{"id":86810,"date":"2025-04-11T13:13:46","date_gmt":"2025-04-11T10:13:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.fi\/blogi\/?p=86810"},"modified":"2025-04-11T14:40:48","modified_gmt":"2025-04-11T11:40:48","slug":"mita-taloudessa-oikein-tapahtuu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.fi\/blogi\/mita-taloudessa-oikein-tapahtuu\/","title":{"rendered":"Mit\u00e4 taloudessa oikein tapahtuu?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Jos ihmetytt\u00e4\u00e4 mit\u00e4 taloudessa nyt tapahtuu, niin ei h\u00e4t\u00e4\u00e4: et ole yksin. Sit\u00e4 ei tied\u00e4 kukaan muukaan. Seuraavaa k\u00e4\u00e4nnett\u00e4 ei osaa ennustaa Omahan oraakkeli Warren Buffett<\/a>, ei koko uransa p\u00f6rssikursseja analysoinut salkunhoitaja – saati suomalainen yksityissijoittaja.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joku voisi sanoa, ett\u00e4 seuraavan liikkeen tiet\u00e4\u00e4 vain Yhdysvaltain presidentti, mutta itse en olisi siit\u00e4k\u00e4\u00e4n varma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ei ole poikkeuksellista, ett\u00e4 p\u00f6rssikurssit<\/a> laskevat. Laskut kuuluvat sijoittamiseen siin\u00e4 miss\u00e4 nousutkin. Sen sijaan on poikkeuksellista, ett\u00e4 t\u00e4m\u00e4 k\u00e4sill\u00e4 oleva talouskriisi on t\u00e4ysin turha ja itseaiheutettu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yhdysvaltain talous on kasvanut viime vuosina reippaasti. Ty\u00f6tt\u00f6myysaste on matala ja ahkerasti kuluttavat kotitaloudet ovat pit\u00e4neet talouden py\u00f6r\u00e4t py\u00f6rim\u00e4ss\u00e4. Toki my\u00f6s valtionvelka on elvytyksen my\u00f6t\u00e4 kasvanut, mutta presidentti Trumpin viimeaikaiset toimet ovat silti vaikeasti j\u00e4rjell\u00e4 perusteltavissa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tullata vai eik\u00f6 tullata, siin\u00e4 vasta pulma.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Viime viikolla Trump julisti kaikille maailman maille 10 prosentin tullit Yhdysvaltoihin tuotaviin tuotteisiin. Sen lis\u00e4ksi osa \u201cYhdysvaltoja ep\u00e4reilusti kohdelleista maista\u201d sai viel\u00e4 omat lis\u00e4tullinsa t\u00e4h\u00e4n p\u00e4\u00e4lle. Muun muassa EU-maille tulliprosentiksi l\u00e4tk\u00e4istiin 20, Japanille 24 ja Vietnamille 46.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tulliuutinen j\u00e4risytti maailmantaloutta ja markkinareaktiot olivat voimakkaita. Osakekurssit tulivat alas niin Yhdysvalloissa, Euroopassa kuin Aasiassa. Kunnes t\u00e4m\u00e4n viikon keskiviikkona kuultiin uusia uutisia: Trump p\u00e4\u00e4tti yll\u00e4tt\u00e4en lyk\u00e4t\u00e4 tullien voimaantuloa 90 p\u00e4iv\u00e4ll\u00e4 ja antaa kauppakumppaneille mahdollisuuden neuvotteluihin.

