, 11.1 % WACC, 2 % terminal growth, and 14.8 % terminal EBIT margin. With these assumptions, the fair value lands at EUR 142 million or EUR 11.00 per share. 03) Margin expansion is the next phase – First Berlin expects the EBITDA margin to exceed 10 % already in 2026 (as already demonstrated now in Q1-2026), and that the gross margin rebounds from 25.1 % (2025E) to 30.1 % (2026E) and further up towards 33 % over time. Valuation check – current price (before open: market cap approx. EUR 77.3 million) With the Q1 figures and First Berlin's initiation, we now have three analyst houses with a consistent BUY recommendation: First Berlin (initiation, 7 May 2026) sets the price target at EUR 11.00 – an upside of approx. +77 % from the current level. NuWays AG (9 March 2026) has a price target of EUR 10.00, corresponding to an upside of approx. +61 %. Montega AG (9 March 2026) is at EUR 8-10, corresponding to an upside of approx. +29-61 %. Our own estimate is EUR 10-12 per share, corresponding to an upside of approx. +61-93 % from today's level. On the Sanity multiple (~4.2x EV/Sales), Cantourage's FY25 revenue of EUR 92.8 million would justify an EV of approx. EUR 390 million against the current market cap of EUR 77.3 million. Even with appropriate haircuts, the gap between the peer multiple and current pricing is still significant. Sources: - Cantourage Group SE Q1-2026 company announcement, 11 May 2026, 08:00 CET - First Berlin Equity Research, "Cantourage Group SE – More Than A German Flower Story", initiation of coverage, 7 May 2026 (BUY, price target EUR 11.00) - NuWays AG research update on Cantourage, 9 March 2026 (BUY, price target EUR 10.00) - Montega AG research update on Cantourage, 9 March 2026 (BUY, price target EUR 8-10) - Share price Cantourage Group SE (HIGH GR / ISIN DE000A3DSV01), Frankfurt Stock Exchange (market cap approx. EUR 77.3 million before open)·11.5.At the earnings call, it doesn't sound unlikely that management indirectly signals an expectation of an EBIT in the range of EUR 10 million for 2026 (no official guidance is given). For the sake of clarity, it is worth noting that EBIT and EBITDA at Cantourage are practically very close to each other. The company is debt-free (no significant interest expenses) and has an asset-light business model without heavy production facilities or large tangible assets to depreciate. In other words: The underlying operating performance is effectively the same (close to), regardless of whether you look at EBITDA or EBIT. In comparison, First Berlin estimates EUR 7.1 million in EBIT for 2026E. If Cantourage actually lands at EUR 10 million, we are talking about a 40 % overshoot of consensus – and that will undoubtedly trigger upward revisions of both price targets and estimates over the coming quarters. Such a result for 2026 is, in our eyes, very positive. It speaks directly to the case we have built: A solid and healthy growth business where the top line continues to grow nicely, while margins and the bottom line shift into a completely different league. This is a combination rarely found in the small/mid-cap segment – and certainly not in a market that is still associated with so much noise and misunderstanding as the European medical cannabis market. In other words, there are a lot of goodies in this paper, both fundamentally, valuation-wise, and strategically.
- ·7.5.Received this morning: "We are pleased to invite you to the Q1 2026 earnings call. During the event, Philip Schetter (CEO) and Monique Jaqqam (CFO) will provide an update on the company’s performance and key developments during the first three months of 2026. Participants will have the opportunity to ask questions and discuss opportunities, challenges, and trends in the rapidly evolving medical cannabis sector. We look forward to your participation. Date: May 11, 2026 Time: 9:00 am (CET) Duration: 1 hour Language: English" Exciting what the first 3 months of the year have brought for Cantourage Group.
- ·1.5.The M&A cycle in the European medical cannabis market is accelerating – and it significantly supports the Cantourage case. With Curaleaf's full acquisition of Four 20 Pharma on April 30, 2026, we have now seen two major M&A events in the European cannabis market in less than three months. It's worth noting, because it directly impacts the Cantourage case and the valuation discussion we've had here in the thread. The two transactions: 01) February 18, 2026 (closed April 15, 2026): Organigram (BAT-backed) → Sanity Group (Germany). Up to EUR 250 million incl. earnouts (EUR 113.4 million upfront + EUR 113.8 million earnout). Sanity had EUR 60 million revenue in 2025 and ~#2 market share in Germany. Implicit ~4.2x EV/Sales (cf. NuWays' research update of March 9, 2026). Wholesale + vertical platform play. 02) April 30, 2026: Curaleaf → Four 20 Pharma (Germany). Full acquisition after the original 55% agreement from 2022 (EUR 20 million for the first 55%). Amount for the remaining 45% not disclosed, but the structure speaks for itself: Curaleaf has waited four years to gain full control over an EU-GMP/GDP-licensed German producer with its own brand (420NATURAL). What the pattern tells us: Firstly, it has become unequivocal that the large international operators – Curaleaf and Organigram (with BAT as anchor) – are paying real money for access to EU-GMP/GDP-licensed German players. It is no longer a hypothesis; it is now observable in two deals in less than three months, and the BAT money through Organigram shows that tobacco capital is actively financing European consolidation – with patience and deep pockets. Secondly – and this is important for the Cantourage case – NuWays precisely points out that Cantourage's vertically integrated direct-to-pharmacy model structurally commands higher margins than Sanity's wholesale-heavy approach, which merely acts as an intermediary in the value chain. Sanity was traded at ~4.2x EV/Sales as a pure wholesale player. Cantourage, in comparison, delivered EUR 92.8 million in FY25 revenue (+82.3% y/y) and record EBITDA of EUR 5.7 million according to the company's own disclosure