Kuten arvata saattaa, tullien lykk\u00e4\u00e4ntyminen otettiin markkinoilla positiivisesti vastaan. S&P-indeksin eilinen p\u00e4iv\u00e4nousu oli sen 1950-luvulle ulottuvan historian kolmanneksi suurin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Voimme vain arvailla, mit\u00e4 tapahtuu seuraavaksi. Sen sijaan se on varmaa, ett\u00e4 ep\u00e4varmuus on tullut j\u00e4\u00e4d\u00e4kseen. Tullit ja Yhdysvaltain tavarakaupan alij\u00e4\u00e4m\u00e4 ovat toistuneet Trumpin puheissa 1980-luvulta l\u00e4htien. Onko h\u00e4n yht\u00e4kki\u00e4 nelj\u00e4nkymmenen vuoden j\u00e4lkeen valmis heitt\u00e4m\u00e4\u00e4n agendansa romukopaan? Sijoittaja ei voi muuta kuin yritt\u00e4\u00e4 siet\u00e4\u00e4 ep\u00e4varmuutta ja ihmetell\u00e4 yhden ihmisen diktatoorista valtaa p\u00f6rssikurssien heiluteluun.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


N\u00e4in\u00e4 turbulentteina aikoina on hyv\u00e4 muistuttaa itse\u00e4\u00e4n omasta sijoitussuunnitelmastaan ja muutamasta sijoittamisen perusperiaatteesta:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Oma sijoitushorisontti.<\/strong> Mit\u00e4 varten s\u00e4\u00e4st\u00e4t ja sijoitat? Onko sijoitushorisonttisi kymmeni\u00e4 vuosia, vai tarvitsetko rahat jo pian esimerkiksi asunnon k\u00e4sirahaan?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Tappiot realisoituvat vain myym\u00e4ll\u00e4.<\/strong> Onko sinulla aikaa odottaa romahduksen yli?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Historia ei ole tae tulevasta, mutta kaikista aiemmista p\u00f6rssiromahduksista on toivuttu ajan saatossa.<\/strong> Voisiko aika parantaa n\u00e4m\u00e4kin haavat?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. Jos olet kuukausis\u00e4\u00e4st\u00e4j\u00e4, voit onnitella itse\u00e4si!<\/strong> Olethan vapautunut ajoittamisen tuskasta kokonaan. Kuukausis\u00e4\u00e4st\u00e4misen<\/a> hienous on s\u00e4\u00e4nn\u00f6llisyys, ja kurssien tullessa alas, voi lohduttautua sill\u00e4, ett\u00e4 samalla summalla saa enemm\u00e4n rahasto-osuuksia.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. Lopun lohdutukseksi voi todeta, ett\u00e4 samassa veneess\u00e4 ollaan.<\/strong> P\u00f6rssiromahduksen tuntevat salkuissaan niin suomalaiset yksityissijoittajat, Trumpin l\u00e4hipiirin teknomiljard\u00f6\u00f6rit, kuin yhdysvaltalaiset el\u00e4kes\u00e4\u00e4st\u00e4j\u00e4t. P\u00f6rssit ovat reagoineet voimakkaasti kautta maailman, eik\u00e4 hajautetullakaan salkulla ole ollut turvassa.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    T\u00e4ss\u00e4 esitetty ei ole eik\u00e4 sit\u00e4 tule k\u00e4sitt\u00e4\u00e4 kehotukseksi merkit\u00e4, ostaa tai myyd\u00e4 arvopapereita. Sijoittajan tulee sijoitusp\u00e4\u00e4t\u00f6ksi\u00e4 tehdess\u00e4\u00e4n perustaa p\u00e4\u00e4t\u00f6ksens\u00e4 omaan arvioonsa sek\u00e4 ottaa huomioon omat tavoitteensa ja taloudellinen tilanteensa. Sijoittamiseen ja rahoitusv\u00e4lineisiin liittyy aina riskej\u00e4. Ennen kaupank\u00e4ynnin aloittamista sijoittajan tulee ymm\u00e4rt\u00e4\u00e4 kaupank\u00e4yntiin liittyv\u00e4t riskit ja tuotteeseen liittyv\u00e4t ehdot.<\/em> Sijoittajan tulee huomioida, ett\u00e4 historiallinen tai simuloitu kehitys ei ole tae tulevasta tuotosta. Sijoitusten arvo ja tuotto voi muuttua ja sijoitetun p\u00e4\u00e4oman voi menett\u00e4\u00e4 jopa kokonaan.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Jos ihmetytt\u00e4\u00e4 mit\u00e4 taloudessa nyt tapahtuu, niin ei h\u00e4t\u00e4\u00e4: et ole yksin. Sit\u00e4 ei tied\u00e4 kukaan muukaan. Seuraavaa k\u00e4\u00e4nnett\u00e4 ei osaa ennustaa Omahan oraakkeli Warren Buffett, ei koko uransa p\u00f6rssikursseja analysoinut salkunhoitaja – saati suomalainen yksityissijoittaja. Joku voisi sanoa, ett\u00e4 seuraavan liikkeen tiet\u00e4\u00e4 vain Yhdysvaltain presidentti, mutta itse en olisi siit\u00e4k\u00e4\u00e4n varma. Ei ole poikkeuksellista, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68628,"featured_media":85879,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4412],"tags":[4879],"class_list":["post-86810","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ajankohtaista","tag-korostetut"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogi.nordnet.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/03\/Jasmin-Hamid-1200x430-Keksi-Agency-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogi.nordnet.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/03\/Jasmin-Hamid-1200x430-Keksi-Agency-150x54.png 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