in April 2026 – and remains one of Germany's largest medical cannabis players with a significant lead over other players. It is a pan-European scale that neither Sanity nor Four 20 has in the same way. Each of the two M&A transactions precisely supports the Cantourage case: The international buyers are willing to pay solid multiples for players who – from a fundamental scale and positioning perspective – are less well-positioned than Cantourage itself. Valuation check at today's price (EUR 5.76 per share as of May 1, 2026, Xetra – market cap approx. EUR 72.8 million): NuWays AG price target: EUR 10 → upside approx. +74 % Montega AG price target: EUR 8-10 → upside approx. +39-74 % Our own estimate: EUR 10-12 → upside approx. +74-108 % Based on the Sanity multiple alone (~4.2x EV/Sales), Cantourage's FY25 revenue of EUR 92.8 million would justify an EV of approx. EUR 390 million – compared to a current market cap of approx. EUR 72.8 million. Even with haircuts for liquidity, free float, and the ongoing margin compression in the low-price segment in Germany, the gap between the peer multiple and Cantourage's current valuation remains significant. The consequence for our position: We have a Cantourage position from before, and the latest analyst coverage from both NuWays AG (BUY, price target EUR 10) and Montega AG (BUY, price target EUR 8-10), both published March 9, 2026, continues to indicate significant upside from today's level. With the Curaleaf/Four 20 deal as a second data point in the European M&A cycle within a short time, we believe that: 01) The floor under the Cantourage multiple is strengthened – the Sanity precedent is now confirmed by another transaction that validates EU-GMP/GDP-licensed German players as strategic targets. 02) The M&A optionality in Cantourage itself increases – not as our base case, but as a real tail upside. The large operators are actively acquiring in Germany, Cantourage is one of the few listed assets with the right profile and scale, and liquidity plus regulatory anchoring makes it a natural focal point. 03) Even without an M&A event, repricing to the peer multiple alone is sufficient to justify the price targets from NuWays/Montega – and potentially higher. We maintain our Cantourage position and see the continued M&A consolidation in the market as confirmation that both fundamental business development and the structural valuation opportunity point in the same direction.·1.5. · MuokattuSources (most reliable primary and secondary sources): - Curaleaf Inc. IR-release, 30. April 2026 (primary source): https://ir.curaleaf.com/2026-04-30-Curaleaf-Completes-Buyout-of-Remaining-Stake-in-Germanys-Four-20-Pharma - Organigram Global Inc. press release, 18. February 2026 (primary source, BusinessWire): https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260218837720/en/ - NuWays AG research update on Cantourage, 9. March 2026 (BUY, price target EUR 10) - Montega AG research update on Cantourage, 9. March 2026 (BUY, price target EUR 8-10) - Share price Cantourage Group SE (HIGH / HIGHG), Xetra, as of 1. May 2026: EUR 5.76 (market cap approx. EUR 72.8 million)
- ·17.3.Received just this morning below. Very positive, and truly a growth case, both top- and bottom-line. ______________ "Cantourage Group SE / Key word(s): Annual Results/Preliminary Results Cantourage Group SE publishes preliminary figures for 2025 – Revenue rises to EUR 92.8 million 17.03.2026 CET/CEST Cantourage Group SE (ISIN: DE000A3DSV01) today published preliminary consolidated figures for the 2025 financial year. During the reporting period, the company achieved a significant increase in both revenue and earnings, thereby continuing its dynamic growth trajectory as one of the leading European companies in the field of medical cannabis. Group revenue increased to EUR 92.8 million in the 2025 financial year (previous year: EUR 50.9 million), representing growth of 82.3% compared to the previous year. Preliminary EBITDA rose to EUR 5.7 million (previous year: EUR 3.8 million). International expansion supports sustainable earnings quality Strategic expansion into selected core European markets is increasingly contributing to improved revenue and earnings. Business in the United Kingdom continued to develop positively and accounted for more than 20% of total group revenue in the 2025 financial year. The positioning of Cantourage Group SE as a pan-European pharmaceutical company is showing increasingly positive effects. Economies of scale, optimized supply chains, and a diversified market presence are stabilizing operational development. “The European medical cannabis market is increasingly entering a new phase of growth. With our scalable sourcing and distribution platform, exclusive supplier partnerships, and regulatory expertise, we are ideally positioned to benefit from this development. Our focus is on meeting rising demand in our core markets, further expanding our capacities, and establishing Cantourage as one of the leading companies in all relevant European medical markets,” explains Philip Schetter, CEO of Cantourage Group SE."
- ·11.3.CANTOURAGE GROUP SE In light of the latest developments in the European cannabis industry, both NuWays and Montega, in connection with their coverage of Cantourage Group, have chosen to upgrade their price targets, which now lie in the range of EUR 8,00-10,00 per share. This reflects a potential price increase of approx. 70-90 % from the current level. The analysis coverage fully aligns with my own observations - and is possibly even a bit conservative compared to my personal estimate of EUR 10,00-12,00 per share at the current time. The analyses can be found at the following links: NuWays AG (published on 9. March 2026): https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/6640f5c21aec76e6d2026142/69afd9c9f30a9bf33e547314_Cantourage_Update.pdf Montega AG (published on 9. March 2026): https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/6640f5c21aec76e6d2026142/69aef696a4cfffe001fb1002_af05aa5c-e8db-4d6d-adda-ed4eb6810d16.pdf
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